Good morning swing traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading memo for the week of Jan 22, 2017!

Don’t hesitate to email us at info@compoundtrading.com anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private message Curtis in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.

Notices:

One new chart added for today! The rest are from the previous report. The new add is Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL. They report earnings this Thursday!

This Swing Report is in Development (as with $VIX, $SPY algos) – But We’re Getting There.

Below you will find my top ten picks for swing trading in the first quarter of 2017 (plus a few bonus picks I will be swing trading). I am currently in the middle of compiling the due diligence and charting set-ups for publication for over fifty charts so this list may grow considerably – I am excited about 2017.

As mentioned previous, I will also include our regular algorithmic modeling equities relating to Oil, Gold, Miners, Silver, US Dollar, Volatility and SPY in my 2017 reports (in addition to the ten others listed below) FYI.

In my reports I will focus on both long term holds and swing trading these equities with an intent to try and time the highs and lows (pull-backs) as best as possible. I know many propose that picking the highs and lows isn’t the best method – but to be frank it has served me well over the years.

Also, I should mention, that any of the stocks below that do not trade well (or as planned) I will switch out with another choice as the weeks progress. But the intent is to hold ten investment / swing stocks (per below) and also swing trade in and out of the regular algorithmic modeling equities I mentioned also.

So bottom line is that I am in process here, building it out, it isn’t done, it’s going to take a lot more time than I ever imagined, but I’ll be updating and building this out considerably now forward. Again, sorry about the delays.

Oh, and the updates will be coming out more often than weekly also (thought I should mention that).

First step is to get charts out with levels I will be trading. Then I’ll put out more DD on each also.

I am going to start below with ones that are most timely and build this out from there (in order of priority for my personal trades and what I see going on in the market).

The Ten Swing Trades I am going to focus on in the First Quarter of 2017 are as follows:

1 – Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL, $GOOG

We like this chart. Watch for an upside break out of the triangle. The principles apply the same to $GOOG and $GOOGL charts fyi. Also, watch the MACD close, it looks primed for a move. Earnings are Thursday. If price breaks to downside I will update with levels to watch. Also, the is a chart below that shows upside target.

$GOOGL, Chart

Fibonacci to watch, triangle, MACD, Break to upside possible in Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL

Link to live $GOOGL chart in TradingView.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GOOGL/isvDnbTQ-Swing-Trading-Member-Chart-GOOGL/

1003.17 Price Target in 2017 with upside break-out. Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL

Technically, the price target (should price break to upside) is 1003.17 before Jan 29 2018.

$GOOGL, Price Target

1003.17 Price Target in 2017 with upside break-out. Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL

2 – Amazon $AMZN

My fourth priority is Amazon. I don’t want to over simplify this trade – but the bottom line is I’m looking for a pull-back and an entry as close to that 200 day (pink line with green arrow) as possible. I don’t think this stock will stop anytime soon. DD to follow soon.

$AMZN, Swing

$AMZN Swing

3 – Juno $JUNO

4 – CombiMatrix Corp $CBMX

My second priority is $CBMX. I am already in this swing and plan to enter in dips at the diagonal trend line (blue). Initial target area is around 5.57 with much greater potential upside. The Trump factor may cause this to come off a bit so my bias is toward late spring for first price target.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CBMX/qtdyUyY0-CBMX-Swing-Trade/

$CBMX, Swing Trade, Chart

$CBMX Swing Trade

5 – OakTree Capital $OAK

6 – VanEck Vectors Russia ETF $RSX

7 – BOFI Holdings $BOFI

8 – Sunoco Logistics Partners $SXL

9 – US Silica Holdings $SLCA

My fifth priority is $SLCA. Again, another simple chart and it will require some patience. I see a pull-back coming and huge upside under the Trump inertia in to summer. I am looking for a pull-back to the 50 day (yellow arrow) or the 100 day preferably (blue arrow). If it gets away on me I’ll likely chase it and scale in 1/5th at a time.

$SCLA, Swing, Trade

$SCLA Swing Trade

10 – EOG Resources $EOG

The Bonus Picks for 2017 I will be Swing Trading also:

1 – $GREK Global Greece ETF

2 – $TRCH Torchlight Energy

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TRCH/xxpZ4uPM-TRCH-Swing-Trade/

$TRCH Swing Trade

$TRCH Swing Trade

3 – $NG Nova Gold

The first swing of 2017 I will be entering (likely today) is NovaGold. First target is 6.46 area and second target is 7.30 area. It is currently trading at 5.10. It’s full extension is over 8.50.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NG/1Sz7RDKg-NG-Novagold-Swing-Trade/

$NG, NovaGold, SwingTrade, Chart

$NG Novagold Swing Trade

Our Standard Algorithmic Modeling Securities I will be providing Swing Trade levels for are:

1 – $SPY

2 – $VIX

My seventh priority is the VIX. I see a pull-back in the market coming and a lift in VIX. The primary trade I am looking for is actually a short in the VIX when it gets upside it’s bolllinger band (it’s a little more complicated than that – specifically with timing and I will be putting an alert out when I do it anyway) – I’ll also play some short term longs in $TVIX or $UVXY.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/t6YF7SQY-VIX-Short-Swing-Trade-Above-Bollinger-Band/

$VIX, Swing, Trade, Short

$VIX Short Swing Trade Above Bollinger Band

3 – $DXY

4 – $SLV

5 – $GLD – Gold (and miner’s $GDX)

My third priority on this list are the miner’s – $GDX and leveraged friends. This one is risky but comes with large gains if miner’s get moving and price breaks in to next quadrant above the yellow one outlined on the chart below. And for the risk taker it can be traded with leveraged ETN’s. There are inherent risks however; one is that price is not at bottom of the trading quadrant so an entry here is not ideal and the obvious issue is the Trump factor.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8QOM4r5s/

$GDX, Swing, Trade

$GDX Swing Trade

6 – $USOIL / $WTI

In overnight lab work our developers established a diagonal trendline (blue line in chart that has a blue arrow pointing at it) that has established itself as strong support. If you take a swing trade against that support (as as close to it as possible) then look to the upside of that white dotted arrow line as your target long. Ratchet up stops there.

Epic, Oil, Algo, Chart

Crude algo intra work sheet 208 AM Jan 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Email or DM me on Twitter anytime with thoughts or questions!

I will be updating regularly now – I need to get as much done here before inauguration for my own trading too so that’s a major motivator – I will send out updates as I update!

Cheers!

Curtis.

Article Topics; Swing Trading, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $JUNO, $CBMX, $OAK, $RSX, $BOFI, $SXL, $SLCS, $EOG, $NG, $TRCH, $GREK, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX


Good morning swing traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading memo for the week of Jan 16, 2017!

Don’t hesitate to email us at info@compoundtrading.com anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private message Curtis in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.

Notices:

Below only one new chart added for today! The rest are from the previous report. It’s $USOIL $WTI that can be traded also with $UWT $DWT, $USO, $UCO, $SCO etc… Anyway, oil has established a support area that would be decent as a swing trade – see below for details.

This Swing Report is in Development (as with $VIX, $SPY algos) – But We’re Getting There.

Below you will find my top ten picks for swing trading in the first quarter of 2017 (plus a few bonus picks I will be swing trading). I am currently in the middle of compiling the due diligence and charting set-ups for publication for over fifty charts so this list may grow considerably – I am excited about 2017.

As mentioned previous, I will also include our regular algorithmic modeling equities relating to Oil, Gold, Miners, Silver, US Dollar, Volatility and SPY in my 2017 reports (in addition to the ten others listed below) FYI.

In my reports I will focus on both long term holds and swing trading these equities with an intent to try and time the highs and lows (pull-backs) as best as possible. I know many propose that picking the highs and lows isn’t the best method – but to be frank it has served me well over the years.

Also, I should mention, that any of the stocks below that do not trade well (or as planned) I will switch out with another choice as the weeks progress. But the intent is to hold ten investment / swing stocks (per below) and also swing trade in and out of the regular algorithmic modeling equities I mentioned also.

So bottom line is that I am in process here, building it out, it isn’t done, it’s going to take a lot more time than I ever imagined, but I’ll be updating and building this out considerably now forward. Again, sorry about the delays.

Oh, and the updates will be coming out more often than weekly also (thought I should mention that).

First step is to get charts out with levels I will be trading. Then I’ll put out more DD on each also.

I am going to start below with ones that are most timely and build this out from there (in order of priority for my personal trades and what I see going on in the market).

The Ten Swing Trades I am going to focus on in the First Quarter of 2017 are as follows:

1 – Google $GOOGL

2 – Amazon $AMZN

My fourth priority is Amazon. I don’t want to over simplify this trade – but the bottom line is I’m looking for a pull-back and an entry as close to that 200 day (pink line with green arrow) as possible. I don’t think this stock will stop anytime soon. DD to follow soon.

$AMZN, Swing

$AMZN Swing

3 – Juno $JUNO

4 – CombiMatrix Corp $CBMX

My second priority is $CBMX. I am already in this swing and plan to enter in dips at the diagonal trend line (blue). Initial target area is around 5.57 with much greater potential upside. The Trump factor may cause this to come off a bit so my bias is toward late spring for first price target.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CBMX/qtdyUyY0-CBMX-Swing-Trade/

$CBMX, Swing Trade, Chart

$CBMX Swing Trade

5 – OakTree Capital $OAK

6 – VanEck Vectors Russia ETF $RSX

7 – BOFI Holdings $BOFI

8 – Sunoco Logistics Partners $SXL

9 – US Silica Holdings $SLCA

My fifth priority is $SLCA. Again, another simple chart and it will require some patience. I see a pull-back coming and huge upside under the Trump inertia in to summer. I am looking for a pull-back to the 50 day (yellow arrow) or the 100 day preferably (blue arrow). If it gets away on me I’ll likely chase it and scale in 1/5th at a time.

$SCLA, Swing, Trade

$SCLA Swing Trade

10 – EOG Resources $EOG

The Bonus Picks for 2017 I will be Swing Trading also:

1 – $GREK Global Greece ETF

2 – $TRCH Torchlight Energy

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TRCH/xxpZ4uPM-TRCH-Swing-Trade/

$TRCH Swing Trade

$TRCH Swing Trade

3 – $NG Nova Gold

The first swing of 2017 I will be entering (likely today) is NovaGold. First target is 6.46 area and second target is 7.30 area. It is currently trading at 5.10. It’s full extension is over 8.50.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NG/1Sz7RDKg-NG-Novagold-Swing-Trade/

$NG, NovaGold, SwingTrade, Chart

$NG Novagold Swing Trade

Our Standard Algorithmic Modeling Securities I will be providing Swing Trade levels for are:

1 – $SPY

2 – $VIX

My seventh priority is the VIX. I see a pull-back in the market coming and a lift in VIX. The primary trade I am looking for is actually a short in the VIX when it gets upside it’s bolllinger band (it’s a little more complicated than that – specifically with timing and I will be putting an alert out when I do it anyway) – I’ll also play some short term longs in $TVIX or $UVXY.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/t6YF7SQY-VIX-Short-Swing-Trade-Above-Bollinger-Band/

$VIX, Swing, Trade, Short

$VIX Short Swing Trade Above Bollinger Band

3 – $DXY

4 – $SLV

5 – $GLD – Gold (and miner’s $GDX)

My third priority on this list are the miner’s – $GDX and leveraged friends. This one is risky but comes with large gains if miner’s get moving and price breaks in to next quadrant above the yellow one outlined on the chart below. And for the risk taker it can be traded with leveraged ETN’s. There are inherent risks however; one is that price is not at bottom of the trading quadrant so an entry here is not ideal and the obvious issue is the Trump factor.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8QOM4r5s/

$GDX, Swing, Trade

$GDX Swing Trade

6 – $USOIL / $WTI

In overnight lab work our developers established a diagonal trendline (blue line in chart that has a blue arrow pointing at it) that has established itself as strong support. If you take a swing trade against that support (as as close to it as possible) then look to the upside of that white dotted arrow line as your target long. Ratchet up stops there.

Epic, Oil, Algo, Chart

Crude algo intra work sheet 208 AM Jan 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Email or DM me on Twitter anytime with thoughts or questions!

I will be updating regularly now – I need to get as much done here before inauguration for my own trading too so that’s a major motivator – I will send out updates as I update!

Cheers!

Curtis.

Article Topics; Swing Trading, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $JUNO, $CBMX, $OAK, $RSX, $BOFI, $SXL, $SLCS, $EOG, $NG, $TRCH, $GREK, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX


Good morning swing traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading memo for the week of Jan 16, 2017!

Don’t hesitate to email us at info@compoundtrading.com anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private message Curtis in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.

Notices:

Below only one new chart added for today! The rest are from the previous report. It’s $TRCH and it’s a doozie!

This Swing Report is in Development (as with $VIX, $SPY algos) – But We’re Getting There.

Below you will find my top ten picks for swing trading in the first quarter of 2017 (plus a few bonus picks I will be swing trading). I am currently in the middle of compiling the due diligence and charting set-ups for publication for over fifty charts so this list may grow considerably – I am excited about 2017.

As mentioned previous, I will also include our regular algorithmic modeling equities relating to Oil, Gold, Miners, Silver, US Dollar, Volatility and SPY in my 2017 reports (in addition to the ten others listed below) FYI.

In my reports I will focus on both long term holds and swing trading these equities with an intent to try and time the highs and lows (pull-backs) as best as possible. I know many propose that picking the highs and lows isn’t the best method – but to be frank it has served me well over the years.

Also, I should mention, that any of the stocks below that do not trade well (or as planned) I will switch out with another choice as the weeks progress. But the intent is to hold ten investment / swing stocks (per below) and also swing trade in and out of the regular algorithmic modeling equities I mentioned also.

So bottom line is that I am in process here, building it out, it isn’t done, it’s going to take a lot more time than I ever imagined, but I’ll be updating and building this out considerably now forward. Again, sorry about the delays.

Oh, and the updates will be coming out more often than weekly also (thought I should mention that).

First step is to get charts out with levels I will be trading. Then I’ll put out more DD on each also.

I am going to start below with ones that are most timely and build this out from there (in order of priority for my personal trades and what I see going on in the market).

The Ten Swing Trades I am going to focus on in the First Quarter of 2017 are as follows:

1 – Google $GOOGL

2 – Amazon $AMZN

My fourth priority is Amazon. I don’t want to over simplify this trade – but the bottom line is I’m looking for a pull-back and an entry as close to that 200 day (pink line with green arrow) as possible. I don’t think this stock will stop anytime soon. DD to follow soon.

$AMZN, Swing

$AMZN Swing

3 – Juno $JUNO

4 – CombiMatrix Corp $CBMX

My second priority is $CBMX. I am already in this swing and plan to enter in dips at the diagonal trend line (blue). Initial target area is around 5.57 with much greater potential upside. The Trump factor may cause this to come off a bit so my bias is toward late spring for first price target.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CBMX/qtdyUyY0-CBMX-Swing-Trade/

$CBMX, Swing Trade, Chart

$CBMX Swing Trade

5 – OakTree Capital $OAK

6 – VanEck Vectors Russia ETF $RSX

7 – BOFI Holdings $BOFI

8 – Sunoco Logistics Partners $SXL

9 – US Silica Holdings $SLCA

My fifth priority is $SLCA. Again, another simple chart and it will require some patience. I see a pull-back coming and huge upside under the Trump inertia in to summer. I am looking for a pull-back to the 50 day (yellow arrow) or the 100 day preferably (blue arrow). If it gets away on me I’ll likely chase it and scale in 1/5th at a time.

$SCLA, Swing, Trade

$SCLA Swing Trade

10 – EOG Resources $EOG

The Bonus Picks for 2017 I will be Swing Trading also:

1 – $GREK Global Greece ETF

2 – $TRCH Torchlight Energy

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TRCH/xxpZ4uPM-TRCH-Swing-Trade/

$TRCH Swing Trade

$TRCH Swing Trade

3 – $NG Nova Gold

The first swing of 2017 I will be entering (likely today) is NovaGold. First target is 6.46 area and second target is 7.30 area. It is currently trading at 5.10. It’s full extension is over 8.50.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NG/1Sz7RDKg-NG-Novagold-Swing-Trade/

$NG, NovaGold, SwingTrade, Chart

$NG Novagold Swing Trade

Our Standard Algorithmic Modeling Securities I will be providing Swing Trade levels for are:

1 – $SPY

2 – $VIX

My seventh priority is the VIX. I see a pull-back in the market coming and a lift in VIX. The primary trade I am looking for is actually a short in the VIX when it gets upside it’s bolllinger band (it’s a little more complicated than that – specifically with timing and I will be putting an alert out when I do it anyway) – I’ll also play some short term longs in $TVIX or $UVXY.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/t6YF7SQY-VIX-Short-Swing-Trade-Above-Bollinger-Band/

$VIX, Swing, Trade, Short

$VIX Short Swing Trade Above Bollinger Band

3 – $DXY

4 – $SLV

5 – $GLD – Gold (and miner’s $GDX)

My third priority on this list are the miner’s – $GDX and leveraged friends. This one is risky but comes with large gains if miner’s get moving and price breaks in to next quadrant above the yellow one outlined on the chart below. And for the risk taker it can be traded with leveraged ETN’s. There are inherent risks however; one is that price is not at bottom of the trading quadrant so an entry here is not ideal and the obvious issue is the Trump factor.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8QOM4r5s/

$GDX, Swing, Trade

$GDX Swing Trade

6 – $USOIL / $WTI

Email or DM me on Twitter anytime with thoughts or questions!

I will be updating regularly now – I need to get as much done here before inauguration for my own trading too so that’s a major motivator – I will send out updates as I update!

Cheers!

Curtis.

Article Topics; Swing Trading, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $JUNO, $CBMX, $OAK, $RSX, $BOFI, $SXL, $SLCS, $EOG, $NG, $TRCH, $GREK, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX


Good morning swing traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading memo for the week of Jan 9, 2017!

Don’t hesitate to email us at info@compoundtrading.com anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private message Curtis in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.

This is Only an Intro Memo.

Below you will find my top ten picks for swing trading in the first quarter of 2017. I am currently in the middle of compiling the due diligence and charting set-ups for publication. I will have this out to members within 48 hours. I apologize for the delay. I found myself deep in to the charting, financials and company technical dynamics of over fifty companies while doing my research for 2017 swing and investment trades – I didn’t expect to get that deep and involved in my research. But I did and that has caused a bit of delay.

I will also include our regular algorithmic modeling equities relating to Oil, Gold, Miners, Silver, US Dollar, Volatility and SPY in my 2017 reports (in addition to the ten others listed below) FYI.

I am very encouraged getting back in to investing and swing trading this year – I have been on the sidelines for the better part of two years as the markets have been more sideways than up or down. But I see 2017 as a really strong investing and swing trading year.

So below I only share my top picks and will have complete swing and investment reports out within 48 hours and thereafter I will have weekly swing set-ups published like clock-work moving forward. In my reports I will focus on both long term holds and swing trading these equities with an intent to try and time the highs and lows (pull-backs) as best as possible. I know many propose that picking the highs and lows isn’t the best method – but to be frank it has served me well over the years.

Also, I should mention, that any of the stocks below that do not trade well (or as planned) I will switch out with another choice as the weeks progress. But the intent is to hold ten investment / swing stocks (per below) and also swing trade in and out of the regular algorithmic modeling equities I mentioned also.

The Ten Securities I Am Going to Focus on in the First Quarter of 2017 are as Follows:

Google $GOOGL

Amazon $AMZN

Juno $JUNO

CombiMatrix Corp $CBMX

OakTree Capital $OAK

VanEck Vectors Russia ETF $RSX

BOFI Holdings $BOFI

Sunoco Logistics Partners $SXL

US Silica Holdings $SLCA

EOG Resources $EOG

So if you could, bear with me for another 48 hours and I will have complete charting and due diligence out to our swing trade members and onward and upward for 2017!

Oh, and I should mention, I did receive a number of emails over Christmas and will be responding to them in conjunction with turning around my report here over the next couple days.

Cheers!

Curtis.

Article Topics; Swing Trading, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $JUNO, $CBMX, $OAK, $RSX, $BOFI, $SXL, $SLCS, $EOG, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX


Good morning swing traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading newsletter for the week of Dec 19, 2016!

Don’t hesitate to email us at info@compoundtrading.com anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private mesage Curt in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.

The information below can be quite involved so we don’t mind assisting as needed!

Please review previous swing newsletter here: https://compoundtrading.com/weekly-swing-trade-member-newsletter-dec-12-2016/

My primary seven swing set-ups this week are:

$SPY S&P 500

S&P 500 Keep it Simple Chart of Day. Buy sell 200 20 MA cross on 1 Hr. $SPY $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

This is one of the best swing set-ups on $SPY and it is really simple (for tighter ranges please refer to FREEDOM the SPY Algo).

When the 200 and 20 MA cross on the 1 Hr use it as buy and sell triggers. Simple.

$SPY, Chart

S&P 500 Keep it Simple Chart of Day. Buy sell 200 20 MA cross on 1 Hr. $SPY $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

FX: $USOIL $WTI

You can use a number of instruments to trade oil such as FX $USOIL $CL_F CL $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO and more…. I am using $UWT and $DWT.

Per last newsletter:

The important thing with oil is to watch the Fibonacci levels, trend lines (diagonal and horizontal), your moving averages and your trading widths (margins / pivots). I can’t discuss the algorithm here but I can refer you to Epic the Oil Algo twitter feed for various public posts.

Widths / trading range pivots – Because oil is in a break-out you want to take your long positions at the bottom of the yellow lines and I as I mentioned in the last swing newsletter I WOULD NOT short oil in an uptrend at the top of the yellow lines. Wait to short it when it is in a confirmed downtrend – and now is not a confirmed downtrend.

Here is the long position I entered this week in $UWT:

Crude oil. Swing Trade

Buy trigger alerted to members last week (green arrow) Crude algo intra work sheet 935PM Dec 18 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

20 MA on 4 Hour Buy – Sell Trigger. Crude algo intra work sheet 407 AM Dec 19 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

So now my long position is still long as long as price is over 20 MA on the 4 hour chart (per below) or I may exit at any time. The point is, the next entry trigger I will use long wth $UWT is when the price goes below the 20 MA on the 4 hour chart and then price crosses back up through the 4 hour. This (in addition to support and resistance indicators I gave you last week) is a prmary indicator for long buys in crude oil right now.

20 MA, Buy Trigger, Crude Oil, Chart

20 MA on 4 Hour Buy – Sell Trigger. Crude algo intra work sheet 407 AM Dec 19 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

$GOLD – $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG

Here is what I wrote last week:

So last week I said;

Here again I cannot share the proprietary algorithm components of Rosie’s algo but I can share with you the publicly posted data. Rosie predicted in July that Gold would hit this range but also warned of a 90% chance that Gold would have to hit the bottom of a quadrant on her charting. That would put Gold near 1133.00. I am waiting to see if this occurs and I will take a long trade in $NUGT at that time with a normal swing stop of about 4% and then if uptrend confirms I will scale in at 3 stages. Initial order 2000 shares the 5000 then 10000 then 20000 adding at pullbacks.

The idea in swing trading is to catch the trend reversal and then scale in when confirmed.

Good thing I waited! Price has downtrended since. It isn’t at my preferred 1133.00 so I am going to watch – if it starts to take off upward I will start to nibble with long positions with tight stops. No particular level that I would do that – just if it started to move for any more than a day and it looked like it had momentum. Then slowly enter. BUT THE PREFERRED play is to wait for that 1133.00 WHICH COULD COME QUICK NOW.

Here is the simple chart of the day for Gold swings:

Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 100 MA 1 WK Buy Sell Trigger. Gold algo intra work sheet 1022 PM Dec 18 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

When the price of Gold turns back up above the 100 MA (blue line) on the 1 week chart that is as simple an indicator swings as you can get. And sell when it turns down below. I am watching this and other indicators per previous. For tighter tighter time-frames refer to Rosie the Algo subscription  – but for swings I would use this indicator.

Gold, Chart, Swing Trade

Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 100 MA 1 WK Buy Sell Trigger. Gold algo intra work sheet 1022 PM Dec 18 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

$SILVER $SLV $USLV $DSLV

As I wrote last week:

Silver is in exactly the same position as Gold – wait for the Gold confirmation before entering IMO. Use the same scaling principals. Watch SuperNova Silver twitter feed too.

I have always said that Silver will hold up better in a downtrend, but it doesn’t mean you take a long position yet. Sure, it came up a bit since last week, but the idea is to catch the tren reversal and scale in to it for a large gain over time.

Here is a simple chart of the day for Silver swing trading:

SILVER Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 1 Week Buy over 200 and 20 MA Sell Under 20 MA $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

So this is an indicator set-up for Silver swing trading that I will be using. Buy signal is when price is over 200 and 20 MA on the 1 week chart and sell signal is when price is under the 20 MA.

For tighter tighter time-frames refer to SuperNova Silver Algo subscription – but for swings I would use this indicator.

Silver, Swing Trade, Chart

SILVER Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 1 Week Buy over 200 and 20 MA Sell Under 20 MA $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

$VIX

Last Week I Wrote:

I am going to enter a long position in $UVXY or $TVIX for a short term swing (less than 10 days hopefully) at as close to 12.20 as I can get – if I can’t get that I am looking at 12.77.

Considering the geo political environment I won’t be shorting the $VIX unless it gets really extended to topside – which it is not right now.

So it came down to my price target and I didn’t take a trade – I watched. Then it spiked and I would have had a short term gain. Now it’s sitting back at my buy target area and I am going to watch.

If it starts upward I will likely take a trade long in $TVIX or $UVXY and exit by ratcheting up my stops as it goes. Where exactly where I take that trade? I don’t know. But I’m getting more confident with it because of two reasons.

1. At the end of day Friday the there was $VIX insurance buying even while $SPY was spiking at end of day and $XIV (which is the opposite of $VIX) wasn’t moving like it normally does when there is a $SPY spike. Now, $VIX isn’t determined by $SPY but it is a signficant factor. So when they move in this way it is time to pay attention.

2. ALSO, the CNN fear and greed indicator is near all time highs for greed. If you study it out there is a correlation – when greed is this high 9 times out of 10 there is a spike in $VIX because if nothing else investors start taking out insurance. http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Now, if the $VIX does spike, and the spike is significant I will short the $VIX because that is always easy money – but that is something that has to be determined on an intra level and I can’t give you levels here on a swing alert.

Here is a keep it simple swing trade for the $VIX on the long side and the short side that I will be using:

$VIX Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 50 MA cross 200 MA to upside buy and when it turns under 20 MA sell short. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

It doesn’t get much easier than that for long and short side of $VIX – but you do need to babysit it close because it can swing drastic – so set stops.

$VIX, Swing Trade, Chart

$VIX Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 50 MA cross 200 MA to upside buy and when it turns under 20 MA sell short. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

$DXY – US Dollar ($UUP)

$DXY Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 200 MA and 50 MA 1 Day Cross Buy Sell Trigger $UUP

The simplest swing trading indicator on the US Dollar I was able to find. 200 MA and 50 MA cross on the 1 day chart for long and short positions.

$DXY, US Dollar, $UUP, Chart, Swing Trading

$DXY Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 200 MA and 50 MA 1 Day Cross Buy Sell Trigger $UUP

$JUNO

Last week I wrote this:

This is a wash-out snap-back swing that I really like. It is up in premarket today but I believe there is a lot of room here. My timeframe is 3 months and I expect a lot of that gap fill to come in to play at 29.83. It has resistance at 22.87 but I don’t think it will hold. One of my favorite swings right now.

So this one didn’t do as well, but I am holding and I will enter with more of a position if it gets back up off it’s feet and starts trending up. Like I wrote, my time-frame is 3 months so I will be patient.

So $JUNO has continued to be soft… I am still in and holding – I will be looking for a long add when I get solid buy triggers. I will update mid week if I take a long position trade.

$CBMX

I wrote this last week:

This IMO opinion is a fantastic opportunity – but it does have its risk. You wll have to research the company on your own and make a determination for yourself. But if you find after your research that you think it’s a decent hold for a month or two it is one of the best swing plays on the market at this price IMO. I’m looking to add today to my position.

Well this one worked out well too, I am currently adding in near the 2.90 level. A mid term hold for (3 – 6 months) and I expect close to 50% gain on it. But it is high risk so set stops.

I am still in this. I will be adding to my position long if and when price nears the yellow line on chart.

$CBMX Swing Trade Chart

$CBMX Swing Trade Chart

This comment from last week remains the same:

That’s about it for this week. I am waiting for the market inflection to settle down and a little more of the indices to settle on the other side of this Trump trade before scaling in to any indices plays and the like. But as I said I am running about 40 charts on plays I am looking at and hope to start adding some of those for next Sunday!

Have a great week and if you have any questions email anytime!

Best of luck!

Email us with any questions!

Article Topics; Swing Trading, $JUNO, $CBMX, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX


 

So you want to trade options? You want to get rich quick? You want to be like that guy from Wolf of Wall Street(not Leo, every man wants to be Leo already). If you’ve answered yes to all three of these questions you’ve undoubtedly dabbled (or at least wanted to dabble) in cheap weekly options. There is no quicker way to make or lose a fortune than in high risk/high reward option plays. Below we are going to breakdown when these might be the right choice, and how to play them without blowing up your account.

Here are 4 “lotto options truths” to keep in mind before we dive in:

  • First off, I don’t recommend playing these on every position, and if you do I would suggest not building yourself a portfolio full of them. While it is fun logging in to your account and seeing a 50% increase, I can assure you the opposite is not quite so fun.
  • Secondly, these are typically always going to be front week plays or at most following week. What does this mean? This means that you need your move and you need it now. If there is a delay, the theta burn with eat your position alive.
  • Thirdly, only risk what you are willing to lose. With the high theta burn and large gamma risk, if you get choppy price action or price action moving against your position, they will become doughnuts in the blink of an eye.
  • Lastly, if the terms “Delta”, “Gamma”, “Theta”, or “Vega” are literally Greek to you, I would suggest doing a bit of studying on the mechanics of options before diving in head first. These are important terms when understanding how an option is prices, and how it will act in comparison to the underlying asset. I can do a basic review in the future, so shoot me a note if that would be worthwhile.

So if I am looking to play a high risk option, how do I go about it?  These are going to be quick plays, so MOMO, snap backs, or playing stocks for a bounce all would be decent set ups. I typically don’t play  lotto’s for earnings as they don’t offer great risk/reward in my opinion. These setups are the same whether option or common stock, but with lotto type options you can’t afford to be wrong or late. The above mentioned theta risk is inflated in lotto type plays, and this is only exacerbated by the fact that these will always start OTM or out of the money. You don’t necessarily need to get ITM or in the money to profit, but if you go the wrong way you have no safety net of any real intrinsic value attached.

After I’ve identified a stock and an expected move, you then have to take a look at the options grid and see how the different options are being priced, and what might make sense. Typically, I am looking for something with a high delta, at a realistic strike. The higher delta means that for movement in your predicted direction, you will get paid more. For example: if a call option has a delta of 1.00(sometimes noted as 100), for every $1 increase in the underlying stock, the call option will increase by $1.00 all else being equal. The other Greeks also come in to play here like gamma which will affect the rate of change in the delta, but you get the idea. So when looking at a lotto call for example, I want a high delta. Why? Because I want to get paid. These are high risk high reward remember, so if I get my move I want to get the payoff. A large majority of these will expire worthless so the winners need to win big for you. This is also where I define my risk. When you’re buying lotto plays, the chances of salvaging much of your buy in can often be low, so I will only buy what I am willing to lose outright. This helps not only curb large losses, but it also helps me manage my positions without large emotional swings. Manage your risk up front the best you can and it will go a long way towards success.

Let’s use an example from the room this week. I wanted to play $CHK for a bounce, but wasn’t too confident that I would get my move with some pending market weakness and overall choppy markets. I knew if it did bounce, it should have some legs as it recently came down hard from a swing high(good), but it had yet to break out of the bull flag pattern that I had it in(not so good). I could have waited for it to break out to the upside, but positive price movement and strength in oil lead to jumping on it now instead of waiting. If I would have waited for it to break out to the upside, I would have also likely had to move up at least a strike to get a similar set up which meant going to 8’s, and that didn’t leave me with much upside against the prior swing high of $8.20.

lotto1

They don’t call them lotto’s for nothing after all! So with $CHK trading at 7.03 and 8 days to expiry or DTE, I picked up a handful of the Dec 23 7.5 calls for .11 each. You will note the large delta and gamma which means that these options will explode with positive price movement. Yes, they will also bleed out if I don’t get my move. You will also notice the small price tag attached to each contract. If these got to zero tomorrow I won’t be elated, but I won’t lose any sleep over the loss either.

lotto2

Here’s what I ended up with, and you can see what I mean by keeping size small on a play like this. This was as of close on 12/15.

lotto3

Here is the same position, only one day later. The interesting move, and why our position is now worth less lies in the Theta. Above we had a large theta of -16.11, and now the theta is -14.57. This is the time value, and what is working against you with short duration options. Remember my saying that you need your move and you need it now? We got a 2% move in the underlying asset, and lost money day over day because of the Theta decay. Let’s also look at the Delta which increased for two reasons. The main reason that Delta increased is that the underlying asset moved in our favor, but the Vega also moved slightly which will increase the Delta as well. This also brought the Gamma along with it and we saw a large increase there. If the underlying asset would have stayed flat day over day, we could have expected a lower Delta as the time decay would have brought it down as remember that as expiry all out of the money options have a Delta of zero.

lotto4

As of now we are about even on the position, and all of the same rules apply moving forward. My typical goal for these lotto’s is to sell half of my position for a double, and let the other half “ride free” so to speak. This not only covers your costs for the initial purchase, but it also takes the pressure off and lets you manage the position knowing that you have already made your money back. I will do another post next weekend detailing how this ended up, and if $CHK brought me a present or a lump of coal for Christmas.

I hope you have a great week of trading, and send me a note in the room if this was worthwhile or if you would like to see something else discussed.

Mathew Waterfall

Twitter: https://twitter.com/quadzilla_jr


Good morning traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading newsletter for the week of Dec 12, 2016!

Don’t hesitate to email us at info@compoundtrading.com anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private mesage Curt in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.

My primary seven swing set-ups this week are:

FX: $USOIL $WTI

You can use a number of instruments to trade oil such as FX $USOIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO and more…. I am using $UCO for the long (by the way $UWTI AND $DWTI are being resurrected so I am very excited to be able to trade these again soon) and I am currently looking at a number of small cap and mid cap oil plays. Oil is in an obvious break-out (and since last report doing well).

The important thing with oil is to watch the Fibonacci levels, trend lines (diagonal and horizontal), your moving averages and your trading widths (margins / pivots). I can’t discuss the algorithm here but I can refer you to Epic the Oil Algo twitter feed for various public posts.

Widths / trading range pivots – Because oil is in a break-out you want to take your long positions at the bottom of the yellow lines and I as I mentioned in the last swing newsletter I WOULD NOT short oil in an uptrend at the top of the yellow lines. Wait to short it when it is in a confirmed downtrend – and now is not a confirmed downtrend. So right now I am looking for an entry long at a lower yellow line at 51.91 with a stop at 51.63 and I would exit before 54.43. See orange arrow. If that fails support and my stop gets hit then I will look at a long at next orange arrow down at 49.56 with a stop at 49.16 and I would exit before resistance at 51.90. If this also failed (the second entry arrow) oil is in a downtrend and levels would have to be looked at again to re-adjust.

If crude happens to get up over current resistance at 54.45 I would take a long position with a stop at 54.29 and if it works I would simply hold until crude finds its new trading range and reevaluate in a week or more but keep the stop in place. You can also move the stop up a bit as crude trades up in this instance.

Fibonacci Levels – As with last newsletter, because oil is in another break out I wouldn’t be comfortable taking a long or short position based on fib levels because they are skewed. Wait for this break-out to back-test and then look at the levels next Sunday night update.

MA – Oil is trading way above its MA’s so there is no concern here with long positions – but take the range pivots in to consideration first. When these become a possible issue I will advise.

Crude oil, swing trading chart

Orange arrows represent chart support for long trade in crude oil.

$GOLD – $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG

So last week I said;

Here again I cannot share the proprietary algorithm components of Rosie’s algo but I can share with you the publicly posted data. Rosie predicted in July that Gold would hit this range but also warned of a 90% chance that Gold would have to hit the bottom of a quadrant on her charting. That would put Gold near 1133.00. I am waiting to see if this occurs and I will take a long trade in $NUGT at that time with a normal swing stop of about 4% and then if uptrend confirms I will scale in at 3 stages. Initial order 2000 shares the 5000 then 10000 then 20000 adding at pullbacks.

The idea in swing trading is to catch the trend reversal and then scale in when confirmed.

Good thing I waited! Price has downtrended since. It isn’t at my preferred 1133.00 so I am going to watch – if it starts to take off upward I will start to nibble with long positions with tight stops. No particular level that I would do that – just if it started to move for any more than a day and it looked like it had momentum. Then slowly enter. BUT THE PREFERRED play is to wait for that 1133.00 WHICH COULD COME QUICK NOW.

Watch Rosie the Gold Algo twitter feed for intra-day updates that may occur.

Gold, Swing Trade

Gold Swing preferred target is 1133.00 ish for long trade.

$SILVER $SLV $USLV $DSLV

Silver is in exactly the same position as Gold – wait for the Gold confirmation before entering IMO. Use the same scaling principals. Watch SuperNova Silver twitter feed too.

I have always said that Silver will hold up better in a downtrend, but it doesn’t mean you take a long position yet. Sure, it came up a bit since last week, but the idea is to catch the tren reversal and scale in to it for a large gain over time.

Silver, Chart

Silver is in same positon with me as Gold. When Gold goes Silver wll go. $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

$VIX ($UVXY, $TVIX, $XIV)

$VIX

Last week I wrote:

I am going to enter a long position in $UVXY or $TVIX for a short term swing (less than 10 days hopefully) at as close to 12.20 as I can get – if I can’t get that I am looking at 12.77.

Considering the geo political environment I won’t be shorting the $VIX unless it gets really extended to topside – which it is not right now.

So it came down to my price target and I didn’t take a trade – I watched. Then it spiked and I would have had a short term gain. Now it’s sitting back at my buy target area and I am going to watch.

If it starts upward I will likely take a trade long in $TVIX or $UVXY and exit by ratcheting up my stops as it goes. Where exactly where I take that trade? I don’t know. But I’m getting more confident with it because of two reasons.

1. At the end of day Friday the there was $VIX insurance buying even while $SPY was spiking at end of day and $XIV (which is the opposite of $VIX) wasn’t moving like it normally does when there is a $SPY spike. Now, $VIX isn’t determined by $SPY but it is a signficant factor. So when they move in this way it is time to pay attention.

2. ALSO, the CNN fear and greed indicator is near all time highs for greed. If you study it out there is a correlation – when greed is this high 9 times out of 10 there is a spike in $VIX because if nothing else investors start taking out insurance. http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Now, if the $VIX does spike, and the spike is signficant I will short the $VIX because that is always easy money – but that is something that has to be determined on an intra level and I can’t give you levels here on a swing alert.

$VIX, Swing Trade

$VIX Swing trade

$SGY

Last week I wrote this:

I really like this swing as a low float energy play. But you have to set a stop at 4% or so and be ready to ratchet up stops as it gets closer to 8.00. This stock has a history of serious gains when oil gets in to break out mode.

Well… that worked out well. There was a really nice spike right that day for a great gain and it is trading this morning again for a nice gain.

The way to play this one now safe is to watch the oil trading chart and support levels I gave you. Wait for oil to hit one of those two support levels I show on the oil chart and play it exactly like you would oil as I wrote above. And, if oil gets up over that overhead resistance I outlined you can then go long $SGY vs. oil. Either way, if you take a long position at a support set your stop at about 4 – 5% and if you get lift ratchet your stops up as you go. There is no way to give you levels up if it goes – just ratchet up stops at your comfort level.

$SGY Swing trade alert worked well. 7.12 to 8.70 ish and 8.12 now.

$SGY swing trade

$SGY Swing trade alert worked well. 7.12 to 8.70 ish and 8.12 now.

$JUNO

Last week I wrote this:

This is a wash-out snap-back swing that I really like. It is up in premarket today but I believe there is a lot of room here. My timeframe is 3 months and I expect a lot of that gap fill to come in to play at 29.83. It has resistance at 22.87 but I don’t think it will hold. One of my favorite swings right now.

So this one didn’t do as well, but I am holding and I will enter with more of a position if it gets back up off it’s feet and starts trending up. Like I wrote, my time-frame is 3 months so I will be patient.

$JUNO Swing Trade

$JUNO Swing Trade

$CBMX

I wrote this last week:

This IMO opinion is a fantastic opportunity – but it does have its risk. You wll have to research the company on your own and make a determination for yourself. But if you find after your research that you think it’s a decent hold for a month or two it is one of the best swing plays on the market at this price IMO. I’m looking to add today to my position.

Well this one worked out well too, I am currently adding in near the 2.90 level. A mid term hold for (3 – 6 months) and I expect close to 50% gain on it. But it is high risk so set stops.

$JUNO Swing Trade

$JUNO Swing Trade

Other Swing Trades I am Looking in to:

Casino stocks: $WYNN $MPEL $MGM $LVS – but I can’t say right now that I will. I am also watching retail and tech for long positions, but not quite ready. Will update on this soon.

This comment from last week remains the same:

That’s about it for this week. I am waiting for the market inflection to settle down and a little more of the indices to settle on the other side of this Trump trade before scaling in to any indices plays and the like. But as I said I am running about 40 charts on plays I am looking at and hope to start adding some of those for next Sunday!

Have a great week and if you have any questions email anytime!

Best of luck.

Curtis

Article Topics; Swing Trading, $JUNO, $SGY, $CBMX, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX

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