18
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Friday Nov 18 ($GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $IWM, $RWM, $FAZ, $USOIL, $GDX… more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Friday November 18, 2016 in Chatroom.

Welcome to the Friday Wall Street trading session!

Algo work – As of this Monday our new equipment will be up and running full steam so I’ve scheduled next week in the room (when market is quiet) for algo work – we’re running the algo updates now for $SPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $DXY, $GOLD, $SILVER – lots of updates coming for next week!

Market Outlook

The world markets in my opinion are at an inflection point. Sure the S&P 500 may go to all time highs and the US Dollar may really rocket and the various indices and international markets such as Japan will all fly high and even the metals will get curb-stomped. All of that I’ve been tweeting for months anyway in advance – so no surprise. The question is how to navigate it, trade the pull-backs and then really PROFIT on the other side of the inflection.

$GOLD and $SILVER are almost at our algorithm’s price targets – so I will be watching these closely. Japan’s stock market is in break-out mode with currency etc. S&P 500 $SPY is in mode to break new all time highs (I called prior to election), $VIX looks like it will be much lower (per our calls), $DXY US Dollar is in break-out mode (our algorithm nailed that with calls that extend back months ago) and $USOIL $WTI is sitting a new up range but not in break out (I am sure it is waiting for meetings to conclude).

I will say that our algorithm calls for Crude Oil, the US Dollar, S&P 500, Gold and Silver all took significant heat at the time they were made over the last few months. Interesting times – but our algorithms were right in every scenario – so that’s very positive, as such we’re releasing the initial charting of the algorithms over the next week.

On the small cap equity side…. shippers have run their course it seems and China low float issues got jiggy yesterday as I expected they would. This play book isn’t new. Low float oil could be next.

On the ETF / ETN side $UWTI $DWTI will be de-listed soon… so I will be looking to other instruments to trade crude oil. More to come on that soon.

So my plan in general is to watch for pull-backs and turns as the inflection points hit outside ranges. More detail below.

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day)

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists

Pre-market Decliners Watch-List:  $HIBB, $KTOS, $GOLD, $FSLR, $AMAT, $PAAS, $SSRI, $RYAAY, $MU, $UGLD – I Will Update Before Market Open or Refer to Chat Room

Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $SYUT 23%, $SMRT 16%, $DCIX 14%, $URRE 12%, $MRVL 11%, $DRYS $PIP $SHIP $FCEL $ESEA $SINO $GLBS $CRM $CBMX $UGAZ – I Will Update Before Market Open or Refer to Chat Room

Other Watch-List(s): Indices: $IWM $RWM $TZA S&P 500 $SPY ATH, International: Japan Stocks $DBJP, Currencies: $DXY $UUP Break-out $USD/$JPY $FXY, Financials: $FAZ Inflection Point?

Other Watch-List(s): 

Regular Watch-List: Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS)

My bias is still to all time highs, I will be looking for long positions on pull-backs. I see a run in Gold, miners and Silver soon then a pull back and then a big run.

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

I expect volatility at market inflection points and then continue to get crushed and I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

Currencies Etc: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

The US Dollar continues its rally so I’m looking at $UUP on pull-backs. Also looking at how the $USD/JPY relates to possible long in Japan with $DBJP.

I am also watching the Peso and Trump’s messaging… also watching $FXY and $USD/$JPY for clues with Gold and Miner’s.

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

For me Gold and Silver is going to be the big story soon. It should start to get some lift if only for a short time and that process may go on for a while – so I will snipe as that occurs. I have started to chew around the edges with tight trades but nothing yet. The idea is to get on the winning side of the reverse when it occurs. Watching $USD/$JPY close and $DXY and $FXY for clues on Gold and miners movements.

$GOLD

$GOLD 530 AM EST Nov 18, 2016

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Silver: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

As with Gold I’m awaiting buy trigger on Silver – here again I will chew around the edges sniping until the reverse trend occurs.

$SILVER

$SILVER 548 AM November 18, 2016

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI $GUSH $ERX, $DWTI, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F)

First things first, $UWTI $DWTI are being de-listed (on Dec 9 I think?), anyway, that will cause me to choose a new instrument. I liked the idea of the 3x leveraged – I have a sneaking suspicion someone else will fill the void in short order anyway – but in meantime I’ll find other instruments. I really think the big story soon is going to be Gold and Silver anyway – so my bias is turning in that direction for daytrades anyway – but I’ll always trade oil.

In the short term we do have to be ready for rumors or even real news out of the oil meetings so I’m ready for that.

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Natural Gas: ($UGAZ, $DGAZ)

Natural gas… I’m not comfortable with at this time… I want a trade with at least 4 to 1 probability.. at least thats the plan – and with natural gas it seems hard to get better than 50 50 – but we’ll see.

Other Sectors, Indices, International Etc:

Watching $RWM Russell 2000 Short

Watching $SPY Long to All Time Highs

Watching Japan Stocks $DPJP

Watching Aluminum Long $FOIL

Study:

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

 

 

 

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom

18
Nov 2016

Post Market Thur Nov 17 Low Float Shippers China, $USOIL, #OIL, $UWTI and more.

Post Market Report (Trade Results) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades / Alerts for Thursday Nov 17, 2016. Low Float Shippers China, $SCON $BNSO, $DHRM, $ISNS, $UWTI, OIL, and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive (we start sharing videos soon – just one more thing on the to-do list).

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

Overview Perspective of Chart Room, Trades and Alerts:

Today for me was a scalping day… worked moderately well. With a goal of 1% minimum per day (preferably 3%) I’m easily on track since the beta start of our trading room a couple weeks back (1% per day 10k to 1.14MM in 26 mos compounded).

Primary lessons I learned that may help your trades…

Today wasn’t exciting… it was a process of me chewing around the edges of crude trades with $UWTI (which by the way is being delisted soon – see premarket report coming up). I was likely up 1% or better – haven’t had the time to see yet.

The reason I chew around the edges is that I am looking for a break-out entry scalping with my small account looking to build it at 1% a day compound and if a break-out occurs then I start hammering down with my larger swing account on every pull-back. Pretty simple strategy that works well. With oil, the break-out I’m looking for is due to not only the current OPEC meetings but also in the charting.

But soon, very soon we’re looking at Gold and Silver because the are getting really close to our algorithm’s projected lows. So I will start chewing around the edges of $GOLD $SILVER and miners $GDX. Right now $DXY is in break-out mode so I may trade $UUP on pull-backs for a bit (however we see it trailing off soon) – it’s an inflection point in markets – so it is about being cautious during inflection prior to next trends. Japan is also in break-out so I may start chewing around edges of $DBJP also and of course the S & P 500 $XIV same thing. $VIX is getting stomped as expected but inflection will come there too.

What I did miss was the shippers (was all over them before they started but elected not to play) and China low float stocks have started (was also all over that ahead of curve and I’m thinking on it) and semi conductors I didn’t play.

Stock Chatroom Trading Transcript

08:54 am Curtis M : Premarket Top % Gainers: $SINO 76%, $RLOG 70%, $GSL 36%, $DCIX 27%, $ESEA 27%, $TOPS, $NM $GLBS $IMNP $NMM $SB $SHIP $NTAP $PLUG $BBY $EGLE
08:55 am Curtis M : Upgrades $MSFT $NOA $RRC $TCK $KBR $FSLR $QVCA $T $MUSA $NTAP
09:05 am Curtis M : No morning newsletter… same as yesterday with premarket gainers and upgrades listed here.
09:20 am Curtis M : $RLOG 113%, $GSL 105%, $SINO 99%, $PSID 36%, $DCIX 29%, $NMM 28%, $NWBO $TOPS $WNR $NM $SB $ANW $GLBS $NTAP $HAIN
09:23 am Curtis M : “Risk control is the most important thing in trading.”
09:24 am GSCT . : /CL surge here
09:26 am Curtis M : Morning … back in a minute for open
09:32 am GSCT . : DRYS offering
09:49 am mathew w : Getting out of my ON UWTI position
09:49 am mathew w : Huge moves all over the board
09:52 am Curtis M : Looking for $UWTI long as oil settles through morning, oil companies starting to squeeze so Im running scans, expected entry long $UWTI at arrow gives me 46.20 – 47.28 width on crude for 3-6% in $UWTI potential
09:53 am GSCT . : Thanks for the detailed strategy
09:58 am Curtis M : RUnning screeners on oil companies and waiting for $UWTI entry on oil price target
10:00 am mathew w : WLL and NE working nicely here
10:00 am Curtis M : For those wondering why I will stalk an oil trade for hours …. https://compoundtrading.com/100000-turns-1-million-24-mths-1-per-day-compound-stock-trading/
10:00 am mathew w : Looking and JONE and EPE
10:04 am mathew w : LE? No NE. Noble energy
10:04 am mathew w : I’m in these calls from friday
10:04 am mathew w : haha close. Cows. Oil. whatever
10:13 am GSCT . : U or DWTI?
10:27 am Curtis M : http://finance.yahoo.com/news/janet-yellen-testifies-on-capitol-hill-150717531.html
10:53 am Curtis M : https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/799278889566662656 finally got some sun after 4 days of rain
10:57 am Curtis M : Long $UWTI 19.60 800 shares small account – may have to sit through some pain… a little early but ya
11:13 am Curtis M : Out for now at 19.70 looking to renter $UWTI
11:22 am Curtis M : Lomg $UWTI 19.535 small account 1000 shares
11:24 am Curtis M : Out $UWTI flat
11:25 am Curtis M : chewing around edges trying to get lift
11:49 am Curtis M : Long $UWTI small account 1000 share 19.536
11:59 am Curtis M : OUt $UWTI 19.74
12:00 pm Curtis M : ugh
12:02 pm Mathew Waterfall : Nice Kill Curtis. Well done
12:03 pm Curtis M : thanks
12:06 pm Curtis M : So going to get ready for EOD oil squeezes catcha in a few
12:06 pm Mathew Waterfall : AMD and MU going crazy today if you’re looking for other momo plays
12:06 pm Curtis M : thanks
12:07 pm Mathew Waterfall : Repeated calls being bought in size in both this AM
12:07 pm Mathew Waterfall : Might be a little tired but still seeing flows coming across
12:09 pm Curtis M : ok thanks
12:10 pm Curtis M : going to be out of hotel for 20 mins
12:10 pm Curtis M : if it says im out of room or whatver no prob cya in 20
12:11 pm Curtis M : specifically im mainly looking at oil squueze small caps but will look at anything EOD
12:56 pm Mathew Waterfall : invernse h&s on /cl 1′ chart
01:20 pm Curtis M : $DHRM china loa float
01:21 pm Curtis M : Yup theyre gonna run the Chinas now for a while lol
01:27 pm Curtis M : $SCON $BNSO, $DHRM then likely $ISNS
01:32 pm Mathew Waterfall : In and out of /cl and UWTI for small wins. That price action is agrivating.
01:40 pm Mathew Waterfall : Back in FH for a swing trade. Hit this for a win about a month ago. Back on the radar today so hoping to get back into the 3s shortly
01:42 pm Curtis M : crude has snipers in there till bots get it and go
01:45 pm Curtis M : Watching $BNSO $NFEC $ DHRM $ISNS and other China low float mania
01:51 pm Curtis M : Long $UWTI 19.26 1000 shares small acct
01:51 pm Mathew Waterfall : Im short FYI
01:51 pm Mathew Waterfall : once it broke .21 I went short
01:52 pm Mathew Waterfall : I was wrong on that one lol. Quick out
01:57 pm Curtis M : $UWTI small win beers and hotdogs
01:57 pm Curtis M : $CCCL
01:57 pm Mathew Waterfall : I’m back short. This is going lower with the $DXY strength
01:58 pm GSCT . : When you talk about a ticker can you please say its name as I can’t always have your screen up and also can you make the ticker symbol more readable on your chart as it’s very hard to discern.
02:00 pm GSCT . : I mean the symbol name in light grey. Please make it more white.
02:01 pm Mathew Waterfall : The dollar moves make me very nervous right here RE oil
02:05 pm Mathew Waterfall : Im playing against last weeks high here
02:05 pm Mathew Waterfall : might go long /cl
02:08 pm Mathew Waterfall : long and wrong new LOD
02:13 pm Curtis M : Long $UWTI 1000 shares small account 19.05
02:19 pm Curtis M : $UWTI 18.88 loss 1000 shares
02:22 pm Mathew Waterfall : Damn that price action is all over the place
02:22 pm Mathew Waterfall : I was trying to get out of my /cl contracts and it was jumping so bad I lost $$$ trying to chase it down
02:24 pm Curtis M : Long $UWTI 18.93 1000 shares small acct
02:25 pm Curtis M : out flat $UWTI no mojo
02:27 pm Curtis M : Long $UWTI 19.06 1000 shares small act
02:29 pm Mathew Waterfall : Dude tough day for sure. I have 8 round trips in UWTI in one account and have probably half as many round trips for /cl contracts
02:29 pm Mathew Waterfall : Broker making as much as I am today
02:30 pm Curtis M : Out $UWTI 19.07 flat
02:30 pm Curtis M : 3 w 1 L 1 F choppy cant get a trend easily
02:35 pm Mathew Waterfall : Might hit silver shortly for a swing. USLV looks appealing
02:52 pm Curtis M : looks like a lot of gold and silver trading coming up soon here
02:54 pm Curtis M : $DXY should back off… $GOLD and $SILVER gonna run… until then low float mania? And remember what happened last year same time…
03:02 pm Mathew Waterfall : I’m still in TKAI for a low float pick lol. Things kind of a turd but I bought low enough it doesnt matter
03:15 pm Curtis M : Gonna call it a night guys. Were going to try and get all algo charts for all 6 up by Monday. Looks like Gold and Silver are near so lotsa work to do.
03:15 pm Curtis M : Room will stay open till 4 see ya n morning
03:18 pm GSCT . : Thanks CM

Topics: Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Chat Room, Trading Results, Low Float Stocks, Shippers, China, $UWTI, OIL, $SCON $BNSO, $DHRM, $ISNS, $GOLD, $SILVER, $DXY

14
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Tuesday Nov 15 ($USOIL $WTI, $DXY, $VIX, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver, $SPY… more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Updated 8:17 AM EST

My Stock Trading Plan for Tuesday November 15, 2016 in Chatroom.

Welcome to the Tuesday Wall Street trading session! The futures bulls are alive and well and oil traded positive!

Specific to starting with more advanced traditional charting and algorithmic charting… the current market conditions are not the best time to do that… but I’ve started with EPIC the Oil Algo posts to get us started and we’ll introduce more and more of our algo work over the coming days and weeks between now and end of November.

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day)

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists

8:03 EST

S&P +0.12%.

10-yr +0.2%.

Euro +0.27% vs. dollar.

Crude +2.86% to $44.56.

Gold +0.25% to $1,224.75.

Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: $TSRO, $CTRE Will Update Before Market Open or Refer to Chat Room

Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $ESEA 74%, $SHIP 31%, $RPRX 15%, $AAP 14%, $TOPS $SINO $JD $PTN $UWTI $PWE $AAL $UCO $WLL $DAL $CHK $DNR $FCAU  Will Update Before Market Open or Refer to Chat Room

Other Watch-List(s): Airlines. Shippers: $DRYS $EGLE $SHIP $SINO $TOPS $GNRT Oil: $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY Financials: $FAZ

Regular Watch-List: Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS)

My bias is still to all time highs – although it has struggled some. The recent lift in oil may help. But I also expect considerable volatility during it’s run to ATH and/or shortly thereafter. The US Dollar is going to cause issues IMO as will other global market / credit / bond issues over the horizon. In that, I see a run in Gold and Silver soon.

My trading plan with $SPY: I expect volatility to get crushed and I will likely follow that trend with $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

$SPY

$SPY 107 AM Nov 15

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

The US Dollar continues its rally at time of writing. I expect it to continue in its symmetry relative to last year before Christmas also. Anyway, my Twitter feed had me posting this run since late July and there is no reason now to think it’s over. When it is, it is.

I’m watching the Peso and Trump’s messaging… also watching $FXY for clues with Gold and Miner’s.

My trading plan with $DXY: I may take a long on $UUP if I can lock in a range that makes sense but other than that I’m sitting tight. WHEN IT DOES reach it’s full symmetrical extension I will look at plays for the downside.

$DXY US Dollar Index

$DXY US Dollar Index. 109 AM EST Nov 15, 2016

Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

So yesterday I posted – and this is still my position.

“$VIX 315 AM EST Nov 14, 2016 – Likely to get crushed well below diagonal trend-line and right down to previous lows.”

$VIX

$VIX Diagonal Trendline 112 AM Nov 15, 2016

My trading plan with $VIX (volatility) is to run with $XIV at edges of range (if I can catch them) using $VIX and $SPY trading action.

Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

So I have been really patient here and I hope the train doesn’t leave with-out me. Tonight I’m working on oil small cap charting…. but it’s time to start on Gold, Miner and Silver small cap company charting now soon too IMO to get ready.

My trading plan with Gold: Wait for the buy trigger to hit. If it doesn’t reassess range then.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

As with Gold I’m awaiting buy trigger on Silver… I did try and take a $USLV trade on Monday as a tester but stopped out so I’ll continue to watch.

My trading plan with Silver: Wait for the buy trigger to hit. If it doesn’t reassess range then.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

8:10 AM Update: EPIC the OIL Algo Blog Post Published.

If you are trading oil in the room be sure to always check EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter Feed for updates and recent reports etc.

Crude took off today in an uptrend and is about to test the 200 MA on the 1 HR. We’ll see how it handles that. Now that it is in an uptrend, and if it continues, within a few days EPIC the Oil Algo will have new alpha algo targets and alpha algo trend-lines for us.

In summary your trading ranges are as follows (as of 124 AM Nov 15, 2016):

Diagonal intra trend lines:  Resistance – 45.62. Supports – 43.16 / 42.77. (change intra with diagonal blue lines).

Horizontal trend lines: Resistance – Many. Support – Many. Refer to chart. (purple lines).

Moving average: Resistance at 200 MA on the 1 HR. Intra is at 44.54 (this will change intra)

Alpha algo lines: Refer to chart (red dotted diagonal).

Alpha algo targets for week: At time of writing EPIC has not released any updates.

Traditional chart pivots: Next segment of publishing from EPIC coming soon.

Traditional Fibonacci: Next segment of publishing from EPIC coming soon.

$USOIL, $WTI, OIL

Overhead Resistance Test Coming 200 Day on 1 Hour Chart (pink line). Crude algo intra work sheet 126 AM ET Nov 15, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Trader notes on oil.

My plan trading oil is to take a long position in $UWTI in my small account if the support holds and there is corresponding price action / volume. I will sell in to strength and re-enter as needed and I will sell VERY FAST if support is breached. If oil gets proper lift then I will consider entering in size long with my large swing account,

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Study:

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

GL!

Curtis

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom

10
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 10 ($USOIL $WTI Oil, $DXY Dollar, $VIX, $GLD Gold, $NATGAS … more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday November 10, 2016.

Election is Over!

Sorry, no premarket yesterday – but we did bank in the room and the alerts have been dead on.

Futures were strong as were/are world markets.

A few big things today… obvious lift in $SPY (and we’re banking on $XIV), my $THC swing I may exit soon, $HTZ should of held (it was a decent call), BASE METALS as I’ve posted on my feed will be strong mid term with infrastructure spending (Trump) and coal will be strong mid term likely.Copper is flying and shippers may take off here. Oh, and Natural Gas looks like it’s getting close to a buy zone. And as alerted tech and bio. Also, I missed the $NIKKEI snapback trade (which I wanted to catch just forgot – and yup it snapped back)

Many sectors are getting lift as we expected so it is important to stay in the zone – focus – nimble. Oil should be the story soon being it is bouncing under ceiling resistance on 200 on the 1 hr and bouncing up off 50 on the 1 hr.

 

Momentum Stocks (Market open and Intra)

I do trade them at times, but I avoid risk FYI. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Pre Market Watchlist: $TRP, $THC, $TPL, $WFT, $JJC #Copper, $AUMN, and more in chat b4 open.

If #Silver gets up over resistance and #Gold gets flight $AUMN can double fast.

$THX is up 6% or so in pre-market – so this swing is doing ok so far – I may exit this morning though.

$WFT I am watching for follow-thru.

Regular Watchlist: $GLD, $GDX, $SLV, FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), $SPY, $DXY, $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV), more to come in trading room before market open.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX)

Well I nailed that call… what can I say. We’re going to new highs. Next eight calendar days are critical. Stay awake.

Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

From Tuesday….

Some obvious plays here… if Hillary gets last minute bad news I’l scalp $TVIX or $UVXY. If election goes well for her the obviously $XIV would be a decent scalp or swing. If THE Donald wins… watch out lol… volatilty. But either way I think the market gets a lift (if Donald wins market likely does a mini Brexit then lifts). I win every-time here (seriously almost). Brexit, last Jan, last Sept and Oil have been huge bonuses to my accts in addition to compound trading program – so I see the election as a bonus.

So the $VIX is right at that diagonal trendline support – but you have to be careful putting too much consideration in to diagonal supports to beging with – but even moreso with the $VIX (it isn’t like a diagonal trendline with most equities).
$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

I missed the move in the Peso… had it lined up but you can’t get every play… WE SHOULD WATCH IT THOUGH for a bit of a snapback next week perhaps.

The US Dollar index is the only one I’m really watching – if it gets flight there’s a good play in $TZA. But other than that I’m not interested in playing China or Britain or any other currency related trades.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

The actual charting with the $DXY US Dollar isn’t broken at all… if you chekc my Twitter feed long before it got lift here I was telling folks what the algorithmic symmetry was saying… but many didn’t listen. This was an easy set-up IMO.

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI $XOP #OOTT #Algo)

Get your charting up and watch this close for a break-out. They have meetings coming up too.

Watch your 200 day on the 1 hour for resistance and 50 day on the 1 hour for support (and more recently this morning off the 100 for support) – either breach and that’s a tell. If I miss it in the room send me a DM on twitter or an email to [email protected]. Also watch the blue diagonal trendlines on the chart for resistance and support. And the purple horizontal supports and resistance. If crude gets above the 200 Day on the 1 hour and above the blue trendline above it and the purple resistance in that same area then it’s in break-out mode. DONT MISS IT AND DONT LET ME MISS IT LOL.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Obviously all base metals will be bullish, however, $GOLD is running in to some chart resistance that is wise to consider.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

Pay attention to that 17.92 resistance – if #Silver can get up and over that on back-test it could fly. This would be my preferred play in the metals category. Also watch $AUMN if #SILVER gets up over 17.92. LETS NOT MISS THAT ONE EITHER.

Copper $JJC

Copper should cool soon here IMO and get some downdraft and then run again IMO.
Natural Gas – $NATGASUSD, $UGAZ, $DGAZ

Per previous…

I continue to watch per previous. I was expecting a floor down here (as with Gold and Silver not so much) and the downdraft this morning is significant (enough? not sure yet – ask me after election lol).

#NaturalGas IMO is almost at a floor, watch close!!! LETS CATCH THE TRAIN HERE TOO!

Good luck! And remember, we get in to nice predictable algorithmic trading / traditional charting trading with compound predictability starts Monday (we will just need to let trading settle in to its “natural mathematical state” for each intrument).

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

GL GL!

Curtis

 

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre Market, Trading Plan, Wallstreet, Stocks, Daytrading

08
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 8, 2016 ($USOIL $WTI Oil, $DXY US Dollar, $VIX, $GLD Gold … more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Tuesday November 8, 2016.

Election Day!

Two big things today… it is election day… but more importantly (for my trading at least)… EPIC the Oil Algo has locked in his math on time / price cycles and that means BIG TRADING coming there very soon (it’s exciting for me anyway – it means bank on top of bank cometh).

Premarket reports will not be detailed until after election.

As with recent… I’m sitting tight and trading scalps until after election – yesterday portfolio +3.5% increase and Friday +6.3% so that’s just fine for now.

Post election we will start on algorithmic trading main targets and trendlines and work with traditional indicators that I use for my trades with goal to compound accounts 10k to 1MM in 26 mos (however, as in last nights post market report, I may kick that up a notch to a 6 month curve – stay tuned).

So for now so detailed pre-market trade plan – after election however very detailed trading plans for each algorithm we have in development. Also, refer to pre and post market reports for last week or so if you wish to view my bias with any specific sector etc.

Momentum Stocks (Market open and Intra)

I explained my position on morning momo stocks in detail in yesterday’s premarket if you’re interested (bottom line they carry risk so I do trade them at times, but I avoid risk).

Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Pre Market Watchlist: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV) FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), more to come in trading room before market open.  

Markets Today – Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

Some obvious plays here… if Hillary gets last minute bad news I’l scalp $TVIX or $UVXY. If election goes well for her the obviously $XIV would be a decent scalp or swing. If THE Donald wins… watch out lol… volatitility. But either way I think the market gets a lift (if Donald wins market likely does a mini Brexit then lifts). I win everytime here (seriously almost). Brexit, last Jan, last Sept and Oil have been huge bonuses to my accts in addition to compound trading program – so I see the election as a bonus.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

The US Dollar index is the only one I’m really watching – if it gets flight there’s a good play in $TZA. But other than that I’m not interested in playing China or Britain or any other currency related trades until after election.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX etc)

Per yesterday’s post… buy the blood in the streets and buy the over extended pivots and Fib levels (for those that don’t understand pivots and Fib levels – we will be getting in to those indicators and algo indicators after election in detail in the room).

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI $XOP #OOTT #Algo)

Per yesterday “There was a recent time / price cycle change. @EPICtheAlgo is expected to have updates on his Twitter prior to open.”

EPIC published algorithmic updates with alpha algo targets and time / price cycle terminations and traditional charting trendlines representing support and resistance! REVIEW THOSE POSTS IN DETAIL!!! This I have learned is critical. Yesterday’s trade I got that increased my small account portfolio 3.5% was all because I actually listened to the algo and took that trade yesterday.

EPIC expects a big move up or down before end of this Friday so BE SURE TO KNOW YOUR LINES!!!

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Per yesterday and last few weeks (I haven’t done much here because I rely on the algo targets and we don’t expect anything predictable until after election) “Gold, Miners, Silver I was looking for on floor down over last month per my posts and this now may do it. We will watch to election and then start putting out our algorithmic charting and traditional charting and trade it.”

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV and Copper

As above.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ, $DGAZ

Watching for a snap back and how price handles a snap back. Risky still – until otherwise. 2.90 area looks critical to me.

I continue to watch per previous. I was expecting a floor down here (as with Gold and Silver not so much) and the downdraft this morning is significant (enough? not sure yet – ask me after election lol).

Good luck! And remember, we get in to nice predictable algorithmic trading / traditional charting trading with compoound predictability shortly after election (we will just need to let trading settle in to its “natural mathematical state” for each intrument).

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups).

http://finviz.com/, https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

Curtis

07
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 7, 2016 ($USOIL Oil, $DXY US Dollar, $VIX Volatility, $GLD Gold and more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Monday November 7, 2016.

Election Trading

Premarket reports will not be detailed until after elextion.

I’m sitting tight and will trade scalps until after election. After election we will start on algorithmic trading main targets and trendlines and work with traditional indicators that I use for my trades. So for now I’m not going to get to detailed with pre-market trade plans but after election you will see very detailed trading plans for each algorithm we have in development.

Momentum Stocks

I will at times take first 30 min momo plays if and only if I think I can secure a stop that is tight and get immediate momentum on my side… I know a lot of rooms will take these plays regularly… but they aren’t normally my style because I want clear risk reward on my side and a predictable exit on my side. Compound trading works well if disciplined (and it mitigates unnecessary risk). Nonetheless, I watch morning momo plays not only for the first 30 mins but also, and more importantly, they are often the stocks I trade later in the day when they snap back after a downdraft or they continue to trend (I am looking for technical indicators such as a trending moving average, increased volume, continued trend, and more). 1 snap back or continued trend per day at 1% (or .20 cents on a 20.00 stock) over 26 months is 10k to 1.14 MM or it can be done in 6 months with 4 of these trades a day…. but it has to be low risk so you can execute stops or manual exits with-out stress and undo risk.

So just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time). These I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Markets Today – Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

Well…. Hillary isn’t guilty they say… so everyone is happy… so we have a $VIX GAP DOWN of 12.5% at time of writing… which in my thinking is awesome… A $VIX in the 19’s is closer to the 13’s or 14’s I’d like to get an entry at and is much better than reaching for 22’s and 23’s… had I only held $XIV over weekend…. but I wasn’t prepared to take the risk… I want 1% a day for 10k to 1MM in 2 years… that’s it… simple… focus.

So the snap back I was all about last week is obviously here…. but I’d be careful with holds Monday and Tuesday night… you never know… things a fucky to say the least.

I’m looking for entries on either side of the range for scalps.. for me that’s it for now with $VIX.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

From last Thursday’s trading plan…

The US Dollar was close to a Fib at 97.07 earlier so this is an interesting watch for possible long in $UUP (long) and watching $UDN close (short a basket of currencies including British Pound).

Well… it got a little better downdraft than 97.07 and snap – back happened – overnight as I write it has snapped back from 96.89 – 97.70… I trade I should not have missed – I had it set-up.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

I will be watching other currency relationships also for Fib and Pivots and will post as opportunities / time arise.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX etc)

I don’t have much to say other than… there’s the snap back and remember to watch the pivots… same here… buy the blood in the streets and buy the over extended pivots and Fib levels (for those that don’t understand pivots and Fib levels – we will be getting in to those indicators after election in detail in the room).

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI #OOTT #Algo)

There was a recent time / price cycle change. @EPICtheAlgo is expected to have updates on his Twitter prior to open. Generally speaking it was in a downdraft near some support but at significant risk… but likely a tad over-sold.. and I see at time of writing it is up in over-night trading. I’d be very cautious though – but that’s just an opinion. We’ll see what EPIC’s calculations look like.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Gold, Miners, Silver I was looking for on floor down over last month per my posts and this now may do it. We will watch to election and then start putting out our algorithmic charting and traditional charting and trade it.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

As above.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ, $DGAZ

I continue to watch per previous.

So it’s really all about our current rally, staying nimble through election and then on to charting and trading thereafter with detailed set-ups.

Good luck!

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute super-nova type plays… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups).

http://finviz.com/, https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

Curtis

04
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter (Contrarian Day or Continued Sell-Off?)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday November 4, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! The election is near, it Payroll day… and will the market continue to sell-off? Even more importantly… can I get to the pool before the rain comes – soooo beautiful during trading hours and then lightening thunder and rain right when I get there – EVERYDAY.

My trading plan today (like my post market report last night) will be very brief… both because we were up all night with equipment and software upgrades and because from now until the election not much has changed….

EXCEPT…

I pivoted late day to a contrarian play and put my money where my mouth is on it and took $XIV trades with BOTH my small day trade account and large swing account. I may or may not move in and out of that position! Stay nimble!

THE MARKET CAN STAY….. you know the rest.

Morning Momentum / Yesterday Gainers:

Prior to election I doubt I will take a morning momo play… after election yes most days I do… but morning momo is going to be a tough play IMO – that is was I have mostly sat on my hands in the morning.

IF YOU WANT TO BLOW UP YOUR ACCOUNT… MESS UP MORNING MOMO!!!

It is a bit early to post momo plays so I will post them as I see them of interest in the room and on my Twitter feed as time allows.

Anyway, from yesterday I am following:

$IQNT, $MPG, $TCCO, $EVI, $ENOC, $DRYS – Shippers and Twitter and others…

Crude Oil – FX $USOIL, $WTI | $USO $DWTI $UWTI $CL_F Etc….

EPIC the Oil Algo new algorithmic calculations are not published yet for the new price / time zone… I wouldn’t expect them until before market open Monday because the price has done NOTHING since it dropped in to it’s new zone… it did slice right through a target on Wed at 10:30 AM (red circles) and looks like it will do the same for today’s 1:00 PM algo target. You can see on the chart how the algos are trading up to the algo trendline (red dotted line) and it has done not much else – but it is UNDER that red dotted line – caution IMO.

Gold, Silver, Miners, Metals… ($JNUG, $JDST, $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST, $GLD, $SLV, $USLV etc…)

My position is intact… prior to election downdraft I was looking for downdraft (one) in Gold and Silver (if you go back to my posts you will see consistency there) and I also am prepared for Gold and Silver among others to take off… I am watching. Watch $FXY.

Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ… etc)

No clue – no clue at all – it should be running. Just like silver should be IMO.

Volatility $VIX ($UVXY, $XIV, $TVIX etc)

I think $VIX insurance was a tad over-done yesterday… but of course I have been wrong before – so I took a contrarian trade in $XIV and we’ll see. RR was good and I have room in my win rate to fail once in a while:)

US Dollar Index $DXY $UUP and $HYG, $TLT etc..

It is threatening support – I would be cautious. You never know what kind of manipulation is coming over next few trading days – I AM WATCHING IT like a hawk. The dollar, credit, $HYG, $TLT, $DXY, China $CNY and other currencies etc…. I am watching very close.

Twitter

This is such an interesting play for me now – I was interested until recently – but now I am ESPECIALLY with some big name tech companies TANKING.

In Summary… between now and the election it is all about being nimble for me.

The trade room could get really exciting or be the most boring few trading days on record!

Watch the room alerts and my Twitter feed for updates!

Good luck and stay blessed! And please… bank bank bank.

Curt

 

 

31
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for November 1, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! Trade them well!

On Watch: Momentum Follow-Through Stocks:

Looking for potential follow-through on $BRCO, $INTX, $HMNY, $NTP, $TWTR, $CETX, $NVCN, $ATOS, $AUY

I won’t explain in detail what I’m looking for in this forum (I’ll do that in that trade room for each that are considered as / if they are considered).

Monday’s momo:

$BRCO + 22%

$INTX +25%

$HMNY +7.14%

$NTP + 7.86%

$TWTR +1.64%

$CETX +5.26%

$NVCN +29.96%

$ATOS +21.05%

$AUY +4.09%

On Watch: Morning Momentum stocks TBD.

$SPY Set-up / Volatility $XIV $TVIX $UVXY $VXX 

I think there is a set-up with $SPY… wait for volatility and play it – beyond that I’m not trading $SPY or related instruments because I believe the Fed is in there and has it pinned – period. Not enough width IMO.

$SPY, $TVIX, $XIV, $UVXY

Trading $SPY Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX Etc)

$VIX – Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX, etc)

My problem with $VIX is that I can’t take a trade this high in $UVXY etc. because I would want $VIX closer to 13 (but it may get away on me) and I can’t take a trade in $XIV etc because I don’t expect volatility to settle down before the election. So I’m watching very close between now and the election. I believe there will be daily opportunity here starting Wednesday at latest – there was lots of “insurance” buys Monday… so Tuesday may even open an opportunity.

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

There is nothing broken in the US Dollar Index chart IMO. The continued targets I’ve previously posted stand unless conditions change.

$DXY, US Dollar Index

$DXY US Dollar Index 1114 PM Nov 1

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust – Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

If you’re thinking of taking a position in Gold Miner’s this is good to follow. Last night it started to turn around and miner’s ran Monday (so no surprise and should have been an easy trade – distracted lol) so watch it if it continues to rise 9/10 times miner’s will follow… I even watch it with Gold plays and even before I take a small cap Gold company or miner position.

$FXY, Yen

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust Oct 31 1121 PM

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear

Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically – it can be a great daytrade.

$TZA

$TZA, Small Cap Bear 3x

$SMK / $EWW (Mexico Capped ETF)

If you think Trump is going to win you want to short $EWW or play $SMK (however thinly traded).

Crude Oil: FX $USOIL $WTI | FXCM $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

So crude had a significant downdraft Monday (OPEC / non OPEC couldn’t get it together I guess)… and ended up trading down to a diagonal trend-line (blue) from a previous time / price cycle and very near a horizontal price support (purple) and it appears that it will be heading for the nearest target EPIC the Oil Algo called. And to make matters worse (if you review a simple chart) the neckline support with oil has been breached (not that I give that much consideration).

I was going to take a long position in $UWTI at end of day but didn’t and will strongly consider one in the morning.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Looking for entry $GLD at 114.00 / 115.00 area – but I don’t think I will get that before the election.

Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target closer to 1177.00.

On Friday I wrote that I expected Gold Miner’s to run Monday and that occurred – I will be watching them close. There again wanted a pull-back I don’t think I’m going to get.

Going in to election I am very bullish most commodities. I am currently running charts on miner companies too.

$JNUG +7.42% Monday

$JUNG

$JUNG October 31 – Junior Gold Miner’s Bull 3x

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

$SLV, Silver

$SLV Silver

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

Here also, with natural gas I am looking for one level lower for an entry. It’s at 2.99 overnight and an ideal entry would be 2.86 (or at least a review there).

$UGAZ was off 9.42% on Monday so I will watch close Tuesday.

$UGAZ

$UGAZ Oct 31 -9.42%

The Finviz stock screener is available here:  http://finviz.com/.

Look forward to seeing you in the chat room. Visit www.compoundtrading.com and click on the link on the main page to enter the chat room.

Curtis

29
Oct 2016

Today’s Trading Results – Post StockMarket Report

Post Market Report (Trade Results) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

A review of my daytrades Friday October 28, 2016.

Friday for me (actually all week)… was a tad distracting, which is not what a technical daytrader wants obviously (travelling and trade room set-up etc).

Nonetheless, there was one trade executed (should have been three or four) – and the one was moderately green. BUT! I’m looking forward to next week and I’ve promised myself to keep lazer focused.

The in-depth daily chart / algo reporting with each instrument I’m trading will not only assist the trader’s in the trade room this week – but myself also…. it’s nice to have super lazer focused preparation work to trade from (instead of on the fly – on the fly is not where I personally function best.

Ok, on to what happened today – hopefully my errors will help you avoid the same mistakes or lost opportunities.

The FX: $USOIL $WTI long trade using $UWTI

So we started the day off with the #OPEC shenanigan continuance in Vienna (the birth place of my grandfather BTW), which ended in a no oil deal Saturday and a promise to return to discussions Nov 25, 26 2017.

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/3820.htm

This I was considering as a possible catalyst for a long trade in crude oil, especially considering that the price of oil was below 50.00 and the oil producers have an amazing knack of timing their announcements right at critical points in the oil chart – even down to the termination of time / price cycles in oil. I’m convinced they are no slouches because they’re releasing announcements or chatter at points EPIC the oil algo has even identified as critical – time and time again. So knowing that EPIC had identified time / price cycle terminations and the fact that critical support was being tested AND that the price of oil was sub 50.00 was opportune timing for an announcement – but we didn’t get one – which was WAY OUT OF PATTERN for the oil producers.

$DXY was testing support… but crude was at a support that I wanted to take a trade from (it wasn’t preferable to take a crude trade when $DXY was testing support – you want $DXY to fail resistance preferably and crude to bounce and confirm off support ideally)… but I took the trade anyway because the chances of a bounce were considerable (probabilities were on my side with support bounce for sure). The other consideration was EPIC the oil Algo’s primary alpha algo targets. THE MISTAKE I MADE was that I was dealing with phone calls and various service people for the set-up of our trade room and I set a stop – and it triggered. I hate stops and usually don’t use them. Anyway, there was a small gain. Crude did take off for a nice trade after my stop was triggered but tanked to EPIC’s primary alpha algo target zone when news hit about Anthony Wiener. Which blew my mind because that was EPIC’s primary target – funny in my thinking. Epic is Epic and I should just surrender to it.

Anyway, here is that time period on Friday…

$DXY US Dollar testing support (not ideal for a long crude oil trade – I use $UWTI specifically)

My $UWTI long execution.

$DXY now at low of day… not the best scenario (I didn’t know at the time that the dollar was going to tank and breach shortly thereafter).

My distracted stop for small gain – ugh… especially when you consider what happened next…

So to throw fuel on my wounded supertrader spirit $DXY then breached a diagonal support… and I was awe man seriously? Weak dollar… strong oil (in a normal world).

So here’s the spike in oil after my stop exit… (BTW – the lower alpha algo target on this chart was actually misplace in accordance to EPIC’s call – EPIC’s target was much lower – which funny enough got a hit in the target zone – not perfect but in the zone).

So crude $USOIL $WTI got a really decent bounce before it tanked and would have been a fantastic trade (likely 4% on $UWTI – I didn’t actually look yet lol – painful) and then the price tanked right in to the target zone (not a perfect hit) but holy price tank thanks to Anthony Weiner news. If you look through EPIC the oil algo’s history on our website and on Epic the Oil Algo’s Twitter Feed you will see time and time again how right before the alpha target call the price of oil magically spikes or drops (and many times dramatically) right in to the target zone or very very close. It’s really interesting if you look at it over time.

The price of crude oil tanking right in to the primary alpha algo target zone EPIC had identified.

Below is EPIC’s call on it earlier in the week… the percentage represents how many times out of 100 EPIC has calculated that exact target will hit – and yup… the primary target zone hit – crazy IMO… I’m his inventor and I still struggle to understand how pure math can determine primary targets days in advance 92% or so of the time… and that’s not even the best way to use EPIC – the best way is intraday (which we will be doing lots of in the room). The intraday quadrants aren’t even represented on these recent charts – you can go back in to EPIC’s story to see the intra-day quadrant work sheet (which doesn’t do anyone any good now for trading because the time/price cycle has changed since, but it will show you what I mean – they look like diamonds – they’re pink)… anyway those quadrants allow for precise intra-day trading success easily over 90% scalping all day long (we had to remove them from the current charts because we’re in the process of patent applications).

Then on to the $VIX trade I missed lol – what a day…

So at this point $VIX was at resistance (if you can really say it has support and resistance)… but anyway – it is an indicator of sorts… so I was watching close for it to take off.. and then yup – you guessed it – I got distracted with other details in my business life lol and then WIENER presented the BEST TRADE OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK!!! Ugh… anyway I would have been all over $TVIX trade but nope… SO STAY FOCUSED! That’s Lesson #2 so far in this post (Lesson #1 was follow your trade plan unlike I did with oil above).

Here’s the Anthony Weiner announcement…

So the $TVIX trade was worth an easy 10% gain…

$TVIX trade

$TVIX trade

I guess the only other main daytrade miss I had was $JNUG, and my trade-plan with it was simply based on the fact that the day before $JDST got a serious lift (at one point it was +8.18%)… so I was watching for a natural pull-back and a bounce in $JNUG. SO the opportunity came just before lunch and at the double-bottom that would have been an excellent place to enter.

$JUNG Trade

$JUNG Trade

There were other miscellaneous things… but that’s the bulk of lessons from my errors of the day as I see it.

BE SURE TO READ THE PRE-MARKET REPORT BEFORE MONDAY OPEN!!! Oil and metals are VERY LIKELY going to have a big week. Not to mention the market in general considering the election turmoil.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

Curtis

28
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, $USOIL Oil, $DXY, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Good morning stock traders!

$SPY $ES_F

I don’t expect any $SPY related trading until election unless there is some unexpected “width” in trade.

$VIX – $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

I do expect to be trading $VIX related instruments between now and election… however, with current chart I would like an entry when $VIX closer to 13. It is currently 15.2.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

$DXY is far from broken – break-out still intact. Upside resistance levels. Currently at 98.84. Look for further run in $DXY ($UUP), $FXY (Japan Yen) continued pressure,  $CNY (China Renminbi/USD ETN) continued deval, possible continued run with $TZA (small cap bear), and $SMK / $EWW (Mexico) I am watching for an election play.

FX $USOIL $WTI – $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Crude #Oil

Crude is well above its traditional charting diagonal and horizontal trend line supports and within its trading range. EPIC the Oil algorithm published targets for 1:00 today and current price action is almost perfectly between the two main alpha algo targets published. There is a significant time / price cycle terminating no later than Tuesday Nov 1 at 9:00 PM ET and normally price will move in or out of current trading range before the termination. In this case my bet is a movement before 4:30 PM Tuesday but it could be anytime now.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

I was looking for an entry in $GLD at the 114.00 / 115.00 area (intra-day price 120.98) – but I don’t think now I will get that before the election (that was the plan so I will watch). Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target.

Even with the pressure on the miner’s yesterday (even though a pull-back is likely short-term), I am looking for that move to continue over next week – again with election things are more difficult to future cast.

Going in to election however, I am very bullish most commodities. WITHIN DAYS I WILL BE HUNTING DOWN company equities specific to a strong move I see coming very very SOON.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

My thesis was the recent run-up (which we got and I miss timed) – but short term as with Gold I expect on level down in the elevator (again, could be wrong) so that is what I will watch for.

Summary

With all of the charts relating to the above I will be watching for support and resistance levels that make sense to trade (trying to only take trades on major pivots is important). Next week our charting and algo charting publications will become very detailed (in separate reports) which will make this discussion and trade planning more clear as a result of the detail (and the chat room / broadcasting will be going live – that will help clarity and intra-trading too).

Have a great day! May you bank and bank more! Freedom is calling your name!

Curt

PS: Other…

US GDP on deck as I write – looks like a small increase..

Rig count today 13:00 EST

Premarket: http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616695/a-peek-into-the-markets-u-s-stock-futures-edge-higher-alphabet-posts-upb

12 Stocks To Watch:
AMGN, AMZN, CVX, Data Processing & Outsourced Services, Earnings, EXPE, GOOGL, Health Care.

http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616065/12-stocks-to-watch-for-october-28-2016

 

 

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