02
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($VRX, $SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for November 2, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! Trade them well!

I have to admit, my trading plan today is a near carbon copy of yesterday with the exception of momentum stocks (of course have changed) and oil. So this will be short!

Most days this will be out much earlier – but our war room is bustling to say the least with algorithmic alarms firing off like never before (especially with time / price cycles terminating and proving that out in market trade in crude) and the election etc… and getting our trade room up bla bla. Yup busy – so soooon I’ll be more on top of it.

Below is a link to yesterday’s trading plan (recommended read ha) and if you haven’t visited EPIC the Oil Algo’s twitter feed you should – and try and listen better than I have to it lol.

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Today’s Momentum Stocks

I am looking at follow through possible with $VRX and watch my twitter feed or be in room for other momo’s.

Main Focus

My main focus will be to crude (finding a bottom for new time / price cycle)… so I will be very busy on my phone FYI with crude oil traders getting a feel for their positions (not that that has helped the last few days because they have taken a beating trying to catch the knife – EPIC laughs) and I will also be watching small cap metal stocks.

Of course we have the election and FOMC to watch out for too and the oil reports this morning and rigs on Friday.

FOMC is due at 2:00 EST http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/fomc-statement-earnings-deluge-in-the-spotlight-for-wall-street-us-election-eyed.html

Mortgage applications dropped and the ADP employment report wasn’t stellar to say the least.

And most importantly IMO is that (and I don’t know how many of you noticed) many YUGE traders on Wall Street (at least those in the public eye and online) had YUGE losses yesterday – so don’t buy the hype.

Watch the election momo – read my previous posts… I stand firm in that the dollar is strong but if Trump looks like he is going to win it could tank but against the MXN it will crush it… metals should rally… oil needs to find a bottom… natural gas needs to find a bottom soo and the market isn’t free (so watch out for the Fed WATCH CLOSE – oh and ya volatility – if you’re shorting (which is normally a decent play) I would think twice doing that soon – shorting volatility right now is a gamble (baccarat anyone? – BANKER!).

Ok, enough have a great day, review yesterday’s post and I’ll see you in the room. And don’t forget many of our technical issues will be sorted by Monday (read the daily room memo that updates that).

Stay blessed and bank and cut fast.

Curt

 

31
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for November 1, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! Trade them well!

On Watch: Momentum Follow-Through Stocks:

Looking for potential follow-through on $BRCO, $INTX, $HMNY, $NTP, $TWTR, $CETX, $NVCN, $ATOS, $AUY

I won’t explain in detail what I’m looking for in this forum (I’ll do that in that trade room for each that are considered as / if they are considered).

Monday’s momo:

$BRCO + 22%

$INTX +25%

$HMNY +7.14%

$NTP + 7.86%

$TWTR +1.64%

$CETX +5.26%

$NVCN +29.96%

$ATOS +21.05%

$AUY +4.09%

On Watch: Morning Momentum stocks TBD.

$SPY Set-up / Volatility $XIV $TVIX $UVXY $VXX 

I think there is a set-up with $SPY… wait for volatility and play it – beyond that I’m not trading $SPY or related instruments because I believe the Fed is in there and has it pinned – period. Not enough width IMO.

$SPY, $TVIX, $XIV, $UVXY

Trading $SPY Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX Etc)

$VIX – Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX, etc)

My problem with $VIX is that I can’t take a trade this high in $UVXY etc. because I would want $VIX closer to 13 (but it may get away on me) and I can’t take a trade in $XIV etc because I don’t expect volatility to settle down before the election. So I’m watching very close between now and the election. I believe there will be daily opportunity here starting Wednesday at latest – there was lots of “insurance” buys Monday… so Tuesday may even open an opportunity.

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

There is nothing broken in the US Dollar Index chart IMO. The continued targets I’ve previously posted stand unless conditions change.

$DXY, US Dollar Index

$DXY US Dollar Index 1114 PM Nov 1

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust – Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

If you’re thinking of taking a position in Gold Miner’s this is good to follow. Last night it started to turn around and miner’s ran Monday (so no surprise and should have been an easy trade – distracted lol) so watch it if it continues to rise 9/10 times miner’s will follow… I even watch it with Gold plays and even before I take a small cap Gold company or miner position.

$FXY, Yen

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust Oct 31 1121 PM

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear

Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically – it can be a great daytrade.

$TZA

$TZA, Small Cap Bear 3x

$SMK / $EWW (Mexico Capped ETF)

If you think Trump is going to win you want to short $EWW or play $SMK (however thinly traded).

Crude Oil: FX $USOIL $WTI | FXCM $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

So crude had a significant downdraft Monday (OPEC / non OPEC couldn’t get it together I guess)… and ended up trading down to a diagonal trend-line (blue) from a previous time / price cycle and very near a horizontal price support (purple) and it appears that it will be heading for the nearest target EPIC the Oil Algo called. And to make matters worse (if you review a simple chart) the neckline support with oil has been breached (not that I give that much consideration).

I was going to take a long position in $UWTI at end of day but didn’t and will strongly consider one in the morning.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Looking for entry $GLD at 114.00 / 115.00 area – but I don’t think I will get that before the election.

Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target closer to 1177.00.

On Friday I wrote that I expected Gold Miner’s to run Monday and that occurred – I will be watching them close. There again wanted a pull-back I don’t think I’m going to get.

Going in to election I am very bullish most commodities. I am currently running charts on miner companies too.

$JNUG +7.42% Monday

$JUNG

$JUNG October 31 – Junior Gold Miner’s Bull 3x

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

$SLV, Silver

$SLV Silver

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

Here also, with natural gas I am looking for one level lower for an entry. It’s at 2.99 overnight and an ideal entry would be 2.86 (or at least a review there).

$UGAZ was off 9.42% on Monday so I will watch close Tuesday.

$UGAZ

$UGAZ Oct 31 -9.42%

The Finviz stock screener is available here:  http://finviz.com/.

Look forward to seeing you in the chat room. Visit www.compoundtrading.com and click on the link on the main page to enter the chat room.

Curtis

28
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, $USOIL Oil, $DXY, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Good morning stock traders!

$SPY $ES_F

I don’t expect any $SPY related trading until election unless there is some unexpected “width” in trade.

$VIX – $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

I do expect to be trading $VIX related instruments between now and election… however, with current chart I would like an entry when $VIX closer to 13. It is currently 15.2.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

$DXY is far from broken – break-out still intact. Upside resistance levels. Currently at 98.84. Look for further run in $DXY ($UUP), $FXY (Japan Yen) continued pressure,  $CNY (China Renminbi/USD ETN) continued deval, possible continued run with $TZA (small cap bear), and $SMK / $EWW (Mexico) I am watching for an election play.

FX $USOIL $WTI – $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Crude #Oil

Crude is well above its traditional charting diagonal and horizontal trend line supports and within its trading range. EPIC the Oil algorithm published targets for 1:00 today and current price action is almost perfectly between the two main alpha algo targets published. There is a significant time / price cycle terminating no later than Tuesday Nov 1 at 9:00 PM ET and normally price will move in or out of current trading range before the termination. In this case my bet is a movement before 4:30 PM Tuesday but it could be anytime now.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

I was looking for an entry in $GLD at the 114.00 / 115.00 area (intra-day price 120.98) – but I don’t think now I will get that before the election (that was the plan so I will watch). Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target.

Even with the pressure on the miner’s yesterday (even though a pull-back is likely short-term), I am looking for that move to continue over next week – again with election things are more difficult to future cast.

Going in to election however, I am very bullish most commodities. WITHIN DAYS I WILL BE HUNTING DOWN company equities specific to a strong move I see coming very very SOON.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

My thesis was the recent run-up (which we got and I miss timed) – but short term as with Gold I expect on level down in the elevator (again, could be wrong) so that is what I will watch for.

Summary

With all of the charts relating to the above I will be watching for support and resistance levels that make sense to trade (trying to only take trades on major pivots is important). Next week our charting and algo charting publications will become very detailed (in separate reports) which will make this discussion and trade planning more clear as a result of the detail (and the chat room / broadcasting will be going live – that will help clarity and intra-trading too).

Have a great day! May you bank and bank more! Freedom is calling your name!

Curt

PS: Other…

US GDP on deck as I write – looks like a small increase..

Rig count today 13:00 EST

Premarket: http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616695/a-peek-into-the-markets-u-s-stock-futures-edge-higher-alphabet-posts-upb

12 Stocks To Watch:
AMGN, AMZN, CVX, Data Processing & Outsourced Services, Earnings, EXPE, GOOGL, Health Care.

http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616065/12-stocks-to-watch-for-october-28-2016

 

 

26
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Gold, Silver, $USOIL $WTI, $DXY and more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Welcome!

We are looking forward to our pre-launch next week in the trading room (chat and live broadcast). This week we will start with light fare pre-market newsletters and after-market reports – over the coming weeks the reports will expand considerably in detail and depth, but for now we will keep it light to get in to the flow.

This morning I won’t publish a trade plan for VIX, Gold, Silver, SPY and Oil… but will increasingly provide a trade plan in these morning newsletters over the coming days (the ramp up). What I will provide is my basic trade plan for oil (you will find below) and comment generally on the others.

$VIX

I am looking for significant volatility between now and the election and even after. So I am watching day to day. I play $XIV $TVIX $UVXY and will explain in more detail as the coming days in to our pre-launch come.

$SPY

I am currently not trading any securities against our algorithmic calculations with SPY. Of all the algo calculations we are processing right now – this one is most uneventful. I am hoping that after the election this changes. So of the algo calculations and trading plans you will see us develop in more detail on these reports leading up to our launch, the $SPY algo is lagging the others. It’s coming – but the pre-election environment is not the best time-frame for algorithmic trading specific to S&P 500. The intra-day stuff, sure… and that will be covered in our trade room coming up.

Silver and Gold.

Right now I am sitting on my hands. I was waiting for a level down in both to retest previous support. I will say that my trade plan is VERY bullish come just before or after election. But still waiting. Our algos have been testing very precise with both so I am excited to trade these (and associated equities) in the coming weeks.

$DXY

The US Dollar. I have been posting for some time on my twitter feed about an impending break-out (which is here). We haven’t posted a lot about our algo development with $DXY, but I can tell you we are testing one and will be releasing it within a month or so. It is testing VERY precise and look forward to trading associated equities with it in our trading room over the next few weeks. I posted yesterday that I thought it should rest for a bit… and it has – it is now testing previous resistance to upside. I would be VERY cautious with it and watch for more lift especially if you are trading oil related equities etc… crude oil reacted in a strong way to the Dollar as the day went on yesterday. Early in the day not so much but as the day went on the affects of the Dollar (and obviously OPEC chatter) seemed to weigh on crude (it was a delayed effect).

EPIC the Oil Algo. FX: $USOIL $WTI (can be used as a trader’s edge for futures, $DWTI, $UWTI, $CL_F and more).

We just published the adjusted forecasts for EPIC the Algo alpha targets for Tuesday 10:30 AM and we will revise the Friday 1:00 PM ET forecasts soon. They are posted to EPIC’s twitter feed https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo.

These forecasts are simply targets that run along the algo trading pivot or trend-lines. Algos (machines) will move price from target to target in accordance to market direction. As such, trading with this type of system is much better done on an intra-day basis (hence why our trading room is opening). Nonetheless, in the meantime the targets can be used to trade against. So in our charts you will notice red trend-lines (this are the alpha algo trend-lines), you will also notice traditional charting diagonal trend-lines in blue (the thicker they are the more important they are) and also horizontal traditional trend-lines (purple). We also publish the charts with the 20, 50, 100, 200 day traditional MA. What is missing are the algo quadrants that allowing for precise intra-day trading (these will be on the charts in the trading room for each subscriber to each algorithm). What you also don’t see on the charts are other traditional indicators such as VWAP, MAC cross-over etc… we do not publish them to the charts because quite frankly there are many and our charting is “busy” enough.

Crude, Oil, WTI, Stocks

Crude algo intra work sheet 748 AM ET Oct 26, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Above is the most recent crude chart. The arrow on the far right shows a traditional charting TL that is obviously critical to the support of pricing in the current time / price cycle that crude is in right now. The middle arrow is pointing at a traditional horizontal trend-line (purple) that has just been breached. The upper arrow is a diagonal trend-line that is also critical on the upper side. As long as the price of oil stays between the upper blue T line and the lower t line nothing has changed. I would even venture to say the lower purple horizontal support at the bottom of the chart above keeps this time / price cycle in play. And don’t forget, we’re waiting for more “deal” news out of the oil boys soon.

While crude remains in this trading zone I will continue to buy the dips and sell the rips. However, I do trade around the important weekly reports and do utilize the algo quadrants that we will be discussing in the trading room. If the trading range is breached, we then reset and find the new range and trade in it. That’s basically how I’ve traded ($UWTI and $DWTI) with near 95% accuracy for some time.

Watch the support and resistance trend-lines I have explained after the oil report this morning!!! This will establish whether oil remains in this trade range or not. If it does not we will post updates to EPIC’s Twitter feed regularly of course!

Chatter this morning about oil:

S&P GLOBAL PLATTS PREVIEW OF U.S. EIA DATA: LIKELY TO SHOW CRUDE STOCKS ROSE 400,000 BARRELS

https://www.platts.com/pressreleases/2016/102516/no

Oil prices are too gloomy on chance of OPEC deal

So that is my basic trade plan – I know it is light and in coming days it will become much more precise and informative. We’re working around the clock right now to get the trade room up so I appreciate the support from the early subscribers (guys and gals I am happy to report) and you can look forward to detail, detail, detail over the coming days!

Stay blessed.

Curt

PS

Early movers..

 

 

 

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