Good morning traders!
RE: Premarket Trading Note
There is a personal journal entry here on my not so private platform, some reflection on where we’ve come and are going;
A few years back (one instance) I was sharing what was coming, how? We know the structural nature of the instruments of trade in global financial markets. This is key to directional bias and positioning. This is how we've turned (timed) the ship as we move through this event. https://t.co/cAyPjwP6ug
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) March 19, 2020
Thank you for your patience with some of the challenges during this COVID event.
The live trading room problem we have experienced and our traders / clients have experienced we now know to be one of server capacity at Click Meeting. Because of all the online workers this has been an intermittent issue. If you continue to see the error message simply clear your cache history, reboot and re-enter the room. At times there could be a wait. We have been told they are upgrading server capacity now. An example of what the COVID event has done as an inconvenience.
The swing trading alerts and reporting – I am processing the written report still from Sunday’s webinar, it has taken a few days longer than expected. But you do have the videos from Sunday so this is good. Nevertheless, the markets are still not structurally right on the short or long side so this is / has not been an issue until possibly today.
We may get a few days of bullish activity here so you can expect some active trade. I’ll do what I can to get reporting out before market open today and any other needed will be out to you later tonight.
The written reporting part of the Sunday webinar video delay has been in large part to personal challenges I have had this week as a result of COVID.
For example, mid day Wednesday all of a sudden I was told we were locally going in to lock down. I wasn’t properly prepared so we have a flurry of activity yesterday and completed our required needs such as getting cash, water, basic supplies etc. I still am not sure exactly what stage of lock down my community is in other than only essential services are open as of today. So we’ll see, but we’re ready for the most part, hopefully my time / focus can be laser pointed to the markets going forward – I think we’re good to go.
In my public journal on my Twitter feed I said that this market will turn eventually and the opportunity is big therein. However, this could be a multi year process, nobody knows.
Bias to shorting structural resistance areas of whatever we’re trading is key until the virus has a solution, don’t forget this no matter how happy the markets appear.
All longs should be small with tight stops.
There is also a note in my journal on Twitter about the machine trade, we’re out the other side of yet another stage / shock in development and can’t imagine anything being a bigger shock to handle in future. And we’ve coded breakers anyway, so we’re good to go. Update white paper soon.
Anyway, expect trading to be more active very soon (and yes I know I’ve been saying this for a number of days) but expectation and $STUDY is key because missing the moves isn’t great. Point is, we’ve come through a difficult shock and now I see it highly probable we can see some great returns going forward as the markets move through the next stages of this event.
The big shorts we’ve had we remain in at 10% of the original size (long VIX, long OVX oil volatility, short SPY NIKE WYNN MASTERCARD and miscellaneous others). Timing was fantastic.
So we’ll be looking for rallies we can short and themes for long positions we can garner gains. Gold Silver Bitcoin Natural Gas we’re still looking for structural bottoms and hopefully we can start adding to Natty long swing and BTC long swing and get back in to the Gold and Silver trade soon.
Have to get in to $STUDY now to be sure our swing trading set ups are totally ready for the range at hand and I’ll see you in trading room. If there are intermittent outages we will be alerting either way.
And again, any of the reporting not complete by market open will be completed this evening, I have cleared my schedule. Also of note, the free view period on the swing trade alert feed will end when this new reporting is out / prior to, so if you’re previewing that alert feed it will go dark sometime today. Join us on the swing trade alerts service (click here) feed for the next cycle in the markets, we’d love to have you along for the ride!
Oh, and remember, Sunday Swing $STUDY sessions continue 7 – 11 PM each Sunday while we $STUDY to prepare all swing trade set ups. We’re 3 sessions in now and likely will do close to 10 session weeks. If you want to join us in the Swing Trade Study Webinars click here:
Thanks again.
Curt
EPIC v3 Crude Oil Trading Software Updates, A Follow-Up to Last Week’s Note on February 2nd.
RE: Software Drawdown Protocols vs Expected Returns and Oil Trade Alerts.
Good day traders,
Last weeks note (if you have not read it) can be found here;
EPIC v3 Crude Oil Code Updates: Drawdown & Short Selling Protocols $CL_F $USO #machinetrading
Since the Feb 2 note I have had some questions from our clients that I suspect others have also, so I a summarizing responses from those questions below.
Our Primary Objective
The goal in our development is now limiting draw-downs, we know the software works and that is not at issue, at issue is the size of potential draw-down.
Our primary objective is to find the range of “throttle” in the software that provides a consistent return with the least volatility in ROI.
Draw-down Protocol “Events”
The software is designed to trade on historical structures, trade set-ups, order flow and more – find details in the most recent white paper update can be found here.
Specifically to draw-down protocols, in my last note I described the change in code to be throttled 50% (limiting potential downside to 50% of what is described in the white paper). I also explained that if required we would throttle it again another 50% of its most recent setting.
Last week crude oil seemed to be basing from a technical perspective and the software (considering the chop) did well, however, we were not comfortable with the potential draw-down risk in the “event” driven chop.
At issue specifically are market “events”, such as with the recent virus event out of China. Event periods will potentially cause draw-downs, our objective is to avoid this volatility.
As of today we have done that – throttled the draw-down protocol again.
The reason is simple, our objective now is to limit unnecessary draw-down percentages to the point that we can allow the software to run without concern to draw-downs even if that limits potential returns. For now this is the case and as explained previously if we open the throttle at all we will advise our clients well in advance.
In practical terms this means that the software size held is limited intra-day when in draw-down and the range is limited. The range is not changed from previous, being one full “quad” and/or “channel” range on the EPIC Algorithm Model but the size held is limited to near 1/10 size. The size can very from approximately 1/10 to 3/10 size but the software will “flash” in and out any adds with near zero range stops executing at each key support in a draw-down.
Oil Trade Alerts
This will at times cause the oil trade alerts feed to be very active but yet at times will be very silent as the software will only execute the highest probability trades also.
This represents the tightest throttle possible in our code.
Expected Returns vs. Draw-Down Risk
Through development we have had plateaus of code structure ranging from 20% – 150% ROI expectation and we even looked toward 300% being possible.
However, there is a volatility to potential draw-down that comes with higher expectation of ROI. This has to be balanced with account size and risk tolerance.
Our objective is to code software that has limited draw-down with highest ROI on specifically 10 contract size accounts. As explained previously, 30 contract and higher accounts this is much different.
At the current throttle setting our estimation of returns is somewhere between 40 – 80% per year (likely closer to 40%) with very littler risk to the down-side as we have run the software in this throttle range prior for some time and this is the ROI expectation. The variance in ROI expectation (40%- 80%) is in consideration of market conditions and not how we expect the software to run.
After the software has run for a considerable time at this level of “throttle” we will look at releasing the “throttle”, but this will be only considered after some time and again I emphasize that our clients will be notified well in advance.
Being as transparent as I can, the reason for this is motivated by the fact that we have been in development for near 4 years and there is a point where returns need to be the norm and not volatility in development. We need to run a low risk environment for some time now as development has been costly. When we have recouped development costs and put some profit back in to the project we can then look at further development and associated risk.
Our next white paper update will reflect the content of these updates notes.
Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
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Article topics; crude, oil, trading, machine trading, algorithm
Part I of Our Crude Oil Trading Strategies Article for this Week of Trade (UNLOCKED).
Crude oil was trading in an uptrend channel on a sixty minute chart time frame since October 3 2019 until January 7, 2020.
Part II of this oil trading strategy article click here (Premium).
The sell-off is now over 1400 points from high 65.00 dollar range in early January to 51.25 on FX USOIL WTI at time of writing.
The 60 minute oil chart below shows the channel trend lines and sell-off.
The 60 minute oil chart below shows the channel trendlines and sell-off.
The Set-Up.
At some point oil will bounce, how far it bounces depends on a number of technical and fundamental factors that we will look at in detail in Part II of this article (Premium).
The primary basic set-up as I see it includes an over-shoot to the downside at this point considering historical price extensions for crude oil trade (technically speaking) and obviously the Corona virus scare coming out of China has given oil traders reason to take considerable risk off here.
But it will bounce.
We will be looking for a snap-back trade at minimum in the range of 400 ticks at this point, but this range of snap back could be significantly more if oil continues to sell off this week.
On the swing trade side (consideration) I wouldn’t start a swing until you see a considerable trending channel form on lower time – frames. The time frame you choose depends on your trading style, risk, size management and time-frame. Here again, in Part II of this post we will look at those levels in more detail.
We will also look at daytrading levels to watch closely.
Whichever way you look at it a significant opportunity for a long snap-back trade is setting up here and could occur this week.
The monthly crude oil chart that I shared publicly earlier this evening below shows a probable bounce area in the region of 49.50s on FX USOIL WTI.
Crude oil monthly chart suggests 49.50s possible for bounce. $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT $SCO $UCO #OOTT
Crude oil monthly chart suggests 49.50s possible, areas of support and resistance noted FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #OOTT
If you have an interest in how our software will be trading and alerting and recent developments with its structure of trading protocols an article was released earlier today you can find at this link here:
EPIC v3 Crude Oil Code Updates: Drawdown & Short Selling Protocols $CL_F $USO #machinetrading
Part II of this Article (Premium) is available here:
If you would like to receive more free trading set-up articles like this one, subscribe to our free newsletter service here:
Join our mailing list for free trading set-ups, market news, special events and promo codes.
Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Article Topics; Crude, Oil, Trading, Strategies, FX, USOIL, WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UWT, $DWT, $SCO, $UCO, #OOTT
Itinerary for Day One – Everything I Know About Trading Crude Oil | Special Webinar Event | Jan 5 & 12: 12 PM-4 PM (Two Part Series Available Online Live or Recorded Video) #OOTT $CL_F $USO
Hello oil traders!
Today we start a new webinar series for how to trade crude oil. This series will cover everything I know and how our EPIC v3 machine trade is coded with 8770 instructions to achieve current returns of 80% – 140% per annum (projected based on current performance) and more than 90% win rate.
Today’s itinerary is simple, I will show you how I prepare for success in my trading week for crude oil
- We will review all the charts I use for oil trade. Algorithmic and conventional charting.
- Review of fundamentals and news flow in global oil markets.
- Key resistance and support areas of trade to watch.
This will be an organic insiders look in to how I prepare for oil trade each week. I have always coached and taught this way, completely organic. Many of my students have told me they appreciate the approach.
So you will get a first hand look at how I access the charting, update the charting, prepare my oil trading plan for the week and more.
The next webinar in this series will begin to cover more specific rules of trade for daytrading and swing trading oil.
Important Notes:
I am located in a large home and my office area is right in the middle of the main living area, so be prepared for back ground noise. The next location I will be sure to position myself in a quiet office in the home.
I intend to cover everything I know and teach you about trading crude oil in the best way I can. To accomplish this, I will be doing two primary webinars, one this week (today) and one next week the same time. HOWEVER, if there is more content to cover than time allows I will supplement with more webinars that I will record in my private time in the evenings and I will forward these videos to the class also.
In the event of an internet outage or some other unforeseen event, I will re-do the webinar of the day in the evening hours between 1 AM EST and 5 AM EST and send that video to the students.
Questions will be handled via email, send in your questions to [email protected] and I will answer the questions live in the webinar.
Thank you,
Curtis
If You Missed Out, You Can Order Webinar Recordings Here:
Webinar Article Promo Detail:
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Article Topics; crude, oil, trading, webinar, teaching, coaching, strategies, how to, itinerary