Trading Strategy for US Dollar Trade Alert Issued This Morning in Premarket for the Swing Trade Positioning in to Week of August 5, 2019 Time Cycle.
This a very important trading opportunity not just for the US Dollar, but many other instruments of trade on the equity, commodity and currency markets are affected by the price of the US Dollar. Below is your complete trading strategy for the time cycle peak coming in the Dollar.
On public facing Twitter feeds the alert reads;
“Member Alert: Large US Dollar Index (DXY) time cycle week of Aug 5, 2019 (extends 7 trading days either side). Trade Set Up detail to your email in today’s premarket. #timecycles $DXY $UUP #USD #SwingTrading”
Member Alert: Large US Dollar Index (DXY) time cycle week of Aug 5, 2019 (extends 7 trading days either side). Trade Set Up detail to your email in today's premarket. #timecycles $DXY $UUP #USD #SwingTrading
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) August 1, 2019
On the private member alert feed the alert reads;
“US Dollar Index (DXY) Long trade likely to turn short other side of Aug 5 week, watch for report with all signals $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD”
https://twitter.com/SwingAlerts_CT/status/1156872463273402369
Below is the chart and link for the US Dollar (DXY) time cycle alert;
US Dollar Index (DXY) Long trade likely to turn short other side of Aug 5 week, watch for report with all signals $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD
US Dollar Index (DXY) Long trade likely to turn short other side of Aug 5 week, watch for report with all signals $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD
How to Trade the US Dollar (DXY) Time Cycle Peak.
The trading strategy for the US Dollar Index is simple if you use the model chart provided above.
In early 2018 we had alerted that the US Dollar was divergent to the downside and that a run in the dollar was imminent. The US Dollar traded up since that time from sub 90.00 to currently trading at 99.91.
When the US Dollar traded higher (after our alerts) it then reached the area of the main pivot (shown on chart above with horizontal red dotted line). The Dollar then traded around that pivot for some time. The trading pivot is important in your trading plan.
Simple Chart Symmetry and Price Targeting (price extensions) for this time cycle says to measure from the recent lows (trading just under 90.00) to the pivot area of 96.64 (about 7.00) and add the 7.00 approximately to 96.64 and you get about 103.50 ish. There are different ways to measure this – you can take the hard and fast support and resistance lines on the chart and measure from there or use exactly what price action said. In other words, the chart says support was 90.00, but the Dollar traded under 90.00 before it turned back up and got bullish. Depending on how you use those numbers this then determines your extension to the top. Lets call it 103.50 and use that for this example for your trading strategy.
The charting says the time cycle peak is the weak of Aug 5, 2019. This is a large time cycle so you have to allow for a week or so either side of the weak of the peak. Coming out of the other side of that peak the trade action (trading trajectory) will be key. You will either see a continuation of the current bullish trend or a turn to the bearish trade side. Probability says the price of the US Dollar will turn down. However, this is not always the case.
The chart says that 102.92 is your peak resistance price, but this can be extended up some for two reasons. One reason is the price extension you may measure from the previous lows, in this instance you would see the Dollar trade in to the 103s or 104s before turning. The other reason for a price higher than 102.92 is a simple over trade extension that happens at large time cycle tops and bottoms in trade – an over exaggerated move.
If the trade trajectory continues bullish then you simply extend the price up one structure above the current area of trade (see chart below). This is an unlikely scenario but it may occur. This bullish run would then peak in to the week of March 30, 2020 (this can change as we come near to the date, watch for charting updates). The price target in this scenario is 109.30 for March 30, 2020.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish trading strategy for 109s in to Mar 30 2020 $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD
US Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish trading strategy for 109s in to Mar 30 2020 $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD
The Bear scenario to short the US Dollar is more likely, below is your trading strategy.
As noted above, simply wait for the week of August 5, 2019 and watch trade the week on the other side. Watch the key resistance areas on the chart. Early on in to the time cycle start to size your trade and continue sizing the trade (in my case it will be short $UUP likely) and then start to take profit at each support on the way back down as the US Dollar trades lower in to March 30 of 2020.
It is important to get your full size in early enough but not too early so you get caught on the wrong side.
If you need help with the trade let me know.
Watch the chart resistance close as we trade the markets over the coming few weeks, watch the apex of the quad the US Dollar is trading in currently on the chart. Watch for the inflection points. You can also bring your time down to a daily or 4 hour chart to get a better feel for what trade is doing.
Also, be sure to watch our trade alerts on our alert feeds and in live trading room. If you need some coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed [email protected].
Thanks,
Curt
Other Reading:
US Dollar Index on Market Watch https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
Dollar hits two-year high after Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point as expected https://cnb.cx/2MsfQn1
Recent Swing Trade and Day Trading Reports (charts can be brought down to Day Trading time frame):
Master Trading Profit & Loss Statement (Most Recent – Updated Regularly – Check Blog for Updates):
Recent Daily Trading Profit & Loss Reports:
Trading Profit & Loss Report (Trades, Alerts) for July 8 $AMD, $BTC, $XBT_F, $CL_F, $USO
Trading Profit & Loss Report (Trades, Alerts) for July 3 $AMD, $BTC, $XBT_F, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO
Daily Trading Profit & Loss (Alerts) Report: July 2, 2019 $AMD, $BTC, $XBT_F, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO
Recent Premarket Notes (published as time allows, what we’re up to with our trading):
Premarket Notes July 31, 2019: FOMC, EIA, #OOTT, $USO, $NOV, $TREX, $CHEGG, $TSLA, $AMD …
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Article Topics: US Dollar, USD, Trading, Strategy, Charts, Algorithm, Currencies, Alerts, $DXY, Swing Trade, $UUP, time cycles