Crude Oil Day Trade Strategies (Live Video from Oil Trading Room with Alerts) for EIA, Market Open, Model Resistance, Time Cycles.
This video does not have any high flying trades, what it does have is important lessons for day trading crude oil and understanding how to use the oil trading models to your advantage. It also discusses in detail the time cycles and what to expect in trade action.
#oil #trading #strategies
Voice broadcast starts at 13:30 on oil trading room video.
January 30, 2019 Oil Trading Room Live Session Summary Notes.
13:30 premarket for regular market open comments about important resistance on EPIC Algorithm model and where trade should settle intra-day (at top of quad or mid quad) in advance of EIA petroleum report at 10:30.
14:30 comment to not buying the “pop” in price as I expected crude oil trade to calm in advance of EIA report timing. The resistance hidden pivot (yellow horizontal line on chart) is discussed.
15:00 Comments toward time cycle inflection on global markets (including crude oil) over next 3 or 4 days is discussed. We could inflect up or down on other side of time cycle peak. 55s is very possible (even a blow off in to 56 is possible) as an inflection up over next few days and a double extension up could happen. Time cycle in to mid May 2019 is the main pocket of trade sizing timing. See special report guidance in to May 2019 for crude oil.
Time cycle from end of Dec to now was difficult to trade with swing trade sizing but the next time cycle I can’t miss (the one starting in next few days in to mid May).
18:40 looking for whether price trade can get above pivot and structure a base for a trade on the model.
At 37:37 I comment to stagnant trade not being a surprise in to EIA and that I was looking for a slight short 20 to 30 points in to EIA. Trading 54.00 intra-day.
By 1:13:37 on oil trading room video you can see price did come off as expected.
At 1:17:30 EIA is in just under a minute. The model support and resistance is explained.
1:18:40 the one minute model has resistance in trade just over-head (chart not shown).
1:19:20 I announce the EIA petroleum report results and comment that generally trade should be bullish. At 1:20:00 price hits near top of quad.
For a number of weeks we’ve been targeting 55s Jan 31 to Feb 3 so this could be what finishes the trajectory on that time cycle peak.
Screen capture of oil trading room… “could be final move in to 55s if open is strong.”
Screen capture of oil trading room… could be final move in to 55s if open is strong
1:21:40 I am long at 54.24 for a trade above 1 minute support and EPIC model support. Test size trade long crude oil.
EPIC Crude Oil Trade Alert feed screen capture showing trade alerts for trade on the day. You can see that earlier in the day in overnight futures trade that I was actively trading for decent profit.
EPIC Crude Oil Trade Alert feed screen capture showing trade alerts for trade on the day.
Resistance 54.32 is noted as key resistance for the trade and the top of the quad and a comment to not getting to excited because of the various resistance points nearby.
1:23:27 we get a touch to the resistance. The test of resistance is commented to. 54.59 upside price target discussed if resistance is breached. Price did in fact hit that on the day later.
Resistance at mid point of trading box on the 1 minute model is discussed. At 1:26:00 on video I close the trade for a small gain at 54.29. Wasn’t interested in dealing with the resistance.
Remember at this point I am still holding DWT short from a number of days ago. The entry short was 13.57 and it hit 8s intra-day. Hoping for 7s before closing.
1:28:15 I show on the model the upside scenario and channel resistance being likely.
1:28:40 I discuss the recent sell off in crude oil in to 41s and our call to 55s in to this time cycle peak is discussed and why this area of trade is low risk reward. Also discussed is the type of trade action to expect in to the peak of the cycle in to Jan 31 – Feb 3.
Later in day I reiterate the time cycle peak in crude oil with price target guidance and visual representation of the time cycle and price target on oil chart model for our member strategy.
Time cycle conclusion near term on oil is 55.40 price target from previous reports last number of weeks (could spike in to 56.00) expiring on about Jan 31 – Feb 3. HOD was 54.90. We expect at min a small pull back. FX USOIL WTI Likely close short DWT (long oil) soon for short term only. Curt Melonopoly Yesterday at 11:37 PM Visual representation of the crude oil time cycle
Screen capture from oil trading chat room discussing trading strategies for time cycle peak and price target.
Later I reiterate time cycle crude oil price target and visual representation of time cycle and price target.
THE TAKEAWAYS – Main Oil Trading Strategies Learned on Video:
Just because oil was bullish in to the market open and normally that would mean a buy trigger – it doesn’t always mean buy.
– In this instance it was Wednesday and the timing of EIA coming in one hour after open had me hold off my long trade because trade normally softens in advance of EIA. Bulls and bears stand-off. Also, there was a key pivot resistance on the oil chart model in play. For these reasons and more the trade set-up was not ideal for risk reward. It wasn’t a high probability long trade.
– Know your resistance and support when trading and get out quick when resistance becomes real like with my EIA trade on this video.
It is highly recommended you review recent reporting, discord room chat (regular guidance is posted in the oil chat room private server) and the various videos that are released on a regular basis.
Recent Learning Posts and Videos (most are premium member locked posts).
Jan 29 – Trading the Main Support and Resistance on EPIC Algorithm Model. How to Post.
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Day Trading Crude Oil Strategy – Trading the Model Support and Resistance.
Monday we seen a one hundred point move in crude oil (a snap-back reversal intra-day) after a sell-off that started in futures Sunday night.
Below is a detailed description of how to trade the signals for this re-occurring pattern in crude oil intra-day trade.
Voice broadcast starts at 1:40 on video.
The Oil Day Trade Set-Up
Oil was selling off through the day. Intra day price is very near a lower price target and has bounced.
We didn’t catch the sell-off because our team took a 5 hour break in futures.
The trading box example is reviewed at 3:00. Trade action on the 1 minute model (trading box). Trading patterns are reviewed.
Price targets on the EPIC Algorithm Model are reviewed at 4:35 on video. This is an important part of the video to watch. The upper and lower price targets on the model are reviewed. Twelve hours later as I write both targets (up and down price targets) have been in fact hit. The range of the trading quads are reviewed.
Price targets on the EPIC Algorithm Model are reviewed at 4:35 on video. This is an important part of the video to watch.
The price targets in the quad area of the crude oil trading model are shown below. The price target to lower support is shown (trade hit near the price target early) and then bounced to upper price target and resistance on the model.
Crude oil trading strategy on model shows sell-off in to price target and reversal in to price target and other price targets.
At 6:20 on the video the 4 hour oil chart is reviewed. We were looking for a little lower on the day in this specific range, support was at 50.89 trading 51.57 on West Texas Oil. The timing at the time this video was recording looked short and it wasn’t likely it would hit (it didn’t). The symmetrical move to the upside and a sling shot move to the downside (opposite) is also reviewed as a scenario. In this down scenario that would bring price to down side of EPIC Algorithm quad trade is in (even lower to a point).
At 9:20 is the 4 hour oil test chart. Support 50.90 on West Texas or 51.10 on FX USOIL WTI.
At 10:20 on the video the weekly oil chart is reviewed. The weekly pivot at top and bottom of weekly candles previous are reviewed. Trade held the area intra-day and bounced.
At 19:00 on the video I review the one minute oil trading chart. A coil is in play which is usually a sign of an intra day turn. Price did in fact turn and run up to the top side quad resistance after this video ended through the rest of the afternoon.
Here, like the sell-off in overnight trade Sunday night, we didn’t catch the move because we were on break for the day. Two missed trades.
The four hour candle expiry is commented to also.
I explained that at the expiry of the 4 hour if it traded to upside that I would trade it, but I didn’t. Should have.
It is highly recommended you review recent reporting, discord room chat (regular guidance is posted in the oil chat room private server) and the various videos that are released on a regular basis.
Jan 27 – Premium Member Private Post (Weekly Reporting & Guidance).
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Day Trading Strategy for Crude Oil Futures Trade for Week of January 27, 2019.
Oil futures trade opens tonight at 6:00 Eastern, below is my battle plan for this week.
The regular EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Weekly Reporting below is an alternate format to the regular format – we will be using alternate formats during a period of establishing simplified trading strategies for our members (the trade rule-set).
My strategy this week for my oil trading is primarily based on the EPIC Oil Algorithm charting model.
The EPIC Crude Oil Trading Algorithm Model below is by far the most predictable model we use for trade (30 Minute chart model).
The model is now normalized as we are past the charting anomalies from the holiday period.
The model link will be emailed direct to members of the bundle and / or newsletter separate from this report.
Trading the Range of the Quadrants and Range of the Channels:
Respecting the key resistance and support areas of the oil trading model at quadrant walls (orange dotted), channel support and resistance (orange dotted), mid quad horizontal support and resistance (horizontal line that cuts through middle of quad) and the mid channel lines (light gray dotted).
We are finding that when oil trade is not in an uptrend or downtrend and is trading sideways around a pivot (as it has the last eight or so trading days) that trade will often test the mid channel lines (gray dotted) of the model. This causes the predictability of the quadrant support and resistance to be less (trade at quad support and resistance can be “sloppy”). This trade action in the model makes logical sense as a trend is not in play for an up or down channel. Another way to describe it would be trade uses half quadrant support and resistance. While trade is in a sideways pattern on the daily your intra-day crude oil trading strategy should reflect this scenario. See examples from trade last week below:
“the predictability of the quadrant support and resistance to be less #crude #oil #trading #strategies”
“when oil trade is not in an uptrend or downtrend and is trading sideways around a pivot (as it has the last eight or so trading days) that trade will often test #oil #trade”.
Trade Size –
Sizing should be considered at key support and resistance of the EPIC model structure. The model can be used to determine sizing bias on tighter time frames on one minute below. Sizing can also be a consideration for short term swing trading oil in the model.
Per previous;
Screen capture of trade moving through EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm range a few weeks ago (Jan 16 – 20).
Screen capture of trade moving through EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm range in trade last week. #crude #oil #trading
Timing of Trades is Based on the One Minute Oil Chart Model.
Volume.
Wait for volume. Low volume periods have lower predictability in the models.
Trend.
Determine the intra-day direction (trend) of trade. Strong bias should be considered for long or short positioning based on intra-day trend. Upward trend I will be bias to long positions and down trend intra-day I will be bias to short positions.
Determine the trend on the daily chart, some bias should be toward that. Watch the MACD on the daily, although it is a moderately late indicator it does confirm bias / trend.
Check important timing for key global market open hours (inflections in day trend can occur here, especially with New York).
Support and Resistance.
In an uptrend try and execute on support of the range on the one minute trading box (short term pull back) – the opposite is true in a downtrend.
Trade Sizing and Positioning
In a predictable structure sizing intra-day should be maximum at entry and trims at mid trading box and top or bottom of trading box – specific to the 1 minute chart model. On the EPIC algorithm model at key support and resistance I often test first and then add in size as the test proves itself and coincides with one minute chart.
Trim positions at mid trading box and top of trading box for long positions and the opposite is true in shorting. In a squeeze or sell-off this is more difficult. Typically I trade the break upside at resistance or downside at support breached.
Timing Entry.
The main trading box on the one minute is the support and resistance of the range (where the red and blue dotted and white dotted are), however, to pin point timing to the second you can use the pivot areas (top and bottom of range) and monitor the coil around the main support and resistance areas and use the smaller trading box around the pivots. Recent blog posts / videos discuss this and I will discuss further in near term video / blog posts.
Indicators on the one minute that I use are the Stochastic RSI, MACD and Squeeze Momentum Indicator. The nature of these indicators on a short time frame like the one minute can be deceiving for even the more advanced trader. Use them with caution.
Day Trading Crude Oil Futures One Minute Strategy Model Jan 27 504 PM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $WTI $USO #Crude #Oil #Daytrading
Day Trading Crude Oil Futures One Minute Strategy Model Jan 27 504 PM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $WTI $USO #Crude #Oil #Daytrading
Per previous;
The main trading box range is shown in chart below with purple arrows and the pivot at support and resistance trading box is shown with white arrows (for micro timing decisions).
Trade support and resistance shown on one minute chart model for crude oil futures day trading strategy.
Also Monitor Oil Resistance and Support Levels on the 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Chart Models.
Beyond using the EPIC Oil Algorithm model for weekly / daily trading strategy / structure and the one minute chart model for timing day trades, use the daily, weekly and monthly chart models for important decisions in oil trade.
The longer the charting time-frame the more serious support and resistance areas should be considered. In other words, key resistance on the monthly or weekly charts trump consideration on the daily and 4 hour and so on.
Trading trend, indicators, support and resistance, support and resistance, indicators and more should have bias to your trade sizing and positioning.
Crude oil trading strategy on 4 hour chart model, key areas of support and resistance noted with white arrows.
Although a test chart (for our machine trading), the 4 hour oil chart below has been responding well to the bounce trend in oil trade so I continue to use it. The key areas of support and resistance are noted, however, all lines are support and resistance levels.
4 Hour Crude Oil Chart – 20 MA seems the most logical support test for a long trade entry test likely 52.90 area on West Texas.
Symmetry on this chart structure says 55.30 on West Texas Crude is likely near Feb 1 and down to target. #oil #trading #strategy
Per previous;
And with this chart also, it is responding well but also is a test chart. I’ve been watching it closely as the support and resistance areas on the charting do seem to be in play. Our techs are back testing test charts.
Key support and resistance noted on weekly crude oil chart for futures trade strategy.
Other charts are used in decisions for bias toward trade, refer to the most recent Crude Oil Member EPIC Algorithm reporting and private member discord oil trading room for other charting and guidance.
It is also highly recommended that you review recent reporting, discord room chat (regular guidance is posted in the oil chat room private server) and the various videos that are released on a regular basis.
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Our Live Documented Journey to Compound Day Trading Crude Oil Futures for Gains That 99% Would Only Dream Possible…
And one of the best parts of our mad journey; we’re now beyond Concept and Theory…
and we’re proving it LIVE (well on our way to… Fact).
We are now Trading Crude Oil to Over 1% Per Day Returns, Live.
We have many other trades that are not live also because we are testing many models).
It’s been a bit of a petri dish. So far.
But as of late we’ve stopped the petri. It was unavoidable (the petri part).
Side thought – In all fairness, only we know what the petri part is (well not completely true because members do know the rules for the most part). The important point being… we’re done petri.
We are now trading crude oil in our process with consistency and ease, real-time live and we’re recording it, we are alerting the crude oil trades on a private Twitter member feed and sharing our work process (including all rules sets, thoughts, charts and more) in chat, and we’re even trading crude oil live in our oil trading room with screen share of our charts and voice broadcast from myself alerting the trades.
0.
The probabilities that our rule-set fails now after hundreds of trades, especially now that we are in minimal discovery and quickly moving to refinement and consolidation phases is… well, near 0.
Maybe.
Oh, and even more reason … our software runs trades near 24 hours a day now (non-alerted at this point), and nearly never loses. When it does, it’s for pennies. Soon we’ll unleash him/her (it) live.
Maybe.
For all intents and purpose, we don’t lose when manually executing trades either. Sure, we do lose sometimes, but very small if we do – very small. And even our manual executions are getting better all the time. And we (I) suck as traders.
Here’s an even better part; 3%, not 1% sees 10,000.00 to 2 Million Dollars in 180 days. And we’re going to do it.
Nobody knows the future! I know, I know.
1 – 3 Hours a Day.
A cool part… we do 1% or more with 1 – 3 hours a day of trade focus. Usually closer to an hour or so. We’re kind of busy with something I never thought I’d be doing…. code, machine learning, science, quantum thingys and other mind places.
Anybody Does Do It.
And better yet; anybody can do it. Why? Because we’re refining the process to its most simplest form. Quantum mind things to simple.
But there’s too many lines! I know, I know.
We have non traders (on staff) starting to use the rule-set and even starting to alert their trades. And the coolest part, they may be better at executing the trading rule-set than the experienced oil traders (initial indications are this could be very plausible).
We Like Tents… Almost as Much as We Love Beaches.
And the near best part (in my little world)… the money ain’t the motivator – I’d be equally happy living in a tent on a beach. Oh wait, I almost do. The shiny floors at the Hard Rock in Punta Cana were never my thing anyway.
And the best part; freedom is near (unless the world ends or something). Not only is freedom near for our staff (that have worked tirelessly day and night) but for our clients and members and their families and their families. Get the drift? This is why I’m so excited.
The Dream Realized. Next!
And we’re near done the first of many (instrument trading processes) we are developing. We’re in the final phases with our oil trading platform, soon it will simply be maintenance updates to the manual trading and machine trading parts of our oil trading services.
Yes, the other algorithm models and swing trading are next.
The Point?
Sharing our journey. I did promise when we started all this. That I would share.
Selling you on it. So you can join the movement to freedom. So you can help. So maybe you can be a part of it. Maybe you’ll take the next steps? Maybe anything is possible.
Maybe you will be our next donor when our software development needs a few million for the app.
Or maybe we’ll just boot strap that too.
Maybe I’ll inspire you. That would be novel.
Promises.
I also promised our sharing will end soon. It will be this year.
We’ll still be around to chat.
We’ll still have our enterprise.
We just won’t share.
It’s tiring. I just made a promise to share, to a point:)
How is it Done? … the trading up 1% gains or better in crude oil a day.
Members stay tuned for Part 2 of this post. Until then study the most recent report here:
Premarket Reporting: Per lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day – they are a way for our team to communicate with our member clients and update market conditions when time allows).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
Jan 8 – A number of trading strategy posts were sent to members recently that are not listed here. Please review blog list – ask Jen for passwords if you require them.
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
This video explains the upcoming pull back I was looking for in oil and the general markets.
I explain how I will time my Swing entries around that, trading Indices, algorithm models SPY VIX WTI BTC GLD SLV DXY etc.
It’s a much watch for trading this time period.
All the reports will be out over next 48 hours, most before market open tomorrow.
Today I am in trading room for market open, mid day and futures.
Have a great day!
Curt
Friday Jan 18 – Mid day review will be looking at Swing Trade entry points. Crude oil has been a great week, don’t miss the post from last night – important details for daytrading crude oil. Same guidance per below from recent.
Market Observation:
Markets as of 8:07 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 96.32, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 53.21, Gold $GLD trading 1282.04, Silver $SLV trading 15.26, $SPY 264.96 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 3548.00, $VIX 18.5 and NatGas 3.25.
Momentum Stocks / Gaps to Watch:
$TSLA (+1.0% pre) Tesla is reportedly in talks with China’s Lishen over Shanghai battery contract – CNBC.
$EBAY (+12.3% pre) Elliott Sends Letter to Board of Directors of eBay; Seeks Separation of StubHub and Classifieds.
$NVCN up 55% at $1.27 – Neovasc announces dismissal of claim brought by Edwards Lifesciences.
$UQM (+45.1% pre) UQM Technologies Signs Definitive Agreement to be Acquired by Danfoss – SI.
$TGTX – TG Therapeutics up 11% on receiving Breakthrough Therapy Designation for umbralisib.
$AAPL WOES SHOULD BENEFIT TELECOMS $TMUS $T $VZ – MACQUARIE.
Trade Set-ups, Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Open and Closed Trades:
Refer to date at top left of each chart (charts can be carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded decision to decision process – when trade set-up fails cut position fast. Leg in to winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide a framework to trade (chart structure enables a trader to set stops where a trade has failed or leg in to winners and trim winners). Purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of a trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy (which should be harnessed in your rules based process).
Crude oil perfect hit to mid quad on daily algorithmic model and backed off FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #CrudeOil #Chart
Crude oil perfect hit to mid quad on daily algorithmic model and backed off FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #CrudeOil #Chart
4 micro trades 4 wins 39 ticks time for a break. 2019 winning streak still in play. #oil #Trading $CL_F $WTI $USO #OOTT
#5things -No end in sight for shutdown -Chances of second Brexit referendum rise -Davos begins -Markets slip -Data, earnings due https://bloom.bg/2AYQTcm
Leveraged buyout debt is riskier today than during the LBO boom of 2006 & 2007, at least based on debt-to-ebitda ratios. https://www.ft.com/content/49c9df22-19aa-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21 …
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channeland at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List:
(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List :
(3) Other Watch-List:
(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWT, $DWT, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY), $BTCUSD Bitcoin.
SCHLUMBERGER $SLB: SUSQUEHANNA CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $54 FROM $55
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
Study:
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
Day Trading Strategy for Crude Oil Futures Trade the Week of January 20, 2019.
Oil futures open tonight at 6:00 Eastern, below is my battle plan for this week. The regular EPIC Crude Oil Weekly Reporting is taking on a different format this week per below.
My strategy this week for my oil trading is primarily based on the EPIC Oil Algorithm charting model.
The EPIC model is by far the best model we use. This week the model will be completely normalized as we are past the charting anomalies from the holiday period. The updated EPIC charting will be emailed to members after futures open and after the techs have renewed the model to new data (post open).
Trading the range of the quadrants and range of the channels.
Respecting the key resistance and support areas of the model at quadrant walls (orange dotted), channel support and resistance (orange dotted), mid quad horizontal support and resistance (horizontal line that cuts through mid quad) and the mid channel lines (light gray dotted).
Sizing should be considered at key support and resistance of the EPIC model structure. The model can be used to determine sizing bias on tighter time frames on one minute below. Sizing can also be a consideration for short term swing trading the model.
Screen capture of trade moving through EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm range in trade last week.
Screen capture of trade moving through EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm range in trade last week. #crude #oil #trading
The timing of my trades will be based on the one minute chart model.
Volume.
Wait for volume. Low volume periods have lower predictability in the models.
Trend.
Determine the intra-day direction (trend) of trade. Strong bias should be considered for long or short positioning based on intra-day trend. Upward trend I will be bias to long positions and down trend intra-day I will be bias to short positions.
Determine the trend on the daily chart, some bias should be toward that. Watch the MACD on the daily, although it is a moderately late indicator it does confirm your bias.
Check important timing for key global market open hours (inflections in day trend can occur here, especially with New York).
Support and Resistance.
In an uptrend try and execute on support of the range on the one minute trading box (short term pull back) – the opposite is true in a downtrend.
Trade Sizing and Positioning
In a predictable structure sizing intra-day should be maximum at entry and trims at mid trading box and top or bottom of trading box – specific to the 1 minute chart model.
Trim positions at mid trading box and top of trading box for long positions and the opposite is true in shorting. In a squeeze or sell-off this is more difficult. Typically I trade the break upside at resistance or downside at support breached.
Timing Entry.
The main trading box on the one minute is the support and resistance of the range (where the red and blue dotted and white dotted are), however, to pin point timing to the second you can use the pivot areas (top and bottom of range) and monitor the coil around the main support and resistance areas and use the smaller trading box around the pivots. Recent blog posts / videos discuss this and I will discuss further in near term video / blog posts.
Indicators on the one minute that I use are the Stochastic RSI, MACD and Squeeze Momentum Indicator. The nature of these indicators on a short time frame like the one minute can be deceiving for even the more advanced trader. Use them with caution.
One Minute Model for Day Trading Crude Oil Futures Jan 20 236 PM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $WTI $USO #CrudeOil #Daytrading
The main trading box range is shown in chart below with purple arrows and the pivot at support and resistance trading box is shown with white arrows (for micro timing decisions).
Trade support and resistance shown on one minute chart model for crude oil futures day trading strategy.
I will also watch resistance and support levels on the 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly chart models.
Beyond using the EPIC Oil Algorithm model for your weekly / daily trading structure and the one minute chart model for timing day trades I also use the daily, weekly and monthly chart models.
The longer the charting time-frame the more seriously support and resistance areas should be considered. In other words, key resistance on the monthly or weekly charts should trump consideration on the daily and 4 hour and so on.
Trading trend, indicators, support and resistance, support and resistance, indicators and more should have bias to your trade sizing and positioning.
Crude oil trading strategy on 4 hour chart model, key areas of support and resistance noted with white arrows.
Although a test chart (for our machine trading), this chart has been responding well to the bounce trend in oil trade so I continue to use it. The key areas of support and resistance are noted, however, all lines are support and resistance levels.
Crude oil trading strategy on 4 hour chart model, key areas of support and resistance noted with white arrows.
Key resistance and support for day trading crude oil futures on 4 hour test chart for sizing strategy on machine orders.
And with this chart also, it is responding well but also is a test chart. I’ve been watching it closely as the support and resistance areas on the charting do seem to be in play. Our techs are back testing test charts.
Key support and resistance noted on weekly crude oil chart for futures trade strategy.
Other charts are used in decisions for bias toward trade, refer to the most recent Crude Oil Member EPIC Algorithm reporting and private member discord oil trading room for other charting and guidance.
It is also highly recommended that you review recent reporting and videos released.
Jan 19 – A detailed inside look at our day traders’ strategies in crude oil day trading room.
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Tools You Can Use to Day Trade Crude Oil for a Better Win Rate. 90%+- Is Within Reach.
How to Trade Oil Successfully with the Right Strategies: Trade Alerts, Chat Room Signals, Live Trading Room, Conventional Charts, Time Cycle Knowledge and Algorithmic Models.
My position in this post is simple; if you have the technical data needed to make the right trading decisions on all time frames (your oil trading strategy) provided to you (the oil day trader) in the most efficient manner, you can out trade the general market traders and compete with world class machine oil trading firms.
We endeavor to provide such a trading platform for our members. Below I explain how we are doing that.
But first, a trade coaching session for those learning to get on the winning side of their trading… if you are a pro that only needs the technical oil trading strategies included in this post… skip this rant and scroll down.
Why do I scream from the rooftops that my win oil trading rate is so high? Why do I scream transparency and documentation of my trading journey and the development of our oil trading systems?
I scream my win rate (that anyone can review our live recorded and time stamped documentation to verify) to drive home that you do not have to accept what the book selling circle jerk crew tries to sell you, “trade price, nobody knows the future and that a 60/40 win rate is acceptable” – this is a flawed process.
You do not have to accept what the book selling circle jerk crew tries to sell you.
Study our oil trading system development and you will find that trading price doesn’t work in oil and that thinking you can’t know the future (future decisions for up, down or sideways trade and the most probable price targets) is foolish thinking.
We know with high probability where price is going to be on any time frame (from a 1 minute chart to a monthly chart and all between) and we know with high probability how to trade the decisions a trader will face on the way to the possible price targets.
We know the natural trading structure of the financial instrument – in other words, we know the playing field. We play the game with the lights on while the majority of our competition is in the dark.
We know the natural trading structure of the financial instrument – in other words, we know the playing field.
A 60/40 win rate is painful, to accept and use that system you have to take a series of significant losing side cuts to only then take advantage of a winning swing trade trend pattern move. In other words, the problem with their process is that you win big when you win but you have to endure pain to get the big win. I do this myself, but only with 10% of my account.
For example I have been DWT short for a number of weeks in preparation for the reversal in oil trade we are now experiencing. But I do it so that I get the move even when I don’t have time to day trade it.
The problem with their process is that you win big when you win but you have to endure pain to get the big win.
Another problem with the 60/40 idea (and there are hundreds of problems with this thinking) is that oil can trade sideways for many weeks, in this scenario you get chopped up and this causes your brain to be confused and you begin questioning yourself.
The method we are developing, perfecting and teaching (that we have documented live in every fashion available for proof) has a much higher rate of return and win side rate, it allows you to be in cash daily, it is much less stressful (the draw downs when you do lose can be next to zero) and it is the equivalent of Wayne Gretzky on the ice (for example).
You can simply “out stick handle” your competition.
To be a 90%+ oil trading winner takes real work to learn, but on the other side you will have much less stress, you win more often, your ROI and ROE increase significantly, your lifestyle freedom increases and the most important part is it keeps your brain in the frame work of being a winner.
Worst case scenario – you add what you can or what you prefer to use of what we have learned and passed on to you so that your oil trading win rate increases.
The bottom line.
It is critical for your brain to know it wins. When it knows you are a winner it won’t accept losses. This is critical (you would have to do a serious psychological study to learn why this is so important – maybe someday I will write about what I’ve learned).
The bottom line is that your brain develops patterns of habit that manifest in reality. Your subconscious is the leader, and it needs to know when it trades crude oil, that you win.
The bottom line is that your brain develops patterns of habit that manifest in reality.
The only way this is possible (your brain knowing that you win so it won’t accept losing which causes your execution to be disciplined) is to be able to “out -trade” your competition.
Sure, you are competing with yourself – but in reality you are competing against the world’s best when you enter the markets everyday.
The only way to out-trade your competition is to have technical market information and tools they simply do not possess and / or do not have “as efficient” access to and they haven’t defined their trading process and skill-set to the same level you have.
This is what causes one to trade win-side at a rate of over 90%. And anyone can do it.
Lets Get on With The Technical Oil Trading Strategies You Can Use to Day Trade Crude Oil for a Better Win Rate.
Oil Trade Signals: The Strategy / Guidance I Provided to Members at Start of Week.
Crude Oil Time Cycles, Area of Trade, Support, Resistance, Trading Channels.
Note: The time stamps on the Private Member Discord Oil Chat Room Server is showing my time in the Dominican Republic (this time of year it is one hour later here in DR than Eastern Time in New York).
For this post (that focuses on examples from Friday Jan 18, 2019 in our oil trading room) I will start with trade signals I provided to our members at the beginning of the week (and some prior) to provide context for the guidance explained.
Below (3rd image down) you will find a private member server screen shot (to start the week of Jan 14, 2018) I shared with the chat room of a test chart our oil machine trade coding technicians are developing for sizing trades.
In addition to using our main oil charting (the EPIC Oil Algorithm model – a proprietary model based on a 30 minute oil chart) we use many other charts (conventional and algorithmic) on many time-frames to determine back tested and correlated probabilities for oil trade resistance, support, channels, reversals, time cycles and more.
In the instance below (at start of last week) I was signaling the possible channel oil would use for weekly trade – specifically if the scenario played out during weekly trade as it related to the previously provided signals to members (that we seen a time cycle ending in crude oil December 20, 2018).
Prior to this, we had provided members (many weeks in advance of Dec 20) that the time cycle peak / conclusion was for approximately Dec 20 (with allowance for a week either way of Dec 20 because the time cycle was so large as it was based on the weekly time cycle charting).
Then on Dec 26, 2018 oil did in fact turn up in trade and hasn’t stopped trading upward since.
Between Dec 20 and Dec 26 there was one last “flash down” in oil trade which is typical at the end or peak of a time cycle on any time frame from the one minute charting to monthly charting (this is typical of the final stops being triggered and shorts covering positions).
Then on Dec 26, 2018 oil did in fact turn up in trade and hasn’t stopped trading upward since.
Oil hit a low of 42.38 on FX USOIL WTI on Dec 24, 2018 and closed Friday Jan 18, 2019 at 52.38 – less than one month later.
Oil hit a low of 42.38 on FX USOIL WTI on Dec 24, 2018 and closed Friday Jan 18, 2019 at 52.38 – less than one month later.
Also of note, we predicted the down turn in oil trade at the time cycle peak – the time cycle turn prior to the Dec 20, 2018 reversal.
See this tweet from EPIC Oil Algorithm Public Twitter feed and the post linked to our blog.
Back to Strategic Guidance Provided to Oil Chat Room Last Week:
The oil trade signals I alerted to members to assist in their oil trade strategy focused on the trading range our members could expect for oil the coming week. The alerted signals also gave our traders support and resistance areas on the charting and the most probable channel of trade (this is all in addition to the EPIC Oil Trading Weekly Report).
Curt Melonopoly Last Monday at 8:49 AM (7:49 AM EST) “It’s a machine coding doodle chart for sizing etc so its a mess, but we are looking for channel highlighted in yellow to hold for trend reversal confirmation in crude oil – use proven EPIC model for confirmation for trading”.
Oil Chat Room – looking for channel highlighted in yellow to hold for trend reversal in crude oil
Below is a screen shot of the live oil alert feed on Twitter providing the following signal to our members for the week:
“Under 52.16 FX USOIL WTI I am short term bearish, over 52.16 bullish to 53.34 and over to 55.65 – main test areas over head on weekly time frame.”
Under 52.16 FX USOIL WTI I am short term bearish, over 52.16 bullish to 53.34 and over to 55.65 – main test areas over head on weekly time frame.
The examples above provide context to the guidance we provided our oil members at recent time cycle turns and at the beginning of the week…
Now lets jump to the specific point of this post that involves trade last Friday December 18, 2019 so we can learn how to day trade the opportunities in crude oil.
At 6:40 AM Friday Jan 19, 2019 I signaled the oil chat room that oil trade looked bullish and that our traders could expect a push toward the 53.40 resistance.
You can see on the chart / screen capture below how trade for the week had maintained the channel and that oil trade was following a trajectory (light blue vertical line) that I had outlined in the chat room earlier in the week as a probable upside strategy.
The strategy for the trajectory of the uptrending blue arrow was based on trajectory of time cycle targets on the short time frame assuming oil was bullish (price targets on our algorithmic charting can be assumed at where important trend lines cross, this is consistent through all time frames on all algorithmic models – this takes some time to learn).
The resistance I was alerting our members was at the top of the trading channel so they were aware of where to be aware of possibly trimming positions or at minimum being on watch for intra-day stall in trade.
“They’re pushing for that 53.40 area today (upside scenario), above could cause a significant squeeze”.
Crude Oil Chat Room Signal – They’re pushing for that 53.40 area today (upside scenario), above could cause a significant squeeze.
On this screen capture from the oil chat room I am showing our members that trade intra day was in the bullish scenario on a 4 hour test chart. Reconfirming the bullish scenario for day trading oil upward in Friday’s trade.
You will also notice at the bottom of the screen capture – the noted alert at the bottom of the screen, “53.50 is top of quad ton EPIC model resistance today, trading 52.83 intra” that this set-up coincided with our proprietary oil algorithm charting (the core oil algorithm charting – the core of our methodology, is not included in this post).
The core oil algorithm charting – the core of our methodology, is not included in this post.
On this screen capture from the oil chat room I am showing our members that trade intra day was in the bullish scenario on a 4 hour test chart
Earlier that morning Jeremy has posted a link in the chat room to the article and video post covering trade from Thursday’s session and explanation of the one minute trading box set-up. You can study the set-up at the link below;
By far one of the most important crude oil trading articles we have posted since our inception.
Protected: How I Day Trade Crude Oil on One Minute Chart | Trading Signals | Alerts (with video)
At 920 AM right before regular market open I provide chat room a crude oil position signal for preferred long entry point.
I also re-confirm my expectation that probability for the top of the quad area of the oil algorithm in trade gets hit and that my entry signal price target (preferred entry is 52.40) so that our traders could make their own decisions for execution.
Also mentioned here, the one minute trading model (the trading box area) as the preferred entry price so that our members know where I derived the 52.40 entry preference from.
At 920 AM right before regular market open I provide chat room a crude oil position signal for preferred long entry point.
Crude oil trade alert in chat room screen shot of long execution in to open and other alerts. Long oil at 52.67 with trims at 52.93 and 53.08.
Crude oil trade alert in chat room screen shot of long execution in to open and other alerts.
Alert in oil chat room that I was closing the oil day trade at 53.03 due to internet issues and reiteration of price target 53.50 for day trade.
Then the price target for the day trade was hit. A 90 tick move so far on the day.
Alert in oil chat room that I was closing the oil day trade due to internet issues and reiteration of price target for day trade.
Below is screen shot capture of crude oil chat room of posted oil chart images of predictability of 1 minute oil day trading strategy in trading box model (as previously posted above – the Thursday featured blog post the day prior) when crude oil squeezes intra-day.
Screen shot of chat room images of predictability of 1 minute oil trade in trading box model when crude oil squeezes intra day.
As the day trading session progressed I provided a number of alerts to impending resistance on all time frames in crude oil trade range expected for the day.
heavy resistance confirming on all time frames, but in a sqz u never know
As the day trading session progressed I provided a number of alerts to impending resistance on all time frames n crude oil trade range expect for the day.
Resistance areas of oil trade for guidance for day traders to consider trimming or closing positions.
Resistance had been hit on two 4 hour charts and the EPIC Oil Algorithm 30 Minute Model at this point of trade intra-day. Other charting time frames had resistance also.
Resistance areas of oil trade and guidance for daytraders to consider trimming or closing positions.
240 Min Test Chart Scenarios posted to oil chat room revising the previous so that day trading signals for oil are updated.
240 Min Test Chart Scenarios posted to oil chat room revising the previous so that day trading signals for oil are updated.
LIVE OIL TRADING ROOM VIDEO | HOW TO DAY TRADE CRUDE OIL – STRATEGIES I USE.
#daytrade #crudeoil
Summary Notes for Video:
Note: Voice broadcast starts at 16:25 on video. When I am trading and on mic is noted below (the location times on video).
At 16:25 on video “I am triggering long 52.67 with tight stops because of test on 240 minute crude oil charting, so I may trigger in and out here, we’ll see. Will probably get in to pressure right in to open here but I didn’t want to miss the move. A little bit of FOMO.”
At 19:50 on video “The one minute candle turn in advance of market open is coming here, get ready for some pressure.”
Keep in mind the strategy guidance provided to members in the oil chat room specific to the preferred by trigger at 52.40 (in other words support on one minute day-trading model).
And Then The Internet Crashes! A Work Crew Down the Street Cut The Line.
At 23:00 mins on video I come on mic to announce the internet problem to the trading room (at which time I didn’t know what the specific problem with the internet was).
At 24:50 on video the pressure in oil trade comes (which made sense to me considering the resistance decision but I decided to hold because oil was so bullish through the time cycle). I could have cut and re-entered which may have yielded a better profit by 10 ticks or so.
And then the internet continues to crash intermittently. Had the internet not been crashing I would have been on mic providing our traders guidance.
At 56:40 I announce we are back up on a cellular network and that I am holding the position.
At 1:10:50 On video I announce I am trimming at 53.08 holding 25% – there was significant resistance on the EPIC Oil Algorithm so I trimmed.
In the trading chat room (not on video due to internet issues) I announce I am closing trade due to internet issues even though price wasn’t to the top of the algorithm quadrant and price target for the day, “closed 53.03 may re enter i had to close due to internet.”
Had the internet been restored timely I would have traded right top of quadrant and price target for the day.
At 1:18:00 on video you can see trade hitting the price target for the day (top of algorithm quadrant).
In a normal scenario I would have been trading the one minute trading chart model in the trading boxes and on mic in the trading room announces my trades. But on this day as fate would have it I couldn’t do it because I couldn’t risk the internet crashing while on the temporary cellular platform we were using.
Important note:
Much of the proprietary charting links, member oil reporting, and proprietary algorithmic charting is not included in this post. In 2019 we have started to limit dissemination of proprietary content due to copy cat trading firms.
Summary Thoughts for Context.
It is important to note that there were many many more trade alerts, charting updates, chat room trades / signals / guidance and trading room live trade coverage for the week.
Our members have much, much more information available to them for crude oil day trading decisions needed every day of the week on all time frames.
Having advanced technical know-how derived from a systematic scientific process that gets fed in to our various oil trading platform services to trading members allows for our members to “out stick handle” the everyday trading community and compete with world class machine trading firms.
My win rate and the oil machine trading win rate was well over 90% for the week and the reason is the combined tools available – available to myself, to our machine trading techs and thus the developed software and also made available to the members in our oil trading service.
If you have any questions send me a note please!
Best and peace!
Curt
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
