Tag: TVIX

Volatility Time Cycle Code Break 2020/21 Update (Part 1) $VIX $VXX $OVX $UVXY $TVIX #swingtrading #timecycles

Curt MelonopolySwing Newsletters, Swing Trading, Time Cycles, Volatility Trading Strategies (VIX), , , , , , ,

Volatility (VIX) Market Time Cycle Update for 2020/21. Part 1 – A Review of Recent Volatility History.

Volatility time cycles affect the financial markets globally. Our time cycle work focuses on Volatility as a foundation and our trading in other key instruments reflects this. Other key instruments are SP500 $SPY $SPX, Crude Oil $CL_F $USO $USOIL, Gold $GC_F $GLD, Silver $SLV, US Dollar $DXY $UUP, Bitcoin $BTC.

We also weigh our stock swing trading (position trading) heavily on our time cycle work in Volatility.

In recent months and years our time cycle work has predicted the primary volatility spikes in markets with uncanny accuracy, this has significantly bolstered our Profit & Loss in Volatility trading, commodities, stocks and crypto.

This series of chart model updates and guidance provides the most recent code break updates for Volatility and the other instruments of trade listed above. First lets look look at Volatility (VIX).

Volatility (VIX) Index last peaked in a primary time cycle trading in the low 80’s between March 7-17 2020. It was trading below 20.00s for sometime prior and then volatility spiked. 

Volatility, time cycles, swing trading
Volatility (VIX) Index last peaked trading low 80’s between March 7 – 17 2020 trading below 20.00s for sometime prior #volatility #swingtrading #timecycles

This presented our trading team and subscribers the opportunity to add to our long positioning in $VXX (short term volatility) and $OVX (oil volatility) in advance of the spike. It also allowed for us to prepare for a significant market sell-off. We closed all long positions in equities four days prior to the SP500 starting it’s COVID sell – off. We had opportunity to the short in size equities such as MasterCard (MA), Nike (NKE), WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) and many more for significant gains.

Last #timecycle we sold off longs 4 days b4 turn down, hammered short Mastercard $MA, WYNN $WYNN, NIKE $NKE etc & long $VIX $OVX at lows when hardly anyone was positioning same, then covered shorts in to turn, long $BA etc recent rally (check dates) #timecycles #swingtrading

$OVX spiked from the 20.00s to 330.00s and even flashed in to the 500.00s. We were adding long positioning in $OVX in the 20.00s and selling as the price spiked in to 330.00s. We didn’t hold to the 500.00s. We also had opportunity to profit from $VXX in the volatility run-up.

There were many other trades around this time cycle that benefited our performance greatly. Look for our Profit and Loss Statements soon to be release (posted to the main page of www.compoundtrading.com).

More recently there was a volatility mid cycle inflection that seen VIX start to rise June 8 from low 20s to mid 40s over a week.

swing trading, VIX, volatility
More recently there was a volatility mid cycle inflection that seen VIX start to rise June 8 from low 20s to mid 40s over a week #swingtrading #VIX

The inflection points between significant cycle peaks are areas of possible spikes. We recently adjusted for this possible inflection and it paid dividends, nothing like the primary March 2020 time cycle spike, but paid us and helped adjust various other swing trade holdings.

I have been reporting to our members for some time that this season of time cycles (2020 – 2025) would see significantly more volatility within volatility, a compression of time cycle duration(s) and viciousness of the cycle peaks. The most recent “inflection” is evidence of the compressed timing of cycles (volatility within volatility cycles and the time between spikes).

Even the most recent Volatility $VIX inflection was a decent trade with $VXX spiking in to 45.00s from high 28.00s and the primary cycle seen 13.00s to 78.00s, not bad.

swing trading, $VXX
Even the most recent Volatility $VIX inflection was a decent trade with $VXX spiking in to 45.00s from high 28.00s and the primary cycle seen 13.00s to 78.00s, not bad.

Most recent $OVX Crude Oil Volatility started to spike in March from 20.00s to 330.00 and then really hit end of April in to 500s. #swingtrading $OVX

During the last time cycle we we buying oil volatility on every dip at near bottoms knowing where the time cycle peak was, $OVX was in the 20’s and rocketed in to the 300s fast, we didn’t hit that by coincidence. Our $VIX model is clear, the cycles are very clear. #timecycles

So this is an example of how the primary volatility indicator $VIX time cycles can be used for other related market instruments and also why it is important to have the time cycle models for the other instruments you trade as well, in this instance crude oil. What a trade that was.

swing trading, OVX, oil volatility
Most recent $OVX Crude Oil Volatility started to spike in March from 20.00s to 330.00 and then really hit end of April in to 500s. #swingtrading $OVX

We also use $TVIX and / or $UVXY on short time frames right in to the time cycles. Instruments you do not want to hold.

$TVIX up 41% today, pays HUGE to know your Time Cycles, also protects your ass ets knowing the time cycles $VIX #volatilitytrading #timecycles

So that is a review of what has happened in volatility so far in 2020 and next we need to look at what’s next in volatility trading and develop our trading strategies for volatility and related instruments.

Part 2 (premium) article for Volatility $VIX time cycles will provide the charting models, time cycle dates for primary volatility time cycles, inflection dates on watch, compressed volatility within volatility dates, support (buy zones) with timing and resistance selling zones with price targets for the dates within the cycles going in Q3 and Q4 2020 and then in to 2021.

The most recent Swing Trading Sunday $STUDY Webinar session on June 14, 2020 had a dedicated segment on volatility time cycles so in part 2 we will start with that video and then start to break open all of the trading strategies for volatility going forward.

There will be historic opportunities in these large time cycle between 2020 – 2025 as I have been saying for a number of years, do not waste it! This is a life changing season of trade for traders.

Part 2 of this article is available here for members:

Protected: Volatility Time Cycle Code Break 2020/21 Update (Part 2 Premium) $VIX $VXX $OVX $ UVXY $TVIX #swingtrading #timecycles

As always, if you have any questions reach out anytime [email protected].

Peace and best.

Curt

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Article Topics; swing trading, time cycles, volatility, $VIX, $VXX, $OVX, $UVXY,, $TVIX

 

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Trading Strategies: Crude Oil WTI USOIL, Bitcoin BTC, SP500 SPY, Volatility VIX, Arrowhead ARWR …

Curt MelonopolySwing Trading, Trading Plan, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Trading Strategy Webinar Hosted Nov 28, 2018 with Trade Alerts and Charting

Audio starts at 3:58 on video.

Quick trade strategy review for crude oil, Bitcoin, SP500, Volatility and ARWR trades.

Short $DWT starter position 13.59 trading intra day 13.05 with price target 8.62. We will see how it goes. Trading 13.03 intra-day. Looking for a snap back trade to upside in crude to 50% of recent sell-off.

Daily chart resistance 52.15 area.

In overnight trade now oil is off trading 49.77 on USOIL WTI at 4:50 AM Eastern. The small bounce so far in overnight after the sell off was at trend-line support on the spigot chart our coders are using for legging in to trade sizing.

As for this starter position short $DWT, holding for now, it is a small position so far. Putin is supportive of Saudi Arabia and if there is a cut in production oil will turn up fast. I’m not marrying the trade either way.

Intra day you could short at top of quad area with 52.40 – .50 resistance.

8:25 Bitcoin BTC – we are looking for a turn in to Christmas being aware of the road bump in market time cycles that has a volatility time cycle (monthly) coming due Dec 5. On Bitcoin we are watching the trend-line chart resistance.

9:23 SP500 $SPY – looking for a possible long SPY in to Dec 20 time cycle peak, however, there is a smaller time cycle peak in VIX on Dec 5 we have to avoid, if that wasn’t there we’d already be long SPY. At this point we are watching.

10:43 Volatility $VIX $UVXY $TVIX We covered our volatility short. Went short TVIX 49.35 covered 50% 45.22 and the remaining at 43.28. Watching support near on VIX at 50 MA (20, 100, 200 also under price) and lower Bollinger bands. Will likely be long in to Dec 5 time VIX specific cycle and short thereafter in to Dec 20 SPY time cycle peak.

11:10 ARROWHEAD $ARWR Last number of days has seen a bounce off the 200 MA, we are monitoring our initial position long.

There is a swing trading report due out today.

Thursday Mid day I will review many swing trades (pending market conditions). We expect to enter most swing trades between now and Tuesday next week. End of day Friday and pre-market is typical for me.

Thanks.

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