Good morning traders!
In trading room for open, EIA, mid day review, and during active trades. Back later for futures.
Still watching Home Depot for snap back trade or continued sell-off (per yesterday’s premarket watchlist)
Also watching close existing swing trades and swing trade watch list from recent reports.
Watch out for Trump – China as always. And his tweets haha.
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Lowe’s, Best Buy, Weight Watchers, Office Depot & more –
Oil trade going well (alerted / public chat room trading room trades):
Monday: 9 trades 88 ticks up various size all on video and/or alert feed, chat room – time stamped. Some chop in there, wasn’t all easy.
Tuesday: 1 win for the machine, none for me personally.
Wednesday: Today is EIA, big day. API last night large draw.
Team WIP is moving along, updates soon on that. Master Class from Tuesday’s oil session should be out soon here today, it was many hours so the transcription and charting is taking time. All other regular reports on deck. We’re in technical deep end right now with transition to private and significant increase in machine trade coming soon.
Stay in the Know – Important Updates:
Premarket Notes, Current Trades, Watch List and More.
In trading room for open, mid day review, and during active trades. Back later for futures also.
Watching Home Depot sell off at open today. This may really sell off for some time but we will see.
Also watching close existing swing trades and swing trade watch list from report last night.
Oil trading going well, yesterday was choppy but the machine software and I carved out a day of wins.
9 trades 88 ticks up various size all on video and/or alert feed, chat room – time stamped. Some chop in there, wasn’t all easy.
Had one trade on a small account that wasn’t great because of an internet outage at a bad time but other than that it was a good day.
9 trades 88 ticks up various size all on video and/or alert feed, chat room – time stamped. Some chop in there, wasn't all easy.
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) February 25, 2019
Home Depot Trade: Swing Trade and Day Trade.
Home Depot is trading 185.36 pre-market down 2.43% on earnings guidance.
The News Story Link:
Home Depot Misses Q4 Earnings on Interline Charge; Sees Softer 2019 Profit #swingtrading $HD #earnings https://www.thestreet.com/investing/earnings/home-depot-misses-q4-earnings-on-interline-charge-sees-softer-2019-profit-14877506
How to Trade It:
Key Support 174.30 area trading 185’s in premarket so 174’s is quite a ways down, however, I think it is possible.
Key Resistance 191.00 area. Anything under 191 seems short bias to 174 s.
Watch the 182 s on way down (trading box support) and the 200 MA on the 4 hour.
On the day trade side of things, use the horizontal support and resistance levels on the chart for the trade. I will alert as I trade it also.
Trade Set Ups for Swing Trading Tuesday February 26, 2019.
Swing Trading Signals in this Report: $XRT, $SYK, $NVDA, $JNJ, $FNSR, $AAPL, $GOOGL, $XOM, $NKE, GOLD, OIL and more. .
Email us at [email protected] anytime with questions about any of the swing trade set ups covered in this video. Market hours can be difficult to respond but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.
Earnings Season Calendars.
Bloomberg Earnings Season Reporting Calendar List: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/earnings-calendar/us
Investing.com Earnings Calendar: https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar/
Earnings Whispers #earnings for the Week:
#earnings for the week
$SQ $HD $CHK $ETSY $JD $M $MDR $PCG $FIT $AMRN $LOW $JCP $WTW $KOS $PANW $BKNG $ABB $BBY $SPLK $VEEV $AZO $TEX $TRXC $SHAK $NTNX $ECA $JT $WDAY $CRI $DNR $TNDM $AWI $DORM $GWPH $HTZ $TREE $PLAN $NSA $ICPT $FLXN $BNS $CROX $RRC
Earnings Season Special Reports Thus Far:
Jan 28 – Protected: Swing Trading: Earnings Special Report | $AMZN, $MSFT, $FB, $BABA, $TSLA
Jan 24 – Protected: Swing Trading: Earnings Special Report | $AAPL, $AKS, $AMD, $AGN, $EXP
Jan 16 – Protected: Swing Trading Earnings | Feature Report | $MS, $AXP, $C, $SJR, $BAC, $DAL, $NFLX
Jan 14 – Protected: Swing Trading Earnings | Feature Report | $C, $SJR, $BAC, $DAL, NFLX
Swing Trading Set-Up VIDEO:
A Review of Current Swing Trades in First Section Below and Then Other Swing Trade Set Ups I Am Watching for Entries Reviewed Below:
GOLD (GC_F, XAUUSD, GLD) trading 1326.00, entry 1319.78 short 1/20 starter size per previous reporting (starter) looking for a pull-back at resistance levels on chart reviewed on video.
NIKE (NKE) is a break out swing trade play, trading 85.64 I am long 84.84. 99.65 first target then 91.39, 93.31, 101.35 for ultimate target. See chart.
ARROWHEAD (ARWR) swing trade is going well, looking for 27.59 early April 31.34 range after that for a double. Will add at channel support.
GOOGLE (GOOGL) starter position long 1135.00, trading 1117.32, 1158.00 first target then 1214.17 then 1317.72.
EXXON (XOM) Earnings play going well. Looking for a price target 85.61 area. Trim in to each resistance, add above or at pull backs.
SHORT OIL (DWT) Still in small starter, Trump tweet helps me a bit get more onside than I was.
RETAIL ETF (XRT) Trading 45.43. Price over 100 with 20 MA underneath. Looking for 47.48 upside at 200 MA.
STRYKER (SYK) Break out trade set-up, extension over trade break out is what I am watching. Trading 188.31 with price extension to 192.84 then a retrace – likely scenario.
NVIDIA (NVDA) Price target 208.00 ish possible. First price target 100 MA, 2nd traget 186.85, 188.81 is the third price target. 168.25 HOD and looking at a possible long over that. Video explains set-up in more detail.
APPLE (AAPL) 181.66 is price target and 191.60 range is 200 MA as a possible price target above, trading 174.33 intra day, looking at it long – not the best trade set up of the bunch.
JOHNSON JOHNSON (JNJ) Price against a pivot on daily, over 138.00 is interesting for full extension, will re look at it at 138.00. Might be too late on this one. Was going to take trade a number of times and didn’t.
FINISAR (FNSR) Daily chart, another pivot play with full price extension up possible, over 25.37 I’m interested long for a price extension play long.
Email or DM me on Twitter anytime with thoughts or questions!
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Article Topics; Swing, Trading, Stocks, Earnings, $XRT, $SYK, $NVDA, $JNJ, $FNSR, $AAPL, $GOOGL, $XOM, $NKE, GOLD, OIL
We’re trading oil this morning and looking to manage swing trades, may even get a few snap back daytrades today in equity markets.
Trump decided to shake things up this morning:
Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!
Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 25, 2019
Oil trades going well so far in premarket:
5 trades – 73 ticks $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USOIL $UWT $DWT #OOTT #oiltrading
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) February 25, 2019
In trading room and on mic at market open, during active trade, mid day review and scheduled for futures tonight.
No premarket report, all other reporting in progress.
Be sure to review these posts published over the weekend:
RE: Compound Trading Group Closes to the General Public April 30, 2019.
Compound Trading Group will be closing to the general public as of April 30, 2019 and will only be available as a private service going forward.
Existing members will be included in the transition.
Early adopter pricing (current fees you are paying) will remain as long as subscriber fees do not lapse.
Services for existing members will continue to grow as we develop our algorithm software with a goal toward a fully integrated trader digital platform.
This change will allow our development team to focus toward our goals and also allow our on staff traders more focus toward trading the markets day to day.
Most of Compound Trading Group’s clientele are serious full time traders, private commercial trading services and institutional clients.
Any questions with reference to our transition from public to a private trading group please email me direct at [email protected].
RE: Price Increase Details w/ Promo Codes. EPIC Oil Trade Algorithm March 4, 2019. Applies to Bundle, Newsletter, Oil Trade Alerts and Oil Trading Room.
February 24, 2019
Compound Trading Group recently launched a first generation oil trading algorithm (CL) software with great initial success. January oil trade alerts seen a 63% account build increase. We expect results to continue to trend higher as the software is fine-tuned.
More recently, we distributed an advisory to detail software protocol updates that will execute oil trade alerts at a higher frequency with a mandate for 60 – 100 trade alerts per month with an objective of 80% or higher win rate (the current win rate is consistently higher than 90%). The objective is to provide a higher frequency of alerts to achieve a greater return on equity per month with a moderate decrease in win rate as the trade-off.
Also included on the advisory above is detail concerning our proprietary IDENT software update – IDENT is an order flow identifier that helps our software trigger trades with market leaders. The IDENT program update has provided our oil trading and alerts with an extremely high win rate since introduction.
Also recently announced, Compound Trading Group’s EPIC Oil Machine Trading Software has been selected for the SOVORON™ trading platform. SOVORON™ offers a unique trading service providing clients with technology application based Machine Trade of personal investment accounts along with a fund and robo-trade application in their pipeline. To explore their unique client service structure click here http://sovoron.com/ or call 1-849-861-0697.
And finally, Compound Trading Group will be closing to the general public as of April 30, 2019 and will only be available as a private service going forward – you can view the news release here.
Existing members will be included in the transition. Most of Compound Trading Group’s clientele are serious full time traders, private commercial trading services and institutional clients.
Price Increase Detail, Early Adopter Price Guarantee, Limited Promo Codes:
The main pricing menu on our website is found here.
Existing members (early adopter pricing) remains constant and are not affected by the price increases below as long as the member fees do not lapse.
Oil Trading Bundle – Weekly EPIC Algo Newsletter and Charting, Real Time Twitter Feed Alerts, Main Trading Room Access During Active Trade, Private Oil Trading Room / Chat Discord Server (not screen sharing live broadcast like the main trading room).
Current Pricing: 1 Month 399.00, 3 Months 1099.00, 6 Months 2199.00, 1 Year 3999.00.
New Mar 4, 2019 Prices: 1 Month 799.00, 3 Months 1999.00, 6 Months 3799.00, 1 Year 6999.00.
This works out to about 10.00 per alert but also includes the trading rooms and newsletter. If you calculated 60 – 100 trade alerts per month.
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter – Weekly EPIC Algo Newsletter.
Current Pricing: 1 Month 299.00, 3 Months 807.30, 6 Months 1435.20, 1 Year 2511.60.
New Mar 4, 2019 Prices: 1 Month 399.00, 3 Months 999.00, 6 Months 1899.00, 1 Year 2999.00.
Crude Oil Trade Alerts – Distributed by way of private members Twitter feed and now includes access to private Discord oil chat / trade alert feed (with push notifications).
Current Pricing: 1 Month 199, 3 Months 537.3, 6 Months 955.2, 1 Year 1671.60.
New Mar 4, 2019 Prices: 1 Month 499.00, 3 Months 1399.00, 6 Months 2699.00, 1 Year 4999.00.
Promo Codes are in effect for a limited time “bundle30” at check-out. The promo codes remain in effect until Mar 3, 2019 only.
If you have any questions please email me direct at [email protected].
February 22, 2019
RE: EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Machine Trading Software Advisory Specific to Trade Frequency Protocol “Throttle” and IDENT Program Description.
We are now near two months of running the machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts (CL).
During the testing phase, which will continue for some time as we adjust code instructions, the execution of trades by the program is “throttled”. Meaning specifically that the frequency of trade was specifically limited to the highest and then was adjusted to a higher win probability threshold.
The result of the initial testing achieved near 100% win side trade accuracy, but less than optimum trade frequency. Increased frequency may (will in our estimation) return a higher ROI – assuming the win rate percentage achieved is high enough. This of course is a complicated calculation within the code that reflects the win side average per trade return vs. loss side average per trade. In short, the loss side is programmed to be less (limited by way of higher frequency executions – tight stop triggers) and when trade is on win side the trade profit is increased via trade size that is progressively trimmed as the trade is in progress. Refer to private Discord oil trade chat server for real-time discussion between developers and traders for more detail.
An article is available at this link that displays some of (actionable by a human trader executing trades manually) the oil machine trading results, much of which was throttled considerably and much of which had human intervention – in other words, had the software been released to execute totally autonomous the returns would have been considerably higher – but we are testing. The highlighted trades returned a 63% increase on the “large account” test for the one month duration. This achievement was specifically to the alerted trades, not the higher frequency machine trades.
The “alerted trades” meaning that which could be considered actionable alerts to our subscribers. The machine software executed many times more trades but our current alert system platform (Twitter private member feed, Discord private chat server, Oil trading room live broadcast) cannot for the most part distribute alerts fast enough for the higher frequency trades to be considered actionable by a human executing trades manually (a trader digital platform is on the team WIP to remedy this). In consideration also is that the higher frequency trade protocols could easily be reverse engineered to expose the proprietary protocols under our IDENT program – this remains a discussion point internally and how the higher frequency trades will be shared is in question (more on that at a later date).
The “throttle” was initially set to approximately 20 x and over the course of fifty days progressively lowered to function near 10 x with less and less human intervention along the way. 20 x for example would result in twenty times less trade frequency than would otherwise be if the software was not “throttled” at all.
Today (Feb 22 at 2:11 AM EST) the code was adjusted considerably to be “throttled” to be less than 10x and will be lowered progressively over the next 7 trade days. The win rate vs. return as it would be calculated over a month is the achievement bar (goal) in focus. More on this objective and other clarification in near future updates.
Market condition will also result in variance of execution frequency as will holiday weeks specific to the model(s) divergence.
The main takeaway: In to next week the frequency of trade will be considerably higher with an objective being to find the most optimum throttle setting to achieve the highest return. The win rate is expected to near 80% and not near 100% and the return on equity on a monthly basis to increase considerably.
The 63% monthly return (monthly return in this instance meaning account equity size increase as it relates to alerted trades only) is a favorable start, however, our team believes 100% + return per month is consistently attainable (on average over a year) and in a perfect machine executed world 300 – 500% being optimally possible. For now our objectives are to achieve consistent wins at higher than 80% with a frequency of about 60 to 120 trades per month with a return averaging 100% per month (the bar).
The IDENT program is a protocol specifically to order flow identification of market participants achieved by way of historical pattern recognition of between 20 – 40 entities that we consider largest and approximately 200 entities that we consider important enough to attempt to track. The entities are prioritized in what we describe as an “alpha” order. The IDENT program is in large part the topic of this recent article at this link that describes the influence of machine trade in the crude oil trade market as experienced by our lead trader and is in large part the reason for the “intuitive like” nature of our software protocol.
The IDENT program seeks to enter trade direction with prioritized alpha order flow and exit in the same fashion. It is a proprietary process and the instruction set within the code architecture will in large part remain private.
For more information on how our development has progressed, refer to this link that will immerse you in a series of articles written from first hand perspective of the day to day trading of our lead trader with crude oil futures.