A Real-Life Simple to Reproduce, Consistent Example of a Winning Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy From Our Lead Trader.
How Algorithmic Trading Can Help You Win Consistently (from our trading room on Friday). Man and Machine.
Day trading crude oil futures is not easy… but it is at the same time. The most difficult for me is executing trades based on what I know is right – the most probable winning trade set-ups for buy/sell signals as provided by our algorithmic oil trading model.
This is why I always tell our clients to study the rule-set and use trade alerts only for a heads-up and to use your own trading plan based on your understanding, sizing, comfort area etc. Behind the alerts is a real trader too (at least as it applies to my alerts, our machine trading alerts are a different story going forward).
The buy/signals provided by our algorithm provide structured day trading that increases my win rate greatly – but only when I respect the rules of the model.
I have published a number of articles now detailing the basic rules of the model to assist traders with a better win rate. My personal win rate went from (at best) 60% to approximately 90% (it fluctuates between 80%-95% on an annual basis – there is an ebb and flow). All time stamped live trade alerts.
In our oil trading room last Friday I was triggering trades as was our machine trading technician – man vs. machine (again).
The bottom line: the machine (without effort) won (following the rule-set), and I won – that is until I got greedy.
Both the machine trading technician and I were triggering long side positions near the same time in to the Friday regular market open (my long entries were adds to the previous night futures trade I was already in).
The trade worked well and when the trade met its price target area of the algorithmic model structure (resistance) the machine trade trimmed and then closed on some pull-back and I closed completely.
But I started looking for a further break-out above the algorithmic model signal of resistance as provided by EPIC the Crude Oil Algorithm (after I already had a winning trade). This was the error.
But I started looking for a further break-out above the algorithmic model signal of resistance as provided by EPIC the Crude Oil Algorithm (after I already had a winning trade).
So yes, my day was affected negatively (not that bad because I recovered some by trading bounces during the intra-day reversal sell off), but not good because my trading day could have been very positive vs. negative / stressful on the day.
There is a low stress easier way – just follow the rules of the model. The algorithmic trading model provides a consistent, simple, highly profitable structure for day trading (and even swing trading) crude oil.
The Trade Details (actual screen shots of the alert feed, charting and commentary).
Below is the initial alert (screen shot from our trade alert feed on Twitter) by our oil machine trading technician at 9:17 AM on Friday October 19, 2018. The technician alerted a trade signal long machine buy program in to the regular market open at 69.25 on the algorithmic charting.
Crude Oil Trade Alert (screen shot) – Machine Trade Buy program initiated in to open 69.25 917 AM – 19 Oct 2018.
At 9:20 PM October 18, 2018 in futures trade the night prior (Thursday night) I alerted to the feed a long side trade entry at 68.93 as a test trade for the break of upside resistance area. So at this point I was in at 68.93 long and the technician was in the trade at 69.25 the next morning.
Oil Trade Alert (Lead Trader) Screen Shot. Long test 68.93 tight, break res upside test 920 PM – 18 Oct 2018
Less than one minute later (after the technician alerted) I was alerting adds to my existing trade (we were obviously loading our trades and alerts at near the exact same time).
Oil trade alert (screen shot) Adds in to open – lead trader (watch open, will close fast if it fails but it does look like it will squeeze possibly).
The Buy Signals Triggering a Long Oil Trade Alert:
On a conventional crude oil 1 minute chart for FX USOIL WTI, the long side trade entry alert signal sent out to members of our oil trading service was based on a number of signals that combined (in momentum and confirmed with the algorithm model) provide high probability to a winning day trade – the signals are as follows:
Intra day trade in to regular market open breached the Fibonacci trend-line resistance (grey dotted line),
Trade breached the trading box to the upside (red box on chart),
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator turned green again,
The MACD turned up again,
The Stochastic RSI had turned back up after near bottom (the closer to bottom the better in most instances),
Trade was above the 200 MA (moving average) having just retested its support (pink on chart),
Trade was above VWAP (orange on chart),
Trade was above the intra-day trend support line (yellow line on chart).
Positive buy flow volume was increasing in to open (volume bars on chart with blue highlights),
The momentum of trade was subsequently on the bullish side,
The algorithmic model was also in agreement (shown below and to understand the model takes some study).
On conventional USOIL WTI chart, trade entry based on Fib, trading box, SQZMOM, MACD, Stoch RSI, 200 MA, VWAP, vol, momentum.
On the crude oil algorithmic charting model the following reasons were in play to confirm the long trade:
The upside price target area on the chart that had a time cycle concluding on Friday at 1:00 PM (see white arrow on chart) was most probable considering the fact that trade was above the mid trading quadrant horizontal support line (thick grey horizontal line). Which in this instance was also a primary support line for the wider time-frame for swing trading oil (which makes it a significant support area on the chart).
In futures trade the night before, oil trade had broke to the upside of the mid quad resistance area (grey horizontal line as described above and shown on chart below).
There was a hidden pivot (not shown on the algorithm charting but highlighted here for demonstration purposes in bright yellow – horizontal dotted yellow line on chart). The idea being that if trade momentum was turned up in to open that this hidden pivot was likely to be breached to the upside and would then become yet another support confirming the bias to the upside target on the model.
The algorithmic charting model price target described above is the “easy” trade signal I refer to in the title of this post. At any given time of trade intra-day we can provide the most probable price target for the coming time cycle conclusions. I won’t go in to detail here (that is a completely different article). You can read our other oil trading posts, become a member, watch our videos on how to use the oil algorithm, get some trade coaching or attend a boot camp for more details to this process.
The algorithmic charting model price target described above is the “easy” trade signal I refer to in the title of this post.
Another thought (off-topic a tad), consider the trading quadrant – there were four or five excellent long and short entry points on the model at the quad wall resistance and support areas. This week our machine trading technician is alerting to the EPIC Private Member Twitter Feed those trades (I will also continue as normal).
AND if you look at my original long entry the night prior in futures trade, that trade signal is an even easier trade signal – price was breaching the mid pivot on the trading quad of the model (gray line) which is also the wide swing trading support and resistance area of the charting.
On algorithmic oil charting trade was based on momentum in to pivot with most probable price target up.
I then provided our members with the trade strategy (guidance) with price targets at 69.70, 69.78 and 69.80 at 9:24 AM (right after the market opened). The price targets are where there are resistance areas of the algorithm chart provided above.
Crude oil trading alert twitter feed screen shot – price targets for daytrade 69.70, 69.78, 69.80 in upside scenario.
At 9:35 AM I provided further trade strategy / guidance explaining that I was looking for a reversal in the recent trend of crude oil trade (I had distributed a 4 hour chart to our membership by email the night before that I reference in the alert).
Perspective – reversal trade scenario, if it fails extreme caution to next level down 4 hour chart (yellow TL).
At 9:40 I publish the 4 hour oil chart with intra day trade and the two trend line support areas of the chart I was watching. Providing trade guidance that if the current support was lost in trade that we were likely turning down to the next support area on the chart in the 67’s.
If this area fails 67s are in play #crude #oil #tradealerts FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO.
Below is the 4 hour USOIL WTI chart provided to members that shows the general trend line support area of crude oil trade.
Crude oil lines on 4 hour chart FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #OOTT.
At 9:42 AM Oct 19, 2018 (25 minutes after the trade alert long oil) the machine trading alert was posted to the Twitter feed with guidance to trim at 69.58 in trade and then possibly add to the long position at 69.58 (obviously if the indicators provided a buy signal).
Machine Oil Trade Alert – Trims initiate 69.58 with adds on intra day pull backs 942 AM – 19 Oct 2018.
The reason for the trade alert issued to members to trim long positions on oil algorithm was that trade intra-day was nearing the Fibonacci trend-line resistance area on chart model (trading quadrant wall). Trade was also nearing the peak of the algorithm trading range intra-day (the apex of the model.) These are the same reasons I exited my long trade as provided below in the next section.
Notice on the chart below trade had hit 69.75’s and the trade alert (as above) price targets for the trade strategy for the day in crude oil based on the algorithmic model were published as “price targets for day trade 69.70, 69.78, 69.80 in upside scenario.”
Reason for trim trade alert on oil algorithm – Fibonacci trendline resistance area on chart model.
At 9:45 AM I closed my trade at 69.57. Not a bad trade considering my entries at long crude oil at 68.93 with adds in 69.25’s. A 45 tick trade average in oil is a decent day trade (450.00 on 1 contract or in this instance about 4x that).
Oil trade alert – Closed 69.57 will re-renter on pull back in price or squeeze.
At 9:58 the technician trade closed on a pull back (the other half of the trade) at 69.43 – a 26 tick average. A decent trade profit, especially considering it lasted just over 30 minutes and it was low stress. It took me 12 hours to close a 45 tick trade and the tech 35 minutes to close a 26 tick trade – obviously the technician’s use of time was more efficient.
It gets worse for me though, because I thought I’d try and get a break upside primary resistance on the algorithmic oil charting. The technician followed a simple rule-set (wait for trade to prove out and then enter) and didn’t follow me in to my trade (he can’t because he is obligated to a specific rule-set for triggering trades).
The additional trade I entered I won’t detail here with screen shots etc, but I will say that it turned against me almost immediately and I should have exited the trade immediately.
As oil sold off some intra-day I held my position and added on a bounce and sold on the bounce and chiseled my way to a small loss – but a loss nonetheless. It was a waste of time.
The two primary mistakes I made in my second trade:
I entered a long trade at the resistance of the algorithmic trading model. That is not a correct way to position a trade. I closed the previous trade properly but did not start the new trade properly.
When intra day trade went against my position I should have closed for a small loss, but I did not.
There are other details and reasons for the trading decisions that were made, however, for simplicity and to keep this instructional post to a digestible size I will leave it here.
To increase your crude oil trading skill-set we have a number of tools you can use.
There is a link below to our oil trading academy page that has a number of links to articles on our site,.
You can book private online trade coaching via Skype.
Join our live trading room.
Sign on to our oil trading alert feed subscription, (alerts are on a private member Twitter feed).
Sign on to our weekly algorithm reporting that provides the algorithm model, conventional charting, guidance for the week etc.
Attend a trading boot camp (in person or online).
Request via email the videos of our most recent trading boot camp or the master class series videos (both sets are approximately 20 hours each). They are available only by email request at this time by emailing [email protected]. Soon they will be posted to our shop on website.
Thanks
Curt
Any questions let me know!
Further Reading On Our Website That Will Help You Trade Oil Successfully:
Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Thursday October 18, 2018.
In this premarket trading edition: OIL, $PTI, $ECYT, $NFLX, $TSLA, $SQ, $ROKU, $SHOP, $FEYE, $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $BTC and more.
Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading Group.
Notices:
Notes in red text in this report are more recently important.
Scheduled Events:
Oct 18 – Lead trader booked for main trading room for market open 9:30 AM, 12:00 PM mid day review and futures trading this evening 6:00 PM (as available and as market demands).
Main live trading room – 24 hours a day (regular sessions and futures, with 1 hour breaks every 10 hours for server reboots) live recorded trading with Lead Trader. Exceptions include; Trade Coaching Boot Camps, Special Trading Webinars and when Lead Trader is not available.
What’s New / Work in Progress:
New pricing published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
Trading Profit and Loss Published for Q1 and Q2 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
Trading Boot Camp Event videos become available on Compound Trading website.
Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
1 day Bootcamps in November for each of the seven trading models and swing and daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
3 day Trading Bootcamp November 2018 (online or in person)
Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members.
Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members.
Machine Trade Coding Team Mandates: In current development and roll-out has commenced (1) Intelligent Assisted #IA Trading Platform (Code Algorithm Models), (2) Operate 24 Hour Crypto Trading Desk, (3) Alert Trade Set-ups to Member Alert Feeds (for all models) and (4) Machine Learning.
Premarket Report: On lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
October 18 – I will continue chewing around the edges of this crude oil sell-off at support areas for a reversal to the retracement and try and get a decent short position also when I can at upside resistance. Serious, serious pressure here in oil trade BUT support areas for possible reversal are starting to hit now on various charting time-frames and structures – BUT that doesn’t mean it will reverse. It reverses when it reverses, trade the indicators not bias.
Notes per recent remain:
Watching NFLX, SQ, ROKU, SHOP, FEYE very close right now and swinging them all. TSLA trade yesterday went great, still holding 25% on the swing side. Today is all about OIL with EIA.
PSTG has an upgrade I’m watching also.
I am leaning toward equity markets possibly holding up in to end of Oct early Nov, Gold Silver Crypto likely pressure in to that time frame, Oil likely pressure in to that time frame and VIX also. And then end of Oct early Nov that should switch.
This is a leaning bias – a general outlook. However, I do see significant risk that could trigger volatility at any time here. But generally equity markets should hold to that late Oct early Nov with VIX GOLD SILVER OIL under pressure and then the opposite should turn toward mid Dec time cycle peak. See the most recent oil trading strategies video.
I know I’ve been promising the remaining model reports for some time, last night we ran the machine trading tests on EPIC and it is working so I can leave the staff to that and now start getting the reporting out. The software development part of our biz I have to admit has been a challenge to our time.
It’s difficult to explain in short how complicated software development is with machine trading launch. But we’re learning to manage it. We’re in it to win it – we won’t give up and we’re making serious progress, that’s the bottom line.
Notes per recent remain.
Looking for possible short term sell off in oil with a spike in VIX, Gold, Silver and then markets should levitate for short term bringing VIX Gold Silver Crypto soft and then reversal again and again and rinse and repeat to mid December 2018 minimum.
Notes per recent…. this remains.
Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It’s big, watch.
Further to that public Twitter post, over next two quarters I expect the equity markets to continue under serious pressure in to rates, after a technical retracement oil to skyrocket unless Trump can get a handle on the price somehow (trying with Saudi’s now), Dollar likely to spike hard for some time then fall off a cliff, volatility to increase, Gold and Silver get up and going soon and Crypto to fly. That’s my bias, thesis, trading plan in to next two quarters. Timing will be key. All of our reporting will reflect this near term and will also focus on key swing trading set-ups within themes.
Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It's big, watch.
TESLA on watch in lower area of recent range, likely take a short term swing trade in TSLA today – long.
Gold, Silver and others I have now and I’m doing final edits. To be distributed over next day or two. Letting the set-ups firm up and start trading them again possibly as of Sunday night futures.
Likely start trading Bitcoin XBTUSD and VIX in to next week now also in to mid Dec time cycle.
SPY got a bump in premarket with jobs numbers, as with others above likely trading that aggressive in to time cycle peak mid Dec also come next week.
Oil in a small pull back but expect bullish trend to continue next week.
Market Observation:
Markets as of 7:58 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 95.65, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 71.48, Gold $GLD trading 1224.20, Silver $SLV trading 14.53, $SPY 279.56 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 6435.00 and $VIX trading 18.2.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have opened the oil taps, just as they promised. Here’s a full rundown of OPEC+ output in September https://bloom.bg/2yKj7pa #Oil #OPEC #OOTT
A Turkish newspaper accuses a Saudi security official close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the disappearance of #JamalKhashoggi, as Washington keeps up its cautious stance.
A Turkish newspaper accuses a Saudi security official close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the disappearance of #JamalKhashoggi, as Washington keeps up its cautious stance https://t.co/IATK6lSgx8
Trade Set-up Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Trade Alerts, Open and Closed Trades:
Please refer to the date at top left of each chart (charts are often carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded as decision to decision process – when the trade set-up fails cut your position fast. Leg in to the winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit the losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide the framework for your trade (the chart structure enables the trader to set stops where a trade is a failed trade and leg in to winners and trim winners per the chart). The purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of the trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy that should be harnessed in your rules based process.
Crude oil lines on 4 hour chart FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #OOTT
Daytrading Crude Oil – Screen Shot of Oil Trade Alerts Feed with signals for long oil trade and closing trade.
Daytrading Crude Oil – Screen Shot of Oil Trade Alerts Feed with signals for long oil trade and closing trade.
Our swing trade that started in premarket yesterday couldn’t have been better timing with SEC mins after then this… $TSLA Tesla’s stock jumps after Elon Musk discloses plan to buy $20 million worth of shares
Our swing trade that started in premarket yesterday couldn't have been better timing with SEC mins after then this… $TSLA Tesla's stock jumps after Elon Musk discloses plan to buy $20 million worth of shares https://t.co/lvBf2QhYTm
NETFLIX (NFLX) up premarket on earnings, key resistance points to watch if trading this move $NFLX #swingtrading #earnings #upgrades
NETFLIX (NFLX) up premarket on earnings, key resistance points to watch if trading this move $NFLX #swingtrading #earnings #upgrades
SQUARE (SQ) blowing through resistance points in move, over 81.40 targets 83.40 85.40. $SQ #swingtrade #tradealerts
SQUARE (SQ) blowing through resistance points in move, over 81.40 targets 83.40 85.40. $SQ #swingtrade #tradealerts
FIREEYE (FEYE) long bounce working toward upper price targets in to earnings, watch resistance points for trims #swingtrade $FEYE
FIREEYE (FEYE) long bounce working toward upper price targets in to earnings, watch resistance points for trims #swingtrade $FEYE
SHOPIFY (SHOP) bounced at top of trading box, resistance 154.00 earnings 8 days, over 156 long targets 166 then 177 $SHOP #swingtrading #earnings
SHOPIFY (SHOP) bounced at top of trading box, resistance 154.00 earnings 8 days, over 156 long targets 166 then 177 $SHOP #swingtrading #earnings
That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT
That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT
Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart Reviewed at 950 mins on video.
Crude Oil Daily Chart, MACD crossed down with trade testing mid pivot Oct 15 1244 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Crude Oil Daily Chart, MACD crossed down with trade testing mid pivot Oct 15 1244 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
TESLA (TSLA) At trading box range support EOD Friday, in a bounce it targets 280.34 Nov 20, 2018 $TSLA #swingtrading
TESLA (TSLA) At trading box range support EOD Friday, in a bounce it targets 280.34 Nov 20, 2018 $TSLA #swingtrading
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) MACD turned down but over 200 MA and channel support. On watch for adds to trade. $ARWR #swingtrading #tradealerts
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) MACD turned down but over 200 MA and channel support. On watch for adds to trade. $ARWR #swingtrading #tradealerts
Working the daytrade edges on SP500 $SPY #daytrading #tradealerts
Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #oil #trading #algorithm
Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL$WTI$CL_F$USO#oil#trading#algorithmpic.twitter.com/qa0HueviTl
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channeland at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
Gap’s stock sinks after J.P. Morgan turns bearish, citing sales weakness and margin pressure
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
Study:
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
Crude Oil Day Trading Strategies From Our Oil Trading Room Video Footage.
If there is one thing we have seen time and time again in our crude oil futures daytrading room (see previous articles) is that our EPIC Oil Algorithm model and day traders can pin-point the buy sell signals for the reversal for intra-day trend to capture a reversal in trade.
The focus of this post is to teach you how to find the intra-day bottom when daytrading crude oil. Step by step the lead trader explains what signals to watch for to simplify the process and ensure your winning strategy.
It is important to learn how to catch the bottom of sell-offs to increase your ROI on trades and capture the next move. You may have to enter a number of trades with tight stops to get a position that is set for the move, but it is worth the time if you learn how.
Video Date and Description: October 17, 2018 10:25 AM – EIA Petroleum Report Live Trading Session.
Voice broadcast starts at 2:10 minutes on video.
Video Transcript Summary Highlights:
At 2:20 on video FX USOIL WTI trading 70.73 at the beginning of the session, trading on top of support at top of trading box at down side channel support.
The down channel in trade is confirming per the most recent guidance in recent reports and I am expecting that in to end of October and then up in to Christmas.
Resistance points on algorithmic model short side is most probable for winning in down trend (retracement) – areas to short pointed out on charting at 3:05 on video.
Bias was a long intra-day when report was released, but there was a surprise build today.
I usually don’t trade the first 5 mins after the EIA crude inventory numbers are released.
Example of EIA report data as posted on EPIC’s Twitter Feed:
3:40: On the oil algorithm there is a buy trigger signal intra-day at 69.97 at the mid channel support test for a daytrade.
3:50: Symmetry chart has a buy signal at 70.19 at top of oil trading box.
4:08 Trade on monthly chart is still between the 100 MA and 200 MA and I expect a break to upside or downside early November and my bias is to upside.
4:14 On the weekly wedge chart 70.00 watch very close at top of trading box, end of October time-cycle peak to bottom of wedge on chart 68.42 – that is possible.
4:45 On the daily oil chart trade intra-day is right at the pivot. 50 MA is just under price and to the upside the price intra-day was rejected at the pivot.
Don’t miss the last report on oil trade guidance I provided that guides on signals from now in to early 2019 on all charting.
5:10 Charting trend lines reviewed with time cycle peak early December in 76.00 region.
7:20 on video #EIA report comes out.
7:27 the sell-off on oil is apparent in trade with stops in oil getting taken out.
I start reviewing oil charting at this point on video for various supports to possibly take a position long.
8:50 6.5 million barrel build in crude oil inventories is discussed. 69.50 possible low in oil trade is discussed here.
9:40 Trading 73.00. Any long positions be sure to keep your position with tight stops until down to the 69.50 support range.
Top of trading box on the weekly wedge support at 69.99 is considered.
11:15 Watching chart indicators; MACD, Squeeze Momentum and Stochastic RSI on 1 minute time frame here as price is getting in to the first signal for a possible buy zone daytrade at support.
11:40 I explain that I am looking for a short cover rally for the oil daytrade and then shorting the resistance. As shorts cover price goes up, this occurs when the sell-off on the day comes to an end as oil shorts cover positions.
11:50 I explain that trade is down 3% on the day and that this is typically the area of the short covering and reversal intra-day.
12:40 As price bounces I start to look toward the upside 20 MA resistance on the 1 minute chart.
13:35 I provide guidance that we are possibly looking at 69.00 area and even 68.46 on the wedge chart.
14:50 My daytrade plan for support area and resistance areas and the intra day time cycle confirmation of up or down channel for trade is reviewed on the oil algorithm charting.
17:10 Watching the possible buy zone and 1 min chart for squeeze momentum to turn.
20:20 We are watching the pressure in oil trade in to the bottom of the trading box on the 1 minute chart and considering more stops to get ta’ken out if trade goes below the support on the trade box.
22:20 15 minute candle expires (important point of time to watch trade closely). The bottom of the trading box then is lost.
23:50 I discuss the problem created with governments manipulate price in markets (such as Trump with oil) and what will likely happen with the price of oil when the anomaly will cause a sever snap back trade in oil (also referenced earlier in video). Essentially the structure of the natural trading range of a financial instrument is manipulated.
26:00 oil starts to trade up and I’m watching for the 20 MA upside resistance test.
27:00 I explain that many traders would have taken the buy signal at the mid channel line on the chart and that I likely should have.
28:10 After 20 MA resistance has occurred and price is on the way back down to the next support and I explain where that is and that it is my possible buy area on chart.
29:25 The buy side for oil comes in and I explain that I’ve now missed two buy triggers.
42:00 I am long crude oil futures at 69.91.
44:19 I explain the 5 min candles and a place to trim the position at top of the trading box and alerting that I have trimmed my long position at 70.01 and advise that the 50 MA on the 1 min is coming. Ten minute candle expiry on watch.
45.40 I alert that there is resistance heavy intra day 70.28 range.
46.55 I close the remainder of the daytrade and look for another entry.
Below is the screen shot of my trade alert for the day trade in crude oil on the long side and my closing the position. This reflects what it looks like when you try and catch the reversal on intra-day trading.
Daytrading Crude Oil – Screen Shot of Oil Trade Alerts Feed with signals for long oil trade and closing trade.
There is more to the video, with various discussion on daytrading crude oil with what signals to watch for and there is another trade on the video also.
See video for more on related discussions.
Below is the guidance in given to the oil trading room with charts at the start of futures trading later that day.
Price targets for 900 AM Oct 18 price cycle completion intraday crude oil trade.
Daytrading Crude Oil – Price targets for 900 AM Oct 18 price cycle completion intraday crude oil trade. #daytrading #crude #oil
Buy sell trade signals at each highlighted trendline (yellow) on chart.
Daytrading Crude Oil – Buy sell trade signals at each highlighted trendline (yellow) on chart #crude #oil #daytrading
Signals for end of week price targets. Upper target bias – lead trader.
Daytrading Crude Oil – Signals for end of week price targets. Upper target bias – lead trader. #Crude #Oil #Daytrading
What is a ‘Trade Signal’:
A trade signal is a trigger for action, either to buy or sell a security or other asset, generated by analysis. That analysis can be human generated using technical indicators, or it can be generated using mathematical algorithms based on market action, possibly in combination with other market factors such as economic indicators. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade-signal.asp
Other Crude Oil Trading Reports & Videos:
Learning to Trade Oil Links on our Site and/or YouTube.
Here we unlock historical member reports at intervals after time cycles have expired for traders that are learning to trade oil. When you clock on link scroll down at landing page on blog section you will be transferred to so that you can get to reports that are unlocked over time: https://compoundtrading.com/category/epic-the-oil-algo-chart-report/
Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Wednesday October 17, 2018.
In this premarket trading edition: EIA, Oil, $WTI, Earnings, Market Guidance in Trading Plan Section, $NFLX, $TSLA, $SQ, $ROKU, $SHOP, $FEYE, $VIX, $SPY, $BTC and more.
Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading Group.
Notices:
Notes in red text in this report are more recently important.
Scheduled Events:
Oct 17 – Lead trader booked for main trading room for market open 9:30 AM, 10;30 EIA, 12:00 PM mid day review and futures trading this evening 6:00 PM (as available and as market demands).
Main live trading room – 24 hours a day (regular sessions and futures, with 1 hour breaks every 10 hours for server reboots) live recorded trading with Lead Trader. Exceptions include; Trade Coaching Boot Camps, Special Trading Webinars and when Lead Trader is not available.
What’s New / Work in Progress:
New pricing published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
Trading Profit and Loss Published for Q1 and Q2 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
Trading Boot Camp Event videos become available on Compound Trading website.
Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
1 day Bootcamps in November for each of the seven trading models and swing and daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
3 day Trading Bootcamp November 2018 (online or in person)
Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members.
Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members.
Machine Trade Coding Team Mandates: In current development and roll-out has commenced (1) Intelligent Assisted #IA Trading Platform (Code Algorithm Models), (2) Operate 24 Hour Crypto Trading Desk, (3) Alert Trade Set-ups to Member Alert Feeds (for all models) and (4) Machine Learning.
Premarket Report: On lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
Watching NFLX, SQ, ROKU, SHOP, FEYE very close right now and swinging them all. TSLA trade yesterday went great, still holding 25% on the swing side. Today is all about OIL with EIA.
PSTG has an upgrade I’m watching also.
I am leaning toward equity markets possibly holding up in to end of Oct early Nov, Gold Silver Crypto likely pressure in to that time frame, Oil likely pressure in to that time frame and VIX also. And then end of Oct early Nov that should switch.
This is a leaning bias – a general outlook. However, I do see significant risk that could trigger volatility at any time here. But generally equity markets should hold to that late Oct early Nov with VIX GOLD SILVER OIL under pressure and then the opposite should turn toward mid Dec time cycle peak. See the most recent oil trading strategies video.
I know I’ve been promising the remaining model reports for some time, last night we ran the machine trading tests on EPIC and it is working so I can leave the staff to that and now start getting the reporting out. The software development part of our biz I have to admit has been a challenge to our time.
It’s difficult to explain in short how complicated software development is with machine trading launch. But we’re learning to manage it. We’re in it to win it – we won’t give up and we’re making serious progress, that’s the bottom line.
Curt
Notes per recent remain.
Looking for possible short term sell off in oil with a spike in VIX, Gold, Silver and then markets should levitate for short term bringing VIX Gold Silver Crypto soft and then reversal again and again and rinse and repeat to mid December 2018 minimum.
Notes per recent…. this remains.
Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It’s big, watch.
Further to that public Twitter post, over next two quarters I expect the equity markets to continue under serious pressure in to rates, after a technical retracement oil to skyrocket unless Trump can get a handle on the price somehow (trying with Saudi’s now), Dollar likely to spike hard for some time then fall off a cliff, volatility to increase, Gold and Silver get up and going soon and Crypto to fly. That’s my bias, thesis, trading plan in to next two quarters. Timing will be key. All of our reporting will reflect this near term and will also focus on key swing trading set-ups within themes.
Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It's big, watch.
TESLA on watch in lower area of recent range, likely take a short term swing trade in TSLA today – long.
Gold, Silver and others I have now and I’m doing final edits. To be distributed over next day or two. Letting the set-ups firm up and start trading them again possibly as of Sunday night futures.
Likely start trading Bitcoin XBTUSD and VIX in to next week now also in to mid Dec time cycle.
SPY got a bump in premarket with jobs numbers, as with others above likely trading that aggressive in to time cycle peak mid Dec also come next week.
Oil in a small pull back but expect bullish trend to continue next week.
Market Observation:
Markets as of 7:18 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 95.09, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 71.48, Gold $GLD trading 1226.09, Silver $SLV trading 14.67, $SPY 280.02 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 6431.00 and $VIX trading 17.9.
Trade Set-up Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Trade Alerts, Open and Closed Trades:
Please refer to the date at top left of each chart (charts are often carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded as decision to decision process – when the trade set-up fails cut your position fast. Leg in to the winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit the losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide the framework for your trade (the chart structure enables the trader to set stops where a trade is a failed trade and leg in to winners and trim winners per the chart). The purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of the trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy that should be harnessed in your rules based process.
TESLA (TSLA) daytrade with swing trade possible here to higher, we got some of that move at open. $TSLA #trading
NETFLIX (NFLX) up premarket on earnings, key resistance points to watch if trading this move $NFLX #swingtrading #earnings #upgrades
NETFLIX (NFLX) up premarket on earnings, key resistance points to watch if trading this move $NFLX #swingtrading #earnings #upgrades
SQUARE (SQ) blowing through resistance points in move, over 81.40 targets 83.40 85.40. $SQ #swingtrade #tradealerts
SQUARE (SQ) blowing through resistance points in move, over 81.40 targets 83.40 85.40. $SQ #swingtrade #tradealerts
FIREEYE (FEYE) long bounce working toward upper price targets in to earnings, watch resistance points for trims #swingtrade $FEYE
FIREEYE (FEYE) long bounce working toward upper price targets in to earnings, watch resistance points for trims #swingtrade $FEYE
SHOPIFY (SHOP) bounced at top of trading box, resistance 154.00 earnings 8 days, over 156 long targets 166 then 177 $SHOP #swingtrading #earnings
SHOPIFY (SHOP) bounced at top of trading box, resistance 154.00 earnings 8 days, over 156 long targets 166 then 177 $SHOP #swingtrading #earnings
That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT
That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT
Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart Reviewed at 950 mins on video.
Crude Oil Daily Chart, MACD crossed down with trade testing mid pivot Oct 15 1244 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Crude Oil Daily Chart, MACD crossed down with trade testing mid pivot Oct 15 1244 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
TESLA (TSLA) At trading box range support EOD Friday, in a bounce it targets 280.34 Nov 20, 2018 $TSLA #swingtrading
TESLA (TSLA) At trading box range support EOD Friday, in a bounce it targets 280.34 Nov 20, 2018 $TSLA #swingtrading
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) MACD turned down but over 200 MA and channel support. On watch for adds to trade. $ARWR #swingtrading #tradealerts
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) MACD turned down but over 200 MA and channel support. On watch for adds to trade. $ARWR #swingtrading #tradealerts
Working the daytrade edges on SP500 $SPY #daytrading #tradealerts
Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #oil #trading #algorithm
Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL$WTI$CL_F$USO#oil#trading#algorithmpic.twitter.com/qa0HueviTl
Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:
De-Dollarisation continues. #China has cut US Treasury Holdings for a third straight month. Beijing reduced ownership by another $6bn to lowest level in >1yr.
De-Dollarisation continues. #China has cut US Treasury Holdings for a third straight month. Beijing reduced ownership by another $6bn to lowest level in >1yr. pic.twitter.com/FI7RmNTJcu
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channeland at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
Study:
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Tuesday October 16, 2018.
In this premarket trading edition: Saudi, Time Cycles, Volatility, Oil, TGOD:OTC, $FLKS, $NDRA, $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $BTC and more.
Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading Group.
Notices:
Notes in red text in this report are more recently important.
Scheduled Events:
Oct 16 – Lead trader booked for main trading room for market open 9:30 AM, 12:00 PM mid day review and futures trading this evening 6:00 PM (as available and as market demands).
Main live trading room – 24 hours a day (regular sessions and futures, with 1 hour breaks every 10 hours for server reboots) live recorded trading with Lead Trader. Exceptions include; Trade Coaching Boot Camps, Special Trading Webinars and when Lead Trader is not available.
What’s New / Work in Progress:
New pricing published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
Trading Profit and Loss Published for Q1 and Q2 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
Trading Boot Camp Event videos become available on Compound Trading website.
Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
1 day Bootcamps in November for each of the seven trading models and swing and daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
3 day Trading Bootcamp November 2018 (online or in person)
Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members.
Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members.
Machine Trade Coding Team Mandates: In current development and roll-out has commenced (1) Intelligent Assisted #IA Trading Platform (Code Algorithm Models), (2) Operate 24 Hour Crypto Trading Desk, (3) Alert Trade Set-ups to Member Alert Feeds (for all models) and (4) Machine Learning.
Premarket Report: On lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
Looking for possible short term sell off in oil with a spike in VIX, Gold, Silver and then markets should levitate for short term bringing VIX Gold Silver Crypto soft and then reversal again and again and rinse and repeat to mid December 2018 minimum.
Notes per recent…. this remains.
Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It’s big, watch.
Further to that public Twitter post, over next two quarters I expect the equity markets to continue under serious pressure in to rates, after a technical retracement oil to skyrocket unless Trump can get a handle on the price somehow (trying with Saudi’s now), Dollar likely to spike hard for some time then fall off a cliff, volatility to increase, Gold and Silver get up and going soon and Crypto to fly. That’s my bias, thesis, trading plan in to next two quarters. Timing will be key. All of our reporting will reflect this near term and will also focus on key swing trading set-ups within themes.
Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It's big, watch.
TESLA on watch in lower area of recent range, likely take a short term swing trade in TSLA today – long.
Gold, Silver and others I have now and I’m doing final edits. To be distributed over next day or two. Letting the set-ups firm up and start trading them again possibly as of Sunday night futures.
Likely start trading Bitcoin XBTUSD and VIX in to next week now also in to mid Dec time cycle.
SPY got a bump in premarket with jobs numbers, as with others above likely trading that aggressive in to time cycle peak mid Dec also come next week.
Oil in a small pull back but expect bullish trend to continue next week.
Market Observation:
Markets as of 7:18 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 95.04, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 71.39, Gold $GLD trading 1231.99, Silver $SLV trading 14.82, $SPY 275.88 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 6433.00 and $VIX trading 19.6.
Momentum Stocks / Gaps to Watch: $FLKS $NDRA $AGRX $SEND
Green Organic Dutchman’s stock (TGOD OTC) surges after receipt of medical cannabis sales license $TGOD.CA #premarket https://www.marketwatch.com/story/green-organic-dutchmans-stock-surges-after-receipt-of-medical-cannabis-sales-license-2018-10-16?mod=BreakingNewsSecondary
Trade Set-up Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Trade Alerts, Open and Closed Trades:
Please refer to the date at top left of each chart (charts are often carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded as decision to decision process – when the trade set-up fails cut your position fast. Leg in to the winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit the losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide the framework for your trade (the chart structure enables the trader to set stops where a trade is a failed trade and leg in to winners and trim winners per the chart). The purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of the trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy that should be harnessed in your rules based process.
Green Organic Dutchman’s stock (TGOD OTC) surges after receipt of medical cannabis sales license $TGOD.CA #premarkethttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/green-organic-dutchmans-stock-surges-after-receipt-of-medical-cannabis-sales-license-2018-10-16?mod=BreakingNewsSecondary
Green Organic Dutchman’s stock (TGOD OTC) surges after receipt of medical cannabis sales license $TGOD.CA #premarket
That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT
That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT
Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart Reviewed at 950 mins on video.
Crude Oil Daily Chart, MACD crossed down with trade testing mid pivot Oct 15 1244 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Crude Oil Daily Chart, MACD crossed down with trade testing mid pivot Oct 15 1244 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
TESLA (TSLA) At trading box range support EOD Friday, in a bounce it targets 280.34 Nov 20, 2018 $TSLA #swingtrading
TESLA (TSLA) At trading box range support EOD Friday, in a bounce it targets 280.34 Nov 20, 2018 $TSLA #swingtrading
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) MACD turned down but over 200 MA and channel support. On watch for adds to trade. $ARWR #swingtrading #tradealerts
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) MACD turned down but over 200 MA and channel support. On watch for adds to trade. $ARWR #swingtrading #tradealerts
Working the daytrade edges on SP500 $SPY #daytrading #tradealerts
Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #oil #trading #algorithm
Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL$WTI$CL_F$USO#oil#trading#algorithmpic.twitter.com/qa0HueviTl
Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:
A record 85% of Fund Managers surveyed by BofAML think the global economy is in late cycle, 11ppts above prior highs in Dec’07.
A record 85% of Fund Managers surveyed by BofAML think the global economy is in late cycle, 11ppts above prior highs in Dec'07. pic.twitter.com/u1XHxpstl1
Fund Managers most bearish on global growth since 2008, BofAML survey says. BUT no rotation from equities to bonds until US 10y yields at 3.7%. Cash levels unchanged at high 5.1%. (avg = 4.5% past 10 years).
Fund Managers most bearish on global growth since 2008, BofAML survey says. BUT no rotation from equities to bonds until US 10y yields at 3.7%. Cash levels unchanged at high 5.1%. (avg = 4.5% past 10 years). pic.twitter.com/OEw9TbIScq
U.S. business inventories rise sharply again in August
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channeland at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
Study:
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
Crude Oil Trading Strategy from our Crystal Ball for Next Move in Oil Trade Explained in Detail on This Video From Oil Trading Room Today.
We have never seen all the charting line up with this kind of symmetry in time-cycles, this is a report not to miss for oil traders! By far the most important trade set-up guidance report we have published in months.
Main Points of Strategy Included in this Video Post:
How to Trade Crude Oil move expected between now and December 2018.
Oil Trading Signals on various time-frames on variety of crude oil charts.
Time cycles to watch and Trump Saudi Arabia news flow warnings for your Oil Trade Strategy.
Oil Buy-Sell Signals are discussed on various time-frames and oil charts.
Recent Oil Trade Alerts are reviewed.
Oil Trading Room live video and post below for summary of transcript.
Detailed technical analysis for the next move in crude oil trade that is expected between now and December 2018 and even in to 2019. Many charts are reviewed with various time-lines, time-cycles, support and resistance points for buy / sell triggers to watch on charting and more.
Don’t miss this next big move!
Video Date and Description: October 15, 2018 12:06 PM Oil Trading Strategies Video.
Voice broadcast starts at 3:40 minutes on video.
Video Transcript Summary Highlights:
Oil trade today is affected by some President Trump and Saudi Arabia news flow.
The trade last night in Sunday night futures open caught me off-guard but we did get a piece of it and then in Monday premarket there was more news flow and our traders got the short side trade on Trump Saudi news flow but I missed it (I was busy in premarket).
Thanks to the members in the trading room that alerted that short! You guys nailed it!
Excerpt from Oil Trade Chat Log from in Trading Room Today:
OILK October 15, 2018 07:06:49 AM looks like sell day in oil trump saudi kiss and make up in play curt
GLENN October 15, 2018 07:07:15 AM yes
OILK October 15, 2018 07:18:46 AM nice short here in oil
OILK October 15, 2018 07:18:54 AM could take floor out here
Screen Shot of Oil Trade Alerts from our Private Member Twitter Feed:
That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT.
EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Review of Futures Trade at 5:40 minutes on video.
Started positions at 72.10 (I was late it caught me off guard, I entered over pivot on the algorithm model) trimmed at 72.50 on the EPIC Oil Algorithm Model resistance point on chart, added above 72.60 and closed 72.55 took a 5 cent shave on last trade but the trade over-all was a great way to start the week.
Daytrade in Oil the Team got on Trade Alert by Member in Trading Room at 6:30 minutes on video.
The team got the short side trade on the Saudi Trump news flow. Perfect timing.
Divergent Chart Noise Technical Analysis at 7:15 minutes on video.
The divergent area of oil trade on the algorithm charting model is reviewed for intra-day from Friday and Sunday night futures trade. The down trending channel is pointed out as support and trade under that channel support is noise on the chart.
BEWARE of Trump Designate to Saudi Arabia Meeting at 7:25 on video
When the Trump designate to President Trump comes out of the Saudi Arabia meeting today you can expect oil to sell-off if the news flow is positive and happy.
Trump Sends Pompeo to Saudi Arabia TicToc October 15th, 2018, 12:32 PM GMT-0400 Trump is sending Pompeo to meet with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman who denied knowing about Khashoggi’s disappearance #tictocnews (Source: Bloomberg)
Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart Reviewed at 9:50 on video.
Over 76.00 area of chart and that time-cycle would be very bullish on the chart. My bias is for the next 6 months is really bullish – we will see.
Early December peak in time-cycle on the chart for your trading strategy is reviewed on the video. This timing concurs with the timing for the volatility time cycle peak on the VIX charting for December.
The range we are in is reviewed on the weekly trend-line chart.
Approximately 69.00 – 69.50 area on this specific chart is an implied support area of the chart considering higher lows in this range of trade.
The Algorithmic Model Chart for Symmetry in Oil Trade is Reviewed at 12:35 on video.
This is one of my favorite charts for guidance in oil trading strategies.
Two options are reviewed in the symmetry on the chart. The downside option is 67.50 support area and upside 79.00 resistance at the time cycle peak on this chart (end of November 2018). Other support and resistance areas are also reviewed. A spike through the structured time cycle on chart reviewed could see a huge move in the price of oil – 86.00 – 93.00 is possible end of March 2019.
The Algorithmic Model Chart for Symmetry in Oil Trade is Reviewed at 12:35 on video.
The Oil Daily Chart is Reviewed at 12:50 on video.
One of one my main reasons for being short term bearish oil is the MACD on the daily chart and trade is under the pivot on the chart but structure is in play long trading over mid pivot on structure of chart.
69.41 first week of November is possible as down side support at Fibonacci trend-line that is up-trending. The top of trading box is 69.30 area that could hit 69.30 ish on chart.
Other areas of support are discussed on the chart that coincides with the 200 MA on the chart also.
If I had to lay my bet down right now pressure in to mid 68s in oil would be my bias for strategy and then up from there – reasons are given in video.
Weekly Wedge Chart is Reviewed 20:00 minutes on the video.
End of October suggests support 68.30 end of October 2018, so a little earlier considering time frame on this chart.
Short side bias warning in that time cycle area of the chart is discussed on the video.
Monthly Oil Chart is Reviewed at 22:00 minutes on the video.
Pivot is at 69.50 range on the monthly chart and oil has been trading between the 100 MA and 200 MA as I guided to our members when we first entered this area and now I’m suggesting that end of October in to early November we will break up or down out of this range we have been in for months (per guidance). My bias is to the upside break in oil trade with 86.00 – 92.00 in to April of next year.
Time Cycles are Reviewed starting at 22:30 on the video (on various charts).
Dec 10, 2018 area of charting is the big time-cycle peak. All the charts are concurring to the end of November early December time cycle frames for a peak in time cycle for your trading strategy and a key area to watch. Trajectory on mid pivot on daily chart is 74.00 range for mid price pivot with near 80.00 as highs. On the weekly wedge 79.00 area possible in to same time frame. The trend-line weekly high for that timing in oil trade is similar also. Last week of November and early December is a very important area.
Crystal Ball Forward Guidance for Oil Trade discussed on video at 25:45 mins.
Downside in to end of October and then we’re going up in to mid December 2018 unless Trump news flow knocks trade under 63 – 64 on the trading box reviewed on the video. December 2018 upside 83.00 – 86.00 price target and 90s price targets are possible for oil trade in to March of 2019.
Inflection Point on Charting Reviewed on video at 27:50 mins.
On EPIC Crude Oil Trade Algorithm the support area of the model is reviewed “trading basket” in area of trading quad reviewed with inflection possible there – very likely scenario for my trading strategy. This is it.
Watch for happiness after the Saudi Arabia meeting and then be ready to go upside from there.
Thanks
Curt
Any questions let me know!
Other Crude Oil Trading Reports & Videos:
Learning to Trade Oil Links on our Site and/or YouTube.
Here we unlock historical member reports at intervals after time cycles have expired for traders that are learning to trade oil. When you clock on link scroll down at landing page on blog section you will be transferred to so that you can get to reports that are unlocked over time: https://compoundtrading.com/category/epic-the-oil-algo-chart-report/
Welcome to the oil trading algorithm report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algorithm and I am one of the seven primary Algorithmic Chart Models in development at Compound Trading Group (there are over one hundred in total in development at various stages in various markets).
NOTICES:
New members to our oil algorithm charting models, oil trade alerts and oil trading room are encouraged to on-board in a way that equips you as an oil trader for consistent profit.
Invaluable are the crude oil trade alerts (available with or without the trading room / weekly report bundle) and the private member crude oil trading chat room on Discord (included in the bundle). The live alerts are important if you are not at your trading screens 24 hours a day and the chat room allows for interactive lead trader oil trade set-ups as each oil trade approaches.
Reviewing important points of reference and engaging the subscription resources will increase your probability of success considerably. This report also includes links to some recent example “how-to” videos.
Oil Trade Coaching – We strongly suggest users of this algorithmic crude oil trading strategy opt for some level of private one-on-one coaching with our lead trader. Our lead trader is currently maintaining a crude oil trading alert win-rate of over 90% (as of Sept 2, 2018 – time-stamped, live alert, recorded).
On our website one-on-one online coaching packages are made available (coaching via Skype) or you can request a custom package reflecting the time you wish to invest in learning. To request a custom package suited to your needs email [email protected] or click here for standard private trade coaching packages. Other options for coaching include online webinars, trade coaching bootcamps and private on location (in person) coaching sessions.
Oil Trading Room – How to Use the Oil Algorithm
Oil Trading Room – How to Trade Intra-day with my Algorithmic Oil Charting
Oil Trading Alerts. Live Lead Trader Video Trading w EPIC Oil Algorithm
Recent articles from our blog about how to trade crude oil with our oil trading algorithm:
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is now also in the coding phase for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process, about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed and/or this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an oil algorithm model in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency robot type algorithm – I am presented on (and used on) a traditional trading chart as one would normally use as a probability indicator.
The goal is to provide oil traders with a signals edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil – first with the reporting format as below, then with machine trading functions and an integrated intelligent assisted traders platform that will provide the user with various settings of automation and personal trade execution.
In the weekly report below you will find simplified levels represented on conventional and algorithmic charting for intra-day (day-trading crude oil), swing trading and investing.
This work (and associated trading) should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.oil related financial instruments.
Forward questions to [email protected], private message our lead trader on Twitter or in the private Discord oil trading room.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE SIGNAL (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED, ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
Oil Algorithm Observations:
Below is a link for the live algorithmic chart of EPIC the Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (Generation 1, Version 5 including black box modeling). The charting is a real-time trading chart represented on FX $USOIL $WTI published October 15, 2018.
Click on share button (bottom right beside flag) and when that screen opens click on “make it mine” to view real-time, make edits etc:
The first most predictable trade are the resistance and support cluster areas formed by long term chart trend lines (see charts that have trend-lines represented in red as made available below near bottom of this report – conventional charting trend-lines).
The second most predictable trade (wide trading range primary resistance and support that become predictable buy and sell triggers). Current algorithmic model wide trading range resistance (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 72.52 in the current trading range. Current algorithmic model wide trading range support (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 68.93 in the current trading range – these areas are general range support and resistance areas (our algorithm uses a .15 – .20 cent buffer on either side for these trades – if that is exceeded then trading price is likely to use the line as a pivot until a directional trending trade is established).
Trading between the resistance / support horizontal grey lines is extremely profitable risk – reward if one is disciplined to the patience required and follows the trend of trade.
More recently (as of September 2018) our back-testing has shown that the support and resistance areas noted are used in trade as a decision pivot – in other words, the price tends to pivot around these decision points on the chart and coil over a period of time and then spring out of the coil in an upward or downward trend.
The lower trading range is 65.32 – 68.92 and upper trading range 68.93 – 72.54.
Third most predictable trade (support and resistance of uptrend or down trend channels). On the chart an upward trending trade channel is presented and a downward option (channel support and resistance / trading range is represented as diagonal dotted orange lines and purple arrows – as made available, assist in displaying directional trade decision areas).
Fourth most predictable trade (support and resistance of 30 min quadrants). The diagonal lines make up quadrants (in this instance on a 30 min chart) and are represented as orange diagonal lines that make up geometric diamond shapes. These lines also assist in intra-day trade.
Fifth most predictable trade (support and resistance of most applicable Fibonacci) the Fib support and resistance lines are the horizontal lines in various colors with the exception of purple and yellow (see below). These horizontal lines become support and resistance for intra-day trade.
Sixth most predictable trade (support and resistance of historical support and resistance) Natural / historical support and resistance lines shown in purple or yellow – they represent historical support and resistance. The strongest of the historical support and resistance lines are shown in yellow horizontal and are typically accompanied by a yellow arrow marker.
Seventh most predictable trade signal we use are the time and price targets (red circles). When trade is in a significant uptrend or downtrend the targets become very precise and move up the indicator priority list quick.
Tues, Wed and Fri targets are most predictable in extended multi week uptrends or downtrends. In recent time, trade could be described as being in a retrace / moderately range bound.
The Eighth most predictable trade is intra-day. You will notice on some of the charting geometric shapes in green on some of my charting (at times). They are charted live in the trading room and at times the lead trader will highlight these areas intra with white outlines (typically geometric shapes such as diamonds or triangles).
Intra-day Trading Bias
Intra day bias is down side trade as the MACD is turned down on the daily chart and this indicator is usually a leading indicator for oil trade on this time-frame.
Wide Trading Range – Buy and Sell Triggers for Swing Trading Crude Oil:
Swing trading bias / forward guidance as of Oct 15, 2018 12:16 AM EST for the near term (two week swing trade) is bearish.
Trade the ranges noted above between the thick grey lines (grey arrows) for the most predictable swing trades between 58.13 to 61.72, 61.72 to 65.32, 65.32 to 68.92, 68.93 to 72.54, 72.55 to 76.14 and 76.15 to 79.74. This is a highly profitable risk-reward way to trade oil if you can be patient to trigger at only the break of the wide range charting areas and are disciplined to cut a losing trade that does not prove in your anticipated trend.
Or trade the range between the channel diagonal lines at support and resistance in up or down channel (orange dotted diagonals).
Significantly more advanced trading rules will be introduced over the coming weeks with the newer Generation 2 models per below in this report.
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Uptrend channel oil scenario. Oct 15 1219 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Uptrend channel oil scenario. Oct 15 1219 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Downtrend channel oil scenario. Oct 15 1218 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Downtrend channel oil scenario. Oct 15 1218 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
Generation 2 Model Oil Trading Signals.
October 15 – Generation 2 model is currently in back-testing and will be released to members when available. Below are a few versions of late.
Oct 2 – Currently in update, will be released when available.
During a squeeze trade spikes upward through the highlighted area and then rests and works its way through the next area and spikes through the next highlighted area. This does not occur in regular trade. More on this chart in our special reporting for oil trading over the coming days.
Per recent;
7:58 AM update Sept 17:
Crude Oil Day-Trading Chart Signals. 1 minute time frame. Sept 17 723 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OIL #Chart
1 of … Crude Oil Weekly Chart Wedge. Very bullish oil trading signal here, lower trendline held w break to upside. Sept 24 1204 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #oiltradealerts
2 of … Crude Oil Weekly. Over 71.76 suggests 74.20 – 79.00 in to Oct 22. Sept 24 1209 AM
2 of … Crude Oil Weekly. Over 71.76 suggests 74.20 – 79.00 in to Oct 22. Sept 24 1209 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #oiltradealerts
3 of … Crude Oil Weekly. Resistance 71.76, 74.20, 78.17, 79.00, 79.34 ish. Sept 24 1211 AM
3 of … Crude Oil Weekly. Resistance 71.76, 74.20, 78.17, 79.00, 79.34 ish. Sept 24 1211 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #oiltradealerts
4 of 4 … Crude Oil Weekly. If it fails for some reason, it targets 68.58 – 69.21 Oct 22. Sept 24 1215 AM
4 of 4 … Crude Oil Weekly. If it fails for some reason, it targets 68.58 – 69.21 Oct 22. Sept 24 1215 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #oiltradealerts
Daily Oil Charts:
Crude Oil Daily Chart, MACD crossed down with trade testing mid pivot Oct 15 1244 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Crude Oil Daily Chart, MACD crossed down with trade testing mid pivot Oct 15 1244 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Crude Oil Daily basic algorithmic chart model highlighting symmetry scenarios of trade. Oct 14 1249 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart #algorithm #symmetry
Crude Oil Daily basic algorithmic chart model highlighting symmetry scenarios of trade. Oct 14 1249 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart #algorithm #symmetry
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points (currently represented in red below on our conventional charting).
Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
The diagonal trend-lines are marked on chart below:
Crude Oil Weekly chart trend-lines suggest approx 75.71 peak price approx Nov 12 Oct 15 1254 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart #trendlines
Crude Oil Weekly chart trendlines suggest approx 75.71 peak price approx Nov 12 Oct 15 1254 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart #trendlines
Sept 17: Previous remains signal;
Oil Chart (Weekly). Oil trend lines on weekly time-frame. Aug 12 951 PM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OIL
Significant probability oil hits 79.50 ish Dec 3, 2018 ish. But over that area unlikely unless there is a geo political event. Over 79.50 the shorts would get wrecked. Low 50s most probable by 2022. Early Dec 2018 is likely the highs. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OOTT
Oil Chart (Weekly). Oil trend lines on weekly time-frame. Aug 7 605 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OIL
Previous posts for perspective;
Oil has now cleared every trendline resistance provided on conventional charting I’ve posted last year. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OOTT #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT 233 PM Jan 1
Oil has now cleared every trendline resistance provided on conventional charting I’ve posted last year. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OOTT #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT 233 PM Jan 1
Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 201 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Notice when the daily chart is opened, the simple lines extend to current day trade.
Daily chart view. Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 213 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Daily chart view. Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 213 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable.Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Recent Live Crude Oil Trade Alerts (sample signals):
Oct 15 – Recent trade alerts will be updated soon.
Aug 12 2018 – Recent trades are found in this recent report:
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
Swing Trading Signals and Stock Picks In this Issue: FEYE, ROKU, SHOP, ARWR, TSLA, AGN, CRON, SQ.
Email us at [email protected] anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private message Curtis in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.
Notices:
Below is Part A of this special swing trading report covering stocks that we have recently been trading or have been active stocks traded by our members and/or stocks that were recently covered at the Trade Coaching Boot Camp. Basically we are consolidating all the most recent swing trade strategies in to a few reports prior to earnings season kicking in. After this short series of reports we will return to the regular rotational reports and also introduce some themed swing trading reports (we have one for swing trading pot stocks, we are working on a financials report and an energy special report currently).
Swing trading set-ups in this short series of reports over the few weeks will provide charting and trade signals for the following equities; FEYE, ROU, SHOP, ARWR, TSLA, AGN, CRON, SQ, XBIO, FB, DIS, LEVB, NBEV, NIHD, BZUN, BLDP, AMD, OSI, CARA, BABA, EDIT, AAPL, NFLX, MTEM, PYX, XXII, PRQR, BOX, GTHX, SSW, HIIQ, ATHM, ESPR, CALA, APVO, MOMO, GSUM, CLDR, FIT among others. If you have any swing trading charting requests send them to us on email. The first of the trading set-ups in this series are included below.
Until mid July 2018 we distributed one swing trading report (1 of 5 in rotation) with a mandate being one report per week on average cycling the five reports that include over one hundred equities every five weeks (approximately).
Commencing July 2018 we switched up our swing trading service to also include special reports for earnings season, special trade set-ups, and swing trade alerts direct to your email inbox. Per above, soon we will also be producing themed reports.
When managing your trades with the weekly reports keep in mind that you will have to invest an hour or two a week to check the indicators mentioned for buy and sell triggers. I was asked recently why we do not usually (although we do sometimes) include precise entry and exit points. The reason is simple, they don’t work – those services have terrible results.
Swing trading success, even with a service, does require “some” maintenance on the part of the user, although the new live alert service will take much of that burden off the user as we know many of our users have busy lives. It is the indicators lining up that signal a trade long entry or an exit. In our case we rely heavily on the natural trading structure of the financial instrument; including the MACD on daily or weekly, Stochastic RSI, Moving Averages, trading boxes, quadrants, Fibonacci support and resistance, trend lines, trajectory / trend of trade, time-cycles and more.
Indicators we base trade entry and exits on are at times listed with each trade posted so any user that does even moderate trade management will know when the indicator(s) have turn with or against the trade (here again it is wise to have at least a basic understanding of trading structures because you need to be able to respond to your own trading rules based process).
It is critical that you attend to the maintenance of your signals at least once a week if not twice and set stops and preferably alarms so that intra-week you can enter / exit or add / trim as required.
If you need help with rules based swing trading technical analysis, a specific trading plan (entries, exits, adds or trims) or with a simple understanding of proper structured charting and/or trading structured set-ups you can book some trade coaching time and we will assist you with your trade planning as needed. You may find after a few hours of trade coaching that this is all you need to become a proficient profit side trader.
We can schedule private coaching online, you can attend a trading boot-camp (online or in person) or order the downloadable recordings of a recent trading boot-camp or master class series (each about 20 hours of training per event). For any of those options email us for details.
Below is a primer if you know none or very little about proper chart structures:
“I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 – 6:00 min”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
Intra-week you can DM myself on Twitter (@curtmelonopoly), visit me on Discord (http://discord.gg/2HRTk6n) and private message me or email me ([email protected]) with specific questions regarding trades you are considering. You can also visit the main trading during the mid-day review and ask questions by text in the chat area of the room.
IF WE DON’T GET BACK TO YOU RIGHT AWAY it is usually because we are pressured with reporting deadlines or are in a trading session.
Also, as live charts are made available below, click on link and open viewer. Then to use chart yourself click on share button at bottom right (near thumbs up) and then click “make it mine”.
Newer updates are in red type for ease of review.
Recent Compound Trading Videos and/ or Blog Posts for Swing Traders / Charting Set-Ups:
See You Tube for other recent video posts. Listed from most recent. For newer members, if you need a password for a locked historical post please email us your request.
FIREEYE (FEYE) Trading 16.68, on 200 MA support, mid quad key support 16.22, with MACD turned down – key bearish signal. #swingtrade $FEYE
Key resistance trade signal is at 19.24 on this chart with key support trade signal for FEYE at 13.05. The MACD turned down on the daily chart is a bearish signal but price is above 200 MA and above primary support for the range (mid quad horizontal Fibonacci line) at 16.18.
Under 16.18 is a short to a possible price target of 13.05 Dec 3, 2018.
Above 16.18 is a long to a possible price target of 19.32 Dec 3, 2018.
Indecisive trade will see 16.18 range Dec 3, 2018.
No current trader bias for the FEYE trade set-up – indecisive, but recent trajectory does suggest 19.32 Dec 3, 2018 as long as price holds 16.18 and 200 MA.
FIREEYE (FEYE) Trading 16.68, on 200 MA support, mid quad key support 16.22, with MACD turned down – key bearish signal. #swingtrade $FEYE
ROKU (ROKU) trading 60.41, MACD turned down bearish signal, above 200 MA with support 58.20, price targets in report $ROKU #swingtrading
The MACD turned down is a considerably bearish signal, the 200 MA on ROKU chart is at 45.69 so it could easily see some considerable downside. However, the algorithmic channel support (first possible, at yellow uptrending line) is at 53.82 and trade recently bounced well off that area. I will be watching the channel support area for a possible trade long pending the general market sentiment near-term.
Near term support is also at 58.20 (mid quad Fibonacci support) and range support (trading box) is at 53.50. Range resistance on ROKU chart is at 63.16.
If downward pressure ensues then 48.49 Oct 30, 2018 time cycle is probable and even 38.40 is possible.
If market sentiment turns up and trade in ROKU turns up then 68.11 is most likely Oct 30 and 78.00 possible but far from probable.
Indecisive trade scenario sees 58.00 range Oct 30, 2018.
No current trade bias, however, as with others (considering the market sell-off last week) I will be watching general market sentiment going forward for a trade either way in ROKU.
ROKU (ROKU) trading 60.41, MACD turned down bearish signal, above 200 MA with support 58.20, price targets in report $ROKU #swingtrading
SHOPIFY (SHOP) Trading under 200 MA under main range pivot support is bearish with channel support test near $SHOP #swingtrading
With earnings in 11 days I am watching SHOPIFY very close here to see how trade handles the prospective algorithmic charting channel support area on chart (yellow up-trending line on chart below). If that line fails 116.22 is probable price target for Jan 10, 2019 swing trade with 92.01 possible and 67.59 price target not likely but there.
In a bullish scenario (a turn above the 200 MA with MACD turned back up on daily chart) targets 166.27 probable and 190.89 in a break-out scenario (not likely but definitely possible if the market sentiment turns risk off again).
The trade signal short is the channel support and the trade signal long is MACD down with 200 MA upside breached.
The future looks bright for Shopify. As e-commerce continues to capture an even greater percentage of retail, the company is positioned to reap even further gains over the years and decades to come. Investors should take a long-term view, however, as the stock price will continue to be volatile. Brace yourself for the wild ride to continue when the company reports on Oct. 25.
SHOPIFY (SHOP) Trading under 200 MA under main range pivt support is bearish with channel support test near $SHOP #swingtrading
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) MACD turned down but over 200 MA and channel support. On watch for adds to trade. $ARWR #swingtrading #tradealerts
I am currently in a swing trade position (starter size) and will look to add to the swing long at the 200 MA support if trade hits that mark this week (I was hoping it was going to hit end of week last week on late Friday afternoon trade but it didn’t quite get there).
If trade breaks the 200 MA to the downside then 8.90 price target is in play for November 28, 2018 time cycle completion (which is also at the algorithm chart model prospective channel support – yellow line on chart).
The most important support trade signal in near term trade (this week) is that trade closed Friday right near the trading box support range in the 12.65 range. If ARWR sees a bounce then 16.25 is in play for Nov 28th.
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) MACD turned down but over 200 MA and channel support. On watch for adds to trade. $ARWR #swingtrading #tradealerts
TESLA (TSLA) At trading box range support EOD Friday, in a bounce it targets 280.34 Nov 20, 2018 $TSLA #swingtrading
MACD on daily chart is turned down, but TESLA stock trades somewhat eradic in normal course of trade. The range is the most important consideration and I have TESLA on high watch for a significant bounce here. The trading range is fairly consistent and as long as maret sentiment doesn’t completely plummet near-term I’ll likely take a trade for a bounce to upper price target at 279.56 Nov 20, 2018, trading at close Friday 258.78.
As Tesla continues to ramp up production in the fourth quarter, “we can expect the brand to continue to gain ground on the luxury leaders”
Tesla (TSLA) sales in the U.S. are gaining on BMW and other luxury car makers $TSLAhttps://on.mktw.net/2EhlMge.
TESLA (TSLA) At trading box range support EOD Friday, in a bounce it targets 280.34 Nov 20, 2018 $TSLA #swingtrading
ALLERGAN (AGN) swing trade couldn’t be going any better, add to long at 200 MA or channel support, trim at resistance points $AGN #swingtrading #chart
With earnings in sixteen days and AGN presenting soon (see news article below), trade near 200 MA support – I will consider adding to my position there if it looks to be holding and pending market sentiment, if not I will surely add at algorithmic charting model channel support on the chart as noted below.
ALLERGAN (AGN) swing trade couldn’t be going any better, add to long at 200 MA or channel support, trim at resistance points $AGN #swingtrading #chart
CRONOS (CRON) above 10.25 buy signal for upside price target, below 8.40 short to price target. $CRON
If trade stays in trading box short at resistance in 10.25 range long at 8.40 range for a bounce in trading box. However, it looks like it could turn here. This is a 240 minute chart and not a daily chart for lower time frame trading.
Also of note, the MACD on 240 min chart just turned back up and the Squeeze Momentum indicator flashed green in last 4 hours of trade on Friday.
CRONOS (CRON) above 10.25 buy signal for upside price target, below 8.40 short to price target. $CRON #swingtrading
SQUARE (SQ) above 74.00 targets 78.64 next. Resistance at 76.27 and 82.27 if in upside trade. $SQ #swingtrade #tradealerts
I really like this trade set-up long again. If markets get momentum this could see a decent upside return. Careful with the resistance areas noted and also note that the chart model is “rough” and needs some work, but good enough to provide signals for an upside swing trade here.
Pushing all reporting out Thursday – Sunday as our focus (everything listed on our to-do list as listed on any premarket report).
Will be in live trading room for 11:00 EIA Petroleum report ONLY today (as it applies to live trading room). No premarket / market open or mid-day review.
No premarket report.
Trade alerts per usual.
Trade coaching appointments etc per usual.
Will advise prior to Friday premarket for Friday schedule.
Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Wednesday October 10, 2018.
In this premarket trading edition: #EIA, $WTI, #OIL, #Iran, #Sanctions, #Venezuela, #PetroDollar, Hurrican Mochael, $AKRX, $VIX, $SPY, $BTC, Time Cycles, Volatility, $SNAP, SoftBank, Recent Trades and more.
Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading Group.
Notices:
Notes in red text in this report are more recently important.
Scheduled Events:
Oct 10 – Lead trader booked for main trading room for market open 9:30 AM, EIA Petroleum Inventory Report 10:30 AM, 12:00 PM mid day review and futures trading this evening 6:00 PM (as available and as market demands).
Main live trading room – 24 hours a day (regular sessions and futures, with 1 hour breaks every 10 hours for server reboots) live recorded trading with Lead Trader. Exceptions include; Trade Coaching Boot Camps, Special Trading Webinars and when Lead Trader is not available.
What’s New / Work in Progress:
New pricing published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
Trading Profit and Loss Published for Q1 and Q2 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
Trading Boot Camp Event videos become available on Compound Trading website.
Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
1 day Bootcamps in November for each of the seven trading models and swing and daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
3 day Trading Bootcamp November 2018 (online or in person)
Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members.
Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members.
Machine Trade Coding Team Mandates: In current development and roll-out has commenced (1) Intelligent Assisted #IA Trading Platform (Code Algorithm Models), (2) Operate 24 Hour Crypto Trading Desk, (3) Alert Trade Set-ups to Member Alert Feeds (for all models) and (4) Machine Learning.
Premarket Report: On lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
Last few days fighting off a fever so I’ve been sleeping at night and the crew fighting seasonal flu’s also, anyway, feeling a tad better and yes yes yes reports start flying tonight (starting with Gold Silver etc).
Top of monthly time cycle peak today so watching post EIA at 10:30 for sizeable entries legging in to trends between Oct 10 peak and Nov 11 peak in monthly time cycles. Between today and Tuesday should give us the trend indications to do so.
Don’t get caught in the chop at top of a time-cycle, it can be pivot driven and choppy.
VIX on super high watch here through Tuesday FYI.
Venezuela situation on SUPER HIGH WATCH also. #OOTT #OIL #Sanctions #PetroDollar.
Light report today being this is peak.
If you are a trade coaching client and you are tandem trading with me in private server communications I may be delayed at times over next few days pushing final edits out on these reports (we have to get them out).
Notes per Tuesday remain.
Last night Jen got me the new models, I was bagged and just couldn’t do final look, so the first thing I will do tonight is review and distribute them for GOLD, SILVER and SPY. DXY and VIX won’t be until tomorrow night (Wed) and new SWING Thursday. This weekend we will announce new Trade Coaching Boot Camp dates for in person 3 day session in Dominican Republic, and online 1 day sessions for Oil and other specific instruments (we are doing one day trade coaching for each of the models and swing, daytrading – 9 sessions in total).
Notes per Monday…. this remains.
Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It’s big, watch.
Further to that public Twitter post, over next two quarters I expect the equity markets to continue under serious pressure in to rates, after a technical retracement oil to skyrocket unless Trump can get a handle on the price somehow (trying with Saudi’s now), Dollar likely to spike hard for some time then fall off a cliff, volatility to increase, Gold and Silver get up and going soon and Crypto to fly. That’s my bias, thesis, trading plan in to next two quarters. Timing will be key. All of our reporting will reflect this near term and will also focus on key swing trading set-ups within themes.
Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It's big, watch.
TESLA on watch in lower area of recent range, likely take a short term swing trade in TSLA today – long.
Gold, Silver and others I have now and I’m doing final edits. To be distributed over next day or two. Letting the set-ups firm up and start trading them again possibly as of Sunday night futures.
Likely start trading Bitcoin XBTUSD and VIX in to next week now also in to mid Dec time cycle.
SPY got a bump in premarket with jobs numbers, as with others above likely trading that aggressive in to time cycle peak mid Dec also come next week.
Oil in a small pull back but expect bullish trend to continue next week.
Market Observation:
Markets as of 7:18 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 95.68, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 74.76, Gold $GLD trading 1186.80, Silver $SLV trading 14.33, $SPY 286.75 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 6514.00 and $VIX trading 16.7.
Momentum Stocks / Gaps to Watch:
Akorn’s stock soars after FDA approves ANDA for hypotrichosis of eyelashes treatment. https://on.mktw.net/2C76rfh
Time to watch Venezuela close *A 2ND COALITION ARMADA SPOTTED ADVANCING ON SOUTH AMERICA(!) 40+ VESSEL… https://youtu.be/Bpy27YR24r8 #petrodollar #cryptocurrency #Venezuela
Trade Set-up Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Trade Alerts, Open and Closed Trades:
Please refer to the date at top left of each chart (charts are often carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded as decision to decision process – when the trade set-up fails cut your position fast. Leg in to the winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit the losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide the framework for your trade (the chart structure enables the trader to set stops where a trade is a failed trade and leg in to winners and trim winners per the chart). The purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of the trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy that should be harnessed in your rules based process.
Akorn (AKRX) stock premarket up 7.59% trading 6.95 on FDA approval ANDA for hypotrichosis eyelash treatment $AKRX #premarket #trading
Akorn (AKRX) stock premarket up 7.59% trading 6.95 on FDA approval ANDA for hypotrichosis eyelash treatment $AKRX #premarket #trading
Working the daytrade edges on SP500 $SPY #daytrading #tradealerts
Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #oil #trading #algorithm
Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL$WTI$CL_F$USO#oil#trading#algorithmpic.twitter.com/qa0HueviTl
Crude oil trade alert entry and exit shown on an oil chart.
Crude oil trade alert entry and exit shown on an oil chart.
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) Holding trend support area-ish for long bias set-up in premarket.
ARROWHEAD PHARMA (ARWR) Holding trend support area-ish for long bias set-up in premarket $ARWR #swingtrading
FIREEYE (FEYE) premarket holding up channel structure for long bias, may take first entries in to open.
FIREEYE (FEYE) premarket holding up channel structure for long bias, may take first entries in to open. #swingtrade $FEYE
ROKU (ROKU) in pull back could see 58.52, on bounce looking for 78.01 then 87.75 ON WATCH $ROKU #swingtrading #setups
ROKU (ROKU) in pull back could see 58.52, on bounce looking for 78.01 then 87.75 ON WATCH $ROKU #swingtrading #setups
SP500 (SPY) Under pressure, careful with trajectory inflection lines (red) when trading long $SPY $ES_F $SPXL $SPXS #SPY #SwingTrade #Daytrade
SP500 (SPY) Under pressure, careful with trajectory inflection lines (red) when trading long $SPY $ES_F $SPXL $SPXS #SPY #SwingTrade #Daytrade
SHOPIFY (SHOP) Hit price target from last trade alert, coming off to mid quad 200 MA support, follow trajectory after Oct 9 time cycle $SHOP #swingtrading
SHOPIFY (SHOP) Hit price target from last trade alert, coming off to mid quad 200 MA support, follow trajectory after Oct 9 time cycle $SHOP #swingtrading
APPLE (AAPL) premarket testing highs, leading the charge. $AAPL #premarket #trading
APPLE (AAPL) premarket testing highs, leading the charge. $AAPL #premarket #trading
Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:
Your Wednesday morning Speed Read:
– Snap will bring scripted shows to Snapchat $SNAP – Sears reportedly hired advisors to prep for bankruptcy filing $SHLD – #HurricaneMichael has strengthened into a Category 3 storm
Your Wednesday morning Speed Read:
– Snap will bring scripted shows to Snapchat $SNAP – Sears reportedly hired advisors to prep for bankruptcy filing $SHLD – #HurricaneMichael has strengthened into a Category 3 storm
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channeland at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWT, $DWT, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY), $BTCUSD Bitcoin.
(5) Recent Upgrades:
McDonald’s stock gains after analyst upgrade on ‘unjustifiable’ valuation discount
(6) Recent Downgrades:
Alibaba price target lowered to $220 ahead of earnings at Morgan Stanley $BABA http://dlvr.it/QmtlD2
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
Study:
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
