Monday Dec 12, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)
Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.
IMPORTANT NOTICES:
NEW: The is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most.” If you are using our algorithms it is a must read.
ETN’s: $UWTI and $DWTI have been resurected by CitiGroup! $UWT and $DWT http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB
LOCKED POSTS: Starting mid December the Member Editions will become available (be unlocked to general public) within days of original publication. Portions that include algorithmic calls and charting that are still in play will not be published until they expire.
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.
LIVE CHARTS: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.
PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.
24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24 hr crude oil trade room.
PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-over existing members will be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. If you need assistance email your questions to [email protected], message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.
FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:
BIG NEWS! Friday premarket I gave you this in the report:
IF $USOIL IS TRADING ABOVE 51.38 THERE IS A REALLY IMPORTANT TIME / PRICE CYLE EXPIRING AT LATEST DEC 13 at 4:00 AM. AT LATEST. This means 98.5% of the time there will be a significant uptrend or downward trend established. WATCH VERY CLOSE. If you review my Twitter feed you will see that I AM ALWAYS RIGHT ABOUT THESE and the price normally drastically moves well before the termination of the time price cycle. IF PRICE IS TRADING UNDER 51.38 YOU CAN DISREGARD THIS NOTICE.
KABOOM!!!
My call to members Friday morning – and what happened next….Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 307 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo
My call to members Friday morning – to be cont… Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 307 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo
Link to the Trading View Live Charting (Member locked version):
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/QIRTUtPW-USOIL-Member-Live-Chart/
$USOIL Member Live Chart by curtmelonopoly on TradingView.com
Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 51.31 (634 ET Dec 9, 2016). Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge (advance algorithmic modeling in member edition);
Crude Oil, Intra-day, Chart
Crude oil trading intra-day at 51.20 Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 413 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo
From My Friday Report:
Crude is trading above mid range in its upward channel – AS I HAVE BEEN REPORTING DAILY don’t listen to anyone that says this bearish – it is not – trade the margin widths of the channel if unsure. This report (exactly 24 hours after the one yesterday) and oil is up 1.00.
And what happened next is certainly NOT BEARISH. Don’t forget (and in case you don’t know) EPIC the Oil Algo posted months ago a 72% change that by end of April crude would be between 63.00 – 73.00.
And then also from my Friday premarket Oil Report…. I directed you to the fact that crude was trading toward the alpha algo targets for Friday at 1:00.
Crude oil moving toward algo targets. Crude algo intra work sheet 639 AM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo
KABOOM!!!
What happened next was a direct oil algo call hit right to the penny and the exact minute!!!! I am, if you don’t mind me saying, ON FIRE!
In the called target zone again! Crude algo intra work sheet 1221 PM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo
In the called target zone again! Crude algo intra work sheet 1221 PM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo
So in review, the alpha algo lines were target hits last week, the alpha algo targets were hitting…. and best yet the time / price cycle hit – it not only hit, but it hit in a really precise way. I called the exact price to watch for!!! When you learn how to trade my time / price cycle termination notices you will never leave me. That I can guarantee:)
The only algo indicator missing right now (that I developed proprietary also) are the intra-day quadrants for sniping – crude needs to settle in a natural trading state and then I can publish these. So when the geopolitical folks stop messing with the price of crude I will publish them. They are very, very precise. You may want to also review my Twitter feed since you did last to be sure you’re up to date there also just in case FYI.
Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:
For swings, trade between the yellow lines – they are your primary support and resistance. If price gets up over that upper yellow line at 54.49 the trade between that line as support for longs as long as it stays above and ratchet up your stops when it gets close to major resistance at 54.49, 55.17, 58.37 and 58.57. There are of course other support and resistance lines – but those are they big ones.
Also, pay attention to the upward trending channel – you can enter long and sell in between the channel yellow lines as it trends.
If price stays below the resistance at 54.49 then you trade the channel under that.
If you have any questions email info@compoundtrading with direct questions for direct answers. Or ask in the trade room in a private message to the lead trader.
Primary support and resistance trendlines and horiztontal lines. Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 439 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Look at the chart above – you will see where the diagonal trendlines are trending – WATCH THEM CLOSE. And remember you can come in to the chatroom to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this blog so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA
Because of the overnight trading break-out the 20, 50, 100, 200 are well above the trading price – so watch the live updates as they are sent or be sure to watch your charting. Watch all the MA’s on the various time-frames for signals in your trading. Most specifically the 200 on the 30 and 15 min charts. Really important price stays above the 200 on the 30 or even 1 hr. As price trades tighter to the MA’s I will update you also.
Fibonacci Levels:
Normally Fib lines for me are a big deal. But with the recent break-out I wouldn’t pay much attention. The reason is simple… you will find that major trendlines on this chart will correspond with major fib resistance and support 99% of the time, but more than that we need to let price settle in a trading zone outside of geopolitical interference and then your fib lines we can dial in for precision trades.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Advanced Charting:
Respect support and resistance lines:
If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines for now that is your highest probability trading. With the recent geo political mess it makes the algo targets difficult because crude is not trading in its “natural” state that occurs when the geo political banter stops.
Crude oil is still bullish – don’t listen to the noise. If this changes I will let you know. In the meantime trade the range or snipe knowing your lines and targets.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Well, we know from my celebration at the outset of this article that we hit the time / price cycle from last week…. IF $USOIL IS TRADING ABOVE 51.38 THERE IS A REALLY IMPORTANT TIME / PRICE CYCLE EXPIRING AT LATEST DEC 13 at 4:00 AM. AT LATEST. This means 98.5% of the time there will be a significant uptrend or downward trend established. WATCH VERY CLOSE. If you review my Twitter feed you will see that I AM ALWAYS RIGHT ABOUT THESE and the price normally drastically moves well before the termination of the time price cycle. IF PRICE IS TRADING UNDER 51.38 YOU CAN DISREGARD THIS NOTICE.
The time price cycle terminations are use-less to give you right now because the price of crude is right in between a tonne of price decisions – and depending on where price trades intra-day will depend on when the time / cycle terminates. SO WHAT YOU NEED TO DO IS COME IN TO THE ROOM AND ASK ME TO GIVE YOU THE CURRENT TIME / PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS BASED ON CURRENT PRICE AND I WILL. Until then the time cycle terminations are o Dec 12 at 5PMl Dec 13 12 AM, Dec 13 1:00 AM, Dec 14 1 AM, Dec 19 6 AM but with-out knowing where price is going to be during those cycles I can’t tell you right now if they are in play. So ask as needed intra-day until the price of crude finds its range.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
I can report that the price action since Nov 30 break-out has been respecting the alpha algo trend-lines calculated and published over a week ago with precision.
In the chart below the arrows are for the targets (in the next section below) – the lines however represent where crude will track price – so watch for which line is closest and when price trends away from the line you know where your next alpha line is. Follow these lines for targets also and watch them for support and resistance indicators.
Alpha algo targets on chart – follow algo lines for off chart. Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 517 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
I can report that the alpha algo primary probability target prediction from last week for Wednesday December 7 at 10:30 as a direct hit for that time / price cycle. And so did the Friday target at 1:00 PM as a direct hit! As I mentioned at the beginning of this post! Very trade-able calls – excellent!
So what is your most probable algo target for Tuesday at 10:30 EST? Your closest target is always the most probable. Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so.
The problem you have to weigh is that crude is now consolidating after a break-out – so price needs to find it’s alpha algo line and range and then targets become way more predictable. Nonetheless, the targets for this week are represented on the chart above and for the ones above you will need to follow the algo lines. Again, refer to the live charting I send you for this also or be in the trading room.
I WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED ALSO IF THERE ARE NEW ALGO TARGETS ESTABLISHED BECAUSE NEW ALPHA ALGO LINES TEND TO GET ESTABLISHED AFTER A BREAK_OUT. So here again, watch the updates or be sure to be in the trading room.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Also, please be sure to refer to the most recent post for your algo targets (there is an additional target as mentioned on the chart above now of course also).
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:
Well we just got to a point where we were in a trading range and the quadrants were getting locked in and the geo political interference caused the break-out in crude oil price. So we need to wait now for two things; the price of crude to establish a trading range and for at least Tuesday and Wednesday targets to be established. Here again, watch for updates.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you undersatand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.
See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets
