Blog - Page 177 of 185 - Compound Trading

Dec 2016

My Stock Trading Plan for Monday Dec 12, 2016 in Chatroom. Oil, Small cap oil, Tech, Retail, $SDRL, $AKAO, $DVAX, $HMY, $GOLD, $GLD, Miners, $GDX, $SILVER, $SLV, $USOIL, $WTI, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $VIX, $NATGAS … more.

Welcome to the Monday Wall Street trading day session!

Important Notices:

$UWTI $DWTI have been resurrected as $UWT and $DWT – this is a massive thing for my trading to say the least. http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

Oil meetings happened and we have a new break out!

Current Holds:

$CBMX, $JUNO

Market Outlook:

Watch out for the upcoming Fed road bumps – stay nimble.

Small cap oil could go nuts – see list of names below. $SDRL on high alert. $USOIL $WTI is dialed in with EPIC the Oil Algo perfect and hit EPICs targets for last Wednesday and Friday and the algo lines and the time / price cycles (if you subscribe to EPIC’s newsletter be sure to check the report this morning!). Also, machines have been on since mid November break-out (so this makes trading oil related easier for me).

$AKAO Announces Positive Results in Phase 3 cUTI and CRE Clinical Trials of Plazomicin, $DVAX upgrade to “buy” by Cowen and $45 PT.

Dips on $GOLD $GLD are NOT being bought now vs.selling the rips (so this by default plays in to $SILVER). The Trump train / reflation train. Watching $USD/JPY.

$NATGAS $NG_F has come off some from important resistance I alerted – watching close.

$SPY has continued its upward trend. Watching markets for a pull back (as noted previous) sometime near or just after Christmas (it seems we have a Santa Claus rally).

And that brings me to momo stocks and rotation therein, looks like a fun week here setting up again. So these remain on high watch.

I am also watching Tech and Retail.

$HMY on watch – getting jiggy. $X and $CHK action.

There is so much going on it is best reviewed as market opens in the trading room today.

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk – so often I avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks later in the day after the wash-out looking for a snap-back. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $AKAO, $WTI, $VNR, $SGY, $REXX $MTL $CIE $ORIG $SDRL $ATW $DNR $PACD $AVXL $UWT $DGAZ $EPE $MEMP I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $HMY (chart), $AKAO Announces Positive Results in Phase 3 cUTI and CRE Clinical Trials of Plazomicin, $DVAX upgrade to “buy” by Cowen and $45 PT, $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades: $ABB $AEG $MGIC $AIG $BCR $CXW $WEB $HBI $PES $LULU $BRO $TRV $AMD $AUY $TAHO $TCP $COO $COP $UBS $T $EGHT $RNG $NVR $REGN $HBI $HOLX $DGX $FSV $GRA $FMC $TSO I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades: $CF $ALGT $PHG $GFI $CDNS $CMC $OPHT $IRET $MCC $KRG $EOG $MOS $DEPO $TTC $PEI $FOXA $GFI $EZPW $FLS $SYNA $WBMD $UBSH $FINL $CVS $CMC $WOR $SGEN $CERC $FUL $TMO $HUN $CC I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Outlook: Hasn’t stopped – but the Fed is coming so you want to watch. As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

My Trading Plan: Right now I am trading $XIV instead of $SPXL or $SPXS. I do this because we are in a trend of crushed volatility. Now, when that changes and volatility starts to rise again (even if $SPY is rising at the same time) then I’ll flip over to trading $SPXL and $SPXS instead of $XIV.

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Outlook: Looking for possible record lows before Christmas.

There was interesting action late Friday while $SPY was rising in $VIX and $XIV – ON HGH WATCH NOW.

Watch for volatility to rise on a trend – even if $SPY is still rising – volatility is a great indicator for what’s around the corner.

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

Resistance in $USD/JPY starts at 115.95 and you can expect considerable turbulence if it continues uptrend in that region. BUT DON’T BE FOOLED BY THE BEARS – this chart is far from broken yet. But it is in to resistance so this could be inflection point. And being that Gold is very near our target watch close.

Pre previous: Inflection point. No clear direction. $USD/JPY not backing off yet. Our $DXY algo had 100.50 as a PT so I’m watching. Lots of fundamentals at work here and geo.

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

$USD/JPY Per above.

My Trading Plan for Gold: I am waiting for the trend reversal. We are very close to the price target at the bottom of that quadrant at 1133.00 ish. The initial wide frame target Rosie the algo nailed but there has been a wait and see for a reversal because of one more possible leg down. Getting very close IMO.

Waiting for a long trade confirmation in Gold.

I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Silver $SL_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

My Plan for Trading Silver:

Per previous;

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock).

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

The Oil break-out came so I am looking at small cap oil per list below. I am watching the support and resistance lines close – especially the yellow ones in the chart.

Outlook: Looking for its new trading range and then I will trade the support and resistance areas.

Trading Plan: Oil equities:

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Oil Trading Chart

Natural Gas $NG_F : $NATGAS (, $UGAZ, $DGAZ):

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted. We’ll see what happens.

Study:

Now that a number of blog posts are being unlocked, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for traders to review them (especially learning traders).

Watch that $SKLN wash out snap back trade on YouTube I posted if you want to learn your indicators!

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, Small Cap Oil, $SDRL, $AKAO, $DVAX, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS, $DWT, $UWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY

Dec 2016

Weekly Swing Trade Member Newsletter – Dec 12, 2016 $JUNO, $SGY, $CBMX, $USOIL, $WTIC, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $VIX

Swing Trading $CBMX, $JUNO, $SGY, $USOIL, DXY, GLD, Gold, S&P 500, Silver, SLV, SPY, Swing Trading, VIX Swing Trader

Good morning traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading newsletter for the week of Dec 12, 2016!

Don’t hesitate to email us at [email protected] anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private mesage Curt in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.

My primary seven swing set-ups this week are:

FX: $USOIL $WTI

You can use a number of instruments to trade oil such as FX $USOIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO and more…. I am using $UCO for the long (by the way $UWTI AND $DWTI are being resurrected so I am very excited to be able to trade these again soon) and I am currently looking at a number of small cap and mid cap oil plays. Oil is in an obvious break-out (and since last report doing well).

The important thing with oil is to watch the Fibonacci levels, trend lines (diagonal and horizontal), your moving averages and your trading widths (margins / pivots). I can’t discuss the algorithm here but I can refer you to Epic the Oil Algo twitter feed for various public posts.

Widths / trading range pivots – Because oil is in a break-out you want to take your long positions at the bottom of the yellow lines and I as I mentioned in the last swing newsletter I WOULD NOT short oil in an uptrend at the top of the yellow lines. Wait to short it when it is in a confirmed downtrend – and now is not a confirmed downtrend. So right now I am looking for an entry long at a lower yellow line at 51.91 with a stop at 51.63 and I would exit before 54.43. See orange arrow. If that fails support and my stop gets hit then I will look at a long at next orange arrow down at 49.56 with a stop at 49.16 and I would exit before resistance at 51.90. If this also failed (the second entry arrow) oil is in a downtrend and levels would have to be looked at again to re-adjust.

If crude happens to get up over current resistance at 54.45 I would take a long position with a stop at 54.29 and if it works I would simply hold until crude finds its new trading range and reevaluate in a week or more but keep the stop in place. You can also move the stop up a bit as crude trades up in this instance.

Fibonacci Levels – As with last newsletter, because oil is in another break out I wouldn’t be comfortable taking a long or short position based on fib levels because they are skewed. Wait for this break-out to back-test and then look at the levels next Sunday night update.

MA – Oil is trading way above its MA’s so there is no concern here with long positions – but take the range pivots in to consideration first. When these become a possible issue I will advise.

Orange arrows represent chart support for long trade in crude oil.

$GOLD – $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG

So last week I said;

Here again I cannot share the proprietary algorithm components of Rosie’s algo but I can share with you the publicly posted data. Rosie predicted in July that Gold would hit this range but also warned of a 90% chance that Gold would have to hit the bottom of a quadrant on her charting. That would put Gold near 1133.00. I am waiting to see if this occurs and I will take a long trade in $NUGT at that time with a normal swing stop of about 4% and then if uptrend confirms I will scale in at 3 stages. Initial order 2000 shares the 5000 then 10000 then 20000 adding at pullbacks.

The idea in swing trading is to catch the trend reversal and then scale in when confirmed.

Good thing I waited! Price has downtrended since. It isn’t at my preferred 1133.00 so I am going to watch – if it starts to take off upward I will start to nibble with long positions with tight stops. No particular level that I would do that – just if it started to move for any more than a day and it looked like it had momentum. Then slowly enter. BUT THE PREFERRED play is to wait for that 1133.00 WHICH COULD COME QUICK NOW.

Watch Rosie the Gold Algo twitter feed for intra-day updates that may occur.

Gold Swing preferred target is 1133.00 ish for long trade.

$SILVER $SLV $USLV $DSLV

Silver is in exactly the same position as Gold – wait for the Gold confirmation before entering IMO. Use the same scaling principals. Watch SuperNova Silver twitter feed too.

I have always said that Silver will hold up better in a downtrend, but it doesn’t mean you take a long position yet. Sure, it came up a bit since last week, but the idea is to catch the tren reversal and scale in to it for a large gain over time.

Silver is in same positon with me as Gold. When Gold goes Silver wll go. $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

$VIX ($UVXY, $TVIX, $XIV)

$VIX

Last week I wrote:

I am going to enter a long position in $UVXY or $TVIX for a short term swing (less than 10 days hopefully) at as close to 12.20 as I can get – if I can’t get that I am looking at 12.77.

Considering the geo political environment I won’t be shorting the $VIX unless it gets really extended to topside – which it is not right now.

So it came down to my price target and I didn’t take a trade – I watched. Then it spiked and I would have had a short term gain. Now it’s sitting back at my buy target area and I am going to watch.

If it starts upward I will likely take a trade long in $TVIX or $UVXY and exit by ratcheting up my stops as it goes. Where exactly where I take that trade? I don’t know. But I’m getting more confident with it because of two reasons.

1. At the end of day Friday the there was $VIX insurance buying even while $SPY was spiking at end of day and $XIV (which is the opposite of $VIX) wasn’t moving like it normally does when there is a $SPY spike. Now, $VIX isn’t determined by $SPY but it is a signficant factor. So when they move in this way it is time to pay attention.

2. ALSO, the CNN fear and greed indicator is near all time highs for greed. If you study it out there is a correlation – when greed is this high 9 times out of 10 there is a spike in $VIX because if nothing else investors start taking out insurance. http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Now, if the $VIX does spike, and the spike is signficant I will short the $VIX because that is always easy money – but that is something that has to be determined on an intra level and I can’t give you levels here on a swing alert.

$VIX Swing trade

$SGY

Last week I wrote this:

I really like this swing as a low float energy play. But you have to set a stop at 4% or so and be ready to ratchet up stops as it gets closer to 8.00. This stock has a history of serious gains when oil gets in to break out mode.

Well… that worked out well. There was a really nice spike right that day for a great gain and it is trading this morning again for a nice gain.

The way to play this one now safe is to watch the oil trading chart and support levels I gave you. Wait for oil to hit one of those two support levels I show on the oil chart and play it exactly like you would oil as I wrote above. And, if oil gets up over that overhead resistance I outlined you can then go long $SGY vs. oil. Either way, if you take a long position at a support set your stop at about 4 – 5% and if you get lift ratchet your stops up as you go. There is no way to give you levels up if it goes – just ratchet up stops at your comfort level.

$SGY Swing trade alert worked well. 7.12 to 8.70 ish and 8.12 now.

$JUNO

Last week I wrote this:

This is a wash-out snap-back swing that I really like. It is up in premarket today but I believe there is a lot of room here. My timeframe is 3 months and I expect a lot of that gap fill to come in to play at 29.83. It has resistance at 22.87 but I don’t think it will hold. One of my favorite swings right now.

So this one didn’t do as well, but I am holding and I will enter with more of a position if it gets back up off it’s feet and starts trending up. Like I wrote, my time-frame is 3 months so I will be patient.

$JUNO Swing Trade

$CBMX

I wrote this last week:

This IMO opinion is a fantastic opportunity – but it does have its risk. You wll have to research the company on your own and make a determination for yourself. But if you find after your research that you think it’s a decent hold for a month or two it is one of the best swing plays on the market at this price IMO. I’m looking to add today to my position.

Well this one worked out well too, I am currently adding in near the 2.90 level. A mid term hold for (3 – 6 months) and I expect close to 50% gain on it. But it is high risk so set stops.

$JUNO Swing Trade

Other Swing Trades I am Looking in to:

Casino stocks: $WYNN $MPEL $MGM $LVS – but I can’t say right now that I will. I am also watching retail and tech for long positions, but not quite ready. Will update on this soon.

This comment from last week remains the same:

That’s about it for this week. I am waiting for the market inflection to settle down and a little more of the indices to settle on the other side of this Trump trade before scaling in to any indices plays and the like. But as I said I am running about 40 charts on plays I am looking at and hope to start adding some of those for next Sunday!

Have a great week and if you have any questions email anytime!

Best of luck.

Curtis

Article Topics; Swing Trading, $JUNO, $SGY, $CBMX, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX

Dec 2016

Monday Dec 12, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.

IMPORTANT NOTICES:

NEW: The is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most.” If you are using our algorithms it is a must read.

ETN’s: $UWTI and $DWTI have been resurected by CitiGroup! $UWT and $DWT http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

LOCKED POSTS: Starting mid December the Member Editions will become available (be unlocked to general public) within days of original publication. Portions that include algorithmic calls and charting that are still in play will not be published until they expire.

MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.

LIVE CHARTS: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.

PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.

24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24 hr crude oil trade room.

PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-over existing members will be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.

SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.

HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. If you need assistance email your questions to [email protected], message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.

FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:

BIG NEWS! Friday premarket I gave you this in the report:

IF $USOIL IS TRADING ABOVE 51.38 THERE IS A REALLY IMPORTANT TIME / PRICE CYLE EXPIRING AT LATEST DEC 13 at 4:00 AM. AT LATEST. This means 98.5% of the time there will be a significant uptrend or downward trend established. WATCH VERY CLOSE. If you review my Twitter feed you will see that I AM ALWAYS RIGHT ABOUT THESE and the price normally drastically moves well before the termination of the time price cycle. IF PRICE IS TRADING UNDER 51.38 YOU CAN DISREGARD THIS NOTICE.

KABOOM!!!

My call to members Friday morning – and what happened next….Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 307 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo

My call to members Friday morning – to be cont… Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 307 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo

Link to the Trading View Live Charting (Member locked version):

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/QIRTUtPW-USOIL-Member-Live-Chart/

$USOIL Member Live Chart by curtmelonopoly on TradingView.com

Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 51.31 (634 ET Dec 9, 2016). Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge (advance algorithmic modeling in member edition);

Crude Oil, Intra-day, Chart

Crude Oil, Intra-day Trade, Price, Chart

Crude oil trading intra-day at 51.20 Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 413 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo

From My Friday Report:

Crude is trading above mid range in its upward channel – AS I HAVE BEEN REPORTING DAILY don’t listen to anyone that says this bearish – it is not – trade the margin widths of the channel if unsure. This report (exactly 24 hours after the one yesterday) and oil is up 1.00.

And what happened next is certainly NOT BEARISH. Don’t forget (and in case you don’t know) EPIC the Oil Algo posted months ago a 72% change that by end of April crude would be between 63.00 – 73.00.

And then also from my Friday premarket Oil Report…. I directed you to the fact that crude was trading toward the alpha algo targets for Friday at 1:00.

Crude oil moving toward algo targets. Crude algo intra work sheet 639 AM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

KABOOM!!!

What happened next was a direct oil algo call hit right to the penny and the exact minute!!!! I am, if you don’t mind me saying, ON FIRE!

In the called target zone again! Crude algo intra work sheet 1221 PM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

In the called target zone again! Crude algo intra work sheet 1221 PM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

So in review, the alpha algo lines were target hits last week, the alpha algo targets were hitting…. and best yet the time / price cycle hit – it not only hit, but it hit in a really precise way. I called the exact price to watch for!!! When you learn how to trade my time / price cycle termination notices you will never leave me. That I can guarantee:)

The only algo indicator missing right now (that I developed proprietary also) are the intra-day quadrants for sniping – crude needs to settle in a natural trading state and then I can publish these. So when the geopolitical folks stop messing with the price of crude I will publish them. They are very, very precise. You may want to also review my Twitter feed since you did last to be sure you’re up to date there also just in case FYI.

Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:

For swings, trade between the yellow lines – they are your primary support and resistance. If price gets up over that upper yellow line at 54.49 the trade between that line as support for longs as long as it stays above and ratchet up your stops when it gets close to major resistance at 54.49, 55.17, 58.37 and 58.57. There are of course other support and resistance lines – but those are they big ones.

Also, pay attention to the upward trending channel – you can enter long and sell in between the channel yellow lines as it trends.

If price stays below the resistance at 54.49 then you trade the channel under that.

If you have any questions email info@compoundtrading with direct questions for direct answers. Or ask in the trade room in a private message to the lead trader.

Crude oil, chart, trendlines, resistance, support

Primary support and resistance trendlines and horiztontal lines. Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 439 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo

Diagonal Trend Lines:

Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.

Look at the chart above – you will see where the diagonal trendlines are trending – WATCH THEM CLOSE. And remember you can come in to the chatroom to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this blog so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!

Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA

Because of the overnight trading break-out the 20, 50, 100, 200 are well above the trading price – so watch the live updates as they are sent or be sure to watch your charting. Watch all the MA’s on the various time-frames for signals in your trading. Most specifically the 200 on the 30 and 15 min charts. Really important price stays above the 200 on the 30 or even 1 hr. As price trades tighter to the MA’s I will update you also.

Fibonacci Levels:

Normally Fib lines for me are a big deal. But with the recent break-out I wouldn’t pay much attention. The reason is simple… you will find that major trendlines on this chart will correspond with major fib resistance and support 99% of the time, but more than that we need to let price settle in a trading zone outside of geopolitical interference and then your fib lines we can dial in for precision trades.

Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):

Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.

Advanced Charting:

Respect support and resistance lines:

If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines for now that is your highest probability trading. With the recent geo political mess it makes the algo targets difficult because crude is not trading in its “natural” state that occurs when the geo political banter stops.

Crude oil is still bullish – don’t listen to the noise. If this changes I will let you know. In the meantime trade the range or snipe knowing your lines and targets.

Oil Time / Price Cycles:

Well, we know from my celebration at the outset of this article that we hit the time / price cycle from last week…. IF $USOIL IS TRADING ABOVE 51.38 THERE IS A REALLY IMPORTANT TIME / PRICE CYCLE EXPIRING AT LATEST DEC 13 at 4:00 AM. AT LATEST. This means 98.5% of the time there will be a significant uptrend or downward trend established. WATCH VERY CLOSE. If you review my Twitter feed you will see that I AM ALWAYS RIGHT ABOUT THESE and the price normally drastically moves well before the termination of the time price cycle. IF PRICE IS TRADING UNDER 51.38 YOU CAN DISREGARD THIS NOTICE.

The time price cycle terminations are use-less to give you right now because the price of crude is right in between a tonne of price decisions – and depending on where price trades intra-day will depend on when the time / cycle terminates. SO WHAT YOU NEED TO DO IS COME IN TO THE ROOM AND ASK ME TO GIVE YOU THE CURRENT TIME / PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS BASED ON CURRENT PRICE AND I WILL. Until then the time cycle terminations are o Dec 12 at 5PMl Dec 13 12 AM, Dec 13 1:00 AM, Dec 14 1 AM, Dec 19 6 AM but with-out knowing where price is going to be during those cycles I can’t tell you right now if they are in play. So ask as needed intra-day until the price of crude finds its range.

Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):

To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.

I can report that the price action since Nov 30 break-out has been respecting the alpha algo trend-lines calculated and published over a week ago with precision.

In the chart below the arrows are for the targets (in the next section below) – the lines however represent where crude will track price – so watch for which line is closest and when price trends away from the line you know where your next alpha line is. Follow these lines for targets also and watch them for support and resistance indicators.

Alpha algo targets on chart – follow algo lines for off chart. Crude oil algo intra work sheet. 517 AM Dec 12 FX $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO #Oil #OOTT #algo

Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):

I can report that the alpha algo primary probability target prediction from last week for Wednesday December 7 at 10:30 as a direct hit for that time / price cycle. And so did the Friday target at 1:00 PM as a direct hit! As I mentioned at the beginning of this post! Very trade-able calls – excellent!

So what is your most probable algo target for Tuesday at 10:30 EST? Your closest target is always the most probable. Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so.

The problem you have to weigh is that crude is now consolidating after a break-out – so price needs to find it’s alpha algo line and range and then targets become way more predictable. Nonetheless, the targets for this week are represented on the chart above and for the ones above you will need to follow the algo lines. Again, refer to the live charting I send you for this also or be in the trading room.

I WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED ALSO IF THERE ARE NEW ALGO TARGETS ESTABLISHED BECAUSE NEW ALPHA ALGO LINES TEND TO GET ESTABLISHED AFTER A BREAK_OUT. So here again, watch the updates or be sure to be in the trading room.

Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.

Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.

Also, please be sure to refer to the most recent post for your algo targets (there is an additional target as mentioned on the chart above now of course also).

Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

Well we just got to a point where we were in a trading range and the quadrants were getting locked in and the geo political interference caused the break-out in crude oil price. So we need to wait now for two things; the price of crude to establish a trading range and for at least Tuesday and Wednesday targets to be established. Here again, watch for updates.

Indicator Methods:

As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.

You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.

We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you undersatand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion:

That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.

Watch my Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.

EPIC the Oil Algo

Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets

Dec 2016

Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades, Algo Calls and Alerts for Friday Dec 9 $IDXG, $XIV, $GOLD, $USDJPY, $USOIL, $SPY, $WTIC, $NATGAS, $VIX, $SILVER, and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive.

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

New: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most.” If you are using our algorithms it is a must read.

Overview Perspective & Review of Chat Room, Algos, Trades and Alerts:

I had a decent scalping day. Caught morning momentum stock $IDXG, caught $SDRL (an oil driller) but should have held because not only did it run late day (like I thought it would but it ran later than I thought it would) and also the oil deal on weekend I am sure will cause more spike here, and $XIV I caught for a standard play.

Primary Lessons That May Help Your Trades:

Once again trading your plan – $SDRL early sell wasn’t the right call. Profit, but not the right call.

Looking Forward:

Monday will definately be about oil and small cap oil equities FX: $USOIL $WTI | $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT.

Looking toward the trend reversal on Gold $GC_F $GLD and Silver $SL_F $SLV . I really want to get on the right side of that move – not only in Gold and Miner’s ($GDX), but with the Gold company stocks too (small, mid and large) – will be a huge swing and even trend reversal IMO.

Watching for indications in $SPY and $USD/SPY for inflecton ($DXY). Watching $VIX for tell tale signs of potential dips in $SPY.

Announcements in Trading Room:

08:49 am Curtis M : Good morning traders! Lots going on be sure to read premarket newsletter!

We have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen – if you\’re moved don\’t sweat it.

08:50 am Curtis M : Gainers: $IDXG 36%25, $SSH 22%25, $SWC 19%25, $FGP 9%25, $FNSR 8%25, $MPEL 6%25, $AVGO $WYNN $NVCN $DYN $LVS $NAK $OCLR $DNN $CCJ $BIIB

Good morning traders! Lots going on be sure to read premarket newsletter!

We have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen – if you\’re moved don\’t sweat it.

12:01 pm Curtis M : On lunch until 12:30 EST

Gainers: $IDXG 36%25, $SSH 22%25, $SWC 19%25, $FGP 9%25, $FNSR 8%25, $MPEL 6%25, $AVGO $WYNN $NVCN $DYN $LVS $NAK $OCLR $DNN $CCJ $BIIB

Good morning traders! Lots going on be sure to read premarket newsletter!

We have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen – if you\’re moved don\’t sweat it.

Stock Chat-room Trading Transcript:

Miscellaneous chatter is removed.

09:04 am Gunnar Thomsen : Spot on…
09:17 am OILQ K : I’m better
09:18 am OILK K : lol u wish
09:27 am Curtis M : Gainers: IDXG +45%. SWC +19%. SGYP +15%. NAK +11%. NVCN +9%. FGP +8%. ORIG +8%. FNSR +8%. MPEL +7%. AVGO +6%. WYNN +6%. LVS +6%. BIIB +5%.Losers: SCON -28%. MVIS -25%. CLSD -22%. RH -17%. SBGL -15%. USAC -8%. AIRG -6%.
09:33 am Curtis M : Long 2000 1.75 $IDXG
09:34 am Curtis M : Out 1.84
09:36 am Curtis M : Crude on high watch fro break of upside resistance
09:39 am Pam E : $SSH momo
09:40 am Curtis M : .
09:45 am Curtis M : $SDRL
09:50 am Curtis M : $IDXG 86% $SWc 17% $FCP 13% $SGYP 8.8%
09:50 am Mathew Waterfall : Got stopped out of $SWC common position yesterday. Hate that
09:50 am Mathew Waterfall : But had MGM calls and some $SDLP to make me feel better
09:51 am Curtis M : $SGYP red
09:52 am Mathew Waterfall : Wow had an order for $SGYP ready this am. It broke out of the wedge I had marked. Damn it lost its footing quickly
09:56 am Mathew Waterfall : I like your picks. Long $ORIG from 1.9
09:57 am Mathew Waterfall : Currently have a trailer on it but it has been on a rampage this AM
10:00 am Curtis M : ugh
10:01 am Curtis M : $MGM nice Mathew — casinos fun 24 hours
10:01 am Mathew Waterfall : Yea got lucky and had my prior $MGM calls sold on the way down, picked up more cheap at the bottom and just sold some for a quick double to hold the rest for free
10:10 am Curtis M : $SDRL $NADL $ATW $ORIG $PACD all on gh watch with me if crude oil braks upside trendline and resistance – would be huge.
10:12 am Mathew Waterfall : $SDLP smoke show. nice
10:24 am Mathew Waterfall : Cheap $SDRL calls for next week. hit 4.5’s for .10. Great r/r if oil gets moving. SDRL sees 4+ on monday and thse are easy 3 baggers
10:26 am Curtis M : might be a good play Mathew… just might be
10:27 am Mathew Waterfall : Super low risk which is why I love calls in this type of play. $SDRL gets killes you don’t lose much, it pops you win big
10:55 am Mathew Waterfall : Rolling some $RIG calls out here. Dec14.5’s to Jan6 16’s for .35 credit. Taking gains and will take advantage of a move up with a higher delta
11:06 am Curtis M : Gonna look at $DGAZ when $NATGAS around 3.73
11:18 am Mathew Waterfall : You in my watchlist this morning? lol I;m in this as well
11:20 am Curtis M : $DNAI
11:39 am Curtis M : Long 45.956 2000 $XIV starter in swing acct
11:50 am Curtis M : $INVN
11:56 am cam u : OIl meetings likely big play with drillers
11:57 am OILQ K : I like the drillers play too – oil meetings likely positive news with Russia
12:05 pm gary y : thanks
12:05 pm Curtis M : ok back in 12 mins lol
12:17 pm Curtis M : Back from lunch – looks like EPIC’s taget call is in play lol – love EPIC
12:33 pm Curtis M : Running scans for afternoon
12:35 pm Curtis M : 2000 Sold $XIV 46.2658 avg win
12:38 pm Mathew Waterfall : Stalking some WYNN calls here. Likely end of month 94/5s
12:38 pm Mathew Waterfall : $WYNN
12:45 pm Mathew Waterfall : $LVS Dec30 60c’[email protected]. Won’t have a ton of patience with this but will let it play until mid next week at least unless I ge a large move in either direction
12:46 pm Mathew Waterfall : Also looking at adding back $MGM calls to replace what I got out of this AM
12:47 pm Clarissa Nell : Here it comes
12:50 pm Mathew Waterfall : In $MGM Dec30 30c’s @.63. Same play/leash as LVS calls above
12:51 pm Curtis M : $WYNN good call IMO
12:51 pm Curtis M : Got a plan for a play on rig count at 1 pm and put close going in to weekend oil meetings #OOTT $USOIL $WTIC $USO $UCO #Drillers
12:54 pm Mathew Waterfall : In some $WYNN Dec23 100c’s as well. Smaller delta but an early week move up should juice these
12:54 pm Mathew Waterfall : Thanks. Have played this well this week. Weakness on Macau report way over done IMO
01:11 pm Curtis M : 5000 $SDRL long 3.78 ish scaling
02:15 pm Mathew Waterfall : Convenient to have a dog to blame that on haha
02:32 pm Curtis M : Long $XIV 200 46.418 2000
02:33 pm Curtis M : Long $XIV 2000 46.418
02:33 pm Curtis M : Tight stop
02:34 pm Curtis M : $SDRL had a 2.5 cent gain only bahahah played it bad
02:34 pm Curtis M : Out XIV should have opped IMO flat
02:35 pm Mathew Waterfall : Lot of people buying protection up here
02:35 pm Mathew Waterfall : Makes sense, it’s cheap and we are at ATH’s
02:37 pm Curtis M : Taking 10 mins do some scanning and then may call it a day unless theres something at play
02:48 pm Curtis M : So were finally going to publish the remaining algos next week FOR SURE cause theres media coming up before 30 th so look for those posts on the blog.
02:49 pm Curtis M : Im going to hang out till close looking for any end of week plays but likely none. But I’ll be in room till 4
03:05 pm Mathew Waterfall : Think I’m done for the day. HAGW all
03:06 pm Curtis M : cya mathew
03:07 pm market maven : cathya later guys
03:16 pm Curtis M : The rip $SPY
03:29 pm OILQ K : What a great week guys thanks – I’m out.
03:31 pm Curtis M : Tried to warn the Gold bugs
03:59 pm Curtis M : Have a great weekend!

Article Topics: Compound Trading, Trading Lessons, Results, Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Investing, Chat Room, Trading Results, $SDRL, $IDXG, $XIV, $ES_F, $SLV, $SILVER, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $USDJPY, $DXY, $USOIL, $WTIC, $NATGAS, $NG_F, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $VIX

Dec 2016

Why our Stock Algorithms are Different Than Most

“Tell me about your algorithms for trading stocks and how you are achieving these winning results?” September 23,

Why our Stock Algorithms are Different Than Most

Lead Trader Blog Post, Machine Trading Algo, Algorithms, Compound trading, Gold, Oil, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks, Trading, US Dollar, VIX, Volatility, What Makes Our Algos Different Curt Melonopoly

“Tell me about your algorithms for trading stocks and how you are achieving these winning results?”

September 23, 2019 Update: White Paper: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading Methods

Feb 20, 2019 algorithm development article here:

Learn about how our team is developing machine learning software for trading oil futures contracts CL and more. “The Bullet Hits Before You Hear It” | Why You Can’t Beat Machine Trading Algorithms.

That was a recent question posed by a reporter during a telephone call in preparation for an upcoming show I am booked to appear on. The reporter’s question caused me serious pause… the “how and w hy” started to consume my thought process. And, there have been many, from friends and family to our subscribers that have asked similar questions. I get it; what causes someone to dive deep enough to actually do that?

The answer is really quite simple, “Necessity is the mother of invention.”

So here is a bit about my journey so far, how the algorithms were developed, and how they may or may not help you with your trading.

I Needed to Win – The Market Changed.

I trade. I have been trading since I was twenty-one years old (so almost thirty years). But recently, the stock market has changed in three distinct ways that make it more difficult for a trader to always operate in the ultimate position, being “the trader’s edge”.

Computer algorithms (Jim Cramer commented on this topic recently on Mad Money on CNBC).
The Federal Reserve monetary policy, this point being the most important as far as I’m concerned.
The sideways markets the last few years.

So I set out to solve the problem for myself: how do I get back my trader’s edge? And if I can’t, then I shouldn’t trade.

Most Stock Market Algorithms Do Not Work or Are Too Expensive.

Yes, it is true. Similar to how 90% or more of day trader’s fail, at least 90% of stock market algorithms either do not work or are outright scams preying on people that are failing. Maybe they had good intentions when they set out to develop their algorithms, but most do not work.

The majority of these algorithms are high frequency or FX market-type automated tools (“bots”) that represent some form of winning percentages to the public. However, the truth of it is that the successful algorithms, the real good ones that actually do perform well, are simply out of reach to the retail public. A bottom of the barrel algorithm costs minimum 4,000.00 per month and I have looked into some (available at a retail level) upward 200,000.00 per month or more. If any of these “out of reach” algorithms are even made available at all, you will pay dearly. And why not, I suppose? If they work they’re worth it, especially algorithms that can hit 80%, 90% or more.

The problem for me was, I couldn’t afford upwards 200,000.00 per month for a decent algorithm. I am a doubter by nature, and price tags within these ranges put my hard-earned money at risk. So, I set out to figure the mechanics out on my own.

My Mission: Develop the Math and Start Making Public Calls.

While I was in the Caribbean with my family last winter, I started to work on the math. When I felt I was getting close, I started to publish calls on Twitter for the six algorithms I was working on (in the quietest way possible, but still making calls so it was public and undeniable if the math actually worked – which I doubted by the way, so I was really extending myself there). The six algos I started to work on are Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $SPY (S&P 500), $GLD (Gold), $SLV (Silver), $DXY (US Dollar Index), and the $VIX (volatility index). I have also worked on natural gas – but the math is “off” so I don’t know that I will ever publish it.

Over time, the calls I was making (based on the algorithms and not my personal trader bias) started to hit. I was working on different time frames from intra-day, to swing, and months out… and they’ve all been hitting at better than 90% (the tighter the time cycle the higher the probability of a win hit). When my own trader/human bias was involved, I was lucky to still be hitting 60%. This was the most difficult and humbling part of it for me, the realization that my mind as a trader couldn’t outperform the math.

“How can simple math beat me, the ultra, omnipotent trader?”

Seven months later, and I still struggle with trusting the algo calls (the simple math), but as time moves on, I’m having less difficulty with this.

So What Are These Algorithms?

Simply put, these algorithms are based on:

Traditional math (simple logic), which involves considerable weight toward simple average.
Traditional algorithm modeling disciplines.
Traditional stock market charting and indicators.

It is a mixture of these three components that constitute what the algorithms we use are based on.

The most important thing to understand is these algorithms are not high frequency/bot or “automated-type” algorithms. And they are not cryptic balls using a “crystal ball”; they are scientific and represent simple math. There is no crystal ball, no “top-secret” artificial intelligence, and no geopolitical reasoning.

Visit this link for a list of the most common algorithms found/used on the stock market.

My algorithms are different, in that they are probability algorithms based on the most absolute logic available, designed with the goal in mind to provide the trader (whether it be for intra-day, swings, or investing) an edge in a specific stock, currency or commodity by representing the conclusions of the math on a traditional 2D stock chart. In other words,

Keep it Simple Stupid! If you can’t represent the conclusions of the algorithm on a chart that a trader can use to trigger their own trades, then it is useless as far as I am concerned.

The more these algorithms can be used in traditional charting and on similar platforms, the better. They are, after all, developed by taking traditional charting indicators (that are represented on a chart) to start with. So why not? I suppose there is an argument for the high frequency bots and other tools in my category – but for my purpose, that wasn’t my goal or intended use and purpose.

So think of it like this: when you learn how to use the Fibonacci retracement indicator, for example, it is represented on a chart in a specific way. That is, in its simplest form, what we are doing. We are representing our algorithmic indicators in a specific way on a chart for the trader to use. Fibonacci is an algorithm in itself, as are the other indicators traders use everyday (most traders don’t think of them that way – but they are). Its just that we are taking what we discover to be the best indicators for specific instruments and extracting the best probabilities from a group of indicators and representing that as a probability to the trader – on a chart, in a specific way. It turns out, based on conversations with software developers I’ve had, that this is a very technical process called “reduction”: representing one problem as something “just as difficult” or “easier” than a complex one.

Here is an interesting Ted Talk video that puts a perspective on it that is more similar to what our work objectives and methodology involves:

More Specifically, How Is Each Algorithm Processed?

The easy part is the math, but representing the mathematical conclusions on a 2D chart in such a way that is easily usable by a trader is the hard part. The math is simple (in that the math and charting is standard and nothing crystal ball like – it is, a scientific process) but once you have the results it then becomes how the heck you get that on a chart – and for all the different time frames. The real challenge is how to project the results of these mathematical processes onto a chart, for all the different time frames, that is also human-readable and “intuitive.”

In its most basic form, the development process can be detailed as follows:

Simple Averages: Stock charts present endless opportunities to run averages. What is the average price annually? Last 4 years? Last month? What is the average price of crude at 10:30 Wednesday morning? What is the average drop in crude at EIA report time? Average spike? What is the average spike in the S&P at 2:30 PM? And on and on and on and on. So for each algorithm there are hundreds of averages or patterns as a result of averages – or better described as probabilities.
Indicators: Take the traditional charting for the equity, currency or commodity you are working with and use each time frame you want to work with and determine which traditional indicators work better than others. Then weigh each indicator in accordance to its “win rate”. Then take that data and relate it to step 1 above. Simple right? Simple logic if you ask me. Different equities, currencies and commodities trade different in relation to various traditional indicators. So it’s just charting on steroids. But – using simple logic.
Modeling: This gets a little more complex. Then you take the various traditional algorithmic disciplines that you understand can be applied to stocks and begin to run simple models (patterns, averages, timing, price in relation to time, etc). One very important part in this is removing the anomalies. In other words, every stock, currency or commodity will have anomalies, which take it out of (remove it from) its natural trading pattern. For example, Fed talk affects the S&P 500, or currency is affected by currency wars and oil is affected by rig counts and inventories. So you remove the anomalies and you work with your modelling. This is where you get your quadrants from by the way.

Then, you need to take this data and represent it on a traditional chart so that a trader can use the information to gain an advantage in specific scenarios (in different time frames for swing, daytrading and investing) – the trader’s edge.

This is the hard part – representing all that data in an easy to understand way for the trader on a chart.

So How Do I Use The Algorithm?

Each algorithm is charted as I mentioned, so it becomes a process of understanding how to use the algorithmic chart indicators (that we develop and provide) to your advantage. A quick visit to an EPIC the Oil Algo blog post may help understanding (keep in mind one post won’t show all the indicators because they are a running story – but you will get the point). It really comes down to time frames of trade for swings, investing or day trading and the specific indicators. The primary indicators we provide our subscribers are (and they are growing):

Time/Price Cycle: This indicator is proving to be very helpful. You will find on my personal feed, or for example on Epic’s Twitter feed, how absolutely and incredibly accurate these have been. Time/price cycles are important because they signal a change in trend – and knowing when a trend is going to change is the best edge a trader can have. This has been my number one edge because I scale into trades. I day trade when a currency, commodity or index stock is at an inflection point with the objective being to get on the right side of the trade. Once I am on the right side of the trend it is hammer down time for me – and truth be told it is vital because you only get so many chances in that over a five year period for each commodity, index or currency. We provide these as written times of the week (day and hour) for our traders.
Alpha Algo Targets: Targets are great. Having targets that hit with regularity are even better. Our algos are hitting targets at 80-95% depending on the algorithm and time frame you are looking at. Calls days out we are hitting between 80 – 90%, calls months out we are hitting in that range too (but our algos are only seven months old so data is difficult to brag about) and intra-day we are hitting well over 90% with most of the algos. If you review an EPIC member blog post you will see these as red circles on the chart.
Alpha Algo Trend-Lines: These are trend lines just like traditional trend-lines that are established primarily as a result of averages (taking into consideration time/price cycles) and how the price of the equity interacts with price. In other words, algorithms out there are using averages to such a degree that we can actually determine where the lines are because price is affected when the price is traded across the line upward or down. These anomalies in price action are a result of machine trading. Why is this important to know? Because the trend-lines act like traditional trend-lines in that they represent support and resistance. If you review an EPIC member blog post you will see these as red dotted lines on the chart.
Algorithmic Trading Quadrants (or trading ranges): Quadrants are more complicated to explain in short, but like described in the Ted Talk video above, we have discovered quadrants or geometric shapes in which stocks will trade, most specifically within large liquidity environments such as with currencies, commodities or indices. The quadrants are represented on our charting for our traders only when they are predictable and provide an edge. When they are in play they are precise to say the least and provide a trader with pin-point sniper intra-day trading (because you are in essence trading along with the machines). These quadrants can be intra-day or even represented on up to 5 year charts we have discovered. Great examples of these wider time frame calls would be our calls with the US Dollar, Silver and Gold – nobody believed the calls we started making months ago and all of our price targets have recently hit – it blew people away.

Here is an example algorithm represented on a 2D chart:

Target Called Days in Advance! On Fire! $USOIL by curtmelonopoly on TradingView.com

Why Liquidity is Critical and Why I Use Instruments like $UWTI (now called $UWT)

Specific to day trading with these algorithms, liquidity is important because you are taking advantage of (exploiting) not only that you know (better than most) what the machines are doing (which provides a distinct edge), but you are more importantly exploiting what other traders are going to do as a result of what the machines have done intra-day (so the goal is to know in advance what the machines will do at various decisions).

In other words, if I know that crude is going to spike because it is near an algo line and I know that when it crosses that line to the upside it will either spike or drop and I know that $REN, for example, is squeezing, then I can exploit that because oil will spike as it crosses the trendline, as will $REN or $UWT.

So my advance knowledge in relation to the probability of that spike enables me to exploit that spike in an equity or ETN that returns unusual short time frame returns.

This page link on our website will show you real life examples of how EPIC the Oil Algo allows me to exploit the algorithmic knowledge I have.

Liquidity gets me predictability for spikes that I need for entries and it also allows me to chip out of large entries when needed in a predictable way.

Where and How Are The Algorithms Available?

We have a main trading room that is like any other trading room where I perform trades during regular market hours. Our algorithmic charting is represented at times in that room but never in whole and only as they are in their initial development phase. Once the algorithm is at a point of proven predictability we then will move it to its own trading room (like EPIC the Oil algo is getting his own 24 hour trading room for crude oil futures).

Also, subscribers to algorithm newsletters get regular updates on that specific algorithm (most are daily but can be intermittent depending on indicators changing). So the subscribers to the specific algorithms are receiving all the algorithmic indicators, trading levels, targets, algo lines etc on a regular basis – subscribers to the main trading room are receiving the benefit (or bonus) of algorithmic charting at various times while an algorithm is in its infancy and being tested or represent in different ways for various reasons.

Algorithm Performance

The performance of the algorithms has completely surprised me – I seriously thought I would be doing great if they achieved a 60% win rate – 90% plus I never fathomed. But what is more interesting (and keep in mind they are only seven months old and each is at a different level of development) is that they are getting more refined and more predictable (with higher win rates) as time goes on. So this is, at least so far, very encouraging.

Plans Going Forward

Right now we are in what we consider a beta phase. We have a main trading room and we have started the process of publishing the six different algo newsletters that represent the algorithmic and traditional charting. Subscribers can use just the room, our swing trading newsletter service or the algo newsletters independent of each other.

This Monday, we publish the remaining charting for all the algos – they are all in a development process at different stages and some of them we haven’t published the charting yet.

Early 2017 we expect EPIC to have his own 24 hour room for oil futures trading and we expect the other five algorithms to be completely proven within a few months. Our oil algo is farthest along in terms of development/proof-of-concept, and our Gold, Silver and US Dollar algos are not far behind oil and are further along in the process than our S&P 500 and VIX algos. Gold, Silver and US Dollar algos should be completely proven out by March 1, and the S&P 500 and VIX by May 1. We are also working on a natural gas algo (as mentioned above), but it isn’t as predictable.

We have others traders coming on in early 2017 to run rooms that focus on trading options, swing trades and momentum plays, as well.

Our future forward plans include a multi-room platform wherein our vision for a democratized environment is developed for Wall Street (as it applies to algorithms being available to the common man – ones that actually work), and we have plans for big data and artificial intelligence (with the goal of increasing our win rates).

Our Guarantees & Pricing Structures

Recently, I had a few traders ask me about our price increases, so I thought I would comment a bit here on that with our reasoning and a Christmas guarantee.

Our trading room is within the typical range at 199.00 a month (for a room that runs charting, screen sharing, algo development, detailed trade broadcasting, a detailed daily premarket newsletter with charting, etc) and with the initial discount code of 38.2% on an annual membership of 990.00/with discount just over 600.00 (or about 50.00) a month – that’s a steal in my thinking.

Our algos currently range in price from 30.00 a month to 500.00 per month depending on how far along they are in development. And even the most expensive, at 500.00 per month, is available at 1,999.00 per year and with a 38.2% discount on the first order is just over 1,200.00, or 100.00 per month for a high performance algorithm.

If a trader can’t return that 100.00 per month or more with EPIC or the 50.00 with the trading room, then they are doing something wrong with the information provided or the information is faulty and we shouldn’t be in this to begin with (the trader’s edge is the whole purpose for doing this). And even at the monthly rates without the one time discount, there should be no reason a trader can’t get a fantastic return on investment. My point? The algorithm or service you are subscribing to and its related cost should be in accordance to the return on investment – I believe without a shadow of a doubt that our pricing achieves that.

The first guarantee we will give you is that the algorithm prices are going up as the algorithms are developed (and they need to as more staff are hired, more office space is needed and more equipment is needed to run the calculations) – but we will guarantee our early adopters the original price paid as long as they continue to subscribe – we don’t care if that is for years – early adopters get the bonus. Late adopters will have to pay fair market value and that’s totally fair and equitable in our thinking. See the terms and conditions on this before subscribing please.

And to our second guarantee, to be absolutely sure we have done everything we can to be sure we stand on this we are prepared to guarantee your investment in our service. In other words, if you sign on we’ll guarantee your first subscription cost 100% – more specifically that you will at least return that amount of profit within the duration of the subscription to cover the cost. There are some conditions, specific to your sharing your trades live and providing documentation (terms and conditions on this guarantee you will be able to find on our website before Dec 24, 2016). So if you agree to the terms we will guarantee that for you. So we’re taking the risk out – that’s the confidence we have in our service.

And finally, if you are a full-time student paying your own way or underprivileged in an extreme manner and don’t mind sharing your story with us and you need a leg up, then send a private DM to me personally on my Twitter and I will consider anything to give back to the community that has been good to me (we may also have some traders that would consider sponsoring you). Either way, we can look at that on a case-by-case basis and I’m not guaranteeing anything because we each only get so many of these “credit codes” to distribute annually. My Twitter handle is @curtmelonopoly. Do me a favor and try and do it before our media interviews start at the end of December 2016.

The link to our subscription shop page is here.

So that’s my post on why our algorithms are different, how we came along to launch a service like this, how I use the algorithms for my trading. pricing structure and our plans going forward.

Any questions at all email us anytime at [email protected].

Best to you and yours!

Curtis

Our algo Twitter feeds:

$WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Article Topics: Compound Trading, Algorithms, Trading, What Makes Our Algos Different, Stocks, Trading, Oil, S&P 500, Silver, US Dollar, $VIX, Volatility, Gold

Dec 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Friday Dec 9 $IDXG, $AEM, $TBIO, $GLD $GDX $SLV $USOIL $WTIC $NG_F $USD/JPY $SPY $VIX …

My Stock Trading Plan for Friday Dec 9, 2016 in Chatroom. Small cap oil, Casino stocks, Tech, Retail,

My Stock Trading Plan for Friday Dec 9, 2016 in Chatroom. Small cap oil, Casino stocks, Tech, Retail, $IDXG, $AEM, $TBIO, $GOLD, $GLD, Miners, $GDX, $SILVER, $SLV, $USOIL, $WTI, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $VIX, $NATGAS … more.

Welcome to the Thursday Wall Street trading short day session!

Important Notices:

$UWTI $DWTI have been resurrected as $UWT and $DWT – this is a massive thing for my trading to say the least. http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

Oil meetings are this weekend so everything oil related is on high watch!

Current Holds:

$CBMX, $JUNO

Market Outlook:

Casino stocks on watch!!! Wash-out snap backs! $WYNN $MPEL $MGM $LVS

Dips on $GOLD are NOT being bought now vs.selling the rips (so this by default plays in to $SILVER). The Trump train / reflation train.

$NATGAS has come off some from important resistance I alerted.

$USOIL $WTI is dialed in with EPIC the Oil Algo perfect and price is on its way to EPICs new targets! so machines have been on since mid November break-out (so this makes trading oil related easier for me).

$SPY has continued its upward trend. Watching markets for a pull back (as noted previous) sometime near or just after Christmas (it seems we have a Santa Claus rally).

And that brings me to momo stocks and rotation therein, looks like a fun two weeks setting up here. So these remain on high watch.

I am also watching Tech and Retail.

Crude algo intra work sheet 743 AM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

These algorithmic charts will not be shared in the room or in this morning newsletter indefinetly (and without the algo newsletter they don’t do you a lot of good). While in beta for each they will be shared at times in the general room and in general watchlists etc but not indefinitely and not completely.

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $IDXG 63%, $AEM 46%, $TBIO 38%, $SWC 21%, $FGP 13%, $LVS $MBLX $FNSR $MPEL $WYNN $JCOM $AVGO $CCJ $SSH $BIIB $MGM I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $WYNN, $MPEL, $MGM, $LVS, $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(5) Upgrades: I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Outlook: I was looking at a possible pull-back between now and Tuesday but that may not happen. As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Outlook: Looking for possible record lows before Christmas.

Watch for volatility to rise on a trend – even if $SPY is still rising – volatility is a great indicator for what’s around the corner.

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

$USDJPY Did warn em. Break out. $GLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG $DXY

US Dollar may come off in to downtrend soonish though – seeing some areas of global markets that are becoming interesting here.

Pre previous: Inflection point. No clear direction. $USD/JPY not backing off yet. Our $DXY algo had 100.50 as a PT so I’m watching. Lots of fundamentals at work here and geo.

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

$USD/JPY Per previous – Caution Gold bulls.

My Trading Plan for Gold:

Waiting for a long trade confirmation in Gold.

I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely – very possibly today. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Silver $SL_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

My Plan for Trading Silver:

Per previous;

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock).

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

Per previous:

Crude is trading within its range. Until it breaks its recent highs it isn’t bullish and until it breaks its recent lows – same thing. So I will trade the range if at all.

Outlook: Per previous – trading range. There are oil meetings this weekend again so watch close. I will be watching small cap oil very close Friday and Monday!!!

Trading Plan: Oil equities:

Natural Gas $NG_F : $NATGAS (, $UGAZ, $DGAZ):

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted. We’ll see what happens.

Study:

Watch that $SKLN wash out snap back trade on YouTube I posted if you want to learn your indicators!

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, $IDXG, $AEM, Casino stocks, Small Cap Oil, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS, $DWT, $UWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY

Dec 2016

Friday Dec 9, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.

IMPORTANT NOTICES:

NEW ETNS: $UWTI and $DWTI have been resurected by CitiGroup! $UWT and $DWT http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB

MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.

LIVE CHARTS: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.

PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned in my last report this week is a big week for me – I am going to go to patent phase. I have six months of proven predictability of over 90%. My process is proprietary and qualifies for patent. The charting for members will become much more involved over the coming weeks (specific to proprietary details). Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.

24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24hr crude oil trade room.

How My Algorithm Works and Availability:

I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered only one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.

FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:

Link to the Trading View Live Charting (Member locked version):

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/9jlw8DPK-USOIL-Member-Chart/

$USOIL Member Chart by curtmelonopoly on TradingView.com

Crude Oil, Intraday, Chart
Trading intra-day 51.31. Crude algo intra work sheet 632 AM Dec 8 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Crude is trading above mid range in its upward channel – AS I HAVE BEEN REPORTING DAILY don’t listen to anyone that says this bearish – it is not – trade the margin widths of the channel if unsure. This report (exactly 24 hours after the one yesterday) and oil is up 1.00.

Crude oil moving toward algo targets. Crude algo intra work sheet 639 AM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:

Please refer to yesterday’s report for specific trading range triggers. They are specific to the yellow lines on the chart above (for those that need to be adjusted intra day).

Diagonal Trend Lines:

Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA

Crude is trading above the 200 MA on the 30 min… watch this close today and Monday.

Crude oil trading above 200 MA on 30 Min. Crude algo intra work sheet 700 AM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Fibonacci Levels:

Watch the fib level overhead at 51.90 really close – it corresponds with heavy resistance (yellow line)

Fibonacci levels to watch in crude oil. Crude algo intra work sheet 706 AM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):

Advanced Charting:

Respect support and resistance lines:

Crude oil is still bullish – don’t listen to the noise – this is a consolidation period in the upward trend in a channel against resistance. If this changes I will let you know. In the meantime trade the range or snipe knowing your lines and targets.

Oil Time / Price Cycles:

IF $USOIL IS TRADING ABOVE 51.38 THERE IS A REALLY IMPORTANT TIME / PRICE CYLE EXPIRING AT LATEST DEC 13 at 4:00 AM. AT LATEST. This means 98.5% of the time there will be a significant uptrend or downward trend establshed. WATCH VERY CLOSE. If you review my Twitter feed you will see that I AM ALWAYS RIGHT ABOUT THESE and the price normally drastically moves well before the termination of the time price cycle. IF PRICE IS TRADING UNDER 51.38 YOU CAN DISREGARD THIS NOTICE.

Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):

The algo lines and targets have been adjusted since last report and there is a new line and targets on this chart!!!

I can report that the price action since Nov 30 break-out has been respecting the alpha algo trend-lines calculated and published over a week ago with precision.

Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):

I can report that the alpha algo primary probability target prediction from last week for Wednesday December 7 at 10:30 as a direct hit for that time / price cycle. Very trade-able call – excellent.

So what is your most probable algo target for Friday at 1:00 PM EST? Your closest target is always the most probable. Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so. FRIDAY targets do not hit as often as TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TARGETS FYI.

Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.

Also, please be sure to refer to the most recent post for your algo targets (there is an additional target as mentioned on the chart above now of course also).

Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

Now that Wednesday target is complete and it hit we are calculating quadrants for intr day trading and will post as soon as done.

Indicator Methods:

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:

We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you undersatnd the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion:

Watch my Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.

EPIC the Oil Algo

Dec 2016

Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades, Algo Calls and Alerts for Thursday Dec 8 $COOL, $IDXG, $XIV, $GOLD, $USDJPY, $USOIL, $SPY, $WTIC, $NATGAS, $VIX, $SILVER, and more.

Intro:

Overview Perspective & Review of Chat Room, Algos, Trades and Alerts:

We’re going to publish the remaining between now and next week in preparaton for all their whte papers before the meda programs air. So this of course helps my trading and the set-ups in my opinion (some continued trends and some are trend changes) – so on the other side of the inflection with some of the algos it should be a decent opportunity to scalle in on mid term trades early 2017 and with the other algos like $SPY and $USOIL we’re able to snip intra etc.

Also, generally in the market it was the Trump Train / reflation trade continued and the small cap super novas were firing on all cylinders.

Good wow reflation trade morning! 🚀 China producer prices, GOLD, Nikkei, the train is full steam ahead. 🤓 #stockmarket #wallstreet #trading pic.twitter.com/QjjZ2ug2HA

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 9, 2016

Primary Lessons That May Help Your Trades:

For those that do follow my trades…. I would the main point right now is that continued patience with the reflective trade portion will pay huge dividends (such as with the US Dollar, Gold, and Silver). I took a lot of heat back in summer and early fall with our calls from folks like Gold bugs when we called the down and they were calling the uptrend. So now it’s a matter of just waiting for that turn…. and it may take a while but scaling in to the turn properly can return huge dividends.

$COOL I got out a bit early and $XIV I may have also executed my exit too early. I was thinking maybe a downdraft in $SPY between Friday and Tuesday morning sometime so I was trying to avoid a continued press on volatility.

Looking Forward:

There are a tonne of set-ups in the market right now. Still on my watch are emerging markets and Friday / Monday could be smoking hot trading with small cap oil considering the upcoming meetings. Dips on $GOLD are not now being bought vs.selling the rips (so this by default plays in to $SILVER) $NATGAS hit resistance and it showed so watching $DGAZ and $UGAZ on the break-out side. $USOIL $WTI is dialed in with EPIC the Oil Algo perfect so machines have been on since mid November break-out. Looks like there is a replacement for $UWTI and $DWTI on deck $UWT and $DWT so I’m pumped for that – of course with having EPIC around lol.

$UWTI $DWTI $UWT $DWT VelocityShares launching oil ETNs to replace delisted notes https://t.co/Pgvcj1MEcg via @ReutersUK

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 9, 2016

Crude oil moving toward algo targets. Crude algo intra work sheet 613 AM Dec 9 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo

Announcements in Trading Room:

08:41 am Curtis Melonopoly : Hey guys and gals… if you aren’t signed on as a member we have to hit the switch if you\’ve already been in our room previous for trial. 🙂 Thank you.

08:43 am Curtis Melonopoly : Room member newsletter passwords and links sent. Algo live charting and newsletters with password and link sent. If you don\’t have it in your email inbox let us know.

09:20 am Curtis M : Gainers: VYGR +38%25. TLRD +25%25. LULU +17%25. CTRV +13%25. AVXL +10%25.

Losers: SHIP -43%25. OHRP -27%25. HTBX -18%25. HZNP -18%25. IPI -12%25. PBYI -11%25. VRNT -11%25. NVCN -9%25. JCAP -7%25. ANTH -6%25. CODI -6%25.

09:53 am Curtis M : MEMBER NOTICE: Thursday Trade Room – lead trader and moderator will be intermittently unavailable due to media interviews.

11:37 am Curtis M : Back after lunch 12:45 EST

MEMBER NOTICE: Thursday Trade Room – lead trader and moderator will be intermittently unavailable due to media interviews.

Stock Chat-room Trading Transcript:

Miscellaneous chatter is removed.

09:18 am Curtis M : S&P +0.12%.10-yr -0.28%.Euro -0.76% vs. dollar.Crude +0.92% to $50.22.Gold -0.24% to $1,174.75.
09:19 am Curtis M : Gainers: VYGR +38%. TLRD +25%. LULU +17%. CTRV +13%. AVXL +10%.Losers: SHIP -43%. OHRP -27%. HTBX -18%. HZNP -18%. IPI -12%. PBYI -11%. VRNT -11%. NVCN -9%. JCAP -7%. ANTH -6%. CODI -6%.
09:35 am Curtis M : $IDXG 76%
09:36 am Curtis M : $COOL 57%
09:37 am Curtis M : $COOL Long 5.08 1000 shares for fun
09:39 am Curtis M : $COOL out 5.44
09:42 am Idiyah G : I held out $COOL 5.72
09:43 am Curtis M : nice
09:49 am Curtis M : $COOL May washout snap back here
09:54 am carol b : super cool
10:12 am Curtis M : 196% Halt $IDXG
10:22 am Curtis M : $IDXG 157%, $COOL 57%, $TLRD 39%, $MJPI 28%, $DRAM 25%, $VYGR 20%, $LULU 17%, $PHMD 16%, $CIEN $FGP $CVI $BPMC $VNR $LITE $EW
10:36 am Curtis M : $IDXG 227% wow
10:37 am Rocky D : I played it for profit – looking at VIX
10:47 am Sandy S : $NVAX strong action
11:17 am Curtis M : RUSSIA SEES RISK THAT NON-OPEC MEETING ON DEC 10 COULD BE MOVED DUE TO QUESTIONS THAT HAVE ARISEN – TASS. RTRS. #OOTT
11:26 am Curtis M : $PTIE 8% jiggy
11:36 am Curtis M : $RNVA
11:36 am Curtis M : Taking lunch back at 12:45 EST
02:15 pm Curtis M : sBack from lunch and media interviews sorry guys and gals
02:22 pm Curtis M : $WYNN -7.3%, $MPEL -6.1%, $LVS -5.5%
02:26 pm Mathew Waterfall : Friendly reminder to use stops. Out the rest of my MGM Dec16 30c’s at .77. Currently trading .205
02:26 pm Mathew Waterfall : Had a trailing stop set and got hit on the way down with that massive flush
02:33 pm Mathew Waterfall : SDLP great strength today. Picked up a bit at 3.76. Wish I had more
02:36 pm Mathew Waterfall : You will appreciate this. Copied from another group
02:36 pm Mathew Waterfall : basically “new rules could open the gold market to 1.6 billion muslims”apparently they can’t buy goldhttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-rules-for-gold-investing-may-open-the-market-to-16-billion-muslims-2016-12-07
02:56 pm Curtis M : long $XIV 45.56 2000
02:56 pm Curtis M : thx mathew
03:44 pm Curtis M : 46.048 out $XIV 2000 prob early
03:58 pm Curtis M : thanks guys and gals!!! talk tomorow
03:58 pm Sandy S : cya!
03:59 pm Sammy T : peace! out tomorrow all
04:00 pm Curtis M : they bought that dip lol

Article Topics: Compound Trading, Trading Lessons, Results, Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Chat Room, Trading Results, $COOL, $IDXG, $XIV, $GOLD, $USDJPY, $USOIL, $WTIC, $NATGAS, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $VIX, $IMNP, $ANTH

Dec 2016

Friday Dec 9, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI live chart algo target report.

Algo Targets Update:

The algorithm targets have been hitting with regularity and the target for Friday Dec 9 at 13:00 is now in sight. The price of crude $USOIL is intraday at 51.17 and is moving along the algo lnes toward the targets. Below are links to the live charting of my algorithm.

IMPORTANT NOTICES:

MULTI-USERS: Institutional platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.

LIVE CHARTS: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.

24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24hr crude oil trade room.

PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-ver existing members wll be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.

FX: $USOIL $WTI Live Algo Target Oil Chart on TradingView:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/0MA1qwDa-On-its-way-to-another-algo-target-hit-Crude-algo-intra/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mfV4vCoW/

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants:

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

How My Algorithm Works and Availability:

I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).

Conclusion:

Watch my Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.

EPIC the Oil Algo

Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Algo, Targets

Dec 2016

My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday Dec 8, 2016 in Chatroom. $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $SILVER, $SLV, $USOIL, $WTI, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $VIX, $NATGAS … more.

Welcome to the Thursday Wall Street trading short day session!

Important Notices

Lead Trader and Moderator / Software Engineer: Curtis and Sartaj are doing a number of media interviews between now and Dec 30 – today they have some to do so they will be intermittent in the room but will watch activity while in their interviews.

Price Increases: So we have had a few people now ask for the inaugral pricing on EPIC the algo (now that they know it includes his upcoming 24 hour futures trading room). Do me a favor if you’re already a member of one of our services get in on the pricing you are considering because the prices will regularly increase as the algos development. Just saying to be fair – it’s not like a normal trade room at a hundred bucks for a trade room – our proprietary algos wll go up in price for sure as I stated EPIC would in short order and I think it went from 199 month to 599 a month now (or maybe more I haven’t checked). Anyway… just thought I’d say it cause of the inquiries.

Algorithmic Charting and Trading Room: Some have asked us if we will continue to share algorithmic charting (such as EPIC’s) – the answer per the website is no – sure charting…. but necessarily the algorithmic charting. The charting in the room itself doesn’t do you much good anyway without the morning report from EPIC and various other things / notices we send our algo subs. So no, if you want the algo charting and the explanations etc they are a separate sub rate. The rate paid for the trading room is like any other trading room basic service – the algo charting shared at any given time is simply a bonus I suppose and will vary from algo to algo depending on where they are in development process.

Market Outlook:

Dips on $GOLD are being bought vs.selling the rips (so this by default plays in to $SILVER) $NATGAS has come off some from important resistance I alerted. $USOIL $WTI is dialed in with EPIC the Oil Algo perfect (THERE WAS A DIRECT HIT ON HIS PREDICTED TARGET FROM LAST WEEK YESTERDAY) so machines have been on since mid November break-out (so this makes trading oil related easier for me) and $SPY has continued its upward trend as we posted predicts on since before election. Watching markets for a pull back (as noted previous) sometime near or just after Christmas (it seems we have a Santa Claus rally). And that brings me to momo stocks and rotation therein, looks like a fun two weeks setting up here.

$GOLD, Chart

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $VYGR 29%, $TLRD 25%, $LULU 16%, $CTRV 15%, $NMM 9%, $AVXL 8%, $BPMX 7%, $IMNP, $PHMD, $TNXP, $BDSI, $NAVB, $EARS I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $EEM (wow did I nail that call and didn’t trade it), $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades: I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Outlook: As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

$SPY The Christmas Fibonacci Express. Keep Christmas Merry and don’t stand on the tracks

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Outlook: Our algorithm alerted me to a buy signal yesterday and it was a good signal – I didn’t trade it though.

Watch for volatility to rise on a trend – even if $SPY is still rising – volatility is a great indicator for what’s around the corner.

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

US Dollar may come off in to downtrend soon – seeing some areas of global markets that are becoming interesting here. Watch emerging markets close too!

Pre previous: Inflection point. No clear direction. $USD/JPY not backing off yet. Our $DXY algo had 100.50 as a PT so I’m watching. Lots of fundamentals at work here and geo.

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

$USD/JPY Caution Gold bulls – it isn’t broken and we’ve been telling our members all along. Our US Dollar algorithm has been hitting very consistently as has our Gold algorithm and we don’t think it’s time to go long Gold yet unless you do it as a tight trade because you will inevitably get some upside room here soon but we are concerned about a pull back and maybe even a lower level trade – look at Rosie the Algo Twitter feed if you don’t know what I am talking about.

My Trading Plan for Gold:

Waiting for a long trade confirmation in Gold.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Silver $SL_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

My Plan for Trading Silver:

Per previous;

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock).

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F)

Crude is trading within its range. Until it breaks its recent highs it isn’t bullish and until it breaks its recent lows – same thing. So I will trade the range if at all.

Outlook: Per previous – trading range.

Trading Plan: Oil equities.

Natural Gas $NG_F : $NATGAS (, $UGAZ, $DGAZ):

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted. We’ll see what happens.

Study:

Watch that $SKLN wash out snap back trade on YouTube I posted if you want to learn your indicators!

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS

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Pre-Market Newsletter Monday Dec 12 $SDRL $USOIL $WTIC $AKAO $DVAX $HMY $GLD $GDX $SLV $NG_F $USD/JPY $SPY $VIX …

Weekly Swing Trade Member Newsletter – Dec 12, 2016 $JUNO, $SGY, $CBMX, $USOIL, $WTIC, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $VIX

Member Oil Trade Update Mon Dec 12 Charting Algo FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO $UCO $SCO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP)

Post Market Fri Dec 9 $IDXG, $SDRL, $XIV, $USOIL, $WTIC, $GLD, $SLV, $SPY. $DXY, $VIX…

Why our Stock Algorithms are Different Than Most

Why our Stock Algorithms are Different Than Most

Pre-Market Newsletter Friday Dec 9 $IDXG, $AEM, $TBIO, $GLD $GDX $SLV $USOIL $WTIC $NG_F $USD/JPY $SPY $VIX …

Pre-Market Newsletter Friday Dec 9 $IDXG, $AEM, $TBIO, $GLD $GDX $SLV $USOIL $WTIC $NG_F $USD/JPY $SPY $VIX …

Member Oil Trade Update Fri Dec 9 Crude Oil Algo FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Post Market Thur Dec 8 $COOL, $IDXG, $XIV, $USD/JPY, $GLD, $USOIL, $WTIC, $SLV, $SPY…

Crude Oil Trade Live Chart Algo Target Update Friday Dec 9 3:58 AM FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, DWT, $CL_F, CL)

Pre-Market Newsletter Thursday Dec 8. $GOLD $GLD $SILVER $SLV $USOIL $WTIC $NATGAS $USD/JPY $SPY $VIX … more.

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