Part Three of What They Won’t Tell You and How We Daytrade Crude Oil Against the Machines
“And there you have it, the power of machine AI trading in crude oil futures.”
In part 2 of this series on day trading crude oil, we left you here (the chart below), price of oil had moved through the structured chart model and had taken out the one price target before the ultimate target at the top of the structure. At each leg in this recent oil rally from lows I’ve shown you in this series the chart model we are using on the one hour time frame (we use all time frames). I also provided screen shots of the oil trade alerts, oil trading room, charting, guidance and various other commentary we provide our clients.On April 30 at 12:01:49 (date stamp on chart below) my commentary was that crude oil had met the second to last or final price target in the structure and that tomorrow (Thursday) we could expect oil to continue rally in to the ultimate price target prediction at 1:00 PM.
Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow.
Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts
As this was happening I was tweeting about it live on my public facing personal Twitter feed, below is a link to the thread:
its a massive game of go on various time-frames with entities competing with various amounts of liquidity all competing for dominant positioning, the dominant teams determine the time frame in play through liquidity, they’re in control,
its a massive game of go on various time-frames with entities competing with various amounts of liquidity all competing for dominant positioning, the dominant teams determine the time frame in play through liquidity, they're in control,
so the game is find the time-frame and use the model they’re using, but it’s all done with machines making those decisions and computer scientists constantly updating code, its a massive war game of techies competing for dominance, that’s oil trade in today’s world #OOTT $CL_F
its a massive game of go on various time-frames with entities competing with various amounts of liquidity all competing for dominant positioning, the dominant teams determine the time frame in play through liquidity, they're in control,
And then in to the time cycle peak the next afternoon, this happened…
“And there you have it, the power of machine AI trading in crude oil futures.”
Price target hit right on time for the right price, perfectly in to oil settlement at 2:30 PM on Thursday.
NOW, it is important to note that the chart model was originally calling for the 1:00 PM one hour candle and not the 2:00 candle, but if you look at the chart below the time cycle peak (noted with vertical blue dashed line on chart) moved over to the 2:00 timing. This happens with Trading View charting, the timing slowly moves over a period of days.
So the hit was not only perfect to the timing and price but hit at exactly 2:30 which is half way exactly through the 2:00 one hour candle. It couldn’t have been a better alerted price target hit.
And there you have it, the power of machine AI trading in crude oil futures #oiltradealerts
What made it even more exciting for us in the oil trading roomwas that price had started to come off strong as it neared the time cycle and I thought (as I know other traders did) ah okay there we go we’re not going to hit the price target, and then right before 2:30 the price of crude oil took off in grand style and hit the target – price rallied 300 points in about 30 minutes.
Machine programs were identified and the volatile rally ran up and didn’t stop until the price target was hit, right on time. It was a crazy day trading session in crude oil.
The comment from one observer on my Twitter feed made me laugh:)
“That’s fucking incredible.”
So we got a rally from 9.90s to 19.60s and it was not only strong but very structured and we called it days in advance.
How does this benefit a trader? Using time cycles and structured chart models help an oil trader (swing trader and day trader) significantly with strategy for bias of trade size, risk management, directional bias of price in trend and more.
Some options traders in our group really like this work. Swing traders like this for trimming profit at all the decisions along the way as the charts are marked for support and resistance areas of trade. How you trade it is up to you.
When we alert the set-up and our trade entries we do our best to provide our day traders and swing traders with guidance to directional bias, support and resistance areas of trade to watch and more. But ultimately it is a much different thing to run the technical analysis than it is to trade it, or even code software to trade the price of oil.
Trading isn’t easy, especially something like crude oil, but with the right critical thinking and best in class chart models to form a solid trade strategy it does help keep you on the winning side.
My goal is to build the best oil trading room and alerts service in the world for traders, it is a large task, but the hardest part of our mission is done, we can trade with the best machines in the world now. The rest should be easier.
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Part Two of What They Won’t Tell You and How We Daytrade Crude Oil Against the Machines
Below is another daytrading session disclosure of real-time oil trade alerts from our oil trading room and alert feeds.
Many in the markets will tell you that there are no crystal balls in the stock market (in this instance in commodity markets). Others will tell you that order flow is key, or storage, OPEC or whatever else. And sure, on broad time-frames there are many different indications of oil price direction that provide clues.
But when daytrading crude oil, everything, and I mean everything other than what the machine trading liquidity dominant players are doing is relavent.
Below you will see real time oil trading alerts from our private member feed, and real time guidance I provided to the oil trading room while I was trading and even public faxing tweets from my personal Twitter feed.
Sometimes I will tweet on my own public facing feed in an effort to show the trading world what is really happening to our markets, but cognitive dissonance keeps most bound to what the shiny balls on TV have to say. So I am not sure whether I’ll continue much longer in that because it’s a lot of effort and you feel like you get nowhere.
Anyway, enough of that, I’ll let the real-time alerts and trading room discussions below do the talking.
Take the time to read this carefully and the previous post you can find here:
When done think about it, spend some time reflecting on what this means for the future of the markets. Beyond just winning and having the best daytrading oil strategies there are real ramifications here.
Okay, good luck with your $STUDY, let me know if you need anything after you have reviewed the documentation below.
Let’s start here, when daytrading crude oil the most important thing you can do is know where you are in the playing field – the structure of crude oil trade within the dominant time cycle. This is key. If you know the time cycle that the dominant players (liquidity) are trading on then you can then trade along with them. This is by far the best oil trading strategy you will ever find.
From yesterday’s article (part 1) I had shared the one hour crude oil chart model and showed you exactly what the structure was and what the TIMING of the price target the dominant daytrading liquidity was targeting. This is the key to successful crude oil daytrading.
Below is the updated 1 hour daytrading oil chart. Take a look at today and yesterday (in part 1). And then read yesterday’s article closely and you will see that we knew exactly where the price of oil was going to be, in advance.
But first, the oil chart.
Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow.
You can see how the machine dominant liquidity has traded very technically toward the price target at 1:00 PM Thursday. What determines if the price target is met? At each decision along the way if retail order flow follows the dominant machines, the machines simply take price to the next decision most efficiently. It’s that simple.
So as you can see in the chart below, the daytrading action in oil has been consistently toward the price target within the chart structure.
Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts
Okay, now that you have “perspective” of the arena or battleground, let’s look at the real-time charting, trade alerts and commentary from the alert feed and oil trading room:
Below are only highlights and snippets of the discussion and guidance I provided to the oil trading room, private Twitter alert feed, charting and even public facing personal Twitter feed. To keep this article as short as possible I provide only highlights of the trade sequence below.
Screen shot of oil trading room lead trade alerting initial trade position in crude oil futures with guidance.
“Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 9:21 PM Long 16.10 2/10 personal trade will advise order flow progressive I’m going to go with it, over 16 resistance on hourly model I don’t like this time of day, but I’m going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2-% size 16.10 #oiltradealerts
Curt MelonopolyToday at 9:44 PM this trade could easily come back to 15.67 before bullish continuation imo so i’m being cautious, its the 30 min EPIC model that concerns me a bit but the 1 hour has been so strong i’m going with a possible run up with bulls, basically managing that RR and on hourly 15.74 is the diagonal TL support so in short, if it pulls back i’ll hold 2/10 re-hit 15.64 area if it gets there with an add 2/10 if that fails cut the loss, but i’m going to play it for the possible run up in to Thurs mid day so there’s some risk but possible reward is significant potential run is about 140 ticks up and risk is 60, so there’s different ways to manage that i suppose easier to manage this type of trade with CFDs than CL contracts, I may take on CFDs in near futures as an addition to my personal trading for these scenarios.”
Screen shot of oil trading room lead trade alerting initial trade position in crude oil futures with guidance #oiltradingroom
Screen shot of oil trade alerts member Twitter feed of initial entry in crude oil by lead trader.
Screen shot of oil trade alert member Twitter feed of initial entry in crude oil by lead trader #oiltradealerts
Charting shared to oil trading room.
“I don’t like this time of day, but I’m going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2/10 size 16.10 #oiltradealerts”
I don’t like this time of day, but I’m going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2-% size 16.10 #oiltradealerts
What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame.
Entries in crude oil futures are the green arrows and the red are when the trades are closed on the daytrading time-frame charting.
What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame #oiltradealerts
Another screen shot of oil trading room and the guidance I’m providing to the daytraders as we progress through trade.
Will trim at .30 if we get it here, trading 16.25 —-> Trim 1/10 16.30 hold 1.10 took the trim i want the breathing room not an easy trade 16.30 is mid range on 1 min machine model and 16.48 is top range on 1 min My stop on the 1/10 is at entry now What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame #oiltradealerts
Another screen shot of oil trading room and the guidance I’m providing to the daytraders as we go through trade #oiltradingroom
The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart.
The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart #oildaytrading
Oil trading room discussion where I am explaining where I may close this part of the trade intraday.
“I may close 16.47 if we get it, 16.45 HOD so far, don’t like the tight trading here. Closing 16.45 hold 0 chickened out don’t like the action 20 ticks on the 1/10 and 35 ticks on the 2nd 1/10 isn’t so bad for this time of night i suppose The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart #oildaytrading
this is double top on 60 min here Here’s your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame #oildaytrading”
Oil trading room discussion where I am explaining where I may close this part of the trade intraday #oiltradingroom
Here’s your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame.
Here’s your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame #oildaytrading
Oil trading room discussion explaining the technical levels to watch on a daytrading basis.
“Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through, if retail goes with them that will happen #oiltradealerts
if that happens that will be volatile there I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart, doesn’t look like I will get it though #oiltradealerts”
Oil trading room discussion explaining the technical levels to watch on a daytrading basis #oiltradingroom
Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through.
Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through #oiltradealerts
Another screen image of the crude oil trading room explaining machine order flow buying oil intraday.
“Jeremy is reporting micro programs buying all opportunities at weekness all the way through intra day so far #oilttrading
problem is timing intra day, they only have so much time to move this I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.”
Another screen image of the crude oil trading room explaining machine order flow buying oil intraday #crudeoil #tradingroom
I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart.
I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart #oiltradealerts
I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.
I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.
okay, here it is, this is their push to force the squeeze intraday in to the price target in the time cycle peak.
okay, here it is, this is their push to force the squeeze intraday in to the price target in the time cycle peak #oildaytrading
You can see how they’re grinding away at each half range tier on the 1 minute oil trade time frame intraday.
You can see how they’re grinding away at each half range tier on the 1 minute oil trade time frame intraday #oiltdaytrading
Air is thin up here, this is double top on 5 min machine model – see extension arrow.
Air is thin up here, this is double top on 5 min machine model – see extension arrow #oiltradealerts
So on the 5 min timeframe bulls have lost their edge but on hourly I think they still have 20 mins.
So on the 5 min timeframe bulls have lost their edge but on hourly I think they still have 20 mins #oildaytrading
Here’s your 1 hour time frame view, looks like bulls still have some time, hard to be exact on larger timing.
Here’s your 1 hour time frame view, looks like bulls still have some time, hard to be exact on larger timing #oiltrading
And on 1 minute yet another half range zone grind through supply for continuation.
And on 1 minute yet another half range zone grind through supply for continuation #oildaytrading
Excuse me while I kiss the sky, yet another price target in the grid complete, AI power on display.
Excuse me while I kiss the sky, yet another price target in the grid complete, AI power on display #oildaytrading #OOTT $CL_F $USO
Said climax brings time cycle intraday in to completion, if retail wants it to move now they’ll have to go alone.
Said climax brings time cycle intraday in to completion, if retail wants it to move now they’ll have to go alone #oildaytrading #OOTT $CL_F $USO
Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow.
Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts
Retail left naked in the time cycle and have no idea why the air just came out.
Retail left naked in the time cycle and have no idea why the air just came out #OOTT $CL_F $USO #machinetradingoil
And on my personal Twitter feed (public facing) sometimes I’ll let the world know we’re trading to show folks how the oil trading room and alerts work.
Below is a link and if you open the link you will find the thread on Twitter, it was real-time also.
As with the charts, live trading room discussion and private Twitter alert feed above, I show only some highlights, there is much more guidance on all than you see here in this article.
“So the game is find the time-frame and use the model they’re using, but it’s all done with machines making those decisions and computer scientists constantly updating code, its a massive war game of techies competing for dominance, that’s oil trade in today’s world #OOTT $CL_F
its a massive game of go on various time-frames with entities competing with various amounts of liquidity all competing for dominant positioning, the dominant teams determine the time frame in play through liquidity, they’re in control,”
so the game is find the time-frame and use the model they're using, but it's all done with machines making those decisions and computer scientists constantly updating code, its a massive war game of techies competing for dominance, that's oil trade in today's world #OOTT$CL_F
I am hoping that with part 1 of this series and this part 2 article of exactly how we are daytrading this next leg in crude oil price from our oil trading room that you can see better how to day trade crude oil with success.
As I said in article 1 of this series:
My goal is to build the best oil trading room and alerts service in the world for traders, it is a large task, but the hardest part of our mission is done, we can trade with the best machines in the world now. The rest should be easier.
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
An Insider’s Look at Daytrading Crude Oil – Against The Machines | Live Trade Alerts Guidance by our Lead Trader in Oil Trading Room
Tonight when I sat down to my trading desk I didn’t intend to trade crude oil, but I knew that our lead Computer Scientist Jeremy had been tracking some machine liquidity sweepers in oil futures and indices markets since earlier Tuesday April 28, 2020.
So I was ready for anything.
We’ve been watching the crude oil machine order flow in the markets for the last 12 hours or so – since the AI’s showed up in flow earlier on EPIC IDENT software.
The machine programs have been slowly taking hold of the intra-day oil trading structure more and more over the course of the day on each time frame from 15 second micro daytrading charting time-frame through to 1 minute, 5 minute and 60 minute time-frames that I will show you below.
Anyway, when I sat down for my daily market prep $STUDY session I realized the machines were firing long in to some price targets on the 60 minute oil chart time-frame structure. I knew that our software wouldn’t start trade executions yet (it needs a certain amount of machine order flow to support its bias and start triggering).
So I knew the machines in crude oil futures trade were / are firing long in to a price target for Thursday 1:00 PM based on the 1 hour oil charting time-frame (from that specific algorithmic model). So I took the trade before I finished my first coffee.
By the way, we trade when the machine flow is in the markets because it becomes unfair for the competitors, in other words, our win rate skyrockets because we have intelligence the average oil day-trader does not have (unless they are employing high-end machine intelligence).
Below is one example, I just closed out the day-trade in crude oil futures you will see here.
I provide what I can (I can only show you so much) but what you will see below are the screen images from the oil trading room and oil trade alerts feed and algorithmic trading chart models that represent our machine trade for some of the time-frames. The guidance I provided the oil trading room and oil trade alert feed are included.
If you read this document carefully…
You will notice if you read this document carefully that I explained to the trading room what the machines would do in advance of it actually happening. On each time frame of trade we know what the decisions are algorithmically for the machine order flow.
I explained to the trading room what the machines would do in advance of it actually happening.
The charts below from the trade alerts and oil trading room are time stamped in the top left hand corner of the image .
I hope you enjoy the disclosure, here it is;
First the earlier trade set-up strategy commentary and guidance from the oil trading room earlier in the day discussing the upcoming time cycle in crude oil and machine order flow identified in markets.
Crude oil trading structure suggests decision for leg up or down prior to Thurs 1200 EST PM #oiltradingroom
Crude oil trading structure suggests decision for leg up or down prior to Thurs 1200 EST PM #oiltradingroom
Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified.
JeremyToday at 10:19 AM That was the strongest progressive order flow in the recent lows we have seen yet, likely machine programs in that rally. Time cycle for Thur 12:00 PM EST looks like the inflection (sometime prior). EPIC V3.1.1 was very close to firing, next rally we would expect programs to start.
Curt MelonopolyToday at 10:19 AM Nice, thanks J
JeremyToday at 11:53 AM Those SPY blocks from this morning you may see on social media people talking about, the machine programs coincide on CL progressive blocks. Same entity(s) likely.
Curt MelonopolyToday at 11:55 AM thanks J
And one of my best oil trade alerts this week was here;
luisitoToday at 1:45 PM Looking for a possible bounce from 10.00 area to 13.00s, trading 11.24 and dropping. FX USOIL WTI @Curt Melonopoly amazing call
Curt MelonopolyToday at 1:45 PM well thanks @luisito i’ll take what i can lol we’re just watching this order flow now in to settlement because there were some sweepers in earlier today CL and SPy
luisitoToday at 1:47 PM Curt: is a 400 ticks call. 100 down, 300 up.
Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified #oiltradingroom
Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified #oiltradingroom
Curt MelonopolyToday at 1:48 PM ha ya, hopefully the next is better, if we get follow through above the earlier blocks we should see 19.46 have to see if the sweeper push it
Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:32 PM
As expected: Moderate above VWAP in to settlement, reflects market action & order flow, API and EIA then likely reversal to 19.40s, we’ll watch and see if the sweepers return. Should see EPIC (I know I’ve said it last week but structure needs to be there and it seems were there)
Very technical move in crude oil, post EIA should provide exceptional trading opportunity, structure returning fast.
Very technical move in crude oil, post EIA should provide exceptional trading opportunity, structure returning fast.
If the machine bulls get their way, 19.47 Thursday 100 PM is the mark, 600 ticks, trading 13.56, 1 hr firing clean #oiltradealerts
If the machine bulls get their way, 19.47 Thursday 100 PM is the mark, 600 ticks, trading 13.56, 1 hr firing clean #oiltradealerts
Oil Trading Room alerting first trade entry – I’m going to go with this tight stops 1-10 13.59 long. #oiltradingroom
I’m going to go with this tight stops 1/10 13.59 long. Likely fails but I’m going to try and build above 13.56. So I’ll close under go above around that pivot. Quoting FX USOI WTI traded on CL.
Oil Trading Room alerting first trade entry – I’m going to go with this tight stops 1-10 13.59 long. #oiltradingroom
The one minute support (pivot) I am speaking about (white arrow), but they have to clear 1 hour resistance on previous chart. #oiltradealerts
The one minute support (pivot) I am speaking about (white arrow), but they have to clear 1 hour resistance on previous chart. #oiltradealerts
Hoping my long position sees a bit of a squeeze in oil futures here in to 1030 PM EST time cycle peak on 5 min timeframe #oiltradealerts
Hoping my long position sees a bit of a squeeze in oil futures here in to 1030 PM EST time cycle peak on 5 min timeframe #oiltradealerts
I marked the price targets for intra day machine route bias to the 19.47 price target Thursday. See chart. #oiltradealerts
I marked the price targets for intra day machine route bias to the 19.47 price target Thursday. See chart. #oiltradealerts
Screen capture of actual oil trade alert from private member feed – 14.19 is the next resistance trading… #oiltradealerts
14.19 is the next resistance trading 14.05 so i may close 14.18 area and see if we pull back and then go again.
Screen capture of actual oil trade alert from private member feed – 14.19 is the next resistance trading… #oiltradealerts
Bulls are taking some profit at 14.04 recent double top area of price, so we’ll see how this shapes up or down #oiltradealerts
Bulls are taking some profit at 14.04 recent double top area of price, so we’ll see how this shapes up or down #oiltradealerts
Based on the first symmetrical extension on the 1 min your new pivot is approx 13.74, so if bulls are firing on 1 min this should hold.
Based on the first symmetrical extension on the 1 min your new pivot is approx 13.74, so if bulls are firing on 1 min this should hold.
If your 1 min symmetrical pivot support doesn’t hold then look to 5 min 20 MA for bulls to go or not in to 1030 timing #oiltradealerts
If your 1 min symmetrical pivvot support doesn’t hold then look to 5 min 20 MA for bulls to go or not in to 1030 timing #oiltradealerts
Screen capture image of oil trading alert private feed where I close the oil trade for a win and explain decisions #oiltradingalert
Screen capture image of oil trading alert private feed where I close the oil trade for a win and explain decisions #oiltradingalert
Screen shot image captured of actual oil trading room discussion from lead trader and guidance for trade plan #oiltraderoom
I am going to let them go from here without me and on a pull back (likely after time cycle peak) then I will re-enter long for the next leg up.
I got a 58 point move there on that time cycle, symmetrical set-up s I’m happy with that considering time of day.
I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don’t make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly.
Screen shot image captured of actual oil trading room discussion from lead trader and guidance for trade plan #oiltraderoom
I got my bullish extension on 1 min symmetrical move as planned, lets see if I get a pull back, still time n to 1030 time cycle for more #oiltradealerts
I got my bullish extension on 1 min symmetrical move as planned, lets see if I get a pull back, still time n to 1030 time cycle for more #oiltradealerts
You can see how the squeeze is occurring in crude oil in to the time cycle at 1030 PM as it did at 730 PM #oiltradealerts
You can see how the squeeze is occurring in crude oil in to the time cycle at 1030 PM as it did at 730 PM #oiltradealerts
I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don’t make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly. #oiltradealerts
I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don’t make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly. #oiltradealerts
Over 14.19 in crude oil trade on FX USOIL WTI 14.56 then 14.80 are your next intraday resistance #oiltrading #daytrading
Over 14.19 in crude oil trade on FX USOIL WTI 14.56 then 14.80 are your next intraday resistance #oiltrading #daytrading
You can see how bulls in oil trade are firing off the trajectory arrow toward the price targets I’m alerting, when it fails watch out #oiltradealerts
You can see how bulls in oil trade are firing off the trajectory arrow toward the price targets I’m alerting, when it fails watch out #oiltradealerts
Bulls only have 5 prime minutes left (10 total) and trajectory for 14.56 price target comes in at 1057PM so they need a squeeze #oiltradealerts
Bulls only have 5 prime minutes left (10 total) and trajectory for 14.56 price target comes in at 1057PM so they need a squeeze #oiltradealerts
They have 4 minutes left to 5 min candle expiry, at 1035 if price target not hit the advantage goes to bears short term #oildaytrading
They have 4 minutes left to 5 min candle expiry, at 1035 if price target not hit the advantage goes to bears short term #oildaytrading
At 103230 they are firing off half time on 5 min candle decision half range pivot support, if it fails they likely fail here #oiltradealerts
At 103230 they are firing off half time on 5 min candle decision half range pivot support, if it fails they likely fail here #oiltradealerts
At turn of 1035 PM 5 min candle first signs of break down are appearing #machinetradingoil
At turn of 1035 PM 5 min candle first signs of break down are appearing #machinetradingoil
If the break down continues, the first real buy trigger for the bulls again is 200MA on 1 min likely at 1100PM #daytradingcrudeoil
If the break down continues, the first real buy trigger for the bulls again is 200MA on 1 min likely at 1100PM #daytradingcrudeoil
Here’s your 200 MA price hit on the crude oil 1 minute time frame, just below is vwap and 1 min range support #oildaytrading
Here’s your 200 MA price hit on the crude oil 1 minute time frame, just below is vwap and 1 min range support #oildaytrading
And now the pinch between the 20 MA to upside of price and 200 MA support lower than price for a decision #oiltrading #technicalanalyis
And now the pinch between the 20 MA to upside of price and 200 MA support lower than price for a decision #oiltrading #technicalanalyis
I am sure you can see from the trade action in the oil futures markets how it is best to have machine trade intelligence on your side if you are going to trade crude oil.
My goal is to build the best oil trading room and alerts service in the world for traders, it is a large task, but the hardest part of our mission is done, we can trade with the best machines in the world now. The rest should be easier.
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Real Time Crude Oil Trade Alerts, How Time-Cycles Work – Crude Oil Day-Trading Strategies April 22, 2020.
Daytrading crude oil is not easy, having an edge helps. Time cycles are an edge and algorithmic models also help considerably.
Below is a documented real-time oil trade I took earlier this morning – alerting the trade, charting and guidance to our oil trading room members with a series of trade alerts.
The actual oil trade alerts, oil trading room discussion, guidance and charting is below.
The charting includes our EPIC v3 Machine Trading 30 minute algorithmic model and the 1 minute daytrading chart model that our software uses.
In this instance this was a day trade intended to develop in to an intra-week swing trade.
This trading set-up and the strategy itself is in play live right now.
Oil traders may find this interesting for Wednesday April 22,2020 trade.
See below.
A real-time example of how time-cycles work in crude oil trade Direct hitFireBow and arrow
Curt MelonopolyToday at 3:14 AM
Starting a swing long 1/10 size 11.00 with stop 10.39 (on FX USOIL WTI) traded on CL, entering other side of quad on EPIC 30 Min – Curt Personal intraday swing trade.
Will advise.
obviously a high risk trade
Curt MelonopolyToday at 3:14 AM Starting a swing long 1/10 size 11.00 with stop 10.39 (on FX USOIL WTI) traded on CL, entering other side of quad on EPIC 30 Min – Curt Personal intrad day swing trade. Will advise. obviously a high risk trade pic.twitter.com/ccjdMukzym
If I actually get my way here I will trim 25% at 11.39, 11.62, 11.87 and have stop just above entry hoping the 25% remaining gets the turn up for more.
There, got my profit trims and holding 25% of position with stops above entry #oiltradealerts That worked well.
If I actually get my way here I will trim 25% at 11.39, 11.62, 11.87 and have stop just above entry hoping the 25% remaining gets the turn up for more. There, got my profit trims and holding 25% of position with stops above entry #oiltradealerts That worked well. pic.twitter.com/DfucPyh9Kl
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Important Note: Oil Traders, Alerts, Trading Room, Machine Trading
Good afternoon traders,
There is a new white paper coming out later that will address this and other points.
But for timely reasons I want to share one important update with you relating to oil trade alerts.
We have recently completed another software update for EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading.
Specifically, it is that the base contract account size traded going forward (and alerted) is a 30 contract account, or at minimum an account 300,000.00 USD or larger trading CL continuous contracts.
Any account smaller than 10 contracts (if traded on CL futures not specifically CFDs because this is different) is at significant risk considering the recent market action. Machine entities around the globe are adjusting, this is obvious in order flow.
The alerts will then reflect a 30 contract account size. In other words, Long 1/30 size etc will be represented in the alerts. This will also allow those trading CFD’s to better manage sizing relative to the alerts.
The bottom line is that an account trading CL futures at 30 contracts via EPIC v3 software is considered very low risk (if any), an account at 10 contracts possesses moderate risk and anything less significant risk – in this market environment.
Any questions please let me know.
The revised white paper will however likely answer any questions you may have.
Thanks
Curt
Reminder to existing clients! If you are on Whatsapp and want to have the fastest direct access to my trading desk send your whatsapp number to [email protected] and I’ll connect to you there also.
Most Recent EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading White Paper:
Swing Trading Study Guide Newsletters (After Trade In-Depth Reviews Including Set-Up Identification, Trading Plan, Sizing, Risk Management, ROI and more).
7:49 AM EST Friday Crude Oil Started Sharp Intra-Day Sell-Off Dropping 200 Points in 40 minutes. We Went Long Live in Oil Trading Room and Alerting Buys in To Sell-Off and Nailed the Low Price and High Price of Day.
In the article below (one of the most important we have written) we detail the oil day trading strategy, trade positions (mapped on a chart) we executed short and long, screen capture images of oil trade alerts feed, technical charts, strategy comments, and live oil trading room raw video.
The Strategy Set-Up.
Thursday night going in to Friday morning (in CL futures trade) we alerted members by email and oil trade chat room (Discord server) there was a high probability of a significant sell-off coming in the over-night futures trading session (in to regular US market open). It was a channel resistance and symmetry set-up.
Oil did plunge in to the early morning on USA-China Trade War Escalation;
This set-up strategy we had been alerting to our members for some time as the trading channel resistance on the 30 minute chart time-frame was being challenged by oil bulls.
The key point is that there was also a significant algorithmic chart model symmetrical set-up developing, hence the alerts and trade guidance in the oil trade room (broadcast by voice).
You can see in the chart below the large red arrow and the green lighter arrows pointing down to a support area on the 30 minute chart. The red arrow is the area on the chart model to watch for the possible short selling set-up (as alerted) and the green arrows are the possible trajectory of the short trade.
The symmetry our models identified targeted this area of the chart model and time.
If you review the live oil trading room raw footage you will hear about the short set-up and strategy (which I know is cumbersome because we haven’t had time to splice short time frame snippets for you yet). But if you’re serious about wanting to become an expert oil trader the time is well invested.
Below is one alert to our members (screen shot capture) from the oil trading room. Our software did fire but this set-up is still being tweaked in the code (it was only a small win), but the subsequent long side oil futures buys were exceptional in that we nailed the low of day, each low of day and high of day thereafter.
Thursday night in to Friday (in CL futures trade) alerted members oil trade chat room high probability significant sell-off in over-night futures trade.
Thursday night in to Friday (in CL futures trade) alerted members oil trade chat room high probability significant sell-off in over-night futures trade
As mentioned, we executed a short position prior to the sell-off (see trade locations below) but closed the position shortly before the 200 point tumble in oil price (the v3 EPIC software IDENT program had also alerted us to the order-flow turning down).
The code in our software is slowly being tweaked to move with the sharp intra-day crude oil sell-offs, it won’t be long and we will be hitting most sell-offs (for those that are unaware we now nail near all low of day reversals so we are tweaking the code for the other side of the trade, the sell-offs).
In the article below we highlight how we hit the low of day trade during the sell-off, how we hit the low in each bounce thereafter and how we closed our final oil long position at the high of day.
When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
Trades and the strategy therein are alerted to a live trade broadcast room by voice (by a leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in a Discord private member server.
The Trade Strategy Set-Up – Buying Crude Oil in to the Intra-day Sell-Off.
As mentioned above, the real key to this oil trade strategy story (the set-up and trades on the day) wasn’t the short side but how we managed to nail the bottom on a vicious sell-off, then nail each subsequent bottom and high of day while buying oil in to the sell-off plunge.
Key take-away rules for trading long in to the sell-off:
Know the technical support on all chart time-frames (conventional and algorithmic).
Know which support areas are most probable areas for an intra-day reversal by way of historical back-tested data.
When order flow and price action reverse (bulls are buying and shorts are covering during the sell-off) is a key indicator that the low-of-day in oil trade may be in place.
When systematic market wide machine liquidity starts progressive buy programs, this is the low of day near 100% of the time (IDENT program). This is by far our best intra-day crude oil trading signal (proprietary and in development).
Manage trade sizing and sequence – releasing size of trade, adds, closing position etc.
Manage stops properly and know when to hold some or most of your trade size.
Below is a screen image capture of some oil chat room guidance alerts as the sell-off progressed in premarket and then the buying started at support (see other screen images below).
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 8:04 AM Price target hit on that previous alert, we didn’t hold through the whole range as it was later than predicted, JeremyToday at 5:03 AM Sell 55.37 1/10 on order flow protocol, 1st price target 54.80 6:30 AM. Will advise.
Example of algorithmic modeling (30 min doodle), symmetry alert at red arrow from earlier, follow green arrows down to bottom of channel. nice move
Example of algorithmic modeling (30 min), symmetry alert red arrow from earlier, green arrows down bottom channel.
What are the Probabilities of Trading The Low of Day, Each Low at Each Bounce and Closing High of Day?
Machine learning (as it applies to trading) is not like human learning and execution in that once the software begins to master a set-up it will rarely lose that similar set-up in future and it will increasingly extract more profit each time.
If you don’t want to use machine learning to enhance your trading (engaging a firm like our partners at Sovoron) then perhaps you can learn from the machine software (via alerts or oil trading room) to enhance your own oil day trading strategy.
Some of our clients do both – they have machine learning automation and mechanical human executed day trading in their over-all strategy.
Either way, below is a summary time-line with screen image shots of how it was done.
Below is a chart showing the oil trades for the day that were alerted to the feeds and broadcast live in the oil trading room.
Location (plotted on 1 minute chart) of EPIC v3 crude oil trade alerts. Green arrows on the chart are long entries and red are selling executions of trade #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USOIL $USO #machinelearning #oiltradealerts
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Curt MelonopolyToday at 8:39 AM Sell 1/10 53.66 hold 0
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Sell 1/10 53.65 hold 1
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Curt MelonopolyToday at 8:27 AM Long 2/10 53.56 tight stops
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Price target hit on that previous alert, we didn’t hold through the whole range as it was later than predicted, “JeremyToday at 5:03 AM Sell 55.37 1/10 on order flow protocol, 1st price target 54.80 6:30 AM. Will advise.”
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 JeremyToday at 7:50 AM Cover 55.19 1/10 hold 0
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 JeremyToday at 5:03 AM Sell 55.37 1/10 on order flow protocol, 1st price target 54.80 6:30 AM. Will advise.
Screen capture image of oil trade alerts signalling buys long crude oil as oil plunged.
As day trading oil continued Friday the image below shows a screen shot of the trade alerts sent out to members. Each low of day in trade was bought by our lead trader and software and profit trimmed and sold as price of oil went up.
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Long 2/10 53.53 sold 1/10 53.61
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Curt MelonopolyToday at 11:04 AM Long 1/10 54.00
As daytrading oil continued Friday the image shows the trade alerts sent out to members.
Screen shot of oil trade alerts in to the end of the day trading sequence on Friday from oil trading room. The last trade alerted was the high of day which concluded trade for the day in the oil trading room.
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:21 PM Sold 54.11 1/10 hold 0
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Curt MelonopolyToday at 1:11 PM Sell 1/10 53.47 holds 1
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Curt MelonopolyToday at 1:04 PM Long 53.32 3/10, sell 1/10 .37, sell 1/10 .40 , hold 1 add and 1 hold for 2/10 hold
EPIC Alerts @OilAlerts_CT · Aug 23 Curt MelonopolyToday at 11:19 AM Sold 1/10 53.86 hold 1
Screen shot of oil trade alerts in to the end of the day trading sequence on Friday from oil trading room.
Intra-Day Time Cycles Are Key for Oil Traders.
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 11:45 AM Sell off cam in perfect at 11:00 mid time cycle inflection
Screen shot from oil trading room shows 5 min model time cycle inflection for buy and sell in daytrade strategy
So How Did We Nail the Short Oil Prediction in Over Night / Premarket Session, Nail The Low of Day Price Target Trade, Subsequent Low of Day Trades and High of Day Trade?
We have thousands of rules in our algorithmic models to which each rule is weighted against the others, so this is no short answer.
But if you read the article above closely, you look at the alerts and if you are a member look at all the other charting and information sent out prior to and during this trade set-up you will begin learning (or add to your oil day trading strategy too-kit) many excellent additions to help you increase your profits.
The live trading room videos also help, reviewing past articles will help you, having all the conventional and algorithmic charts available to you for immediate reference during intra-day trade, trade coaching helps (I’ve never had a complaint) and being in the live trading room is key if you are really serious about learning our rule-set.
The oil trading rule-set that our v3 EPIC machine learning software uses is one of the best in the world, we know this because we did the hard work in back-testing every trading rule it uses and designing a trading strategy that weighs the rules one against the other.
The win rate, the return rate, the stability and the precision of the oil trading software is evidence of this fact.
You now just have to put in your part of the work – we have already done the heavy lifting for you.
Welcome to the matrix.
Live Oil Trading Room Video.
Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole day-trading session (we run the live video feed from 7am to 5pm EST). To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his/her oil trade strategy / thinking as he/she and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time stamp on the oil trade alert, chart, trading room screen capture image etc in this or any other report and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.
If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Remember also that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
In One Hour of Crude Oil Trade Wednesday Afternoon (After EIA Reported Inventories) Price Ran Up 134 Ticks, And We Knew The Bottom.
A Simple Crude Oil Intraday Trading Strategy.
Below Are Tips for Intra-Day Reversal Trading Strategies and How To Determine Price Targets For Locating Bottom of Day Price.
Nail the bottoms in crude oil and you have the single most profitable strategy there is in trading crude oil. The intra-day reversals and subsequent run up in price move fast. Intra-day reversals can be precisely executed with an extremely high win rate (our v3 EPIC win rate is well over 90%) and you can build a profitable trading career with that one set-up.
The reversal trade in crude oil trade in this report and video is a real-world example from our oil trading room.
The intra-day oil futures short selling strategy / sequence from yesterday’s article concludes here also (see below).
We pick up the story in this article with us closing the winning oil short position / sequence from the Tuesday (selling in to the Trump news) and then on Wednesday (after the weekly EIA report) turning our focus toward pin-pointing likely oil trade reversal areas intra-day to possibly catch a bullish run-up trend intra-day after the sell-off.
The strategy worked. We caught the bottom near to the penny and we had the price target for the high of day within pennies also. Execution wasn’t perfect, but we are winning consistently and the v3 software is performing over expectation.
Exactly how we determined the most likely bottom area on the day and high of day price target is in the raw video feed from the live trading room (see below) and in this quick post.
With the limited time I have available to write this article in premarket, I will provide some of the tips you can use to locate bottoms for your daytrading strategies. For more on this subject, refer to the live trading room videos on YouTube and/or other articles we have published on this topic.
If there is one area of crude oil trade we know well, it is how to locate intra-day bottoms (low price of day) in advance to assist with a traders day trade strategy. The v3 EPIC Machine Trade Software has an extremely high success rate in this specific area of oil trade analysis.
When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
Trades and the strategy therein are alerted to a live trading room by voice (by a leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in Discord private member server.
First I will share the guidance from the oil trading room server, alert feeds etc and then I’ll give you some pointers on how to locate bottoms in trade.
The raw video from the oil trading room provides significantly more detailed guidance.
Chart from oil trading room below highlights the alerted close of last short sell position in crude oil for Tuesdays trading session.
Chart from oil trading room highlights the alerted close of last short sell position in crude oil for Tuesdays trading session.
Image of oil trading alert private member feed on Twitter that shows covering the last short sell on crude oil trade.
JeremyToday at 6:11 AM Buy / cover 1/10 56.18 hold 0 but still in sequence to sell Software well green.
Image of oil trading alert private member feed on Twitter that shows covering the last short sell on crude oil trade.
The New Trading Day Starts: Oil trading room day trades alerted with price targets for reversal at intraday bottom and top.
Green arrows on chart are oil contract buys and red arrows sells, white are price targets for low and high alerted prior to trade.
Oil trading room day trades alerted with price targets for reversal at intraday bottom and top.
Screen shot image of crude oil trading chat room alerting initial buys at reversal test area, time cycle, price targets for oil intra-day
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 11:33 AM Software started buying 54.32’s HF tests It sold in to the 2/10 in to 54.50s, its in a range program now
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 11:56 AM
At this point we’re looking for a 12:45 bottom, time cycle 11:15 – 2:15, trading 54.14 machines are here fyi Preferred buys 53.93 for 54.93 PT bounce and 55.41 possible. Trading 54.29. Quoted as FX USOIL WTI Preferred buy price target 12:42:30 EST at 53.93
Screen shot image of crude oil trading chat room alerting initial buys at reversal test area, time cycle, price targets for oil intraday
Screen image from oil trading room of machine trade software nailing the bottom reversal intraday in crude oil trade and alerts.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:09 PM Long 54.13 1/10 tight stops
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:19 PM Long 2/10 add 53.96, sell 1/10 54.01, hold 2 Sold in to 54.25 hold 0
Gotta teach it to hold some.
Screen image from oil trading room of machine trade software nailing the bottom reversal intraday in crude oil trade and alerts.
Screen image from oil trading room showing first price target previously alerted being hit.
two ticks away hit 53.95 – “Preferred buy price target 12:42:30 EST at 53.93” 2 ticks off price target in that first burst
“Preferred buys 53.93 for 54.93 PT bounce and 55.41 possible. “
Screen image from oil trading room showing first price target previously alerted being hit.
Guidance in oil trading room lead trader alerting members to watch for a possible channel of trade coming.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:50 PM possible channel
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 2:25 PM right in to top of channel beauty
Guidance in oil trading room lead trader alerting members to watch for a possible channel of trade coming.
Crude oil price then goes on to near the 2nd price target from previous alert. Image of trading room.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 2:36 PM Hit 55.30 dangerously close now to 2nd price target, nice move today on that snap back reversal trade intraday
I will be on break until 6:00 PM, Jeremy will alert any trades, a tad overloaded with paperwork. Have a good one y’all.
Crude oil price then goes on to near the 2nd price target from previous alert. Image of trading room.
So, The Question Then Is, How Did We Nail The Bottom Price On The Day? And How Is It That We Nail That Trade Day After Day With Well Over 90% Win Rate? Below Are My Tips:
What I Can’t Tell You (Top Secret):
We are developing proprietary crude oil order flow AI software platform that is getting really accurate (IDENT). This software runs tandem to the EPIC Oil Trade Machine software that executes the trades. Sovoron then uses that data. Our trading service members and clients of SOVORON receive the benefit but I can’t tell you how it works, ever.
We have been developing algorithmic chart models for crude oil trade on all time-frames for nearly three years now, this helps a lot in determining areas (range) of oil trade and turn-around (reversal, nap-back) trades. The oil algorithmic chart models are available to our trade service members in reports that are regularly distributed.
We have taken the algorithmic chart models and coded them to machine trade software. The software then alerts myself (and team), our oil trading room traders, our trading service members and Sovoron to trades setting up and trade executions. I can’t tell you exactly how the software is coded beyond that, but I can say that it has over 4700 rules. The v3 software is executing a win rate well over 90%. You can learn how to trade on the information it uses by signing on to our newsletters, alerts and/or attend the live trading room.
What I Can Tell You:
Below are just a few tips I can provide with the limited time I have, but I can say that if you study our methods you can duplicate our win rate. We’re still learning and we’re teaching our trading service members and the recently launched AI software to trade oil (the software will obviously be much better than us soon enough), but I think you get the point. There is a process here, you just have to put in the work and learn.
Conventional Crude Oil Charts are critical for your trading strategy. Our software uses them, I (our team) use them and you should be using them daily. All time frames are important so that you know the key areas of support and resistance for your day trading plan. Trend-lines on all times frames should be at your immediate access when trading oil.
Algorithmic Crude Oil Chart Models refine and compliment conventional charting. They help you see what you wouldn’t otherwise be able to see. They also help you know better what the large machine liquidity in the oil markets are likely to do with each support and resistance area. Algorithmic models also provide you with a future forward GPS. For example, you will know where possible channels are before they appear from trade. In summary, algorithmic chart models provide you with the lay of the land – the structure of trade on various time-frames. It is this structure that wide market machine liquidity is programmed to compete within.
When Sizing Your Intra-day Reversal Trade be sure you can release some size almost immediately so that if the trade then goes against you (after the initial spike) then you have some “room” for your stops. In other words, if price spikes 10 ticks after you enter a 3 contract trade then close 1 contract and then if price returns to your buy then decide if you want to release another and then if it goes 10 ticks under your buy release the last. In that scenario you have lost zero. So if you get good at this trade set up then you have a near zero risk trading edge IF YOU DON’T HOLD LOSERS. Where we are working with our software right now is with it holding some as price reversal continues. We have mastered the bottom reversals and now we’re training the software to hold some size and ride some profit. It’s complicated to explain but I’m sure you get the point.
Technically watch for increasing volume at possible lows. Know your support and resistance on every time frame, your trend lines are key as are algorithmic chart model structures. Get to know your important times of day, times of week, time-cycles, events etc. Also, if you can enter after a flash down (a quick spike down in to your intended support) this is best. This allows for some range on the snap-back reversal and if the trade fails you can exit.
And finally, DO NOT HOLD BAGS. Losing trades can be tough to recover. Our v3 software may hold some (very small) but only because it can locate the next bottom and hit it long and have a small loser right side up very quickly. If intra-day trade leaves the intra-day structure our v3 software will close the small position for a loss. This by the way is its edge and the primary reason the v3 EPIC Oil Trading Machine Software very rarely loses a trade.
Bottom Line:
We obviously know how to locate intra-day bottoms in oil price and most often also tops (although top price of day targets are more difficult as is trading oil short from the top – bottom reversals are much easier to trade). The everyday oil trader can learn our methods and find a high win rate with an excellent ROI. Reviewing our videos on YouTube, reviewing our written blog posts and signing on with us will go a long way to you learning this trading edge. This becomes a really easy trading strategy when you have done your study, have the right indicators in front of you when trading, receive some experienced guidance when needed and have our alerts / guidance.
As our software better learns how to hold profits and trail out of the intra-day reversal trades the win rate will remain the same but the ROI of the software graph will likely go parabolic from about 90% per annum (see chart) to a vertical ROI graph – we aren’t far away from this now.
The majority (we estimate now to be close to 90%) of order flow in the oil markets is now machine traded, if you aren’t at least learning how they trade then you’re just not awake to the profitable world it offers.Between 2012 and 2016, almost two-thirds of crude oil contracts traded on CME’s futures exchange were automated, up from 54 per cent, according to a 2017 study by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. https://www.ft.com/content/8cc7f5d4-59ca-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0
Dig in to the links below at the bottom of this article if you want to investigate how our development process can help you profit in the oil trading markets.
Live Oil Trading Room Video.
Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole day-trading session (we run the live video feed from 7am to 5pm EST). To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his/her thinking as he/she and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time stamp on the oil trade alert, chart, trading room screen capture image etc in this or any other report and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.
On Wednesday I was fairly active on mic around trading times with trade set ups and execution of trades.
If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed [email protected] and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
Selling Against An Intra-Day Bullish Break-out In Crude Oil Is Difficult. Here’s How We Day Short-Sold The Trump – China Break-Out News Yesterday.
The trade sequence in this report is a real-world example from our oil trading room. The intra-day oil futures short selling strategy / sequence as of the time of writing this report is not complete so there will be a Part 2 to this post.
Tuesday was a bullish break-out day for crude oil markets. Trump messaged to the world that some tariffs would be delayed and this sent oil soaring in price intra-day.
Oil prices continued to rally on Tuesday, this time on reports that the United States has decided to delay the next round of tariffs that were to be imposed on Chinese goods.
The delay gives hope to a skittish market that the trade war really won’t go on forever.
For WTI, oil prices had climbed 4.30% by 12:36pm EDT to trade at $57.29. Brent Crude was trading up even more at 4.70%, at $61.32—resuming its over $60 per barrel that it had fallen under during the first week of August as the trade war stoked fears of souring oil demand growth.
In addition to the tariff delay, which will now go into force on December 15, the United States will also be taking some of the items on that tariff list off completely, according to its newest policy document published on the Office of the United States Trade Representative website. While the list hasn’t been made public, it will include items that will be removed “based on health, safety, national security, and other factors”.
When the intra-day price in the bullish break-out (on Trump news) was over-extended technically on charts and trade was starting to get in to overhead supply (order-flow), we began a short selling sequence.
Below is the first part of this article because (as I mentioned above) the short selling sequence is still in play and includes a significant number of trade executions.
So for today’s article I will include a chart that shows / maps out each trade execution as I and the v3 EPIC machine trading software executed the trades, the raw footage from the oil trading room and some miscellaneous charting. Then in Part 2 of this article (when the trade sequence is complete) I will explain each trade execution in detail so that it may help you with your crude oil day trading strategies.
When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
Trades are alerted to a live trading room by voice (by leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in Discord private member server.
As mentioned above, Tuesday’s daytrading session in crude oil futures was a short selling strategy in to a spike in price that was over extended technically.
Below is a chart that shows / maps each location of trade (red are the short selling trades and green are the buy or cover trades, each arrow is 1/10 size). Part 2 of this article will be published tomorrow when this sequence is complete.
At time of writing we are green (positive, profitable) in the trade sequence and it will be interesting to see how it completes.
The short selling sequence below is a protocol within the v3 EPIC Crude Oil Machine Trading Software code.
First a few screen capture images from the private oil chat server and associated alerts and charts and then the main chart showing location of each trade is below that.
Below is an image screen shot from the private member oil trading server of the first trade alerts on the day.
Oil day trades started here for the day – screen capture from the oil trading room chat server. First oil trade alerts on day.
And an image of the chat oil room server showing charts of alerted trades etc.
Oil trading room chat server showing charting guidance and alerting where each trade execution is located on chart.
The next set of oil trade alerts and charting to show where each short sell trade is and covering of trades as sequence progresses.
More guidance and charting showing oil trade alert locations on charting and the daytrade session is completing.
As the evening futures session starts more short selling of oil in this time frame starts, alerts on screen.
Below is a one minute chart from oil trading room that shows all the crude oil futures buy and selling of contracts in the short bias sequence.
Red arrows are short selling and green arrows are buys / cover trades. My apologies for the noisy chart but this is my personal work chart I use for working with the developers for the machine trade side of our work.
The bottom right arrow (green) is the most recent cover buy from the oil trade alerts while I write this article in premarket.
Chart from oil trading room trade alerts that shows each buy and sell alert in crude oil in short selling sequence.
And below is a screen shot of most recent oil trade alert from Jeremy stating that the software covered the last of the short selling contracts but is still in a short bias sequence.
Also Jeremy notes that the machine trade software (and myself with manual trade execution) are now on profitable side of the trade sequence, which isn’t bad performance for the v3 software that is less than 6 weeks old and just ran its first larger short selling sequence in to over extended intra-day trading range on the Trump news. So I’m very satisfied because I would have assumed this would be a red or loss day on first go round in this specific new sequence.
Each time the software encounters a similar set-up it will execute for a better ROI, this is the power of machine trading.
The software (v3 EPIC Oil Machine Trade Software) has had 1 red day for 0.2% draw down since it was launched – it has been running for about 5 weeks. It has had a few trade sequences that it was in the red during the sequence (such as this) but has always come up profitable on the day it completes a sequence (with the one exception).
The key with the v3 vs v4 is that the v3 software only holds at most 1/10 size in to an intra-day range (it will hold more on a high frequency very short term basis) and v4 would hold easily 3/10 or more on a much wider range of trade – this allowed for significant volatility in profit and loss.
The smaller holds in to pressure with v3 allows for a projected loss day of 1 in 10 estimated to be equal to the average win day – excellent, balance risk-reward threshold, especially if it can do 80% or more annual returns (which appears to be the case). The smaller holds also allows for v3 to maneuver easier when off-side intra-day because it always has ample “dry powder” to work with.
JeremyToday at 6:11 AM Buy / cover 1/10 56.18 hold 0 but still in sequence to sell Software well green. If the software ends the sequence and/or flips to a buy sequence will advise, but at this point it is still short sequence.
Oil trade alert to cover short while I am writing this article about the day trade sequence.
I will explain each trade execution you see in the chart above in a future post when this trade sequence is complete, which I expect will occur today prior to the EIA report at 10:30.
Live Oil Trading Room Video.
Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole daytrading session. To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his thinking as he and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time of the oil trade alert and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.
On Tuesday, in the video below, I wasn’t providing real in depth trade guidance verbally to the room like I normally attempt to do, I was alerting the trades however. I was busy with our developers because this set-up was new to the v3 machine trade code (each new set-up in oil trade requires “teaching” of the software).
If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed [email protected] and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
The First In A New Article Series Intended to Simplify What We Have Learned For The Oil Trader To Use as Actionable Strategies to Increase Win Rate and ROI When Manually Executing Crude Oil Trades.
For Near 3 Years Now We Have Transparently Shared Our Successes and Failures in the Development of Oil Machine Trading Software.
First, For The Benefit of a Wider Than Normal Audience That This Article Is Being Transmitted To, Allow Me To Share Some of Our History.
Understanding a. Where We Have Come From, b. Where We Are Now and c. Where We Are Going Next is Important. Then We’ll Get In To The First Oil Trading Strategy Article.
A. A Brief History of Where We Come From.
As Stated, For Near 3 Years Now We Shared Our Trading and Software Development Journey Real-Time With Our Crude Oil Trading Community (in a Live Trading Room). We Recorded Live Every Minute Of Our Trading and We Also Endeavored to Share Our Findings Via Various Blog Articles, Alerts, Webinars, Coaching and Videos.
Sharing The Details of Our Journey Was Not Easy. It Was Difficult To Find Time to Reconcile Findings In Such a Way That Would Would Be Easily Transferable to Our Community. The Day-to-Day Trading Live in The Room, Alerting Trades, Coding Software, Writing Articles, Coaching etc all Real-Time While in Our Own Discovery Process Was… Lets Just Say A Tad Crazy.
It Also Wasn’t Easy To Share What We Were Learning in a Way That Would Be Easily Understood and Actionable For Our Clients, Not To Mention Knowing When The Next Phase in Development Would Be Successful or Challenging (Having Us Profitable Or Not).
We Set Out In The Beginning To Be Transparent and We Have Held to That Mandate All the Way Through The Process.
And Now, We Know What Works and Does Not Work And We Begin a Real Journey to Share Our Findings. The Goal is to Share This in the Most Succinct and Simple Way Possible – to Make our Findings “Actionable” For The Average Trader.
Our Story Reveals Secrets Not Commonly Available That Can Help Day Traders Form Proper, Simple, Structured Oil Trading Strategies That Will Increase Your Win Rate, Returns and Lower Risk.
We are Acutely Aware There Are Hundreds of Oil Trading Strategies That Succeed or Fail. The Strategies We Will Share Are Structural in Nature. In Other Words, The Lessons We Learned About The Structure Of Oil Trade and Order Flow Will Help With Any Other Oil Trading Strategies You Are Employing.
Here in The First Article of Its Kind and With a Series of Near Future Planned Informational Articles, Webinars and Select Media Broadcasts, We Endeavor to Summarize and Simplify The Most Important Takeaways for You, The Oil Trader.
B. Where We Are Now.
Recently, we launched real-world testing of version 4 EPIC oil trading software (after running versions 1, 2 and 3 successfully) only to have it (v4) exemplify (once again) the volatility that new version machine trade software deployment encounters.
So needless to say, we were excited about the “next”.
But as we’ve learned over and over again… the “next” can challenge comfort zones in many ways – you could refer to this as our trading risk management threshold – software development and deployment style.
Deployment of version 4 brought volatility that once again exceeded our “risk threshold”. In short, “real world testing” is more about testing our human “risk threshold” or comfort level than it is about whether the software would eventually perform as planned, after all, it does have to be “birthed” and then “learn” and then fly.
But we just weren’t “comfortable” with having to endure the process of the machine software known as version 4 to “learn” and become profitable. Version 4 was a much more aggressive architecture than version 3. So anyway, in short, we abandoned version 4 and returned to the proven version 3. We won’t be returning to v4.
So on Monday August 5, 2019 at 11:00 PM EST we announced the return to v3 and it was “re-born”. It took a day for it to run its start up systems and then started firing trades and has been again profitable since.
“For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts.”
The first day was a quiet day for the v3 software reboot – the action started to come online in day two.
Below, and in near-future articles is where we pick up the story and we will use real-world trading in the live oil trading room to explain as clearly and simply as possible strategies oil day traders can employ to compete with the best of the best.
Each day I will take the oil trading action from the day in the oil trading room and oil trading alerts and post an article specific to the rules the software used to execute the trades with simplicity top of mind when writing the articles.
Traders that study these articles will have the benefit of video recordings of our traders in the oil trading room describing the trades we are manually executing to assist the software developers in “tweaking” the version 3 EPIC software.
The articles will also include various charting (conventional and algorithmic), oil trade chat room trade set up guidance notes from our traders, various articles, informational webinars, select media broadcasts and much more. Some of which will be made available to the general public and some behind our pay wall (subscriber premium material).
When we complete this informational series of articles we will have completed our oil trading development mandates and then go on to the next and the next (in terms of our wider development goals)…
For now, our goal here is to publish approximately one oil trading article per day with video, host one public informational webinar per week (email us at compoundtradingofficial.com to register for the next webinar), post continued v3 daily P&Ls to our social feeds, and have documented all actionable trade strategies within 60 days.
As stated above, much of this will be public facing and yet other information (the more proprietary) will be made available only to our premium subscribers .
Now, Lets Get to The First Lesson in Oil Trade Strategies – Trading With Version 3 With The Lead Trader in The Live Oil Trading Room.
Each article will include at least one lesson (or at least one rule that is included in the software trading rule set).
This first article will be from the oil trading room last Friday, and I will try to catch up the other days from last week at some point soon and as of Monday I’ll be posting each trading day’s action daily.
Here’s how our trading day on Friday went down;
Trading Crude Oil Break Outs.
Trading break-outs (break-ups & break-downs) outside of the most recent trading range is not easy. The reason is simple, you don’t know where the new range of trade will be and you don’t know if it is a true beak-out that will hold.
Our rule set has much more predictable trading set-ups to trade than what we seen on Friday, but lets start here because this was the most recent trading day and future posts will highlight the more predictable set-ups.
All our trades on Friday were winners, I think the v3 software has won every trade since it was rebooted last week and thus far I think it has only had one red day (for 0.02% draw-down).
Trade Sizing, Range Of Trade, Holds & Stops.
Under our v3 protocol, breaks in the price of oil to the current range are traded lightly in terms of sizing and any trade positions are held with tight stops.
In other words, until the new trading range develops, size of trade is to remain small and stop orders need to be considerably rigid because if the break up or down in price does not hold and form a new trading range you do not want to be left holding the bag (a losing position).
If you are caught holding a bag it is important for it to be a small size bag. Our v3 protocol mitigates this also with the ability to determine intra-day bottoms and size in to the next trade to relieve the small losing position when needed. But this is always a very small position if held and is only held intra-day.
In our general informational material about our v3 software vs. v4 this is one of the primary differences in architecture. Version 4 rule-set had holds on a much wider range (you could say a swing trading range) and v3 only holds within the intra-day range as verified by recent trade.
Please Note: When I state absolutes like “v3 only holds” as above, be sure to consider that our software has over 4400 rules that are weighed against each other, so absolutes are not reality, but for the simplicity of our goal here I will often explain rules of trade as absolute.
If you focus on trading range you will find it much more predictable than trading break-outs and break-down in price.
Anyway, before the break-out occurred on Friday we were posting guidance to the oil trade chat room server on Discord and the private member twitter alert feed.
We were also in the live oil trading room stating that trade was likely to break out Friday.
We also provided various immediately applicable guidance to our members specific to resistance and support on the most applicable time frames referencing chart models that our members could refer to.
Below is the morning trading guidance we posted to the crude oil chat room server (Discord private server is used for alerts service along with Twitter feed, alerts are available as a stand alone service or within the bundle with reports and oil trading room access).
The most applicable charting in this instance were the 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute and daily algorithmic chart models.
Note: By “most applicable” I am saying that these particular charts were recently being respected most, by oil trade action, of the various models available. We have numerous algorithmic chart models and conventional charts provided in reporting to members to draw on when providing guidance for their daily trading strategy. Our job is to refer to those that which recent oil trade action has most responded to (or price has respected support and resistance areas on the charts).
Also specifically to the information below, the preferred buy triggers are areas of support that provide high probability for bounce trades intra-day should price actually not break-out. A significant part of the v3 trading rules applies to key areas of support intra-day that liquidity in oil markets that are machine traded are most likely to trigger large buy programs to.
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 8:10 AM Preferred buys on 15 min model; 51.83, 52.02, 52.29, 52.78 trading 53.11 intra day Preferred buys on EPIC 30 min model; 51.88, 52.49, 52.74. Main resistance 53.65, 54.31, 54.43
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 8:25 AM Top of range on daily 53.94 (uptrending TL on model) if held, over that is break-out / divergent. Trading 53.21. Order flow says it can happen. Trading 53.24. Preferred buy trigger on 5 min model. 52.70 9:30 AM at inflection of time cycle running 8:00 AM – 11:00 AM
Crude Oil Trading Chat Room – Lead Traders Provide Technical Guidance for the Members in Advance of Trading Day
JeremyLast Friday at 8:38 AM Order flow and volume since Thurs / internals say break to upside probable.
Continued guidance provided to members in oil trading room – crude oil resistance on daily chart – range of trade
First Oil Trade of the Day – Break Out Trade, A Quick Bullish Trade to Range of 1 Minute Chart Model
Normally we can alert our trades to the alert feeds on Twitter and Discord, but on Friday we were only alerting live in the main oil trading room because trade action and the break out were developing very quickly and there was no time to type the alerts.
Now I will point out quick I sometimes try and do my part on my public facing Twitter feed, I did warn the shorts the night prior of this action setting up because we knew there was accumulation in order flow that started the day prior.
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 9:07 AM Software got that with 1/10 only now out happened too fast to alert typing, was alerted in live room cradle of the quad
The first oil trade of the day was in regular US market premarket, 1 min and daily charting shows the trade range.
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 9:35 AM @Jen 54.32 – 54.48 1/10 traded thanks in trading room yes
Below is the screen capture from the oil chat room showing the Daily Chart Model resistance that trade hit and the cradle of the EPIC Oil Algorithm resistance that trade hit.
Oil algorithmic charting showing the range of trade for the premarket trade – daily and 30 min charts in oil chat room.
Oil algorithmic charting showing the range of trade for the premarket trade – daily and 30 min charts in oil chat room
Lessons From Oil Trade #1 (Break-Out) in Oil Trading Room:
Trade Size – This is a break out trade so trade size was 1/10 size. The v3 protocol is small like this, version 4 would have sized this trade larger.
One Minute Model Structured Range, Upside Resistance Broke – Trade was executed long above the one minute model support / resistance and trade was closed as the next resistance on the one minute model was hit. This was also recent intra-day break of trading range – THIS IS IMPORTANT. Also, if you were confident in the new range holding you could size 2/10 or more and release some at top of one minute trading range and hold some to see if the one minute support held on pull back. Our v3 software will do this if order flow shows a high probability and low risk to such.
Resistance on Chart Models – A key resistance on the EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm chart model was hit as was the trading resistance on the daily chart. This provided further reason to exit or trim the long trade.
Time of Day, Premarket, Momentum – Look at the time of day of the trade. Premarket trade action is critical to watch for a general direction in to regular US market open. Also important are the key times, in premarket the 15 minute and 30 minute candles are critical. This was a 9:00 AM 30 minute candle momentum trade.
Live Oil Trading Room Video
On the live oil trading room video the alert for oil trade #1 on the day starts at 1:22:22 on the video timer and at 8:59 AM EST on the time at bottom right of screen with a notice to live trading room that positive order flow indicates a long trade break out set-up building. Over the next few minutes the trigger is activated (I’m concerned at this point about getting too many traders thinking to bullish because break outs are tough, however, I do announce the long trade at 1/10 size). Price target on the day 53.87 is discussed, trading 53.11 at this point of trade in live oil trading room.
You can see on the trading room video the price of oil come off to the 5 min model support and bounce (typical right before a break our for price to come off and then go).
At about 1:30:00 on the video you will see price pressing the resistance on the next upside trading quadrant on the EPIC Oil Algorithm model.
Lessons From Trade # 2 in Break Out.
At approximately 1:57:30 on the video timer we’re executing long again at 54.32 – 54.48.
Continuation, Intra-day Trend/Strength – There was continuation in the break out.
Resistance Breaks – Price was up over 1 minute range resistance for the long. Price was up over the 30 minute range resistance, and the horizontal historical resistance (yellow).
Close Trade at Range Resistance, You Can Always Re-Enter if Price Continues Bullish – Trade was closed as price entered resistance on the 30 minute model.
Break Out Trade Size Should Be Small – Trade was small at 1/10 size because this is a break out and there is no guarantee the intra-day range developing would hold. Larger size in more appropriate in predictable range trading intra-day.
Lessons From Trade # 3 in Break Out.
At about 3:40:40 on the video we have triggered a trade in $CL_F long 1/10 at 54.31. Here again with tight stops pending order flow.
This was a high frequency order flow battle area intra-day in the break-out area of oil trade in the markets on the day
The time cycles intra day had us expecting more pressure on price that did not occur so when the HFT’s in the market started to trade it stronger we entered with them. This is not a set up that will help the every day oil trader to a great degree unless you were in the trading room with us and understood every detail of the set up as described, not a trade for the beginner.
It was a winning trade, but not the easiest. Most day trades with oil break outs are not what I would describe as easy. At issue, again, is that you don’t want to get caught holding a bag in a failed break out.
The video does go through various other more advanced signals we use as the trade of oil progresses intra-day.
At 3:35:27 on the video you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.
Trading Rule-Set Lessons:
Positive Order Flow – Buy side order flow started strong as price entered the range of the 1 minute model support (the range is marked with blue/red/white horizontal lines clustered). We wanted a buy trigger lower but considering the bullish action on the day this was the reversal point.
Double Bottom Support – Buy side order flow started strong as price entered the double bottom intra-day range.
Progressive Increasing Volume – Progressive volume was obvious.
Close at Resistance – At 4:00:50 approximately on video recorder timer we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance. The timing was perfect for exit also based on intra-day time cycle frequencies (intra-day time cycle frequencies as it relates to trading this day are not what I will explain in this post, in short that specific discipline in our rule-set takes considerable experience). Nevertheless, clear resistance was hit and on the video you will hear me count down to the time cycle completion and a perfect hit to resistance and exit of the long trade.
On the video at 3:35:27 you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.
On the video you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.
Screen shot below of oil trading room live trade alert – we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance.
Oil trading room live trade alert – we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance.
There were other miscellaneous trades on the day (all winners) but considering the complexity of signals on this day (considering it was a break out early structure) I think I will leave it there. I would rather focus these posts on the most predictable and easily executable trades for our oil traders to learn.
The next post I will do tomorrow (Monday) evening after we’re done trading for the day.
If you need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed [email protected] and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Since the end of December when the price of nearby NYMEX crude oil futures fell to a low at $42.36 per barrel, the price recovered to $66.60 in April and fell to a low at $50.52 last week. At $54.50 on the nearby September NYMEX crude oil futures contract on August 9, the price is at the midpoint of the trading range since December 2018. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284072-crude-oil-monkey-middle
Further Learning:
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
