Monday Dec 5, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report.
Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report. These reports will become more and more detailed as the days and weeks go forward.
IMPORTANT NOTICES:
This week is a big week for me – I am going to go to patent phase. I have six months of proven predictability of over 90%. My process is proprietary and qualifies for patent. The charting for members will become much more involved over the coming weeks (proprietary details). Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.
My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures sometime in Jan 2017. My sub service w incl 24hr crude oil trade room.
Today all services transition from free inaugural to subscriber only access.
All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions).
How My Algorithm Works and Availability:
I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on individual merit) such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and other mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo integration – only math. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered as one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.
My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. I am not an automated bot or high frequency type algorithm. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story..
FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations
IMPORTANT NOTE: If you do not invest the time to review at least the last few of my oil reports on this blog, our website (as it applies to my algorithm) and my Twitter feed (which all in will take you at most an hour to catch up and also understand how my algorithm works) this report will be of no good to you. The reports are a running story and just one post won’t do it – there is zero benefit. ESPECIALLY with the member only charting upcoming as they will be much more involved.
Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 51.29 (12:50 AM ET Dec 5, 2016). Some thoughts that may help advance you trading edge;
Currently trading at 51.29 – crude held its current intra trading range (tight on fibs) 50.44 – 51.75. Those are your intra-day levels to watch. Above 51.75 watch for a break-out (best to let it retest support at 51.75 before going long and best to let it test resistance at 50.44 if it breaks down below that before going short). You can use your indicators below (on the charting) for intra snipes.
Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:
Your primary pivot areas for swing trading crude are at the multi week low around 42.46 (bottom yellow line – be careful with misreading the white numbers on side of chart in purple they don’t represent price at that level) and the top side of your mutli week trading range is around 51.90. Shorting below 51.90 considering crude oil recent rally does not represent good probability. Long at the bottom of the range represents excellent probability.
And then you have a diagonal uptrending wedge you can follow also swings – your probability of success goes way up taking long positions at bottom of this wedge and short positions at top of wedge (however, depending on your time-frame considering oil is in a rally a short may not be the best play here). You as a trader have to determine your time-frame and trade accordingly.
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
At time of writing there is a diagonal trend-line being tested. If you are trading on a tight intra-basis these are highly predictable indicators.
https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo/status/805697072842166272
200 MA on 1 HR
Crude oil has reacted negatively to the 200 MA on the 1 HR in recent month trading. As long as it is above the 200 MA we consider it bullish.
Fibonacci Levels:
The fib level is important above 51.75 because that puts the trading price in to possible break-out territory. Your full extension above there is 55.99 on the fibs. A break down of 50.44 and you would want to see if the next at 49.12 holds and so – on. In a break down you want to wait for next Fib level to hold and if triggering a long trade wait for price – trigger – power – trade. In other words, wait for a re-test of the support or if it doesn’t retest wait for the price to prove itself by being higher than the most recent high on the 1 min, 3 min, 5 min etc intra trading. If you do not know how to trigger trades based on price – trigger – power – trade disciplines it is best to research online or sign up here or somewhere for some private coaching. This discipline with intra-day trading is critical.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple).
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come of previous time / price cycles). Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Time / Price Cycles:
https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo/status/802046813196820480
The most recent time / price cycle terminated Dec 1 at 7:00 AM and we seen what price action has done since.
Right now crude is in break-out and there is a strong absence of significant time / price cycle terminations on the chart.
Some are as follows; Dec 5 6:30 AM 1/5, Dec 9 3:30 AM 2/5, Dec 12 7:30 AM 2/5, Mar 20 5 / 5. The rating 1 to 5 is for significance – the higher the number the more significant. If you review my twitter feed and my story on the website you will find these to be near 100%, in that the price of crude moves out of its current trading range to the upside or down. Our traders use these as a primary indicator for risk – reward. Be cautious of week time / price cycle terminations (don’t give them a lot of credence). As more time / price cycle terminations are calculated with intra-day pricing I will update members.
Algo Trend-Lines:
https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo/status/804612059144941568
If you look closely at this chart you will see clearly how the price of oil reacts to alpha algo lines as support, resistance and important inflection points. Price gets aggressive when they are breached. Here again, the thicker they are the more important they are.
Current Algo Targets:
All current targets are soft targets. In other words, when the price of crude changes trading ranges it takes time for the algorithm to calculate new targets. Early on in the price and time cycle you will find the probabilities much less and as time goes on in the time / price cycle the algorithm will give you much higher probabilities of targets being hit. There are usually a number of targets published and each is given a probability of a hit (how many times out of 100). You can use these targets to trade against and determine your risk -reward accordingly. Here again I recommend you review my Twitter feed, my story and my recent blog posts to see how I publish targets along with probabilities (more information below on algo targets).
Below are this weeks targets. They are extremely soft because the new alpha algo targets are in early progression in this new time / price cycle. Use extreme caution until the targets become more clear – Updates will follow as this time cycle progresses.
Dec 6 – 48.30 (17%), 51.34 (24%), 52.38 (15%)
Dec 7 – 48.34 (16%), 51.57 (22%), 52.86 (12%)
Dec 9 – 48.87 (14%), 52.30 (19%), 53.47 (8%)
Intra-Day Quadrants:
Intra day quadrants are the intra day price action of crude oil. About 90% of the time I can publish these for you and you can use them as intra day sniping levels. However, right now because crude is in a break-out these are not predictable. I expect to have these for you Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest when the price and time cycle confirms here.
Indicators:
As I explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo algo and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and why they move from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading oil.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance and price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the trading room and reviewing my Twitter feed posts and previous blogs will help you with how to use these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on You Tube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.
See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money. We also recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a revamp (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically.
I suppose also when the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo/status/804275876942598144
Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets.