Crypto the Bitcoin Algorithm Charting Model Newsletter Tuesday April 17, 2018. Charts for $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC.X $ETH $LTC $XRP #Bitcoin
Hello! My name is Crypto the Bitcoin Algo. Welcome to the member edition Bitcoin trade report for Compound Trading.
Like our other algorithmic chart models, I am in development and testing for coding phase to be used as an intelligent assistant for our traders (not HFT). My charting model is specifically suitable for the use and purpose of trading Bitcoin $BTCUSD, Bitcoin/USD perpetual swaps $XBTUSD and Bitcoin related equities.
Note: The $XBTUSD model is built on a chart from BitMEX. Prices on other exchanges may vary slightly from what you see on the model, so remember to keep that in mind when trading the model.
Notices:
- More extensive chart models for $BTCUSD, $ETHUSD, $XRPUSD, $LTCUSD and others (such as a few bitcoin related equities) will be featured in future reporting.
- Join us in our private Crypto Trading room on discord!
- For newer users – read the blog post about how to trade Bitcoin here.
Primary Methods of Bitcoin Trade:
The primary method of trade we have found works with the most predictability is to wait for bitcoin to breach the upper right wall of a quadrant (the orange, blue or grey diagonal dotted lines – the thicker lines are more significant as they represent wider time-frames) and confirm over the next horizontal Fibonacci resistance. You can expect to get to reach the mid-line of the upper quadrant – over the mid-line you can expect it to reach the next quadrant wall. Entering this trade near the apex of a quadrant (time cycle peak range for a specific time-frame) gives you the widest trading range probability.
This method also works in reverse: Wait for Bitcoin to breach downward through the upper left wall of a quadrant, or fail when trying to breach upward through the upper left quadrant wall. Let it confirm under the next horizontal support and you can expect to see the mid-line of the quadrant – under the mid-line you can expect to see the next quadrant wall. Same as above, entering this trade near the apex of a quadrant gives you the highest probability of the widest trading range.
Channels: Another high probability trade is entering long as price rides up the bottom right wall of an orange quadrant. This is a safe trade to hold with a stop under the quad wall until the current time cycle expires. This trade works in reverse as well. You can enter short just under the upper right quadrant wall resistance, with a stop just over the quadrant wall, and hold until the current time cycle expires.
Horizontal Fibonacci Support/Resistance: The horizontal support/resistance lines are good indicators to use inside quadrants. The light green 0.5 Fibonacci line and the grey 1.0 or 0 Fibonacci levels (mid-lines) are the most significant. Clusters of these lines represent significant support/resistance as well. Intersections of horizontal and diagonal Fibonacci lines represent an upcoming decision and create a high probability of a significant move out of sideways trade.
Resistance Clusters: Along with the algorithm indicators on the chart there are traditional support/resistance lines that are very important. When these lines converge volatility tends to increase. Under the cluster is a high probability short. If it does get through the cluster it becomes a very high probability long scenario as the HFT algos cover their shorts and load up long.
Targets: Red circles on charting. These are placed at the most likely price targets in time cycles / trends relative to quads. These are still in very early stage of development/testing and should be used for observation only at this point. Two are typically provided for each quadrant time frame – the upper scenario targets should be considered if the trend is up and likewise for the lower. I do not recommend entering trades based on these targets. Also, at times the mid quad support / resistance line is highlighted with a target if trade is not extremely bullish or bearish.
Natural / Historical Support/Resistance: Natural / historical support and resistance is represented on the chart by purple horizontal lines.
Conventional Charting: Conventional charting should be weighed against the model(s) with all trade decisions.
In summary, our first generation Bitcoin algorithm chart model uses the following indicators (listed from most predictable to least in terms of win rate):
- Trading range created by long term algorithmic modeled quadrant support and resistance (blue dotted lines)
- Trading range between buy/sell trigger levels (grey/green arrows and solid lines)
- Directional channels formed by long term algorithmic modeled support and resistance
- Horizontal Fibonacci support and resistance (multi-colored horizontal lines)
- Conventional Natural support and resistance (purple horizontal lines)
- Long term conventional trend lines (red diagonal lines)
- Conventional MA’s
Bitcoin Algorithm Live Charting Link:
Algorithm model on the Daily Bitcoin Chart: Click link to open initial chart viewer screen, then share button at bottom right of screen, then make it mine, then double click on chart body to hide or reveal indicators at bottom of chart (MACD etc).
Bitcoin up against 50 MA resistance test and near quad wall TL test.
Per recent;
Bitcoin Daily chart grind down channel hitting mid quad targets. Short side wins. Apr 7 339 PM. $BTC $XBTUSD #bitcoin
Per last report, bearish short side winning as it slowly grinds down this channel hitting the mid quad decision area targets. Bearish until it changes and proves out upside quad wall breach. #Swingtrading Bitcoin down this move has been a fantastic trade. Congrats to the bears here!
Bitcoin News: No, India Has Not Banned Bitcoin Trading, Government Confirms $BTC #Bitcoin #India https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/04/07/no-india-not-banned-bitcoin-trading-government-confirms/
Per recent;
Bitcoin rejected at 200 MA is very bearish, watching support tests for bounce or down. $BTC #Bitcoin
Per last post it was trending up quad wall trend-line but 200 MA sent it down outside of quad diagonal trend-line. Watching for possible bounce.
Observations / Chart Indicators: Current Area of Trade:
April 7, 2018 – Bitcoin is obviously trading in downward channel on daily chart and until that becomes divergent it is a short. The daytrading model has been functioning well for both sides of trade. When divergence shows I will be alerting that aggressively.
Bitcoin Stoch RSI is trending up signalling new buy flow however MACD and SQZMOM indecisive. $BTC #indicators
Trade bias should be short until all three indicators represent consistent upward trade beyond resistance points.
Per recent;
Crypto $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $LTC #cryptocurrency #technicalanalysis
Crypto $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $LTC #cryptocurrency #technicalanalysis pic.twitter.com/qL7wvBQV4O
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) February 12, 2018
Bitcoin MACD trending bullish with Stochastic RSI nearing top of range. $BTC $XBTUSD #Bitcoin
Per recent;
The squeeze momentum indicator and MACD on daily chart are still trending up but the Stochastic RSI is high and looks ready to turn FYI.
Per recent;
The squeeze momentum indicator direction trend should be in consideration for direction IMO on daily chart. $BTC $XBTUSD Trade against its trend at your peril (historically speaking and specifically on daily).
Key Bitcoin Buy / Sell Price Trigger Levels:
Mar 26 – 4956.2, 5319, 5639, 5826, 6860, 7880, 8198, 9827.60, 11486.20, 11689, 12844, 13783
Bitcoin Trading Plan (misc notes as applicable)
Per recent;
April 7 – Mirroring what the charting and notes above is saying… until significant divergence to charting occurs to upside I’m forced to remain bearish bias and daytrade the 30 minute model primarily.
Per recent;
200 MA test on daily chart failed with possible bounce on daytrading 30 min chart…. watching… but it is under pressure.
Per recent;
March 19 – Current trade bias is long to target concluding at upward target along TL quad trendline. Watch 200 MA test and mid quad resistance test. 9757 Apr 7 target on model.
Per recent;
From here to 13700 range it seems without significant resistance. Trading bias is bullish between moving averages on chart (horizontal lines).
Daytrading Bitcoin
April 16 – Bitcoin coming in to price target on our daytrading model. $BTC #Bitcoin $XBT
Per recent;
April 7 – Bitcoin 5.81% Daytrading 30 Min Chart above 200 MA upside target preferred. Consolidating. Apr 0.33% 7 256 PM. $BTC $XBTUSD #bitcoin
The daytrading model is showing consolidation here but in no way should a short time-frame model form a trader’s bias going forward – short term bias, but not trend directional bias.
Per recent:
Mar 26 – Per above.
Bitcoin has 200 MA on 30 Min. Bullish bias to target. Bitcoin Chart Model – Daytrading 30 Min Chart. Mar 19 917 PM. $BTC $XBTUSD #bitcoin
Recent Bitcoin Real-Time Trade Alerts / Charting Set-up Alerts
If you are reviewing this newsletter (as a historical unlocked post) and not a member of our service and would like a tour of our private discord server (trading chat / alerts etc) or our private Twitter member $BTC alert feed let us know. You can check out our call rate for yourself. Transparent trading is important to us.
Bitcoin coming in to a possible buy trigger zone on daytrading chart. $BTC #Bitcoin
https://twitter.com/BTCAlerts_CT/status/978317583987429376
$BTC Bitcoin popped now 400 points since alert of support. Not a bad RR here for long test. If nothing else a day trade.
https://twitter.com/BTCAlerts_CT/status/978397655796801538
Bitcoin time price cycle peak coming April 7 – path of least resistance down target but my bias is to up. Trade price. We start trading live again Monday so I’ll broadcast our trading group moves live for this setup. $BTC #Bitcoin #trading #crypto (alerted in private member Discord server)
And the result…. price is dumping in to lower target identified on trade alert…. intrad-day getting close. Charting wins. Trader bias not so good on this one.
Ethereum Basic Algorithm Charting Model on Daily Time Frame:
April 17 – $ETH about to test 50 MA for 623.07 price target May 5
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSD/TYm85p9O-ETH-about-to-test-50-MA-for-623-07-price-target-May-5/
Per previous
April 7 – Ethereum chart has consolidation also on Daily. MACD SQZMOM indecisive. $ETH
This is on watch now for a turn. Quad wall is nearing. Short side bias until chart says otherwise (symmetry breaks, upside quad wall TL is broke, MACD on daily crosses up, etc).
Ethereum News: Chile’s National Energy Commission Launches Ethereum-Based Pilot For Energy Data $ETH #Ethereum https://cointelegraph.com/news/chiles-national-energy-commission-launches-ethereum-based-pilot-for-energy-data
Per recent;
March 26 – $ETH Ethereum trading 477.50 near mid quad support test. Defined channel forming. Lost 200 MA which is technically bearish…. but this is crypto.
Indicators do not say long yet, but I can’t help but imagine a bounce soon. My trader bias is up soon…. but trade price and let’s see because crypto issues are in a downtrend.
Per recent;
$ETH Ethereum -0.85% algorithmic charting model – $ETH has lost 200 MA but upside target in play.
If BTC gets the jump the chart suggests is possible then ETH should easily hit the upside target and get a jump further imo
all based on confirmed price action of course…. but I think RR is to bull side now
Litecoin Basic Algorithm Charting Model
April 16 – $LTC Long side trade setip going well at channel support with 50 MA res test on deck. MACD trending.
April 7 – Per previous report – Litecoin will have to bounce near here if chart structure to remain in place. $LTC
Trading View chart notes copied:
Litecoin will have to bounce near here if chart structure to remain in place. $LTC
If it doesn’t bounce near up channel support (yellow diagonal line) it could run another trading quad area down very easily.
I’m bias a bounce but… price action should rule and don’t forget the 200 MA is overhead if it does bounce. That will become significant upside resistance test if price gets there.
Huge risk reward advantage here for bull side trade.
For more detail on the time cycle peaks for your trade, price targets, and support and resistance points relating to your personal trading plan contact me with any questions you have.
Best and peace!
PS Remember to trade price – if the trade goes against you it is always better to take a small loss than be married to a bad chart / stock.
Monday I will be live broadcasting this trading set-up and other chart set-ups documenting my process in detail for review w/ daily PL’s, video, charting set-ups and alerts.
Per recent;
March 26 – $LTC Litecoin trading 144.71 testing 200 MA on daily and near channel support. Expect a bounce.
At some point between where it is trading today and the channel bottom a long side should put out a decent risk reward advantage. As with all other crypto – it is crypto so trade price confirmations and watch each support and resistance test for confirmations as you go.
$LTC Litecoin trading 144.71 testing 200 MA on daily and near channel support. Expect a bounce.
Primary buy sell triggers on Litecoin daily chart:
475.00
381.00
287.00
192.00
98.00
Ripple Basic Algorithm Charting Model $XRP
April 17 – $XRP following underside of 200 MA
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/gNcO0kN6-XRP-following-underside-of-200-MA/
April 7 – Ripple trade remains non existent on Daily chart. $XRP
Per recent:
$XRP Ripple downside trend looking more probable than up in to time cycle peak.
Per recent;
$XRP 1.64 upside target scenario if a bull run turns. If not watch out below.
< End of report >
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Post topics; Crypto, chart, $BTCUSD, $XBTUSD, $BTC.X, $ETH, $LTC, $XRP, Bitcoin, trade
