EPIC the Oil Algorithm Chart Report Tuesday May 23, 2017 (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC – $USO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $UCO $SCO $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP
Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algo and I am one of six Algorithmic Charting services in development at Compound Trading.
NOTICES:
This Oil Algorithm Report Includes three scenarios of trade. One for lower channel trade, one for continues upward trend trade and another for OPEC driven upward trending channel trade.
I have left the most recent reporting in this post for context.
OFFICIAL LAUNCH JULY 1: Update – This may be moved up to June 12! Limited beta subscriptions capped at fifty members. 24-Hr Oil Trading Room $USOIL $WTI #Oil (EPIC THE OIL ALGORITHM). Member beta discount until subscriptions sold out only. If room is ready prior to July 1 (and it likely will – it will open early). Unfortunately no holds – first come, first serve. To register click here: https://compoundtrading.com/product/fx-usoil-epic-oil-algorithm/
As a result of the new room opening soon, you can expect significant changes to my charting over the coming near weeks.
Also, we are currently testing charting security so if a chart does not come up for you please let us know.
There is a Webinar in the trading room scheduled for 10:00 AM ET for the EIA report FYI.
Wednesday May 17, 2017 EPIC the Oil Algorithm Webinar is important for members to review.
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available.
PATENT PHASE: I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.
24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures in 2017 and will have 24 hr crude oil trade room.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed and this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am represented on and used on a traditional trading chart as one would normally use as a probability indicator. The goal is to provide our trader’s with an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in our new 24 hour oil trading room).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. Questions to; [email protected], message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.
Visit this link for more information about my oil algorithm development, this link explains how our algorithmic charting is done, this YouTube video explains in summary how my algorithm works https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUNyxFoXJp8 this link for more information about our algorithmic stock charting models and what makes them different than most.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED (TRADING ROOM), ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND ABSOLUTE TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:
Below is the link for the live chart version of EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart for Tuesday May 23, 2017 (You will be able to clock on lower right share button beside thumbs up button and then click on “make it mine”):
May 23, 2017
The new charting includes a change to color for the arrows that depict the channels. We have changed the color from orange arrows to purple as many were thinking the old channel arrows could be support or resistance. They are simply to note where the channels are.
The static charts show three potential channel trades. The one is a lower trending channel, which is the most natural for the machines because trade should have come off at the resistance (grey thick line) but did not and traded the last 24 hours or so in an anomaly pattern (you will notice the machines did not turn on and trade languished). This scenario is unlikely with OPEC on deck but would be the favored scenario if OPEC wasn’t manipulating trade scenarios.
The other scenario is a continued uptrending channel (essentially continuing the existing channel trend upward). This scenario is possible with OPEC on deck.
And the final scenario is another uptrending channel scenario that is just higher on the chart or more bullish and this would be the channel that OPEC will be attempting to manipulate.
Remember the significant cluster above that was noted in yesterday’s reporting – it is not noted on the current chart.
The algo targets are simply best guesses because trade is not in a natural state this week.
Previous Reporting (for context):
We are testing new chart security so if the charts below do not load the algorithm please let us know.
Below is the link for the live viewer only version of EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart for Monday May 22, 2017 (You will only be able to view in viewer – hit play to bring up to minute. You will not be able to edit this chart):
Below is the live link to the live charting that if it works you will be able to edit. If it does not work please let us know and we will send you another link:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/oUGqSvbc/
Below are the static charts for this reporting period:
Current trading range with option for upward channel and downward channel. EPIC the Oil Algorithm Chart May 22, 2017 227 AM FX $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OOTT #Algo
Upward channel option with blue arrow representing start of resistance cluster 52.70 intra. EPIC the Oil Algorithm Chart May 22, 2017 229 AM FX $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OOTT #Algo
Considerations for trade on May 22, 2017:
OPEC is meeting this week. Be very cautious. There will be anomalies in the charting.
There is a long weekend coming. Holidays can create problems with the algorithms (agreement between). It can take a day or two either side of a holiday for the machines to sort out alpha.
At time of publication trade is right at support and resistance (grey line).
Not far above (thick blue line with blue arrow) is the start of the resistance area that seen oil come off very hard last time it tested this resistance cluster. Remember, the goal of OPEC is to get trade above the resistance area.
There is a choice on the chart for an upward trending channel and a downward trending channel. They are marked with orange arrows.
Here is the email sent to members earlier today;
Oil Traders
There is a complete report coming out around 2 am ET (approx), until then the following;
– The upper resistance of broad quadrant trading range is being tested (thick grey line). Remember there is a variance, a testing area of about .22 – .25 cents on upside of that resistance.
– When our traders short at resistance it is with tight stops. Especially when trade is in upward trending channel. Upward trending channel = highest probability trade is long at channel support and/or horizontal support. Highest probability is not short. Highest probability short is at top of channel or horizontal resistance in a downward trending channel. So when you trading against highest probability we keep our stops tight. When trading with probability we loosen up our stops a bit.
– The cluster we ran in to at prior highs is once again also approaching. Major resistance starts at 52.70.
– Between current quadrant resistance and the resistance cluster that starts around 52.70 we would not be surprised if market takes trade to underside of cluster (around 52.70 on FX $USOIL $WTI
– OPEC meetings are very likely to create any number of anomalies in trade. The complete report tonight will assist.
– The main resistance points of cluster are approximately on intra 52.70, 53.70, 54.80, 55.15, 59.78.
– When we short at res and trade fails we flip long and stay in it until next res is hit (in an uptrending channel). Your profit is being on right side of the trade in uptrending channels and downtrending channels. So profit is in long at bottom of channel in uptrending channel and short at resistance in downtrending channel. Contrary trades have to be with very tight stops.
– Trade is currently bullish – do not fight the trend.
– Full report out tonight.
Multi Week Trading Range for Swing Trading:
Note: Be careful with the prices you see in the purple boxes on the right of the chart – they do not line up on chart for price action (they are for indicators).
Trade the ranges noted above.
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
The diagonal trend-lines are marked on main chart above.
Conventional Charting Observations:
Conventional Oil Chart – testing 100 MA with red resistance line overhead. May 22, 256 AM FX $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OOTT #Algo
Per recent reports:
There are a cluster of resistance points in oil overhead and the charts below show this best:
Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 201 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/mOQxIWO7-USOIL-WTI-Simple-Lines-Expose-Areas-of-Resistance/
Notice how when the daily chart is opened, the simple lines extend to current day trade.
Daily chart view. Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 213 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Daily chart view magnified. Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 217 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Possible downtrending channel due to trendlines extending from previous time cycles. Crude algo intra work sheet 226 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
If this occurs, the white arrow shows top of downtrending channel forming and lower white arrow show possible support to channel (but not as strong as the others because it is from current time cycle unlike the others) and if price loses lower white arrow the channel downward could continue. Pink arrow shows the end of the pinch should price trade between the two white arrows to end of wedge.
Careful 50 MA pinch on 100 MA. SQZMOM up as is MACD but Stock RSI at top. Crude algo intra work sheet 233 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Careful with that 50 MA crosses the 100 MA – you want those opposite to be bullish. Careful price stays above them also. Price above 200 MA. Stoch RSI at top so it would make sense for it to come off soon.
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable. Crude is currently trending toward a target (red circles on chart) Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants (white dotted lines):
Intra-day trading quadrants are available on all time – cycles and all of them are not detailed on this charting. The charting above represents the 30 minute trading quadrants. If you require tighter time-frames please email us and we will update charting for the time cycle you are looking for.
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
PS If you are not yet reviewing the daily post market trading results blog posts, please do so, they are on the blog daily and often there is information that also may assist your trading. Trade room transcripts (for example) may review topics pertinent to your trading.
Article topics: EPIC, Oil, Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Fibonacci
