Good morning swing traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading newsletter for the week of Dec 19, 2016!
Don’t hesitate to email us at [email protected] anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private mesage Curt in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.
The information below can be quite involved so we don’t mind assisting as needed!
Please review previous swing newsletter here: https://compoundtrading.com/weekly-swing-trade-member-newsletter-dec-12-2016/
My primary seven swing set-ups this week are:
$SPY S&P 500
S&P 500 Keep it Simple Chart of Day. Buy sell 200 20 MA cross on 1 Hr. $SPY $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL
This is one of the best swing set-ups on $SPY and it is really simple (for tighter ranges please refer to FREEDOM the SPY Algo).
When the 200 and 20 MA cross on the 1 Hr use it as buy and sell triggers. Simple.
S&P 500 Keep it Simple Chart of Day. Buy sell 200 20 MA cross on 1 Hr. $SPY $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL
FX: $USOIL $WTI
You can use a number of instruments to trade oil such as FX $USOIL $CL_F CL $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO and more…. I am using $UWT and $DWT.
Per last newsletter:
The important thing with oil is to watch the Fibonacci levels, trend lines (diagonal and horizontal), your moving averages and your trading widths (margins / pivots). I can’t discuss the algorithm here but I can refer you to Epic the Oil Algo twitter feed for various public posts.
Widths / trading range pivots – Because oil is in a break-out you want to take your long positions at the bottom of the yellow lines and I as I mentioned in the last swing newsletter I WOULD NOT short oil in an uptrend at the top of the yellow lines. Wait to short it when it is in a confirmed downtrend – and now is not a confirmed downtrend.
Here is the long position I entered this week in $UWT:
Buy trigger alerted to members last week (green arrow) Crude algo intra work sheet 935PM Dec 18 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo
20 MA on 4 Hour Buy – Sell Trigger. Crude algo intra work sheet 407 AM Dec 19 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo
So now my long position is still long as long as price is over 20 MA on the 4 hour chart (per below) or I may exit at any time. The point is, the next entry trigger I will use long wth $UWT is when the price goes below the 20 MA on the 4 hour chart and then price crosses back up through the 4 hour. This (in addition to support and resistance indicators I gave you last week) is a prmary indicator for long buys in crude oil right now.
20 MA on 4 Hour Buy – Sell Trigger. Crude algo intra work sheet 407 AM Dec 19 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo
$GOLD – $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Here is what I wrote last week:
So last week I said;
Here again I cannot share the proprietary algorithm components of Rosie’s algo but I can share with you the publicly posted data. Rosie predicted in July that Gold would hit this range but also warned of a 90% chance that Gold would have to hit the bottom of a quadrant on her charting. That would put Gold near 1133.00. I am waiting to see if this occurs and I will take a long trade in $NUGT at that time with a normal swing stop of about 4% and then if uptrend confirms I will scale in at 3 stages. Initial order 2000 shares the 5000 then 10000 then 20000 adding at pullbacks.
The idea in swing trading is to catch the trend reversal and then scale in when confirmed.
Good thing I waited! Price has downtrended since. It isn’t at my preferred 1133.00 so I am going to watch – if it starts to take off upward I will start to nibble with long positions with tight stops. No particular level that I would do that – just if it started to move for any more than a day and it looked like it had momentum. Then slowly enter. BUT THE PREFERRED play is to wait for that 1133.00 WHICH COULD COME QUICK NOW.
Here is the simple chart of the day for Gold swings:
Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 100 MA 1 WK Buy Sell Trigger. Gold algo intra work sheet 1022 PM Dec 18 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo
When the price of Gold turns back up above the 100 MA (blue line) on the 1 week chart that is as simple an indicator swings as you can get. And sell when it turns down below. I am watching this and other indicators per previous. For tighter tighter time-frames refer to Rosie the Algo subscription – but for swings I would use this indicator.
Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 100 MA 1 WK Buy Sell Trigger. Gold algo intra work sheet 1022 PM Dec 18 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo
$SILVER $SLV $USLV $DSLV
As I wrote last week:
Silver is in exactly the same position as Gold – wait for the Gold confirmation before entering IMO. Use the same scaling principals. Watch SuperNova Silver twitter feed too.
I have always said that Silver will hold up better in a downtrend, but it doesn’t mean you take a long position yet. Sure, it came up a bit since last week, but the idea is to catch the tren reversal and scale in to it for a large gain over time.
Here is a simple chart of the day for Silver swing trading:
SILVER Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 1 Week Buy over 200 and 20 MA Sell Under 20 MA $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV
So this is an indicator set-up for Silver swing trading that I will be using. Buy signal is when price is over 200 and 20 MA on the 1 week chart and sell signal is when price is under the 20 MA.
For tighter tighter time-frames refer to SuperNova Silver Algo subscription – but for swings I would use this indicator.
SILVER Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 1 Week Buy over 200 and 20 MA Sell Under 20 MA $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV
$VIX
Last Week I Wrote:
I am going to enter a long position in $UVXY or $TVIX for a short term swing (less than 10 days hopefully) at as close to 12.20 as I can get – if I can’t get that I am looking at 12.77.
Considering the geo political environment I won’t be shorting the $VIX unless it gets really extended to topside – which it is not right now.
So it came down to my price target and I didn’t take a trade – I watched. Then it spiked and I would have had a short term gain. Now it’s sitting back at my buy target area and I am going to watch.
If it starts upward I will likely take a trade long in $TVIX or $UVXY and exit by ratcheting up my stops as it goes. Where exactly where I take that trade? I don’t know. But I’m getting more confident with it because of two reasons.
1. At the end of day Friday the there was $VIX insurance buying even while $SPY was spiking at end of day and $XIV (which is the opposite of $VIX) wasn’t moving like it normally does when there is a $SPY spike. Now, $VIX isn’t determined by $SPY but it is a signficant factor. So when they move in this way it is time to pay attention.
2. ALSO, the CNN fear and greed indicator is near all time highs for greed. If you study it out there is a correlation – when greed is this high 9 times out of 10 there is a spike in $VIX because if nothing else investors start taking out insurance. http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Now, if the $VIX does spike, and the spike is significant I will short the $VIX because that is always easy money – but that is something that has to be determined on an intra level and I can’t give you levels here on a swing alert.
Here is a keep it simple swing trade for the $VIX on the long side and the short side that I will be using:
$VIX Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 50 MA cross 200 MA to upside buy and when it turns under 20 MA sell short. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV
It doesn’t get much easier than that for long and short side of $VIX – but you do need to babysit it close because it can swing drastic – so set stops.
$VIX Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 50 MA cross 200 MA to upside buy and when it turns under 20 MA sell short. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV
$DXY – US Dollar ($UUP)
$DXY Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 200 MA and 50 MA 1 Day Cross Buy Sell Trigger $UUP
The simplest swing trading indicator on the US Dollar I was able to find. 200 MA and 50 MA cross on the 1 day chart for long and short positions.
$DXY Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 200 MA and 50 MA 1 Day Cross Buy Sell Trigger $UUP
$JUNO
Last week I wrote this:
This is a wash-out snap-back swing that I really like. It is up in premarket today but I believe there is a lot of room here. My timeframe is 3 months and I expect a lot of that gap fill to come in to play at 29.83. It has resistance at 22.87 but I don’t think it will hold. One of my favorite swings right now.
So this one didn’t do as well, but I am holding and I will enter with more of a position if it gets back up off it’s feet and starts trending up. Like I wrote, my time-frame is 3 months so I will be patient.
So $JUNO has continued to be soft… I am still in and holding – I will be looking for a long add when I get solid buy triggers. I will update mid week if I take a long position trade.
$CBMX
I wrote this last week:
This IMO opinion is a fantastic opportunity – but it does have its risk. You wll have to research the company on your own and make a determination for yourself. But if you find after your research that you think it’s a decent hold for a month or two it is one of the best swing plays on the market at this price IMO. I’m looking to add today to my position.
Well this one worked out well too, I am currently adding in near the 2.90 level. A mid term hold for (3 – 6 months) and I expect close to 50% gain on it. But it is high risk so set stops.
I am still in this. I will be adding to my position long if and when price nears the yellow line on chart.
$CBMX Swing Trade Chart
This comment from last week remains the same:
That’s about it for this week. I am waiting for the market inflection to settle down and a little more of the indices to settle on the other side of this Trump trade before scaling in to any indices plays and the like. But as I said I am running about 40 charts on plays I am looking at and hope to start adding some of those for next Sunday!
Have a great week and if you have any questions email anytime!
Best of luck!
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Article Topics; Swing Trading, $JUNO, $CBMX, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX