Category: Swing Trading
Keep It Simple (KISS) Crude Oil Swing Trading Part 1 – Using Moving Averages, Gap Fills, MACD for Directional Bias, Size and Position.
PART 1 – K.I.S.S. Swing Trading Crude Oil – Gap filled, now time to watch 200 MA on 4 hour, last time price tested it twice and sold off. #swingtrading #crudeoil
In this short public facing unlocked oil swing trading article, we look at simple indicators oil traders can use to position swing trade bias and trade sizing.
If price gets under 200 MA on 4 Hr and 20 MA crosses 200 MA with price under, this is a fairly decent signal a trend change is setting in for a considerable pull back. You can run this basic indication on each time frame to get a feel for your swing trade positioning and sizing.
A simple but effective way to gauge bias, sizing, risk, positioning strategy etc for oil swing traders.
Another great strategy for swing trading crude oil, specifically for directional bias is watching the MACD on the daily, currently crossed down.
If oil does sell off, the trading support levels noted on the chart would be preferred areas to take profits along the way in a swing trade.
In Part 2, we will go in to some Premium Swing Trade Member charting for structured oil swing trading models including time cycles, price targets and more.
In Part 3 for our Oil Trading Premium Members we will build out our oil trading strategy further with Algorithmic Trading Models.
Look for those later this evening.
If you need anything email me at [email protected].
Thanks
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
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Article Topics; Swing Trading, Crude Oil, Trading, Oil, MACD, Moving Averages, Gap Fill, Support Levels, Sizing, Bias.
Why Winning Percentage Matters: Trader Question & Answer (Also Time Cycles, $VIX, Market Extremes)
Why a Trader’s Winning Percentage Matters: Trader Question & Answer (also discussed time cycles, $VIX, market extremes)
A question and answer on WhatsApp this morning between myself and one of our newer swing trading subscribers.
[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Hi curt , for VIX , what instrument do you recommend for buying the insurance ?
[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: we use VXX
[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Ok thanks , and do you treat it like a normal position size ?
[10:20 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: yes, but you have to consider it insurance on shorter time frames, but yes, none are great trading vehicles but for insurance not so bad, but sometimes you get lucky too on top of insurance haha
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Ok thank you 🙏
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: no problem, just be aware the VIX toward end of XXXX could see XXXXs!
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: could
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: nobody knows
[10:23 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I gather time cycle can be big increase or decrease right ?
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: correct, we don’t know which direction, we know where
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but i’m protecting our positions over long weekend, for me, market is too happy, for me thats a potential problem
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: same as when market is selling off crazy
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but like oil selling off haha there is no bottom
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: and there is no top
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but when things are extreme i like caution, and right now i see extreme, in to a long weekend, imo thats risky
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I find these time cycles pretty fascinating
[10:26 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: yes, the deeper in to it you get the better you will get at reading them
[10:26 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: it is where most of our profit comes from
[10:27 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: the new P&L release will show you in great detail, should be out this weekend
[10:28 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I gather the general situation for the group is few recommendations until time cycle direction starts to show itself more
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: exactly, our money comes in to and out of the key areas, we still trade in between, but experience show and as you study time cycles, you’ll see why 80% of your ROI will come from being on top of the cycles
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: limits choppy losses too
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: choppy losses have an effect on your winning mind too
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: avoiding loss is important
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: bottom line, you want your subconscious to only think win
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: because it will lead around your brain on a leash
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: this is why i dont accept a 50% win rate is okay, even if you win big on wins
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: the top goal should be highest percentage of wins
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Love it
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: a trained mind is most important imo, then everything else follows
As always, if you have any questions reach out anytime [email protected].
Peace and best.
Curt
Current List of Available P&Ls (remaining dates are in progress now to be released soon):
- Swing Trading Performance Summary (Q4 2019, Q1 2020 Interim): Return %, Gain/Loss, Win/Loss Rate, Number of Trades.
- Swing Trading Alert Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 1543.93% Feb 1-Feb 21, 2020. $200,000.00 – $230,051.00 #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 64.45% Jan 1 – Jan 31, 2020. $200,000.00 – $208119.00. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 246.31% Dec 1 – Dec 31, 2019. $200,000.00 – $220,898.50. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 315.32% Nov 1 – Nov 30, 2019. $200,000.00 – $224,130.16. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 62.69% October 2019. $100,000.00 – $103,970.20. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss Annualized 355.22%. March 26 – June 28, 2017. $204,616.60 – $303,443.60. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading (Short Term Trades) Profit Loss Annualized 2,437.96%. April 3 – June 28, 2017. $17,354.69 – $37,713.16 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing and Day Trading Profit Loss – Annualized 957.90% Dec 26, 2016 – March 26, 2017. $100,000.00 – $180,347.88 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
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Article Topics: Q&A, Trader, Trading, Swing Trading, VIX, Time Cycles, Market Timing