My Stock Trading Plan for Friday Jan 6, 2017 in Trading Chat room. $OGXI $VGZ $GPS $MDCO $GLD $GDX $NUGT $JNUG $USLV $SLV $UWT, $DWT, $USOIL, $WTI, $GOLD, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $SILVER, $SI_F, $VIX, $UVXY $TVIX $NG_F… more.
Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session!
Notices:
Charting: TradingView charting is intermittently down (depends on the security) – seems to happen every few months. Likely ICE exchange data issue again – so charts are intermittent in this report and in trading room until it is resolved on their end.
2017 Algorithmic Model Charting is complete – we’re just waiting for TradingView ICE Data to come back online to publish and send to your inboxes!
Per previous;
Feature Post: “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most“. If you are using our algorithmic model charting it is a must read.
Review: If you are not reviewing the post market trading results along with this please do so. We assume our trading room subscribers review it everyday. There is often information applicable to and not included in this premarket report. You will find the post market trading result reports on our blog daily.
New Service Options: We now also offer a stand-alone trading room option now vs. bundle incl. trading room, premarket newsletter, alerts). Plans from $1.22 per day w/ promo code.
New Service Options: EPIC the Oil Algo now has an Oil Report only option vs. bundle w/ 24 hr trading room. Plans from $4.10 per day w/promo code.
New Service Options: Entry-Level trader one-on-one trade coaching and entry-level trade academy options now available in addition to intermediate / advanced trading academy and coaching.
Current Holds:
Per previous;
$CBMX, $JUNO, $DUST (looking for a way out on $DUST – was expecting one final significant spike in USDJPY before drop). $CBMX and $JUNO are holds till spring if necessary (you would have to do your own DD on the companies and make your own determination).
General Market Outlook:
Lots of width in what we are trading between now and Jan 20, 2017 IMO. Should be really active. My focus will be toward morning momentum plays and scalping range in $UGAZ $DGAZ $NUGT $DUST $USLV $DSLV $UWT $DWT $JNUG $JDST
Per previous;
Early in 2017 I will be watching very closely bonds, $USDJPY, markets in general for direction (of course there are hundreds of variables).
Generally speaking I am looking for some volatility between now and late January. My instinct tells me that even if there is some downdraft in the markets that the Trump train will sweep them up in positive momentum at some point.
Metals, energy and financials are three areas I am looking to for 2017 for trading margin – with bio in fourth place on my list. And per previous we’re expecting some action in bonds to the upside a high probability.
As a trader, it is the margin / volatility I am focused toward and getting on the right side of a market / sector turn and scaling in to that.
Per previous;
All algos (Oil, SPY, Gold, Silver, Dollar, VIX) have hit their targets now (long term since July and short term) so we are running calculation targets for all six algos for all time charting time-frames and expect these reports to start rolling out first week of January 2017.
Morning Momo / News Bits:
Momo Stocks: $OGXI $VGZ $GPS $MDCO
Gap shares surge 8.6% in premarket trade
Amgen shares ? up 4% premarket
Regeneron shares ? down 8.1% in premarket trade
Ionis and subsidiary Akcea collaborate with Novartis to develop two cardiovascular candidat… http://seekingalpha.com/news/3233823-ionis-subsidiary-akcea-collaborate-novartis-develop-two-cardiovascular-candidates-deal-valued?source=feed_f … #premarket $IONS $NVS
UBS reduces expectations on McDonald’s http://seekingalpha.com/news/3233827-ubs-reduces-expectations-mcdonalds?source=twitter_sa_factset … #premarket $MCD
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts and at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect their math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80% in my trading – all publicly posted live trades).
The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here:$WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index). . Our lead trader Twitter feed is here @curtmelonopoly, lead developer @hundalSHS, and newest trader @quadzilla_jr.
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid risk – so often I avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks later in the day after the wash-out looking for a snap-back. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: Gainers: $OGXI 62%, $VGZ 11%, $GPS 8%, $MDCO 8% $DGAZ $NBIX $URRE $IONS $CTIC $AMGN $FCAU $JDST $DUST $UWT $OREX $UCO $SDRL
I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.
(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: Losers: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.
(3) Other Watch-List:
(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)
(5) Upgrades: As time allows I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.
(6) Downgrades: As time allows I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
Regular Trades:
S & P 500: $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)
Outlook:
I wouldn’t bet against it. This weekend, along with other algos all our 2017 charting is out so all levels up and down moves will be in those reports.
$SPY Jan 6 614 AM
Per previous;
Watching, watching, watching. $SPY is still having difficulty with the resistance our algo alerted weeks back prior to Fed speak.
The S&P did exactly what we thought it would last year.
We thought Trump would win and that would cause a rally and that did occur. We also expected some rest before EOY and our algorithm called that to the day and almost penny.
Here forward is more difficult to predict – we are going to assess price action as the year turns over and the Trump era unfolds.
I wouldn’t rule out a sell off and I wouldn’t rule out a rally. I think they are both likely in 2017. We just want to catch the inflection right.
My Trading Plan for $SPY:
Per previous;
Right now I am trading $XIV instead of $SPXL or $SPXS. I do this because we are in a trend of crushed volatility. Now, when that changes and volatility starts to rise again (even if $SPY is rising at the same time) then I’ll flip over to trading $SPXL and $SPXS instead of $XIV.
Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)
Outlook:
Per previous;
As noted above, we expect volatility.
CNN Fear and Greed Index: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events. SHORT $VIX SPIKES!
Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)
Outlook:
$USDJPY I know, it's different this time. #yencarry pic.twitter.com/8RZzRUbPbz
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) January 5, 2017
$USDJPY Jan 6 604AM
Per previous;
We are watching $USD/JPY close of course. We are also watching the Mexico Peso and the Russian markets – both could see significant lift early 2017.
Watching $USDJPY now close for a top. Symmetry is in play on the chart, there is some divergence (although not broke) and metals are starting to front-run.
Per previous:
BE VERY CAREFUL LISTENING TO THE $USD/JPY bears – they have been feeding misery to followers for many weeks – the chart is not broke – price is currently at support and there could easily be another leg up – nobody knows but the trend is your friend!
My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets:
Per previous;
Waiting, waiting, waiting. $USDJPY CHART IS NOT BROKEN! IT IS A BULL UNTIL IT IS NOT…
Gold: $XAUUSD $GC_F $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)
Outlook:
1184.33 holds some resistance and more overhead. Gold, $XAUUSD, $GC_F, $GLD, $UGLD, $DGLD. $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG
1184.33 holds some resistance and more overhead. Gold, $XAUUSD, $GC_F, $GLD, $UGLD, $DGLD. $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG
Per previous;
There is a public post from Rosie the Gold algo overnight (click to view) and a Rosie the Gold Algo member’s version in member inboxes / on Twitter feed. It details exactly what levels I am watching and why.
There’s Gold in them thar hills boy! Rosie algo report ondeck! $GC_F $GLD $XAUUSD $GDX $GDXJ $NUGT $DUST $JNUG $JDST
Per previous;
As you may know, we called the bottom (if it is) almost to the penny (months in advance) and recently Gold and miners did get lift (which we expected / called). Between now and Jan 20 anything is possible.
It would be most logical that miners would rally and Gold may also.
But you need to remember that Trump has surprised everyone since he started campaigning and a significant Trump rally in the markets cannot be ruled out. If that happens, Gold will obviously most likely see new lows to between 800 – 1000.
So be ready, and lets catch the inflection. I was expecting on last run in USDJPY so be cautious.
Per recent posts:
So we have started to see some action in Gold and Miners so it these are on high watch with me right now.
I am waiting for the trend reversal. We are very close to the price target at the bottom of that quadrant at 1133.00 ish. The initial wide frame target Rosie the algo nailed but there has been a wait and see for a reversal because of one more possible leg down. Getting very close IMO.
I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.
WE SHOULD BE ALMOST THERE! GET READY! LIKELY BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND TRUMP POWER TRANSFER! CHARTS COMING!
Other equities I like for Gold, Miners, Silver Trade: $IAG, $AUY, $AUMN, $ASM, $GRL, $VGZ, $NAK – building more complete list now.
Silver $SI_F $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV, $SILJ $SLX $EPU $EWZ)
Outlook:
Some levels to watch up and down. It’s unorthodox charting – but trust me. Down look to 14.498 and up look to 18.909. Also that 200 day (pink) watch it.
Silver $SI_F $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV, $SILJ $SLX $EPU $EWZ) Jan 6 717 AM
Per previous;
Same with Gold and miners – on high watch.
Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.
My Plan for Trading Silver:
Per previous;
Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.
Other equities I like for Gold, Miners, Silver Trade: $IAG, $AUY, $AUMN, $ASM, $GRL, $VGZ, $NAK – building more complete list now.
Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)
Outlook:
At time of writing oil is about to test significant resistance. 547 AM.
Crude algo intra work sheet 543 AM Jan 6 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
My Trading Plan for Oil Related Equities:
Per Previous;
When price gets back to a support or outside channel I’ll take a trade.
Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT
Natural Gas $NG_F $NATGASUSD ($UGAZ, $DGAZ):
Outlook:
It’s bullish – but it has to hold important levels like 200 MA on chart below.
Watching 200 MA on 1 Day (pink) Natural Gas $NG_F $NATGASUSD ($UGAZ, $DGAZ)
Chart Per Previous;
$NATGASUSD KISS Chart of the day. Natural Gas.
My Trading Plan for Natural Gas:
Per Previous;
Watching for confirmation (same as above – new year and Trump phenom make it difficult to future cast).
Study:
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
http://finviz.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6
http://www.highshortinterest.com/
http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php
http://www.3xetf.com/all/
http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs
GL!
Curtis
Article Topics: $OGXI, $VGZ, $GPS, $MDCO, $UGAZ, $DGAZ, $NUGT, $DUST, $USLV, $DSLV, $UWT, $DWT, $JNUG, $JDST, Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GLD, $GDX, $NUGT, $JNUG, $USLV, $DUST, $UWT, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL, $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGASUSD, $NG_F, $DWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY, $XAUUSD, $GC_F
