My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday Dec 15, 2016 in Chat room. $CBIO $BOSC $PIR $ATHN $USOIL, $WTI, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $SILVER, $SLV, $SI_F, $VIX, $UVXY $TVIX $NG_F… more.

Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session!

Important Notices:

This will be another quick report – with the recent OPEC volatility and Fed Speak volatility there is 100 times the work recalculating algorithmic models – so ya, best!

Yesterday came and went and there was some time / price cycle changes in each algorithm as a result of the Fed speak so we are including algorithm subscribers in this newsletter distribution this morning because it will be a day or two until price action settles and machine prediction is such that the algo targets. algo lines, time and price cycles, and intra trading quadrants can be published.

The trading room had issue yesterday with intermittent internet (which is bizarre because we have the best you can buy and we are supposed to be in a jurisdiction that has one of the best internet connectivity in the world). Anyway, if this occurs today (as with yesterday) we will just keep signing back in with you guys. While I am writing this is an issue again.

The algos have been nailing targets so be sure to review their Twitter feeds and the Post Market Trading Results newsletter from yesterday that was published this morning.

As far as timing is concerned with the algos, we have them all ready (the last few laggards) so when things settle over next day or two they will all finally be published in complete detail. It’s been a long seven months of work 🙂

Current Holds:

$CBMX, $JUNO, $UWT

Market Outlook:

Rupert Murdoch’s Fox announces takeover for remainder of Sky. $FOXA up 3.5% #premarket.

Momentum: $CBIO $BOSC $PIR $ATHN

Gold $GLD and Miners $GDX:

From yesterday:

Gold and miners may get a pop here with the Fed (and of course Silver in same boat). But there is the lingering bottom of the quadrant at 1133 from our Gold algo probability – so stay tight on it. $USD/JPY is off a bit in morning trade but it is also at a critical support so be careful!

In over night trading the bottom of that quadrant call was touched – so be prepared for long trade signals. We will scream it from rooftop if it comes.

Gold, Algo, Price Prediction

Gold algo price predict target 1133.00 in sight. Gold algo intra work sheet 522 AM Dec 15 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

$VIXnow that we are other side of Fed this is not high on my watch list until between Christmas and Trump power transfer.

$NATGAS $NG_F has come off some from important resistance and lost the support I was watching. Now watching 3.34 support for action there and it is trading this morning at 3.44. This is on watch with me. Although we don’t have an algo to rely on as I’ve said.

$SPY

As I wrote yesterday:

$SPY hit the resistance zone I alerted in yesterday pre-market, came off, got steam popped above it and then yesterday struggled at the resistance I alerted and through the night struggled with that 277.80 area of resistance.

$SPY in premarket s 225.88 which isn’t that far off and the chart is not broken (just need algo reset as I said) – so we will get you detailed charts soon for these resets.

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

As I wrote yesterday:

Crude oil hit its algo target at 4:30 Tuesday after market close and at time of writing at 643 AM price is on its way toward the Wed 1030 AM targets. There are indicators turning intra bearish in the upward trending channel.

It did lose support in Fed speak volatility so the bearish indicators played out, however, it is still trading in upward channel which is still over all bullish – yet weaker with resistance overhead at yellow line.

And that brings me to momo stocks and rotation therein, looks like we continue with huge opportunities there also!

If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts and at minimum of our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. And you will notice quickly that the algos have been undeniably accurate on many time-frames (intra-day and months out) so I myself have learned to respect their math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80% in my trading – all publicly posted live trades). A quick hour of review at most will bring you up to date.

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk – so often I avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks later in the day after the wash-out looking for a snap-back. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter ans Stocktwits if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $CBIO $BOSC $PIR $ATHN $DSLV $JDST $ARWR $DUST $ONVO $DGAZ $NMM $MDLZ $MTL $LLY $IDXG $KKR I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $AKAO (momentum Monday and Tuesday), $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades:  $AMD $XLNX $OKS $MMP $UNVR $TEF $CVX $HEI $FLO $PFIE $ZTS $MA $V $DXCM $SWFT $RRC $KSU $HLT $CVGW $TCBI $ZION $FHN I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades: $BPL $TEGP $PSXP $NOG $PLXS $MIDD $MOH $GIS $VRX $BBG $ZBH $EAT $WY $ACRE $OKSB $HYH $NLY $AGNC $BXMT $ARI $STWD $GIS $LADR I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Outlook:

As I wrote yesterday:

In yesterday’s premarket (as I mentioned above) I wrote about resistance the algo alerted at 277.80. This is still in play FYI. However, the Fed will determine now naturally whether we trend up or down from where we are. My bias is up until new year BUT I WOULD BE READY because money could get caught offside. Who know?

As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

As above in my intro and previous, the chart ain’t broke till its broke. When its broke we’ll let you know. Detailed charting on deck.

My Trading Plan: Right now I am trading $XIV instead of $SPXL or $SPXS. I do this because we are in a trend of crushed volatility. Now, when that changes and volatility starts to rise again (even if $SPY is rising at the same time) then I’ll flip over to trading $SPXL and $SPXS instead of $XIV.

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Outlook: Looking for possible record lows before Christmas.

As above, I am thinking opportunity comes between Christmas and Trump, and by the way, when $VIX spikes the easiest play is short short short. FYI.

CNN Fear and Greed Index: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events. SHORT $VIX SPIKES!

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

As I wrote over and over again since July 2016 when our algo locked the math in:

BE VERY CAREFUL LISTING TO THE $USD/JPY bears – they have been feeding misery to followers for many weeks – the chart is not broke – price is currently at support and there could easily be another leg up – nobody knows but the trend is your friend!

THIS IS STILL SUPER BULLISH!!!

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

Per recent posts:

My Trading Plan for Gold: Short term there could be a pretty good pop around the Fed, but I don’t expect it would last. It could pop to the top of the algo quadrant but I don’t think it would run past – NOT YET ANYWAY. So who know’s I may play a short term scenario – Fed / market reaction dependent.

Per yesterday:

I am waiting for the trend reversal. We are very close to the price target at the bottom of that quadrant at 1133.00 ish. The initial wide frame target Rosie the algo nailed but there has been a wait and see for a reversal because of one more possible leg down. Getting very close IMO.

I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.

WE SHOULD BE ALMOST THERE! GET READY! LIKELY BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND TRUMP POWER TRANSFER! CHARTS COMING!

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock). When the trend reversal confirms I will post all the Gold equity picks here.

Silver $SI_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

AS I WROTE LONG AGO – IT WILL HOLD UP BETTER THAN GOLD BUT I TRADE IT LONG WITH GOLD LONG ANYWAY. A downtrend is a down no matter how you look at it.

My Plan for Trading Silver: same

Per previous;

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Silver fighting with resistance. It could pop to 200 MA on 1 week. Possible. $SI_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock). Same here, when trend reversal occurs I will post equity picks here.

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

Outlook:

Tuesday algo target at 4:30 hit and Wednesday 10:30 AM both targets hit to the cent and second. 

Per yesterday:

There are concerning indicators that could cause crude to visit the bottom of the upward trending channel – so I am watching close at the critical supports. Also waiting for Fed speak market reactions.

Trading Plan: I am in here and I will hammer down more if it gains a support and runs. Friday targets are above and below so this is a tough place.

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Natural Gas $NG_F $NATGAS ($UGAZ, $DGAZ):

Per yesterday:

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted.

Natural Gas hit heavy resistance, came off, now at a Fibonacci support. $NG_F $UGAZ $DGAZ

ON WATCH!!! This could get a considerable pop in to late Wednesday and even as far as in to late Monday next week is possible!!!

Natural gas lost that Fib support yesterday so now I am watching lower supports. I still think there is a possibility for a pop just after Fed speak!

ON CLOSE WATCH!

Study:

Now that a number of blog posts are being unlocked, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for traders to review them (especially new traders).

If you are trading relying on our charting or algorithms as trade indicators you should read this recent article, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different.”

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics: $CBIO $BOSC $PIR $ATHN Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, Small Cap Oil, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS, $DWT, $UWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY


Thursday Dec 15, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.

NOTICES:

NEW: We are having a technical coding issue with SMS text / email alert launch – will be resolved soon!

NEW: We will try and do a better job not relying just on our broadcasting voice alerts in the room because there are folks that are on cell phones that can’t hear our audio alerts so we will do our best to type the details of a trade etc intraday in the room text box. It will be easier when our full time staff are in the room in the new year because a lot of that load will be taken of the shoulders of the traders. AND, if you get kicked off because you lose service on your phone and you sign back in and you lose track of conversation just tell us in the room and we’ll email you the text you missed while you were away from room (as long as we have time). And finally, we will have the text alerts going over next few days but they won’t be perfect until early Jan when our staff are with us.

NEW: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most” If you are using our algorithms it is a must read.

ETN’s: $UWTI and $DWTI have been resurrected by CitiGroup! $UWT and $DWT http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

LOCKED POSTS: Starting mid December the Member Editions will become available (be unlocked to general public) within days of original publication. Portions that include algorithmic calls and charting that are still in play will not be published until they expire.

MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.

LIVE CHARTS: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.

PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.

24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24 hr crude oil trade room.

PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-over existing members will be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.

SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.

HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. If you need assistance email your questions to [email protected], message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.

FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:

Today will not be a detailed report because the markets have shifted so much globally the last 24 hours. Please refer to prevoius reports so you have the story line.

Here is the new : Live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart Link

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/cSRpFCYI-USOIL-EPIC-the-Algo-Member-Chart/ –> arrow indicators on this chart

Price of crude oil came off during Fed speak yesterday and is now trading under major support (yellow line white arrow). Yesterday had crude HIT BOTH EPIC THE ALGO TARGETS for the Wednesday at 10:30 target time. The primary target hit literally to the second and cent of the call and the secondary target right above hit a couple seconds later to the exact cent!!! Alpha algo targets are in site for Friday 1:00 PM (you will see them on chart).

Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 51.23 (602 AM ET Dec 15, 2016). Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge:

Crude, Oil, Chart, Indicators

Crude oil trade indicators. Crude algo intra work sheet 602 AM Dec 15 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DET #OOTT #algo

Multi Week Trading Range for Swing Trading:

Note: Be carfeful with the prices you see in the purple boxes on the right of the chart – they do not line up on chart for price action (they are for indicators).

For swings, trade between the yellow lines – they are your primary support and resistance. The recent support intra was breached yesterday! I will detail new support and resistance on next report but for now look over the chart and trade the yellow lines at minimum. Also marked with white arrows on chart above.

Also, pay attention to the upward trending channel – you can enter long and sell in between the channel yellow lines as it trends.

If price stays below the resistance at then you trade the channel under that.

If you have any questions email [email protected] with direct questions for direct answers. Or ask in the trade room in a private message to the lead trader.

Diagonal Trend Lines:

So when price dropped it did stop at a diagonal trend line (blue line with green arrow) – these are important to watch. There is another below marked with a green arrow and the others on the chart are not marked. When price lost its support yesterday and it took a dive it lost it at a diagonal trend line.

Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.

There is one diagonal trend line above intra price and on two below (blue diagonal thin lines trending up). Look at the chart above – you will see where the diagonal trend lines are trending – WATCH THEM CLOSE. And remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this blog so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!

Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA

On the chart above the 200 MA is marked with an orange arrow – it is will above price – watch this for resistance. If there was more time available this morning I would look at the 200 MA on each time frame because you need to be aware of where the 200 MA is on 5 15 30 1hr charts because it will play a role in support and resistance with crude trading 80% of the time. So do yourself a favor and be sure your running the MA’s on your own charting.

Fibonacci Levels:

I have left the Fib lines on this chart from a few days because they are still valid and running tighter intra ones right now isn’t productive because of the volatility experienced. So you either visit the trade room for them or run them on your charting so you are aware also of the Fib lines specific to the time frame you are trading.

Watch these lines for support and resistance. I don’t use them as tradtional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.

Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):

Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.

Advanced Charting:

Respect support and resistance lines:

If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines for now that is your highest probability trading. With the recent geo political volatility with the Fed speak it makes the algo targets difficult because crude is not trading in its “natural” state that occurs when the geo political banter stops.

As I wrote yesterday:

Crude oil is still bullish – but there is a high probability that crude oil either visits the bottom of the channel yellow lines (diagonal) either this Friday or early next week – the Fed speak may have some bearing on this too so stay tuned!

Yes, the Fed speak came and crude oil price did lose the yellow support line and that line now becomes resistance!

Oil Time / Price Cycles:

Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator I use as a trader and EPIC’s record with them is near 100% – and that’s since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that I as a trader do not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at a termination of a time cycle if I am not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. I will however go really deep in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE if we are trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if we were trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and I knew there was a significant time cycle about to terminate I would go really heavy with a long. The price really spikes or drops hard when these important time cycles terminate. Fantastic plays.

The problem with time / price cycle terminations is that they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert – now we will do everything we can in future to send these on SMS but I want to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds weird but we’ve hit them just shy of 100%. And the oil political guys know the same thing and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THESE TIME CYCLE TERMINATIONS. So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of things)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, its where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle terminate – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day qudrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.

Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.

If you review EPIC’s Twitter feed, blog posts and his story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these are.

THE CHART ABOVE SHOWS CRUDE TRADING IN A TRIANGLE (in white). If the price stays in the triangle price is 99% going to spike significantly to the upside or downside before it leaves the triangle at or near the end (usually well before the end). In this instance if price is still in triangle at 1:00 Friday (red dotted vertical line) this could very well be when price will spike or drop out of that triangle.

We will update you in the trading room or by email notice if any other significant time / price cycles occur intra day.

Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):

To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.

The alpha algo trendlines are on the chart above and there are two above price and one below price (orange arrows) – because they are so far away from the trading price be careful because the machines will take price to either of them so watch price action. Those trend lines are like the highway for machine trading that take the trading price to the target (circle).

Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):

I can report that the alpha algo primary probability target prediction from last week for Wednesday December 7 at 10:30 as a direct hit for that time / price cycle. And so did the Friday target at 1:00 PM as a direct hit! And Tuesday this week 4:30 target was a hit and Wednesday was incredible right to the exact cent and second for the time and price target prediction! As I mentioned at the beginning of this post! 

Crude Oil, Price, Target, Algo, Hit

Close-up of exact penny to the exact second in 9 day advance call. 1258PM Dec 14 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

Show me another algo on Wall Street that is available to the public that can do that!

So what is your most probable algo target for Friday 1:00 EST? Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable. Crude is currently trending toward a target (red circles on chart) Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).

The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel or whatever – also difficult to explain – WE ARE DOING A VERY DETAILED VIDEO ON THESE INDICATORS SOON THAT WILL SHOW IN MORE DETAIL.

The targets for this week are represented on the chart above and for the ones above you will need to follow the algo lines. Again, refer to the live charting I send you for this also or be in the trading room.

Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.

Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.

Also, please be sure to refer to the most recent post for your algo targets (there is an additional target as mentioned on the chart above now of course also).

Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

As I wrote yesterday:

Well we just got to a point where we were in a trading range and the quadrants were getting locked in last week and the geo political interference caused the break-out in crude oil price. So we need to wait now for Wednesday targets to expire and maybe Friday – but we’re getting to the point where we’ll be able to get aggressive with them soon because I am convinced the geo political catalysts will settle down for a while.

I completely neglected to consider / remember the Federal Reserve speak at 2:00 PM Wednesday. So now we wait until price action settles and then I will publish them.

Indicator Methods:

As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.

You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.

We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion:

That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.

Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.

EPIC the Oil Algo

Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets


Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades, Algorithm Charting Calls and Alerts for Wednesday Dec 14 – $UWT, $SPY, $VIX, $GLD, $GDX, $USDJPY, $DXY, $USOIL, $WTIC, $NG_F, $UGAZ and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive.

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

Notices:

Notice: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most“. If you are using our algorithms or charting it is a must read.

Notice: We are testing fault settings for multiple trading rooms in 2017 (main room, momentum, options, swing, commodities, etc). We can have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen and announcements / broadcast – if you’re moved don’t sweat it – it won’t affect your experience.

$SPY: The S&P 500 Algorithm is starting to fire on all cylinders too (which is good – its 5th in development process so its newer than others).

From my post market report Monday,

Well, we have Fed talk Wednesday so yes the market may oompff a bit – but I expect it to run again until near Christmas or even closer to Preident Elect Donald Trump’s power transition.

I followed up with a warning in the member’s premarket with specific area of challenge in $SPY chart at 227.80.

Price action on $SPY struggled with that area all day and remained a challenge overnight, Wed Fed day challenged price action and overnght it is still struggling BUT THE CHART IS NOT BROKE and until otherwise our algo predicts are in play (new reports processing and available within a day or three).

And our $VIX algo been hitting it on intra calls too which is awesome to see.

Gold – $GLD $GDX $GDXJ $NUGT $DUST $JNUG $JDST $GC_F

Per yesterday:

Our Gold and Silver algorithms have said wait on a buy because of the 90% chance of Gold going to lower quadrant (you’d have to see our Gold algo Twitter to get the whole story – but the calls have been in place for months while many were bullish on Gold prior to election in Summer and Fall 2016)… anyway so Gold did deflate more as called – so yes, Gold and Silver algos hitting perfect too. These are exact price calls BTW. And the $DXY algo has been nailing it.

So our Gold price target of 1163 from months back has hit and overnight it got down to 1151 which puts Gold very close to the 90% probability of a hit to bottom of quadrant from @RosietheAlgo with posts going way back.

Gold, Algo, Price Prediction

Gold algo price predict target 1133.00 in sight. Gold algo intra work sheet 522 AM Dec 15 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

$USOIL $WTIC $USO $UCO $SCO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP

So that leaves our inaugural algo EPIC!

From yesterday:

Epic the Oil Algo calls price and time for every Tuesday at 4:30, Wednesday at 10:30 and Friday at 1:00 (and much more than those calls) the week prior in his newsletter oil reports the week prior so that traders can plan their trades etc. Anyway… the Tuesday at 4:30 price and time target zone was hit yet once again! He’s firing at 93.3% call win rate (all published in advance like all over our algos).

And what do you know! Wednesday EPIC the Oil Algo HIT THE PRICE PREDICT TARGET TO THE EXACT CENT AT THE EXACT SECOND OF THE PREDICTION NINE DAYS PRIOR!

So were weren’t sure which target was going to hit – funny thing is primary target hit right to the cent at the second of the call and the secondary target hit about 2 seconds later right to the exact cent also. What a day for EPIC. Below is a shot of when price was on its way to targets and above is price of crude hitting both called targets within seconds of each other.

EPIC, Oil, Trading, Chart, Newsletter

Price on its way to highest probability targets identified for Wed 1030 AM. Crude algo intra work sheet 439 AM Dec 14 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Our Trades:

I only took a couple long positions in my swing account on $UWT and held overnight.

So the room was really quiet because of the Fed speak.

Mathew has BEEN NAILING his trades and his alerts in the room have been awesome. He’ll be in the broadcasting daily here soon with me alerting his trades too and posting results and a pre market watch list on blog soon also.

Primary Lessons That May Help You With Your Trades:

Nothing new here from me.

Again, Mathew would have a book full of lessons with his trades lately (lots for folks to learn there) so it will be nice to have him on audio broadcasting in the room and I look forward to his watch lists and blog posts.

Looking Forward:

Now we are waiting for price action for our six algos to confirm targets etc and we’ll trade the other side of this inflection. IT IS GOING TO BE NUTS! Watch the algos on this inflection trade!

Announcements in Trading Room:

09:02 am Curtis M : Notice: We are testing fault settings for multiple trading rooms in 2017 (main room, momentum, options, swing, commodities, etc). We can have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen and announcements / broadcast – if you’re moved don’t sweat it – it won’t affect your experience.

09:09 am Curtis M : $VCEL $BCLI $NSR $IDXG $ADHD $GOL $RCON $RUSS $DWT $AMRS $PRTO $SCO $OPHT $JNUG $LYG $MTL

09:11 am Curtis M : Notice: We are testing fault settings for multiple trading rooms in 2017 (main room, momentum, options, swing, commodities, etc). We can have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen and announcements / broadcast – if you’re moved don’t sweat it – it won’t affect your experience.

01:51 pm Curtis M : We are experiencing intermittent internet outages in our area – if we stop broadcasting we will re-enter after each outage.

Stock Chat-room Trading Transcript:

Miscellaneous chatter is removed.

09:11 am Curtis M : On Watch: $VCEL $BCLI $NSR $IDXG $ADHD $GOL $RCON
09:27 am Mathew Waterfall : Wouldn’t be too surprised to see a bit of a shake and bake into the fed as we are all pretty nervous overall. I’ll be sitting on my hands unless something crazy happens
09:27 am Curtis M : Watching $VCEL over 4 and dont see a lot of action this side of Fed FYI likely sit
09:31 am Curtis M : 52 week highs $NSR $RACE
09:32 am John M : Short $AKAO
09:32 am Mathew Waterfall : $CRBP pop off open. I am putting a trailer on this
09:33 am MarketMaven M : $VRX long 14.75
09:34 am Sammy T : Was going to short $VCEl glad I didn’t POP
09:35 am Mathew Waterfall : Out of $CRBP at 8.2. Didn’t get much out of that, want to lighten up before the fed. Small win
09:35 am Curtis M : $ADMP vol on scan
09:43 am Curtis M : 53 Week New highs $CDZI $DF $HOV $LIOX $MC $RICK
09:44 am MarketMaven M : Long $NWBO small
09:45 am Curtis M : Looking at oil related long near support post Fed and Natural Gas – likely sit on hands
09:46 am Mathew Waterfall : Couple $AAPL weekly 118’s @.25. Looking for some continuation afer breaking out of the bull flag pattern
09:46 am Mathew Waterfall : Fill at .23 it looks like
09:47 am Mathew Waterfall : And $CRBP taking off after I’m out lol love that
09:50 am Ronny D : $AKAM looks decent long now.
09:52 am Curtis M : Crude support test here.
09:53 am Curtis M : If crude doesn’t hold this support and hits downdraft check your algo target below. Lots of air.
09:54 am Mathew Waterfall : $ON Jan 13c’s. Bought a few at .55. If this slips I’m out, but just broke above resistance and saw soe good buying action this AM
09:56 am Mathew Waterfall : IRAQ IS RAISING OIL EXPORTS, NOT CUTTING — SOMO SHIPPING DOCUMENT: DOW JONES
09:59 am Mathew Waterfall : FANG on th move. $AAPL and $FB moving north with $NFLX lagging
10:01 am Ronny D : Short $JPM
10:02 am Curtis M : Crude bulls have it over support
10:12 am MarketMaven M : Nice buys in CL
10:14 am Mathew Waterfall : Whoever had the $VRX long be careful. It looks pretty weak here and from now until the end of the year it’s a prime tax loss sell candidate
10:16 am Mathew Waterfall : $JPM and $GC trying to go green. $BAC already there. Rate hike already baked in but these might get an extra little pop off of the hike news
10:18 am Curtis M : $BAC Im sure I got wacked on Fed day last year too – cant recall who else brought that up
10:21 am Curtis M : EPIC target looking good for price and time predict for 10:30 AM today – in target zone
10:31 am Mathew Waterfall : $AKS and $CLF ripping. If you followed me in you can take small gains here, I’m holding but will consider dumping half of my position if they double to cover costs and let the rest ride free
10:54 am Curtis M : Sorry guys was just doing some high fives in the lab there
10:55 am Curtis M : So oil is bullish
10:56 am Curtis M : As long as oil holds the support lines (yellow) the next targets are up
10:57 am Curtis M : Keeop in mind Friday targets are less predictive than Tues and Wed but they are good too like 85%
11:02 am Carol B : Unbelievable EPIC call guys
11:03 am Curtis M : Epic the Oil Algo is my buddy lfor sure. Called that target to the penny and second.
11:23 am Mathew Waterfall : $FANG getting beat on here a bit. Still holding the $AAPL calls small position high R/R if it can fill that gap to the 118’s. $TSLA also looks interesting but calls are a little high with only 2 day sleft in the week here
11:24 am Curtis M : Sorry guys back – quick call there
11:25 am Mathew Waterfall : Casinos also looking lively here. They should get some mojo back shortly IMO
11:26 am Sammy T : I like the casinos but waiting until Fed too – we should all go on early lunch soon n come back for Fed
11:26 am Curtis M : Not a bad idea lol
11:27 am Mathew Waterfall : I debated sleeping in today thinking the morning would be slow. I was right but didn’t sleep in. I think you’re on to something Sammy
11:28 am Curtis M : Ya u guys arre prob right Ill be in lab anyway so Ill be 10 feet from monitors f anything shakes
11:28 am OILKING K : Will be quiet until after Fed for sure
11:48 am Mathew Waterfall : $ON continued call sweeps into this weakness. Interesting as it broke my chart levels, retraced, and is still getting big buys all morning
11:49 am Carol B : CL looks strong
11:52 am Mathew Waterfall : $CLF $AKS strong. Also looks like I should have taken those $TSLA calls
11:53 am Curtis M : Fed might decide $TSLA direction
11:54 am Mathew Waterfall : I just hate trading that stock, so manipulated it’s not even funny
11:55 am Mathew Waterfall : Because I am scared I am putting a stop on the rest of my $LVS Dec30 60c’s. Currently trading.8, stop at my buy which was .53
11:55 am Mathew Waterfall : Already rolled the $MGM to take profit and sold against the $WYNN for those keeping track so not as worried about those positions
12:09 pm Mathew Waterfall : More $CLF sweepers coming through. Also seeing some $IWM play betting on a strong bounce post fed
12:13 pm Curtis M : Long $UWT
12:13 pm Mathew Waterfall : Not sure if or when we will get there but orders in on $AKS and $CLF calls. Selling half of both at the double mark to keep the other half of each for a longer term play
12:25 pm Mathew Waterfall : $LVS stopped raised a dime to .63. Will let this play out, but want to make sure I get some profits so likely last raise until stock hits 59.5-60
12:41 pm darni t : I’d like to follow you on that UWT long but I am going to wait for Fed
12:41 pm Curtis M : Ya I get it. Im in small. Waiting too.
01:00 pm Mathew Waterfall : $LVS approaching 2 bagger. 1.015 flasshing from .53 entry. Not a horrible time to step off the ride but I am greedy and let my winners run
01:01 pm Mathew Waterfall : What I’m watching in $AKS http://tos.mx/cqcKoF
01:14 pm Mathew Waterfall : $LVS stop raise again. If we can hit the 59.5 monday premarkey high today, I’ll likely lock and sell. If not I’ll let it keep working as I think all of the casinos will see their Friday highs here before too long
01:17 pm OILKING K : I think market going to fly high soon. Very soon.
01:22 pm Mathew Waterfall : I hope you’re right OKK. Also, if you guys are looking at set ups post them up. Or if you think we can help break down a chart or something we can work on that as well
01:23 pm Sammy T : Thanks Matt!
01:23 pm Mathew Waterfall : Shoot me a PM if you don’t want to post it here for some reason
01:23 pm Michael P : i will prepare some stuff this week for you to look at Matt
01:23 pm Mathew Waterfall : Sounds good
01:36 pm Mathew Waterfall : Out half $AKS Dec23 11’s. .41 from .23. Sold a bit earlier than planned but IV just cranked on these guys so I took to opportunity. Will hold the other half. Sticking to plan on $CLF as I have more time there with the Jan17 12c’s
01:39 pm Mathew Waterfall : Have an open order to sell half of those $CLF calls for .45 for anyone wondering. Again, not saying we get there but some of these fed decisions envoke a kneejerk reaction
01:42 pm Curtis M : Huge internet outages in our area right now – its fibre too
01:44 pm OILKING K : Ya it seemed to freeze on my end here
01:46 pm Carol B : Yellen show time soon.
01:46 pm stockman H : Looking long $SMRT right after Yellen
01:54 pm Curtis M : Yellen might just try and throw Trump under bus:)
01:58 pm Mathew Waterfall : I love the fed frontrunning. LEt’s see how excited the boys are today
01:58 pm Curtis M : lol
01:58 pm Mathew Waterfall : $VIX smash
02:04 pm Edward Johansson : why is the market going the opposite of the rake hike?
02:05 pm Edward Johansson : or is that just normal bouncing around?
02:05 pm Curtis M : Offside money
02:06 pm Curtis M : Institutions have to hold in to 2017 retail can cause some downdraft but not for long IMO
02:06 pm Mathew Waterfall : Yepp plus you always see big swings as people bet both sides
02:06 pm Curtis M : yup
02:06 pm Mathew Waterfall : 3 projected in 2017. Stupid if they do, they projected 4 last year though and we got 1 so who knows
02:08 pm Curtis M : Matt – u have chart on your screen? Were getting hammered by internet outages
02:08 pm Mathew Waterfall : $MPEL Dec 23 18.5’s. Sweepers all over this earlier with nice price action. Filled at .3 small position to start will add if it gets some juice
02:09 pm Mathew Waterfall : I can share mine hold on
02:12 pm Curtis M : Wierd – oh well it may go in and out all afternoon
02:13 pm Mathew Waterfall : Let me know if you want to switch to my front screen. I had to install the screen sharing program but it looks like Im set up
02:14 pm stockman H : I will be buying this dip – not sure when but I am buying it
02:14 pm Curtis M : not much of a dp yet
02:15 pm Mathew Waterfall : Covered those $WYNN Dec23 102c’s that I sold against my 100’s. Covered at .25 from .49. Will resell another set if $wynn gets a pop as I expect
02:32 pm Mathew Waterfall : $AAPL handling this well. $IWM taking it on the chin here pretty hard
02:35 pm Carol B : I will be on long side of this soon I think
02:41 pm Mathew Waterfall : Added $AKS Dec30 11c’s at .42 for a bounce to preFOMC levels. Will watch this and cut if it doesn’t get going
02:42 pm Curtis M : Long $UWT scaling another 1000
02:42 pm Curtis M : 300 prior – small entries yet
03:11 pm Mathew Waterfall : Out of second $AKS position. Will revisit after this flush. Think the maket keeps grinding higher from here but I don’t want to sit through the pain. Still holding half of original position after selling half this AM preFOMC
03:14 pm Curtis M : I thought $WYNN would do better
03:18 pm Mathew Waterfall : Same here. I don’t think it’s over for the casinos but if the market is selling off they will go along as well
03:19 pm Curtis M : I still dont think the market or oil going far – rubber band coming next 3 trading days at most IMO
03:19 pm Mathew Waterfall : Agreed. Everything still looks mostly constructive
03:20 pm Curtis M : This aint last year totally different
03:20 pm Mathew Waterfall : Most were looking for a reason to sell off. Should snap back and I would bet on another all time high before xmas
03:21 pm Curtis M : yup
03:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : $IWM Dec23 138.5c’s at .32 for the snap. Putting my money where my mouth is after it just got kicked
03:38 pm Mathew Waterfall : Big $TICK’s coming through here and $VIX slam.
03:51 pm Mathew Waterfall : And now huge $TICKs to the downside. I’m sleeping on all of my positions. Snapback still in play IMO
03:51 pm Curtis M : yup
03:56 pm Curtis M : Well I am in $UWT hold overnight if more downdraft over nnight I wll hit it again soon – Have a great night guys and gals!
03:56 pm Carol B : you too curt
03:56 pm Mathew Waterfall : See ya in the AM guys
03:57 pm darni t : thanks for the good work Matt and Curtis

You can follow along with public calls our algorithms post on Twitter here:

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

 

Article Topics: Compound Trading, Trading Lessons, Results, Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Investing, Chat Room, Trading Results, $GLD $GDX $USOIL $WTIC $SPY $DXY $VIX $GLD $GDX $GDXJ $NUGT $DUST $JNUG $JDST $GC_F $USOIL $WTIC $USO $UCO $SCO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP $SPY S&P 500


My Stock Trading Plan for Wednesday Dec 14, 2016 in Chatroom. $VCEL, $AKAO, $ADMP, $CETX, $NG_F, $SILVER, $SLV, $SL_F, $VIX, $UVXY $TVIX, $USOIL, $WTI, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $USD/JPY, $SPY … more.

Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session!

Important Notices:

Fed speak Wed 2:00 PM EST.

$UWTI $DWTI have been resurrected as $UWT and $DWT – this is a massive thing for my trading to say the least. http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

Current Holds:

$CBMX, $JUNO

Market Outlook:

Watch out for the upcoming Fed road bumps – stay nimble.

$VCEL News:Administration (FDA) has approved MACI® (autologous cultured chondrocytes on porcine collagen membrane)

U.S. and Macau sign anti-tax evasion pact #premarket $WYNMF $WYNMY $SCHYY $SCHYF

Gold $GLD and Miners $GDX may get a pop here with the Fed (and of course Silver in same boat). But there is the lingering bottom of the quadrant at 1133 from our Gold algo probability – so stay tight on it. $USD/JPY is off a bit in morning trade but it is also at a critical support so be careful!

$VIX as I have been saying for a few days is on watch with me around Fed ($XIV).

$NATGAS $NG_F has come off some from important resistance and yesterday lost the support I was watching. Now watching 3.34 support for action there.

$SPY hit the resistance zone I alerted in yesterday’s premarket, came off, got steam popped above it and then yesterday struggled at the resistance I alerted and through the night struggled with that 277.80 area of resistance.

$VIX – volatility I called almost to the minute Monday and again yesterday and didn’t capitalize on it – $VIX should get some spiking today also. So I am watching close $TVIX $UVXY.

Crude oil hit its algo target at 4:30 Tuesday after market close and at time of writing at 643 AM price is on its way toward the Wed 1030 AM targets. There are indicators turning intra bearish in the upward trending channel.

And that brings me to momo stocks and rotation therein, looks like we continue with huge opportunities there also!

If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts and at minimum of our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. And you will notice quickly that the algos have been undeniably accurate on many time-rames (intra-day and months out) so I myself have learned to respect their math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80% in my trading – all publicly posted live trades). A quick hour of review at most will bring you up to date.

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk – so often I avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks later in the day after the wash-out looking for a snap-back. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter ans Stocktwits if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $VCEL $OMAM $DWT $JNUG $SCO $LYG $ERY $MTL $NUGT $MDLZ $NVDA $SLV $DGAZ $BTI $STM $GDX $IAU I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $AKAO (momentum Monday and Tuesday), $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades: $FOXA $HEOP $KR $SAGE $IRE $NVDA $VVC $NI $RRGB $DV $FFIV $ATHM $SEAS $AKAM $PX $MRO $USM $KLAC $NLSN I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades:$QCOM $PRTO $UHS $BRKR $FNBC $ARAY $AIRG $OLP $KALU $FPI $ICFI $ZAYO $AHH  I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Outlook:

In yesterday’s premarket (as I mentioned above) I wrote about resistance the algo alerted at 277.80. This is still in play FYI. However, the Fed will determine now naturally whether we trend up or down from where we are. My bias is up until new year BUT I WOULD BE READY because money could get caught offside. Who know?

As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

My Trading Plan: Right now I am trading $XIV instead of $SPXL or $SPXS. I do this because we are in a trend of crushed volatility. Now, when that changes and volatility starts to rise again (even if $SPY is rising at the same time) then I’ll flip over to trading $SPXL and $SPXS instead of $XIV.

$SPY, Chart, Member, Alert

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Outlook: Looking for possible record lows before Christmas.

There was interesting action late Friday while $SPY was rising in $VIX and $XIV and then again Monday and Tuesday $SPY and $VIX had a run at the same time!

I had alerted this and it is an indicator of offside plays at times (I don’t think it is here however).

Per yesterday:

Watch for volatility to rise on a trend – even if $SPY is still rising – volatility is a great indicator for what’s around the corner.

I WOULD PREPARE FOR A POP IN VOLATILITY BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON and even perhaps in to next week Tuesday.

CNN Fear and Greed Index: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

BE VERY CAREFUL LISTING TO THE $USD/JPY bears – they have been feeding missery to followers for many weeks – the chart is not broke – price is currently at support and there could easily be another leg up – nobody knows but the trend is your friend!

Pre previous: Inflection point. No clear direction. $USD/JPY not backing off yet. Our $DXY algo had 100.50 as a PT so I’m watching. Lots of fundamentals at work here and geo.

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

My Trading Plan for Gold: Short term there could be a pretty good pop around the Fed, but I don’t expect it would last. It could pop to the top of the algo quadrant but I don’t think it would run past – NOT YET ANYWAY. So who know’s I may play a short term scenario – Fed / market reaction dependent.

Per yesterday:

I am waiting for the trend reversal. We are very close to the price target at the bottom of that quadrant at 1133.00 ish. The initial wide frame target Rosie the algo nailed but there has been a wait and see for a reversal because of one more possible leg down. Getting very close IMO.

I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock). When the trend reversal confirms I will post all the Gold equity picks here.

Silver $SI_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

My Plan for Trading Silver:

Per previous;

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Silver fighting with resistance. It could pop to 200 MA on 1 week. Possible. $SI_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock). Same here, when trend reversal occurs I will post equity picks here.

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

Outlook:

Per yesterday:

Crude oil is trading within and respecting the main support and resistance areas of its upward channel. I am trading the support and resistance margins – I will consider shortside at the top of the channel or resistance and long at the bottom of the channel.

Crude has it its algo targets crazy consistently for weeks. Had I played oil the way EPIC laid out the plays I would be retired 3 x over now. Overnight the downdraft continued. Yesterday at 4:30 the target hit and it looks like algo targets for Wednesday 10:30 AM are in play on the chart. There are concerning indicators that could cause crude to visit the bottom of the upward trending channel – so I am watching close at the critical supports. Also waiting for Fed speak market reactions.

Trading Plan: Waiting.

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Natural Gas $NG_F $NATGAS ($UGAZ, $DGAZ):

Per yesterday:

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted.

Natural Gas hit heavy resistance, came off, now at a Fibonacci support. $NG_F $UGAZ $DGAZ

ON WATCH!!! This could get a considerable pop in to late Wednesday and even as far as in to late Monday next week is possible!!!

Natural gas lost that Fib support yesterday so now I am watching lower supports. I still think there is a possibility for a pop just after Fed speak!

Study:

Now that a number of blog posts are being unlocked, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for traders to review them (especially new traders).

If you are trading relying on our charting or algorithms as trade indicators you should read this recent article, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different.”

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, Small Cap Oil, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS, $DWT, $UWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY


S&P 500 $SPY Trading Chart Update Wednesday Dec 14 $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS) Chart and Algorithm Observations

Dec 14, 2016 Freedom the $SPY Algo Trading Report.

Good morning! My name is Freedom the $SPY Algo. Welcome to my new S&P trade report.

IMPORTANT NOTICES:

Short Term Pause: As I warned since last week, the machines have stopped trading as of noon yesterday and the resistance I alerted on a number of occasions is where the machines stopped trading. Until we are on the other side of Fed speak today I cannot provide algorithmic targets, lines, quadrants or time / price cycle terminations. However, I will process the indications as soon as possible post Fed (usually within two days of a Fed speech they are ready). My apologies for the short term pause in algorithm indicators. 

Development News: The charting for members will become much more involved over the coming weeks (the algorithmic proprietary details). Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members. Full charting disclosure expected before Jan 15, 2017 for members.

How My Algorithm Works and Availability:

I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on individual merit) such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and other mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo integration – only math. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of the S&P500 (more specifically $SPY). In early 2017 I will also provide algo indicators and charting for $ES_F.

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered as one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.

My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and a recent post by my developer that explains more about “Why Our Algorithms are Different than Most“.

I Am In Very Early Stage Development

My algorithm is the fifth in the line of six that my developers are working with – which means I am in the very early stages. So you will find my charting below to be very simple (relative to say the first algo they developed EPIC the Oil algo). So if you find that my initial charting does not assist you with an edge in your trading please let the office know by emal [email protected] within 30 days at most of signing on so they can refund you. If you do chose that option, you can always check back early 2017 when my algorithm processes / indicators for your trading edge will be very extensive (mid Jan).

$SPY Trading Observations:

At time of writing $SPY is trading at 227.76 (7:24 EST). Some thoughts that may help advance you trading edge;

Yesterday (Tuesday) mornining around 4:00 AM I alerted my subscribers to an algorithm cluster for resistance at 227.80 – 227.96. Price jumped up to this resistance in early egular market trading and then came off after 10:00 AM. By noon price action was testing this alerted resistance again. The price did shortly after pop up for a short time and then back under the resistance. Price then struggled with resistance for the remainder of the trading day Tuesday. In extended hours and overnight the trading is still challenged at this resistance. So the algorithmic call on that cluster is proving to be sound. At 7:24 AM Wednesday this the case also.

$SPY, Chart, Member, Alert

Geo Political Predictions:

My algorithm is not based on geo political events at all, however, my develpers will offer macro view comments as they see fit. You will recall that prior to the election we were sending a clear message that we expected the market to continue to run and our target short term (between Sept 1 2016 and Jan 1 2017) was in the area of 230.00 – 235.00.

Our new observations are that it seems our observations do have the potential to be not aggresive enough. In other words, it is probable that price will extend past our predictions but not absolute in our thinking. We will update you on the macro algorithm targets post Fed speak and as other milestones are crossed such as Christmas, Jan 1 and the inaugeration.

For now, the trading price is nearing our 230.00 – 235.00 call from September expiring at Christmas.

Divergence and Patterns

Yesterday, the $VIX was rising while $SPY was rallying intra-day. I have been alerting our members since last Friday that this would occur. You can also look to this possibility Wed morning and possibly (depending on the Fed speak) on the other side of the Fed.

It is difficult for me to calculate divergence indicators today because of the Fed speak, but I wll post Fed and provide you with clarity.

Fibonacci

Yesterday the resistance I alerted also corresponded with the Fibonacci extension (as predicted). This is still in play. The extension is in the chart from yesterday below.

S&P 500 $SPY, $ES_F, $SPXL, $SPXS

227.80 Fibonacci extension and cluster of algorithmic indicators. S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Intra-Day Trading Ranges:

I cannot provide clarity until post Fed speak (it will take a day or two) because the geo political events do not allow me to accurately provide algo lines, targets, or intra-day traidng quadrants. The machines shut-off. After Fed speak I will run the algorithmic calculations as trade resumes with the machines and provide the update the moment the calculations are charted (it takes some time to take my calculations and represent them on a 2D chart for our traders)

Alpha Algo Trading Lines:

To be updated post Fed.

Alpha Algo Trading Targets:

To be updated post Fed.

Intra Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

To be updated post Fed.

Time / Price Cycle Change Forecast:

To be updated post Fed.

 

Good luck with your trades and look forward to seeing you in the room!

Freedom the $SPY Algo

Article Topics: Freedom $SPY Algo, Fibonacci, Stocks, Wallstreet, Trading, Chatroom, Algorithms, $SPY, $ES_F, $SPXL, $SPXS


Wednesday Dec 14, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.

NOTICES:

IMPORTANT ALERT: We will try and do a better job not relying just on our broadcasting voice alerts in the room because there are folks that are on cell phones that can’t hear our audio alerts so we will do our best to type the details of a trade etc intraday in the room text box. It will be easier when our full time staff are in the room in the new year because a lot of that load will be taken of the shoulders of the traders. AND, if you get kicked off because you lose service on your phone and you sign back in and you lose track of conversation just tell us in the room and we’ll email you the text you missed while you were away from room (as long as we have time). And finally, we will have the text alerts going over next few days but they won’t be perfect until early Jan when our staff are with us.

NEW: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most.” If you are using our algorithms it is a must read.

ETN’s: $UWTI and $DWTI have been resurrected by CitiGroup! $UWT and $DWT http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

LOCKED POSTS: Starting mid December the Member Editions will become available (be unlocked to general public) within days of original publication. Portions that include algorithmic calls and charting that are still in play will not be published until they expire.

MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.

LIVE CHARTS: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.

PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.

24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24 hr crude oil trade room.

PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-over existing members will be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.

SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.

HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. If you need assistance email your questions to [email protected], message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.

FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:

Today will not be a detailed report as data has not changed much from the last two days so you can use those and today’s report, the live charting link provided and the trade room as your guide as needed.

Here is the new : Live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart Link

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ifp01Csh-MEMBER-ONLY-LIVE-OIL-CHART/

Price of crude trading in the range between the major support and resistance. Yesterdays market action had crude come off and HIT THE TARGET ZONE for the Tueday 4:30 time (not perfect but trade-able target for sure). Alpha algo targets are in site for Wednesday 10:30 AM now and Friday 1:00 PM (you will see them on chart).

Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 52.34 (507 AM ET Dec 14, 2016). Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge:

Crude Oil, Intra Day, Price, Chart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ifp01Csh-MEMBER-ONLY-LIVE-OIL-CHART/

Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:

Note: Be carfeul with the prices you see in the purple boxes on the right – they do not line up on chart for price action (they are for indicators).

For swings, trade between the yellow lines – they are your primary support and resistance. If price gets up over that upper yellow line at 54.49 the trade between that line as support for longs as long as it stays above and ratchet up your stops when it gets close to major resistance at 54.49, 55.17, 58.37 and 58.57. There are of course other support and resistance lines – but those are they big ones.

Also, pay attention to the upward trending channel – you can enter long and sell in between the channel yellow lines as it trends.

If price stays below the resistance at 54.49 then you trade the channel under that.

I have been waiting for an opportunity to take a long position at a yellow line support. I have been patient with that because the price of crude has been so aggresive I thought it would come off to those lower targets it hit yesterday and looks like it will hit today at 10:30 AM. So I will likely take a long position (not for sure) but if I do my stop will be fairly tight. Ideally you want a long position at supports way down at channel bottom. But we’ll see how it goes in the room.

If you have any questions email info@compoundtrading with direct questions for direct answers. Or ask in the trade room in a private message to the lead trader.

Diagonal Trend Lines:

Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.

There is one diagonal trendline above intra price and on two below (blue diagonal thin lines trending up). Look at the chart above – you will see where the diagonal trendlines are trending – WATCH THEM CLOSE. And remember you can come in to the chatroom to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this blog so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!

Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA

So here you have a conflict. On the 15 minute chart the price is trading under the 200 MA – which is a BEARISH SIGNAL intra-day. And below it is not on the 30 minute chart – the price is above. Watch this really close because price under the 200 MA on the 30 minute could send price down to lower targets on the chart for Friday. I marked on on the chart lower for Friday.

Crude, Oil, Chart, 200 MA

Price under 200 MA on 15 min chart bearish, above bullish. Crude algo intra work sheet 522 AM Dec 14 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

Crude, Oil, 200MA, 30 Min, Chart

Price under 200 MA on 30 min chart bearish, above bullish. Crude algo intra work sheet 522 AM Dec 14 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

Fibonacci Levels:

I have left the Fib lines on this chart from yesterday because things haven’t changed. However, you can see tighter trading Fib lines in the trading room at times when I’m locking in on a trade or if you subscribe to Trading View you can set them yourself real quick. Watch these lines for support and resistance. I don’t use them as tradtional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.

Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):

Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.

Advanced Charting:

Respect support and resistance lines:

If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines for now that is your highest probability trading. With the recent geo political mess it makes the algo targets difficult because crude is not trading in its “natural” state that occurs when the geo political banter stops.

Crude oil is still bullish – but there is a high probability that crude oil either visits the bottom of the channel yellow lines (diagonal) either this Friday or early next week – the Fed speak may have some bearing on this too so stay tuned!

Oil Time / Price Cycles:

Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator I use as a trader and EPIC’s record with them is near 100% – and that’s since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that I as a trader do not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at a termination of a time cycle if I am not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. I will however go really deep in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE if we are trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if we were trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and I knew there was a significant time cycle about to terminate I would go really heavy with a long. The price really spikes or drops hard when these important time cycles terminate. Fantastic plays.

The problem with time / price cycle terminations is that they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert – now we will do everything we can in future to send these on SMS but I want to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds weird but we’ve hit them just shy of 100%. And the oil political guys know the same thing and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THESE TIME CYCLE TERMINATIONS. So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of things)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, its where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle terminate – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day qudrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.

Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters. Right now there are no large significant time cycles identified – there are smaller ones that affect intra-day price but no significant ones identified.

If you review EPIC’s Twitter feed, blog posts and his story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these are.

Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):

To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.

The alpha algo trendlines are on the chart above.

Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):

I can report that the alpha algo primary probability target prediction from last week for Wednesday December 7 at 10:30 as a direct hit for that time / price cycle. And so did the Friday target at 1:00 PM as a direct hit! And yesterdays target was a hit! As I mentioned at the beginning of this post! Very trade-able calls – excellent!

So what is your most probable algo target for Wednesday at 10:30 EST and Friday 1:00 EST? Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable. Crude is currently trending toward a target (red circles on chart) Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).

The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel or whatever – also difficult to explain – WE ARE DOING A VERY DETAILED VIDEO ON THESE INDICATORS SOON THAT WILL SHOW IN MORE DETAIL.

The targets for this week are represented on the chart above and for the ones above you will need to follow the algo lines. Again, refer to the live charting I send you for this also or be in the trading room.

Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.

Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.

Also, please be sure to refer to the most recent post for your algo targets (there is an additional target as mentioned on the chart above now of course also).

Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

Well we just got to a point where we were in a trading range and the quadrants were getting locked in last week and the geo political interference caused the break-out in crude oil price. So we need to wait now for Wednesday targets to expire and maybe Friday – but we’re getting to the point where we’ll be able to get aggressive with them soon because I am convinced the geo political catalysts will settle down for a while.

Indicator Methods:

As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.

You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.

We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion:

That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.

Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.

EPIC the Oil Algo

 

Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets


Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades, Algorithm Charting Calls and Alerts for Tuesday Dec 13 – $OPGN, $BOSC, $AKAO $MDGS $NVCN $APRI $IDXG $UGAZ $UWT, $SPY, $VIX, $GLD, $GDX, $USDJPY, $DXY, $USOIL, $WTIC, $NG_F and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive.

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

Notices:

Notice: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most“. If you are using our algorithms or charting it is a must read.

Notice: We are testing fault settings for multiple trading rooms in 2017 (main room, momentum, options, swing, commodities, etc). We can have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen and announcements / broadcast – if you’re moved don’t sweat it – it won’t affect your experience.

Overview Perspective & Review of Chat Room, Algos, Trades and Alerts:

$SPY: The S&P 500 Algorithm is starting to fire on all cylinders too (which is good – its 5th in development process so its newer than others).

From my post market report yesterday,

Well, we have Fed talk Wednesday so yes the market may oompff a bit – but I expect it to run again until near Christmas or even closer to Preident Elect Donald Trump’s power transition.

I followed up with a warning in the member’s premarket with specific area of challenge in $SPY chart

227.80 looks fun. Caution overhead guys and gals. S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Put out a public tweet premarket about the specific area to watch with $SPY,

Price action on $SPY struggled with that area all day and remains a challenge in overnight:

Alert to Member Premarket Newsletter here that grey box above 227.80 daliy resistance challenge. S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

$SPY, Chart, Member, Alert

From Yesterday Post Market Report:

Still watching $VIX close – there was a small play there today I called to the second but didn’t execute. And Gold and Silver I’m still waiting on a long confirmation from our algos – they called this price target from months ago that we are in now so I’ll trust their math on my long entries. The $USD/JPY chart (and our $DXY algo) still says not broken – at resistance, but not broken so I’m waiting on $GC_F $GLD Gold. And crude oil, our algo was firing off an intra short early in market open but I didn’t take that and waited for long position at support which didn’t hit until market end so I’m watching over night – may get a buy trigger there Tuesday. I will be watching fervently $AKAO and sympathy plays tomorrow ($APRI, $OPGN) and any other momentum stocks.

Pretty much all of that played out… I alerted in our member premarket newsletter that $VIX would rise intra-day Tuesday and it did elevate while $SPY did – I actually alerted members to watch for that exact thing to happen. So our $VIX algorithm (last in line of the six) is firing on every cylinder now too!

Our Gold and Silver algorithms have said wait on a buy because of the 90% chance of Gold going to lower quadrant (you’d have to see our Gold algo Twitter to get the whole story – but the calls have been in place for months while many were bullish on Gold prior to election in Summer and Fall 2016)… anyway so Gold did deflate more as called – so yes, Gold and Silver algos hitting perfect too. These are exact price calls BTW. And the $DXY algo has been nailing it.

So that leaves our inaugural algo EPIC! Epic the Oil Algo calls price and time for every Tuesday at 4:30, Wednesday at 10:30 and Friday at 1:00 (and much more than those calls) the week prior in his newsletter oil reports the week prior so that traders can plan their trades etc. Anyway… the Tuesday at 4:30 price and time target zone was hit yet once again! He’s firing at 93.3% call win rate (all published in advance like all over our algos).

Here’s the target zone hit for EPIC – not a perfect hit like many as it was off by a few cents – but it did hit the target zone and was of course a very tread-able alert from the week prior to members considering his calls are for an exact time and an exact price for the next week. And the oher target hits he nailed this week are on the chart below also. He’s on fire to say the least.

EPIC, OIL, ALGO, $USOIL, $CL_F, $USO

Tues 430 PM Algo Target Predict from last week HIT! Not perfect but in target zone. Crude algo intra work sheet 1257 AM Dec 14 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Here’s the live chart on Trading View. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/BSJVKGTD-Tues-430PM-Target-Hit-Predict-from-last-wk-Crude-algo-intra/

Tues 430PM Target Hit! Predict from last wk! Crude algo intra by curtmelonopoly on TradingView.com

Traded $OPGN for a gain on 3 scalps (one I didn’t post in room – it can be busy at my command desk when you’re in and out trades so I call them out on audio alert broadcast too) and then gave it all back and then some on a stupid trade decision.

Also traded $BOSC for a gain late day – the scanners we I have are getting dialed in real precise – I was in that play real early and got out on the pop and then I think it faded before close.

Mathew has BEEN NAILING his trades and his alerts in the room have been awesome. He’ll be in the broadcasting daily here soon with me alerting his trades too and posting results and a pre market watch list on blog soon also.

Primary Lessons That May Help You With Your Trades:

Really messed up an $OPGN trade – held in a back wash because I thought I’d just hit it 2 or 3x on a bounce – but the bounce didn’t come. This is risky and unless you are using a larger account and you can have these go bad 50 % of the time I WOULD NOT RECOMMEND DOING IT.

My $BOSC trade was entirely enabled from having really tuned in scanners that I can alert the room with.

Again, Mathew would have a book full of lessons with his trades lately (lots for folks to learn there) so it will be nice to have him on audio broadcasting in the room and I look forward to his watchlists and blog posts.

Looking Forward:

It’s Fed day – WE HAVE A TONNE OF PLAYS READY ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FED MOVE SO I AM PUMPED. The algos have set us up perfect for the inflection point. Pumped.

Announcements in Trading Room:

08:54 am Curtis M : Watching: $AKAO $NVCN $APRI $IDXG $DSLV $VIX $UGAZ $UWT

09:09 am Curtis M : $AKAO $NVCN $APRI $IDXG $DSLV $VIX $UGAZ $UWT

We have groups split in different rooms. – we are fault testing rooms. If you are moved you will see same chart and announcements. We are preparing for official launch Jan 1 for multiple lead traders and media programs that start then.

11:15 am Curtis M : Back at 1145 EST From Lunch for afternoon session

03:41 pm Curtis M : Have a great night peeps!!! I\’m over and out. I\’ll leave room open till 4PM.

Stock Chat-room Trading Transcript:

Miscellaneous chatter is removed.

08:54 am manish kant : GM ALL
09:02 am David Z : morning manish!
09:03 am Curtis M : morning!
09:03 am manish kant : Good Morning David
09:03 am manish kant : Good Morning Curtis
09:14 am Curtis M : Active $XOP $AKAO $ARI $ETRM $IDXG $BAC $UCO $SPY $USO $NVCN
09:22 am John M : $AKAO and $NVCN my watches
09:22 am Curtis M : Oil holding up well we’ll see how it handles open
09:24 am Curtis M : At market open I will focus on momentum stocks and then move to OIL, SPY, GOLD, VIX, SILVER, NAT GAS
09:28 am Mathew Waterfall : Actually ended up getting our of my golden boy $APRI after close yesterday at 2.02. Back in this AM at 1.78 for another run with a close eye on it for a pullback
09:32 am Mathew Waterfall : Trimming some $WYNN here. Out of Dec30 100c’s at 1..21 from .7. This has more to run IMO but was heavy and want to take some profits
09:33 am Mathew Waterfall : Als out majority of my JBLU weekly 22’s at .85 from .35 entry yesterday
09:37 am Curtis M : $NVCN could be the big one today over 3.40
09:37 am Mathew Waterfall : Out half $LVS Dec30 60c’s at .66 from .53. I was looking for more here so keeping some but it hit my fib target so I am going to plan and trimming.
09:40 am David Z : I banked $OPGN a few times this morning watching for HOD break now
09:45 am Mathew Waterfall : I have a stop at 1.45 on $APRI while I go about other trades. Agrees that it doesn’t look very condtructive as of yet
09:46 am Curtis M : Long 2.49 3000 shares tight $OPGN
09:48 am Curtis M : Out $OPGN 2.69 3000
09:48 am Mathew Waterfall : Trailer on rest of $JBLU options for the rest of this run up. If anyone followed me into that I would say keep in tight as they are already ITM
09:49 am Curtis M : Long 2.80 $OPGN tight
09:50 am Curtis M : Out $OPGN 2.80 flat
09:56 am Curtis M : Long $OPGN 2.99 300
10:08 am Curtis M : Scaling $OPGN in 3000
10:08 am Mathew Waterfall : Out the rest of my $JBLU calls at 1.05 from .35. Could see more later in the week but I’ll take a 3 bagger any day
10:11 am Mathew Waterfall : Also keeping things a bit small and tight here into the trail end of this rally and the Fed.
10:21 am Curtis M : Out $OPGEN for loss –
10:23 am Curtis M : Out 2.16 fill
10:38 am Mathew Waterfall : Oxymoron if I have ever heard one right there lol
10:38 am Mathew Waterfall : But hey we all do it
10:39 am Curtis M : Disciplined Revenge Trader is my new handle lol
10:39 am Mathew Waterfall : lol
10:40 am Mathew Waterfall : Watching $CTXS for possible swing short. Name has continued to make incremental highs only to break down. I like it short here vs. 91 or so. Will watchand post if I enter
10:43 am Curtis M : So I’m going long oil at bottom near target if support holds because my other weekly targets are north of that price
10:43 am Curtis M : I am also going long $UGAZ sometime between now and Thur if it plays out right
10:44 am Mathew Waterfall : Short $CTXS 90.50 with 91 stop. Will add if it pick up speed to the downside here. This is a common stock swing play for me
10:44 am David Z : $UGAZ will run soon
10:45 am Curtis M : I am also looking for a long Gold play closer to 1133
10:45 am Curtis M : All 3 plays if they break its a 4 to 1 RR
10:47 am Mathew Waterfall : Rolled my $MGM Dec30 30c’s to 31’s for a .4 credit. Wanted to take some gains and get a higher strike as I was already ITM on those meaning they won’t have much of a delta and thus won’t accelerate as quickly as a higher strike should it keep moving north
10:56 am OilQ K : I’m in $TSLA its just sector rotation
10:56 am OilQ K : Looked at $MSFT but didn’t go
10:57 am Drew M : Curt Im surprised u didnt go tech you had it on watch
10:57 am Mathew Waterfall : Stop hit in $CTXS. Small loss will keep an eye on it for a future play. Market is way to strong to try to force a short
10:58 am Curtis M : At least it was small lol unlike someone else today – mind yo uit was a small position for my swing account
10:58 am Mathew Waterfall : In this game they can’t all be winners
10:59 am David Z : I never thought Curt lost serious watch him slice for a yr
11:00 am Curtis M : Scanning
11:00 am Curtis M : Oh I lose but not often do I let losses go
11:09 am Curtis M : Going to take an early lunch and then come back and be revenge trader
11:10 am Curtis M : Back at 1145 EST
11:10 am John M : good plan me 2
11:12 am OILK K : I like Gold here
11:27 am Curtis M : If I remember right last year this time the Fed raised $BAC tanked
11:31 am Sonny H : Long $INVE 1/3 here
11:31 am Sonny H : Looking at $IDN
11:33 am Curtis M : Theres that divergence in the $VIX I wrote about in the premarket newsletters last few days
11:33 am Curtis M : Back in 10
11:35 am Mathew Waterfall : Mostly babysitting and taking some gains today before the fed tomorrow. Market feels like it just wants to keep on keeping on here so it’s tough to try to take a contrarian view. Most size sweepers I am seeing are still bullish with some puts coming in materials AKS and X. NUGT also seeing some bearish flow looking for some more gold weakness
11:36 am Curtis M : Agree
11:42 am Jack D : I am taking profits on $MSFT I dont trust Fed talk
11:43 am Curtis M : Back
11:43 am Mathew Waterfall : $WYNN chewing through 94 would be great. I’m aiming for 61.8 fib at 96.35 if anyone is along for the ride and wants levels
11:48 am Curtis M : 98.20 would be PT on $WYNN
11:48 am Curtis M : Might take a while – u may need the 200 MA under it for that
11:49 am Mathew Waterfall : Agrred. I think it gets there, but I’m holding dec 23 100’s so I need it to move this week and get out.
11:50 am Mathew Waterfall : $MSFT also seeing more flow ehre out into the spring strikes.
11:52 am Curtis M : Possible
12:02 pm Curtis M : Casinos coming here I think
12:06 pm Curtis M : $WYNN looks good
12:06 pm Mathew Waterfall : Sold some $WYNN Dec23 102c’s against my 100’s that I have left. This is a good way to lock in some gains. Either they both keep going up, or if $WYNN pulls back i cover the short calls for a gain
12:07 pm Mathew Waterfall : Yes it does limit your gains to the upside should WYNN go to 102+ by expiration, but it also limits potential losses
12:08 pm Curtis M : Makes sense
12:08 pm Mathew Waterfall : I had my eye on this move earlier and was waiting on the 102’s to juice a bit before I sold them
12:14 pm Curtis M : $INVE looks like its working
12:16 pm Curtis M : History
12:17 pm Curtis M : $VIX is holding too
12:20 pm Curtis M : $TKAI on scanner for anyone interested
12:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : That stock has been on my watchlist ever sense I played it from the mid .80’s. It seems to run up into the 1.10-1.20 level then sell off every week or two
12:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : $TKAI that is
12:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : Watching $AQXP for a swing as well
12:27 pm Mathew Waterfall : $CLF Jan20 12c’s. This had a huge run, now pulling back a bit. X is seeing some nice in flows late in the day. $CLF could see a bit more downside to the 78.6 at 8.82 but this is a buy and forget play for me
12:27 pm Mathew Waterfall : Bought those $CLF Jan20 12c’s @.2
12:27 pm Mathew Waterfall : Starter and will add against 8.82 if it gets there
12:28 pm MarketMaven M : $X bottomed imo
12:32 pm Mathew Waterfall : We’ll see with $X. I threw an extension from the yearly low to previous yearly high at 27.64 and the 161.8 gets us to 40.92 which wouldn’t be out of the question by the end of the year. It has more than double though in the last 45 days so it’s come a long way
12:37 pm Curtis M : quiet scanners
12:39 pm Mathew Waterfall : I am most likely going to sit on my hands for the rst of the day. Most set ups I see feel like I’m forcing trades, and I tend to lose money when I do that
12:39 pm Curtis M : I need 1 revenge trade just 1
12:42 pm Curtis M : Oil on the move
12:43 pm Mathew Waterfall : Some of those small caps could squeezse if oil cooperates. $ORIG and $SDRL both pulling back. $ATW, $TDW, $EPE etc all strong
01:05 pm Curtis M : Crude pushing
01:16 pm Mathew Waterfall : Hate chasing but like the look of $AKS here. Got over the 10 day on the daily. In some Dec23 11c’s @.23. Starting small here like CLF will add more if it gets going. Short timeline so if it doesn’t accelerate these go south
01:20 pm Mathew Waterfall : Jesus $SPY! Can’t spot won’t stop
01:22 pm Curtis M : Implied volatllty hanging in there
01:23 pm Curtis M : I had a feeling that was going to happen here
01:24 pm Greg L : I profited off that call curt!!! u should have come
01:24 pm Mathew Waterfall : I think the $VIX goes up a bit or at least hangs around 13. There should be a lot of protection being bought into the end of the year and early 2017 which would keep that high
01:24 pm Curtis M : Good stuff Greg!
01:24 pm Mathew Waterfall : I don’t like playing the $VIX directly though more as a tool to tell me how to play other things
01:26 pm Curtis M : Pit close 1 hour
01:26 pm Curtis M : Rising wedge in crude
01:34 pm Curtis M : My scanners havent been this quiet in months
01:36 pm Carol B : Man you called that one clean Curtis $VIX and $SPY
01:44 pm Curtis M : $GALE on the move
01:48 pm Cara R : Going long som3 $XLV starter
01:48 pm Mathew Waterfall : $FRO popped up on my scanns. Cup/handle look on 20 day. Swing against LOD looks decent. Again it feels like I’m reaching here just looking for something to trade
01:49 pm Curtis M : One good kill for me pls
01:58 pm Curtis M : Long $BOSC starter scaling 3000
01:59 pm Curtis M : 2.164 avg
02:00 pm Curtis M : Scaling 3000 more
02:04 pm Curtis M : Sorry a little internet spike or something there
02:04 pm Curtis M : We might squeeze em here
02:07 pm Curtis M : I feel there pain I really do
02:13 pm Curtis M : Chipping out small profit
02:13 pm Curtis M : Likely renter
02:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : $AKAO is just crazy. Even after their offering news post market, this thing is still running. Went right by my 14 target and looks like it might se 16’s today
02:26 pm Curtis M : If CL sell off here we may get a good buy down at support
02:36 pm John M : Odd. $AKAO
02:39 pm Curtis M : Anybody that went long $AKAO on the 20 has won so far
02:43 pm Mathew Waterfall : $CRBP jiggy. Hit for a small starter against 7.75 or so. Plan to add more on retest if we see a pullback
02:44 pm Drew M : $AKAO may never stop.
02:51 pm Curtis M : This is resistance on $SPY 227.80 227.96 – it pops and it could be gone for a while.
02:57 pm Mathew Waterfall : Small add $CRBP at 8.07. Tight stop on this at 8.75. Risky play as these things will gap overnight so keeping it small for a swing
03:07 pm Curtis M : Leaderboard $USEG 69% $GLF 25% $AKAO 21% $INVE 16% $DTRM 14%
03:11 pm Greg L : Laughing my ass off from your post this morning about 227.80 area being interesting on Twitter and guess where weve stalled. Spooky.
03:11 pm Curtis M : lol
03:18 pm Mathew Waterfall : Well I guess it’s an early day today. Holding into the fed as tomorrow morning should also be fairly calm. Will hang out but unlikely to do much. Have a good night all
03:19 pm Curtis M : yup
03:20 pm Curtis M : Thanks for the calls Mathew!
03:20 pm OilQ K : Ya Mat!
03:20 pm Mathew Waterfall : Hope some people followed along on the casinos and $JBLU which killed it. If not, there will be more that’s for sure
03:21 pm Curtis M : I know for sure 3 did cause they DM’s me:)
03:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : Perfect. Love helping other people make $$$
03:21 pm Jack D : Thanks Mathew!
03:28 pm Cara R : Yes Thank you guys
03:48 pm Mathew Waterfall : $ADMP squeeze into the close.
03:50 pm Mathew Waterfall : Nice volume there as well. Somehow I’m holding a few shares here
03:51 pm John M : good action
03:51 pm Mathew Waterfall : I got lucky. Bought when it looked liek a breakout over $3 about amonth ago and never hit my stop. Small position but nice to finally get in the black lol. Better to be lucky than good sometimes
03:51 pm Curtis M : lol
04:00 pm Curtis M : Good night all.

You can follow along with public calls our algorithms post on Twitter here:

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

 

Article Topics: Compound Trading, Trading Lessons, Results, Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Investing, Chat Room, Trading Results, $OPGN, $BOSC, $AKAO $MDGS $NVCN $APRI $IDXG $UGAZ $UWT, $SPY, $VIX, $GLD, $GDX, $USDJPY, $DXY, $USOIL, $WTIC, $NG_F


My Stock Trading Plan for Tuesday Dec 13, 2016 in Chatroom. $NVCN, $RGSE, $ORIG, $SDRL, $OPHT, $UWT, $AKAO, $APRI, $OPGN, $NG_F, $SILVER, $SLV, $SL_F, $VIX, $UVXY $TVIX, $USOIL, $WTI, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $USD/JPY, $SPY … more.

Welcome to the Tuesday morning Wall Street trading day session!

Important Notices:

Fed speak Wed 2:00 PM EST.

$UWTI $DWTI have been resurrected as $UWT and $DWT – this is a massive thing for my trading to say the least. http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

Oil meetings happened and we have a new break out!

Current Holds:

$CBMX, $JUNO

Market Outlook:

Watch out for the upcoming Fed road bumps – stay nimble.

Watching $AKAO from yesterday’s premarket watchlist and trades executed yesterday – $AKAO Announces Positive Results in Phase 3 cUTI and CRE Clinical Trials of Plazomicin and possible sympathy plays $APRI $OPGN.

Dips on $GOLD $GLD are NOT being bought now vs.selling the rips (so this by default plays in to $SILVER). The Trump train / reflation train. Watching $USD/JPY. Hoping we can get an inflection here to get in to a long position and start scaling in (one final dump in it and $SPY etc but likely to early yet). $USD/JPY is in a resistance area but the chart is far from broken so be careful Gold bulls!

$NATGAS $NG_F has come off some from important resistance and is NOW AT AN IMPORTANT SUPPORT – ON WATCH HERE!!! See chart below.

$SPY has continued its upward trend. Watching markets for a pull back (as noted previous) sometime near or just after Christmas (it seems we have a Santa Claus rally etc). Very likely markets take a rest around Fed speak Wed 2:00 PM EST.

$VIX – volatility I called almost to the minute yesterday and $VIX hould get some spiking today and Wednesday. So I am watching close $TVIX $UVXY.

Crude Oil is trading upward in its trading range overnight – if this continues there is a high probability small cap equites pop Tuesday morning!!!

And that brings me to momo stocks and rotation therein, looks like we continue with huge opportunities there also!

If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts and at minimum of our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. And you will notice quickly that they have been undeniably accurate on many time-rames (intra-day and months out) so I myself have learned to respect their math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80% in my trading – all publicly posted live trades). A quick hour of review at most will bring you  up to date.

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk – so often I avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks later in the day after the wash-out looking for a snap-back. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter ans Stocktwits if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $NVCN $RGSE $APR $ORIG $SDRL $OPHT $UWT $NE $SBGL $UCO $CHK $DB $LVS $SSL $SHPG $ESV I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $AKAO (momentum Monday) and sympathy plays $APRI $OPGN, $HMY (chart), $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades: $CE $CIB $ERF $UN $FRT $HR $MOH $CNC $BVN $HCP $SEAS $CPT $ABTX $CBS $MAA $EMR  I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades: $MPW $SNH $HCN $PPG $ALXN $BMS $BWLD $SWK $OKE $LFUS $DVA $GNC $STC $WAC $GRFS $CBL $KRG $BRX $AKR $GTLS $MRO $ECPG $DEI $DDR I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Outlook: Hasn’t stopped – but the Fed is coming so you want to watch. As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

My Trading Plan: Right now I am trading $XIV instead of $SPXL or $SPXS. I do this because we are in a trend of crushed volatility. Now, when that changes and volatility starts to rise again (even if $SPY is rising at the same time) then I’ll flip over to trading $SPXL and $SPXS instead of $XIV.

227.80 looks fun. Caution overhead guys and gals. S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

S&P 500 $SPY, $ES_F, $SPXL, $SPXS

227.80 looks fun. S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Outlook: Looking for possible record lows before Christmas.

There was interesting action late Friday while $SPY was rising in $VIX and $XIV – ON HGH WATCH NOW.

Watch for volatility to rise on a trend – even if $SPY is still rising – volatility is a great indicator for what’s around the corner.

I WOULD PREPARE FOR A POP IN VOLATILITY BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON and even perhaps in to next week Tuesday.

CNN Fear and Greed Index: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

Got $VIX? $UVXY $TVIX $XIV

$VIX, Volatility Index, Chart

Got $VIX $UVXY $TVIX $XIV

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

Pre previous: Inflection point. No clear direction. $USD/JPY not backing off yet. Our $DXY algo had 100.50 as a PT so I’m watching. Lots of fundamentals at work here and geo.

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

My Trading Plan for Gold: I am waiting for the trend reversal. We are very close to the price target at the bottom of that quadrant at 1133.00 ish. The initial wide frame target Rosie the algo nailed but there has been a wait and see for a reversal because of one more possible leg down. Getting very close IMO.

I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Getting closer to 1133.00 our algo had 90% probability on. Gold algo intra work sheet 559 AM Dec 13 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

Gold, Algorithm, Chart

Getting closer to 1133.00 our algo had 90% probability on. Gold algo intra work sheet 559 AM Dec 13 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

Silver $SI_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

My Plan for Trading Silver:

Per previous;

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Silver fighting with resistance. It could pop to 200 MA on 1 week. Possible. $SI_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock).

Chart, 200 MA, Silver, $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

Silver fighting with resistance. It could pop to 200 MA on 1 week. Possible. $SI_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

The Oil break-out came so I am looking at small cap oil per list below. I am watching the support and resistance lines close – especially the yellow ones in the chart.

Outlook: Crude oil is trading within and respecting the main support and resistance areas of its upward channel. I am trading the support and resistance margins – I will consider shortside at the top of the channel or resistance and long at the bottom of the channel. I did take a trade Monday that was riskier because it was midrange and at a weak support but I had the algo on my side – mapped it out in advance – crude followed the plan so I took the trade in $UCO and it worked. Small scalp.

At the end of Monday the price was left right at a support level (a fibonacci support just above a trendline support) – I was going to take a long there at end of day but decided not to. I notice now in overnight trading it did hit support and has got some uplift – so I will monitor trade on Tuesday.

Trading Plan: Oil equities: Small cap oil may get some pop first thing Tuesday morning if crude is still trading in its upward channel. Positions in $UCO would be tough here.

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

crude, oil, chart, $USOIL, $WTI

Trading in upward channel respecting support and resistance. Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 513 AM Dec 13 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo

Natural Gas $NG_F $NATGAS ($UGAZ, $DGAZ):

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted.

Natural Gas hit heavy resistance, came off, now at a Fibonacci support. $NG_F $UGAZ $DGAZ

ON WATCH!!! This could get a considerable pop in to late Wednesday and even as far as in to late Monday next week is possible!!!

Natural Gas, $UGAZ, $DGAZ, $NG_F

Natural Gas hit heavy resistance, came off, now at a Fibonacci support. $NG_F $UGAZ $DGAZ

Study:

Now that a number of blog posts are being unlocked, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for traders to review them (especially new traders).

If you are trading relying on our charting or algorithms as trade indicators you should read this recent article, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different.”

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, Small Cap Oil, $AKAO, $APRI, $OPGN, $DVAX, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS, $DWT, $UWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY


Tuesday Dec 13, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.

IMPORTANT NOTICES:

NEW: The is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most.” If you are using our algorithms it is a must read.

ETN’s: $UWTI and $DWTI have been resurected by CitiGroup! $UWT and $DWT http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

LOCKED POSTS: Starting mid December the Member Editions will become available (be unlocked to general public) within days of original publication. Portions that include algorithmic calls and charting that are still in play will not be published until they expire.

MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.

LIVE CHARTS: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.

PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.

24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24 hr crude oil trade room.

PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-over existing members will be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.

SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.

HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. If you need assistance email your questions to [email protected], message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.

FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:

Today will not be a detailed report as data has not changed much from yesterday so you can use yesterday’s report, today’s report, the live charting link provided and the trade room as your guide as needed.

Here is the new : Live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart

Price of crude trading in the range between the major support and resistance. Yesterdays market action had crude come off a bit because the Sunday night trade had it bid up to resistance. Crude did bounce off a Fibonacci support level and is trending up now intra-day. Alpha algo targets are in site for Tuesday 4:30 and Wednesday 10:30 AM.

Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 53.24 (704 AM ET Dec 13, 2016). Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge:

Crude Oil, Intra-day, Chart

Crude Oil, Chart

Intra day price 53.24 Crude algo intra work sheet 704 AM Dec 13 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:

For swings, trade between the yellow lines – they are your primary support and resistance. If price gets up over that upper yellow line at 54.49 the trade between that line as support for longs as long as it stays above and ratchet up your stops when it gets close to major resistance at 54.49, 55.17, 58.37 and 58.57. There are of course other support and resistance lines – but those are they big ones.

Also, pay attention to the upward trending channel – you can enter long and sell in between the channel yellow lines as it trends.

If price stays below the resistance at 54.49 then you trade the channel under that.

If you have any questions email info@compoundtrading with direct questions for direct answers. Or ask in the trade room in a private message to the lead trader.

Diagonal Trend Lines:

Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.

There is one diagonal trendline above intra price and one below – crude is trading right in between them right now. Look at the chart above – you will see where the diagonal trendlines are trending – WATCH THEM CLOSE. And remember you can come in to the chatroom to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this blog so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!

Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA

Crude using 100 MA on 30 as support – watch this today! Crude algo intra work sheet 748 AM Dec 13 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Blue line on chart below is the 100 MA on the 30 minute chart.

Crude oil, 100 MA, Chart

Crude using 100 MA on 30 as support – watch this today! Crude algo intra work sheet 748 AM Dec 13 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Fibonacci Levels:

Fibonacci levels are included on this chart and price did bounce off a Fib line yesterday so watch these close today – price is trading technically here! t is the green line on the chart at bottom of price action in oil yesterday.

crude, oil, chart, $USOIL, $WTI

Trading in upward channel respecting support and resistance. Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 513 AM Dec 13 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo

Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):

Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.

Advanced Charting:

Respect support and resistance lines:

If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines for now that is your highest probability trading. With the recent geo political mess it makes the algo targets difficult because crude is not trading in its “natural” state that occurs when the geo political banter stops.

Crude oil is still bullish – don’t listen to the noise. If this changes I will let you know. In the meantime trade the range or snipe knowing your lines and targets.

Oil Time / Price Cycles:

Well, we know from my celebration at the outset of this article that we hit the time / price cycle from last week…. IF $USOIL IS TRADING ABOVE 51.38 THERE IS A REALLY IMPORTANT TIME / PRICE CYCLE EXPIRING AT LATEST DEC 13 at 4:00 AM. AT LATEST. This means 98.5% of the time there will be a significant uptrend or downward trend established. WATCH VERY CLOSE. If you review my Twitter feed you will see that I AM ALWAYS RIGHT ABOUT THESE and the price normally drastically moves well before the termination of the time price cycle. IF PRICE IS TRADING UNDER 51.38 YOU CAN DISREGARD THIS NOTICE.

The time price cycle terminations are use-less to give you right now because the price of crude is right in between a tonne of price decisions – and depending on where price trades intra-day will depend on when the time / cycle terminates. SO WHAT YOU NEED TO DO IS COME IN TO THE ROOM AND ASK ME TO GIVE YOU THE CURRENT TIME / PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS BASED ON CURRENT PRICE AND I WILL. Until then the time cycle terminations are o Dec 12 at 5PMl Dec 13 12 AM, Dec 13 1:00 AM, Dec 14 1 AM, Dec 19 6 AM but with-out knowing where price is going to be during those cycles I can’t tell you right now if they are in play. So ask as needed intra-day until the price of crude finds its range.

Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):

To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.

The alpha algo trendlines are on the chart above.

Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):

I can report that the alpha algo primary probability target prediction from last week for Wednesday December 7 at 10:30 as a direct hit for that time / price cycle. And so did the Friday target at 1:00 PM as a direct hit! As I mentioned at the beginning of this post! Very trade-able calls – excellent!

So what is your most probable algo target for Tuesday at 4:30 EST and Wed 10:30 EST? Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable. Crude is currently trending toward a target to the upside (red circles on chart) Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so.

The targets for this week are represented on the chart above and for the ones above you will need to follow the algo lines. Again, refer to the live charting I send you for this also or be in the trading room.

Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.

Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.

Also, please be sure to refer to the most recent post for your algo targets (there is an additional target as mentioned on the chart above now of course also).

Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

Well we just got to a point where we were in a trading range and the quadrants were getting locked in last week and the geo political interference caused the break-out in crude oil price. So we need to wait now for two things; the price of crude to establish a trading range and for at least Tuesday and Wednesday targets to be established. Here again, watch for updates.

Indicator Methods:

As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.

You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.

We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion:

That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.

Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.

EPIC the Oil Algo

Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets


Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades, Algorithm Charting Calls and Alerts for Monday Dec 12 – $AKAO, $APRI, $OPGN, $UCO, $DUST, $WMT, $XIV, $GOLD, $USDJPY, $USOIL, $SPY, $WTIC, $NATGAS, $VIX, $SILVER, and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive.

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

Notice: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most.” If you are using our algorithms or charting it is a must read.

Notice: We are testing fault settings for multiple trading rooms in 2017. We have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen – if you’re moved don’t sweat it – it won’t affect your experience.

 

Primary Lessons That May Help Your Trades:

I should have got on the $AKAO train earlier in the day – it was on my watchlist as the number one watch but I got too distracted with a ntra-day slump in the S&P. Getting on the train earlier likely would have netted me at least ten times because I would have scaled in 1000 shares on the first, 3000 then 5000 and scaled out of 9000 shares on the way up. So it was an ideal news play that I just didn’t focus on – part of the challenge in setting up our room service too – we had a technical site host issue RIGHT WHEN THE MARKET WAS ABOUT TO OPEN ugh.

Looking Forward:

Well, we have Fed talk Wednesday so yes the market may oompff a bit – but I expect it to run again until near Christmas or even closer to Preident Elect Donald Trump’s power transition. Still watching $VIX close – there was a small play there today I called to the second but didn’t execute. And Gold and Silver I’m still waiting on a long confirmation from our algos – they called this price target from months ago that we are in now so I’ll trust their math on my long entries. The $USD/JPY chart (and our $DXY algo) still says not broken – at resistance, but not broken so I’m waiting on $GC_F $GLD Gold. And crude oil, our algo was firing off an intra short early in market open but I didn’t take that and waited for long position at support which didn’t hit until market end so I’m watching over night – may get a buy trigger there Tuesday. I will be watching fervently $AKAO and sympathy plays tomorrow ($APRI, $OPGN) and any other momentum stocks.

Announcements in Trading Room:

08:52 am Curtis M : (1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $AKAO, $WTI, $VNR, $SGY, $REXX $MTL $CIE $ORIG $SDRL $ATW $DNR $PACD $AVXL $UWT $DGAZ $EPE $MEMP I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $HMY (chart), $AKAO Announces Positive Results in Phase 3 cUTI and CRE Clinical Trials of Plazomicin, $DVAX upgrade to “buy” by Cowen and $45 PT, $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo / Charting Watch-List: Gold $GLD $GC_F, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SL_V ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S &P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades: $ABB $AEG $MGIC $AIG $BCR $CXW $WEB $HBI $PES $LULU $BRO $TRV $AMD $AUY $TAHO $TCP $COO $COP $UBS $T $EGHT $RNG $NVR $REGN $HBI $HOLX $DGX $FSV $GRA $FMC $TSO I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades: $CF $ALGT $PHG $GFI $CDNS $CMC $OPHT $IRET $MCC $KRG $EOG $MOS $DEPO $TTC $PEI $FOXA $GFI $EZPW $FLS $SYNA $WBMD $UBSH $FINL $CVS $CMC $WOR $SGEN $CERC $FUL $TMO $HUN $CC I will update before market open or refer to chat room n

09:18 am Curtis M : Website is down. Host is reparing their issue. Premarket newsletter emailed to everyone.

Stock Chat-room Trading Transcript:

Miscellaneous chatter is removed.

09:04 am Curtis M : Movers: $AKAO, $ORIG, $AKRX, $AREX, $CSOD, $MCEP, $IMMU, $CRZO, $REGN, $USLV
09:11 am Gurpreet Singh : Good morning all
09:11 am Curtis M : S&P -0.04%.10-yr -0.07%.Euro +0.51% vs. dollar.Crude +3.69% to $53.41.Gold -0.06% to $1,161.40.
09:21 am Curtis M : Sartaj emailing morning newsletter right now.
09:24 am Curtis M : Gappers- $AKAO $BCEI $SGY $WTI $ORIG $VNR $PACD $MTL $SDRL $LEI $TDW $NADL $CIE $NOG $AREX $CRC $AKRX $EPE $SDLP
09:24 am Curtis M : Watching oil for pull back as close to yellow line as possible
09:30 am Curtis M : watching gappers at open
09:33 am Curtis M : Wating for pull back in oil before I take a long in small cap oil
09:34 am Mathew Waterfall : Closing out $XOM calls. here. Waiting for $SDRL calls to juice and will clsoe a portion of those as well
09:35 am Mathew Waterfall : Out some of the Dec16 4.5c’s at .35 from .1
09:38 am Mathew Waterfall : Out $SN Jan17 10c’s at .85 from .3. clearing the board a bit here
09:40 am Curtis M : Nice
09:41 am Curtis M : Leaderboard $AKAO 56% BCEI 34% $VNR 27% $ORIG 24% $NADL 23%$ PACD 19%
09:48 am Mathew Waterfall : Ask side to unload more SDRL Dec23 4.5’s at .45 from .15. I won’t chase for a fill on these
09:52 am Curtis M : $USDJPY important area IMO – looking at a snipe in miner’s if it stays under 100 MA on 15 possibly
09:58 am Curtis M : This looks like the intra battle for $USDJPY
09:58 am Curtis M : Also watching $VIX close because it should get a pop soon – within a few days
09:59 am Curtis M : This $SPY buying is gong to rest for a while soon IMO – the books are almost filled with quotas
10:00 am Curtis M : Wed mornng at latest IMO it rests
10:02 am Mathew Waterfall : Crazy open here, giving most of my positions a chance to ven out a bit. Still holding the casinos and will do so through tomorrow unless we get a big pop there for some reason
10:02 am Mathew Waterfall : *even out. Sorry on backup keyboard this AM
10:03 am Curtis M : $AKAO may be a decent short here IMO
10:06 am Curtis M : A short in $AKAO at 9.10 perfect seup
10:06 am Curtis M : Lol theres some test
10:11 am Mathew Waterfall : In some TZA dec23c’s at .34 as a hedge and play for a pullback. Small position to trade agaist witl good r/r if things juice
10:16 am GSCT . : TVIX nice move
10:20 am Curtis M : Watching $NADL for a pop
10:24 am Curtis M : Gold bugs are buying quick on $USDJPY weakness
10:26 am Mathew Waterfall : Twtr weekly puts look actractive here as wel. Watching those
10:27 am Mathew Waterfall : In some 18p’s at .06 for a lotto. Hero or zero play
10:51 am Curtis M : Retail should get a good pop here soon IMO – may take a few days… like Thur ish but between now and then per watchlist
10:51 am GSCT . : $AKAO new HOD
10:57 am Curtis M : $AKAO Could go a long ways
11:03 am GSCT . : No audio commentary today?
11:11 am Curtis M : Looking at possible Long in $DUST if $USD/JPY gets on the move and $NADL
11:18 am manish kant : greetings all
11:24 am Curtis M : Scaling in 1000 shares $DUST
11:26 am Curtis M : Welcome Manish
11:26 am manish kant : Thanks Curtis
11:27 am Curtis M : Looks like my fills will avg 53.45 on $DUST
11:30 am Curtis M : $GLF up 37% now
11:31 am Sammy T : $ORIG 20% also
11:33 am Curtis M : Leader board $AKAO $GLF $EVEP $ORIG $MTL
11:33 am manish kant : orig
11:40 am Dani M : Oil starting to look better
11:42 am Curtis M : Still defending $NADL 200 MA
11:49 am Curtis M : Long $UCO 1000 11.763 avg scale to 5000 with ex[ectation there may be one more leg down
11:50 am Mathew Waterfall : $DUST not looking so hot for the heads up
11:53 am Curtis M : Ya $DUST will be a swing past Fed
11:53 am Curtis M : My swings I look at 1000 3000 5000 share entries for example – scale on swings at supports / resistance
11:54 am Curtis M : Kiinda like $UCO right now I expect a leg down
11:54 am Curtis M : $DUST $SPY $OIL not done yet… they all gotta meet Santa lol
11:55 am Mathew Waterfall : Let’s hope so. I have some $DUST calls that need a bit of help here
11:58 am Curtis M : Oh ya $DUST has at least one more round – may be a few days tho
11:59 am Curtis M : I’m prepared for 3 – 4 weeks on that position $DUST
12:05 pm Shawn B : I like $SPY long here too soon – waiting and watching
12:09 pm Larry B : Bulls come soon – rally is on until Obama gone bye bye
12:10 pm Larry B : $VIX good call Curt
12:11 pm Curtis M : Back in 30 looks calm
12:14 pm Michael P : oil calls fresh too ha ha
12:14 pm Michael P : Mathew you in long Wallmart? Did Curt??
12:15 pm Curtis M : No I didn’t I’m in oil long and dust Michael – $Dust I might have some pain
12:15 pm Curtis M : ok bye back soon
12:16 pm Mathew Waterfall : Nope, no $WMT for me
12:19 pm Mathew Waterfall : That $WMT chart looks like it’s rangebound between fibs and could see some checkback to a quick trendline that I drew in from the yealry lows. If it can clear and firm above 71.65 then high of year would be in play
12:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : Quick 30 second chart of $WMT http://tos.mx/ziGL6s

There was a technical data glitch at this point in the log (data centre truncated log) so here forward for rest of day it is only Curtis’ comments (which is unfortunate because the afternoon session was very active):

12:32 Crude going according to plan

12:41 I like the $WMT play but yes not much upside – slow move to profit

12:46 Fed Wed 2:00 PM FYI

12:54 Looks like a market pauce is possible until after Fed Speak

12:54 $USD/JPY

1:10 Selling my $UCO here for small gain – going to see what this afternoon brings – out 11.83

1:10 Hold $DUST though until at least next Tuesday 8 days min (unless I can get out earlier)

1:12 Thinking with oil we may test that lower support (yellow arrow) market is ooomfedish

1:15 I am in $STUDY until scanners hit

1:22 I may hit $AKAO on every wash-out here – this is carzy price action

1:27 $AKAO 1000 starter at 10.47 per share – tight

1:32 Out $AKAO 10.94 per share

1:34 Watching $AKAO 10.75 pull-back area

1:35 Likely 10.50 pull-back more likely

1:38 Long 1000 shares $AKAO 10.76

1:39 Out 11.025 per share $AKIO

1:43 Long $AKAO 11.46 1000 shares

1:46 Out $AKAO 11.62 1000 shares

2:11 $OPGN and $APRI could get action off $AKAO

2:13 All three are likely good candidates for morning momentum stocks tomorrow also.

2:30 Long $AKAO 12.76 1000 shares

2:52 Out 12.92 sold 1000 shares $AKAO

3:23 Out $DUST shares chipped out in three pieces aberage 53.70

3:31 $AKAO chart still not broke – holding resistance area still.

3:34 Here we go again.

3:49 $APRI should run momo tomorrow morning.

 

Article Topics: Compound Trading, Trading Lessons, Results, Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Investing, Chat Room, Trading Results, $AKAO, $APRI, $OPGN, $UCO, $DUST, $WMT, $XIV, $ES_F, $SLV, $SILVER, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $USDJPY, $DXY, $USOIL, $WTIC, $NATGAS, $NG_F, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $VIX