My Stock Trading Plan for November 2, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! Trade them well!

I have to admit, my trading plan today is a near carbon copy of yesterday with the exception of momentum stocks (of course have changed) and oil. So this will be short!

Most days this will be out much earlier – but our war room is bustling to say the least with algorithmic alarms firing off like never before (especially with time / price cycles terminating and proving that out in market trade in crude) and the election etc… and getting our trade room up bla bla. Yup busy – so soooon I’ll be more on top of it.

Below is a link to yesterday’s trading plan (recommended read ha) and if you haven’t visited EPIC the Oil Algo’s twitter feed you should – and try and listen better than I have to it lol.

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Today’s Momentum Stocks

I am looking at follow through possible with $VRX and watch my twitter feed or be in room for other momo’s.

Main Focus

My main focus will be to crude (finding a bottom for new time / price cycle)… so I will be very busy on my phone FYI with crude oil traders getting a feel for their positions (not that that has helped the last few days because they have taken a beating trying to catch the knife – EPIC laughs) and I will also be watching small cap metal stocks.

Of course we have the election and FOMC to watch out for too and the oil reports this morning and rigs on Friday.

FOMC is due at 2:00 EST http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/fomc-statement-earnings-deluge-in-the-spotlight-for-wall-street-us-election-eyed.html

Mortgage applications dropped and the ADP employment report wasn’t stellar to say the least.

And most importantly IMO is that (and I don’t know how many of you noticed) many YUGE traders on Wall Street (at least those in the public eye and online) had YUGE losses yesterday – so don’t buy the hype.

Watch the election momo – read my previous posts… I stand firm in that the dollar is strong but if Trump looks like he is going to win it could tank but against the MXN it will crush it… metals should rally… oil needs to find a bottom… natural gas needs to find a bottom soo and the market isn’t free (so watch out for the Fed WATCH CLOSE – oh and ya volatility – if you’re shorting (which is normally a decent play) I would think twice doing that soon – shorting volatility right now is a gamble (baccarat anyone? – BANKER!).

Ok, enough have a great day, review yesterday’s post and I’ll see you in the room. And don’t forget many of our technical issues will be sorted by Monday (read the daily room memo that updates that).

Stay blessed and bank and cut fast.

Curt

 


Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades for Monday October 31, 2016.

A quick review of trades in our chat room…

Metals were up in pre-market and $DXY US Dollar was in downdraft. Crude was looking to test traditional neckline and previous support (both horizontal and diagonal supports) and I was also considering EPIC the Oil Algo’s targets (albeit I didn’t recall the numerous warnings about time / price cycles).

So I took trades in $JNUG.

I also took a $UWTI trade that was a small win – but only by luck.

My big should have for the day was $VRX – of course my scanners caught it (and very quick – so they are firing perfect) but I just didn’t pull the trigger. $NSPR I didn’t take a trade on that super-nova (next move on IMO).

Our pre-launch for chat trade room can be distracting, especially with technology that we’re dealing with – but we’re getting there.

Anyway, HERE ARE THE QUICK LESSONS:

$JNUG trade – It was a winner but I should have got in earlier… it was an easy call… days earlier actually… but with my compound discipline I won’t beat myself up because it is safe – very safe and obviously works.

FX: $USOIL $WTI trade –  It was a lucky winner because there was a massive futures buy right before pit close. Very lucky – especially considering what trading looks like in overnight session. Mistakes were that I did not cut losses quick – I went in on 1/3 trades expecting to get a bounce at supports and the neckline at worst. Second mistake (and the biggest one I am learning) is that EPIC the oil Algo TOLD ME AND THE WORLD that the time / price cycles HAD IN FACT CHANGED – SO THERE WAS NO REASON TO EXPECT A BOUNCE! Really bad mistake and I was lucky to get out.

$VRX – The lesson there is simple…. it was a simple news bounce on that play. Pure and simple. Don’t be distracted.

Look forward to seeing you in the trading chat room!

Best to you.

Curtis

 


Review of my Stock DayTrades for Monday October 31, 2016.

My day online with wallstreet started about 8 hours before market open… getting my Pre Market Report ready… because of course it was our first day in our new chat room!

 

And ohhhh it was a good one (the premarket report)… and then WHAM! we were given our first opportunities in patience this morning when the internet throttled everything … I mean everything we were doing (my mobile couldn’t even run my twitter feed for the first hour let alone bandwidth intensive software), we couldn’t onboard many guests and more lol… so it will be nice when our permanent offices here are set-up soon. Until then we will continue on (with some minor aggravations like limited screen share but most issues we have arranged temporary solutions to get by).

Anyway… it actually worked out ok anyway because the market was really quite in the morning – especially the momentum plays… they did come alive but faded and there was no power hour to speak of. I did have the miners set for a possible buy and they did run – but I would have been light because I am pensive about running too far with them too fast – but soon I think they’re gone along with metals…. so it is a balance.

Momentum Stocks

The stock scanners are working really well (here’s a free stock scanner from Finviz if you’d like), that was proven in the room this morning. I looked on my Twitter feed (did symbol searches to see who was on it first) and our alerts with momentum stocks were within seconds of the first alerts – which considering that is not our primary trading thing… not bad I suppose.

$BCRD was the first momentum stock with a halt. I took an entry at 10.46 (missed the initial spike after halt – it really hit unusually hard there)… then added at 10.61 looking for follow through to 10.94.

$BRCD Stock Trade

$BRCD Stock Trade

brcd-stock-trade

Of course in the chat room the folks in there knew in advance of my Twitter stream what I was doing and where I added and where I was trimming. The voice broadcasting in the trade room seems to be an asset for sure – I think I and the other traders will find it useful (very quick and efficient and right on top of the action).

Then $NVCN was on a rocket ship…

And there were other plays – so we shared the charts, some  voice broadcast and plays on $INTX, $HMNY, $NTD, $TWTR, $CETX, $BRCD, $NVCN, $ATOS, $AUY and my favorite miss of the day YUP because I was distracted $JNUG and I guess $TVIX or $UVXY.

Crude Oil $USOIL $WTI

Crude had an awful day but it gave me a chance to trail out of my large swing position in $DWTI from a few weeks back in 1/3 chunks so that worked really for me – for my second win of the day.

Through-out the day in the room I was looking for a bounce in crude over and over again because of course it normally bounces at trend-line support, Fibonacci retracements, or algorithmic trend-lines…. but nope it did not so I did not take a day-trade on $UWTI or any oil small cap stocks etc.

I see this evening it did get lift and IT GOT LIFT RIGHT WHERE I WAS GOING TO TAKE A TRADE EOD in the chat-room but decided against it.

Crude Oil FX $USOIL $WTI Worksheet

Crude Oil FX $USOIL $WTI Worksheet

The mornings pre-market report will be YUGE!

Best!

Curtis


A review of my daytrades Friday October 28, 2016.

Friday for me (actually all week)… was a tad distracting, which is not what a technical daytrader wants obviously (travelling and trade room set-up etc).

Nonetheless, there was one trade executed (should have been three or four) – and the one was moderately green. BUT! I’m looking forward to next week and I’ve promised myself to keep lazer focused.

The in-depth daily chart / algo reporting with each instrument I’m trading will not only assist the trader’s in the trade room this week – but myself also…. it’s nice to have super lazer focused preparation work to trade from (instead of on the fly – on the fly is not where I personally function best.

Ok, on to what happened today – hopefully my errors will help you avoid the same mistakes or lost opportunities.

The FX: $USOIL $WTI long trade using $UWTI

So we started the day off with the #OPEC shenanigan continuance in Vienna (the birth place of my grandfather BTW), which ended in a no oil deal Saturday and a promise to return to discussions Nov 25, 26 2017.

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/3820.htm

This I was considering as a possible catalyst for a long trade in crude oil, especially considering that the price of oil was below 50.00 and the oil producers have an amazing knack of timing their announcements right at critical points in the oil chart – even down to the termination of time / price cycles in oil. I’m convinced they are no slouches because they’re releasing announcements or chatter at points EPIC the oil algo has even identified as critical – time and time again. So knowing that EPIC had identified time / price cycle terminations and the fact that critical support was being tested AND that the price of oil was sub 50.00 was opportune timing for an announcement – but we didn’t get one – which was WAY OUT OF PATTERN for the oil producers.

$DXY was testing support… but crude was at a support that I wanted to take a trade from (it wasn’t preferable to take a crude trade when $DXY was testing support – you want $DXY to fail resistance preferably and crude to bounce and confirm off support ideally)… but I took the trade anyway because the chances of a bounce were considerable (probabilities were on my side with support bounce for sure). The other consideration was EPIC the oil Algo’s primary alpha algo targets. THE MISTAKE I MADE was that I was dealing with phone calls and various service people for the set-up of our trade room and I set a stop – and it triggered. I hate stops and usually don’t use them. Anyway, there was a small gain. Crude did take off for a nice trade after my stop was triggered but tanked to EPIC’s primary alpha algo target zone when news hit about Anthony Wiener. Which blew my mind because that was EPIC’s primary target – funny in my thinking. Epic is Epic and I should just surrender to it.

Anyway, here is that time period on Friday…

$DXY US Dollar testing support (not ideal for a long crude oil trade – I use $UWTI specifically)

My $UWTI long execution.

$DXY now at low of day… not the best scenario (I didn’t know at the time that the dollar was going to tank and breach shortly thereafter).

My distracted stop for small gain – ugh… especially when you consider what happened next…

So to throw fuel on my wounded supertrader spirit $DXY then breached a diagonal support… and I was awe man seriously? Weak dollar… strong oil (in a normal world).

So here’s the spike in oil after my stop exit… (BTW – the lower alpha algo target on this chart was actually misplace in accordance to EPIC’s call – EPIC’s target was much lower – which funny enough got a hit in the target zone – not perfect but in the zone).

So crude $USOIL $WTI got a really decent bounce before it tanked and would have been a fantastic trade (likely 4% on $UWTI – I didn’t actually look yet lol – painful) and then the price tanked right in to the target zone (not a perfect hit) but holy price tank thanks to Anthony Weiner news. If you look through EPIC the oil algo’s history on our website and on Epic the Oil Algo’s Twitter Feed you will see time and time again how right before the alpha target call the price of oil magically spikes or drops (and many times dramatically) right in to the target zone or very very close. It’s really interesting if you look at it over time.

The price of crude oil tanking right in to the primary alpha algo target zone EPIC had identified.

Below is EPIC’s call on it earlier in the week… the percentage represents how many times out of 100 EPIC has calculated that exact target will hit – and yup… the primary target zone hit – crazy IMO… I’m his inventor and I still struggle to understand how pure math can determine primary targets days in advance 92% or so of the time… and that’s not even the best way to use EPIC – the best way is intraday (which we will be doing lots of in the room). The intraday quadrants aren’t even represented on these recent charts – you can go back in to EPIC’s story to see the intra-day quadrant work sheet (which doesn’t do anyone any good now for trading because the time/price cycle has changed since, but it will show you what I mean – they look like diamonds – they’re pink)… anyway those quadrants allow for precise intra-day trading success easily over 90% scalping all day long (we had to remove them from the current charts because we’re in the process of patent applications).

Then on to the $VIX trade I missed lol – what a day…

So at this point $VIX was at resistance (if you can really say it has support and resistance)… but anyway – it is an indicator of sorts… so I was watching close for it to take off.. and then yup – you guessed it – I got distracted with other details in my business life lol and then WIENER presented the BEST TRADE OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK!!! Ugh… anyway I would have been all over $TVIX trade but nope… SO STAY FOCUSED! That’s Lesson #2 so far in this post (Lesson #1 was follow your trade plan unlike I did with oil above).

Here’s the Anthony Weiner announcement…

So the $TVIX trade was worth an easy 10% gain…

$TVIX trade

$TVIX trade

I guess the only other main daytrade miss I had was $JNUG, and my trade-plan with it was simply based on the fact that the day before $JDST got a serious lift (at one point it was +8.18%)… so I was watching for a natural pull-back and a bounce in $JNUG. SO the opportunity came just before lunch and at the double-bottom that would have been an excellent place to enter.

$JUNG Trade

$JUNG Trade

There were other miscellaneous things… but that’s the bulk of lessons from my errors of the day as I see it.

BE SURE TO READ THE PRE-MARKET REPORT BEFORE MONDAY OPEN!!! Oil and metals are VERY LIKELY going to have a big week. Not to mention the market in general considering the election turmoil.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

Curtis


Good morning stock traders!

$SPY $ES_F

I don’t expect any $SPY related trading until election unless there is some unexpected “width” in trade.

$VIX – $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

I do expect to be trading $VIX related instruments between now and election… however, with current chart I would like an entry when $VIX closer to 13. It is currently 15.2.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

$DXY is far from broken – break-out still intact. Upside resistance levels. Currently at 98.84. Look for further run in $DXY ($UUP), $FXY (Japan Yen) continued pressure,  $CNY (China Renminbi/USD ETN) continued deval, possible continued run with $TZA (small cap bear), and $SMK / $EWW (Mexico) I am watching for an election play.

FX $USOIL $WTI – $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Crude #Oil

Crude is well above its traditional charting diagonal and horizontal trend line supports and within its trading range. EPIC the Oil algorithm published targets for 1:00 today and current price action is almost perfectly between the two main alpha algo targets published. There is a significant time / price cycle terminating no later than Tuesday Nov 1 at 9:00 PM ET and normally price will move in or out of current trading range before the termination. In this case my bet is a movement before 4:30 PM Tuesday but it could be anytime now.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

I was looking for an entry in $GLD at the 114.00 / 115.00 area (intra-day price 120.98) – but I don’t think now I will get that before the election (that was the plan so I will watch). Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target.

Even with the pressure on the miner’s yesterday (even though a pull-back is likely short-term), I am looking for that move to continue over next week – again with election things are more difficult to future cast.

Going in to election however, I am very bullish most commodities. WITHIN DAYS I WILL BE HUNTING DOWN company equities specific to a strong move I see coming very very SOON.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

My thesis was the recent run-up (which we got and I miss timed) – but short term as with Gold I expect on level down in the elevator (again, could be wrong) so that is what I will watch for.

Summary

With all of the charts relating to the above I will be watching for support and resistance levels that make sense to trade (trying to only take trades on major pivots is important). Next week our charting and algo charting publications will become very detailed (in separate reports) which will make this discussion and trade planning more clear as a result of the detail (and the chat room / broadcasting will be going live – that will help clarity and intra-trading too).

Have a great day! May you bank and bank more! Freedom is calling your name!

Curt

PS: Other…

US GDP on deck as I write – looks like a small increase..

Rig count today 13:00 EST

Premarket: http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616695/a-peek-into-the-markets-u-s-stock-futures-edge-higher-alphabet-posts-upb

12 Stocks To Watch:
AMGN, AMZN, CVX, Data Processing & Outsourced Services, Earnings, EXPE, GOOGL, Health Care.

http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616065/12-stocks-to-watch-for-october-28-2016

 

 


Today (yesterday really as this is late) was a frustrating day… two triggers and two losses and zero wins – one of the first days like that for a while. Fortunately the entries were not huge.

Hopefully some of my mistakes will help your trading.

$SPY $XIV $TVIX $UVXY

I am likely going to stay away from $SPY related trades until the election and $VIX related trades until right before the election.

$DXY US Dollar Index

The day started with the $DXY threatening… and oil initially did respond to it but as the day progressed oil continued to get lift off the diagonal trendline (blue on oil charts). So that was my first miss (lesson # 1) – the trend line was a high probability trigger that I should have pulled on (I would have been long $UWTI).

FX: $USOIL $WTI

As the US Dollar continued its assault $TZA continued to rise (a reminder of my alert near bottom a number of days ago that I didn’t take full advantage of) – lesson # 2.

$UGAZ

Lesson # 3 is in following through with your trade plan. Now, it is important to understand the difference between a intra-day swing trade plan and my normal trade method. My normal method is to “time” an entry so that I pull the trigger literally right before a spike so that I get 1 – 3% room to decide if I want to stay in a trade through the pullback etc… when I entered $UGAZ I wasn’t confident I’d get that 1 – 3%… I got a bit and then it pulled back and it became uncomfortable and I sold AND THEN OF COURSE IT RAN. So the lesson was obviously if I had a plan for it (which I did as I did foresee it running) then I should have been prepared for the pullback. Anyway, in the trade room I’ll be able to explain in advance of pulling trigger which trade is which type in advance of pulling trigger. Bottom line… should have stayed in it because it went in to rippy mode shortly after I sold. I should also note that when I pulled the trigger, part of the reason was I thought I’d get a bounce off the 200 MA on the 1 min as it did bounce in that way earlier a few times.

White arrows are entry and exit – you can see my entry was right above 200 and it didn’t hold. That should have either caused me to exit immediately or hold for the full swing.

$UGAZ trade - 200 MA on 1 Minute chart failed.

$UGAZ trade – 200 MA on 1 Minute chart failed.

Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Lesson #4 for the day was the inverse Gold Miner’s trade… I was all over it the night before and in the morning and got distracted with the $UGAZ trade… $JDST and $DUST were great trade opportunities missed.

$CVI – CVR Energy

This was actually a good risk reward and when it didn’t spike on a double bottom after a significant downdraft I did exit – so my risk reward was intact and normally I win in this trade. It didn’t turn my way this time… but I wouldn’t do it any different next time. You have to accept the risk with this trade.

So those were my lessons for the day! Hopefully the help your trading some!

Stay blessed and see you for Friday session soon!

Curt

 

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