A Reliable Method to Determine in Advance Intra-Day Bottom Price, Day High Price, Trading Trend and Timing for Your Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy (Part 1).
The systematic process below that includes actual time stamped oil trade alerts, live video from our oil trading room and charts from our oil trade chat room is easily identifiable when the right signals of trade are in play on any day that you are trading crude oil.
The method below can be learned and reproduced by any trader that studies the trading set-up and strategy explained.
When a trader knows with high probability the likely range of trade for the day then a trading strategy for daytrading can be put in to place.
If you know the likely high of day, low of day, reversal area, trend of trade for the day and the likely timing of the price target areas / reversals this goes a long way to help you with your day trade strategy for executing trades. You can then execute your trades in accordance to those signals until they are no longer relevant or in play.
Hopefully in sharing what happened today in our oil trading room this will help you with your oil daytrading strategy in future.
Part One of this Article will show you how trade transpired today, what we alerted, the charting as it happened, the models we used to determine the high price of day, low price of day, time cycle peak for price targets, the trend on day and more.
Part Two of this Article will explain how you can use this information (the charts, alerts, trading room, chat etc) to develop your own daytrading strategy for crude oil trade.
June 16 Update – Part Two of this Article is Now Complete and can be viewed by clicking here.
Today was the weekly EIA Report at 10:30 AM. There was a substantial build reported. Below is a copy of a tweet from ZeroHedge.
Crude oil +6.77MM, Exp. -0.5MM
Prior to the EIA report coming out I was concerned about it and let the trading room know right before it was announced (the live video is in this article). Even though I expected the oil price to collapse I didn’t trade it down because we were in the last part of our final coding of our machine trade – so I was doing double duty (I wanted to get done).
So the report comes out and oil starts to collapse (you can see all this on the video from the oil trading room for those learning about how oil trades and what to watch for).
At 10:54 AM I alert the oil trading room (with voice broadcast and charting), the oil chat room (see screen capture image below) and alert to the member Twitter feed (screen shot below) that we are looking at the 50.84 area of FX USOIL WTI for possible long trade (trend reversal) for a possible bottom price area on the day. We trade CL futures but alert on USOIL WTI for consistency between instruments of trade for crude oil.
Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.
Then at 11:54 the price of oil drops in to the area previously alerts, spikes down with a flash and trade reverses. In the oil chat room screen shot below you can see I alerted our long oil trade (machine trade in this instance) in the 50.70s and then the machine trade closed and fired a few other times. This ended up in fact being the low of day in trade. I had alerted that I was looking at the 50.84 area and price hit 50.70s and reversed.
Software fired in there 50.70 s to closing 50.90 s, I didn’t but we’ll see if it holds the range for a bounce.
You can also see in the screen shot that I was sharing various chart set-ups to help our traders with their trading strategies for the day so they knew where the structured areas of support, resistance etc were.
Then at 12:07 PM I alerted to the oil trading room by voice broadcast, chat room with charting and on live alert feed that the structure of trade had improved and that we expected that the low of day for trade had in fact been put in confirming a reversal.
improved structure, likely near term low in
Then shortly after 12:00 I alerted (to live trading room, chat room, alert feed) that there was a time cycle peak coming at 2:15 (in other words if you are long on the reversal from the day lows that 2:15 would be the area of time on the day for a high for your price targeting on the trade).
I also gave the resistance levels between where trade was at near the bottom of the trading quad (near the reversal area at bottom) and where we seen the top price target of trade. In other words, if you are long the trade watch for the 20 MA on the 5 minute chart above and the mid quad (mid channel) resistance on the 30 minute EPIC model chart.
2:15 time cycle should be the top on any retrace up on the day
20 MA on 5 min overhead
2:15 PM time cycle most bullish scenario we have is 51.90 (mid channel on EPIC quad) trading 51.32
body of 30 min candle at machine line
Then after the resistance areas are overcome in uptrend trade on the day at 1:20 PM (in advance of the 2:15 time cycle peak) I alert in more detail the various price target areas that represent various model charts on different time-frames so that our traders know exactly what levels to watch as price nears both time and region of trade for our trending price targets for the day trade.
Resistance we are watching intra 51.86 mid channel EPIC, 52.14 5 min, 52.10 on 1 min, 2:15 time cycle peak, just hit 51.81 intra. Nice reversal intra in the EPIC quad from just below support of area we had marked. Also watching for signals for longer term trend reversal possibilities.
Image capture below from oil trade chat room shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted.
Image below from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets. The first image is the 30 minute EPIC algorithm chart model showing a strong bounce off the bottom area of the quadrant (the alerted price reversal area).
Strong signal the trend on wider time frame is in reversal mode with action seen in this quad today really clean
And because the bounce is so strong and structured properly in the quad that traders could start possibly looking at larger time frame charting for a possible trend reversal and possible price targets in that scenario.
maybe one quad more down but that would be it if so imo
60.41 would be trend reversal target, trading 51.91, 850 ticks ish
sorry its 59.22
Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action. Normally we would explain or alert this as it was happening live, however, in today’s scenario I was doing double duty coding so I was sure to show our traders where / how they could confirm that the intra-day trend (for in future trading strategy) was still in play.
After two hits to the trend then the HFT programs set their confirmation pivot and continue trend. This confirms that a trade can continue looking in to the trend for the day, the price targets for day high and time cycle peak for the day.
this is where the HFTs hammered down today, after two hits to 1 min channel support and hit to 1 min range they hammered down
Two chart images below of crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in 30 Minute EPIC model. This week the trade is much more structured confirming signals that I will include in Part 2 of this report.
Last weeks quad action
This week quad action
The final two images below show that price did in fact spike in to the time cycle peak for 2:15 PM and did reverse in this area of oil trade for a short opportunity as we had alerted much earlier in the day.
peaking in to time cycle intra
Next, in Part Two of this article (sent to premium members) I will explain exactly how you can use this information (the charts, alerts, trading room, chat etc) to develop your own day trading strategy for crude oil trade.
I will explain trade signals such as how to know where the time cycles are, what the expected high of day and low of day is most probable and what the trend on the day should be.
Below is the raw oil trading room video feed, if you are learning to trade oil you can correlate the time stamp you see on the images above to the time stamp on the video so you can scroll through the video to specifically what I was saying in the trading room during each alert period. The video below is only a raw feed and I am not broadcasting on mic all day – only when there are alerts and or trades in play (this is why I mention the time stamps). I only include the video because newer students of trade can utilize the live video (and associated comments and charting) to learn, but it is not packaged in short form so you have to dig a bit.
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Reversals, Trend, Price Targets, Time Cycle