How to Day Trade Crude Oil – Price Range (Low & Highs), Trends / Channels, Reversals, Sizing (Trims, Adds, Stops) and Timing – Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy (Part 2 Premium).

Introduction:

This article is part 2 of the previous public post, “How to Know & How We Alerted (In Advance) Crude Oil Intra-Day Bottom Price, Day High, Trend (PT 1)“.

I apologize for the detail in these posts, but the reality is that it takes a detailed systematic rules-based process to day trade crude oil.

You want to win in a way that provides the highest probability of win rate and return? It takes skill. Skill requires knowledge and refinement of execution.

We have been developing machine trade software for some time – this has taught us a lot, and I’m not talking about a simple trading bot kind of development.

The process of development had us trading and back testing in every time frame, every structure, every set up, every range, sequence within all, trend, order flow and more.

As we learned we shared much of this information with our clients (yes learning, after 30 years of experience).

You can read a recent client memo that explains the multi-month process we embarked on, where we are at now with development and where we are going in future here, “Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Complete | Rule-Set Strategies, Alerts, Accounts Traded, What’s Next?

The goal now is to simplify the processes (the most probable crude oil trading set-ups) and provide our clients with the most simple, clear, systematic how-to documents, videos, coaching, trading room guidance etc so that traders can duplicate what we are doing to achieve success in day to day trade.

In short, we have coded our machine trade software to trade only that which we know has the highest probability of win rate success and we will endeavor to share this with our community.

We know where we can and where we cannot win, and going forward we will only be trading that which we know with high probability that we will win.

Our machine trading software will now consistently improve its win rate (we are not experimenting going forward, we are done).

Our machine trading software will now consistently improve its return rate and over all success.

We expect this process to take about 90 trading days. After this, we expect to only be doing maintenance to the software.

So how do you duplicate what we learned? See below.

General Requirements of a Successful Oil Day Trader:

Strategy is Mandatory: When you sit down to day trade crude oil futures you need a clear plan.

  • Your trading plan has to be based in reality.
  • Reality is the nature of the instrument you are trading.
  • You can have all the plans you want, but if you do not know the nature of the instrument you are trading, you will lose.

Trading Edge: This article is a study of the nature of crude oil intra-day price action and how to execute trades so that you maintain the highest probability of success – your trading strategy edge.

  • When you acquire a trading edge for a specific instrument of trade then you become profitable. This requires knowing the nature of the instrument better than your competition, refining your process and then executing the process without thinking.
  • This is not unlike a professional tennis, football, hockey or whatever player. Think warrior, think training, think skills.You have to be able to execute – pull the trigger, without thinking. After all, your primary competitors are now machines, more specifically many are AI, and they don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Nature of the Instrument of Trade and Associated Returns: Crude oil embodies one of the most complicated (abstract) natures of trade (structure of instrument) – but also possesses one of the most profitable opportunities for a trader.

  • The structures of trade on various time-frames for crude oil are complicated but at the same time they are not, they are logical, mathematical, geometric and follow a natural order. You just need to know what that order / structure is and what the nature of trade is within each time-frame of structure.
  • Oil trading provides significant return potential because it is so structured (yet complicated for the casual observer or trader). Trade set-ups can be repeated over and over again on each time-frame daily, weekly, monthly and so on.
  • Crude oil can be traded with CL futures contracts, ETN’s on the regular equity markets (leveraged instruments of trade such as DWT and UWT) and with various other FX products and instruments. Most of which provide opportunity for leverage.

Welcome to the World Cup: I often say that if you can trade crude oil successfully, you can trade anything.

  • I am instantly bored day trading equities and swing trading equities, commodities etc now that I’ve been schooled by the best of the best AI’s and traders in crude oil futures. I still day and swing trade equities (always will), but it is like going back to grade school.

Success! So You’re an Expert Oil Trader Now.

  • An expert oil trader knows (with weighted probability) when and where to enter and exit trades (when and where to size in to his/her entries), when and where the trade should be trimmed or see adds, what the likely price trend is to be (on various time-frames), when and where price trend is likely to reverse and how to allow for appropriate variance on stops.
  • In short, an expert oil trade understands when structured timing is or is most likely to be in play for the most predictable trades and what each time-frame will look like (the nature of the structure within each time-frame). Various market timing becomes key.

Oh Wait: Fundamentals are Required.

  • Add to all the above requirements… an expert oil trader also needs a keen understanding of fundamental and geopolitical frame-works.

The Competition: Welcome to the Matrix.

  • The majority of crude oil is now traded by machine (and much of that is now sophisticated AI, and I’m not talking simple bots that you see advertised for retail traders in FX markets).
  • In short, the goal is to know what the machines (that control the most liquidity) are doing, how they trade, what decisions they are executing their trades to, etc.
  • If you know what the machines are doing you can then join the ride. You can be (with high probability) on the right side of the trade.

Master the above requirements and you then have some of the primary skills that make for a successful oil trader.

High Priority Signals / Associated Skills Needed For A Successful Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy:

Below I list in point form the signals you will need to know and then need to execute with precision. It is important to note here that the points below intertwine – in other words, the various points relate to each other symbiotically, they affect each other and become the nature of trade.

For simplicity I numbered them to assist with your study, your focus. You can use this like a check-list before entering a trade or before starting your day. Or, if you lost a trade (your discipline is off) you can review the numbered list below before taking another trade.

The information will provide you clues as to how the machine software is now coded, coded specifically to the highest probability win rate and being tweaked over the next 90 days to increase size and return to point of losing and then will be trimmed back and then idle.

The information below will provide a manual human trader the highest opportunity of success if you focus on the study needed and the repetitive training to then execute trades without thinking (with limited emotion).

The conventional and algorithmic charting required to execute the set-ups explained below are included in our client oil trading bundle (newsletters, alerts, trading room).

# 1 – Range of Trade.

Knowing the trading range is really critical for your trading strategy. Having a plan for the most probable high & low area of trade for the time-frame you are going to trade is paramount. This is accomplished with conventional and algorithmic charting.

This is the range on charting time-frames if you draw a simple horizontal line at top and bottom. Approximately where is the range?

Your positioning bias is then to be short at the top of the range and long at the bottom of the range (with many other considerations that make up your position size, where you trickle out, whether you trade the ebb and flow within the range, your stops and more).

If the over all trend is bullish you won’t size in as much on the short side of the upper range of trade on the time frame you are trading and the opposite is true if the over all trend is bearish.

It may be that you 1. enter your trade at the range limits and don’t touch the trade and exit at the opposite range. Or, 2. you may trickle out size as the trade progresses. Or, 3. you may (expert level here) even trade the ebb and flow of the range.

And then boom! you catch the trend reversal and repeat the process… over and over. Some days many times a day. This is the opportunity for an oil trader that equity traders don’t have available to them.

  • Intra-Day Trading Range. Right Now What is the Trading Range? Where is Trade Likely To Trend Next When it Reverses?
    • What is the playing field today? Knowing where the range of trade is right now on the charting, where it has been recently, where it is likely to be near future. What is the current range of trade? What is the likely trend going forward?
  • Wider Trading Range Time-Frames.
    • Knowing where the trading range is intra-day is important but also know where it has been on a wider time frame is also important to know. This is important because if trade leaves the current range you then know where the next range is likely to be.
    • Why is it important to know the trading range on various time-frames and where the trend is likely to reverse?
      • Support and Resistance. The key support and resistance areas on intra-day and wider trading ranges become key for decisions in the trade range itself – areas for entry, exits, adds, trims, sizing and more.
      • Precise Entry and Exit. Knowing the range of trade is important for high probability trade entries and exits and this can significantly increase your return on each trade (if you can enter and exit with precision).
      • Managing Stops and Sizing. Range of trade is also important for sizing your initial trade entry, trimming your trade size and / or adding to your trade. The idea here is to enter trades at the outside edges of the most probable areas / range of trade, weighing your entry size and stops more so when you are trading the most probable trend of trade and it is also important for knowing when to trickle out / trim positions as the range trade progresses.
  • Using Conventional Charting and Algorithmic Models to Determine Range.
    • Check your conventional charting on various time-frames (1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly) and do not ignore the algorithmic models (these are where the machines will bias sizing).
    • Generally an oil day trader is trading the range of the 1 minute through to 4 hour hour. I most often am using the 1, 5, 15 and 30 minute structured algorithmic models.
    • When you have an understanding of the range frame-work on conventional and algorithmic charting you are now prepared with your range trading bias for the day. You are also ready for the most probable areas of trend reversal.

# 2 Trend of Trade and Channels.

Where are the general trends of trade on various time-frames? Is price trending up or down? This can be difficult to assess when you consider the nature of crude oil – this is why the static range (as above in #1) is so important. Also, are there channels of trade in play on various time-frames?

  • Price Trends. Know What the Current Trend Is.
    • Is there a channel of trade or a range to work with? Are there channel set-ups within various time-frames of charting and times of day or week that tend to repeat?
  • Reversals. Where and when is the trend likely to end / reverse.
    • Key support and resistance areas on various time frames. Here again, range of trade, trend and trading channels.
    • Algorithmic structured time cycles. There are time cycles on each algorithmic model. You need to know these well. The machines are coded to bias trades at these time cycles. This is critical.
    • Time of day or week considerations for various markets in play or events such as EIA and daily settlement for example) and what the likely trend will be next for the continuation of your trading plan.

# 3 – Time of Day.

Time of day is critical. You need to bias your trade size, your expectation of key support and resistance being respected, your expectation of trends finding continuation etc.

  • Early futures trade. Early futures trade is usually sloppy unless there is a geopolitical event. It usually has near zero range. It usually does not respect any of the conventional or algorithmic structures on charting. Use extreme caution.
  • As Global Markets Open. As markets in Asia and Europe etc open then trade starts to get more and more structured. Usually around 3 am Eastern trade become more structured. This can start earlier at around 11:00 PM the night prior but I like to avoid trade until at least 3:00 AM Eastern.
  • The session between 3:00 AM to 7:30 AM (all approximate ranges of time) typically is a session in of itself and a reversal is very possible around 7:30. Quite often if trade has been trending up during this session then the air is slowly let out of the balloon for the hand off that occurs around 8:00 AM for the US day traders.
  • Then around 8:00 AM you will start to see volume increase significantly, especially on the half hour marks leading in to the regular US Market open.
  • At 8:30 AM, 9:00 and 9:30 this is where the trend for the morning session for the regular US market is usually determined.
  • Around 11:00 AM the trend is then consolidated for a further move up in the afternoon session, or sideways range bound trade or a reversal. The opposite of course is true.
  • Prepare for some volatility around settlement at 2:30 PM and around API Tuesday 4:30 and EIA Wednesday at 10:30 AM.
  • Friday afternoons can trend price in a way that is not possible on most days.
  • Many days you will find that late afternoon is a slow melt up, melt down or sideways. Shorting the melt up is foolish.
  • Above are just some examples.

# 4 – Intra Day Time Cycles.

Time cycles have been discussed some above. The basic consideration here is that each algorithmic model (on various time-frames) includes time cycles that are foolish to ignore. The larger the time-frame the more important the time cycle.

  • For example, there is a large time cycle on the weekly model that expired (or peaked) last week. On such a large time cycle a week either way is considered and then trend thereafter becomes weighted heavily in bias of trade.
  • Another example is the 5 minute algorithmic charting model, there are time cycle peaks every 3 hours within a specific structure. These are key to understand for a day trader. Not just where the time cycle peaks are, but the nature of trade around each peak.

The algorithmic reports and the discord member chat room are key for learning how to take advantage of the time cycles.

# 5 – Cut Losses Fast. Using Stop Losses. Sizing.

Crude oil trade is vicious. It can ruin a trader’s confidence fast. It can also destroy a trader’s account.

If you have the rules in place, you know the structure of trade, you are sizing in accordance to your threshold appropriate to your account size then you will be fine. Capital protection is by far one of the most important skills you can acquire.

For my personal account this is critical. This changes somewhat when you know that you can make up the bad trade(s) – you have the skill-set and just have to reset. But until you have the proven experience it is important to protect your capital. This discipline can also be different if you are developing software as in our case (we achieved 63% returns and then lost up to 30% in a month developing the software). But this again is different because (as in our case) when you stop developing and simply deploy software to execute to only trade what is most probable you know it will make up the losses.

But for a human trade executing mechanically (manual trades) the cut losses fast is a critical skill-set. You need to know what trade structure is in play, you need to execute to the outside ranges of that structure and you need to size appropriately. If the structure, the plan goes against you, you then need to close your position fast.

  • Stops should be set in accordance to the time-frame structure in play.
  • Understanding that the machines will hunt stops is critical. This then highlights the necessity to place stops outside that range and consider trading a range of trade with increased sizing as the trade proves itself or size in at inflections of time cycles and increased volume and immediately close if it goes against you.
  • If trading range it is better to consider giving the range room to work itself out. Add to the position as it proves out at the outside of the range and then trickle out / trim your position as it moves through the range.
  • If trading a channel on a day trading time-frame then you should be more static about your entries and exits. More rigid. The channel on lower time frames will typically work or not work. A trading range has much more “give” to the range. The edges of the range are more blurred as the time-frame gets larger and larger.

Real World Trading Examples:

Below are excerpts from Part 1 of this article (in italics) to highlight the points discussed above.

I then also include charting and explanation about how we knew where price would likely bottom on the day and reverse (to provide one example).

Future posts will focus us down on real world examples from the live trading room and we’ll refine each trade set up and trading discipline skill one at a time, over and over again until you are winning at least 80% of your trades and over time you can then increase your trading size and returns.

I will include chart / screen shot (captures) but won’t provide charting links for proprietary algorithmic models in this post, members receive these regularly on email.

Low of Day Price & Reversal Trade Signal / Set Up .

Knowing with high probability where the low or high of day price will likely be is a great skill to have as an oil day trader. It will provide confidence in trade, allow for sizing considerations and so much more. Below is an example from our private oil trading chat discord server, trading room and oil alert feed.

Our traders learn how to set up their strategy, watch for the signals on the charting etc from the newsletter reports, charting updates continually sent out, guidance in the discord chat room, voice broadcast in oil trading room and alerts on the Twitter private feed.

At 10:54 AM I alert the oil trading room (with voice broadcast and charting), the oil chat room (see screen capture image below) and alert to the member Twitter feed (screen shot below) that we are looking at the 50.84 area of FX USOIL WTI for possible long trade (trend reversal) for a possible bottom price area on the day. We trade CL futures but alert on USOIL WTI for consistency between instruments of trade for crude oil.

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

oil, trade, alert Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.[/caption]

How Did We Know Where Oil Trade Was Likely to Bottom on The Day?

We have structured models on all time frames. In this instance the EPIC Algorithmic Model on the 30 Minute provided the primary structure. Oil trade was trading down after the EIA numbers were released and we simply looked to the bottom of the current trading quad structure. We then cross reference the structure of support with trading models for larger time-frames and lower time-frames and as price nears the target area we look at time frames on smaller and smaller models.

When price action confirms on the 1 minute model, increasing volume is apparent, the order flow is confirmed (machine liquidity is entering from the markets in to the trade) then we start our trade and/or our machine software begins to trade.

Below is the EPIC Oil Algorithm 30 Minute Model. Many areas of structured support were hit and then price ran up approximately 150 ticks for a complete move from the bottom of the quadrant to the top of the trading quad. Perfect set-up.

The orange arrow is where price hit the machine execution line (where the larger liquidity players normally have machines coded to begin large entries), then trade confirmed above the swing trading wider range indicator on the model (the thick gray horizontal line) and then further confirmed at a considerable historical support (purple horizontal line).

low of day, price, reversal, crude, oil

Determining low of day crude oil price for reversal. Algorithm area of support, swing support, historical support.

Then at 11:54 the price of oil drops in to the area previously alerts, spikes down with a flash and trade reverses. In the oil chat room screen shot below you can see I alerted our long oil trade (machine trade in this instance) in the 50.70s and then the machine trade closed and fired a few other times. This ended up in fact being the low of day in trade. I had alerted that I was looking at the 50.84 area and price hit 50.70s and reversed.

Software fired in there 50.70 s to closing 50.90 s, I didn’t but we’ll see if it holds the range for a bounce.

oil trading room, alert, bottom price, trend reversal area Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.[/caption]

You can also see in the screen shot that I was sharing various chart set-ups to help our traders with their trading strategies for the day so they knew where the structured areas of support, resistance etc were.

Then at 12:07 PM I alerted to the oil trading room by voice broadcast, chat room with charting and on live alert feed that the structure of trade had improved and that we expected that the low of day for trade had in fact been put in confirming a reversal.

improved structure, likely near term low in

oil, trade, alert, price, reversal

Oil trade alert, trading room alert low of day price crude oil reversal trend in play.

Then shortly after 12:00 I alerted (to live trading room, chat room, alert feed) that there was a time cycle peak coming at 2:15 (in other words if you are long on the reversal from the day lows that 2:15 would be the area of time on the day for a high for your price targeting on the trade).

I also gave the resistance levels between where trade was at near the bottom of the trading quad (near the reversal area at bottom) and where we seen the top price target of trade. In other words, if you are long the trade watch for the 20 MA on the 5 minute chart above and the mid quad (mid channel) resistance on the 30 minute EPIC model chart.

2:15 time cycle should be the top on any retrace up on the day
20 MA on 5 min overhead
2:15 PM time cycle most bullish scenario we have is 51.90 (mid channel on EPIC quad) trading 51.32
body of 30 min candle at machine line

Then after the resistance areas are overcome in uptrend trade on the day at 1:20 PM (in advance of the 2:15 time cycle peak) I alert in more detail the various price target areas that represent various model charts on different time-frames so that our traders know exactly what levels to watch as price nears both time and region of trade for our trending price targets for the day trade.

Resistance we are watching intra 51.86 mid channel EPIC, 52.14 5 min, 52.10 on 1 min, 2:15 time cycle peak, just hit 51.81 intra. Nice reversal intra in the EPIC quad from just below support of area we had marked. Also watching for signals for longer term trend reversal possibilities.

oil trading room, trade alert, reversal, price target

Screen shot oil trading room trade alert high of day price target timing for reversal for oil trading strategy.

Image capture below from oil trade chat room shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted.

oil trade alert, trend, price target, time cycle

Image shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted

Image below from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets. The first image is the 30 minute EPIC algorithm chart model showing a strong bounce off the bottom area of the quadrant (the alerted price reversal area).

Strong signal the trend on wider time frame is in reversal mode with action seen in this quad today really clean

And because the bounce is so strong and structured properly in the quad that traders could start possibly looking at larger time frame charting for a possible trend reversal and possible price targets in that scenario.

maybe one quad more down but that would be it if so imo
60.41 would be trend reversal target, trading 51.91, 850 ticks ish
sorry its 59.22

trading room, oil trade alert, price targets, reversal, trend

Image from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets.

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action. Normally we would explain or alert this as it was happening live, however, in today’s scenario I was doing double duty coding so I was sure to show our traders where / how they could confirm that the intra-day trend (for in future trading strategy) was still in play.

After two hits to the trend then the HFT programs set their confirmation pivot and continue trend. This confirms that a trade can continue looking in to the trend for the day, the price targets for day high and time cycle peak for the day.

this is where the HFTs hammered down today, after two hits to 1 min channel support and hit to 1 min range they hammered down

oil trading room, signals, HFT, confirmation of trend, alert

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action.

Two chart images below of crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in 30 Minute EPIC model. This week the trade is much more structured confirming signals that I will include in Part 2 of this report.

Last weeks quad action

This week quad action

oil charts, models, signal, confirmations

Two chart images for crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in model. Confirming signals.

The final two images below show that price did in fact spike in to the time cycle peak for 2:15 PM and did reverse in this area of oil trade for a short opportunity as we had alerted much earlier in the day.

peaking in to time cycle intra

trend reversal, alert, oil, trading room, charts

The final two trading room images below show that price time cycle reversal oil trade short alerted earlier.

Below is the raw oil trading room video feed, if you are learning to trade oil you can correlate the time stamp you see on the images above to the time stamp on the video so you can scroll through the video to specifically what I was saying in the trading room during each alert period. The video below is only a raw feed and I am not broadcasting on mic all day – only when there are alerts and or trades in play (this is why I mention the time stamps). I only include the video because newer students of trade can utilize the live video (and associated comments and charting) to learn, but it is not packaged in short form so you have to dig a bit.

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Reversals, Trend, Time of Day, Time Cycles, Channels, Trims, Adds, Stop Orders.

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The Crude Oil Machine Trading Software Is Complete.

The information below (in advance of the official white paper) provides a summary of the development process to date, the rule-set (strategies) the code executes oil trades to, what the oil trade alerts will look like on your feed, returns expected on accounts traded and what we have planned in future.

June 13, 2019

As noted above, we have now completed the main structure of the coding for our crude oil trading.

We have previously messaged that we were either close or right at being complete only to find ourselves back down another rabbit hole. This time is actually different, we are done the primary architecture coding, we only have updates (tweaks) remaining. We expect the bulk of that to last at most ninety days.

The software includes eighteen structured algorithmic models (representing time frames from 1 minute charting to weekly), specific high probable trade set-ups, trade sequences within set-ups, order flow analysis, trend (channel) structures on each time-frame and range structures on each time-frame.

The trends (channels) and range trade structures are given the most weight within the decision process of the rule-set. The larger the structure (time-frame) the more weight for sizing and stop loss range. The models, set-ups. sequences and order flow have much less weight in the code.

This (the weights) described above will manifest in trade activity in such a way that trade will become more active and in greater size with the larger the structure. For example, the trending channel from late December 2018 to recent would be a considerable structure within the code and as such the code would size in to that channel at the support and resistance widths of range.

The white paper that we will publish soon will detail the rule-set in such a way that our clients will be able to follow along with the machine trade and understand the protocol that it is executing. This is the first stage for the architecture needed for our trader digital dash board we intend to develop soon.

As the days and weeks go on the software will fire more regularly and will begin to size considerably more than right now because it is coded to weigh decisions within trade trends, structures etc. As the trade set-ups develop the code will fire on them. Obviously the largest structures will be at the end of this start up process. The last few days it has been firing on 1 min, 5, 15 and 30 minute structures.

At first we expect the returns to be approximately .5% per day (if averaged over 30 trading days) increasing to well over 1% per day at most 90 trading days in to the launch. We have tested the code in advance and are confident with this. Depending on our success with “tweaks” the returns could escalate to near 3% per day, we are however more conservative and expect 1%-1.5%.

We are significantly more confident with this version of code simply because we have been down the rabbit hole on every time frame, in every structure, every set up, every order flow sequence on all time cycles competing with the best machines in the world.

We have been there, we went to battle in every arena, we know where we can win and where we cannot. The final version of code will only fire in arenas that we expect 80% + win rate. The larger the structure the larger the return as the software fires through the sequence with the structure.

We tested code on every time frame, in every algorithmic model, every order flow structure and so on and so on. We left no stone unturned.

There are areas of trade in the oil markets (smallest time frames) that are so competitive it would dazzle your mind. The AI’s that are firing in the smallest of time frames are doing so in a way that no trader can imagine. Every time we completed a sequence of trade in the most competitive areas (time-frames) we were schooled in the most advanced AI machine trade the world has to offer. It is manifested in a way no trader would ever expect. Here’s a hint, imagine getting beat every time, in a new way every time and every new way you got beat was a structured, logical, mathematically sound way and the ways seem endless.

Our final crude oil trade code is well outside those areas of competition.

The alerts on the Twitter client feed, in the oil trading room and on the private Discord server will continue to have “M” in the alert if it is a machine driven trade and if I (Curt) am trading I will also identify the alert detail as such. As the days go on the protocol (trade set up) detail will get more and more detailed so that our clients can follow along with clarity.

See also:

Press: SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

What’s next?

The next ninety days is for tweaking the code – refining the execution of sequences within structures of trade.

Then near term we will be looking at the trader’s digital platform and API’s etc and then….

AND THEN…. YES, WE HAVE DECIDED to BUILD SOFTWARE FOR BITCOIN MACHINE TRADE. 

This will obviously lead our developers in to other crypto-currencies also.

Any questions send me an email compoundtradigofficial@gmail.com.

Thanks

Curt

Oil Trading Academy:

If you would like to learn more about how to trade oil, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: AI, machine trading, trade, software, crude, oil, BTC, Bitcoin, Oil Trading Room, Oil Trade Alerts, Strategy

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Mastering Crude Oil Intra-Day Moves – The Regular USA Market Open Provides Significant Range of Trade and Opportunity for Profitable Day Trades.

This in depth article series looks closer at trade strategies oil traders can use to gain an edge. We are currently coding these specific set-ups to our machine trading software.

Mechanical (human) traders can also learn from this process and use the methods in day trading, trend following and swing trade planning.

We hope to produce one article per week in this series.

Article Structure (Part 1, 2, 3…).

Each article will cover a specific oil trading strategy (set-up) and will include at least 3 parts.

  • Part 1 – Public facing unlocked post that outlines the general trade set-up and generally how the set-up can be traded (in most instances this will include some conventional charting, the chart links for live chart sharing are included in Part 2).
  • Part 2 – Premium member post (locked) that will explain in detail the technical set-up on conventional and algorithmic chart models and how to specifically execute each trade to gain an edge (timing each trade entry, sizing, trimming and adding to positions, technical indicators and more). We will also look at the week to come and how to plan your trading.
  • Part 3 – Each trading strategy will include at least one follow-up article to review real world trading examples from our live oil trading room (live video examples with voice broadcast from our lead trader, chat room logs, live alert screen shots, order sizing, profit and loss and more).

Specifically in this article we look closely at the regular USA equity market open and how to day trade momentum during this important time in crude oil trade.

A List of Common Strategies Used to Day-Trade Crude Oil (Point Form).

There are a number of ways (strategies, methods) a trader can use and refine to gain an edge when trading crude oil. Some examples include and are not limited to;

  • Trend Following / Swing Trading within trending price of oil on various charting time-frames within trading channels. For example, the price of oil has followed a channel on larger time frames (4 hour, daily, weekly etc) since December 24, 2018. The price of oil followed the channel from lows of 42.44 on December 24, 2018 to highs of 66.64 on April 23, 2019 (charted on FX USOIL WTI below). On Friday oil closed 61.69 to end the week. Price has been consolidating / moving sideways over the last week.
  • Price Range Trading. Be prepared to take long trades near oil chart time-frame lows and shorting near the price range highs.
  • Price Reversal Trades (Snap-Back Trades). Crude Oil Intra-Day Sell-offs offer a great opportunity for a reversal day trade long (with significant opportunity for gains intra-day, as do intra-day tops in price). The key is knowing how to trade this set-up.
  • Technical Chart Trading – Conventional and Algorithmic Models. This may include trading Fibonacci levels, VWAP, MACD, Stochastic, Candle Stick Patterns, structured Algorithmic Models and much more.
  • Day Trading Time-of-Day Trend Inflections during market event timing such as when regular equity markets open around the world. Specifically in this article we look at the USA regular equity day market open. There are other examples such as other global market openings, EIA at 10:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday (the crude oil inventory report), API report at 4:30 PM Tuesday, daily 2:30 EST settlement, 6:00 PM futures open and more.
    • crude, oil, sell off, market open, trade

      Tues May 7 crude oil price sells off at regular market open over 80 points to reverse more than 100 points intraday.

  • There are many other examples such as; inventory levels, summer driving season, tanker movement, Geo Political events, market sentiment and more.

Example – Day Trading the Regular Market Open Momentum Strategy. Lets Start with Reviewing Oil Trade From Last Week.

On Monday May 6 (to start the week) crude oil market open momentum set-up sees crude oil trade from 61.24 at 9:27 AM – 61.90 at 10:17 AM, a progressive increase in price from overnight futures session after a late week sell off the week prior. A 66 tick early day move in price.

The opportunity was a 66 tick move on a long side trade at open and then the retrace was as big of a move and then price ran after that through the rest of the regular trading session.

Just the open momentum trade and retrace (lasting just over an hour) was an opportunity for over 100 ticks. That’s a serious opportunity, and it isn’t unusual. In real dollar terms with one contract in CL that equates to a 1,000.00 USD (approximate) gain at market open (if you can learn to trade it predictably).

The one minute oil chart below shows the trade action at market open.

daytrading, crude, oil, strategy, market open

Monday May 6 to start the week crude oil market open momentum has crude oil trade 61.24 – 61.90.

Monday morning was a long trade until 10:17 AM, the momentum started right before open at 9:27 AM, it was (in general on an intra-day time-frame) a follow-through momentum trade from overnight futures the night prior. Sunday night trade melted up after a sell-off late the week prior.

The overnight trend trade strategy will be dealt with in detail in a near future post. For now, the main takeaway here is to follow the intra-day trend until it breaks (generally speaking your bias should be toward trend).

In this instance, price then (after the overnight move and the market open move) went on to trend up through the regular day session for significant gains.

market open, trade, strategy, trend

Monday morning was long crude oil trade follow-through momentum from futures the night before.

How to Trade It – Indications to Confirm Trading Crude Oil Long at Regular Session Open.

Lets look at some conventional charting indicators and then in the follow up Part 2 of this article we will take a close look at our algorithmic model indications that can help confirm direction of trade, sizing, range and more.

  1. Trade In Direction of Intra-day Trend. As above, intra-day trend was for a long bias in oil trade in to open.
  2. Chart Indicators. Conventional chart indicators for day-trading crude oil – Stochastic RSI, MACD, SQZ MOM, Volume, Momentum, Moving Averages, Candle Stick Patterns etc. The one minute chart provides perspective / confirmation of how difficult it is to day trade crude oil with only conventional indicators and conventional charting. The indicators and charting can help, but the indicators (such as Stochastic RSI, MACD, SQZ MOM) can also hinder bias. You’ll notice the selling retrace prior to open that started around 7:00 AM that the Stochastic, MACD and SQZ MOM all confirmed properly that price was selling off (albeit they are trailing indicators) but when price started to trade up they were at best indecisive. And when the regular market open came and price continued to trade up the SQZMOM was turning down, the MACD was indecisive and the Stochastic RSI moved up. Bottom line, it is not easy to use these simple charting indicators. Volume came in progressively in to open – that was a bullish signal and price was upside of all the moving averages (a positive sign for a short term bullish bias in a momentum scenario). All-in-all bias should have been to the long side, but it was no easy trade. Structured charting (conventional and algorithmic) provides a better road map with detailed support and resistance levels so that you can direct your trade accordingly. You can weigh important support and resistance against intra-day trade, sizing and various other decisions. Also of note, the candle sticks did provide some clue, like the long wick prior to selling, the double bottom and top candlesticks and so on. But they only provide clues and should carry little weight on a one minute time-frame.
  3. The Psychology of Round Numbers and Time of Day Trading. When price turned down at around 7:40 AM (nearing that time of day when traders start looking toward the US regular market open) oil was trading at 61.62 (which is just north of 61.50 and doesn’t provide for optimum range at open), optimum range is a full 100 ticks, 40 ticks isn’t consider a great open range and 50 ticks isn’t ideal so “lets sell off to 61.00 for a move to 62.00” is the general mentality of the mass. Yes, it can be this simple. Simple, yet difficult to execute. Then as 9:00 AM nears the price is now nearing 61.00 as it slowly sells down (trading at 61.09) and like magic you get two solid candles and the sell down stops. Trade then struggled with the 200 MA and also as it neared the previous premarket highs as the regular market open neared and then at regular session open price and volume drove the price of oil from 61.41 to 61.89. 61.89 is nearing 62.00 and selling pressure starts. Then price sells off and returns to the session open range once again. This is not an easy premarket, run in to regular market open, market open momentum and topping trade. Experts can trade it (especially with sophisticated models), but not easy even for an expert.

    conventional, crude, oil, daytrading, chart, market open

    Conventional chart indicators for daytrading crude oil, Stochastic, MACD, SQZ MOM, volume, moving averages, candle sticks etc.

  4. Sentiment. After a brief pull back, crude oil then trades from 61.40 – 62.90 on short term geo political and market sentiment. 150 tick move.

    crude oil, daytrading, sentiment

    After a brief pull back, crude oil then trades from 61.40 – 62.90 on trade war sentiment and optimism. 150 tick move.

  5. Range of Trade. Be aware of the near term historical range of trade. You can see on the 30 min chart below that crude oil trade found support at a key horizontal historical support and diagonal trend-line. and ran to a key price range resistance.The chart used is derived from the long term trend line chart shown below this one.

    crude, oil, trading, range

    Crude oil trade found support at a key horizontal historical support and diagonal trend-line. and ran to a key price range resistance.

  6. Trading Price Channels. Below is the long term chart trending channel that has been consistently trading since Dec 24, 2017 and more recently come under pressure.
    crude oil, channel, trend, swing trade

    Swing trading channel trends, price of oil has followed a channel since December 24, 2018. FX USOIL WTI CL_F USO UWT DWT

    Another example is this simple 15 minute channel trend chart. This 15 min oil chart shows the move in Monday trade from the channel support to just over channel resistance.

    crude, oil, channel, chart, trading

    This 15 min oil chart shows the move in Monday trade from the channel support to just over channel resistance.

  7. Chart Structures. All of the various charting provides trading structure clues for range of trade to weigh trade risk sizing against various support and resistance. In Part 2 of this article we look at the algorithmic chart models and other conventional charting for last week and the week to come.

Conclusion.

Having a good handle on the charting for the specific time-frame you are trading is important. Conventional and algorithmic charting can be used. Also having a good understanding of market sentiment, general trade trend direction, market timing and more can help you win.

In Part 2 we dive deeper in to how to day-trade the regular session market open momentum. It will be sent to premium Oil trading bundle and stand alone newsletter members before regular session open Monday morning!

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Futures, Strategy, Signals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO, Market Open, Momentum

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I Have Been Down the Rabbit Hole. 

I know my journey (of the last two and a half years) few have traveled. I know this to be so, like I know I breathe.

I didn’t know before I went down that hole, but I know now – how much I did not know before I went down that hole. And it’s huge. I knew nothing. Few know anything.

I can’t imagine many other disciplines in the world as off-side as this. Nothing, and I mean nothing in regular market banter, conventional stock exchange media or social media ever deals with the reality of what is down that hole. They don’t even know there is a hole (most).

Why is this topic of any importance to a trader or investor?

The topic? A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and that will matter before the humans know it mattered.

A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and

that will matter before the humans know it mattered.

Assuming the 80/20 rule applies to the markets, then 20 percent win 80 percent of the trades and reap 80% of the reward (ROE). I don’t know what the real numbers are – it was likely closer to 90/10 before machine learning entered the public stock markets. I would venture to guess it’s 97/3 or so now. But I don’t know.

The problem looks like this… what happens when the machines (run by less than .001% – a guess) garner 90% or more of the market return? Is that possible? I know it is, I know it may be true now, and if not it isn’t far away. What percentage of current liquidity is machine learning trade driven? What percentage of that is on the win side?

What does that look like in the future? How far away is that future? I will bet that future is here now and it has enormous effect on your earning potential (as a human trader). And I will put forward right here that it will end the way humans trade in global markets about five years out. It already has, the humans just haven’t accepted reality.

So why then is this so important? We’re here to win. We trade to win. To earn. To see return on equity. Return on time. The path forward is critical for any trader that derives their income from trading.

Early adopters will win. They will win because they will develop relationships with firms that will provide solutions. They will win because they will adopt the technology, relationships, financial rewards before the technology is out of reach (financially speaking). Or perhaps, never available at certain levels of society. Never available is more likely.

Early adopters will win.

The market is already littered with technology built on poor science. It simply doesn’t work. But the firms that have figured it out… have really figured it out. How long does it take them to hit market capacity? Will they share the technology? I say no, they won’t be sharing.

There are many questions.

At minimum, it’s prudent in my view for a trader to cozy up to the developers. This isn’t a sales pitch, we’re beyond selling anyone. We’ve completed our first machine learning software – we don’t need to sell you. So why write this article? Because I want to share something I’ve learned in the process of development that I think is of critical importance to anyone that has followed our journey. I feel a responsibility to share. Share what  you ask?

You can’t beat the machines. It’s not possible. And I know. I’m a damn good trader and I can’t even beat our first generation software with crude oil futures trade. I don’t think it has lost a trade this month (maybe it has but I don’t think so) and we’re near three weeks in to the month. And it’s not that it hasn’t lost, it is more about how it wins.

It knows before I do. It enters before I do. It trims in to positions and exits when I wouldn’t. It knows things I can’t know, I can’t see. It sees every line on every book in the library instantly, while I search for the right book on the shelf.

It sees every line on every book in the library instantly,

while I search for the right book on the shelf.

How you ask? It has intuitive like capabilities (as I do) but it can process the decisions (as if intuitively) many times faster than I. It has systematic approaches to trade (as do I) but it can process the decisions on thirteen time-frames considering the historical structure of the financial instrument and how each time-frame relates to the next and which structure or time-frame should trump various trade execution decisions (the rule-set).

It is simply faster. It can process 8000 rules and how each rule relates to the next in each of the structures on each time-frame instantaneously. That instantaneous decision would take me at least 12 months full time of charting, historical back testing and deep thought to conclude that one decision. The machine executed on the decision and left the trade behind before I glanced over and seen it was over. I didn’t have time to acknowledge it was leaving the scene.

It’s not only faster, but precise. It enters and exits with absolute precision.

Yesterday (President’s Day holiday) it executed on one trade. The biggest move of the day on a slow day and it executed before the move happened. It shorted oil, I sat watching thinking why the heck is it short here? Tick tock tick tock boom, oil dropped about 37 points near instant, on a low range boring holiday trading day. And it covered in a flash before I could process why exiting the trade at that juncture of trade on the chart was valid. It is fast and it acts as if it is intuitive. And it is only first generation software.

Here’s a post that shows the trade;

A trade or two prior to yesterday’s was the same way. I couldn’t believe what I was watching.

Here’s another example, it knows over and over again where the real move in a time frame is before the move.

And an example of how precise it is in comparison to my personal trade executions;

It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in oil trade account gains and it was yoked to a human at all times that throttled its executions by about 10 to 1. What am I saying? It could have traded up to 10x the return (assuming the same win rate and ROE on each trade would have transpired had it been non-yolked).

It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in account gains.

Over the last few days we’ve allowed it autonomy – to a point. It can execute with autonomy when it is executing but we still have it throttled to about 5 to 1, this will be slowly adjusted / released. This week is a holiday week so there is issue in the structure of the models so it will be a slower than usual machine trading week for our model, but next week will be a mad house – a slaughter house. I’m not exaggerating. It doesn’t lose. Okay, it does – maybe, but rarely and for next to nothing for loss when and if it does. If it’s wrong… its out and fast.

If you think this is exaggeration, visit our public facing Discord trading chat room (click here) and randomly ask anyone to step forward and tell you I’m wrong (members I am referring to). Or check out the alert feed yourself. I win around 90% of my personally executed trades in oil (yes documented), it (the machine learning software) wins something nearing 100%. But its wins are the real meat of each trade. My trades are choppy. It harvests the move in a way I cannot. The compound return effect on the difference is astronomical. Click here for a recent article I posted about compound trading gains in oil trade.

We have been working day and night for over two years to develop machine trading software that really works. Why do I say “that really works?” Because most is garbage. Below are the reasons why most algorithmic trading is a waste (how ours was developed) and why you the human trader cannot beat real machine trading execution in the stock market.

Take four people (average at any given time in the development process), have them work 60 – 80 hours a week for 2.5 years. That’s about 14,000 hours. If the methodology used is right you then have at least another 14,000 hours to refine the software rule-set along with constant updates etc. We have now completed the first 14,000 hours. What has that experience taught me? Primarily that a human trader will never beat machine software. And that doesn’t consider machine software that becomes intuitive like – AI, Artificial Intelligence.

Here are just a few (and I mean a few) reasons why you will never out trade the machine – specific to the methodology of development we used to develop our first machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts CL. Yes, I am going to tell you how we did it. Why? Because I won’t tell you how our intuitive development is implemented, that is proprietary and always will be. Here’s the nuts and bolts:

  1. ROI – First month the machine garnered a 63% increase in trade account size and that was only the actionable oil trade alerts. Not the machine HFT returns. This means the software executed many more trades than what was alerted. We can only alert what a human can type fast enough to alert that could be actionable for our membership. Next on our list is a real-time feed for our members (automated alerts). In other words, the machine gained much more than 63% on its trading account, but that is private and always will be. What is public is what we alert that is actionable by a human trader executing trades manually. We are judged on what data can deliver as actionable to our clients.
  2. INSTANT EXECUTION OF DEEP TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE – Take thirteen time-frames of crude oil (the charts) and find the structure of the financial instrument on each time frame (this is not systematic machine trading, this is an intuitive like process). Not to mention the time involved and cost. The human can’t process decisions on thirteen time-frames (both systematic and intuitive like and as they relate to each other, as described earlier in this article).
  3. INTUITIVE EXECUTION, INSTANT – Each time frame structure as it relates to each other. Continuing specifically the intuitive like component of point 2 above… imagine constructing the models for the structure of the financial trading instrument on thirteen time frames, that in of itself is a massive undertaking. Then being able to almost intuitively determine how intra-day trade relates to each and which trumps the other. This is massive.
  4. FAST EXECUTION. The machine can out execute any human with orders in and out and trailing and on and on. Complex structures of entries and exits and more instantaneously. This is critical for return on each trade.
  5. PRECISE EXECUTION. Have you ever watched crude oil trade on the one minute chart? Precise execution with orders that change frequently in a flash of a second increases returns on each trade considerably. You can’t imagine the importance until you’ve been down the hole.

I am not speaking to;

I’m not speaking to conventional hedge fund robo adviser software. Most of it is junk designed to rob the masses taking advantage of the casino mind or lazy investor.

I’m not speaking to high frequency trading that leverages machine speed, order flow or execution locality. That is a form of HFT we have no interest in. We want transferable knowledge as it applies to the natural trading structure of the financial markets. Transferable in that the process used to derive the model for one can be applied to another.

I’m not speaking to run of the mill python code some random developed in his/her basement with 500.00 and an idea of how an instrument trades (the systematic process).

And finally, I am not speaking to the news oriented bots running software trades on intra-day media or geopolitical driven events.

The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning.

The intuitive like component, beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies. The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning. It is (as it applies to where we are now) the early building blocks of autonomous machine learning trade.

Beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies.

How did we get intuitive like software to work? What does intuitive like mean to us?

Here’s a glimpse… a real trader with decades of experience traded real-time for hundreds of hours live with software developers that extracted the intuitive like human understanding – real-time, asking questions, engaging in the why and how at each tick in the chart.

We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code. Only now… we have manifold times more horse-power.

We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code.

The new brain – the new trader, the intuitive like software… can execute hundreds of times faster on thousands of times the information second by second. Every tick on the chart is a complete new set of rules that need confronting, they need to be examined from every angle, back tested, related to each time frame, a plan derived and a trade has to executed right now. A series of right now. With precision.

The bullet hits before you hear it.

This is why the human will never beat (real) machine learning trade software. The only question that determines how good the software is, is how good the trader was that the developers used to extract from that created the entity (the software) and what process was used to do that. The cost? 14,000 – 28,000 hours at hundreds of dollars per hour – for a generation one package. And that is just the start.

It is a different world and we’re not by far the first out of the gate. But I know we’re running one of the better models out there. That I do know. Because it wins when it goes in to battle.

Any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier.

I also know that any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier. If you don’t you will regret not taking the time to forge your future. Now.

Best and peace,

Curt

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Trader Services – Compound Trading Group provides trader data services such as algorithm development, periodicals, trade coaching, trade alerts and live trading rooms. The near term objective is a digital dashboard environment for traders to fully engage machine trade and intelligent assisted trade data offered only at the commercial enterprise level.

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Large Account Crude Oil Trading Alerts Profit Loss for January 2019.

January Oil Trade Profit / Loss Summary. The profit on our oil trading alerted trades is achieving excellent return for us and our alert clients.

After months of back testing on all time frames and our trading process is now getting locked in for machine trading and manually executed trading for both day trading and swing trading crude oil futures contracts. As such, we will start publishing profit loss reporting for the near term. This will be a series of documents from here forward.

About. We trade many accounts for many different reasons. We are coding software to machine trade on various rule-sets on various time-frames. We are also developing rule-sets (process driven trading) for our traders that have no intention of using our software, that prefer to execute trades manually.

Account Size, Trade Size. Below is the large account profit/loss and the follow up document to this is the small account for the same time period. The large account trades 10 contract size and the small account trades 1 contract size.

It is much more difficult to build a small crude oil futures trading account at 1 contract size than it is to trade and build on a larger 10 contract size account. The returns are significantly different. Studying the two profit/loss statements will help you understand why (small account statement will be released soon). Small accounts have to be traded differently.

Win Rate. Our win side percentage is now consistently well over 90%. Live alerted, recorded in the trading room and permanently logged in our library for members to learn our process of trade and verify, executed live in oil trading room with live voice broadcast and screen sharing with charting, and guidance discussion in the oil trading chat room server on Discord.

Returns. Is it possible to double accounts every 30 days? Review the trade alerts below and decide for yourself.

The Goal is to Provide a Winning Oil Trade Process Specific to Your Risk Threshold and Style. Currently, our focus is assisting our client members with an oil day-trading process and a swing trading process that is easy to learn, reproduce, executed manually that provides a high probability of success.

The day-trading method being used currently is on a one minute time frame chart model that also references the primary EPIC Oil Algorithm model that is a 30 minute chart model and also other time-frame models are used (such as 4 hour, daily, weekly, monthly etc) for consideration to trade size as it applies to key resistance and support areas in the trade of crude oil. Refer to our rule-set (to be published soon) and/or client reports for more detail.

The alerts below can be cross-referenced to the time of day in our oil trading discord chart server and much more learning / data gleaned. There is significant charting of models and guidance to the trades in that server. The learning trader has a massive resource to draw on by methodically studying and cross referencing the data from the alert feed, the server, videos and regular reporting circulars (that will now include rule-set modules).

Our Trade Alerts and Development of The Process is Transparent, Recorded, Time Stamped. The development of the rule-set(s), charting and guidance we provide our trading clients is transparently shared by our staff in our client private Discord oil chart server (the oil trading chat server is included in our oil trading bundle).

The trade alerts below are the whole of the alerts for the month. None have been removed. Various guidance is not included to keep the document as short as possible.

The actual trades are executed by our lead trader and/or software development staff live in our live trading room with live voice broadcast and screen share charting etc.

The oil trade alerts are deployed on a private member oil trade alert Twitter feed (the alerts are provided as a stand-alone service or as a part of the trading bundle with oil chat and weekly reporting).

The various oil trading services are detailed here (click).

Simple Risk Threshold Tool. The intent of producing a profit / loss over view (as you see below) is specifically for our clients to easily determine which method of trade (day trading, short term swing trades (intra day), swing trading, trend trading etc) best suits their trading style and goals.

As such, the profit / loss summary below uses rounded figures (derived with simplicity in mind) for each entry for ease of calculation for trading plan development. Our actual accounts include many more trades, below we only represent the trades we have alerted to our member base – we include below only that which affects the profit / loss of our member clients. Our accounts are private.

Our lead trader (our associate traders) will, at any given time, operate a variety of accounts representing compound trading, swing trading, momentum trading and testing for algorithms and more. This may or may not include cash / leverage accounts, commodity accounts, crypto exchange accounts, paper trade accounts and various algorithmic back testing and simulation accounts and shares the P&L and trade entries and exits in a transparent manner to ensure success (or lack therein) of the algorithms or trade accounts is for the purpose of trader and program development initiatives. https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/

Instruments of Trade. All quotes on our trade alerts are referencing price on FX USOIL WTI and traded on continuous CL futures contracts unless otherwise noted. This is to provide our clients one charting source to refer to as there are many instruments available to trade crude oil. Our algorithm models are developed on and charted on FX USOIL WTI on Trading View (the working models).

Trade Alert Language. The letter “M” denotes a machine trade, otherwise the trade is by our lead trader manually executed. If HFT is noted in the alert, this type of trade (machine executed) can have many high frequency trades in and out of the position. We note this for clients so they are aware but we do not alert every high frequency trade as this would not help our clients on this type of platform. In the near future we will have a manner in which our clients will be able to view the machine trade high frequency trade on a digital platform live.

Trading Style of Lead Trader / Risk Threshold / Goals and Associated Returns. It is important for viewers to know that the lead trader is executing trades with the highest possible probability of win side trade with the lowest amount of risk. A review of the private oil member server discussion will quickly bring to light for any trader that anyone with a slightly higher risk threshold than our lead trader will see returns much higher. Review our feed and determine for yourself, but it is readily transparent that if a trader can accept a 10% loss for significantly higher return trades that much greater return than what you will review below is not just possible but probable – as long as you cut fast when a trade has broken down.

We are a Data Provider Primarily to Serious Retail traders and Private Trading Firms (Commercial Enterprise). We provide service to retail, commercial enterprise (private trading firms) and institutional members. The institutional and commercial enterprise clients primarily utilize our live trading room for their trade alerts. We also provide a direct alert feed for each member client at the commercial / institutional level that also includes per user licensing, training, modified charting structures, support services and more. Our retail clients use our Twitter feed, some use our Discord chat and some the live trading room. Most are subscribed to the bundle service (weekly reporting, oil trading room, Twitter feed as a bundle).

Our Trading Firm Structure. We sell data and we trade our own accounts, we do not trade a fund account of any type or manner or on behalf of anyone or any firm. We are not investment advisers, we are data providers. Many of our commercial enterprise clients do however trade on behalf of their clients or as a part of a fund arrangement. In short, they use our data (charting, alerts and soon machine learning software) to execute trades. We can refer you to any of these enterprises if you are sourcing this type of service.

Proprietary Data. Below we leave out critical direction, methods and process driven explanation as we are entering a new phase in our development. Soon (prior to end of February) we will be contracting our clients to non disclosure, non compete and other forms of contract relations to protect our membership and stake holders on whole.

Price Increases (non existing clients). Price increases will be announced before the end of February 2019. Existing member / client fees do not escalate as we develop our platform as long as the subscription does not lapse. It is our early adopter promise.

Time Zones. The time stamp on Twitter, in Discord, in Trading Room and / or on various screen shots will either be Eastern New York or one hour later (as our lead trader is currently in the Dominican Republic).

Is it possible to double accounts every 30 days – 60 days? Review the trade alerts below and decide for yourself.

Oil Trade Alert #1. High Frequency Machine Trading Alert.

Context for this trade is also on alert feed (not shown here to keep this document from being the size of a book), in the private discord oil chat room server, documented on the live trading room video (that provides more specific detail to each execution than the alert feed below that is missing execution data) and combined with lead trader alerts in alert # 2 below. The coding team advises the clients that HFT alerts are primarily for guidance because there are many trades that cannot be alerted because of the frequency (however, we are coding a digital platform for our clients to view these HFT machine executions live). So in short, until such a platform is developed and deployed the clients can use the guidance to get their trade entry and resistance / supports but not follow the frequency and exact trades. The guidance on the alert feed has been getting better as the month went on (January) and will get more specific as we move forward in time, but it will never be precise (the Twitter platform isn’t built for HFT alerting, the live trading room does work much better however). SO in short, our clients need to use HFT alerts as a guide for their own strategy. The lead trader alerts are easier for the Twitter feed alert subscriber to follow than the machine trades.

Also important to note below, the executions compiled below I have derived directly from the trade account (Jen), so there will be times that the actual execution will be a few ticks different than the alerted price on various media sources of our platform (Twitter, live trading room coverage, oil chat room server, etc). And finally, you will find in some instance data missing from the alert feed simply because the lead trader is busy, but any missing data can be verified on live video log and/or in discord chat record.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

49.41 L trim 49.76 30% = 1050.00

49.41 L trim 49.73 30% = 990.00

49.41 L trim 49.71 30% = 900.00

49.41 L stopped 49.42 10 % = 10.00

Profit / Loss = 2,950.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

49.41 long high frequency program – machine crude oil trade alert for a high frequency program.

crude, oil, trade, alert, machine

49.41 long high frequency program – machine crude oil trade alert for a high frequency program.

M – Machine program will trim 49.79 to 49.86 stops for close 49.42.

oil, trade, alert, machine trading

M – Machine program will trim 49.79 to 49.86 stops for close 49.42. Oil trade alert.

Oil Trade Alert #2. Lead Trader Alerted Long Trade. Manually Executed Trades.

Lead trader was looking for a break of resistance and a squeeze in intra-day trade as described in alert.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

49.40 L trim 49.59 50% = 950.00

49.40 L trim 49.73 40% = 1320.00

49.40 L stop 49.49 10% = 90.00

Profit / Loss = 2,360.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

Long 49.40 for break and squeeze RR high — CURT, lead trader crude oil trade alert.

lead trader, crude, oil, trading, alert, long

Long 49.40 for break and squeeze RR high — CURT, lead trader crude oil trade alert.

Trim 49.59 50% – CURT, lead trader oil trading alert to trim trade.

trim, oil, trade, alert

trim 49.59 50% – CURT, lead trader oil trading alert to trim trade

The remaining executions were alerted in the Discord chat room and live traded in trading room and recorded and available on YouTube for members.

Oil Trade Alert #3. Lead Trader Alerted Short Trade with Possible Reversal. 

This short side trade alert came with an advisory that if it failed and reversed the lead trader would reverse at a certain price.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

51.21 Short to 51.27 at reversal = – 600.00

51.27 Long to 51.60 = 3300.00

Profit / Loss = 2,700.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

Short, crude, oil , trade, alert

Selling 51.21 if it reverses I’m long to 51.64 at 51.27 ish

oil, trade, alert, win, reversal

Trade did in fact reverse and lead trader alerted the closing trade for a win. out of reversal long 51.60

Oil Trade Alert #4. Lead Trader Long Trade With Price Targets. 

Trade # 4 on the month was a long alert with specific price targets at 51.87 then 52.07 from an entry at 51.67.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

51.67 Long to 51.87 = 1000.00

51.67 Long to 52.06 = 1950.00

Profit / Loss = 2,950.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

lead trade, price target, oil, trade, alert

Long 51.67 to 51.87 price target then 52.07 price target – crude oil trading alert by lead trader.

trim, trade, alert, oil

trim 51.87 50%, alert screen shot to trim the long oil trade

closed, trade, alert, oil, crude

Closed 52.06, successful long trade closed, screen shot capture of oil trading alert feed.

Oil Trade Alert #5. Short Crude Oil Day Trade Alert.

Trade # 5 was a simple 20 point day trade scalp.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

52.45 Short to 52.21 = 2400.00

Profit / Loss = 2,400.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

short, oil, trade, alert

selling 52.45 tight, short oil trade alert with tight stops

cover, short, trade, alert

Cover short trade 52.21.

Oil Trade Alert #6. Short Crude Oil Day Trade Alert with Caution.

Trade # 6 was a day trade two point entry alert with a caution to be careful.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size (five each entry)

51.98 Short to 51.87 = 550.00

52.05 Short to 51.87 = 900.00

Profit / Loss = 1,450.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

short, trade, oil, alert

Screen capture of lead trader oil alert – selling 51.98 & 52.05 tight careful – CURT

crude, oil, short, cover, alert

Trade alert to cover oil trade for a profit – covered 51.87 looking for another entry.

Oil Trade Alert #7. Long trade with poor action, closed small profit.

Trade # 7 was quick, trade action was poor.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

51.97 Long to 52.01 = 400.00

Profit / Loss = 400.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

oil, trade, alert

Oil trade alert – long 51.97 for tight test

oil, trade, alert, closed, win

out 52.01 taking a break see ya in futures.

Oil Trade Alert #8. Long machine driven trade alert with 50% trim and close.

Trade # 8 was a simple and clean machine traded oil alert.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

51.75 Long to 52.04 = 1450.00

51.75 Long to 51.94 = 950.00

Profit / Loss = 2400.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

Machine, trade, alert, crude, oil, long

M – Long 51.75 high frequency program tight stops will advise.

trim, oil, trade, alert

M – trims 50% 52.04

closed, trade, alert, oil

M – closed 51.94. Machine trade alert screen shot of winning trade.

Oil Trade Alert #9, 10 and 11 on one screen capture from feed – small quick trades.

Trades on the month # 9, 10, and 11 were quick scalps intra-day while the lead trader was trying to get a direction of trade going on the day so we have included them in one screen capture below from the live Twitter oil alert feed.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

52.14 Long to 52.25 =

Profit / Loss = 1100.00

51.85 Long to 51.94 =

Profit / Loss = 900.00

52.91 Long to 52.92 =

Profit / Loss = 100.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

oil, trade, alerts

Screen capture of oil trading alert feed of 3 quick trades by lead trader.

Oil Trade Alert #12 was a long side trade by the lead trader.

The open long on the trade, the trim, and the closing for a winning trade is on one screen shot below.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

51.25 Long to 51.43 = 850.00

51.25 Long to 51.65 = 2000.00

Profit / Loss = 2850.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

oil, trade, alert, entry, trim, close

This oil trade alert, trim and closing for a win is shown on one screen capture.

Oil Trade Alert #13 Short Trade in Overnight Trading.

Alert # 13 on the month was an overnight futures session trade by our lead trader to the short side. It took some time but it paid off.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

51.07 Short to 50.74 = 3300.00

Profit / Loss = 3300.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

Short, trade, alert, crude, oil, futures, overnight

Selling 51.07 will advise – CURT Overnight crude oil futures alert.

covered, short, oil, trade,

Covered 50.74 for a winning oil trade alert.

Oil Trade Alert #14, 15, 16. Scalp Trades.

Alert # 14, 15, 16 on the month are three trade alerts on one screen image because they were small scalp trades as lad trade was trying to find direction in oil trade intra-day.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

51.15 Short to 51.13 = 200.00

51.18 Short to 51.11 = 700.00

51.90 Long to 51.93 = 300.00

Profit / Loss = 1200.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

oil, trade, alerts, scalps

The next three trade alerts are on one screen image because the were small scalp trades to find direction in oil trade.

Oil Trade Alert #17 and 18. Lead Trader and Machine Trading Software Reversal Trade Win.

Alert # 17 and 18 are a flurry of oil trade alerts that include a reversal for a win with lead trader and the machine trading software alerting executions also.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

51.20 Short to 51.03 = 519.00

51.20 Short to 51.30 = – 700.00

51.30 Long to 51.53 = 690.00

51.30 Long to 51.63 = 990.00

51.30 Long to 51.66 = 1800.00

Profit / Loss = 3299.00

Machine Software Trades Executed.

51.36 Long to 51.53 = 510.00

51.36 Long to 51.56 = 600.00

51.36 Long to 51.47 = 440.00

Profit / Loss = 1550.00

Live Twitter Oil Trade Alert Feed Screen Captures.

oil, trade, alerts, win, lead trader, machine, software

The next flury of oil trade alerts includes a reversal for a win with lead trader and machine trading software.

lead trader, machine aoftware, crude, oil, trading, alerts

This screen image of the live alert feed shows the lead trader and software executing trades for members.

screen, shot, capture, oil, trade, alerts

Screen shot captured of closing the winning side oil trade alerts.

Oil Trade Alert #19. Lead Trader Pre-market in to Regular Market Open.

Alert # 19 is a series of trade alerts for crude oil in pre-market in to regular market open.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 52.67 to 52.93 = 1300.00

Long 52.67 to 53.08 = 1200.00

Long 52.67 to 53.03 = 1080.00

Profit / Loss = 3580.00

premarket, crude, oil, trade, alerts

Series of trade alerts for crude oil in premarket in to regular market open.

Oil Trade Alert #20, 21, 22. Daytrading Crude Oil Alerts.

Alerts # 20, 21, 22 is a screen shot of live trade alert feed lead trader trading crude oil day trading snipes to get trend for day.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 54.02 to 54.07 = 500.00

Long 53.76 to 53.85 = 900.00

Long 53.77 to 53.87 = 1000.00

Profit / Loss = 2400.00

daytrading, crude, oil, alerts

This is a screen shot of live trade alert feed lead trader trading crude oil daytrading snipes to get trend for day.

Oil Trade Alert #23 and 24. A Small Loss and a Day-trade Win.

Alerts # 23 and 24 The first loss on trade alerts is shown here and a small winning oil trade alert.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 53.85 to 54.00 = 1500.00

Sold 53.91 to 53.93 = – 200.00

Profit / Loss = 1300.00

Oil, trade, alerts, a loss, a win

The first loss on trade alerts is shown here and a small winning oil trade alert.

Oil Trade Alert #25 and 26. Another Small Gain (flat) and a Day-trade Win.

Alerts # 25 and 26 Next on oil trade alert feed a small gain (basically flat) and a short trade winning day trade.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 54.20 to 54.21 = 100.00

Sold 52.75 to 52.66 = 270.00

Sold 52.75 to 52.60 = 600.00

Sold 52.75 to 52.59 = 480.00

Profit / Loss = 1450.00

daytrade, crude, oil, alert

Next on oil trade alert feed a small flat and a short trade winning daytrade.

Oil Trade Alert #27. Clean Win on this Day Trade Oil Alert.

Alert # 27 on the oil trading alert feed a lead trader clean win on a long trade.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 52.05 to 52.24 = 950.00

Long 52.05 to 52.27 = 670.00

Long 52.05 to 52.29 = 690.00

Profit / Loss = 2410.00

oil, trade, alert, long, win

Next on the oil trading alert feed a lead trader clean win on a long trade.

Oil Trade Alert #28. Clean Day Trade Win on this Alert.

# 28 trade alert is a long side upside break on 1 minute oil model our traders use.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 53.06 to 53.31 = 2500.00

Profit / Loss = 2500.00

Daytrade, oil, crude, alert

Next trade alert is a long side upside break on 1 minute oil model our traders use.

Oil Trade Alert #29. Sniping Long Day Trade.

# 29 is a small daytrade snipe long by our lead trader on crude oil trading alert feed.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 53.13 to 53.22 = 900.00

Profit / Loss = 900.00

sniping, crude, oil, alert

Small daytrade snipe long by our lead trader on crude oil trading alert feed.

Oil Trade Alerts #30 and 31. Flat trades with a special report coming for the one.

# 30 and 31 – Next two alerts on the oil feed are flats and the one became high frequency (manually traded high frequency) that a special report is due out on. When the report comes out (it is an intensive video of many trades) I will link that report to this here.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Profit / Loss = 0

two, oil, trades

Next two alerts on the oil feed are flats and the one became high frequency that a special report is due out on.

Oil Trade Alerts #32, 33, 34. 

# 32, 33, 34 –  Next 3 oil trades are post EIA and one is good the others are tight tests on the alert feed.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 52.96 to 52.70 = 2600.00

Long 52.71 to 52.68 = 300.00

Long 52.77 to 52.77 = 00.00

Profit / Loss = 2900.00

oil, trade, alerts

Next 3 oil trades are post EIA and one is good the others are tight tests on the alert feed.

Oil Trade Alerts #35. Small loss on a day trade.

# 35 –  This oil trade alert is for a small loss intra day.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 53.32 to 53.24 = – 800.00

Profit / Loss = – 800.00

Oil, trade, alert, loss

This oil trade alert is for a small loss intra day.

Oil Trade Alerts #36, 37. One loss one win.

# 36 and #37 –  More day trading crude oil alerts with one loss and one winning trade.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 52.12 to 52.00 = – 1200.00

Long 52.47 to 52.62 = 1500.00

Profit / Loss = 300.00

One win one lose, daytrades, oil, alerts

More day trading crude oil alerts with one loss and one winning trade.

Oil Trade Alert #38. Two daytrade wins.

# 38 Next are two long daytrade oil alerts both winning trades for snipe trades.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 52.72 to 52.84 = 600.00

Long 52.72 to 52.88 = 900.00

Long 52.88 to 53 = 1200.00

Profit / Loss = 2700.00

long, oil, trade, alerts

Next are two long daytrade oil alerts both winning trades for snipe trades.

Oil Trade Alert #39. Nice win.

# 39 This was an excellent crude oil day trade alert for a nice win. Screen shot.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 53.32 to 53.41 = 270.00

Long 53.32 to 53.50 = 1260.00

Profit / Loss = 1530.00

day trade, crude, oil, trade, alert, win

This was an excellent crude oil day trade alert for a nice win. Screen shot.

Oil Trade Alert #40. Clean Day Trade on the Model.

# 40 Another winning oil trade alert. Nice simple gains on intra day trading of the model.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 53.59 to 53.75 = 800.00

Long 53.59 to 53.91 = 1600.00

Profit / Loss = 2400.00

trade, alert, oil, daytrade

Another winning oil trade alert. Nice simple gains on intra day trading of the model.

Oil Trade Alert #41. Small win.

# 41 Next trade on alert feed is a small snipe intra day.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 54.24 to 54.29 = 500.00

Profit / Loss = 500.00

oil, trade, alert, intra day

Next trade on alert feed is a small snipe intra day. Crude oil trading alerts.

Oil Trade Alert #42, 43, 44. $XOM Earnings Win, DWT Short Swing Trade Win, Daytrade Win.

# 42, 43, 44 – The next 3 alerts are $XOM long in to earnings that went exceptionally well, DWT close short swing (nearly doubled), long day trade crude oil.

Profit / Loss Summary:

10 Contract Size

Lead Trader Trades Executed.

Long 55.00 to 55.23 = 1150.00

Long 55.00 to 55.22 = 1100.00

Profit / Loss = 2250.00

Short DWT 13.55 to 8.73 @ 1000 = 4820.00

Profit / Loss = 4820.00

Short DWT 13.55 to 8.73 closed, nice trade and it followed the plan for the price target. #swingtrading #crudeoil #OOTT $CL_F $USO $WTI $UWT $DWT

$XOM long 72.60 Thurs in to earnings, Fri HOD 76.49, Closed Session Fri 75.92. #swingtrading #earnings #OOTT #Oil #Gas #TradeAlerts

XOM, earnings, DWT, short, swing trade, daytrade, crude, oil, alerts

The next 3 alerts are $XOM long in to earnings, DWT close short swing, long day trade crude oil.

Remember, for each of these trade there is a process. This process can be learned, reproduced and executed at will. We have a video library on YouTube, private oil chat room on Discord, live trading room, live alert feeds and numerous reports that come out regularly.

There is no fluke in this winning process. It is very systematic and predictable. All you have to do is put the time in to it to study it and practice it and reap the reward. We have done the heavy lifting in advance for you.

Conclusion.

One Month Statistics:

Trade Account Increase = +63.05%

Trade Account Profit = $63,049.00

Wins = 41

Losses = 3

Win rate = 93%

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Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Crude, Oil, Trade, Trading, Alerts, Profit, Loss, Futures, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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Crude Oil Day Trade Strategies (Live Video from Oil Trading Room with Alerts) for EIA, Market Open, Model Resistance, Time Cycles.

This video does not have any high flying trades, what it does have is important lessons for day trading crude oil and understanding how to use the oil trading models to your advantage. It also discusses in detail the time cycles and what to expect in trade action.

#oil #trading #strategies

Voice broadcast starts at 13:30 on oil trading room video.

January 30, 2019 Oil Trading Room Live Session Summary Notes.

13:30 premarket for regular market open comments about important resistance on EPIC Algorithm model and where trade should settle intra-day (at top of quad or mid quad) in advance of EIA petroleum report at 10:30.

14:30 comment to not buying the “pop” in price as I expected crude oil trade to calm in advance of EIA report timing. The resistance hidden pivot (yellow horizontal line on chart) is discussed.

15:00 Comments toward time cycle inflection on global markets (including crude oil) over next 3 or 4 days is discussed. We could inflect up or down on other side of time cycle peak. 55s is very possible (even a blow off in to 56 is possible) as an inflection up over next few days and a double extension up could happen. Time cycle in to mid May 2019 is the main pocket of trade sizing timing. See special report guidance in to May 2019 for crude oil.

Time cycle from end of Dec to now was difficult to trade with swing trade sizing but the next time cycle I can’t miss (the one starting in next few days in to mid May).

18:40 looking for whether price trade can get above pivot and structure a base for a trade on the model.

At 37:37 I comment to stagnant trade not being a surprise in to EIA and that I was looking for a slight short 20 to 30 points in to EIA. Trading 54.00 intra-day.

By 1:13:37 on oil trading room video you can see price did come off as expected.

At 1:17:30 EIA is in just under a minute. The model support and resistance is explained.

1:18:40 the one minute model has resistance in trade just over-head (chart not shown).

1:19:20 I announce the EIA petroleum report results and comment that generally trade should be bullish. At 1:20:00 price hits near top of quad.

For a number of weeks we’ve been targeting 55s Jan 31 to Feb 3 so this could be what finishes the trajectory on that time cycle peak.

Screen capture of oil trading room… “could be final move in to 55s if open is strong.”

oil, trading, room, alert, chart

Screen capture of oil trading room… could be final move in to 55s if open is strong

1:21:40 I am long at 54.24 for a trade above 1 minute support and EPIC model support. Test size trade long crude oil.

EPIC Crude Oil Trade Alert feed screen capture showing trade alerts for trade on the day. You can see that earlier in the day in overnight futures trade that I was actively trading for decent profit.

crude, oil, trade, alerts

EPIC Crude Oil Trade Alert feed screen capture showing trade alerts for trade on the day.

Resistance 54.32 is noted as key resistance for the trade and the top of the quad and a comment to not getting to excited because of the various resistance points nearby.

1:23:27 we get a touch to the resistance. The test of resistance is commented to. 54.59 upside price target discussed if resistance is breached. Price did in fact hit that on the day later.

Resistance at mid point of trading box on the 1 minute model is discussed. At 1:26:00 on video I close the trade for a small gain at 54.29. Wasn’t interested in dealing with the resistance.

Remember at this point I am still holding DWT short from a number of days ago. The entry short was 13.57 and it hit 8s intra-day. Hoping for 7s before closing.

1:28:15 I show on the model the upside scenario and channel resistance being likely.

1:28:40 I discuss the recent sell off in crude oil in to 41s and our call to 55s in to this time cycle peak is discussed and why this area of trade is low risk reward. Also discussed is the type of trade action to expect in to the peak of the cycle in to Jan 31 – Feb 3.

Later in day I reiterate the time cycle peak in crude oil with price target guidance and visual representation of the time cycle and price target on oil chart model for our member strategy.

Time cycle conclusion near term on oil is 55.40 price target from previous reports last number of weeks (could spike in to 56.00) expiring on about Jan 31 – Feb 3. HOD was 54.90. We expect at min a small pull back. FX USOIL WTI
Likely close short DWT (long oil) soon for short term only.
Curt Melonopoly Yesterday at 11:37 PM
Visual representation of the crude oil time cycle

Screen capture from oil trading chat room discussing trading strategies for time cycle peak and price target.

oil, trading, room, price target, time cycle, strategy

Later I reiterate time cycle crude oil price target and visual representation of time cycle and price target.

THE TAKEAWAYS – Main Oil Trading Strategies Learned on Video:

Just because oil was bullish in to the market open and normally that would mean a buy trigger – it doesn’t always mean buy.

– In this instance it was Wednesday and the timing of EIA coming in one hour after open had me hold off my long trade because trade normally softens in advance of EIA. Bulls and bears stand-off. Also, there was a key pivot resistance on the oil chart model in play. For these reasons and more the trade set-up was not ideal for risk reward. It wasn’t a high probability long trade.

Know your resistance and support when trading and get out quick when resistance becomes real like with my EIA trade on this video.

It is highly recommended you review recent reporting, discord room chat (regular guidance is posted in the oil chat room private server) and the various videos that are released on a regular basis.

Recent Learning Posts and Videos (most are premium member locked posts).

Jan 29 – Trading the Main Support and Resistance on EPIC Algorithm Model. How to Post.

100 Tick Move | Crude Oil Day Trading Strategies | Trade Model Support and Resistance.

Jan 27 – Premium Member Private Post (Weekly Reporting & Guidance).

Oil Trade Strategies | Day Trading Crude Oil | Premium Member Weekly Guidance.

Jan 22 – Compounding Gains Day trading Crude Oil.

Not Just Concept: Day Trading Crude Oil 10K – 1 Million in 24 Mos at 10 Ticks Day (Compound Gains).

Jan 20 – Weekly Crude Oil Trading Strategy Guidance Private Post for Premium Members.

Oil Trade Strategy | Day Trading Crude Oil Futures | Premium Weekly Guidance.

Jan 19 – A detailed inside look at our day traders’ strategies in crude oil day trading room.

How I Day Trade Crude Oil +90% Win Rate | Friday’s 158 Tick Move | The Strategy We Used To Trade It.

Jan 18 – By far one of the most important videos for day trading crude oil since our inception;

How I Day Trade Crude Oil on One Minute Chart | Trading Signals | Alerts (with video).

Jan 14 – Oil day traders need to see this article;

Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy | Oil Trading Room Video | Lead Trader Guidance.

If you have any questions send me a note please!

Best and peace!

Curt

PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Futures, Oil Trading Room, Strategy, Price Targets, Time Cycles, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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Our Live Documented Journey to Compound Day Trading Crude Oil Futures for Gains That 99% Would Only Dream Possible…

And one of the best parts of our mad journey; we’re now beyond Concept and Theory…

and we’re proving it LIVE (well on our way to… Fact).

We are now Trading Crude Oil to Over 1% Per Day Returns, Live.

We have many other trades that are not live also because we are testing many models).

It’s been a bit of a petri dish. So far.

But as of late we’ve stopped the petri. It was unavoidable (the petri part).

Side thought – In all fairness, only we know what the petri part is (well not completely true because members do know the rules for the most part). The important point being… we’re done petri.

We are now trading crude oil in our process with consistency and ease, real-time live and we’re recording it, we are alerting the crude oil trades on a private Twitter member feed and sharing our work process (including all rules sets, thoughts, charts and more) in chat, and we’re even trading crude oil live in our oil trading room with screen share of our charts and voice broadcast from myself alerting the trades.

0.

The probabilities that our rule-set fails now after hundreds of trades, especially now that we are in minimal discovery and quickly moving to refinement and consolidation phases is… well, near 0.

Maybe.

Oh, and even more reason … our software runs trades near 24 hours a day now (non-alerted at this point), and nearly never loses. When it does, it’s for pennies. Soon we’ll unleash him/her (it) live.

Maybe.

For all intents and purpose, we don’t lose when manually executing trades either. Sure, we do lose sometimes, but very small if we do – very small. And even our manual executions are getting better all the time. And we (I) suck as traders.

Here’s an even better part; 3%, not 1% sees 10,000.00 to 2 Million Dollars in 180 days. And we’re going to do it.

Nobody knows the future! I know, I know.

1 – 3 Hours a Day.

A cool part… we do 1% or more with 1 – 3 hours a day of trade focus. Usually closer to an hour or so. We’re kind of busy with something I never thought I’d be doing…. code, machine learning, science, quantum thingys and other mind places.

Anybody Does Do It.

And better yet; anybody can do it. Why? Because we’re refining the process to its most simplest form. Quantum mind things to simple.

But there’s too many lines! I know, I know.

We have non traders (on staff) starting to use the rule-set and even starting to alert their trades. And the coolest part, they may be better at executing the trading rule-set than the experienced oil traders (initial indications are this could be very plausible).

We Like Tents… Almost as Much as We Love Beaches.

And the near best part (in my little world)… the money ain’t the motivator – I’d be equally happy living in a tent on a beach. Oh wait, I almost do. The shiny floors at the Hard Rock in Punta Cana were never my thing anyway.

And the best part; freedom is near (unless the world ends or something). Not only is freedom near for our staff (that have worked tirelessly day and night) but for our clients and members and their families and their families. Get the drift? This is why I’m so excited.

The Dream Realized. Next!

And we’re near done the first of many (instrument trading processes) we are developing. We’re in the final phases with our oil trading platform, soon it will simply be maintenance updates to the manual trading and machine trading parts of our oil trading services.

Yes, the other algorithm models and swing trading are next.

The Point? 

Sharing our journey. I did promise when we started all this. That I would share.

Selling you on it. So you can join the movement to freedom. So you can help. So maybe you can be a part of it. Maybe you’ll take the next steps? Maybe anything is possible.

Maybe you will be our next donor when our software development needs a few million for the app.

Or maybe we’ll just boot strap that too.

Maybe I’ll inspire you. That would be novel.

Promises.

I also promised our sharing will end soon. It will be this year.

We’ll still be around to chat.

We’ll still have our enterprise.

We just won’t share.

It’s tiring. I just made a promise to share, to a point:)

How is it Done? … the trading up 1% gains or better in crude oil a day.

Members stay tuned for Part 2 of this post. Until then study the most recent report here:

Protected: Oil Trade Strategy | Day Trading Crude Oil Futures | Premium Weekly Guidance.

Non members can visit our unlocked posts here:

Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil.

Non members could also get off their ass and subscribe and learn live. Just sayin.

How Does 10,000.00 turn in to over 1 Million at a Compound Rate in Less than Two Years?

When we first started this crazy venture I posted the post, it has a link to the calculator,

Come to think of it, I wrote it around the time that everyone told me I was nuts.

Fuel.

How $10,000 Turns in to 1 Million in 24 Mths @ 1% Per Day Compound Stock Trading.

Is There a Process in the Madness?

We have tried to explain it in the few moments of rest between days of no sleep and falling asleep in very strange places randomly the last two years.

The Development Process.

We Weren’t Smart Enough to Think This Up.

We suspect we’re using similar ideas…

The mathematician who cracked Wall Street.

There’s my share of the month.

Now go spin it up.

And give EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm a follow.

day trading, crude, oil compound, gains

Day Trading Crude Oil 10K – 1 Million in 24 Mos at 10 Ticks Day (Compound Gains)

Best and peace.

Curt

PS

Members stay tuned for Part 2 of this post.

Follow the Madness:


In an effort to provide trading guidance to our members on a regular basis and in the spirit of operating a transparent trading service, my letter to members below should provide clarity on our goals for 2019 and how we see the markets shaping up for trade.

2017 and 2018 Market Guidance Review.

Prior to the election we signaled bullish on equities and had a fantastic six months post election with huge returns. Then consistently our returns have softened and the last quarter returns have been less than 40% (if calculated on an annual basis) – specific to no algorithm trades. So we went from 400% to 40% since the election (again, if you calculated various time frames based on annual basis).

Late June of 2018 we started signalling a slow down in equities and our alerts and swing trading publications slowed, the market did in fact turn down. However, the end of that time cycle is here now.

Our time cycle work with instrument structure has been by far our highest probability guidance.

2019 Market Guidance Overview.

The list below coincides with our algorithm models and swing trading.

At this point, the time cycle inflection looks as follows;

SPY / equity markets bullish in to early May 2019 (some sectors will do better than others – hence our theme based approach to swing trade reporting and alerts in to 2019) with possibility for more frequent volatility spikes.

Oil bullish in to early May 2019.

VIX bearish in to early May 2019 however (as above) we see probability of VIX spikes very high.

Gold and Silver to hold moderate with likely pressured trade to bearish side.

Bitcoin as with Gold and Silver.

US Dollar DXY to come under bearish pressure.

If the above plays out as we expect then come mid May 2019 there is a high likelihood that the opposite for everything listed above (with possibly the exception being DXY) will be in play.

HOWEVER, IT IS CRITICAL to be aware that the guidance above can flip with the markets. Geopolitical risk is rampant right now. Our reporting depth will be significant for this reason. The instrument structure will be the focus and time frame of trade key to each structure. Stay flexible to the market inflections and trade the instrument structure (support and resistance therein) to your chosen time frame.

Reporting and Trade Alerts in the Next Time Cycle. 

The algorithm and swing trading reports will all be updated and distributed between Tuesday Jan 8 – 15 2019 to allow for two days of market action (this Monday and Tuesday) in to this new time cycle (post holiday).

There will be follow up reporting to approximately Jan 23rd that will focus on instrument structure (trading ranges on different time frames) for the algorithm models and swing trade equities we follow and then intensive thereafter through six month time cycle.

The deep dive we will be doing is for our trading on different time frames (swing trade and day trading) – you will find our trading to be significantly more active than the previous six months. This will include the machine trading in oil.

I should point out here also that the swing trade reporting and trades will be selective / theme based as we see a stock pickers six months next.

2018 / 2019 Work in Progress List.

We do have some team WIP left over from 2018 that will be cleaned up in January (it is nominal clerical type stuff for the most part). Some of the list is below:

  • Rules based machine trading protocol for oil to be published soon. This has been difficult to publish because our learning curve has been parabolic (the more you know about how an instrument trades the more you know that you didn’t know prior).
    • Our learning curve is starting to level out now so this will be released soon.
  • Machine trading signals to be fed in to main trading room (initially manually then auto when API integration complete).
    • For now I will be verbally feeding these in to the live trading room, however, Jeremy is working on the API soon for automation.
  • New pricing to be published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
    • Early in 2019 there will be a price increase on all services (when everything is updated).
  • Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
    • This will occur with the deep dive we are doing over next month in reporting initiative.
  • Trading Profit Loss to be Published for Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
  • Previously recorded Trading Boot Camp Event videos to become available on Compound Trading website.
  • Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
  • New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
  • 1 day Boot Camps for each of the seven trading models and swing / daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
    • We wanted to do this late 2018 but time didn’t allow, we’re targeting Feb 2019.
  • 3 day Cabarete trading boot camp to be announced for Feb / Mar ish 2019.
  • Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).
  • Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).

2019 Platform Normalization (copied from last member update)

In year one our goal was to simply get lift to our basic trading service platform and that was accomplished.

In year two (2018) our goal was to develop the software for machine trading to the oil model and bring forward various other development and that has been accomplished (it has been much more work than we expected and we are just there).

In year three (2019) our focus will be to normalizing our trading services platform in the first 6 months. Our focus also will be toward trading for profit and building our learning centers for our trading community. In the latter 6 months we will turn our focus back to software development with coding BTC and SPY at minimum. The difference will be that we expect to have staff in each area of the platform so that areas of service are not interrupted (stretched) with a start up staff size.

In summary, this means that we are cleaning up our work in progress from 2018 and going in to 2019 our service will be hyper focused on trading, reporting, trade alerts and the development of learning systems for our membership base.

The time cycle starting in to the new year is significant in size in global markets and we intend to capitalize on the opportunity this brings.

Remaining Discount Codes Expire Tuesday Midnight.

Disclaimer / Disclosure, Terms of Use.

Subscribers: read disclaimer.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Some Discount Codes Remain from our December Special 40% Discount Member Only Offer.

In December we offered our clients a one time discount on services, some discount codes remain.

This is now available to our mailing list at large for 24 hours only.

We then will offer the remaining discount codes to the general public to complete the annual discount offering.

Details are below from our previous member offer posting:

It’s that time of year and we’re ringing in the new year with exclusive discounts for our members.

The 40% discount is available on any service listed on the shop page below,

The coupon codes are limited to 10 per item only – when they are used up they become unavailable:

Use promo code: jen40

Pricing / Features / Promos – Pricing Tables (click).

This special Christmas discount is available for Trade Alerts, Algorithm and Swing Reporting, Trade Coaching, and Live Trading Room.

Some conditions apply;

  • The pricing code discount cannot be used in conjunction with any other discount offer code.
  • For existing members that have paid can use this offer to run after existing membership period completes.
  • The 40% off discount is applicable to published pricing per the pricing table link above, the discount does not apply to legacy members that may have special rates.
  • There are 10 coupon codes issued for each item on the pricing table per link above.
  • The sale ends Dec 31, 2018 whether all the coupon codes are used up or not.
  • The discount rate cannot be renewed, so if you want to take advantage of the discount for a longer duration then select a 3, 6 or 12 month option at check out vs one month.
  • Other terms and conditions may apply.

If you have any problems at check out with the coupon code or if you have any questions email Jean at compoundtradingofficial.com

Enjoy your Christmas and lets trade!

Jen, Compound Trading Group


December Special 40% Discounts. Member Only Offer:

It’s that time of year and we’re ringing in the new year with exclusive discounts for our members.

The 40% discount is available on any service listed on the shop page below, the coupon codes are limited to 10 per item only – when they are used up they become unavailable:

Use promo code: jen40

Pricing / Features / Promos – Pricing Tables (click).

This special Christmas discount is available for Trade Alerts, Algorithm and Swing Reporting, Trade Coaching, and Live Trading Room.

Some conditions apply;

  • The pricing code discount cannot be used in conjunction with any other discount offer code.
  • For existing members that have paid can use this offer to run after existing membership period completes.
  • The 40% off discount is applicable to published pricing per the pricing table link above, the discount does not apply to legacy members that may have special rates.
  • There are 10 coupon codes issued for each item on the pricing table per link above.
  • The sale ends Dec 31, 2018 whether all the coupon codes are used up or not.
  • The discount rate cannot be renewed, so if you want to take advantage of the discount for a longer duration then select a 3, 6 or 12 month option at check out vs one month.
  • Other terms and conditions may apply.

If you have any problems at check out with the coupon code or if you have any questions email Jean at compoundtradingofficial.com

Enjoy your Christmas and lets trade!

Jen, Compound Trading Group