Tag: Oil Trading Room
Crude Oil Trading Strategies: Sell-Off in to Oil Futures Settlement – 190 Point Snap-Back Trade w/Video #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
How to Trade an Oil Price Sell-Off in to Futures Settlement at 2:30 PM EST for Reversal.
This Reversal (Snap-Back) Crude Oil Trade Provided a 190 Point Range for Our Oil Trading Room Traders.
One of the best ways to increase your oil trading profit is with reversal trading. Crude oil can be difficult to trade, so knowing where reversals in price are likely to occur (support areas of charting) greatly helps a trader with winning trade signals.
A Warning! In a reversal trade it is important to manage your stops, bias, trade size in accordance to your account size.
The example below is of a 30 contract size (possible) oil trading account used by our software EPIC V3.1.1.
I personally didn’t take the trade because I was tired and I had a few other reasons. But it cost me some excellent profit because the price of oil then reversed and rallied near 200 ticks – it would have been a great win for me.
Some of our traders in our oil trading room did get the win so that was great, so I learned a lesson for next time.
The biggest lesson being that when EPIC V3.1.1 alerts an oil trade and the signal is “in-play” it is best for me to get with it and take the trade because the software has been winning non stop since it’s “black swan” code updates.
The oil charts below are models developed by our trading team that are proprietary to our oil trade alert and trading room members, however, if you know how to properly chart conventionally you can also take advantage of this set-up.
Let’s start with the set-up for the possible reversal trade on the one hour chart model. The one hour oil chart suggests that a turn in price, or a topping, is near (refer to the curved grey arch on the chart).
More specifically to this trade set up, the yellow trend lines (algorithmic trend lines) provide for a possible area on the charting for intra-day support in a possible sell-off scenario in to futures settlement at 2:30 PM on Thursday May 7, 2020.
The alert went out to the oil trading room and trade alert feed as follows;
You can see on the oil chart below that price was crashing at 12:18:17 EST time (or 12:18 PM) so the possible set-up for a bounce after oil settled at 2:30 PM was setting up.
If you’re thinking of swinging crude oil for a bounce, we’re getting closer to support areas.
Intra-day time cycle on crude oil is 1:45 P.M. for a possible bounce (reversal), careful with expecting VWAP to hit with some funds turning short.
The chart below and guidance provided to subscribers was also that at 1:45 PM a time cycle intra-day was possibly at an inflection point (or peak / bottom) and this was reason to be on high alert.
Screen capture of oil trading alert feed telling oil trading room position started.
Then at 2:44, so 14 minutes after crude oil officially settled for the day the alert went out that we were opening our trade position long at 8/30 size at 24.67 and the screen image below shows some of the other alerts and comments as the trade was going well and in a winning position.
Long 8/30 24.67 FX USOIL WTI trade on CL — EPIC.
Screen capture image of oil trading room when I alerted the trade position opened and discussing trading strategies.
One of the things we do in the oil trading room is provide charting and as much trade strategy guidance for our subscribers as possible.
This image below is a screen shot of the Discord room where we’ll chatter and share ideas and there is also a live mic and charting trading room where I walk our traders through the trades on voice broadcast live and share the charts we are using – both run at same time..
If the trade works, the price target would be Friday 3:00 PM EST ish for 29.00 ish.
The guidance provided to the trading room after we entered the trade was the price targets and time of the targets possibly coming in to affect. The chart below shows an arrow that provides our traders with a trajectory of trade should the plan being working.
The crude oil one hour chart with symmetry time cycles has been an amazing model, working very well, details on video.
The image below shows the 1 hour algorithmic model and the symmetries in crude oil trade, time cycles and price targets. The reference to “the video” is that we record all trading sessions and make them available to our subscribers for $STUDY and review.
The Live Oil Trading Room Raw Video Feed
At 1:12:40 on the video timer is where the oil trade starts, you can see and hear the actual trade guidance for the signals I am providing our traders as the trade sets-up.
There isn’t a lot of trade guidance on mic because much of it was provide in advance in the trading room and on alert feeds, but you can idea of how it works in the trading room on the video. There is also a time stamp at near bottom right of screen in the video on the chart itself.
The Chart Below Shows Trade Long Entries (green arrows) and Take Profit Areas Selling (red arrows).
Crude Oil Trade Alerts dot plotted on 1 minute grid chart of EPIC V3.1.1 trade from oil trading room earlier today.
The trade on the 60 min symmetrical time cycle model (white arrow), long position after sell-off in to daily settlement.
The reversal trade works really well for oil traders as long as you manage the trade size according to your account size and be sure to stop out if you are on the wrong side of the trade.
Oil can trend down or up for weeks so staying on the wrong side of an oil trade can cost you your whole trading account.
So if you know your areas of support on the most dominant time frames (in this instance the 1 hour charting) and you execute your long trade after it looks like the sell-off has stopped then it becomes simply managing the ebb and flow of trade according to your personal style thereafter.
BUT IF IT FAILS, my best suggestion to you is to close the trade sooner than later.
I’ve also written other articles on intra-day reversal oil trades – they are more in-depth and a tad technical, but if you want to dig deeper in to this topic here are a few recent articles:
- Buying Support in to the Plunge During Crude Oil Intra-Day Sell-Off | Oil Trading Room Video, Alerts, Strategy.
- 134 Ticks in 1 Hour (Post EIA). Crude Oil Trading Tips: A Simple Intra-Day Reversal Strategy..
My tweet summarizing the oil trade on my personal Twitter feed (shows alert screen shots);
When crude oil sold off in to 2:30 settlement yesterday, EPIC V3.1.1 machine protocol went in deep long for swing trade, I didn’t follow… EPIC got it Direct hitFireBow and arrow I didn’t – in hindsight, likely cause I was tired. Good lesson.
#OTTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI #OilTradeAlerts
When crude oil sold off in to 2:30 settlement yesterday, EPIC V3.1.1 machine protocol went in deep long for swing trade, I didn't follow… EPIC got it 🎯🔥🏹 I didn't – in hindsight, likely cause I was tired. Good lesson. #OTTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI #OilTradeAlerts #MachineTrading pic.twitter.com/bcNUzTTER5
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) May 8, 2020
In the tweet below, I was explaining that oil traders would want to be focusing on trades that are on the outside extreme ranges in price.
The reason for this is that oil recently rallied off lows and we have a time cycle and price targets that see oil topping near – term. When oil starts to top or bottom in a wider time-frame it is then best to trade the range of trade on lower time-frames (such as the 1 minute, 5, 15 or 30 minute charting) until the larger trend is formed.
Oil traders, they’ll want to take the trades on the extremes the next two weeks #OOTT $CL_F $USO The whippy extremes will provide the best risk reward for oil traders.
Oil traders, they'll want to take the trades on the extremes the next two weeks #OOTT $CL_F $USO The whippy extremes will provide the best risk reward for oil traders.
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) May 6, 2020
So that’s the reversal snap-back trade in crude oil futures that you can either consider as a day trade or an intra-week swing trade. There are of course many other considerations we use (our software has over 9000 rules in its instructions), but for the purposes of a human trader, the above article should help get you started.
We endeavor to develop the best winning oil trading alerts and oil trading room service for oil traders.
Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Article Topics; oil, strategies, reversal, trade, swing trading, day trading, crude oil, oil trading room, oil trading alerts.
One of The Best Crude Oil Day Trading Strategies – 200 MA One Minute Chart Time Frame #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
How to Day Trade the 1 Minute Oil Chart Using the 200 MA for Support and Symmetry for Resistance.
A Simple Step by Step Intra Day Trading Guide from our Oil Trading Room and Alerts Service.
Below are my top trading rules (steps I take in my strategy) when daytrading crude oil on the one minute time-frame. It has worked for me over the years and I am sure you will find it a highly profitable way to day-trade oil.
1. The Price Trend of Trade is Your Friend.
- If you are going to day trade oil long be sure oil is in a rally. In this case oil has been rallying for a number of days and today oil price continued to rally. In this instance, the trend is on your side so it is obvious that your highest probability day trades scalping crude oil futures will be long buy entries.
- Today’s News – Stock market live updates: Dow up 400, oil rallies 18%, Norwegian dives 18% https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/stock-market-today-live.html
2. Price Dropping in to The 200 MA on One Minute Oil Chart.
- Chart from the Oil Trading Room and Alerts feed shows the set-up intra day for the 200 MA scalp, “On the 1 minute time frame 25.15 200 MA is attractive test for a crude oil day trade pop up scalp – trading 25.68. #oiltradealerts” The white arrow on the chart points to the 200 MA on the 1 minute time-frame (200 MA in pink).
On the 1 min time frame 25.15 200 MA is attractive test for a crude oil day trade pop up scalp – trading 25.68. #oiltradealerts
3. Execute Your Long Trade when Price Hits the 200 MA (Moving Average).
- The screen image capture of the oil trading alerts feed show oil price bouncing off the 200 MA signal, day trade is now in play.
- “Nice 40 point move on that crude oil daytrade set up on the 1 minute time frame, I didn’t take it, first extension resistance here. #oiltradealerts”
The screen image capture of the oil trading alerts feed show oil price bouncing off the 200 MA signal, day trade is now in play. #oiltradingalerts
4. Take Profit as You – Go Based on Your Trading Plan.
- Oil trading room live image below shows first price target hit, symmetrical price extensions, and a point to trim profits in your long trade scalping crude oil #oiltradingroom
Oil trading room live image shows first price target hit, symmetrical extensions, and a point to trim long scalp #oiltradingroom
5. Technical Analysis Helps Plan Your Oil Trading Strategies.
- Below is a one minute oil chart with symmetrical price extension price targets so our oil traders know where to trim profits along the way while daytrading oil.
Your 3 steps of symmetrical extension resistance points for this day trade in oil #oiltradealerts
6. Use an Oil Trading Strategy – A Plan.
- The image capture of oil trading room shows the 3 price targets for our trading strategy with this trade intraday #oiltradingstrategies
- At point of writing this article, the move on this oil trade alert intra-day is now 80 points, this is a fantastic day trade strategy for oil traders. Knowing where your price targets are and knowing how to measure the symmetry for price extension price targets will really help your strategy.
The image capture of oil trading room shows the 3 price targets for our trading strategy with this trade intraday #oiltradingstrategies
Technical indicators or signals really help retrieve more profit in each trade and also help with your winning percentage of trades.
There are many other signals that you can use for any oil day trade, including the trade outlined in this article. Some of the other indicators or trade signals include order flow, time of day, resistance and support on larger time frames such as the 5 minute, 15 minute or 30 minute chart time-frames and many more.
The price extensions in this article are part of a proprietary one minute oil trading grid model that our machine trading uses. There are many ways to set your price targets, some use conventional charting methods and some algorithmic (or proprietary models as in this instance).
Hopefully this tutorial on using the one minute oil chart 200 MA as a signal for day trading (scalping) trades has helped. It is an intra-day strategy that has worked for me in my trading time and time again.
You should find implementing this simple crude oil intra day trading strategy that your win rate and returns will excel.
If you liked this article there is another day trading oil strategy article I wrote here.
Oh, and by the way, while I am finishing up writing this article oil is getting near the upper price target for this day trade and I just alerted the oil trading room and our alert subscribers to take profits. Nice Trade!
My goal is to build the best oil trading room and oil trading alerts service in the world for oil traders – obviously a tall order, but we’re getting there one step at a time.
Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Article Topics; day trading, crude oil, 200 MA, 1 minute time frame, strategy, chart, symmetry, oil trading room, oil trading alerts, simple, intraday, trading strategy
“Excuse Me, While I Kiss The Sky”. Part 2 Insider’s Look at How We Daytrade Crude Oil (w/ real-time alert screen shots from oil trading room).
Part Two of What They Won’t Tell You and How We Daytrade Crude Oil Against the Machines
Below is another daytrading session disclosure of real-time oil trade alerts from our oil trading room and alert feeds.
Many in the markets will tell you that there are no crystal balls in the stock market (in this instance in commodity markets). Others will tell you that order flow is key, or storage, OPEC or whatever else. And sure, on broad time-frames there are many different indications of oil price direction that provide clues.
But when daytrading crude oil, everything, and I mean everything other than what the machine trading liquidity dominant players are doing is relavent.
Below you will see real time oil trading alerts from our private member feed, and real time guidance I provided to the oil trading room while I was trading and even public faxing tweets from my personal Twitter feed.
Sometimes I will tweet on my own public facing feed in an effort to show the trading world what is really happening to our markets, but cognitive dissonance keeps most bound to what the shiny balls on TV have to say. So I am not sure whether I’ll continue much longer in that because it’s a lot of effort and you feel like you get nowhere.
Anyway, enough of that, I’ll let the real-time alerts and trading room discussions below do the talking.
Take the time to read this carefully and the previous post you can find here:
When done think about it, spend some time reflecting on what this means for the future of the markets. Beyond just winning and having the best daytrading oil strategies there are real ramifications here.
Okay, good luck with your $STUDY, let me know if you need anything after you have reviewed the documentation below.
Let’s start here, when daytrading crude oil the most important thing you can do is know where you are in the playing field – the structure of crude oil trade within the dominant time cycle. This is key. If you know the time cycle that the dominant players (liquidity) are trading on then you can then trade along with them. This is by far the best oil trading strategy you will ever find.
From yesterday’s article (part 1) I had shared the one hour crude oil chart model and showed you exactly what the structure was and what the TIMING of the price target the dominant daytrading liquidity was targeting. This is the key to successful crude oil daytrading.
Below is the updated 1 hour daytrading oil chart. Take a look at today and yesterday (in part 1). And then read yesterday’s article closely and you will see that we knew exactly where the price of oil was going to be, in advance.
But first, the oil chart.
Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow.
You can see how the machine dominant liquidity has traded very technically toward the price target at 1:00 PM Thursday. What determines if the price target is met? At each decision along the way if retail order flow follows the dominant machines, the machines simply take price to the next decision most efficiently. It’s that simple.
So as you can see in the chart below, the daytrading action in oil has been consistently toward the price target within the chart structure.
Okay, now that you have “perspective” of the arena or battleground, let’s look at the real-time charting, trade alerts and commentary from the alert feed and oil trading room:
Below are only highlights and snippets of the discussion and guidance I provided to the oil trading room, private Twitter alert feed, charting and even public facing personal Twitter feed. To keep this article as short as possible I provide only highlights of the trade sequence below.
Screen shot of oil trading room lead trade alerting initial trade position in crude oil futures with guidance.
“Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 9:21 PM
Long 16.10 2/10
personal trade will advise
order flow progressive I’m going to go with it, over 16 resistance on hourly model
I don’t like this time of day, but I’m going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2-% size 16.10 #oiltradealerts
Curt MelonopolyToday at 9:44 PM
this trade could easily come back to 15.67 before bullish continuation imo so i’m being cautious, its the 30 min EPIC model that concerns me a bit
but the 1 hour has been so strong i’m going with a possible run up with bulls, basically managing that RR
and on hourly 15.74 is the diagonal TL support
so in short, if it pulls back i’ll hold 2/10 re-hit 15.64 area if it gets there with an add 2/10 if that fails cut the loss, but i’m going to play it for the possible run up in to Thurs mid day
so there’s some risk but possible reward is significant
potential run is about 140 ticks up and risk is 60, so there’s different ways to manage that i suppose
easier to manage this type of trade with CFDs than CL contracts, I may take on CFDs in near futures as an addition to my personal trading for these scenarios.”
Screen shot of oil trade alerts member Twitter feed of initial entry in crude oil by lead trader.
Charting shared to oil trading room.
“I don’t like this time of day, but I’m going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2/10 size 16.10 #oiltradealerts”
What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame.
Entries in crude oil futures are the green arrows and the red are when the trades are closed on the daytrading time-frame charting.
Another screen shot of oil trading room and the guidance I’m providing to the daytraders as we progress through trade.
Will trim at .30 if we get it here, trading 16.25 —-> Trim 1/10 16.30 hold 1.10
took the trim i want the breathing room
not an easy trade
16.30 is mid range on 1 min machine model and 16.48 is top range on 1 min
My stop on the 1/10 is at entry now
What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame #oiltradealerts
The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart.
Oil trading room discussion where I am explaining where I may close this part of the trade intraday.
“I may close 16.47 if we get it, 16.45 HOD so far, don’t like the tight trading here.
Closing 16.45 hold 0
chickened out don’t like the action
20 ticks on the 1/10 and 35 ticks on the 2nd 1/10 isn’t so bad for this time of night i suppose
The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart #oildaytrading
this is double top on 60 min here
Here’s your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame #oildaytrading”
Here’s your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame.
Oil trading room discussion explaining the technical levels to watch on a daytrading basis.
“Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through, if retail goes with them that will happen #oiltradealerts
if that happens that will be volatile there
I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart, doesn’t look like I will get it though #oiltradealerts”
Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through.
Another screen image of the crude oil trading room explaining machine order flow buying oil intraday.
“Jeremy is reporting micro programs buying all opportunities at weekness all the way through intra day so far #oilttrading
problem is timing intra day, they only have so much time to move this
I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.”
I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart.
I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.
okay, here it is, this is their push to force the squeeze intraday in to the price target in the time cycle peak.
You can see how they’re grinding away at each half range tier on the 1 minute oil trade time frame intraday.
Air is thin up here, this is double top on 5 min machine model – see extension arrow.
So on the 5 min timeframe bulls have lost their edge but on hourly I think they still have 20 mins.
Here’s your 1 hour time frame view, looks like bulls still have some time, hard to be exact on larger timing.
And on 1 minute yet another half range zone grind through supply for continuation.
Excuse me while I kiss the sky, yet another price target in the grid complete, AI power on display.
Said climax brings time cycle intraday in to completion, if retail wants it to move now they’ll have to go alone.
Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow.
Retail left naked in the time cycle and have no idea why the air just came out.
And on my personal Twitter feed (public facing) sometimes I’ll let the world know we’re trading to show folks how the oil trading room and alerts work.
Below is a link and if you open the link you will find the thread on Twitter, it was real-time also.
As with the charts, live trading room discussion and private Twitter alert feed above, I show only some highlights, there is much more guidance on all than you see here in this article.
“AI school in session
#OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $USO”
AI school in session #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $USO
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 30, 2020
“So the game is find the time-frame and use the model they’re using, but it’s all done with machines making those decisions and computer scientists constantly updating code, its a massive war game of techies competing for dominance, that’s oil trade in today’s world #OOTT $CL_F
its a massive game of go on various time-frames with entities competing with various amounts of liquidity all competing for dominant positioning, the dominant teams determine the time frame in play through liquidity, they’re in control,”
so the game is find the time-frame and use the model they're using, but it's all done with machines making those decisions and computer scientists constantly updating code, its a massive war game of techies competing for dominance, that's oil trade in today's world #OOTT $CL_F
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 30, 2020
“i know, i know, there are no crystal balls in the markets
none of that just happened
#OOTT $CL_F $USO”
i know, i know, there are no crystal balls in the markets
none of that just happened#OOTT $CL_F $USO
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 30, 2020
And earlier in the day I was attempting to explain to the Fintwit world what is actually moving and controlling oil price day to day.
“Most conventional market thinkers say that you cannot predict the future
what they won’t tell you is there are a select few that do actually predict it with a very high degree of accuracy
but it takes time to confirm and verify
and this is how the mass con keeps you bound.”
most conventional market thinkers say that you cannot predict the future
what they won't tell you is there are a select few that do actually predict it with a very high degree of accuracy
but it takes time to confirm and verify
and this is how the mass con keeps you bound
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 29, 2020
“Predicting with a rate of accuracy and trading it are two totally different things
it’s obvious in a machine driven world, with machine instructions that predictability will increase
if you know the rule-set instructions where the majority of machine flow resides.”
predicting with a rate of accuracy and trading it are two totally different things
it's obvious in a machine driven world, with machine instructions that predictability will increase
if you know the rule-set instructions where the majority of machine flow resides https://t.co/2oWquQiNjV
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 29, 2020
I am hoping that with part 1 of this series and this part 2 article of exactly how we are daytrading this next leg in crude oil price from our oil trading room that you can see better how to day trade crude oil with success.
As I said in article 1 of this series:
My goal is to build the best oil trading room and alerts service in the world for traders, it is a large task, but the hardest part of our mission is done, we can trade with the best machines in the world now. The rest should be easier.
Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Part One of this article here: What They Won’t Tell You – How We DayTrade Crude Oil Against The AI’s in the Markets, A Sneak Peak. #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI
Part Three of this article here: BOOOM! Price and Time Exactly as Predicted Days in Advance | Part 3 – How We Daytrade Crude Oil #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Article Topics; oil trading room, daytrading, crude, oil, strategies, oil trade alerts
What They Won’t Tell You – How We DayTrade Crude Oil Against The AI’s in the Markets, A Sneak Peak. #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI
An Insider’s Look at Daytrading Crude Oil – Against The Machines | Live Trade Alerts Guidance by our Lead Trader in Oil Trading Room
Tonight when I sat down to my trading desk I didn’t intend to trade crude oil, but I knew that our lead Computer Scientist Jeremy had been tracking some machine liquidity sweepers in oil futures and indices markets since earlier Tuesday April 28, 2020.
So I was ready for anything.
We’ve been watching the crude oil machine order flow in the markets for the last 12 hours or so – since the AI’s showed up in flow earlier on EPIC IDENT software.
The machine programs have been slowly taking hold of the intra-day oil trading structure more and more over the course of the day on each time frame from 15 second micro daytrading charting time-frame through to 1 minute, 5 minute and 60 minute time-frames that I will show you below.
Anyway, when I sat down for my daily market prep $STUDY session I realized the machines were firing long in to some price targets on the 60 minute oil chart time-frame structure. I knew that our software wouldn’t start trade executions yet (it needs a certain amount of machine order flow to support its bias and start triggering).
If you haven’t read the EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading White Paper yet you can read about the rule-set instructions it fires trades to here: White Paper Updated Dec 29, 2019: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading.
So I knew the machines in crude oil futures trade were / are firing long in to a price target for Thursday 1:00 PM based on the 1 hour oil charting time-frame (from that specific algorithmic model). So I took the trade before I finished my first coffee.
By the way, we trade when the machine flow is in the markets because it becomes unfair for the competitors, in other words, our win rate skyrockets because we have intelligence the average oil day-trader does not have (unless they are employing high-end machine intelligence).
Below is one example, I just closed out the day-trade in crude oil futures you will see here.
I provide what I can (I can only show you so much) but what you will see below are the screen images from the oil trading room and oil trade alerts feed and algorithmic trading chart models that represent our machine trade for some of the time-frames. The guidance I provided the oil trading room and oil trade alert feed are included.
If you read this document carefully…
You will notice if you read this document carefully that I explained to the trading room what the machines would do in advance of it actually happening. On each time frame of trade we know what the decisions are algorithmically for the machine order flow.
I explained to the trading room what the machines would do in advance of it actually happening.
The charts below from the trade alerts and oil trading room are time stamped in the top left hand corner of the image .
I hope you enjoy the disclosure, here it is;
First the earlier trade set-up strategy commentary and guidance from the oil trading room earlier in the day discussing the upcoming time cycle in crude oil and machine order flow identified in markets.
Crude oil trading structure suggests decision for leg up or down prior to Thurs 1200 EST PM #oiltradingroom
Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified.
JeremyToday at 10:19 AM
That was the strongest progressive order flow in the recent lows we have seen yet, likely machine programs in that rally. Time cycle for Thur 12:00 PM EST looks like the inflection (sometime prior). EPIC V3.1.1 was very close to firing, next rally we would expect programs to start.
Curt MelonopolyToday at 10:19 AM
Nice, thanks J
JeremyToday at 11:53 AM
Those SPY blocks from this morning you may see on social media people talking about, the machine programs coincide on CL progressive blocks. Same entity(s) likely.
Curt MelonopolyToday at 11:55 AM
thanks J
And one of my best oil trade alerts this week was here;
luisitoToday at 1:45 PM
Looking for a possible bounce from 10.00 area to 13.00s, trading 11.24 and dropping. FX USOIL WTI
@Curt Melonopoly amazing call
Curt MelonopolyToday at 1:45 PM
well thanks @luisito i’ll take what i can lol
we’re just watching this order flow now in to settlement because there were some sweepers in earlier today CL and SPy
luisitoToday at 1:47 PM
Curt: is a 400 ticks call. 100 down, 300 up.
Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified #oiltradingroom
Curt MelonopolyToday at 1:48 PM
ha ya, hopefully the next is better, if we get follow through above the earlier blocks we should see 19.46
have to see if the sweeper push it
Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:32 PM
As expected: Moderate above VWAP in to settlement, reflects market action & order flow, API and EIA then likely reversal to 19.40s, we’ll watch and see if the sweepers return. Should see EPIC (I know I’ve said it last week but structure needs to be there and it seems were there)
Very technical move in crude oil, post EIA should provide exceptional trading opportunity, structure returning fast.
If the machine bulls get their way, 19.47 Thursday 100 PM is the mark, 600 ticks, trading 13.56, 1 hr firing clean #oiltradealerts
Oil Trading Room alerting first trade entry – I’m going to go with this tight stops 1-10 13.59 long. #oiltradingroom
I’m going to go with this tight stops 1/10 13.59 long. Likely fails but I’m going to try and build above 13.56. So I’ll close under go above around that pivot. Quoting FX USOI WTI traded on CL.
The one minute support (pivot) I am speaking about (white arrow), but they have to clear 1 hour resistance on previous chart. #oiltradealerts
Hoping my long position sees a bit of a squeeze in oil futures here in to 1030 PM EST time cycle peak on 5 min timeframe #oiltradealerts
I marked the price targets for intra day machine route bias to the 19.47 price target Thursday. See chart. #oiltradealerts
Screen capture of actual oil trade alert from private member feed – 14.19 is the next resistance trading… #oiltradealerts
14.19 is the next resistance trading 14.05 so i may close 14.18 area and see if we pull back and then go again.
Bulls are taking some profit at 14.04 recent double top area of price, so we’ll see how this shapes up or down #oiltradealerts
Based on the first symmetrical extension on the 1 min your new pivot is approx 13.74, so if bulls are firing on 1 min this should hold.
If your 1 min symmetrical pivot support doesn’t hold then look to 5 min 20 MA for bulls to go or not in to 1030 timing #oiltradealerts
Screen capture image of oil trading alert private feed where I close the oil trade for a win and explain decisions #oiltradingalert
Screen shot image captured of actual oil trading room discussion from lead trader and guidance for trade plan #oiltraderoom
I am going to let them go from here without me and on a pull back (likely after time cycle peak) then I will re-enter long for the next leg up.
I got a 58 point move there on that time cycle, symmetrical set-up s I’m happy with that considering time of day.
I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don’t make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly.
I got my bullish extension on 1 min symmetrical move as planned, lets see if I get a pull back, still time n to 1030 time cycle for more #oiltradealerts
You can see how the squeeze is occurring in crude oil in to the time cycle at 1030 PM as it did at 730 PM #oiltradealerts
I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don’t make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly. #oiltradealerts
Over 14.19 in crude oil trade on FX USOIL WTI 14.56 then 14.80 are your next intraday resistance #oiltrading #daytrading
You can see how bulls in oil trade are firing off the trajectory arrow toward the price targets I’m alerting, when it fails watch out #oiltradealerts
Bulls only have 5 prime minutes left (10 total) and trajectory for 14.56 price target comes in at 1057PM so they need a squeeze #oiltradealerts
They have 4 minutes left to 5 min candle expiry, at 1035 if price target not hit the advantage goes to bears short term #oildaytrading
At 103230 they are firing off half time on 5 min candle decision half range pivot support, if it fails they likely fail here #oiltradealerts
At turn of 1035 PM 5 min candle first signs of break down are appearing #machinetradingoil
If the break down continues, the first real buy trigger for the bulls again is 200MA on 1 min likely at 1100PM #daytradingcrudeoil
Here’s your 200 MA price hit on the crude oil 1 minute time frame, just below is vwap and 1 min range support #oildaytrading
And now the pinch between the 20 MA to upside of price and 200 MA support lower than price for a decision #oiltrading #technicalanalyis
I am sure you can see from the trade action in the oil futures markets how it is best to have machine trade intelligence on your side if you are going to trade crude oil.
My goal is to build the best oil trading room and alerts service in the world for traders, it is a large task, but the hardest part of our mission is done, we can trade with the best machines in the world now. The rest should be easier.
Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Part 2 of this article here: “Excuse Me, While I Kiss The Sky”. Part 2 Insider’s Look at How We Daytrade Crude Oil (w/ real-time alert screen shots from oil trading room).
Part 3 of this article here: BOOOM! Price and Time Exactly as Predicted Days in Advance | Part 3 – How We Daytrade Crude Oil #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Article Topics; oil, daytrading, oil trade alerts, oil trading room, crude oil, futures, trade, strategy
A Real-Time Example of How Time-Cycles Work in Crude Oil Trade 🎯🔥🏹 #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL $UCO $SCO #oiltrading #tradealerts 👇
Real Time Crude Oil Trade Alerts, How Time-Cycles Work – Crude Oil Day-Trading Strategies April 22, 2020.
Daytrading crude oil is not easy, having an edge helps. Time cycles are an edge and algorithmic models also help considerably.
Below is a documented real-time oil trade I took earlier this morning – alerting the trade, charting and guidance to our oil trading room members with a series of trade alerts.
The actual oil trade alerts, oil trading room discussion, guidance and charting is below.
The charting includes our EPIC v3 Machine Trading 30 minute algorithmic model and the 1 minute daytrading chart model that our software uses.
In this instance this was a day trade intended to develop in to an intra-week swing trade.
This trading set-up and the strategy itself is in play live right now.
Oil traders may find this interesting for Wednesday April 22,2020 trade.
See below.
A real-time example of how time-cycles work in crude oil trade Direct hitFireBow and arrow
#OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL #timecycles
A real-time example of how time-cycles work in crude oil trade 🎯🔥🏹#OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL #timecycles 👇
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 22, 2020
Curt MelonopolyToday at 3:14 AM
Starting a swing long 1/10 size 11.00 with stop 10.39 (on FX USOIL WTI) traded on CL, entering other side of quad on EPIC 30 Min – Curt Personal intraday swing trade.
Will advise.
obviously a high risk trade
Curt MelonopolyToday at 3:14 AM
Starting a swing long 1/10 size 11.00 with stop 10.39 (on FX USOIL WTI) traded on CL, entering other side of quad on EPIC 30 Min – Curt Personal intrad day swing trade.
Will advise.
obviously a high risk trade pic.twitter.com/ccjdMukzym— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 22, 2020
30 min quad, hoping to get turn up here
30 min quad, hoping to get turn up here pic.twitter.com/jyOUwmAOMi
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 22, 2020
If I actually get my way here I will trim 25% at 11.39, 11.62, 11.87 and have stop just above entry hoping the 25% remaining gets the turn up for more.
There, got my profit trims and holding 25% of position with stops above entry #oiltradealerts That worked well.
If I actually get my way here I will trim 25% at 11.39, 11.62, 11.87 and have stop just above entry hoping the 25% remaining gets the turn up for more.
There, got my profit trims and holding 25% of position with stops above entry #oiltradealerts That worked well. pic.twitter.com/DfucPyh9Kl— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 22, 2020
Full move through the EPIC 30 min quad fast there and the swing trade in crude oil is well positioned in time cycle #oiltradealerts
Full move through the EPIC 30 min quad fast there and the swing trade in crude oil is well positioned in time cycle #oiltradealerts pic.twitter.com/LQIUQ1Ifjc
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 22, 2020
The power of time cycles and algorithmic trading. #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $USO #machinetrading #oiltradealerts
The power of time cycles and algorithmic trading. #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $USO #machinetrading #oiltradealerts
— Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 22, 2020
Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Article Topics; Crude, Oil, Trading, Strategies, time-cycles, crude oil trade, oil trading room, #OOTT, $CL_F, $USO, $USOIL, $UCO, $SCO, tradealerts, Swing Trading, daytrading, FX, USOIL, WTI
EPIC V3.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update Details | White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
EPIC V3.1 Crude Oil Machine Trading Software Code Upgrade Details | White Paper Update
April 19, 2020
EPIC crude oil machine trading software is a proprietary software development project with an aim to trade crude oil futures. Historical reference can be found at the linked document below.
Click here for the original white paper drafts for EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software.
This white paper update is specific to the EPIC V3.1 software coding update completed for live trade use commencing April 19, 2020.
Purpose of Software Update
In recent crude oil futures trade, specifically since the COVID-19 black swan event, the trading price range and volatility of oil trade (OVX) has been divergent of historical structure.
See chart below: Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) chart showing oil trade volatility spiking from the 20s to 330s during black swan event.
Impact to Software
The volatility in trade and the range of price negatively impacts the smaller range of accounts our software may trade at any given time. More specifically any account trading CL futures less than 10 contracts or approximately 100,000.00 in size is at significant risk. At 10 contract size to 30 contract size the risk is considerably mitigated but still present and at 30 contract size or greater the risk is almost completely eliminated.
While markets are functioning within historical normal trading ranges this is not the case, a 10 contract size account is at very low risk with EPIC V3 software and micro accounts (anything smaller than 10 contracts) there is moderate to considerable risk (the smaller the account the more risk).
Remedy of Risk
Our coding team has performed an update to the EPIC V3 software to trade a base account size of 30 contracts (300,000.00 USD or greater) to allow for greater range of trading price and volatility.
The software instructions for the most part have not changed, the original EPIC V3 protocols remain per previous white paper linked above – at the start of this document.
What is different is simply the size of account as the base case instructional presumption within the code which allows for the software to trigger in smaller “dot plots” within various trading ranges and structure.
Projected Returns
The projected returns annually are expected to drop to a base case scenario of +-40% in an extremely volatile market as we are witnessing since the on-set of COVID-19, however, in times of less volatility we expect this will significantly advantage the EPIC V3.1 updated software and annual returns are expected to well exceed EPIC V3 software coded for a 10 contract base case scenario.
Put simply, the larger the account the more advantaged (refer to the original white paper for further code instruction detail).
At times when crude oil trading price range and volatility return to “normal” conditions we expect returns to easily exceed 100% per annum, however, all return expectations at this juncture are only predicted results based on in-lab testing and not real-world trade. All return estimations and projections are simply theoretical until proven otherwise.
Our oil trade alert clients can refer to the document below for more detail pertaining to the alerts service;
Business Inquiries.
For information about oil trade alerts, oil trading room and oil trade reporting contact Compound Trading Group at [email protected].
For information about automated machine trading platforms contact our agent representative Richard Regan as follows:
CONTACT
Email [email protected]
Phone 1-849-861-0697
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Others in this document series can be found here:
- December 10, 2023: EPIC Update: v6.1.1 Machine Learning Trade Software – Final Protocol Real World Results
- June 3, 2023: EPIC v4.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software White Paper | June 3, 2023
- March 28, 2022: EPIC v3.3 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software White Paper | March 28, 2022 Update
- January 7, 2021: EPIC v3.1.5 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software White Paper | Updated January 11, 2022 w/ Trade Execution Data
- June 4, 2020: EPIC V3.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update | June 4, 2020 White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
- April 19, 2020: EPIC V3.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update Details | White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
- December 29, 2019: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading
Article Topics; Crude, Oil, Trading, Algorithm, Machine Trading, DayTrading, Futures, EPIC, Trade Alerts, Oil Trading Room, $CL_F, $USO, $USOIL
Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Complete | Rule-Set Strategies, Alerts, Accounts Traded, What’s Next?
The Crude Oil Machine Trading Software Is Complete.
The information below (in advance of the official white paper) provides a summary of the development process to date, the rule-set (strategies) the code executes oil trades to, what the oil trade alerts will look like on your feed, returns expected on accounts traded and what we have planned in future.
June 13, 2019
As noted above, we have now completed the main structure of the coding for our crude oil trading.
We have previously messaged that we were either close or right at being complete only to find ourselves back down another rabbit hole. This time is actually different, we are done the primary architecture coding, we only have updates (tweaks) remaining. We expect the bulk of that to last at most ninety days.
The software includes eighteen structured algorithmic models (representing time frames from 1 minute charting to weekly), specific high probable trade set-ups, trade sequences within set-ups, order flow analysis, trend (channel) structures on each time-frame and range structures on each time-frame.
The trends (channels) and range trade structures are given the most weight within the decision process of the rule-set. The larger the structure (time-frame) the more weight for sizing and stop loss range. The models, set-ups. sequences and order flow have much less weight in the code.
This (the weights) described above will manifest in trade activity in such a way that trade will become more active and in greater size with the larger the structure. For example, the trending channel from late December 2018 to recent would be a considerable structure within the code and as such the code would size in to that channel at the support and resistance widths of range.
The white paper that we will publish soon will detail the rule-set in such a way that our clients will be able to follow along with the machine trade and understand the protocol that it is executing. This is the first stage for the architecture needed for our trader digital dash board we intend to develop soon.
As the days and weeks go on the software will fire more regularly and will begin to size considerably more than right now because it is coded to weigh decisions within trade trends, structures etc. As the trade set-ups develop the code will fire on them. Obviously the largest structures will be at the end of this start up process. The last few days it has been firing on 1 min, 5, 15 and 30 minute structures.
At first we expect the returns to be approximately .5% per day (if averaged over 30 trading days) increasing to well over 1% per day at most 90 trading days in to the launch. We have tested the code in advance and are confident with this. Depending on our success with “tweaks” the returns could escalate to near 3% per day, we are however more conservative and expect 1%-1.5%.
We are significantly more confident with this version of code simply because we have been down the rabbit hole on every time frame, in every structure, every set up, every order flow sequence on all time cycles competing with the best machines in the world.
We have been there, we went to battle in every arena, we know where we can win and where we cannot. The final version of code will only fire in arenas that we expect 80% + win rate. The larger the structure the larger the return as the software fires through the sequence with the structure.
We tested code on every time frame, in every algorithmic model, every order flow structure and so on and so on. We left no stone unturned.
There are areas of trade in the oil markets (smallest time frames) that are so competitive it would dazzle your mind. The AI’s that are firing in the smallest of time frames are doing so in a way that no trader can imagine. Every time we completed a sequence of trade in the most competitive areas (time-frames) we were schooled in the most advanced AI machine trade the world has to offer. It is manifested in a way no trader would ever expect. Here’s a hint, imagine getting beat every time, in a new way every time and every new way you got beat was a structured, logical, mathematically sound way and the ways seem endless.
Our final crude oil trade code is well outside those areas of competition.
The alerts on the Twitter client feed, in the oil trading room and on the private Discord server will continue to have “M” in the alert if it is a machine driven trade and if I (Curt) am trading I will also identify the alert detail as such. As the days go on the protocol (trade set up) detail will get more and more detailed so that our clients can follow along with clarity.
See also:
Press: SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release
What’s next?
The next ninety days is for tweaking the code – refining the execution of sequences within structures of trade.
Then near term we will be looking at the trader’s digital platform and API’s etc and then….
AND THEN…. YES, WE HAVE DECIDED to BUILD SOFTWARE FOR BITCOIN MACHINE TRADE.
This will obviously lead our developers in to other crypto-currencies also.
Any questions send me an email [email protected].
Thanks
Curt
Oil Trading Academy:
If you would like to learn more about how to trade oil, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.
Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article Topics: AI, machine trading, trade, software, crude, oil, BTC, Bitcoin, Oil Trading Room, Oil Trade Alerts, Strategy
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Day Trading Signals for Crude Oil Sell-Off Shorting & Bullish Reversal | 1 Minute Chart | Oil Trading Strategies
Below You Will Find Proprietary Oil Trading Signals Not Available Elsewhere.
When Crude Oil Starts Selling Off Intra-Day Volatility Increases Fast. Knowing Where and Having the Signals for Support and Resistance On The One Minute Chart Will Help Your Trading Strategy.
If you day-trade crude oil futures contracts (or if you are learning how to day trade crude oil) the chart models and signals below will help you understand the structure of trade on intra-day charting (like using a GPS or a map).
The trade signals provided below will increase your trading win rate and ROI on each trade (as you learn to trade the set-ups or strategies).
We can also help you with confirming that the trend is actually bearish (selling in downtrend) and when price is likely to reverse intra-day and oil trade is likely to turn bullish.
This is part one of a two part post (part one is public and part two is premium member only).
How Oil Sells Off Intra-day on Stairs to Support Floors Down.
The structure of oil sell-offs is not the same as when oil trades up. When crude oil trade is bearish intra-day you will find that it has specific areas of support / floors (this is also true when price is bullish but the structure or steps of trade are different).
When oil is trading down the price will often quickly drop to the next support and will then hang around for sometime and possibly test resistance areas for a possible reversal. When the reversal doesn’t happen or work then price drops quickly to the next floor of support.
The price of oil drops quickly to support and then the bulls will try and trade price back up (along with a certain amount of the shorts covering short positions) for a snap back or price reversal trade. At each support you will find this process occurring.
The more support there is on the charting (on various chart time-frames) the more likely a snap-back trade will occur (price reverses intra-day). This is why we have algorithmic models and conventional charting for all time frames that we use in the oil trading room, in member reporting and coded in to our machine trading software.
The goal is to know where each support and resistance point is on the charting so that you can develop a trading strategy for intra day moves in oil price.
When you know where the support and resistance is you can then day trade the price of oil with more perspective or clarity.
Before you can learn how to trade a financial instrument (such as crude oil futures contracts) it is important to know the structure of the instrument (as it applies to the charting on various time-frames).
Once you know the structure (the playing field or like I refer to it as a GPS or map) then you need to learn how to trade that specific structure (this is where your personal trading style and strategies come in to play).
Knowing where support and resistance is on the charting allows you to set stops properly, it also helps you with sizing the number of contracts you are trading (trimming and adding to your trade size) and more.
There are two reasons we know the chart structure in the trade of oil (every financial instrument has a structure – like your DNA or the rings on a tree).
One reason is that we construct algorithmic charting models and the other is that we are coding for machine trade of oil. Both reasons require us to back test our charting. It isn’t enough to chart conventional trend-lines (or whatever it is you are charting) and it isn’t enough to design an algorithmic chart model – the assumptions for consideration in trade, such as support and resistances areas, need to be back tested so that you have a quantifiable high probability of success.
You need to know that your assumptions provide highly probable set-ups (trade signals) to provide you a trading edge.
When we chart for the purpose of trading signals we first start with conventional charting (on all time frames) and then move to charting algorithmic models of highly probable areas of support and resistance of trade (visual representation of important structure points of the charting) and then we move to coding what we know to be most probable areas of support and resistance in trade. I should note for completeness that our models provide much more than support and resistance, there are other important trade signals such as time cycles, the structure of trade itself on various time-frames and much more.
We use the charting for crude oil on thirteen different time-frames (1 minute charting through to monthly charting), we chart it on conventional charts, work with algorithmic modelling and back test all the various indicators for up to 60 months (such as moving averages, VWAP, MACD, stochastic RSI and more).
When we back test our assumptions we are calculating the probability of that structure in trade re-occurring. When we find a structure with high probability of repeating then we model that structure and code it to our machine trade software.
In this specific area of day-trading (intra-day sell-offs and reversals) we can help you with what structure is in play on the one minute chart as oil sells off and what to watch for so that you know the sell-off is likely done and the price trend is about to change and turn bullish for price reversal.
Support And Resistance On The One Minute Oil Chart in Sell-Offs.
Specific to crude oil, sell-off support and resistance on the charting is VERY PREDICTABLE. You will find that the areas of support are very precise and price will step down in a very structured way on the chart – this is a near exact science.
Why is the trade of oil so precise on the one minute chart when oil sells off? The answer is very likely because the trade of oil is now mostly done by software programmed / coded for machine trade and this machine trade liquidity has caused very specific structures of trade to manifest.
Lets Look at Some Recent Crude Oil Trade From our Oil Trading Room.
Below is a screen shot from our oil trade chat room on Discord (which is not the same as the live broadcast oil trading room) of a comment and a chart of intra day trade in crude oil (this was posted at 1:03 PM last Thursday).
My comment in the trading room reads “perfect structured sell down out of support in to next buy trigger”. What this means is that crude oil sold off intra day, it lost its area of support (the yellow diagonal trend line on the one minute chart model) and then dropped perfectly to the next support decision line on the chart (yellow line again) and then price bounced to test resistance.
By the way, the crude oil trade alerts are both what you see below (the Discord private server screen images below) and alerted on a private member Twitter feed.
This structure (you see below) occurred over and over again daily this week during sell-offs. This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.
Click here for an article that explains what short selling is.
This is by far one of the most predictable signals available for day-trading crude oil you will find. It has one of the highest probabilities of success in oil trade model charting.
The key to success however is learning what the structure is (having the model at your disposal for when you trade) so that you can size your trades properly and set stop orders properly etc – learning how to use the signals for your strategy and knowing when trade is likely to stop selling off so that you can then begin planning for a trend reversal.
This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.
And then in the screen shot below from the oil trading room you will see on the next chart posted to the room that oil started to bounce (or trade up) from the support (or buy trigger signal) on the chart. I then asked our software developer Jeremy to note that the software did not trigger a long trade for our coding updates to be done later that night.
Look close at his answer / comment to my request, he knew why the software did not signal a trigger for a long trade (and also why there was no trade alert as such on our member feed to buy)… it was because the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.
the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.
And sure enough, if you look at the next image below you see that they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure (next yellow line down representing next support in a sell off). Again, it was precise trade action.
they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure
Then you will notice that I alerted the oil trading room (at 1:12 PM Thursday) that the bulls are starting to buy at each support area of the one minute chart (in other words, be aware that a price reversal in intra-day trade could occur soon).
There were buy programs and/or day-traders starting to buy at supports that are not support areas for a continued sell-off, they are areas of support for either indecision (or a decision is needed) or support for trading bullish (or in an uptrend).
This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal). These lines are at the white diagonal (signals a decision area of charting) and the blue diagonal (signals bullish support) on the chart model.
Oil was trading at 57.44 on FX USOIL WTI at the time.
This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal).
And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal. I was explaining to our day traders in the room at the time (this screen shot is taken on the weekend so you don’t see who was in the oil trade room at the time in the image) what to watch for in intra-day trade action for a confirmation of trend reversal. In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.
In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.
And then in this image (screen shot from oil trading room) you see that trade hit the price target and got through resistance confirming more that the low of day in trade had been put in and that we were now alerting bias to uptrend trading signals going forward for oil trade on the day.
Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model – this is machine trade. Knowing what the large liquidity in machine trade is doing is key now when day trading crude oil. This is very important.
Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model.
Looking at the chart below you can see very clearly how precise the day trading signals are on the daytrading algorithmic crude oil model.
- The green arrows show three shorting opportunities from yellow diagonal support / resistance to the next yellow diagonal support / resistance (like stairs stepping trade down in the model).
- You will notice that the last stair down that trade over shot the yellow line a bit, this is a signal that an intra-day bottom is being put in.
- You can also notice (from the charts shown above) that as buying came in at the decision support / resistance lines (white diagonal lines on chart model) and at the blue decision diagonal support / resistance lines that I alerted a possible trend reversal in trade.
- Then you will notice (see chart below) that trade got through the yellow resistance after bouncing (yellow arrow on chart) – this is a bullish intra-day signal that a reversal is likely near.
- And then next in trade you will see that trade bounced at the blue diagonal trend-line (blue arrow) when it pulled back from resistance, a bounce at a blue line is further confirmation that trade is now bullish intra-day. The blue lines are used as support and resistance in an intra-day uptrend.
- And then the subsequent blue arrows on the chart show how trade breached in to the next bullish area, then pulled back and used the blue line as support (after confirming up after hitting a decision white line) for a bounce and then so on through the bullish trade reversal in the daytrading sequence.
- Blue is for trading in uptrend, yellow is trading a sell off, white is a reference point for a decision to go up or down in trend on the model.
- The trend-lines on this algorithm model are not conventional. The trend-lines are algorithmic calculations and therefore proprietary and not available elsewhere.
How powerful is that for an oil daytrader?
Knowing exactly where the support and resistance is during a sell-off and knowing with high probability where the turn is likely to happen for reversal in trade and then knowing exactly where to trade the uptrend.
Below is the video explanation that accompanies this post (live oil trading room footage included).
In part two (the premium member post) we will take a deeper look at strategies for trading the one minute model (such as trade sizing and seeing the reversals in advance) and I will provide chart links to the proprietary algorithmic models via email to our members.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trade Alerts, Trading, Oil Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Shorting, Support, Resistance, Reversals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO
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