Crude Oil Archives - Page 8 of 10

Aug 2019

Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

RE: Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

Today we reverted back to the version 3 software and have abandoned the version 4 software.

The architecture for the version 4 software has too much downside risk (it is too unpredictable in varied market action), even with the possibility of ongoing tweaks (updates). There is no guarantee that we would achieve a state of operation that minimizes downside risk to an appropriate level.

As such we will only be running version 3 going forward and discontinuing version 4 development at least until we can somehow find a way of improving our subscription management software.

Version 3 provided low downside risk with about 83% ROI in real-world testing lasting just over a month (longer duration trading will determine the exact return). In the first month of testing with v3 there was only one day with draw down and it was about -0.2%.

Version 3 also provides for low risk even in unpredictable markets because its architecture does not allow for accumulation type trade positions within a range (it does not accumulate or hold positions), which version 4 did. Version 3 hits key support and resistance with appropriate size and trails out quickly. It is a precision trade architecture design. The version 4 architecture is more designed for positioning within a range, with order flow of entities it identifies as dominant. The two versions are considerably different structurally.

Version 3 will lose sometimes, but will lose very small at all times because it is not an accumulation architecture. This was proven out in real world testing. We estimate that on average over a number of days that about 1 in 10 trading days v3 will see a draw down on average equal to or less than its average day gains.

In early testing version 1 software ran at about 20% ROI, version 2 at 40% and version 3 at just over 80%. All approximate and all short term testing lasting less than 60 days. The v4 software may have reached the ROI goal of 160%, but the road to that goal is too volatile.

Here forward version 3 of the crude oil machine trade software will run and follow-up updates will provide additional information about the architecture of the decisions the v3 software makes to trade so successfully so that our clients that trade manually can use some of the rule-set for their own trading.

And lastly, to the questions I have received about future considerations for v4, the answer is no. At this juncture we would rather enjoy the fruits of our labor as it has been a near 3 year development process (an expensive one) and at some point we must settle in with what we have, what we know works, and what provides the lowest down-side risk.

V3 at approximately 80% ROI per year is world class software and world class is better than good enough.

Again, thanks for being a part of the journey.

Any questions email us [email protected].

Curt

Company News:

SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

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Article Topics: crude oil, machine, trading, software, memorandum

Jul 2019

Trading Profit & Loss Report (Trades, Alerts) for July 3 $AMD, $BTC, $XBT_F, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO

Trading Profit Loss Alerts, BITCOIN, Crude Oil, profit loss, Trading, Trading Room Curt Melonopoly

Wed July 3 Trading Profit and Loss Report.

Day Trade and Swing Trading.
Equities, Commodity and Bitcoin Trading.
Personal Trades and Machine Software Trades.
Includes Live Trading Room Raw Video Feed Recording.
Includes Trade Alert Links / Screen Shots.

Note: I am just getting back in to the routine of posting daily trade profit and loss reports. For now the reports will include basic information and over time we will provide more information for traders that are using this information for their study and /or trading plans. Near future we will include more formal P&L spreadsheets also.

Section 1: Trading Day Summary.

As with Tuesday it was another non eventful day in advance of July 4 holiday. I expect this to change considerably in to next week.

On the stock (equity) trading front it was quiet for Day Trades and Swing Trades (July 4 holiday near) so that is expected. Watching $AMD close as I am in 3/10 size, the other swing trades / updates will be on the report we’re near completing now (I have a number of open trades that I will report on).

In crude oil trade, our machine software triggered 3 trades, all were winners.

Section 2: Specifics on Trades for the Day.

If you cannot see a chart below, a link is not available or not showing to the alert and/or chart or parts of the data is blocked with ******, this is because it is a premium member chart or alert. As time allows I provide in the section below copies of charts, guidance from private member Discord server chat room, live trade room screen shots and screen shots of alerts.

Oil Machine Trades / Alerts.

As above there were 3 machine trade, 2 actionable alerts for our members and 1 was too quick to alert and be actionable for members. Below are screen shots of trade alerts on the private member Twitter feed and Discord member chat room.
Trade alerts from oil machine software 3 for 3 wins today (2 actionable), some screen shot samples of trade sequences below from alert feed. One red day at -0.2% draw down since version launch. #OOTT $USOIL $WTI $USO #OilTradeAlerts #MachineTrading https://compoundtrading.com/product/live-oil-trading-alerts/ …

Trade alerts from oil machine software 3 for 3 wins today (2 actionable), some screen shot samples of trade sequences below from alert feed. One red day at -0.2% draw down since version launch. #OOTT $USOIL $WTI $USO #OilTradeAlerts #MachineTrading https://t.co/PMO03ofcVt pic.twitter.com/JQs7rHbiqr

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) July 3, 2019

From the private member oil chat room, trade alerts below (sequence of trades)
JeremyYesterday at 6:27 AM
M – software is firing HF shorts 56.80 3/10 size (larger than normal) and covering fast in to .74 and on alert for an inflection. In short, its in HF mode for an inflection in to 7:30 with time cycle peak 9:00 AM
M – significant supply above 56.80 is causing the software to fire short, if supply moves out it will turn and fire long. 7:30 is the mark for a decision.
M – supply blocks are larger than typical so a very large move is expected. This also coincides with timing on EPIC model (core, middle of quad with largest expected range).
JeremyYesterday at 6:53 AM
M – it is selling again 56.80 on a high frequency protocol, won’t hold any above, tight stops.
JeremyYesterday at 7:28 AM
M – software keeps selling in low 56.80s and covering in low 56.70s so we will see.
Oil trade alert in Discord Member chat room, first machine trade sequence alerted to members.
JeremyYesterday at 7:37 AM
M – it’s been selling against that pivot on the last 5 min candle at 56.77, if that doesn’t hold it won’t stay short. Trading 56.72 intra.
M – correction, 15 min candle pivot 56.77
Oil trade alerts in private oil trading chat room
JeremyYesterday at 8:04 AM
M – covered for now 56.64 still on sell signal
Oil trade alert to cover short sell trade in oil trading room.
JeremyYesterday at 10:36 AM
M – long 56.24 1/10 HF
M- added 56.22 close 1 .33 holds 1 / 10
M – closed .45 stil on buy program
Long trade in CL in oil trading room alerted to membership.

Personal Oil Trades.

None.

Machine Bitcoin Trades.

N/A in development.

Personal Bitcoin Trades.

None, watching current action to either re-short at resistance (see member report) or cover the final 25%. Great trade so far but would like to see price targets 2 and 3 of 3 hit. Price target 1 hit.

Personal Swing Trades.

No new positions, adds or trims (other than Bitcoin). This will get very active as soon as the new swing trade report is released and we are past the July 4 holiday.

Personal Day Trades.

None on day. As above, once the new swing report comes out my day trading will get much more active. Our swing trade chart models can be used for daytrading (converting them on the fly is easy – bringing the time-frame down to 30, 15, 5 and 1 minute time frames).

Section 3: Trading Room Raw Video Footage for the Day.

#OilTrading #BitcoinTrading #DayTrading #SwingTrading #MachineTrading #TradeAlerts

The video below is a raw feed only, to find live trading and trade alerts voice broadcast when lead trader is trading in the room reference the time of day on the alerts. I make this available for authenticity / documentation and also some learning traders use the raw feeds for study purpose. Also, as time allows I publish separate trade set-up reports with video snippets to our blog and YouTube.

Live Trading Room Raw Feed

If you have any questions about my trading or need help with yours send me an email anytime [email protected] and I’ll do my best to help.

Thanks

Curt

Events:

Trade Coaching Webinars. This weekend we will announce 3 different How to Trade webinars. All three to be held Sunday July 7. One each for 1:00 PM Oil, 5:00 PM Swing Trading, and 7:00 PM Bitcoin trading. They will be recorded and available for order on website thereafter. Each will have limited attendee availability so that I have time to work with attendee question and answer during the webinar. Existing members get 50% discounted rates: Retail rates Oil 499.99 (4 hrs), Swing Trading 199.00 (2 hrs), Bitcoin 99.00 (1 hr). Legacy members free. If you want to attend or want a copy of the webinar video email Jen [email protected] prior to promo going out this weekend as these particular webinar formats fill up quick.

Master Trading Profit & Loss Statement (Most Recent – Updated Regularly – Check Blog for Updates):

Trading Profit & Loss Report | Trade Alerts Nov 2016 – June 26, 2019 Day Trades, Swing Trades, Oil, BTC Etc.

Recent Daily Trading Profit & Loss Reports Here:

Daily Trading Profit & Loss (Alerts) Report: July 2, 2019 $AMD, $BTC, $XBT_F, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO

Daily Trading Profit & Loss (Alerts) Report: July 1, 2019 $AMD, $KOOL, $BTC, $XBT_F, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO

Recent Premarket Notes Here (for more about what we’re up to with our trading):

July 2, 2019 – Premarket Notes: Swing Updates, New BTC Platform w/Machine Trade, Oil Machine Trade Completion $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $BTC $BTC_F $XBT_F #premarket

June 28, 2019 – Premarket Note: Equities, Oil Levels to Watch, Swing Trades/Alerts, P&Ls, Webinars: Oil, Swing Trading, Bitcoin | $USOIL $WTI #OOTT $BTC #premarket

Company News:

SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

Subscribe to Learn and Profit:

Click Here for Subscription Service Price Tables.

Free Mailing List(s):

Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.

Free Swing Trading Periodical Contact Form (Complimentary Swing Trade Set-Ups to Email)

Public Chat:

Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.

Apr 2019

Crude Oil Trading Strategies | Private Member Premium Publication

Crude Oil Trading Strategy Crude Oil, strategies, Trading Curt Melonopoly

Below are the updated crude oil trading models in chart form to be used in forming trading strategies for day trading, intra-day swing trading and swing trading weekly and monthly time frames.

The charts are suitable for human mechanically executed trading and are also the models our coding staff are using for our crude oil machine trading.

With each chart model there are trade strategy notes included for consideration.

If you have any questions about the models below please email us at [email protected].

Please note, the charts are distributed to various groups and individuals with various url’s. If you are using more than one device to access the charting please email us a general description of those devices to assist us in controlling dissemination.

EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Model.

Resistance and support is at each line on the algorithmic oil model chart. The primary areas are quad walls and channel support and resistance (orange dotted), mid channel line (white dotted), Fibonacci (various horizontal colors), historical support and resistance (purple), The swing trading range is from thick horizontal gray line to the next.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/56XUg9W5-EPIC-30-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-Intra-day-crude-oil-trade-A/

30 Min, algorithm, EPIC, crude, oil, trade

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Model Intra-day crude oil trade. April 8 1229 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

Per previous;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/0ENSoplS-One-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-521-PM-Mar-31-FX-USOIL-WTI-USO/

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Model Intra-day crude oil trade. Mar 31 500 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

One Minute Oil Trading Model.

The one minute oil trading model provides for pinpoint trade entry, sizing and exit points. It is also used for squeeze scenarios in oil day trading. The main range is between the red / blue areas with thicker dotted white lines. The range is considerably more predictable in a squeeze scenario.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/itdJTAWN-One-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-404-PM1-April-7-FX-USOIL-WTI-US/

one, minute, oil, trading, chart, day trade

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model 404 PM1 April 7 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per previous;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/0ENSoplS-One-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-521-PM-Mar-31-FX-USOIL-WTI-USO/

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model 521 PM Mar 31 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

5 Minute Crude Oil Chart Model.

The five minute oil trading strategy chart below includes a Elliot impulse 5 wave component for when oil is trading intraday on this time frame. The horizontal uptrending green lines can be used as support and resistance decision areas.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/3FB0mls7-5-Min-Crude-Oil-Trade-Model-concept-chart-114-AM-April-8-FX-US/

5 Min Crude Oil Trade Model (concept chart) 416 PM April 7 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per previous;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/VizqJrPf-5-Min-Crude-Oil-Trade-Model-concept-chart-456-PM-Mar-31-FX-USO/

5 Min Crude Oil Trade Model (concept chart) 456 PM Mar 31 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

30 Minute Crude Oil Trading Structure.

The 30 minute structure primarily uses the Fibonacci trendlines that for the diamond shapes (quads) and the mid / top / bottom of quads marked in white dotted horizontal lines (key support and resistance areas).

Pay special attention to the relation between the intra-day price of crude oil and the 20 MA and 200 MA on the 30 minute chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/H0slVqc5-30-Min-Alternate-wide-view-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-549-PM-Apri/

30 Min Alternate (wide view) Crude Oil Trading Model 549 PM April 7 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per previous;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/su8pnCYm-30-Min-Alternate-wide-view-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-906-PM-Mar/

30 Min Alternate (wide view) Crude Oil Trading Model 906 PM Mar 31 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

30 Minute Micro Oil Trading Structure

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/UBNkt8RA-30-Min-Alternate-micro-view-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-444-PM-Apr/

30 Min Alternate (micro view) Crude Oil Trading Model 444 PM April 7 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/jrmZ8InZ-30-Min-Alternate-micro-view-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-1013-PM-Ma/

30 Min Alternate (micro view) Crude Oil Trading Model 1013 PM Mar 31 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

4 Hour Symmetry Chart Model.

Crude oil has been trading in the channel on this algorithmic model since an 7, 2019. The white dotted lines at the top and bottom of this structure are support and resistance in the trending channel. The targets are historical hits.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/In9ecRYl-4-Hour-Symmetry-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-546-PM-April-7-FX-USOIL/

4 Hour Symmetry Crude Oil Trading Model 546 PM April 7 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per previous;

The white targets are showing a possible divergence to trade either up or down in to either of the white targets in this time cycle.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/Z6GiJd5a-4-Hour-Symmetry-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-1118-PM-Mar-31-FX-USOIL/

4 Hour Symmetry Crude Oil Trading Model 1118 PM Mar 31 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

4 Hour Oil Concept Trading Model.

The 4 hour crude oil concept model below has trendlines, Fibonacci support and resistance horizontal lines (pay close attention to the gray horizontal lines) and diagonal algorithmic Fib trend lines (orange dotted).

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/uFUea6H8-4-Hour-Concept-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-April-7-429-PM-FX-USOIL-W/

4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model April 7 429 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per previous;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/ZcpM2Fqk-4-Hour-Concept-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-1202-April-1-FX-USOIL-WTI/

4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model 1202 April 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Daily Trading Model.

The daily time frame provides a larger structure to consider. The diagonal Fib lines are important as are the mid quad horizontal lines. The moving averages (especially the 200 MA) should be considered in your trade strategy.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/MlBUsY50-Daily-Chart-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-510-PM-April-7-FX/

Daily Chart Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 510 PM April 7 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per previous;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/XU1qo0wA-Daily-Chart-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-1226-April-1-FX-US/

Daily Chart Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 1226 April 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Weekly Oil Trading Model.

The most important signals on the weekly chart model below are the red historical trend lines. Pay very close attention to them. There are other common indicators on the model also.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/6QQ9NQDr-Weekly-Trendline-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-April-7-534-PM-FX-USOIL/

Weekly Trendline Crude Oil Trading Model April 7 534 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per previous;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/hZ7LN7Y2-Weekly-Trendline-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-1219-April-1-FX-USOIL-W/

Weekly Trendline Crude Oil Trading Model 1219 April 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Monthly Oil Trading Model.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/QswfAw7E-Monthly-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-April-8-1244-AM-FX-USO/

Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model April 8 1244 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/sttZx83M-Monthly-200-MA-Crude-Oil-Trading-Chart-April-8-1247-AM-FX-USOIL/

Monthly 200 MA Crude Oil Trading Chart April 8 1247 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

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Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

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Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Futures, Strategy, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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Mar 2019

3 Spots Left “Everything I Know About Trading Crude Oil” Webinar Event March 24: 10 AM – 6 PM

Webinars Crude Oil, learn to trade, oil trading, Webinar Curt Melonopoly

Even if you are not attending the webinar, you should read this if you are a client of Compound Trading Group or affiliates.

As of 2:00 PM Saturday We Have 3 Spots Left for the Sunday Crude Oil Trade Training Webinar!

10:00 AM – 6 PM EST Sunday March 24, 2019 we are hosting a special crude oil trading webinar.

This special series webinar will cover everything our trading team has learned about crude oil trade.

Content will include conventional and algorithmic crude oil trading. Conventional and algorithmic charting, technical set-ups, time cycles, sizing, swing trading and day-trading oil and much more.

In summary this will be a detailed insiders look at everything our lead trader and team have learned as investors, swing traders, day traders and algorithmic traders of crude oil.

The timing of this event is no accident and is specific to our lead trader / team finishing a full cycle learning process spanning decades (an organic, transparent systematic process of discovery) – investing to swing trading to day trading to high frequency machine trading and now AI on the horizon.

We know very specifically what works, what does not, why and how to execute on this knowledge.

The reality of return for each type of oil trading process may surprise you. We traded oil to over 60% return in January, 30% in February and in March some accounts are even negative (some are not) – there is a reason for the returns in each of those 3 months. We tried, tested, traded, back-tested every method of oil trade.

We will be uncovering it all for our attendees in a one-time 8 hour special webinar event.

To be clear, our discovery process is over, after this webinar is over we will only be trading specifically what we know to be the highest probability set-ups. We won’t be testing here forward.

Shortly after this webinar we go private, so now is the time.

Below is important information for attendees (from a previous post):

The webinar will cover my strategies for conventional and algorithmic oil trade and charting, intra-day trading, short term swing trading, longer term swing trading, trade sizing, time cycles, key set-ups and much more.

I will explain in detail how I maintain a win rate of better than 90% in crude oil trade (live recorded in our oil trading room and live alerted to our members).

Limited attendance of 25 persons to allow me to take questions and converse as needed to be sure we cover the trading concepts in detail.

Current member clients of Compound Trading Group receive 50% off. Use promo code: member

Early bird registrants prior to March 11, 2019 receive 30% off (cannot be used in conjunction with other offers). Use promo code: early.

To Register for the Crude Oil Trading Webinar Click Here.

The 8 hour special webinar event cost : 499.00.

Attendees receive a free video report of the webinar after we’re done so that you can study the in depth knowledge long in to the future. The video will also be available online at our store (for non attendees).

Can’t attend? The post webinar cost for non-attendees for the video is 799.00 at our online shop. Pre-orders (prior to March 24) receive a 30% discount. Use promo code: earlybird. To pre-order the video click here VIDEO: Everything I Know About Trading Crude Oil | Special Webinar Event Series

For complimentary trade articles, click this link: Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil.

For our Oil Trading Services use the links below:

Crude Oil Trade Alerts – alerts via Discord Server and Twitter Feed.

Crude Oil Trading Bundle with Newsletters, Charting, Live Trading Room and Alerts – Recommended bundle for the active oil trader.

Post topics; oil trading, crude oil, webinar, learn to trade

Mar 2019

Everything I Know About Trading Crude Oil | Special Webinar Event Series | March 24: 10 AM – 6 PM

Webinars Crude Oil, strategies, Trading, Webinar Curt Melonopoly

Intensive Crude Oil Trade Training Webinar.

Spend a Day With Me March 24, 2019 – I will be hosting a crude oil trading webinar. I will cover everything I know about crude oil trade in a one-time 8 hour special webinar event.

I will explain in detail how I maintain a win rate of better than 90% in crude oil trade (live recorded in our oil trading room and live alerted to our members).

Limited attendance of 25 persons to allow me to take questions and converse as needed to be sure we cover the trading concepts in detail.

Current member clients of Compound Trading Group receive 50% off. Use promo code: member

Early bird registrants prior to March 11, 2019 receive 30% off (cannot be used in conjunction with other offers). Use promo code: early.

To Register for the Crude Oil Trading Webinar Click Here.

The 8 hour special webinar event cost : 499.00.

For complimentary trade articles, click this link: Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil.

Mar 2019

Protected: Crude Oil Trading Strategies, Machine Trade Protocol 13.1, One Minute Algorithmic Model, Range, Trade Box, MA, TL.

Crude Oil Day Trading, Crude Oil Trading Strategy, Machine Trading Crude Oil, day trade, machine, strategies, Trading Curt Melonopoly

Feb 2019

“The Bullet Hits Before You Hear It” | Why You Can’t Beat Machine Trading Algorithms.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy, General Complimentary Newsletters, Lead Trader Blog Post, Machine Trading Algorithms, Crude Oil, Day Trading, deep learning, machine trade, software, Trade Curt Melonopoly

I Have Been Down the Rabbit Hole.

I know my journey (of the last two and a half years) few have traveled. I know this to be so, like I know I breathe.

I didn’t know before I went down that hole, but I know now – how much I did not know before I went down that hole. And it’s huge. I knew nothing. Few know anything.

I can’t imagine many other disciplines in the world as off-side as this. Nothing, and I mean nothing in regular market banter, conventional stock exchange media or social media ever deals with the reality of what is down that hole. They don’t even know there is a hole (most).

Why is this topic of any importance to a trader or investor?

The topic? A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and that will matter before the humans know it mattered.

A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and

that will matter before the humans know it mattered.

Assuming the 80/20 rule applies to the markets, then 20 percent win 80 percent of the trades and reap 80% of the reward (ROE). I don’t know what the real numbers are – it was likely closer to 90/10 before machine learning entered the public stock markets. I would venture to guess it’s 97/3 or so now. But I don’t know.

The problem looks like this… what happens when the machines (run by less than .001% – a guess) garner 90% or more of the market return? Is that possible? I know it is, I know it may be true now, and if not it isn’t far away. What percentage of current liquidity is machine learning trade driven? What percentage of that is on the win side?

What does that look like in the future? How far away is that future? I will bet that future is here now and it has enormous effect on your earning potential (as a human trader). And I will put forward right here that it will end the way humans trade in global markets about five years out. It already has, the humans just haven’t accepted reality.

So why then is this so important? We’re here to win. We trade to win. To earn. To see return on equity. Return on time. The path forward is critical for any trader that derives their income from trading.

Early adopters will win. They will win because they will develop relationships with firms that will provide solutions. They will win because they will adopt the technology, relationships, financial rewards before the technology is out of reach (financially speaking). Or perhaps, never available at certain levels of society. Never available is more likely.

Early adopters will win.

The market is already littered with technology built on poor science. It simply doesn’t work. But the firms that have figured it out… have really figured it out. How long does it take them to hit market capacity? Will they share the technology? I say no, they won’t be sharing.

There are many questions.

At minimum, it’s prudent in my view for a trader to cozy up to the developers. This isn’t a sales pitch, we’re beyond selling anyone. We’ve completed our first machine learning software – we don’t need to sell you. So why write this article? Because I want to share something I’ve learned in the process of development that I think is of critical importance to anyone that has followed our journey. I feel a responsibility to share. Share what you ask?

You can’t beat the machines. It’s not possible. And I know. I’m a damn good trader and I can’t even beat our first generation software with crude oil futures trade. I don’t think it has lost a trade this month (maybe it has but I don’t think so) and we’re near three weeks in to the month. And it’s not that it hasn’t lost, it is more about how it wins.

It knows before I do. It enters before I do. It trims in to positions and exits when I wouldn’t. It knows things I can’t know, I can’t see. It sees every line on every book in the library instantly, while I search for the right book on the shelf.

It sees every line on every book in the library instantly,

while I search for the right book on the shelf.

How you ask? It has intuitive like capabilities (as I do) but it can process the decisions (as if intuitively) many times faster than I. It has systematic approaches to trade (as do I) but it can process the decisions on thirteen time-frames considering the historical structure of the financial instrument and how each time-frame relates to the next and which structure or time-frame should trump various trade execution decisions (the rule-set).

It is simply faster. It can process 8000 rules and how each rule relates to the next in each of the structures on each time-frame instantaneously. That instantaneous decision would take me at least 12 months full time of charting, historical back testing and deep thought to conclude that one decision. The machine executed on the decision and left the trade behind before I glanced over and seen it was over. I didn’t have time to acknowledge it was leaving the scene.

It’s not only faster, but precise. It enters and exits with absolute precision.

Yesterday (President’s Day holiday) it executed on one trade. The biggest move of the day on a slow day and it executed before the move happened. It shorted oil, I sat watching thinking why the heck is it short here? Tick tock tick tock boom, oil dropped about 37 points near instant, on a low range boring holiday trading day. And it covered in a flash before I could process why exiting the trade at that juncture of trade on the chart was valid. It is fast and it acts as if it is intuitive. And it is only first generation software.

Here’s a post that shows the trade;

A trade or two prior to yesterday’s was the same way. I couldn’t believe what I was watching.

Here’s another example, it knows over and over again where the real move in a time frame is before the move.

Oil trade alert feed – machine keeps chipping away at compound gains (member alert feed, oil chat room, trade on chart). FX USOL WTI $CL_F $USO #OOTT #machinetrading #oil #tradealerts pic.twitter.com/1X4Is0PWJG

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) February 15, 2019

And an example of how precise it is in comparison to my personal trade executions;

It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in oil trade account gains and it was yoked to a human at all times that throttled its executions by about 10 to 1. What am I saying? It could have traded up to 10x the return (assuming the same win rate and ROE on each trade would have transpired had it been non-yolked).

It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in account gains.

Over the last few days we’ve allowed it autonomy – to a point. It can execute with autonomy when it is executing but we still have it throttled to about 5 to 1, this will be slowly adjusted / released. This week is a holiday week so there is issue in the structure of the models so it will be a slower than usual machine trading week for our model, but next week will be a mad house – a slaughter house. I’m not exaggerating. It doesn’t lose. Okay, it does – maybe, but rarely and for next to nothing for loss when and if it does. If it’s wrong… its out and fast.

If you think this is exaggeration, visit our public facing Discord trading chat room (click here) and randomly ask anyone to step forward and tell you I’m wrong (members I am referring to). Or check out the alert feed yourself. I win around 90% of my personally executed trades in oil (yes documented), it (the machine learning software) wins something nearing 100%. But its wins are the real meat of each trade. My trades are choppy. It harvests the move in a way I cannot. The compound return effect on the difference is astronomical. Click here for a recent article I posted about compound trading gains in oil trade.

We have been working day and night for over two years to develop machine trading software that really works. Why do I say “that really works?” Because most is garbage. Below are the reasons why most algorithmic trading is a waste (how ours was developed) and why you the human trader cannot beat real machine trading execution in the stock market.

Take four people (average at any given time in the development process), have them work 60 – 80 hours a week for 2.5 years. That’s about 14,000 hours. If the methodology used is right you then have at least another 14,000 hours to refine the software rule-set along with constant updates etc. We have now completed the first 14,000 hours. What has that experience taught me? Primarily that a human trader will never beat machine software. And that doesn’t consider machine software that becomes intuitive like – AI, Artificial Intelligence.

Here are just a few (and I mean a few) reasons why you will never out trade the machine – specific to the methodology of development we used to develop our first machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts CL. Yes, I am going to tell you how we did it. Why? Because I won’t tell you how our intuitive development is implemented, that is proprietary and always will be. Here’s the nuts and bolts:

ROI – First month the machine garnered a 63% increase in trade account size and that was only the actionable oil trade alerts. Not the machine HFT returns. This means the software executed many more trades than what was alerted. We can only alert what a human can type fast enough to alert that could be actionable for our membership. Next on our list is a real-time feed for our members (automated alerts). In other words, the machine gained much more than 63% on its trading account, but that is private and always will be. What is public is what we alert that is actionable by a human trader executing trades manually. We are judged on what data can deliver as actionable to our clients.
INSTANT EXECUTION OF DEEP TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE – Take thirteen time-frames of crude oil (the charts) and find the structure of the financial instrument on each time frame (this is not systematic machine trading, this is an intuitive like process). Not to mention the time involved and cost. The human can’t process decisions on thirteen time-frames (both systematic and intuitive like and as they relate to each other, as described earlier in this article).
INTUITIVE EXECUTION, INSTANT – Each time frame structure as it relates to each other. Continuing specifically the intuitive like component of point 2 above… imagine constructing the models for the structure of the financial trading instrument on thirteen time frames, that in of itself is a massive undertaking. Then being able to almost intuitively determine how intra-day trade relates to each and which trumps the other. This is massive.
FAST EXECUTION. The machine can out execute any human with orders in and out and trailing and on and on. Complex structures of entries and exits and more instantaneously. This is critical for return on each trade.
PRECISE EXECUTION. Have you ever watched crude oil trade on the one minute chart? Precise execution with orders that change frequently in a flash of a second increases returns on each trade considerably. You can’t imagine the importance until you’ve been down the hole.

I am not speaking to;

I’m not speaking to conventional hedge fund robo adviser software. Most of it is junk designed to rob the masses taking advantage of the casino mind or lazy investor.

I’m not speaking to high frequency trading that leverages machine speed, order flow or execution locality. That is a form of HFT we have no interest in. We want transferable knowledge as it applies to the natural trading structure of the financial markets. Transferable in that the process used to derive the model for one can be applied to another.

I’m not speaking to run of the mill python code some random developed in his/her basement with 500.00 and an idea of how an instrument trades (the systematic process).

And finally, I am not speaking to the news oriented bots running software trades on intra-day media or geopolitical driven events.

The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning.

The intuitive like component, beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies. The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning. It is (as it applies to where we are now) the early building blocks of autonomous machine learning trade.

Beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies.

How did we get intuitive like software to work? What does intuitive like mean to us?

Here’s a glimpse… a real trader with decades of experience traded real-time for hundreds of hours live with software developers that extracted the intuitive like human understanding – real-time, asking questions, engaging in the why and how at each tick in the chart.

We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code. Only now… we have manifold times more horse-power.

We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code.

The new brain – the new trader, the intuitive like software… can execute hundreds of times faster on thousands of times the information second by second. Every tick on the chart is a complete new set of rules that need confronting, they need to be examined from every angle, back tested, related to each time frame, a plan derived and a trade has to executed right now. A series of right now. With precision.

The bullet hits before you hear it.

This is why the human will never beat (real) machine learning trade software. The only question that determines how good the software is, is how good the trader was that the developers used to extract from that created the entity (the software) and what process was used to do that. The cost? 14,000 – 28,000 hours at hundreds of dollars per hour – for a generation one package. And that is just the start.

It is a different world and we’re not by far the first out of the gate. But I know we’re running one of the better models out there. That I do know. Because it wins when it goes in to battle.

Any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier.

I also know that any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier. If you don’t you will regret not taking the time to forge your future. Now.

Best and peace,

Curt

Learn How to Day Trade Crude Oil Here:

Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil – real life articles / examples from an expert crude oil day trader.

Read Our Press Release About The SOVORON™ agreement (click here):

About SOVORON™

SOVORON™ offers a unique trading service providing clients with technology application based Machine Trade of personal investment accounts. To explore their unique client service structure click here http://sovoron.com/ or call 1-849-861-0697.

About Compound Trading Group.

Compound Trading Group is a market data provider to retail, commercial enterprise and institutional traders.

Trader Services – Compound Trading Group provides trader data services such as algorithm development, periodicals, trade coaching, trade alerts and live trading rooms. The near term objective is a digital dashboard environment for traders to fully engage machine trade and intelligent assisted trade data offered only at the commercial enterprise level.

Commercial Enterprise Services – Compound Trading Group develops financial instrument algorithm models and provides connect-ability to its proprietary AI Machine Trading software / data (representing various financial instruments) to private trade and institutional firms. Compound Trading Group also provides enterprise trader training, integration services, custom software / data constructs and strategic partner development opportunities.

Learn more at https://compoundtrading.com.

Oct 2018

PreMarket Trading Plan Tues Oct 30: Earnings, Crude Oil, TTWO, UAA, LEVB, PYX, BOX, NBEV, BLDP …

Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Tuesday October 30, 2018. In

PreMarket Trading Plan Tues Oct 30: Earnings, Crude Oil, TTWO, UAA, LEVB, PYX, BOX, NBEV, BLDP …

Trading Plan $BLDP, $LEVB, $NBEV, $PYX, $TTWO, $UAA, BOX, Crude Oil, Day-trading, earnings, Premarket, Stocks, Swing Trading, Trade Alerts, Trading Plan, Trading Room Curt Melonopoly

Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Tuesday October 30, 2018.

In this premarket trading edition: Earnings, Crude Oil, TTWO, UAA, LEVB, PYX, BOX, NBEV, BLDP and more.

Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading Group.

Notices:

Notes in red text in this report are more recently important.

Scheduled Events / Platform Development Work in Progress:

Ask for a tour of our member swing trading alert feed – we’ve done well through this and expect it to get better through Q1 2019. Been through many downturns over 30 years. Check the feed and tell me I’m wrong. #swingtrading #premarket https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/1057255452621324289
Platform Expansion This Week – Nominal Intermittent Down Time Expected: 1. We are integrating web mail servers with machine trading api’s for our clients, this may cause intermittent downtime for email [email protected] – use [email protected] if you experience issues. 2. We are moving our main fiber line – expect full trading room platform downtime for up to 30 mins.
Oct 30 – Lead trader booked for main trading room for market open 9:30 AM, 12:00 PM mid day review and futures trading this evening 6:00 PM (as available and as market demands).
Trade Coaching Boot Camp Cabarete Nov 30 – Dec 2, 2018 Winter Sessions Sell Out Fast (it is warm here after-all) so act fast if you plan to be here with us! https://compoundtrading.com/trade-coaching-boot-camp-cabarete-nov-30-dec-2-2018/.
- https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/1054318666878238720
Main live trading room – 24 hours a day (regular sessions and futures, with 1 hour breaks every 10 hours for server reboots) live recorded trading with Lead Trader. Exceptions include; Trade Coaching Boot Camps, Special Trading Webinars and when Lead Trader is not available.
What’s New / Work in Progress (week of Oct 29 we expect to clear this WIP list):
- Machine trading signals to be fed in to main trading room starting mid to late week of Oct 29.
- New pricing to be published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
- Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
- Trading Profit and Loss to be Published for Q1, Q2, Q3 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
- Trading Boot Camp Event videos to become available on Compound Trading website.
- Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
- New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
  - 1 day Bootcamps in November for each of the seven trading models and swing and daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members.
Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members.
Sept 14-16 Cabarete Trade Coaching Boot Camp went well, there are a series of post links on this landing page that detail what our itinerary was each day etc.
Machine Trade Coding Team Mandates: In current development and roll-out has commenced (1) Intelligent Assisted #IA Trading Platform (Code Algorithm Models), (2) Operate 24 Hour Crypto Trading Desk, (3) Alert Trade Set-ups to Member Alert Feeds (for all models) and (4) Machine Learning.

Premarket Report: On lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day).

Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.

Real-time Trade Alerts:

Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.

Oil Trading Alerts, Swing Trading Alerts, Day Trading Alerts, Bitcoin Trading Alerts.

Disclaimer / Disclosure, Terms of Use:

Subscribers: read disclaimer.

Blog / Video / Social Posts / Learn to Trade:

#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …

How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube

How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST

Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:

See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.

Oct 29 – Swing Trading Special Report Series (Part B) Mon Oct 29 SQ, AGN, BOX, PRQR, NBEV, PYX, NFLX, BLDP, LEVB, DIS.

Oct 28 – Crude Oil Trading Strategy | Technical Analysis & Guidance.

Oct 23 – Crude Oil Trading Strategy: Career Trade Set-Up. Technical Analysis Trading Room w/ Video.

Oct 20 – Crude Oil Algorithmic Trading: A Simple Strategy That Wins – Real Life Example.

Oct 17 – Daytrading Crude Oil: Buy Sell Signals Strategy for Intra-day Sell Off Reversal.

Oct 15 – Crude Oil Trading Strategies: This Is It. How To Trade Crude Oil’s Next Move.

Oct 8 – Crude Oil Trading Strategy – How I Will be Trading Oil in to Time Cycles.

Oct 7 – How I Will Be Trading Bitcoin in to Increased Volatility (We Expect) Next Two Quarters.

Oct 4 – Day Trading: Trading Momentum Stocks With A Catalyst Using Technical Analysis. Case Example $ROKU.

Oct 2 – Swing Trading Alerts (w / video) VIX, Gold, Silver, Tesla $TSLA, $LEVB, $BTC, $EDIT, $PYX and more.

Oct 3 – Oil Trading Room – Oil Trading Signals with Lead Trader (plus video).

Sept 28 – Swing Trading. How to Swing Trade Using Technical Analysis. Our SQUARE $SQ Trade As Example #swingtrading

Sept 26 – Trade Alerts | Day Trade & Swing Trades (w / video) Trading Square $SQ, $DIS, $NFLX, $AMD, OIL, $FB, $GOOGL and more.

Sept 25 – Crude Oil Trading Room – Member Oil Trade Signals / Alerts for Trading the EIA Report (w/ video)

Recent Educational Articles / Videos:

I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.

Trading Plan / Watch Lists. Morning Momentum / Gaps / News / PR / IPO / SEC Filings / Earnings Stocks on Watch:

October 30 Trading Plan: I published a swing trading report (Part B of the special series) last night – from that report and Part A of the series I have many stocks on watch that I think are decent candidates for long swings soon. I am watching a major support area on oil transpire in premarket, if it fails it may be another ladder down, if not it may be a decent long. Gold, Silver, BTC are under pressure and likely to be so now until Nov 11 ish. Sell-off should calm for a bit soon, other side of Nov 11 time cycle unclear at this point. VIX likely short set-up here. Those are my general bias near term but let price do the talking.

In equities also watching WMT, MCD, AAOI closely for long positions.

October 29 Trading Plan: Watching. Looks like a bounce in equity markets possible. Watching.

October 24 Trading Plan: It’s all about oil $WTI $CL_F today, then it will be about GOLD $GLD, SILVER $SLV, VIX $VIX and SP500 $SPY for me thereafter. Watching the TESLA $TSLA play and MCDONALDS $MCD very close. Everything else will be reviewed on swing trading report due out today.

October 23: Notes per below remain in play. New position long in Silver is working from 14.63’s as a swing trade, oil short in to open yesterday worked, watching for an intra-day bounce possible in to open in oil and then down likely. Gold has a bounce as does VIX as I expected in to this time cycle. Momentum daytrading is very dangerous right now. Watching some swing trades in equities (forming a report right now and I’ll release it today).

Considering a long term (6 months or more) swing trade in $MCD soon. Long.

$VIX up more than double since we were alerting time cycle run #premarket.

October 22: I have a new position in Silver in 14.63’s long that may get some pressure but there is a plan to add at support below. Earnings season may help equities some here near term – but it is dubious.

I will continue chewing around the edges of this crude oil sell-off at support areas for a reversal to the retracement and try and get a decent short position also when I can at upside resistance. Serious, serious pressure here in oil trade BUT support areas for possible reversal are starting to hit now on various charting time-frames and structures – BUT that doesn’t mean it will reverse. It reverses when it reverses, trade the indicators not bias.

Watching NFLX, SQ, ROKU, SHOP, FEYE very close right now and swinging them all. TSLA trade yesterday went great, still holding 25% on the swing side. Today is all about OIL with EIA.

PSTG has an upgrade I’m watching also.

I am leaning toward equity markets possibly holding up in to end of Oct early Nov, Gold Silver Crypto likely pressure in to that time frame, Oil likely pressure in to that time frame and VIX also. And then end of Oct early Nov that should switch.

This is a leaning bias – a general outlook. However, I do see significant risk that could trigger volatility at any time here. But generally equity markets should hold to that late Oct early Nov with VIX GOLD SILVER OIL under pressure and then the opposite should turn toward mid Dec time cycle peak. See the most recent oil trading strategies video.

I know I’ve been promising the remaining model reports for some time, last night we ran the machine trading tests on EPIC and it is working so I can leave the staff to that and now start getting the reporting out. The software development part of our biz I have to admit has been a challenge to our time.

It’s difficult to explain in short how complicated software development is with machine trading launch. But we’re learning to manage it. We’re in it to win it – we won’t give up and we’re making serious progress, that’s the bottom line.

Looking for possible short term sell off in oil with a spike in VIX, Gold, Silver and then markets should levitate for short term bringing VIX Gold Silver Crypto soft and then reversal again and again and rinse and repeat to mid December 2018 minimum.

Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It’s big, watch.

Further to that public Twitter post, over next two quarters I expect the equity markets to continue under serious pressure in to rates, after a technical retracement oil to skyrocket unless Trump can get a handle on the price somehow (trying with Saudi’s now), Dollar likely to spike hard for some time then fall off a cliff, volatility to increase, Gold and Silver get up and going soon and Crypto to fly. That’s my bias, thesis, trading plan in to next two quarters. Timing will be key. All of our reporting will reflect this near term and will also focus on key swing trading set-ups within themes.

Time cycle dates expiring in markets for big moves…. started end of July, next Oct 10, Nov 11, mid Dec big in to Q1 19. Distributing trading models starting tonight for time frames in expectation for #Oil, #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #SP500, #Volatility, #USD It's big, watch.

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 8, 2018

Market Observation:

Markets as of 8:18 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 96.68, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 66.46, Gold $GLD trading 1222.56, Silver $SLV trading 14.43, $SPY 265.30 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 6272.50 and $VIX trading 24.2.

Momentum Stocks / Gaps to Watch:

TTWO:RED DEAD LAUNCH GETS BIGGEST OPENING WEEKEND OF ALL TIME

Stocks making the biggest move premarket: KO, GE, PFE, TPR, UAA & more –

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/stocks-making-the-biggest-move-premarket-ko-ge-pfe-tpr-uaa–more.html

Stocks making the biggest move premarket: KO, GE, PFE, TPR, UAA & more – https://t.co/puluxQsJbH

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 30, 2018

News:

$URGN FDA Grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation UGN-101 For The Treatment Of Patients With Low-Grade Upper Tract Urothelial Cancer (LG UTUC)

Recent SEC Filings / Insiders:

Recent IPO’s:

Initial public offerings haven’t enriched investors so far this financial year amid volatility in the market.

Initial public offerings haven’t enriched investors so far this financial year amid volatility in the market.https://t.co/mYWuYAMqQK

— NDTV Profit (@NDTVProfitIndia) October 30, 2018

Earnings:

HCA shares up 3.1% premarket after earnings beat.

Mastercard stock rises after earnings beat.

#earnings for the week

$FB $AAPL $BABA $GE $IQ $MA $BIDU $EBAY $CHK $XOM $EA $TEVA $GM $UAA $TNDM $BP $SPOT $ON $FDC $ADP $CVX $KO $AMRN $SBUX $X $ABBV $PFE $FIT $PAYC $YNDX $OLED $ABMD $WTW $ANET $WLL $LL $FEYE $DDD $RIG $SNE $KEM $NWL $STX $BAH $FTNT

http://eps.sh/cal

#earnings for the week$FB $AAPL $BABA $GE $IQ $MA $BIDU $EBAY $CHK $XOM $EA $TEVA $GM $UAA $TNDM $BP $SPOT $ON $FDC $ADP $CVX $KO $AMRN $SBUX $X $ABBV $PFE $FIT $PAYC $YNDX $OLED $ABMD $WTW $ANET $WLL $LL $FEYE $DDD $RIG $SNE $KEM $NWL $STX $BAH $FTNT https://t.co/r57QUKKDXL https://t.co/w6cD7uO3t7

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 29, 2018

#earningsseason calendar

$AMD $AMZN $FB $AAPL $TSLA $MSFT $NVDA $SQ $BABA $GE $SNAP $CLF $INTC $T $GOOGL $CGC $TWTR $BA $V $IQ $CAT $F $ROKU $SHOP $CRON $SLB $PG $BIDU $CELG $JD $HON $MA $DBX $HEAR $AMAT $TEVA $HAL $NOK $DIS $AAL $EA $TNDM $CMG $EBAY

http://eps.sh/cal

#earningsseason calendar$AMD $AMZN $FB $AAPL $TSLA $MSFT $NVDA $SQ $BABA $GE $SNAP $CLF $INTC $T $GOOGL $CGC $TWTR $BA $V $IQ $CAT $F $ROKU $SHOP $CRON $SLB $PG $BIDU $CELG $JD $HON $MA $DBX $HEAR $AMAT $TEVA $HAL $NOK $DIS $AAL $EA $TNDM $CMG $EBAY https://t.co/r57QUKKDXL https://t.co/exPTAW20yW

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 17, 2018

Trade Set-up Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Trade Alerts, Open and Closed Trades:

Please refer to the date at top left of each chart (charts are often carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded as decision to decision process – when the trade set-up fails cut your position fast. Leg in to the winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit the losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide the framework for your trade (the chart structure enables the trader to set stops where a trade is a failed trade and leg in to winners and trim winners per the chart). The purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of the trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy that should be harnessed in your rules based process.

Crude Oil – The only chart that matters today (beyond EPIC Oil Algorithm) FX USOIL WTI CL_F USO #crudeoil

Crude Oil – The only chart that matters today (beyond EPIC Oil Algorithm) FX USOIL WTI CL_F USO #crudeoil

Swing trading with technical analysis $BLDP

Swing trading with technical analysis $BLDP #swingtrading #tradealerts pic.twitter.com/WURkhsEzCt

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 30, 2018

Swing trading with technical analysis $LEVB

Swing trading with technical analysis $LEVB #swingtrading #tradealerts pic.twitter.com/tnYe1Cj7iO

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 30, 2018

Swing trading with technical analysis $PYX

Swing trading with technical analysis $PYX #swingtrading #tradealerts pic.twitter.com/36IfTDhB2Q

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 30, 2018

Swing trading with technical analysis. $NBEV

Swing trading with technical analysis. $NBEV #swingtrading #tradealerts pic.twitter.com/IKvPhqzOtk

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 30, 2018

Swing trading with technical analysis. $BOX

Swing trading with technical analysis. $BOX #swingtrading #tradealerts pic.twitter.com/CCyhDBJ135

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 30, 2018

Crude oil 4 hour chart. Trendlines. FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #chart #OOTT https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo/status/1056884532408926208

Crude oil 4 hour chart. Trendlines. FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #chart

$TSLA #premarket jam. Closed 263.75 – 338.75 was a good one. Next! #swingtrade

$TSLA #premarket jam. Closed 263.75 – 338.75 was a good one. Next! #swingtrade pic.twitter.com/M4NDXkdoMi

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 29, 2018

Machine trade in oil top tick hit perfect 67.62 to penny HOD, trimmed added numerous all win side and closed 90% 66.83. Nice trade.

Machine trade in oil top tick hit perfect 67.62 to penny HOD, trimmed added numerous all win side and closed 90% 66.83. Nice trade.

On the daily oil chart price ended the week right above the 200 MA and above the primary pivot marked on the chart.

On the daily chart price ended the week right above the 200 MA and above the primary pivot marked on the chart.

Crude oil trade in to open yesterday: Nailed the Crude Oil Short in Trading Room at Open.

Nailed the Crude Oil Short in Trading Room at Open USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F $UWTI $DWTI #Oil #Trade #Alerts

Trade alert this morning to trim Silver and add above: Trimming Silver 14.78 per price target will add above.

Trimming Silver 14.78 per price target will add above #swingtrading #alerts $SLV

Trade alert yesterday : Long Silver 14.63 target 14.78 tight stops.

Long Silver 14.63 target 14.78 tight stops. #swingtrading #tradealerts #Silver

Silver Weekly Chart has a MACD turn up possible, watching for a possible run up Oct 21 756 PM #Silver #Algorithm $SLV $USLV $DSLV

Gold (Daily) With MACD turn back up price above pivot near 200 MA resistance test – this trade is on high watch #GOLD $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD

Gold (Daily) With MACD turn back up price above pivot near 200 MA resistance test – this trade is on high watch #GOLD $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD pic.twitter.com/JNfF5U9u7L

— Rosie the Gold Algo (@ROSIEtheAlgo) October 21, 2018

Daytrading Crude Oil – Screen Shot of Oil Trade Alerts Feed with signals for long oil trade and closing trade.

Daytrading Crude Oil – Screen Shot of Oil Trade Alerts Feed with signals for long oil trade and closing trade.

TESLA (TSLA) daytrade with swing trade possible here to higher, we got some of that move at open. $TSLA #trading

TESLA (TSLA) daytrade with swing trade possible here to higher, we got some of that move at open. $TSLA #trading pic.twitter.com/6Kjglgconf

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 16, 2018

That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT

That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT pic.twitter.com/vlOAl0ze6A

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 16, 2018

That spike in Sunday night oil futures open was interesting (on Saudi Trump news flow), caught me off guard but I got a piece of it $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTradeAlerts #OOTT

Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy with Trend-Lines on Weekly Chart Reviewed at 950 mins on video.

Working the daytrade edges on SP500 $SPY #daytrading #tradealerts

Working the daytrade edges on SP500 $SPY #daytrading #tradealerts pic.twitter.com/tcbGIESXQF

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 9, 2018

Working the edges of volatility on daytrading time-frames today also $VIX $TVIX $UVXY #tradealerts #daytrading

Working the edges of volatility on daytrading time-frames today also $VIX $TVIX $UVXY #tradealerts #daytrading pic.twitter.com/1on7qS3aYJ

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 9, 2018

Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #oil #trading #algorithm

Example of knowing probability of time cycles (intra-day example). Look at the guidance in the oil trading room…. exact time of day and price of oil hit per guidance many hours earlier. Power of time cycles. FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #oil #trading #algorithm pic.twitter.com/qa0HueviTl

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 9, 2018

This was an intra-day time cycle trade. I win when I respect time cycles, lose when I don’t. It is that simple.

This was an intra-day time cycle trade. I win when I respect time cycles, lose when I don't. It is that simple. https://t.co/k4HO2izAT7

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 9, 2018

$ROKU #daytrading #tradealerts

$ROKU #daytrading #tradealerts pic.twitter.com/RWXQcogTll

— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) October 1, 2018

VOLATILITY (VIX) So we have a MACD turn up on weekly chart structure, Stoch RSI SQZMOM up, 20s possible Oct 1. $VIX $TVIX $UVXY #volatility #chart

VOLATILITY (VIX) So we have a MACD turn up on weekly chart structure, Stoch RSI SQZMOM up, 20s possible Oct 1. $VIX $TVIX $UVXY #volatility #chart

BITCOIN (BTC) Wedge chart pattern on daily time-frame chart. $BTC $XBT $XBTUSD #Bitcoin #Chart

BITCOIN (BTC) Wedge chart pattern on daily time-frame chart. $BTC $XBT $XBTUSD #Bitcoin #Chart

Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:

#5things
-Trump wants a great deal
-Huge day for earnings
-Euro-area GDP misses
-Markets mixed
-Coming up…
https://bloom.bg/2PsZ7C0

The Stock Market is up massively since the Election, but is now taking a little pause – people want to see what happens with the Midterms. If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model, High Taxes & Open Borders!

The Stock Market is up massively since the Election, but is now taking a little pause – people want to see what happens with the Midterms. If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model, High Taxes & Open Borders!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 30, 2018

holy shit

holy shit pic.twitter.com/OhlKe0oD9B

— Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) October 30, 2018

Smart Money Flow Index now at lowest since Jan. 1996…

If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channel and at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $ESIO $GSL $ACHV $DFBG $TTWO $AKAM $UA $UAA $CHGG $CCCL $KEM $DRYS $MYSZ $NSPR $UGAZ $BP

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List :

(3) Other Watch-List:

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWT, $DWT, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY), $BTCUSD Bitcoin.

(5) Recent Upgrades: $HES $WERN $CSTM $SCHW $CHGG $PSX $JBLU $COOP $SNDR $XPO $ODFL $CVE $GRFS $NVDA $POR $JWN $AMED $AKAM

$PRTO initiated at Buy at Maxim. PT $5

(6) Recent Downgrades: $ELVT $ETFC $UAL $SAVE $LUV $WFT $ARCB $GPC $UNFI $DDS $FLEX

AMD price target cut to $26 from $33 at Cowen

TriNet Group $TNET PT Lowered to $54 at Credit Suisse

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Study:

For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $BTC (@CryptotheAlgo) $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index). Our Swing Trading Twitter feed is found here: https://twitter.com/swingtrading_ct. Our lead trader Twitter feed is here @curtmelonopoly

Article Topics: Premarket, Stocks, Trading Plan, Trade Alerts, Trading Room, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Earnings, Earnings, Crude Oil, TTWO, UAA, LEVB, PYX, BOX, NBEV, BLDP

Oct 2018

Crude Oil Algorithmic Trading: A Simple Strategy That Wins – Real Life Example.

A Real-Life Simple to Reproduce, Consistent Example of a Winning Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy From Our Lead

Crude Oil Algorithmic Trading: A Simple Strategy That Wins – Real Life Example.

Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (EPIC), Crude Oil Trading Strategy, General Complimentary Newsletters Algorithmic, Crude Oil, Daytrading, Oil, Strategy, Trading, Trading Room Curt Melonopoly

A Real-Life Simple to Reproduce, Consistent Example of a Winning Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy From Our Lead Trader.

How Algorithmic Trading Can Help You Win Consistently (from our trading room on Friday). Man and Machine.

Day trading crude oil futures is not easy… but it is at the same time. The most difficult for me is executing trades based on what I know is right – the most probable winning trade set-ups for buy/sell signals as provided by our algorithmic oil trading model.

This is why I always tell our clients to study the rule-set and use trade alerts only for a heads-up and to use your own trading plan based on your understanding, sizing, comfort area etc. Behind the alerts is a real trader too (at least as it applies to my alerts, our machine trading alerts are a different story going forward).

The buy/signals provided by our algorithm provide structured day trading that increases my win rate greatly – but only when I respect the rules of the model.

I have published a number of articles now detailing the basic rules of the model to assist traders with a better win rate. My personal win rate went from (at best) 60% to approximately 90% (it fluctuates between 80%-95% on an annual basis – there is an ebb and flow). All time stamped live trade alerts.

In our oil trading room last Friday I was triggering trades as was our machine trading technician – man vs. machine (again).

The bottom line: the machine (without effort) won (following the rule-set), and I won – that is until I got greedy.

Both the machine trading technician and I were triggering long side positions near the same time in to the Friday regular market open (my long entries were adds to the previous night futures trade I was already in).

The trade worked well and when the trade met its price target area of the algorithmic model structure (resistance) the machine trade trimmed and then closed on some pull-back and I closed completely.

But I started looking for a further break-out above the algorithmic model signal of resistance as provided by EPIC the Crude Oil Algorithm (after I already had a winning trade). This was the error.

But I started looking for a further break-out above the algorithmic model signal of resistance as provided by EPIC the Crude Oil Algorithm (after I already had a winning trade).

So yes, my day was affected negatively (not that bad because I recovered some by trading bounces during the intra-day reversal sell off), but not good because my trading day could have been very positive vs. negative / stressful on the day.

There is a low stress easier way – just follow the rules of the model. The algorithmic trading model provides a consistent, simple, highly profitable structure for day trading (and even swing trading) crude oil.

Below I explain what I did right and what I did wrong, how easy it is to trade crude oil using proven strategies (with EPIC Oil Algorithm) and how easy it is to get greedy – hopefully my real-life experience helps your trading.

#CrudeOil #AlgorithmicTrading #TradingStrategy FX: $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO

The Trade Details (actual screen shots of the alert feed, charting and commentary).

Below is the initial alert (screen shot from our trade alert feed on Twitter) by our oil machine trading technician at 9:17 AM on Friday October 19, 2018. The technician alerted a trade signal long machine buy program in to the regular market open at 69.25 on the algorithmic charting.

Our algorithmic charting is produced on crude oil FX USOIL WTI and this can be used for trading oil futures CL, ETNs / ETFs such as United States Oil Fund (USO), SCO, UCO, UWTI, DWTI and more.

Crude Oil Trade Alert (screen shot) – Machine Trade Buy program initiated in to open 69.25 917 AM – 19 Oct 2018.

At 9:20 PM October 18, 2018 in futures trade the night prior (Thursday night) I alerted to the feed a long side trade entry at 68.93 as a test trade for the break of upside resistance area. So at this point I was in at 68.93 long and the technician was in the trade at 69.25 the next morning.

Oil Trade Alert (Lead Trader) Screen Shot. Long test 68.93 tight, break res upside test 920 PM – 18 Oct 2018

Less than one minute later (after the technician alerted) I was alerting adds to my existing trade (we were obviously loading our trades and alerts at near the exact same time).

Oil trade alert (screen shot) Adds in to open – lead trader (watch open, will close fast if it fails but it does look like it will squeeze possibly).

The Buy Signals Triggering a Long Oil Trade Alert:

On a conventional crude oil 1 minute chart for FX USOIL WTI, the long side trade entry alert signal sent out to members of our oil trading service was based on a number of signals that combined (in momentum and confirmed with the algorithm model) provide high probability to a winning day trade – the signals are as follows:

Intra day trade in to regular market open breached the Fibonacci trend-line resistance (grey dotted line),
Trade breached the trading box to the upside (red box on chart),
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator turned green again,
The MACD turned up again,
The Stochastic RSI had turned back up after near bottom (the closer to bottom the better in most instances),
Trade was above the 200 MA (moving average) having just retested its support (pink on chart),
Trade was above VWAP (orange on chart),
Trade was above the intra-day trend support line (yellow line on chart).
Positive buy flow volume was increasing in to open (volume bars on chart with blue highlights),
The momentum of trade was subsequently on the bullish side,
The algorithmic model was also in agreement (shown below and to understand the model takes some study).

On conventional USOIL WTI chart, trade entry based on Fib, trading box, SQZMOM, MACD, Stoch RSI, 200 MA, VWAP, vol, momentum.

On the crude oil algorithmic charting model the following reasons were in play to confirm the long trade:

The upside price target area on the chart that had a time cycle concluding on Friday at 1:00 PM (see white arrow on chart) was most probable considering the fact that trade was above the mid trading quadrant horizontal support line (thick grey horizontal line). Which in this instance was also a primary support line for the wider time-frame for swing trading oil (which makes it a significant support area on the chart).
In futures trade the night before, oil trade had broke to the upside of the mid quad resistance area (grey horizontal line as described above and shown on chart below).
There was a hidden pivot (not shown on the algorithm charting but highlighted here for demonstration purposes in bright yellow – horizontal dotted yellow line on chart). The idea being that if trade momentum was turned up in to open that this hidden pivot was likely to be breached to the upside and would then become yet another support confirming the bias to the upside target on the model.

The algorithmic charting model price target described above is the “easy” trade signal I refer to in the title of this post. At any given time of trade intra-day we can provide the most probable price target for the coming time cycle conclusions. I won’t go in to detail here (that is a completely different article). You can read our other oil trading posts, become a member, watch our videos on how to use the oil algorithm, get some trade coaching or attend a boot camp for more details to this process.

The algorithmic charting model price target described above is the “easy” trade signal I refer to in the title of this post.

Another thought (off-topic a tad), consider the trading quadrant – there were four or five excellent long and short entry points on the model at the quad wall resistance and support areas. This week our machine trading technician is alerting to the EPIC Private Member Twitter Feed those trades (I will also continue as normal).

AND if you look at my original long entry the night prior in futures trade, that trade signal is an even easier trade signal – price was breaching the mid pivot on the trading quad of the model (gray line) which is also the wide swing trading support and resistance area of the charting.

algorithmic, trading, crude, oil, alert. chart

On algorithmic oil charting trade was based on momentum in to pivot with most probable price target up.

I then provided our members with the trade strategy (guidance) with price targets at 69.70, 69.78 and 69.80 at 9:24 AM (right after the market opened). The price targets are where there are resistance areas of the algorithm chart provided above.

Crude oil trading alert twitter feed screen shot – price targets for daytrade 69.70, 69.78, 69.80 in upside scenario.

At 9:35 AM I provided further trade strategy / guidance explaining that I was looking for a reversal in the recent trend of crude oil trade (I had distributed a 4 hour chart to our membership by email the night before that I reference in the alert).

Perspective – reversal trade scenario, if it fails extreme caution to next level down 4 hour chart (yellow TL).

At 9:40 I publish the 4 hour oil chart with intra day trade and the two trend line support areas of the chart I was watching. Providing trade guidance that if the current support was lost in trade that we were likely turning down to the next support area on the chart in the 67’s.

If this area fails 67s are in play #crude #oil #tradealerts FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO.

Below is the 4 hour USOIL WTI chart provided to members that shows the general trend line support area of crude oil trade.

Crude oil lines on 4 hour chart FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #OOTT.

At 9:42 AM Oct 19, 2018 (25 minutes after the trade alert long oil) the machine trading alert was posted to the Twitter feed with guidance to trim at 69.58 in trade and then possibly add to the long position at 69.58 (obviously if the indicators provided a buy signal).

Machine Oil Trade Alert – Trims initiate 69.58 with adds on intra day pull backs 942 AM – 19 Oct 2018.

The reason for the trade alert issued to members to trim long positions on oil algorithm was that trade intra-day was nearing the Fibonacci trend-line resistance area on chart model (trading quadrant wall). Trade was also nearing the peak of the algorithm trading range intra-day (the apex of the model.) These are the same reasons I exited my long trade as provided below in the next section.

Notice on the chart below trade had hit 69.75’s and the trade alert (as above) price targets for the trade strategy for the day in crude oil based on the algorithmic model were published as “price targets for day trade 69.70, 69.78, 69.80 in upside scenario.”

Reason for trim trade alert on oil algorithm – Fibonacci trendline resistance area on chart model.

At 9:45 AM I closed my trade at 69.57. Not a bad trade considering my entries at long crude oil at 68.93 with adds in 69.25’s. A 45 tick trade average in oil is a decent day trade (450.00 on 1 contract or in this instance about 4x that).

Oil trade alert – Closed 69.57 will re-renter on pull back in price or squeeze.

At 9:58 the technician trade closed on a pull back (the other half of the trade) at 69.43 – a 26 tick average. A decent trade profit, especially considering it lasted just over 30 minutes and it was low stress. It took me 12 hours to close a 45 tick trade and the tech 35 minutes to close a 26 tick trade – obviously the technician’s use of time was more efficient.

It gets worse for me though, because I thought I’d try and get a break upside primary resistance on the algorithmic oil charting. The technician followed a simple rule-set (wait for trade to prove out and then enter) and didn’t follow me in to my trade (he can’t because he is obligated to a specific rule-set for triggering trades).

Oil machine trading alert – Stop adjusted to 69.43 USOIL WTI CL_F.

The additional trade I entered I won’t detail here with screen shots etc, but I will say that it turned against me almost immediately and I should have exited the trade immediately.

As oil sold off some intra-day I held my position and added on a bounce and sold on the bounce and chiseled my way to a small loss – but a loss nonetheless. It was a waste of time.

The two primary mistakes I made in my second trade:

I entered a long trade at the resistance of the algorithmic trading model. That is not a correct way to position a trade. I closed the previous trade properly but did not start the new trade properly.
When intra day trade went against my position I should have closed for a small loss, but I did not.

There are other details and reasons for the trading decisions that were made, however, for simplicity and to keep this instructional post to a digestible size I will leave it here.

To increase your crude oil trading skill-set we have a number of tools you can use.

There is a link below to our oil trading academy page that has a number of links to articles on our site,.
You can book private online trade coaching via Skype.
Join our live trading room.
Sign on to our oil trading alert feed subscription, (alerts are on a private member Twitter feed).
Sign on to our weekly algorithm reporting that provides the algorithm model, conventional charting, guidance for the week etc.
Attend a trading boot camp (in person or online).
Request via email the videos of our most recent trading boot camp or the master class series videos (both sets are approximately 20 hours each). They are available only by email request at this time by emailing [email protected]. Soon they will be posted to our shop on website.

Thanks

Curt

Any questions let me know!

Further Reading On Our Website That Will Help You Trade Oil Successfully:

Find more posts like this one on our Oil Trading Academy Page – there you will find links to numerous oil trade strategy reports.

Subscribe to Our Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

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Article Topics: Crude Oil, Algorithmic, Trading, Strategy, Day trading,Trading Room, Alerts, Signals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

Oct 2018

Daytrading Crude Oil: Buy Sell Signals Strategy for Intra-day Sell Off Reversal.

Crude Oil Day Trading Strategies From Our Oil Trading Room Video Footage. If there is one thing we

Daytrading Crude Oil: Buy Sell Signals Strategy for Intra-day Sell Off Reversal.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy, Day Trading $CL_F, $USO, $USOIL, $WTI, Alerts, Crude Oil, Daytrading, Signals, Strategy, Trading Room Curt Melonopoly

Crude Oil Day Trading Strategies From Our Oil Trading Room Video Footage.

If there is one thing we have seen time and time again in our crude oil futures daytrading room (see previous articles) is that our EPIC Oil Algorithm model and day traders can pin-point the buy sell signals for the reversal for intra-day trend to capture a reversal in trade.

The focus of this post is to teach you how to find the intra-day bottom when daytrading crude oil. Step by step the lead trader explains what signals to watch for to simplify the process and ensure your winning strategy.

It is important to learn how to catch the bottom of sell-offs to increase your ROI on trades and capture the next move. You may have to enter a number of trades with tight stops to get a position that is set for the move, but it is worth the time if you learn how.

#DaytradingOil #OilTradingStrategy #TradeReversal # FX: $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO

Main Points of Trade Strategy Covered in this Article:

Day trading oil signals covered in the video and post below:
- EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Charting.
- Conventional Oil Charting.
- Charting Indicators; Moving averages, squeeze momentum, MACD.
- Time Cycles.
- Price Targets (intra-day and weekly).
- Trading Boxes.
- Charting Time Frames.
- Order Volume.
Short cover rally intra-day.
Entries around the edge of range.

Video Date and Description: October 17, 2018 10:25 AM – EIA Petroleum Report Live Trading Session.

Voice broadcast starts at 2:10 minutes on video.

Video Transcript Summary Highlights:

At 2:20 on video FX USOIL WTI trading 70.73 at the beginning of the session, trading on top of support at top of trading box at down side channel support.

The down channel in trade is confirming per the most recent guidance in recent reports and I am expecting that in to end of October and then up in to Christmas.

Resistance points on algorithmic model short side is most probable for winning in down trend (retracement) – areas to short pointed out on charting at 3:05 on video.

Bias was a long intra-day when report was released, but there was a surprise build today.

I usually don’t trade the first 5 mins after the EIA crude inventory numbers are released.

Example of EIA report data as posted on EPIC’s Twitter Feed:

#WeeklyPetroleumStatusReport for week ending 10/12/18 posted https://go.usa.gov/xPRx3 #oil #gasoline #diesel #heatingoil #propane #OOTT

3:40: On the oil algorithm there is a buy trigger signal intra-day at 69.97 at the mid channel support test for a daytrade.

3:50: Symmetry chart has a buy signal at 70.19 at top of oil trading box.

4:08 Trade on monthly chart is still between the 100 MA and 200 MA and I expect a break to upside or downside early November and my bias is to upside.

4:14 On the weekly wedge chart 70.00 watch very close at top of trading box, end of October time-cycle peak to bottom of wedge on chart 68.42 – that is possible.

4:45 On the daily oil chart trade intra-day is right at the pivot. 50 MA is just under price and to the upside the price intra-day was rejected at the pivot.

Don’t miss the last report on oil trade guidance I provided that guides on signals from now in to early 2019 on all charting.

5:10 Charting trend lines reviewed with time cycle peak early December in 76.00 region.

7:20 on video #EIA report comes out.

7:27 the sell-off on oil is apparent in trade with stops in oil getting taken out.

I start reviewing oil charting at this point on video for various supports to possibly take a position long.

8:50 6.5 million barrel build in crude oil inventories is discussed. 69.50 possible low in oil trade is discussed here.

9:40 Trading 73.00. Any long positions be sure to keep your position with tight stops until down to the 69.50 support range.

Top of trading box on the weekly wedge support at 69.99 is considered.

11:15 Watching chart indicators; MACD, Squeeze Momentum and Stochastic RSI on 1 minute time frame here as price is getting in to the first signal for a possible buy zone daytrade at support.

11:40 I explain that I am looking for a short cover rally for the oil daytrade and then shorting the resistance. As shorts cover price goes up, this occurs when the sell-off on the day comes to an end as oil shorts cover positions.

11:50 I explain that trade is down 3% on the day and that this is typically the area of the short covering and reversal intra-day.

12:40 As price bounces I start to look toward the upside 20 MA resistance on the 1 minute chart.

13:35 I provide guidance that we are possibly looking at 69.00 area and even 68.46 on the wedge chart.

14:50 My daytrade plan for support area and resistance areas and the intra day time cycle confirmation of up or down channel for trade is reviewed on the oil algorithm charting.

17:10 Watching the possible buy zone and 1 min chart for squeeze momentum to turn.

20:20 We are watching the pressure in oil trade in to the bottom of the trading box on the 1 minute chart and considering more stops to get ta’ken out if trade goes below the support on the trade box.

22:20 15 minute candle expires (important point of time to watch trade closely). The bottom of the trading box then is lost.

23:50 I discuss the problem created with governments manipulate price in markets (such as Trump with oil) and what will likely happen with the price of oil when the anomaly will cause a sever snap back trade in oil (also referenced earlier in video). Essentially the structure of the natural trading range of a financial instrument is manipulated.

26:00 oil starts to trade up and I’m watching for the 20 MA upside resistance test.

27:00 I explain that many traders would have taken the buy signal at the mid channel line on the chart and that I likely should have.

28:10 After 20 MA resistance has occurred and price is on the way back down to the next support and I explain where that is and that it is my possible buy area on chart.

29:25 The buy side for oil comes in and I explain that I’ve now missed two buy triggers.

42:00 I am long crude oil futures at 69.91.

44:19 I explain the 5 min candles and a place to trim the position at top of the trading box and alerting that I have trimmed my long position at 70.01 and advise that the 50 MA on the 1 min is coming. Ten minute candle expiry on watch.

45.40 I alert that there is resistance heavy intra day 70.28 range.

46.55 I close the remainder of the daytrade and look for another entry.

Below is the screen shot of my trade alert for the day trade in crude oil on the long side and my closing the position. This reflects what it looks like when you try and catch the reversal on intra-day trading.

Daytrading Crude Oil – Screen Shot of Oil Trade Alerts Feed with signals for long oil trade and closing trade.

There is more to the video, with various discussion on daytrading crude oil with what signals to watch for and there is another trade on the video also.

See video for more on related discussions.

Below is the guidance in given to the oil trading room with charts at the start of futures trading later that day.

Price targets for 900 AM Oct 18 price cycle completion intraday crude oil trade.

Daytrading Crude Oil – Price targets for 900 AM Oct 18 price cycle completion intraday crude oil trade. #daytrading #crude #oil

Buy sell trade signals at each highlighted trendline (yellow) on chart.

Daytrading Crude Oil – Buy sell trade signals at each highlighted trendline (yellow) on chart #crude #oil #daytrading

Signals for end of week price targets. Upper target bias – lead trader.

Daytrading Crude Oil – Signals for end of week price targets. Upper target bias – lead trader. #Crude #Oil #Daytrading

Thanks

Curt

Any questions let me know!

Further Reading:

5 Steps to Making a Profit in Crude Oil Trading.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100515/learn-how-trade-crude-oil-5-steps.asp

What is a ‘Trade Signal’:
A trade signal is a trigger for action, either to buy or sell a security or other asset, generated by analysis. That analysis can be human generated using technical indicators, or it can be generated using mathematical algorithms based on market action, possibly in combination with other market factors such as economic indicators. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade-signal.asp

Other Crude Oil Trading Reports & Videos:

Learning to Trade Oil Links on our Site and/or YouTube.

Crude Oil Trading Strategies: This Is It. How To Trade Crude Oil’s Next Move.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy – How I Will be Trading Oil in to Time Cycles.

Oil Trading Room – Oil Trading Signals with Lead Trader (plus video).

Crude Oil Trading Room – Member Oil Trade Signals / Alerts for Trading the EIA Report (w/ video).

Oil Trade Alerts: How We Knew Where Oil Sell-Off Bottom Was in Advance. Crude Oil Trading Strategy.

Crude Oil Trading Face-Off Results “Pro Trader” (Man) vs. EPIC Oil Algorithm (Machine Trading Tech)

Oil Trading Alerts Live Video w EPIC Oil Algorithm #EIA Report #Oil #Trading #Algorithm #Alerts $USOIL $WTI $CL_F

“The Nut Hand” Today’s Huge Oil Trade Win. Exactly How It Was Done. How I Knew & How You Can Too.

CRITICAL Oil Trade. Weekly Timing. EPIC Oil Algorithm Channel $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTrading #EIA

Overnight Oil Trade | Trading Plan in Detail | EPIC Oil Algorithm $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OIL $USO #Alerts

No Crystal Ball? Watch this… EPIC Oil Algorithm #EIA $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm June 21, 2017 (video).

Oil Trading Room – How to Use Oil Algorithm Chart & Recent Trades June 29, 2017 (video).

Here we unlock historical member reports at intervals after time cycles have expired for traders that are learning to trade oil. When you clock on link scroll down at landing page on blog section you will be transferred to so that you can get to reports that are unlocked over time: https://compoundtrading.com/category/epic-the-oil-algo-chart-report/

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