16
Nov 2016

Oil Trading Chart Blog Update Nov 16. Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (EPIC) , , , , , , , , , , , Epic the Algo

Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F) Chart and Algorithm Observations

November 15, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report.

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report. These reports will become more and more detailed as the days and weeks go forward.

How My Algorithm Works and Availability:

I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (many – up to fifty at any given time) and simple math calculations relating to price, volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots and other factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo integration – only math. Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a trader’s edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. I am not an automated bot or high frequency type algorithm. Please review about my algorithm process and about my oil algorithm story. My charting and alpha algo targets / algo trenlines are free to the public until Dec 1, 2016 and after Dec 1, 2016 will only be made available to subscribers here. Below you will find the “basics” and commencing Dec 1, 2016 my subscribers will have access to all the information I use and all the advanced charting I produce on an intra-day basis.

At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 45.33 (4:2 AM ET Nov 16, 2016). Some thoughts to advance you trading edge…

Crude, Oil, $WTI, $USOIL

Crude algo intra work sheet 422 AM ET Nov 16, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Overview

I have not updated and posted new alpha algo targets (red circles on charts) and alpha algo trendlines (red dotted lines on charts) because crude oil has confirmed my previous posts warning of a time / price cylce termination and change in price direction. See my Twitter feed for posts on this subject.

My last two blog posts explained what to look for in this possible new crude oil uptrend in price – please review them.

In recent trading the uptrend has been confirmed by price pinching out from between the two alpha algo lines,  breaching the 200 day on the 1 hour and significant diagonal trend line resistance (blue lines) and horizontal resistance (purple lines).Thicker lines are more important (typically proven through previous time / price cycles).

AT TIME OF WRITING HOWEVER, PRICE HAS COME BACK UNDER THE IMPORTANT TRENDLINE SUPPORT – WATCH THIS CLOSELY (see chart above).

So there are TWO STEPS now for ABSOLUTE CONFIRMATION for my algorithm to produce new alpha targets (which is my best contribution to a trader’s edge)… they are 1) regaining that trendline support and 2) the test of time and price at Tuesday 4:30 PM (done), Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday 1:00 PM EST.

Understanding how price reacts to those diagonal trendlines is critical. Please refer to my last two oil trading blog post explaining how these diagonal trendlines affect the trading price of crude oil. Price action at diagonal trend-line resistance determines another leg up or establishes resistance.

Pivots and Fibonacci

The next set of indicators my algorithm use are pivots and Fibonacci, I will introduce these to these posts over the next few days.

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond (at these pictured) with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and why they move from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading oil. We will cover this in much more detail in the trading room and we will endeavor to start posting video blogs on You Tube etc soon for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion

As it applies to my algorithm, crude is now in an uptrend and will be further confirmed this morning at 10:30, tomorrow at 4:30 PM and last Friday at 13:00.

You can expect new alpha algo targets for those times and alpha algo trendlines at latest Friday from my algorithm.

That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

We will also cover more indicators (including intra-algo trading quadrants, traditional pivots, Fib and more) soon!

See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room!

EPIC the Oil Algo

Article Topics: Trading, Stocks, Wall Street, Chat Room, Algorithm, Charts, Indicators, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F

16
Nov 2016

Post Market Tues Nov 15 $TWLO, #OIL, $UWTI, $GDX and more.

Post Market Report (Trade Results) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades / Alerts for Tuesday Nov 15, 2016  $TWLO, $UWTI, OIL, $GDX, USD/JPY, $TLT, $DSX, $SHIP, $DRYS and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive (we start sharing videos soon – just one more thing on the to-do list).

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

Overview Perspective of Chart Room, Trades and Alerts:

Today for me was a scalping day… worked moderately well. With a goal of 1% minimum per day (preferably 3%) I’m easily on track since the beta start of our trading room a couple weeks back (1% per day 10k to 1.14MM in 26 mos compounded).

Primary lessons I learned that may help your trades…

  1. When EPIC the Oil Algo says something I’m still challenged to listen (it’s just math but wow accurate). Most recently I’m referring to the posts on EPIC’s feed last Thursday cancelling targets because the change in trend. The mistake I made was giving too much credence to the upward resistance points on the traditional charting. In other words, had I just taken an entry at the lower range of oil trade when EPIC had signalled the time / price cycle change was at hand and held that position I would now be up big. But I didn’t, I’ve been scalping  #OIL using $UWTI between support and resistance – and of course doing that makes it almost impossible to gain what you would have if only you traded the range from the bottom support and held. I am still up – but not anything like I would be. NOW, to be clear, when EPIC publishes the new alpha algo targets soon I have become comfortable trading those… so my hold at support areas in a range becomes more assertive. So even I am learning how to use EPIC’s math as an edge – and trusting that math – but it has been spot on so I’m getting there.
  2. $TWLO – for me this was a swing account (my larger account) trade and normally I’ll hammer down when I have a conviction on a trade and not snipe but swing. But when I entered $TWLO trade today I didn’t like the price action and cut early… it did come off after that exit so that part was done right as a scalp and it was a win but after hours it trended from approx. 34.65 to 35.65 range. So what’s the lesson? My thesis was correct and it was a swing so allowing short frame trading affect that conviction on a swing is simply nonsense.
$TWLO

$TWLO Trending After Market Hours

Trading Chat Room Transcript 

08:44 am Curtis Melonopoly : Morning!
08:44 am Curtis Melonopoly : https://compoundtrading.com/pre-market-newsletter-tuesday-nov-15-usoil-wti-dxy-vix-gld-gold-slv-silver-spy/
08:45 am Curtis Melonopoly : That was morning trading plan.
08:45 am Curtis Melonopoly : Here is EPIC the Oil Algo Update – must read so you know what’s happening in here today. https://compoundtrading.com/oil-trading-chart-update-nov-15-crude-oil-fx-usoil-wti-uwti-dwti-uso-uco-cl_f/
08:50 am Curtis Melonopoly : Top % Gainers: $SHIP 34%, $TOPS 26%, $DRYS 22%, $ESEA 22%, $SINO 14%, $RPRX $AAP $NOG $NM $VKTX $JD $UWTI $PWE $CTRV $MTL $UGAZ
09:20 am Curtis Melonopoly : Gainers: SHIP +40%. TOPS +35%. DRYS +24%. ESEA +21%. SAEX +13%. NMM +15%. AAP +14%. RPRX +12%. SINO +12%. ORIG +9%. JD +8%. NM +8%. GNK +8%. OCUL +6%. SALT +6%.
09:20 am Curtis Melonopoly : Losers: SYN -35%. BETR -21%. TSRO -10%. SSYS -10%. CRBP -6%. RIO -6%. NOK -6%. DKS -6%. BBL -5%.
09:23 am Curtis Melonopoly : http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-actions-anthem-fortinet-harley-130800133.html
09:29 am GSCT . : COuld be a tad louder
09:34 am Curtis Melonopoly : Long $UWTI Small account 800 share 18.47 risky in first 30 mins
09:39 am Curtis Melonopoly : Out small gain 18.525 reentering soon

Win #1 for hotdogs and beers .25% +-
09:55 am Curtis Melonopoly : Back in 10 while oil consolidates
09:58 am Curtis Melonopoly : 18.745 Long $UWTI 800 Share small account will hammer down with swing account if continues to confirm
10:01 am Curtis Melonopoly : Running scans – back in a bit
10:16 am Curtis Melonopoly : $UWTI out 18.958 800 share small acct win – will re enter

Win #2 for 1.2% +-
10:22 am Curtis Melonopoly : Running scans
10:33 am Curtis M : If you learn anything here let the Twitter land peeps know plz thx
10:34 am Curtis M : buy order ready on $UWTI
10:52 am Curtis Melonopoly : back in 10
10:58 am Curtis M : 18.649 800 share uwti small account
11:03 am Curtis Melonopoly : You guys have been separated in to two rooms again – Sartaj will connect the two rooms soon lol
11:08 am Curtis M : We have sme coding issues… 3 rooms split you guys are staying with me for today ‘ fixed tonight
11:18 am Curtis M : Out $UWtI 18.77 800 shares

Win #3 for .7% +-

11:29 am Mathew Waterfall : Got in NE calls and CHK common right after the bell yesterday. Small cap oil should be just getting started
11:30 am Mathew Waterfall : Don’t forget about /CL contract roll coming up though. That messes with futures pricing something fierce
11:33 am Curtis M : Thanks Mathew forgot
11:34 am Curtis M : going for an Americano b 20 to 30 mins
11:35 am Curtis M : Sartaj just messaged and said he may have split rooms up over lunch or at latest in morning
11:35 am Curtis M : back in 20
11:51 am Curtis M : ok back scanning for afternoon
11:51 am Curtis M : Sartaj says splinter groups in other rooms likely not back till tomorrow when fixed
11:52 am Curtis M : Crude failed at res
11:53 am Mathew Waterfall : What about $DSX?
11:54 am Curtis M : Looking at $SHIP close
11:54 am Curtis M : Ill check DSX
11:55 am Mathew Waterfall : Good price action there. I’m in some calls from the open and working nicely. Just saw a huge buy come across as well
12:14 pm Mathew Waterfall : I wish I would have bought more lol. Always a regret
12:16 pm Curtis M : 45.60 heavy resistance on $USOIL FYI
12:16 pm Mathew Waterfall : I will only play through options. They move too fast to have an undefined risk
12:17 pm Mathew Waterfall : They gap so hard that even equities can leave you out if you’re on the wrong side
12:33 pm Curtis M : running scans for a bit
12:34 pm Curtis M : Is $DSX on your screen
12:34 pm Curtis M : in the room
12:38 pm Curtis M : runnung scans…. $DSX looks decent still
01:00 pm Curtis M : $USOIL $WTI coming up to resistance, $DXY coming to resistance, $SPY coming to top of recent range, $VIX at bottom of recent range
01:05 pm Curtis M : Looking at $GDX
01:09 pm Curtis M : Long $GDX tight leash 800 shares small account
01:09 pm GSCT . : /CL feels toppy. Do you see a reversal of trend intraday here?
01:09 pm Curtis M : GSCT did you read EPICS blog post or twitter
01:10 pm Curtis M : YEs heavy resistance
01:12 pm GSCT . : Yes.
01:12 pm Curtis M : 800 21.89 GDX small account+
01:12 pm Curtis M : Awesome lo thanks GSCT
01:12 pm Curtis M : Not trying to be cheeky just got my hands full
01:13 pm GSCT . : No worries.
01:13 pm GSCT . : Not at all.
01:14 pm GSCT . : I need to honor the trend more anyway in my trading.
01:20 pm Curtis M : what a great guy thanks
01:24 pm Mathew Waterfall : You said DWTI. So you think we reject at the next resistance point and head lower in OIL?
01:26 pm Mathew Waterfall : Thanks. Sometimes things actually work as expected lol
01:30 pm Curtis M : $DSX so clean
01:37 pm Curtis M : battleground for me here with $TLT and $USDJPY and a few other things for $GDX likely early
01:51 pm Curtis M : Small loss $GDX out 21.84

Loss #1 .25%
01:55 pm Curtis M : running scans for EOD momentum play
01:55 pm Curtis M : The $GDX $TLT Currency correlation is powerful… there´s a number of indicators ‘ but those three are tied … the turn isnt ready yet but its coming… maybe tonight…
02:02 pm Curtis M : Watching $TWLO squeeze
02:03 pm Curtis M : Swing acct 2000 shares long
02:04 pm Curtis M : $TWLO
02:07 pm GSCT . : Are those car horns there in Panama?
02:07 pm GSCT . : Scooters it sounds like.
02:09 pm GSCT . : Traffic sounds agressive there.
02:12 pm GSCT . : Hilarious.
02:13 pm Mathew Waterfall : /ES HODing
02:17 pm GSCT . : /CL poppimg
02:17 pm GSCT . : popping
02:18 pm Mathew Waterfall : Front ran that yesterday so that’s what IM hoping fo
02:18 pm Mathew Waterfall : small cap oil squeeze
02:20 pm GSCT . : I assume you have price targes or percentage goals for swings as well?
02:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : WLL Dec 10c @.25
02:22 pm Mathew Waterfall : Followed a sweeper through on those as confirmation
02:22 pm Mathew Waterfall : Loading up on small cap oil
02:22 pm Mathew Waterfall : WLL, NE, CHK, PBR
02:22 pm Mathew Waterfall : JONE, EPE, SGY on watch close
02:32 pm Mathew Waterfall : First list I’m in, second list will go on oil expansion
02:37 pm Curtis M : $TWLO out 2000 shares 34.40 with 34.26 avg buy

Win # 4 .45% +-
02:41 pm Curtis M : Ugh $GDX I knew it lol fark
02:49 pm Curtis M : LOL not sure what happened but all our equip is set up this MOnday… and there´s a ton of subscribers we re allowing in next week … we ve limited how many till gear is set up Monday… so a few more days of yup that
02:49 pm Curtis M : oil looks good fyi
02:50 pm Curtis M : pit is closed and oil doing what it is doing is good
03:05 pm Curtis M : Curious what $DRYS does after halt here
03:18 pm Curtis M : Wow last hour of the day used to be best hour…. pretty calm out there…
03:18 pm Mathew Waterfall : Shippers looking like they are breaking down. To watch
03:19 pm Curtis M : Shippers should be done soon IMO
03:19 pm Robert Norman : Amazing up move from Crude Oil today. Oo
03:20 pm Curtis M : Crude gonna rip some faces off cause meetings on deck…. could be very interesting
03:26 pm Robert Norman : Any clue what API is going to show?
03:27 pm Mathew Waterfall : Done for the day, see yall tomorrow
03:29 pm Curtis M : see ya mathew
03:29 pm Curtis M : no idea robert
03:35 pm Curtis M : Well that´s a mellow end to a market day… going to call it a night… room will stay open till 4. We will get the other guys in same room with you tomorrow too lol. Have a great night!
03:36 pm Robert Norman : Have a good one!

 

Topics: Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Chat Room, Trading Results, $TWLO, $UWTI, OIL, $GDX, USD/JPY, $TLT, $DSX, $SHIP, $DRYS

15
Nov 2016

Oil Trading Chart Blog Update Nov 15. Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (EPIC) , , , , , , , , , , , Epic the Algo

Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

November 15, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report.

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report. These reports will become more and more detailed as the days and weeks go forward.

How My Algorithm Works and Availability:

I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (many – up to fifty at any given time) and simple math calculations relating to price, volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots and other factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo integration – only math. Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a trader’s edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. I am not an automated bot or high frequency type algorithm. Please review about my algorithm process and about my algorithm story. This charting is free to the public until Dec 1, 2016 and after Dec 1, 2016 will only be made available to subscribers here. Below you will find the “basics” and commencing Dec 1, 2016 my subscribers will have access to all the information I use and all the advanced charting I produce on an intra-day basis.

At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 44.78 (7:09 AM ET Nov 15, 2016). Some thoughts…

Overview

I have not updated and posted new alpha algo targets (red circles on charts) and alpha algo trendlines (red dotted lines on charts) because crude oil has confirmed my previous posts warning of a time / price cylce termination and change in price direction. See my Twitter feed for posts on this subject.

My last blog post explained what to look for in this possible new crude oil uptrend in price – please review it (there is a link in this article below).

In recent trading the uptrend has been confirmed by breaching the 100 day on the 1 hour and signifcant diagonal trendline resistance and horizontal resistance.

 

The only step left in ABSOLUTE CONFIRMATION for my algorithm is the test of time and price at Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM (all eastern).

Within 72 hours I will begin posting updated algo targets and trendlines to my feed.

Diagonal Trend Lines (Blue) – Price

Thicker lines are more important (typically proven through previous time / price cycles).

There is a diagonal trendline at 45.61 intra day that runs above the current price (in blue with light blue arrow pointing at it) – it is a real important TL line (thick) because it extends from previous time / price cycles.

Resistance, Trendline, $USOIL, #OIL, $WTI

Overhead resistance. Diagonal Trendline (blue). Crude algo intra work sheet 657 AM ET Nov 15, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Why is this important? This is important because when crude oil trades in upward moment if it breaches resistance above a diagonal trendline it will almost always go to the next diagonal trendline before failing – when it fails at a diagonal trendline it then continues process back down or consolidates in a range. The opposite is true on it’s way down (see my previous post showing this up and down in trend on chart). THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT.

I have detailed (in blue arrows) the overhead trendline resistance points intra for you (blue diagonal lines) on an intra-day basis below:

Resistance, Oil, $USOIL, $WTI, Crude

Overhead Trendline Resistance (blue arrows). Crude algo intra work sheet 718 AM ET Nov 15, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Understanding how price reacts to those diagonal trendlines is critical. Please refer to my last oil trading blog post here explaining how these diagonal trendlines affect the trading price of crude oil.

You also have a diagonal trendline below intra-day at 42.70.

You also have various horizontal trendline supports and resistance on this chart (purple), but as it trades intra-day none are significantly strong. The thicker they are the stronger they are (extend back to previous time price cycles)

Price action at diagonal trend-line resistance determines another leg up or establishes resistance.

Pivots and Fibonacci

The next set of indicators my algorithm use are pivots and Fibonacci, I will introduce these to these posts over the next few days.

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond (at these pictured) with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and why they move from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading oil. We will cover this in much more detail in the trading room and we will endeavor to start posting video blogs on You Tube etc soon for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion

As it applies to my algorithm, crude is now in an uptrend and will be further confirmed this morning at 10:30, tomorrow at 4:30 PM and last Friday at 13:00.

You can expect new alpha algo targets for those times and alpha algo trendlines over the next 72 hours from my algorithm

That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

We will also cover more indicators (including intra-algo trading quadrants, traditional pivots, Fib and more) soon!

See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room!

EPIC the Oil Algo

Article Topics: Trading, Stocks, Wall Street, Chat Room, Algorithm, Charts, Indicators, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F

14
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Tuesday Nov 15 ($USOIL $WTI, $DXY, $VIX, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver, $SPY… more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Updated 8:17 AM EST

My Stock Trading Plan for Tuesday November 15, 2016 in Chatroom.

Welcome to the Tuesday Wall Street trading session! The futures bulls are alive and well and oil traded positive!

Specific to starting with more advanced traditional charting and algorithmic charting… the current market conditions are not the best time to do that… but I’ve started with EPIC the Oil Algo posts to get us started and we’ll introduce more and more of our algo work over the coming days and weeks between now and end of November.

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day)

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists

8:03 EST

S&P +0.12%.

10-yr +0.2%.

Euro +0.27% vs. dollar.

Crude +2.86% to $44.56.

Gold +0.25% to $1,224.75.

Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: $TSRO, $CTRE Will Update Before Market Open or Refer to Chat Room

Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $ESEA 74%, $SHIP 31%, $RPRX 15%, $AAP 14%, $TOPS $SINO $JD $PTN $UWTI $PWE $AAL $UCO $WLL $DAL $CHK $DNR $FCAU  Will Update Before Market Open or Refer to Chat Room

Other Watch-List(s): Airlines. Shippers: $DRYS $EGLE $SHIP $SINO $TOPS $GNRT Oil: $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY Financials: $FAZ

Regular Watch-List: Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS)

My bias is still to all time highs – although it has struggled some. The recent lift in oil may help. But I also expect considerable volatility during it’s run to ATH and/or shortly thereafter. The US Dollar is going to cause issues IMO as will other global market / credit / bond issues over the horizon. In that, I see a run in Gold and Silver soon.

My trading plan with $SPY: I expect volatility to get crushed and I will likely follow that trend with $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

$SPY

$SPY 107 AM Nov 15

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

The US Dollar continues its rally at time of writing. I expect it to continue in its symmetry relative to last year before Christmas also. Anyway, my Twitter feed had me posting this run since late July and there is no reason now to think it’s over. When it is, it is.

I’m watching the Peso and Trump’s messaging… also watching $FXY for clues with Gold and Miner’s.

My trading plan with $DXY: I may take a long on $UUP if I can lock in a range that makes sense but other than that I’m sitting tight. WHEN IT DOES reach it’s full symmetrical extension I will look at plays for the downside.

$DXY US Dollar Index

$DXY US Dollar Index. 109 AM EST Nov 15, 2016

Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

So yesterday I posted – and this is still my position.

“$VIX 315 AM EST Nov 14, 2016 – Likely to get crushed well below diagonal trend-line and right down to previous lows.”

$VIX

$VIX Diagonal Trendline 112 AM Nov 15, 2016

My trading plan with $VIX (volatility) is to run with $XIV at edges of range (if I can catch them) using $VIX and $SPY trading action.

Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

So I have been really patient here and I hope the train doesn’t leave with-out me. Tonight I’m working on oil small cap charting…. but it’s time to start on Gold, Miner and Silver small cap company charting now soon too IMO to get ready.

My trading plan with Gold: Wait for the buy trigger to hit. If it doesn’t reassess range then.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

As with Gold I’m awaiting buy trigger on Silver… I did try and take a $USLV trade on Monday as a tester but stopped out so I’ll continue to watch.

My trading plan with Silver: Wait for the buy trigger to hit. If it doesn’t reassess range then.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

8:10 AM Update: EPIC the OIL Algo Blog Post Published.

If you are trading oil in the room be sure to always check EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter Feed for updates and recent reports etc.

Crude took off today in an uptrend and is about to test the 200 MA on the 1 HR. We’ll see how it handles that. Now that it is in an uptrend, and if it continues, within a few days EPIC the Oil Algo will have new alpha algo targets and alpha algo trend-lines for us.

In summary your trading ranges are as follows (as of 124 AM Nov 15, 2016):

Diagonal intra trend lines:  Resistance – 45.62. Supports – 43.16 / 42.77. (change intra with diagonal blue lines).

Horizontal trend lines: Resistance – Many. Support – Many. Refer to chart. (purple lines).

Moving average: Resistance at 200 MA on the 1 HR. Intra is at 44.54 (this will change intra)

Alpha algo lines: Refer to chart (red dotted diagonal).

Alpha algo targets for week: At time of writing EPIC has not released any updates.

Traditional chart pivots: Next segment of publishing from EPIC coming soon.

Traditional Fibonacci: Next segment of publishing from EPIC coming soon.

$USOIL, $WTI, OIL

Overhead Resistance Test Coming 200 Day on 1 Hour Chart (pink line). Crude algo intra work sheet 126 AM ET Nov 15, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Trader notes on oil.

My plan trading oil is to take a long position in $UWTI in my small account if the support holds and there is corresponding price action / volume. I will sell in to strength and re-enter as needed and I will sell VERY FAST if support is breached. If oil gets proper lift then I will consider entering in size long with my large swing account,

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Study:

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

GL!

Curtis

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom

14
Nov 2016

Post Market Mon Nov 14 $THC, $FAZ, $USLV, $UWTI, $XIV, $DRYS and more.

Post Market Report (Trade Results) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades for Monday Nov 14, 2016. $THC, $FAZ, $USLV, $USOIL, #OIL, $UWTI, $XIV, $DRYS and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive (we start sharing videos soon – just one more thing on the to-do list).

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

Overview Perspective of Chart Room, Trades and Alerts: 

I’m really pleased with the first two weeks in our beta start-up chat room. There’s some good peeps, it’s a smaller group for now but that’s good – it allows for more chatter than you could have with a larger room (which is good in this instance – so if you’re attending our room please feel free to communicate your views in the room – when there’s more in the room we’ll just scale back as needed). Much of the activity you don’t see in the transcript below because of course the charts are visual and the broadcast is by voice… but it’s going well and some of the group are getting involved and we’re starting to build on some momo here. And the market’s starting to cooperate:)

So from Friday my lessons were:

The reality is some basic disciplines went out the window. Simple stuff like trade the width or in other words the pivots (the range)… but trade them with price and volume momentum. Simple… simple… stuff. Money is made intra trading the outside ranges with price movement with volume momentum and cut quick if wrong. Really simple. So simple it seems we can find ourselves forgetting that. But truth is just that will get you 60 – 70% success ratio in my experience. So in short…. it doesn’t matter if there was a pull-back or the bonds or what the reason is… if you don’t trade the outside range when you have price confirmation (movement in the right direction) along with volume then YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE – IT IS A GAMBLE – pure and simple.

And guess what! I actually corrected these issues – it helped the market was more predictable too – but I did execute the simple rules I was not respecting on Friday. I cut faster, I protected equity, I didn’t get the run-ups you would normally expect – but I protected equity.

THE BIG PLAYS OF THE DAY for me were

  1. $THC – The exit of 4/5 s of my $THC swing from my large swing account. This type of play (which also went well with $HTZ) is a simple play – and I far too often forget to utilize it. In short the play works like this: A) You simply wait for an equity to have a premarket downdraft due to something like poor earnings or whatever. B) It needs to be an equity that you know has managed money in it and preferrably one that you know managed money will buy on the downdraft. C) Take your entry after market open when there is increasing volume (preferably before they run it up) D) Hopefully you time your entry so that you get lift quick and can set your stop and then just put your feet up and babysit it until it gets desired target based on chart (typically gap fill over a week or so). Of course it’s more complicated than that… but those are the basics – one of my most successful swing trading set-ups. And I hate to put it on the team in the room – but if you see that I’m not paying attention to this play in the mornings please please let me know if you see any equities that fit this formula!
  2. Both $SPY and $USOIL $WTI started to respond to dips and price action more normal like. What I mean by this in short (for example) is oil… oil at it’s outside range (pivots or support) should respond to buying price action – but oil has been dead for many days… today though it responded and tonight it’s alive in futures – so this is big news (being that I hit 97% of my oil entries (using the leveraged ETN $UWTI) and my total average with all plays (in small scalp compound accout and large swing account is 80% so oil is VERY IMPORTANT to my trading). And $SPY… well it started to respond properly too… I use $XIV which I know isn’t a direct correlation but I use that leveraged $ETN in such a way that I take advantage of a beatin down $VIX when $SPY gets on a rip. And being that I can compound an account 1% a day just with this simple afternoon $XIV play daily it is very important. NOW…. in both instances (especially $SPY) the response (price action and volume) wasn’t completely back to its normal state… but it was much, much better.
  3. The big trade I missed was shippers last few days (was on it with it on the watchlist I posted to the trading room yesterday – I just didn’t take it) . 08:53 am Curtis Melonopoly : Misc. Watch-list: $UGAZ (Chart), $C (Bank), $MNST (Bottom Play), $DRYS (Shipper), $THC (Bottom Play), $TPL (Trump Play), $JJC (Continued Copper Break-Out?), $AUMN (Favorite Penny play w / Gold and Silver break-out).

For me… I’m just pumped because oil is on a rip now in futures so it’s alive now and when that happens me and my little friend EPIC the Oil Algo bank. So the coming days here should be very good fishing!

DO NOT MISS THE MORNING NEWSLETTER!!!! OIL IS ALIVE!

Chatroom Transcript:

08:57 am Curtis M : Good morning! Running Scans c u before open!
09:24 am Curtis M : Momentum Open Watch: $CRBP $HAR $EBIO $OBCI $TWER and more.
09:24 am Curtis M : Crude hit support and bounced
09:28 am Curtis M : Oil Gold Silver ETE CRBP
09:34 am Curtis Melonopoly : Scanning be right back
09:42 am GSCT . : Can you turn up your volume? You’re way low for me.
09:47 am Curtis Melonopoly : LOng $XIV short leash
09:57 am Curtis M : OUt small gain looking for re’entry $XIV
10:19 am susan w : Curtis, are you still silent? Haven’t heard anything much since the open. Thanks
10:20 am susan w : ok, heard you. Thanks
10:26 am Curtis M : Going to go see what´s shaking here with $VIX and run some scans and set up for some charting and algo plays and afternoon plays….
10:31 am Curtis M : Yeild curve is flatening some… some.. so bulls may run today and tomorrow but in to Wed looks suspicious…. anyway should be a pull back coming over next 72 hours and then w´ll see
10:31 am Curtis M : going to run some scans
10:31 am Curtis M : back in 20
11:00 am Curtis M : Long $FAZ small account
11:00 am GSCT . : Think /CL tests LOD here?
11:00 am Curtis M : It may waiting
11:03 am Curtis M : Fill $FAZ 25.76 Long Small Account
11:07 am GSCT . : DWTI 91.86 -92.96 +1%
11:17 am Curtis M : Look for the miners to perk up
11:30 am Curtis M : Oil has to regain support above purple line
11:34 am Curtis M : Going for early lunch going to prep for afternoon and some algo work in the room
11:35 am Curtis M : Back in half an hour ‘ holding $FAZ
11:38 am Curtis M : Ok set stop for lunch on $FAZ 25.30 lol catcha mid lunch hour
12:03 pm Curtis M : $NUGT got it´s pop like I thought it would but $FAZ didn´t
12:23 pm Curtis M : resetting charts back in 10 for afternoon
12:27 pm Curtis M : Okay so I nailed that $NUGT turn around so hopefully $FAZ hits here soon
12:28 pm Curtis M : Missed a few of the momos this morning but after late last week I thought best to take it easy on step at a time
12:31 pm Curtis M : scanning… back in a few
12:34 pm Curtis M : Ok so $FAZ has a bounce
12:36 pm Curtis M : My $FAZ got a bounce and $THC swing having a good day!
12:40 pm susan w : Curtis – how about USLV?
12:42 pm Curtis M : We can cover gold and silver soon here
12:43 pm Curtis M : Looking for exit on $THC swing here
12:45 pm Curtis M : Out $THC on a really decent swing account gain! 16.62 scaling out now
12:49 pm Mathew W : THC BULLISH WISEGUY ACTION: Jan17 23.0 CALLS $23k BET OPENING MULTI SWEEP THC=16.43 Ref 0.6x Usual Vol
12:49 pm Curtis M : $FAZ out small gain, $XIV snall gain earlier, $THC out 2/5 s
12:51 pm Curtis M : Out 4 / 5 of $THC holding 1 / 5 on further swing
12:54 pm Curtis M : Back in 2 mins looking at Silver quick
01:01 pm susan w : Because JNUG was moving and was thinking silver would move soon since miners were moving
01:03 pm susan w : AUMN green too Curtis
01:03 pm Curtis M : nice lol
01:05 pm susan w : My goodnes, IONS went crazy
01:08 pm Curtis M : yes lol watched $IONS
01:08 pm Mathew W : Oil getting a boost ehre as well finally
01:08 pm Mathew W : bounced off of the 61.8 fib perfectly
01:08 pm Curtis M : Long 600 shares $USLV 14.14 small account
01:15 pm Curtis M : $USLV out at 14.06 protecting small account will look for re enter 48.00 loss ish
01:16 pm Curtis M : Running scans be right back
01:25 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Back in 5 calling a few oil traders and back to review oil algo
01:46 pm Curtis M : Long $UWTI 16.83 700 shares small account
01:47 pm Mathew W : 43.53 next res on /cl
02:07 pm susan w : curtis, AUMN jumpy
02:22 pm GSCT . : Scalped $UWTI 17.10 – 17.19
02:22 pm GSCT . : Early but needed to take some profit
02:23 pm Curtis M : Nice!
02:23 pm GSCT . : Thanks. Very hard to exit with Limit orders on Oil.
02:23 pm GSCT . : Will use pre-set sells. Or what do you recommend?
02:30 pm Curtis M : Out 16.89 small acount $UWTI small win Beers and hotdogs
02:32 pm GSCT . : Thanks!
02:34 pm Curtis M : Back in 10 or so for one more today hopefully ‘… really pumped that oil got positive.. watch red algo line
02:49 pm Curtis M : Long $XIV 38.72 small account 400 share taking trades around possible turn around and will size in with swing account if confirmed
02:50 pm GSCT . : /CL ramping a bit ehre
02:51 pm GSCT . : And Gold aftesr a new bottom shortly Curtis?
02:51 pm GSCT . : after
02:52 pm GSCT . : DRYS Jesus.
02:56 pm GSCT . : Don’t see a ton of upside XIV here
02:57 pm GSCT . : Bring it
03:02 pm GSCT . : Great call Curtis.
03:05 pm GSCT . : 500 shares?
03:06 pm Curtis M : $XIV out 38.91 small gain its a start 400 shares small account
03:06 pm GSCT . : WOuld like to learn more about elasric band effect a we go along here.
03:08 pm GSCT . : HTZ was wicked.
03:11 pm GSCT . : How long has the market been off cycle? 3 months? 6?
03:13 pm Mathew W : Got stopped out of my $REN position earlier.
03:13 pm Mathew W : Hate that
03:16 pm GSCT . : How long has the market been abnormal to what you like to see is what I meant.
03:23 pm GSCT . : Thanks for the great calls today Curtis.
03:24 pm Curtis M : Have a great night!
03:24 pm Edward J : Thanks Curtis
03:24 pm Curtis M : Watch newsletter in premarket really close in morning for confirmation of oil rally, SPY rally and VIX stomp…. and then if so we´ll pivot to metals when that´s done.
03:24 pm Curtis M : You bet take care
03:46 pm Curtis M : Wow still selling in to strength no confidence to hold
03:57 pm Curtis M : Oil may go on a rip tonight and many short squeezes in small cap oil tomorrow if it does

Best and stay blessed.

Curt

Topics: Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Chat Room, Trading Results

14
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 14 ($USOIL $WTI, $DXY, $VIX, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver, $SPY… more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Monday November 14, 2016 in Chatroom.

Welcome to the Monday trading session! The futures bulls are alive and well and it should be a good week!

Admittedly, there are rips in certain areas that concern me (like Copper and the US Dollar – too much too fast)… so it seems watch and see and run with the bulls when most logically limited risk. Oil hasn’t ripped yet and Gold and Silver are down. Natural Gas is still confusing me (watching). Bond pain wow, just wow. So be careful everywhere.

Additionally transports last week flying relative to S&P500 and Dow Jones Trucking index hit 52 week high, chemicals look like they’re going to rip, junk bonds last week highest level vs Treasury Bonds since Dec last year $HYG / $TLT, financials $XLF showed relative strength, Saudi Arabia was on a rip $TASI, private REIT market was wrecked, and value stocks vs growth stocks are in break-out $IWD $IWF.

Also as I write the $FTSE just opened and went on a straight rip vertical and US futures are strong.

Specific to starting with more advanced traditional charting and algorithmic charting… the current market conditions are not the best time to do that… but I’ve started with an EPIC the Oil Algo post last evening and we’ll introduce more and more of our algo work over the coming days and weeks between now and end of November.

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day)

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists

Pre-market Decliners: $DVAX $RSO $MNKD $CETV $BRZU $DGAZ $JNUG $CXRX $NUGT

Pre-Market Gainers Watch-list: $CRBP $EBIO $OCUL $MENT $MTL $PTCT $MDCO

Misc. Watch-list: $ETE (Trump play? Chart), $FCX (Trump play ?), $VRX (Continuation?), $UGAZ (Chart), $C (Bank), $MNST (Bottom Play), $DRYS (Shipper), $THC (Bottom Play), $TPL (Trump Play), $JJC (Continued Copper Break-Out?), $AUMN (w / Gold and Silver break-out), $EPI (Chart).

Regular Watch-List: Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS)

My bias is toward all time highs on the near horizon… in fact, I think a rip is any moment… a serious rip – I’ve been posting that since before the election on my Twitter feed.

Until we get confirmation of a break-out and trend I will avoid posting pivots / Fib levels and algorithm charting because futures at time of writing look like they are blowing through the upside anyway.

My trading plan with $SPY: I expect volatility to get crushed and I will likely follow that trend with $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

The US Dollar has ripped hard – my twitter post outlines main resistance – but it may blow through those like nothing… that is yet to be seen. Here again, when things settle some we’ll work with the standard charting pivots, Fib levels and algorithmic charting (hopefully sometime this week). For now it’s watch.

The Mexican Peso seems way over done to so I’m watching. And China has pegged lowest ever I think (have’t looked yet).

I’ll be watching $FXY for clues with Gold and Miner’s.

My trading plan with $DXY: I may take a long on $UUP if I can lock in a range that makes sense.

Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

$VIX 315 AM EST Nov 14, 2016 – Likely to get crushed well below diagonal trend-line and right down to previous lows.

My trading plan with $VIX (volatility) is to run with $XIV at edges of range (if I can catch them).

Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

I have posted since the beginning of Oct that I expected an elevator down and posted buy triggers. It seems we’re almost there and a decision will have to be made if and when we get there. If we don’t get there I’ll see.

My trading plan with Gold: Wait for the buy trigger to hit. If it doesn’t reassess range then.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

Same as with Gold, I am looking for one floor down and hope I get it.

My trading plan with Silver: Wait for the buy trigge to hit. If it doesn’t reassess range then.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

Epic the Oil Algo has published his first daily report – you can find his oil trading report here.

In summary (at time of writing at 1:39 AM ET) your trading ranges are as follows:

Diagonal trend lines:  Resistance 45.68. Support 43.11 / 42.85. (change intra with diagonal blue lines).

Horizontal trend lines: Resistance 45.78. Support is 43.33 / 43.03 (purple lines).

Moving average: Resistance at 200 MA on the 1 HR.

Alpha algo lines: Refer to chart (red dotted diagonal).

Alpha algo targets for week: At time of writing EPIC has not released any updates.

Traditional chart pivots: Next segment of publishing from EPIC coming soon.

Traditional Fibonacci: Next segment of publishing from EPIC coming soon.

Trader notes on oil.

My plan trading oil is to take a long position in $UWTI in my small account if the support holds and there is corresponding price action / volume. I will sell in to strength and re-enter as needed and I will sell VERY FAST if support is breached. If oil gets proper lift (which I don’t expect until we get closer to the oil meetings – which by the way there is some news there) then I will consider entering in size long with my large swing account, HOWEVER, oil has not traded agressively for some time so this is not something I expect just yet.

Crude oil current trading range 42.85 – 45.78 (see chart).

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. Shorts – $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

The patience trick / discipline with crude is don’t go long unless you see those big volume spikes and preferrably some follow through. When the bulls and machines are in crude buying the dips you’ll know – and then it’s like a bank teller machine over and over. But it does go in cycles.

Study:

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

GL!

Curtis

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom

13
Nov 2016

Oil Trading Chart Update. Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (EPIC) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Epic the Algo

Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

November 14, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report.

Welcome to my first real report. This will be my smallest least detailed. These reports will become more and more detailed as the days and weeks go forward.

How My Algorithm Works and Availability:

I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (many – up to fifty at any given time) and simple math calculations relating to price, volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots and other factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo integration – only math. Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a trader’s edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. I am not an automated bot or high frequency type algorithm. Please review about my algorithm process and about my algorithm story. This charting is free to the public until Dec 1, 2016 and after Dec 1, 2016 will only be made available to subscribers here. Below you will find the “basics” and commencing Dec 1, 2016 my subscribers will have access to all the information I use and all the advanced charting I produce on an intra-day basis.

At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 43.32 (10:48 PM ET Nov 13, 2016). Some thoughts…

Diagonal Trend Lines (Blue) – Price

Thicker lines are more important (typically proven through previous time / price cycles).

There is a diagonal trendline at 43.11 intra day that runs just under the price (in blue with green arrow pointing at it) – it isn’t a real important TL line (thin) but a TL line nonetheless. Why is this important? Everytime the price has crossed one of these in recent trade (last few months) it means another leg down. Very important.

And there is another right below it (yellow arrow) at about 42.85. Watch them both.

Above, there is one at 45.68 intra day (light blue arrow) – important because price has been strongly rejected here.

Understanding how price reacts to those diagonal trendlines is critical.

So you have your most important diagonal trendline as resistance at 45.68 and trendline support at 42.85 / 43.11. And remember they are diagonal so they change intra.

Horizontal Trend Lines (Purple) – Price

You have support horizontal trend lines at 43.33 and 43.03 from previous time / price cycles – which are important. Other noteables are at 42.81, 41.86, 39.04, 38.33.

Most noteable resistance over-head is at 45.78 – this is important.

For now (as price trades now) your important support is 43.03 / 43.33.

There are obviously more – that you can see real-time in our trading room intra-day or over time as a subscriber (if you cannot be in the trading room) you would learn how to use the charting on your own for various trading decisions.

Moving Averages

There are many moving averages (and related disciplines – I mentioned I review around 50 indicators) that we will get in to over time… but the secret is to focus down on what currently is most affecting price so you can use it as a trading edge. It just happens that right now the 200 day on the 1 hr has become recently critical as resistance.

Price Action

Price action at horizontal trend-line resistance determines another leg up or establishes resistance.

You will notice in the bottom left hand corner that when price bounced off an alpha algo line (red dotted) and started to go up… that it sliced through those diagonal trend – lines (blue) with-out an issue – BUT when it did eventually become an issue (yellow arrows) then that established resistance and the price of oil started to trend down.

And further, every-time the price went below a diagonal trend-line (blue) it dropped faster than it otherwise was.

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond (at these pictured) with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and why they move from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading oil. We will cover this in much more detail in the trading room and we will endeavor to start posting video blogs on You Tube etc soon for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion

That seems to be a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

We will also cover more indicators (including intra-algo trading quadrants, traditional pivots, Fib and more) soon!

See you in the room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room!

EPIC the Oil Algo

 

Article Topics: Trading, Stocks, Wall Street, Chat Room, Algorithm, Charts, Indicators, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F

 

 

 

13
Nov 2016

Post Market Report Fri Nov 11

Post Market Report (Trade Results) , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades for Friday Nov 11, 2016.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive (we start sharing videos soon – just one more thing on the to-do list).

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

Overview Perspective of Trades and Alerts: Simple but BIG Lessons Here.

In general, Friday was a difficult day for me… 3 small losses – no gains. The bonds caught me off guard and caused me to re-think. Also though… the reality is some basic disciplines went out the window. Simple stuff like trade the width or in other words the pivots (the range)… but trade them with price and volume momentum. Simple… simple… stuff. Money is made intra trading the outside ranges with price movemenet with volume momentum and cut quick if wrong. Really simple. So simple it seems we can find ourselves forgetting that. But truth is just that will get you 60 – 70% success ratio in my experience. So in short…. it doesn’t matter if there was a pull-back or the bonds or what the reason is… if you don’t trade the outside range when you have price confirmation (movement in the right direction) along with volume then YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE – IT IS A GAMBLE – pure and simple.

So this coming week for me will be all about returning to the basics. When the set-up is there I will trade – if not then I will $STUDY like all of us should.

Today’s Trades And Alerts Transcript and Notes: $PTCT, $UWTI, $XIV, $EBIO, $DRYS, $JJC, $STEM

08:53 am Curtis Melonopoly : Pre-Market Gainers Watch-list: $PTCT $NVDA $MACK $JJC $RGSE $CWH $MACK $OMER $YANG $EDZ $BT $DGAZ $AMD $TVIX $DWTI $SRPT $UVXY $JNUG
08:53 am Curtis Melonopoly : Misc. Watch-list: $UGAZ (Chart), $C (Bank), $MNST (Bottom Play), $DRYS (Shipper), $THC (Bottom Play), $TPL (Trump Play), $JJC (Continued Copper Break-Out?), $AUMN (Favorite Penny play w / Gold and Silver break-out).
08:54 am Curtis Melonopoly : https://compoundtrading.com/pre-market-newsletter-nov-11-usoil-wti-oil-dxy-dollar-vix-gld-gold-natgas/
09:02 am Curtis Melonopoly : $IAU also
09:22 am Curtis Melonopoly : Good morning
09:26 am Curtis Melonopoly : $EBIO, $DRYS, $PTCT, $JJC, $STEM possible for open
09:27 am Curtis Melonopoly : And NatGAS but… unlikely
09:37 am Curtis Melonopoly : I’ll get the other crew on other server back
09:39 am Curtis Melonopoly : $PTCT in 11.03 out 10.34 small play at 300 shares – small loss on swing account

Loss # 1 for the day – small loss. Should have cut earlier.
09:53 am Curtis Melonopoly : So Watching NATGAS for long, $JDST for pull back for long, $THC for further dip to take 2nd swing entry, $XIV for exit (likely not until Tues).
09:56 am Curtis Melonopoly : Making a few calls back in a bit
09:57 am Curtis Melonopoly : Careful with $SPY could drip all day to 214.46 ish
09:57 am Curtis Melonopoly : $JDST may not get an entry it’s not waiting
10:32 am Curtis Melonopoly : https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly GOLD
10:33 am Curtis Melonopoly : https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly SILVER
10:37 am Curtis Melonopoly : Running screens – back in 10 – 20
10:38 am Curtis Melonopoly : Marked my preferred by in $JDST 34.50 area
10:38 am Curtis Melonopoly : Waiting for $IAU to finish it’s intra uptrend
10:39 am Curtis Melonopoly : NATGAS looks like a bottom but we don’t have math locked in on it.
10:39 am Curtis Melonopoly : $SPY Could see 214.50 – could – before uptrend in to Tuesday
11:00 am Curtis Melonopoly : $DXY targets https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/789420610996678656
11:10 am Curtis Melonopoly : Out of small account $XIV from yesterday – going to try and trade out of that loss (about 1.50 I’l have to check)

Loss # 2 for the day. Swing from day before. Small loss. Should have held actually. Pivots – range etc.
11:13 am Curtis Melonopoly : 37.53 fill on sell order $XIV on small account swing from yesterday
11:20 am Curtis Melonopoly : Watching $TZA for $DXY break-out possible
11:30 am Curtis Melonopoly : $UUP watch instead
11:36 am Mathew Waterfall : Would be a nice double top if it heads south from here
12:07 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Going to get a coffee back in 20 for afternoon session – tough market for me.
01:14 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Long $UWTI 17.125 avg small account
01:32 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Out $UWTI 17.03 loss

Loss # 3 for the day – for some reason I thought it was 2 – need to confirm before I post stats on my Twitter feed lol.
01:41 pm Curtis M : These markets are confused …. sitting on hands may be best.. Inflation, bonds, credit markets, currencies they´re all confused lol
01:42 pm Mathew Waterfall : Yea things are backwards all over the place. Should have gone flat earlier in the week over here. Gold, oil, bonds, all trading crazy
01:45 pm Curtis M : $XIV going up while oil tanks… ummm
01:46 pm Mathew Waterfall : Again, weird. XIV up, VIX also up. Put buying up
01:46 pm Mathew Waterfall : It doesn’t make sense
01:46 pm Mathew Waterfall : I think we see a big shake out before thanksgiving. And the whipsaw will be real and violent
01:46 pm Mathew Waterfall : Just picked up some $USLV for the occasion
01:47 pm Curtis M : I havent spun my tires like last 2 days for literally I can´t recall
01:48 pm Mathew Waterfall : I haven’t traded this hard and lost money either. Should have stayed in Palm Springs for the week
01:50 pm Curtis M : Trends will start soon enough
02:02 pm Curtis M : Theyre selling the rips so that makes it tough …
02:09 pm GSCT . : Should $NUGT correlate with an up move?
02:09 pm Curtis M : Yes
02:09 pm Curtis M : $IAU has volume
02:09 pm Curtis M : Not sure why
02:11 pm GSCT . : But your algos show Gold down more 1167(?) before ramping?
02:12 pm Curtis M : Yes
02:13 pm GSCT . : It’s how I have been trading.
02:14 pm Curtis M : Long $IAU small acount for a gamble at 11.80 800 shares
02:14 pm GSCT . : Curious about incorporating your data into my strategy.
02:15 pm GSCT . : What’s the winning percentage of your Gold algo? I tink you said oil is 90% day trade rate.
02:16 pm GSCT . : think
02:18 pm GSCT . : Wow.
02:18 pm GSCT . : But no Natty Gas algo.
02:19 pm Curtis M : Out $IAU for basicallly flat .5 cent loss

Basically flat.
02:19 pm Mathew Waterfall : OIL ramp into pit close here
02:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : TONS of volume in /CL contracts as well
02:21 pm Mathew Waterfall : don’t want to go home short crew covering their a$$
02:23 pm Curtis M : back before last hour 345 at latest checking on other traders etc
02:23 pm Curtis M : would like one last hit for the week
02:23 pm Curtis M : algo charting technical next week
02:45 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Back in 5 – all our equipment came in today so we’re fully set up in one week! yehhaw – anyway scanning for afternoon EOD play
03:14 pm Mathew Waterfall : I out all of my miners. Those things look horrible, and gold looks horrible. Will look for set up in $DUST moving forward via calls most likely
03:19 pm Curtis M : Have a great weekend guys and gals!
03:19 pm Curtis M : I will stay close to monitors to hear alarms until end of day.
03:20 pm Curtis M : Big reports coming out for before Monday open we start with algos next week.

So that was 3 small losses… the first momo trade the loss could have been smaller and the other two I should have held – if I was respecting the range I would have but I was obviously not respecting simple fundamental principles of successful trading. Hope you learn from that!

Monday a new day!

Best and stay blessed.

Curt

 

Topics: Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Chat Room

11
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 11 ($USOIL $WTI Oil, $DXY Dollar, $VIX, $GLD Gold, $NATGAS … more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Friday November 11, 2016.

Welcome to the Friday trading session!

I am not going to repost our standard line-up of the US Dollar, Gold, Miners, Silver, Copper, Natural Gas, Oil, S & P 500 and Volatility because my position is the same as yesterday (refer to pre-market stock watchlist Thursday).

Momentum Stocks (Market open and Intra-Day)

I do trade morning momo stocks at times, but I do avoid risk. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Stock Watch-Lists

Regular Watch-List: Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP, ), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Misc. Watch-list: $UGAZ (Chart), $C (Bank), $MNST (Bottom Play), $DRYS (Shipper), $THC (Bottom Play), $TPL (Trump Play), $JJC (Continued Copper Break-Out?), $AUMN (Favorite Penny play w / Gold and Silver break-out).

Pre-Market Gainers Watch-list: $PTCT $NVDA $MACK $JJC $RGSE $CWH $MACK $OMER $YANG $EDZ $BT $DGAZ $AMD $TVIX $DWTI $SRPT $UVXY $JNUG

Stay tuned in Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch. 

Study

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

Algorithmic trading / traditional charting trading starts Monday!

GL!

Curtis

 

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist

11
Nov 2016

Stock Trading Results (2 W 0 L 2 H Green Portfolio Day) Post Market Report Thur Nov 10 $THC, $XIV Etc…

Post Market Report (Trade Results) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades for Thursday Nov 10, 2016.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from the trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc. chat deleted) .

Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive (we start sharing videos soon – just one more thing on the to-do list).

In addition to chat, this trade room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out of each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

Today’s Trades And Alerts: $THC, $XIV, $DRYS, $TUBE, $ECPG, $GLBS, $EBIO

So we did get the snap back up in the market as expected… but Thursday it slowed… especially late in the day with the bond market firing off madness.

I got out of my small account and swing account $XIV swing from the night before for my two wins and entered in small account later in day expecting a spike in oil at latest at pit close (because it has been consolidating at support) and with the recent election catalyst I ASSUMED I was safe. But nope, market went flat with bond markets and oil never got price lift. So I’m long over-night in small account $XIV and still in a $THC swing that I may add to if it sees another leg down. I think the dip was over-done.

There were (again) some morning momentum stocks that I could have entered, but I was focused on a timely exit in my $XIV holdings…. overnight swings does make that tough.

So today I have to decide whether to add to $THC or cut and with $XIV I have to decide whether to hold over weekend if the market doesn’t get some positive price action.

09:03 am GSCT . : /CL dropping here
09:09 am Curtis Melonopoly : $TRP, $THC, $TPL, $WFT, $JJC #Copper, $AUMN, $UWTI for bounce at algo line (red)
09:11 am Curtis Melonopoly : Gap $TUBE $LIQT $HPJ $AMDA $AEG $CLLS $MTL $UBS $WBIO $OMER
09:26 am Curtis Melonopoly : $BAC
09:27 am Curtis Melonopoly : Watching $XIV for exit and renter
09:27 am Curtis Melonopoly : Watching $THC for possible exit
09:29 am Curtis M : $XLF $TBF $TBT $TLT $BAC
09:29 am Curtis M : Also watching oil for support
09:44 am Curtis Melonopoly : Out $XIV 40.42 avg on both small and swing

So this was win # 1 and win #2 on day and was a 39.27 entry in swing account and small account with a 40.42 exit for about 1.15 gain or 2.5% ish.

From yesterday:

02:44 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Loooking at size in $XIV in 5ths 1/5 today
02:46 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Long $XIV 1/10 size 39.27 scale over next 24 hours the rest
02:48 pm Curtis Melonopoly : $XIV is 500 shares of 1/10 39.27

09:44 am Curtis Melonopoly : reenter lunch or sooner
09:54 am GSCT . : We need some cold weather to pop /NG
10:03 am Curtis Melonopoly : $DXY US Dollar Index upside res 98.61, 98.78 (short term PT), 98.91, 99.17, 99.28, 99.64, 99.80
10:30 am Curtis Melonopoly : When others return from other room accept my apologies lol we’ll get it sorted before DEc 1
10:30 am Curtis Melonopoly : And the grey out will be too
10:33 am Curtis Melonopoly : Back in 20 – Sartaj working on getting the others back in to this server lol too
10:33 am Curtis Melonopoly : Running scans
10:33 am Curtis Melonopoly : Trading Plan enter $XIV and $USOIL around lunch
10:59 am Curtis Melonopoly : Ok I gotta run momo scanns so I may as well take an early lunch cause plays will ikely start earlier than normal for afternoon session
11:00 am Curtis Melonopoly : Catch you back here 11:40 ish
12:17 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Loading for $XIV long
12:31 pm Mathew Waterfall : Big wedge building in /CL. I went into $UWTI for a starter
12:42 pm Mathew Waterfall : IMO this is calm before the storm
12:52 pm Mathew Waterfall : /CL going vertical here as well
12:56 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Long $XIV small account 400 shares 39.08
12:56 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Sorry for late alert
01:06 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Whats your buy Mathew?
01:07 pm Mathew Waterfall : On a vol play of /cl?
01:07 pm Mathew Waterfall : *or
01:08 pm Mathew Waterfall : I took $UWTI at /cl 44.55
01:08 pm Mathew Waterfall : for volitility I got out of VXX puts this AM. Back in a bit earlier
01:08 pm Mathew Waterfall : I’m in Nov25 VXX 30’s @.78
01:08 pm Mathew Waterfall : Currently trading for a buck
01:22 pm Robert Norman : Are you using SMA?
01:26 pm GSCT . : I’ve been in and out of chat. DId you ahve a posotion in $XIV for this +$2 move?
01:28 pm GSCT . : have position
01:31 pm Mathew Waterfall : 44.80 seems to be line in the sand on /CL. someone defending
01:35 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Long $XIV small account 400 shares 39.08 (previous post) still long
01:37 pm GSCT . : Cool. Thanks.
01:47 pm Curtis Melonopoly : NP – back in 20
02:00 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Ok now going to do 2 calls back soon
02:25 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Looking for swing acct entry 1/5 2000 shares at bottom of channel on $SPY
02:27 pm Curtis Melonopoly : $DRYS 180% lol
02:31 pm Mathew Waterfall : Took some straight /CL contracts @44.62. Looking for a bounce off of recent support
02:51 pm GSCT . : Gold looking for the basement floor
03:06 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Gold https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/796806153351168000
03:14 pm Mathew Waterfall : In some $TZA lotto’s for tomorrow. Think we might see a little pullback here
03:21 pm Curtis Melonopoly : I may have to sit through a pullback we’ll see – on $XIV
03:33 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Bonds are an issue right now – but I think very short term – then ATH $SPY ramp up again Tuesday at very latest
03:38 pm GSCT . : $LABD 14.65 – 14.94
03:43 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Holding $XIV overnight – until Tues if need be while bonds sort out… and out this morning $XIV on small acct and swing acct for win. Holding $THC swing but will hammer down again up to 5 times if it drops (1/5 sized in).
03:43 pm Curtis Melonopoly : Have a great night!

 

Topics: Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Chat Room

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