Volatility (VIX) Market Time Cycle Update for 2020/21. Part 1 – A Review of Recent Volatility History.

Volatility time cycles affect the financial markets globally. Our time cycle work focuses on Volatility as a foundation and our trading in other key instruments reflects this. Other key instruments are SP500 $SPY $SPX, Crude Oil $CL_F $USO $USOIL, Gold $GC_F $GLD, Silver $SLV, US Dollar $DXY $UUP, Bitcoin $BTC.

We also weigh our stock swing trading (position trading) heavily on our time cycle work in Volatility.

In recent months and years our time cycle work has predicted the primary volatility spikes in markets with uncanny accuracy, this has significantly bolstered our Profit & Loss in Volatility trading, commodities, stocks and crypto.

This series of chart model updates and guidance provides the most recent code break updates for Volatility and the other instruments of trade listed above. First lets look look at Volatility (VIX).

Volatility (VIX) Index last peaked in a primary time cycle trading in the low 80’s between March 7-17 2020. It was trading below 20.00s for sometime prior and then volatility spiked. 

Volatility, time cycles, swing trading

Volatility (VIX) Index last peaked trading low 80’s between March 7 – 17 2020 trading below 20.00s for sometime prior #volatility #swingtrading #timecycles

This presented our trading team and subscribers the opportunity to add to our long positioning in $VXX (short term volatility) and $OVX (oil volatility) in advance of the spike. It also allowed for us to prepare for a significant market sell-off. We closed all long positions in equities four days prior to the SP500 starting it’s COVID sell – off. We had opportunity to the short in size equities such as MasterCard (MA), Nike (NKE), WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) and many more for significant gains.

Last #timecycle we sold off longs 4 days b4 turn down, hammered short Mastercard $MA, WYNN $WYNN, NIKE $NKE etc & long $VIX $OVX at lows when hardly anyone was positioning same, then covered shorts in to turn, long $BA etc recent rally (check dates) #timecycles #swingtrading

$OVX spiked from the 20.00s to 330.00s and even flashed in to the 500.00s. We were adding long positioning in $OVX in the 20.00s and selling as the price spiked in to 330.00s. We didn’t hold to the 500.00s. We also had opportunity to profit from $VXX in the volatility run-up.

There were many other trades around this time cycle that benefited our performance greatly. Look for our Profit and Loss Statements soon to be release (posted to the main page of www.compoundtrading.com).

More recently there was a volatility mid cycle inflection that seen VIX start to rise June 8 from low 20s to mid 40s over a week.

swing trading, VIX, volatility

More recently there was a volatility mid cycle inflection that seen VIX start to rise June 8 from low 20s to mid 40s over a week #swingtrading #VIX

The inflection points between significant cycle peaks are areas of possible spikes. We recently adjusted for this possible inflection and it paid dividends, nothing like the primary March 2020 time cycle spike, but paid us and helped adjust various other swing trade holdings.

I have been reporting to our members for some time that this season of time cycles (2020 – 2025) would see significantly more volatility within volatility, a compression of time cycle duration(s) and viciousness of the cycle peaks. The most recent “inflection” is evidence of the compressed timing of cycles (volatility within volatility cycles and the time between spikes).

Even the most recent Volatility $VIX inflection was a decent trade with $VXX spiking in to 45.00s from high 28.00s and the primary cycle seen 13.00s to 78.00s, not bad.

swing trading, $VXX

Even the most recent Volatility $VIX inflection was a decent trade with $VXX spiking in to 45.00s from high 28.00s and the primary cycle seen 13.00s to 78.00s, not bad.

Most recent $OVX Crude Oil Volatility started to spike in March from 20.00s to 330.00 and then really hit end of April in to 500s. #swingtrading $OVX

During the last time cycle we we buying oil volatility on every dip at near bottoms knowing where the time cycle peak was, $OVX was in the 20’s and rocketed in to the 300s fast, we didn’t hit that by coincidence. Our $VIX model is clear, the cycles are very clear. #timecycles

So this is an example of how the primary volatility indicator $VIX time cycles can be used for other related market instruments and also why it is important to have the time cycle models for the other instruments you trade as well, in this instance crude oil. What a trade that was.

swing trading, OVX, oil volatility

Most recent $OVX Crude Oil Volatility started to spike in March from 20.00s to 330.00 and then really hit end of April in to 500s. #swingtrading $OVX

We also use $TVIX and / or $UVXY on short time frames right in to the time cycles. Instruments you do not want to hold.

$TVIX up 41% today, pays HUGE to know your Time Cycles, also protects your ass ets knowing the time cycles $VIX #volatilitytrading #timecycles

So that is a review of what has happened in volatility so far in 2020 and next we need to look at what’s next in volatility trading and develop our trading strategies for volatility and related instruments.

Part 2 (premium) article for Volatility $VIX time cycles will provide the charting models, time cycle dates for primary volatility time cycles, inflection dates on watch, compressed volatility within volatility dates, support (buy zones) with timing and resistance selling zones with price targets for the dates within the cycles going in Q3 and Q4 2020 and then in to 2021.

The most recent Swing Trading Sunday $STUDY Webinar session on June 14, 2020 had a dedicated segment on volatility time cycles so in part 2 we will start with that video and then start to break open all of the trading strategies for volatility going forward.

There will be historic opportunities in these large time cycle between 2020 – 2025 as I have been saying for a number of years, do not waste it! This is a life changing season of trade for traders.

Part 2 of this article is available here for members:

Protected: Volatility Time Cycle Code Break 2020/21 Update (Part 2 Premium) $VIX $VXX $OVX $ UVXY $TVIX #swingtrading #timecycles

As always, if you have any questions reach out anytime [email protected].

Peace and best.

Curt

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Article Topics; swing trading, time cycles, volatility, $VIX, $VXX, $OVX, $UVXY,, $TVIX

 


Market Update: Premarket Trading

Morning traders,

Monday was quiet for us, most of the portfolio rising, some trimming of profits of course, best swing run in our history.

The Boeing $BA trade below is an example of the time cycle we’ve had on the swing trading platform:

What a great trade, more than a double in Boeing $BA from 107s to 231s, holding some profit runner 🎯🏹🔥

#swingtrading

Still have many profit runners and new positions start over the next 7 or 8 trading days for the cycle in to end of August – watch the swing trade alerts feed for new positions as we come out of this time cycle inflection.

$AAPL $INTC – Apple announcing Mac chips at WWDC – Bloomberg https://seekingalpha.com/news/3581457-apple-announcing-mac-chips-wwdc-bloomberg?source=tweet #swingtrading

Today is soft so far, except some highly speculative day trader stocks $IDEX $IZEA $EYES $AQMS etc wow. Watching close.

Going to short TESLA $TSLA to the moon and back when the time is right

“I would like to be able to get more money to buy more
@Tesla
actually,” says legendary investor Ron Baron. $TSLA

We’re in live trading room, EPIC oil trading software active so the live oil trading alerts are also, likely some day trades firing in to open and swing trading reporting coming today with a number of set-ups, time cycle inflection last week this week so we’ll see how that goes.

Active morning for EPIC V3.1.1 crude oil trading alerts, went deep diving 37.25 trading 38.22 inta day #OOTT $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $XLE

oil trading alerts, trading room, crude oil

Active morning for EPIC V3.1.1 crude oil trading alerts, went deep diving 37.25 trading 38.22 inta day #OOTT $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $XLE

Oil down on stronger dollar, oversupply concerns https://reut.rs/2Ygx7DV #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL Thread https://twitter.com/davidgaffen/status/1270322515047481346

Some on schedule:

FOMC

FOMC decision: What to know in the week ahead

8:55
Redbook

10:00
Wholesale Trade
JOLTS

4:30
API Crude Oil Data with EIA 10:30 Wed

LIVE: President
@realDonaldTrump
holds a news conference

Thanks

Curt

 


Algorithmic Trading Strategies for Crude Oil (CL) Day Trading, Trend and Swing Trading. Intra-Day, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Time-Frames.

This is a supplemental document for CL trade strategies for and as included in our algorithmic client oil reporting.

The various reporting included for our clients includes and is not limited to; live oil trade alerts (on Twitter, Discord, email and live in our Trading Room), conventional charting, algorithmic chart models, various trade signals, price targets, symmetry, time cycles and various other guidance.

We endeavor to assimilate the vast algorithmic data our computer scientists derive for our oil traders to action for a trader’s edge.

The algorithmic material is suitable for actionable mechanically executed trading and are also the models our coding team reference for our crude oil machine learning trade development.

You will find in the array of documentation and reporting we provide a well developed, time-tested proven rules based system for crude oil trading that is one of the best available.  Oil traders should use all the models together as a structured system of trade for it to work to your best advantage.

With each chart model (in various reporting) we may include “best-use” trade strategy notes and/or “rules-based trade indications” for your consideration. The oil trading room and study of the Discord oil chat room is your best resource for real-time learning.

For perspective, review historical reporting on our blog and the various videos we have published to the Compound Trading YouTube channel.

Much of the structured model discipline developed in our system is similar in concept as discussed in this video; Mathematician Who Cracked Wall Street.

Our “How to Trade Crude Oil” Recommendations.

Crude oil price moves within structured areas (ranges) of trade represented on charting on various time frames (different time cycles of trade) often in symmetrical price extensions or mirrored fractals, historical price support and resistance, channels and simple price ranges.

The structure oil price moves within (the range of price) can be one minute charting (and more recently some machine trade is as low as 15 second time-frame) timing through to monthly charting.

Time-frame set-ups / strategies included in reporting are charted as conventional chart set-ups and/ or algorithmic chart set-ups (structures).

Understanding and having each chart time-frame at your immediate access (both conventional and algorithmic) will increase the probability of profitable trading.

You will find in reviewing the raw recorded video feed or in attending the live oil trading room that in the morning a lead trader will often review on mic the various levels of support and resistance on various oil trade time-frames on the charting to establish the most probable areas of trade for the strategy of trade.

The lead trader will also check with all the chart time-frames prior to entering a day trade at various times through the day.

When multiple time-frames agree to support or resistance (especially symmetrical) areas on the charting (with trend) this becomes your highest probability area of trade execution, we have found this to be one of the best oil trading strategies.

Sizing trades appropriate to your trading account, probability of support or resistance (multiple oil chart time-frames in agreement) and time frame for each set-up is a positive strategy.

Using the correct chart time-frame specific to your trading strategy is critical. Generally, the lower (smaller) the time frame the less predictable the support and resistance areas (or structure) of the chart will be. However, the larger time-frames (monthly, weekly, daily) may also have significant “slippage” but the primary structure will often remain intact.

Generally, the idea is to enter your positions based on the structure for the specific time frame you are wanting to trade referencing the other time frame support and resistance or range within the trend. The basic method is to understand the range of trade and execute trade long bias when price is near support for the appropriate time frame / structure and the opposite is true for short trades.

Our staff use the thirty minute model structures (range within trends) most often for primary areas of support and resistance trading signals referencing all other time-frames in their trading strategy. More recently the 60 minute and 120 minute time-frames are being used by our staff as it provides a wider view of the current structure of oil trade (post COVID black swan machine code updates).

Trade positions should be significantly biased to the trending range of trade. 

Below are recent videos from webinars we recorded in our Oil Trading Room:

“How to Profit With EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trades.”

“How to Use Our Oil Trading Services. Oil Trade Alerts, Oil Trading Room, Oil Reports, Trade Coaching”.

The recently released white paper(s) about EPIC v3 explains also its method of execution of trades and is a great supplemental piece of documentation for live human traders to reference for trading bias, see the report here;

EPIC V3.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update | June 4, 2020 White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL

EPIC V3.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update Details | White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL

White Paper: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading Methods

If you have questions about the models below please email us at [email protected] and if you are a client you can send your Whatsapp phone number to that email and connect direct to our lead trader for intra-day question(s).

Not all charts are updated every week and some concept or test charts are added or deleted on occasion.

Be sure to check the time-stamp of each chart in reporting as the preparation of charts and/or models can take days prior to publication and distribution of this report.

If you are a new client that would like to review historical reports that are still locked on the blog from public view please email the office with your request and we will send you recent report credentials for unlocking reports for review.

Please note, chart links that support the models and unlisted videos from live trade, for reporting set-ups and webinars are now distributed specific to each user or small group of users. If you are using more than one device to access these, to avoid disruption of service, please email us a simple / general description of those devices to assist in controlling dissemination.

EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Model. 30 Minute Oil Chart Structure (see historical client reporting for the model).

The EPIC algorithm model chart is a proprietary structure that has been back tested sixty months on thirteen time-frames. The model represents the most probable areas of support and resistance in oil trade within this specific time-frame. During a black swan event adjust your trade bias to a larger 60 minute or 120 minute algorithmic model time-frame.

This (the EPIC 30 Minute Oil Algorithm Chart Model) is our most proven oil trading structure / strategy.

The levels noted on the EPIC model are to be used as important areas of consideration for support and resistance (trade signals) for your trading strategy when using conventional charting set-ups / structures and/or other algorithmic charting.

Resistance and support areas on the thirty minute oil trade structure chart are at each line on the algorithmic chart. The primary areas of support and resistance are;

  • Outer quadrant walls / also used as channel support and resistance (orange dotted diagonal lines), the half way point between each is often an executable buy or sell trigger in trade,
  • Mid channel line for uptrend and down trend (white dotted diagonal),
  • Mid quad horizontal (not marked but is at the mid point of the quad),
  • Fibonacci levels (various horizontal colored lines on model),
  • Historical areas of support and resistance (purple horizontal lines on model).
  • The intra-week swing trading range is from thick horizontal gray line to the next (commonly becomes a pivot area of trade). You will find on the larger time frame models of the one hour, two hour and four hour that these key horizontal swing range support and resistance levels are marked as green and gray alternating.
  • The important historical diagonal trend-lines (conventional trend lines) are represented on the chart as thick white lines.
  • Also of note are the price targets for Tuesday 4:30 PM (API), Wednesday 10:30 AM (EIA) and Friday 1:00 PM (Rig Count). The Tuesday and Wednesday targets hit significantly more often than the Friday target (red circles with red or green vertical dotted lines intersecting).
  • At times other indicators are added to the chart such as important trend lines “in play”, moving averages and more.

The video at this link explains How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, #OIL, #Trading, #Algorithm, #OOTT as does this video Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm Model Chart June 21 #OIL #OOTT and this Webinar 1: EPIC the Oil Algorithm.

When conventional crude oil charting coincides (or agrees) with the EPIC algorithmic model support and resistance this is then considered a significant buy or sell trigger (signal) for crude oil trade.

Be aware (at minimum) of the primary support and resistance areas on the larger time-frames (lower time frames are not as critical) – in this instance (when trading the 30 min time frame) the 1 hour, 2 hour, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly charting should be considered when sizing your trades.

Also, more recently we have been adding models for the one hour and two hour time-frames (post COVID black swan event), please be sure to review these models as they are sent out.

This document is sent out to clients for the purpose of “supplemental” to the regular reporting to keep the regular reporting as short as possible. Also, ultimately it is the intra-day or intra-week information provided to our clients that also becomes key for trade bias.

I will also update this document extensively in the near future with a number of live trade video clips to show examples of intra-day trade, swing trade and position trading strategies we are using (for study guide purposes).

Thank you.

Curt

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

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Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Article Topics; Crude Oil, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Algorithm, Algorithmic, Trading, Trend, Position, Intra Day, Machine Trading, Supplement Article

 

 

 


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