Good morning swing traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading memo for the week of Jan 30, 2017!
Don’t hesitate to email us at [email protected] anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private message Curtis in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.
Notices:
One new chart added for today and there will be more through the week this week. The rest are from the previous report. The new add is Oak Tree Capital $OAK.
It is important to note the other charts below have not been updated since being first inserted here, so be sure to look up most recent trading ranges before considering trades.
This Swing Report is in Development (as with $VIX, $SPY algos) – But We’re Getting There.
Below you will find my top ten picks for swing trading in the first quarter of 2017 (plus a few bonus picks I will be swing trading). I am currently in the middle of compiling the due diligence and charting set-ups for publication for over fifty charts so this list may grow considerably – I am excited about 2017.
As mentioned previous, I will also include our regular algorithmic modeling equities relating to Oil, Gold, Miners, Silver, US Dollar, Volatility and SPY in my 2017 reports (in addition to the ten others listed below) FYI.
In my reports I will focus on both long term holds and swing trading these equities with an intent to try and time the highs and lows (pull-backs) as best as possible. I know many propose that picking the highs and lows isn’t the best method – but to be frank it has served me well over the years.
Also, I should mention, that any of the stocks below that do not trade well (or as planned) I will switch out with another choice as the weeks progress. But the intent is to hold ten investment / swing stocks (per below) and also swing trade in and out of the regular algorithmic modeling equities I mentioned also.
Oh, and the updates will be coming out more often than weekly also (thought I should mention that).
First step is to get charts out with levels I will be trading. Then I’ll put out more DD on each also.
I am going to start below with ones that are most timely and build this out from there (in order of priority for my personal trades and what I see going on in the market).
The Ten Swing Trades I am going to focus on in the First Quarter of 2017 are as follows:
1 – Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL, $GOOG
We like this chart. Watch for an upside break out of the triangle. The principles apply the same to $GOOG and $GOOGL charts fyi. Also, watch the MACD close, it looks primed for a move. Earnings are Thursday. If price breaks to downside I will update with levels to watch. Also, the is a chart below that shows upside target.
Fibonacci to watch, triangle, MACD, Break to upside possible in Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL
Link to live $GOOGL chart in TradingView.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GOOGL/isvDnbTQ-Swing-Trading-Member-Chart-GOOGL/
1003.17 Price Target in 2017 with upside break-out. Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL
Technically, the price target (should price break to upside) is 1003.17 before Jan 29 2018.
1003.17 Price Target in 2017 with upside break-out. Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL
2 – Amazon $AMZN
My fourth priority is Amazon. I don’t want to over simplify this trade – but the bottom line is I’m looking for a pull-back and an entry as close to that 200 day (pink line with green arrow) as possible. I don’t think this stock will stop anytime soon. DD to follow soon.
$AMZN Swing
3 – Juno $JUNO
4 – CombiMatrix Corp $CBMX
My second priority is $CBMX. I am already in this swing and plan to enter in dips at the diagonal trend line (blue). Initial target area is around 5.57 with much greater potential upside. The Trump factor may cause this to come off a bit so my bias is toward late spring for first price target.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CBMX/qtdyUyY0-CBMX-Swing-Trade/
$CBMX Swing Trade
5 – OakTree Capital $OAK
Oaktree Capital Group, LLC (OAK) today announced that it will report fourth quarter and full year 2016 financial results prior to the opening of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, February 7, 2017.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oaktree-schedules-fourth-quarter-full-133000267.html
Was trading at 37.57 – 38.00 when we originally started to look at it, currently trades at 41.65.
42.71 – 43.50 is our short term swing target (less than 3 months).
49.58 is our 2017 target. No target date.
Our traders will be watching earnings (much like we did with Google last week and we will be doing with Amazon this week). Pending earnings and price action this will be when we enter a trade. Some of our swing traders have obviously seen decent gains since we first put this on our swing trading list a number of weeks back (good timing actually), but our traders have not taken a position yet.
$OAK – OakTree Capital Group
Oaktree Capital Trading View Live Charting:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OAK/w2CBerv2-Swing-Trading-Newsletter-Oaktree-Capital-OAK/
6 – VanEck Vectors Russia ETF $RSX
7 – BOFI Holdings $BOFI
8 – Sunoco Logistics Partners $SXL
9 – US Silica Holdings $SLCA
My fifth priority is $SLCA. Again, another simple chart and it will require some patience. I see a pull-back coming and huge upside under the Trump inertia in to summer. I am looking for a pull-back to the 50 day (yellow arrow) or the 100 day preferably (blue arrow). If it gets away on me I’ll likely chase it and scale in 1/5th at a time.
$SCLA Swing Trade
10 – EOG Resources $EOG
The Bonus Picks for 2017 I will be Swing Trading also:
1 – $GREK Global Greece ETF
2 – $TRCH Torchlight Energy
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TRCH/xxpZ4uPM-TRCH-Swing-Trade/
$TRCH Swing Trade
3 – $NG Nova Gold
The first swing of 2017 I will be entering (likely today) is NovaGold. First target is 6.46 area and second target is 7.30 area. It is currently trading at 5.10. It’s full extension is over 8.50.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NG/1Sz7RDKg-NG-Novagold-Swing-Trade/
$NG Novagold Swing Trade
Our Standard Algorithmic Modeling Securities I will be providing Swing Trade levels for are:
1 – $SPY
2 – $VIX
My seventh priority is the VIX. I see a pull-back in the market coming and a lift in VIX. The primary trade I am looking for is actually a short in the VIX when it gets upside it’s bolllinger band (it’s a little more complicated than that – specifically with timing and I will be putting an alert out when I do it anyway) – I’ll also play some short term longs in $TVIX or $UVXY.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/t6YF7SQY-VIX-Short-Swing-Trade-Above-Bollinger-Band/
$VIX Short Swing Trade Above Bollinger Band
3 – $DXY
4 – $SLV
5 – $GLD – Gold (and miner’s $GDX)
My third priority on this list are the miner’s – $GDX and leveraged friends. This one is risky but comes with large gains if miner’s get moving and price breaks in to next quadrant above the yellow one outlined on the chart below. And for the risk taker it can be traded with leveraged ETN’s. There are inherent risks however; one is that price is not at bottom of the trading quadrant so an entry here is not ideal and the obvious issue is the Trump factor.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8QOM4r5s/
$GDX Swing Trade
6 – $USOIL / $WTI
In overnight lab work our developers established a diagonal trendline (blue line in chart that has a blue arrow pointing at it) that has established itself as strong support. If you take a swing trade against that support (as as close to it as possible) then look to the upside of that white dotted arrow line as your target long. Ratchet up stops there.
Crude algo intra work sheet 208 AM Jan 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Email or DM me on Twitter anytime with thoughts or questions!
I will be updating regularly now – I need to get as much done here before inauguration for my own trading too so that’s a major motivator – I will send out updates as I update!
Cheers!
Curtis.
Article Topics; Swing Trading, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $JUNO, $CBMX, $OAK, $RSX, $BOFI, $SXL, $SLCS, $EOG, $NG, $TRCH, $GREK, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX