Welcome to the Next Trading Boot Camp Cabarete Beach, Dominican Republic!
10 Student Maximum for in person attendance. 25 Student Maximum for online attendance.
Sessions Sell Out Fast (it is warm here after-all) so act fast if you plan to be here with us!
Book Before Mar 15 For Early Bird 30% Discount (2999.00 – 899.70 = 2099.30) for this session, use code “coach30” at check-out.
Returning Student Alumni 50% Discount (2999.00 – 1499.50 = 1499.50), use code “alumni” at check-out.
Event price 2999.00 includes the training (online or in-person) plus;
Attendees receive All Access Membership (1499.00 value) incl for 30 days – click here for detail.
Attendees receive Video Recordings of Previous Trade Coaching Boot Camp (1499.00 value).
Attendees receive previously recorded 20 Hour Master Class Series video set (1499.00 value).
Take your trading to the next level with our lead trader at our next trade coaching boot camp at Cabarete Beach, Dominican Republic April 19 – 21, 2019.
If you can’t attend in person you can attend the class online virtually and take part in question and answer as if you were in the boot camp live.
Risk Management: Time dimensions, scaling in and out of trades
Technical Analysis: Time/Price Cycles, Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Charting, and others
Bringing it all together: simulated trading in equities, commodities and crypto.
Real-time trade planning for intra-day and swing traders
Technical Analysis: Combining multiple analytic tools, inverses, algorithmic and black box modeling, third-party scripting and widgets
Open Q/A. You trade your own account in a live environment
Availability of team trading pending on group sizes
Your Instructor.
A rare opportunity to receive trade coaching from a thirty year Wall Street trading veteran, you won’t regret this small investment for a future of freedom. Click here for our lead trader biography and trading disciplines.
Learn how to trade like the pros using technical set-ups only the largest funds have access too. The stock market’s liquidity is exponentially being traded more and more by algorithmic traders and machine trading.
Our trade coaching equips the every-day trader with a serious edge to compete in this new market generation.
The lead trader at Compound Trading is a technical market architect contracted by many funds in the stock market – he knows how to structure your trades to compete.
This opportunity won’t present itself for long as our lead trader is nearing retirement.
Pricing is 2999.00 for the 3 days (you pay travel, meals, hotel). We are running a 30% Early Bird discount for this session, use code coach30 at checkout.
Let us know if you need a hand with hotel recommendations and more! The boot camp is held right at Cabarete Beach for coordinating your hotel. We can also refer you to gated communities nearby with packages. Many students come days prior or stay days after the boot camp to trade with our lead trader, other traders and enjoy some of the excursions available on the island!
RE: Price Increase Details w/ Promo Codes. EPIC Oil Trade Algorithm March 4, 2019. Applies to Bundle, Newsletter, Oil Trade Alerts and Oil Trading Room.
February 24, 2019
Compound Trading Group recently launched a first generation oil trading algorithm (CL) software with great initial success. January oil trade alerts seen a 63% account build increase. We expect results to continue to trend higher as the software is fine-tuned.
Also included on the advisory above is detail concerning our proprietary IDENT software update – IDENT is an order flow identifier that helps our software trigger trades with market leaders. The IDENT program update has provided our oil trading and alerts with an extremely high win rate since introduction.
Also recently announced, Compound Trading Group’s EPIC Oil Machine Trading Software has been selected for the SOVORON™ trading platform. SOVORON™ offers a unique trading service providing clients with technology application based Machine Trade of personal investment accounts along with a fund and robo-trade application in their pipeline. To explore their unique client service structure click here http://sovoron.com/ or call 1-849-861-0697.
And finally, Compound Trading Group will be closing to the general public as of April 30, 2019 and will only be available as a private service going forward – you can view the news release here.
Existing members will be included in the transition. Most of Compound Trading Group’s clientele are serious full time traders, private commercial trading services and institutional clients.
Price Increase Detail, Early Adopter Price Guarantee, Limited Promo Codes:
Existing members (early adopter pricing) remains constant and are not affected by the price increases below as long as the member fees do not lapse.
Oil Trading Bundle – Weekly EPIC Algo Newsletter and Charting, Real Time Twitter Feed Alerts, Main Trading Room Access During Active Trade, Private Oil Trading Room / Chat Discord Server (not screen sharing live broadcast like the main trading room).
Current Pricing: 1 Month 399.00, 3 Months 1099.00, 6 Months 2199.00, 1 Year 3999.00.
New Mar 4, 2019 Prices: 1 Month 799.00, 3 Months 1999.00, 6 Months 3799.00, 1 Year 6999.00.
This works out to about 10.00 per alert but also includes the trading rooms and newsletter. If you calculated 60 – 100 trade alerts per month.
Current Pricing: 1 Month 299.00, 3 Months 807.30, 6 Months 1435.20, 1 Year 2511.60.
New Mar 4, 2019 Prices: 1 Month 399.00, 3 Months 999.00, 6 Months 1899.00, 1 Year 2999.00.
Crude Oil Trade Alerts – Distributed by way of private members Twitter feed and now includes access to private Discord oil chat / trade alert feed (with push notifications).
Current Pricing: 1 Month 199, 3 Months 537.3, 6 Months 955.2, 1 Year 1671.60.
New Mar 4, 2019 Prices: 1 Month 499.00, 3 Months 1399.00, 6 Months 2699.00, 1 Year 4999.00.
Promo Codes are in effect for a limited time “bundle30” at check-out. The promo codes remain in effect until Mar 3, 2019 only.
If you have any questions please email me direct at [email protected].
RE: EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Machine Trading Software Advisory Specific to Trade Frequency Protocol “Throttle” and IDENT Program Description.
We are now near two months of running the machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts (CL).
During the testing phase, which will continue for some time as we adjust code instructions, the execution of trades by the program is “throttled”. Meaning specifically that the frequency of trade was specifically limited to the highest and then was adjusted to a higher win probability threshold.
The result of the initial testing achieved near 100% win side trade accuracy, but less than optimum trade frequency. Increased frequency may (will in our estimation) return a higher ROI – assuming the win rate percentage achieved is high enough. This of course is a complicated calculation within the code that reflects the win side average per trade return vs. loss side average per trade. In short, the loss side is programmed to be less (limited by way of higher frequency executions – tight stop triggers) and when trade is on win side the trade profit is increased via trade size that is progressively trimmed as the trade is in progress. Refer to private Discord oil trade chat server for real-time discussion between developers and traders for more detail.
The “alerted trades” meaning that which could be considered actionable alerts to our subscribers. The machine software executed many times more trades but our current alert system platform (Twitter private member feed, Discord private chat server, Oil trading room live broadcast) cannot for the most part distribute alerts fast enough for the higher frequency trades to be considered actionable by a human executing trades manually (a trader digital platform is on the team WIP to remedy this). In consideration also is that the higher frequency trade protocols could easily be reverse engineered to expose the proprietary protocols under our IDENT program – this remains a discussion point internally and how the higher frequency trades will be shared is in question (more on that at a later date).
The “throttle” was initially set to approximately 20 x and over the course of fifty days progressively lowered to function near 10 x with less and less human intervention along the way. 20 x for example would result in twenty times less trade frequency than would otherwise be if the software was not “throttled” at all.
Today (Feb 22 at 2:11 AM EST) the code was adjusted considerably to be “throttled” to be less than 10x and will be lowered progressively over the next 7 trade days. The win rate vs. return as it would be calculated over a month is the achievement bar (goal) in focus. More on this objective and other clarification in near future updates.
Market condition will also result in variance of execution frequency as will holiday weeks specific to the model(s) divergence.
The main takeaway: In to next week the frequency of trade will be considerably higher with an objective being to find the most optimum throttle setting to achieve the highest return. The win rate is expected to near 80% and not near 100% and the return on equity on a monthly basis to increase considerably.
The 63% monthly return (monthly return in this instance meaning account equity size increase as it relates to alerted trades only) is a favorable start, however, our team believes 100% + return per month is consistently attainable (on average over a year) and in a perfect machine executed world 300 – 500% being optimally possible. For now our objectives are to achieve consistent wins at higher than 80% with a frequency of about 60 to 120 trades per month with a return averaging 100% per month (the bar).
The IDENT program is a protocol specifically to order flow identification of market participants achieved by way of historical pattern recognition of between 20 – 40 entities that we consider largest and approximately 200 entities that we consider important enough to attempt to track. The entities are prioritized in what we describe as an “alpha” order. The IDENT program is in large part the topic of this recent article at this link that describes the influence of machine trade in the crude oil trade market as experienced by our lead trader and is in large part the reason for the “intuitive like” nature of our software protocol.
The IDENT program seeks to enter trade direction with prioritized alpha order flow and exit in the same fashion. It is a proprietary process and the instruction set within the code architecture will in large part remain private.
I know my journey (of the last two and a half years) few have traveled. I know this to be so, like I know I breathe.
I didn’t know before I went down that hole, but I know now – how much I did not know before I went down that hole. And it’s huge. I knew nothing. Few know anything.
I can’t imagine many other disciplines in the world as off-side as this. Nothing, and I mean nothing in regular market banter, conventional stock exchange media or social media ever deals with the reality of what is down that hole. They don’t even know there is a hole (most).
Why is this topic of any importance to a trader or investor?
The topic? A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and that will matter before the humans know it mattered.
A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and
that will matter before the humans know it mattered.
Assuming the 80/20 rule applies to the markets, then 20 percent win 80 percent of the trades and reap 80% of the reward (ROE). I don’t know what the real numbers are – it was likely closer to 90/10 before machine learning entered the public stock markets. I would venture to guess it’s 97/3 or so now. But I don’t know.
The problem looks like this… what happens when the machines (run by less than .001% – a guess) garner 90% or more of the market return? Is that possible? I know it is, I know it may be true now, and if not it isn’t far away. What percentage of current liquidity is machine learning trade driven? What percentage of that is on the win side?
What does that look like in the future? How far away is that future? I will bet that future is here now and it has enormous effect on your earning potential (as a human trader). And I will put forward right here that it will end the way humans trade in global markets about five years out. It already has, the humans just haven’t accepted reality.
So why then is this so important? We’re here to win. We trade to win. To earn. To see return on equity. Return on time. The path forward is critical for any trader that derives their income from trading.
Early adopters will win. They will win because they will develop relationships with firms that will provide solutions. They will win because they will adopt the technology, relationships, financial rewards before the technology is out of reach (financially speaking). Or perhaps, never available at certain levels of society. Never available is more likely.
Early adopters will win.
The market is already littered with technology built on poor science. It simply doesn’t work. But the firms that have figured it out… have really figured it out. How long does it take them to hit market capacity? Will they share the technology? I say no, they won’t be sharing.
There are many questions.
At minimum, it’s prudent in my view for a trader to cozy up to the developers. This isn’t a sales pitch, we’re beyond selling anyone. We’ve completed our first machine learning software – we don’t need to sell you. So why write this article? Because I want to share something I’ve learned in the process of development that I think is of critical importance to anyone that has followed our journey. I feel a responsibility to share. Share what you ask?
You can’t beat the machines. It’s not possible. And I know. I’m a damn good trader and I can’t even beat our first generation software with crude oil futures trade. I don’t think it has lost a trade this month (maybe it has but I don’t think so) and we’re near three weeks in to the month. And it’s not that it hasn’t lost, it is more about how it wins.
It knows before I do. It enters before I do. It trims in to positions and exits when I wouldn’t. It knows things I can’t know, I can’t see. It sees every line on every book in the library instantly, while I search for the right book on the shelf.
It sees every line on every book in the library instantly,
while I search for the right book on the shelf.
How you ask? It has intuitive like capabilities (as I do) but it can process the decisions (as if intuitively) many times faster than I. It has systematic approaches to trade (as do I) but it can process the decisions on thirteen time-frames considering the historical structure of the financial instrument and how each time-frame relates to the next and which structure or time-frame should trump various trade execution decisions (the rule-set).
It is simply faster. It can process 8000 rules and how each rule relates to the next in each of the structures on each time-frame instantaneously. That instantaneous decision would take me at least 12 months full time of charting, historical back testing and deep thought to conclude that one decision. The machine executed on the decision and left the trade behind before I glanced over and seen it was over. I didn’t have time to acknowledge it was leaving the scene.
It’s not only faster, but precise. It enters and exits with absolute precision.
Yesterday (President’s Day holiday) it executed on one trade. The biggest move of the day on a slow day and it executed before the move happened. It shorted oil, I sat watching thinking why the heck is it short here? Tick tock tick tock boom, oil dropped about 37 points near instant, on a low range boring holiday trading day. And it covered in a flash before I could process why exiting the trade at that juncture of trade on the chart was valid. It is fast and it acts as if it is intuitive. And it is only first generation software.
Here’s a post that shows the trade;
A trade or two prior to yesterday’s was the same way. I couldn’t believe what I was watching.
Here’s another example, it knows over and over again where the real move in a time frame is before the move.
And an example of how precise it is in comparison to my personal trade executions;
It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in oil trade account gainsand it was yoked to a human at all times that throttled its executions by about 10 to 1. What am I saying? It could have traded up to 10x the return (assuming the same win rate and ROE on each trade would have transpired had it been non-yolked).
It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in account gains.
Over the last few days we’ve allowed it autonomy – to a point. It can execute with autonomy when it is executing but we still have it throttled to about 5 to 1, this will be slowly adjusted / released. This week is a holiday week so there is issue in the structure of the models so it will be a slower than usual machine trading week for our model, but next week will be a mad house – a slaughter house. I’m not exaggerating. It doesn’t lose. Okay, it does – maybe, but rarely and for next to nothing for loss when and if it does. If it’s wrong… its out and fast.
If you think this is exaggeration, visit our public facing Discord trading chat room (click here) and randomly ask anyone to step forward and tell you I’m wrong (members I am referring to). Or check out the alert feed yourself. I win around 90% of my personally executed trades in oil (yes documented), it (the machine learning software) wins something nearing 100%. But its wins are the real meat of each trade. My trades are choppy. It harvests the move in a way I cannot. The compound return effect on the difference is astronomical. Click here for a recent article I posted about compound trading gains in oil trade.
We have been working day and night for over two years to develop machine trading software that really works. Why do I say “that really works?” Because most is garbage. Below are the reasons why most algorithmic trading is a waste (how ours was developed) and why you the human trader cannot beat real machine trading execution in the stock market.
Take four people (average at any given time in the development process), have them work 60 – 80 hours a week for 2.5 years. That’s about 14,000 hours. If the methodology used is right you then have at least another 14,000 hours to refine the software rule-set along with constant updates etc. We have now completed the first 14,000 hours. What has that experience taught me? Primarily that a human trader will never beat machine software. And that doesn’t consider machine software that becomes intuitive like – AI, Artificial Intelligence.
Here are just a few (and I mean a few) reasons why you will never out trade the machine – specific to the methodology of development we used to develop our first machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts CL. Yes, I am going to tell you how we did it. Why? Because I won’t tell you how our intuitive development is implemented, that is proprietary and always will be. Here’s the nuts and bolts:
ROI – First month the machine garnered a 63% increase in trade account size and that was only the actionable oil trade alerts. Not the machine HFT returns. This means the software executed many more trades than what was alerted. We can only alert what a human can type fast enough to alert that could be actionable for our membership. Next on our list is a real-time feed for our members (automated alerts). In other words, the machine gained much more than 63% on its trading account, but that is private and always will be. What is public is what we alert that is actionable by a human trader executing trades manually. We are judged on what data can deliver as actionable to our clients.
INSTANT EXECUTION OF DEEP TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE – Take thirteen time-frames of crude oil (the charts) and find the structure of the financial instrument on each time frame (this is not systematic machine trading, this is an intuitive like process). Not to mention the time involved and cost. The human can’t process decisions on thirteen time-frames (both systematic and intuitive like and as they relate to each other, as described earlier in this article).
INTUITIVE EXECUTION, INSTANT – Each time frame structure as it relates to each other. Continuing specifically the intuitive like component of point 2 above… imagine constructing the models for the structure of the financial trading instrument on thirteen time frames, that in of itself is a massive undertaking. Then being able to almost intuitively determine how intra-day trade relates to each and which trumps the other. This is massive.
FAST EXECUTION. The machine can out execute any human with orders in and out and trailing and on and on. Complex structures of entries and exits and more instantaneously. This is critical for return on each trade.
PRECISE EXECUTION. Have you ever watched crude oil trade on the one minute chart? Precise execution with orders that change frequently in a flash of a second increases returns on each trade considerably. You can’t imagine the importance until you’ve been down the hole.
I am not speaking to;
I’m not speaking to conventional hedge fund robo adviser software. Most of it is junk designed to rob the masses taking advantage of the casino mind or lazy investor.
I’m not speaking to high frequency trading that leverages machine speed, order flow or execution locality. That is a form of HFT we have no interest in. We want transferable knowledge as it applies to the natural trading structure of the financial markets. Transferable in that the process used to derive the model for one can be applied to another.
I’m not speaking to run of the mill python code some random developed in his/her basement with 500.00 and an idea of how an instrument trades (the systematic process).
And finally, I am not speaking to the news oriented bots running software trades on intra-day media or geopolitical driven events.
The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning.
The intuitive like component, beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies. The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning. It is (as it applies to where we are now) the early building blocks of autonomous machine learning trade.
Beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies.
How did we get intuitive like software to work? What does intuitive like mean to us?
Here’s a glimpse… a real trader with decades of experience traded real-time for hundreds of hours live with software developers that extracted the intuitive like human understanding – real-time, asking questions, engaging in the why and how at each tick in the chart.
We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code. Only now… we have manifold times more horse-power.
We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code.
The new brain – the new trader, the intuitive like software… can execute hundreds of times faster on thousands of times the information second by second. Every tick on the chart is a complete new set of rules that need confronting, they need to be examined from every angle, back tested, related to each time frame, a plan derived and a trade has to executed right now. A series of right now. With precision.
The bullet hits before you hear it.
This is why the human will never beat (real) machine learning trade software. The only question that determines how good the software is, is how good the trader was that the developers used to extract from that created the entity (the software) and what process was used to do that. The cost? 14,000 – 28,000 hours at hundreds of dollars per hour – for a generation one package. And that is just the start.
It is a different world and we’re not by far the first out of the gate. But I know we’re running one of the better models out there. That I do know. Because it wins when it goes in to battle.
Any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier.
I also know that any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier. If you don’t you will regret not taking the time to forge your future. Now.
SOVORON™ offers a unique trading service providing clients with technology application based Machine Trade of personal investment accounts. To explore their unique client service structure click here http://sovoron.com/ or call 1-849-861-0697.
About Compound Trading Group.
Compound Trading Group is a market data provider to retail, commercial enterprise and institutional traders.
Trader Services – Compound Trading Group provides trader data services such as algorithm development, periodicals, trade coaching, trade alerts and live trading rooms. The near term objective is a digital dashboard environment for traders to fully engage machine trade and intelligent assisted trade data offered only at the commercial enterprise level.
Commercial Enterprise Services – Compound Trading Group develops financial instrument algorithm models and provides connect-ability to its proprietary AI Machine Trading software / data (representing various financial instruments) to private trade and institutional firms. Compound Trading Group also provides enterprise trader training, integration services, custom software / data constructs and strategic partner development opportunities.
Crude Oil Day Trading Session From Oil Trading Room – Trading Set-up Short Waterfall Strategy.
If you want to learn how to day trade crude oil, or if you want to win more often and already are an oil day trader this post with live video from our oil trading room will provide you with insight to how I day trade crude oil.
The planning and preparation I perform prior to every trade (such as reviewing support and resistance on all time frames and charting), the signals I watch for and what the water-fall short trade set-up looks like and specifically how to day trade the price action.
This is a very detailed video and I highly recommend oil traders study it for maximum consistency to your trading gains.
Voice broadcast starts at 1:23 on video.
At start of this video there are announcements about what we are doing (our staff work in progress) and general view of markets and how the trade of equities (swing trades) is affected by nearby resistance on oil charting.
Topics of announcements include the coding updates for the machine trading, status of algorithm reports, the huge month in our oil trading last month (up 63% in one month), trade alerts, digital platform for our clients to watch machine trade real-time, swing trade timing for equity and various algorithm model swing trade positioning in this time cycle, why the machine trading can beat my overall return performance by 10 times, coding of other algorithm models, the publishing of the rule-set modules for oil trading (mechanical human executed & machine traded, intra-day swings, longer term swings and daytrading).
The Pull Back In Oil Trade.
At 9:20 I discuss the trade action in oil as we trade near key resistance in oil. We should see 53 and possibly 52’s and even more down.
Trade Signals to Watch For Positioning Swing Trades, Intra-Day Swings and Day Trading..
When trade hits support for a proper bounce we know when machines are in trade because the trade action becomes really clean within the models. This predictable trade action provides a signal for when to start longer swing trade entries, helps us with intra day swing trades within the EPIC trading model and provides for precise day trading on the one minute model.
Trend Line Support on Watch.
At 10:30 on video the basing trend-line on the 4 hour chart is reviewed as support. Conclusion of this pull back in oil should come soon. I am expecting at latest Monday or Tuesday of next week.
Watch for violent trade up / down (stops taken out), most likely down first so I am positioning my bias for that scenario first. Likely a sharp down and then sharp up and then the mid point between the two points should be the decision area.
Tomorrow is EIA so this could be your timing or likely before end of week is likely for the spike up and down and then the pivot decision goes in to Sunday night futures.
Basing trendline on 4 hr should conclude soon up or down for new trend in crude oil trade. #oil #chart #support
One Minute Crude Oil Day Trading Model.
At 12:48 I discuss trade on the one minute day trading model. The problem in trade as we get close to key resistance decision is trade becomes sloppy. So I show you how to trade the model if you need to trade and you don’t want to wait for the decision on oil trade trend direction.
The indicators are late so you have to act on price prior.
How to Trade a Key Intra-Day Break to Down Side (Waterfall) or Upside. The Oil Day Trade Starts Live on Video Here.
At 14:00 the intra-day possible break to downside in trade is discussed.
Planning and Preparation for Your Day Trade – Know Your Key Support Area on Charting Prior to Entering a Trade.
When trade on the one minute charting looks like a break to downside (or upside) is possible I first go to the EPIC model for key support or resistance. 53.52 is at mid quad on model, so that is support to watch.
At 16:24 on video 53.00 is a support on the daily chart (a Fibonacci support on the oil daily chart and the 20 MA support).
51.13 is next support and 57.31 for Feb 20 is the upside scenario.
My bias is pull back and then go again.
53.00 – 55.50 is a likely pivot area until a conclusion occurs in this trade area.
Oil trading room screen shot shows 53.00 support daily chart Fibonacci oil daily chart and 20 MA
At 18:00 on the video the weekly oil chart is reviewed.
The price extension support and resistance, the 20 MA 57.00 and 200 MA 52.30 (as your broad trading range) and trend lines on the weekly charting is reviewed. 53.26 price extension is serious support and price under that is an obvious short.
Know Where the Price Targets Are for the Machines.
Discussed is the end of week and EIA price targets on the EPIC algorithm model. The algorithmic channel and quad support and resistance areas.
Preparing My Short Order Day Trade in Oil Live on Trading Room Video.
At 20:00 on video I get my trading execution ready.
The Trade Pattern Set-up (Signal).
At 20:30 on video – When you see this pattern (trade signal) on the one minute charting model be very careful to cut your trade fast if the machines kick in the other direction (long).
Trade When Signals Are Most Predictable.
I prefer trading oil when the trend is clear and the machines are in it. Reports say over 80% of oil traders lose. This is largely why. Trade gets sloppy and then frustrates the trader.
Money in crude oil trading is made in the trend. Near resistance trading can mind mess you.
This is why I close my DWT short swing trade when we got near key resistance.
Winning is Important.
Not only is losing bad for your account but it is even more important for your mind. Your subconscious needs to know it wins. The subconscious is powerful.
Day Trading Model.
Location of trading boxes around three pivot areas of the one minute crude oil day trading chart model.
24:00 on video pivot resistance is discussed.
Pivot Resistance on the One Minute Oil Chart Model.
I am short bias to 53, 52.75 then 51.20 is possible.
Indicator Signals.
At 24:45 on the one minute you have stochastic RSI increasing and price that is basing, typically that means down next or even a possible waterfall short trade set-up.
The Risk-Reward (the Math of the Trade) On a Down-Side Break Set-up.
At 25:20 I start to discuss the math of the trade. You can take the short side trade and if price turns on you then you take a maximum cut of 16 ticks on the trade, but if price gets you on the right side and continues to confirm short then your win will be much bigger return.
Short Trade Executed – Play by Play.
At 25:42 on the video at 53.77 my short trade execution is done live.
Location on crude oil chart of short trade entry for day trade on chart below.
Location on crude oil chart of short trade entry for day trade.
Short crude oil trade alert screen shot of member Twitter alert feed is shown below at 53.77.
Short crude oil trade alert screen shot of member Twitter alert feed.
At 26.42 on video the buys came in at the Fibonacci support on the one minute model shown (red arrow).
Buys came in to oil trade intr day at the Fibonacci support on the one minute model shown (red arrow).
At 26.50 buy side trades are testing the 20 MA resistance on 1 minute chart.
At 28:34 on video trade is over the 20 MA trading 53.83 hit resistance on the pivot on the 1 min just under 50 MA.
Indicators are turning up now. Started to look like a reversal trade but I stayed with the plan because trend on the day was down and I didn’t want to be chopped up.
Trade hit 53.87 before it turned back down (so I was 10 ticks off side at that point). Technically trade got a penny or two over trading box resistance but I held because the bulls needed to have big buys and momentum to kick in to fight the daily trend which was pressure in trade.
At 32.35 the 4 hour chart is reviewed and my target for the risk reward to down side. The reward potential was much better in my thinking.
The EPIC model confirms also.
At 33:40 the weekly chart shows a good risk reward also.
Protecting you capital is key and trading for risk reward on trend for the time frame.
30 minute candle turn timing is discussed.
The pivot test continues.
At 39:13 on the video the technical area of key support for the day trade is reviewed. 53.58 is the next Fib down so you want trade to break under that and hold under 53.58 and if it doesn’t you’re best closing the trade for a scalp. This is purely a math play. You will win 50% and win you do win you’ll either get a decent scalp or a larger 5 x risk reward win.
This is purely a math play. You will win 50% and win you do win you’ll either get a decent scalp or a larger 5 x risk reward win.
At 42:47 volatility VIX is reviewed and how I want volatility to start rising intra-day.
At 45:28 the importance of trading in a zen state vs. frustration is discussed.
At 46:00 trading on bias based on technical set-ups and protecting your capital (accepting it quickly when you are wrong) is key to trading success.
At 48.00 the inverse head and shoulders that technicians on Twitter were talking about is discussed relative to the risk reward on the 30 minute chart price target.
The price target for the short oil trade is shared in the oil trading chat room private server.
The price target for the short oil trade is shared in the oil trading chat room private server.
How I Knew Where to Close the Short Oil Trade for a Win.
At 53:15 on the video is top of the hour with price falling and trade was under the key support resistance 54.59 and we needed it to hold under for staying in the trade short.
The price action here on the video is important to watch close here if you want to learn how to do this.
At 57:00 on video I explain that you could short again here, I didn’t, but price did come off and it would have been a decent short trade.
Trade did not stay under resistance at pivot so I closed the oil short trade for a win.
Trade did not stay under resistance at pivot so I closed the oil short trade for a win.
If You Want a Win Rate 90%+ DayTrading Crude Oil – I Highly Recommend Listening to this Part of The Video – IT IS KEY.
I continue to comment on how the trade continues to set up discussing the technical areas to watch.
If you want to learn about specifically where your support and resistance areas are on the one middle model BE SURE TO WATCH THE VIDEO HERE (from 57:00 minutes on video forward).
If you watch the price action and my commentary you will see how precise the machines trade the one minute model – THIS WILL HELP YOU TIME YOUR ENTRIES AND WHEN TO CLOSE. VERY IMPORTANT.
Below is a screen shot of the oil trade alert feed – closing the trade for a win.
Closed short trade – oil trade alert screen shot of alert feed.
Below is the Trade Executed Live in Oil Trading Room.
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to the oil trading algorithm report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algorithm and I am one of seven primary Algorithmic Chart Models in development at Compound Trading Group (there are over one hundred in total in development at various stages in various markets).
NOTICES:
New members to our oil algorithm charting models, oil trade alerts and oil trading room are encouraged to on-board in a way that equips you as an oil trader for consistent profit.
Invaluable are the crude oil trade alerts (available with or without the trading room / weekly report bundle) and the private member crude oil trading chat room on Discord (included in the bundle) and attendance to the live trading room.
The live alerts are important if you are not at your trading screens 24 hours a day and the chat room allows for interactive lead trader oil trade set-ups as each oil trade approaches. All bundle members can access the live oil trading room when active also.
Reviewing important points of reference and engaging the subscription resources will increase your probability of success considerably. This report also includes links to some recent example “how-to” videos.
Oil Trade Coaching – We strongly suggest users of this algorithmic crude oil trading strategy opt for some level of private one-on-one coaching with our lead trader. Our lead trader is maintaining a crude oil trading alert win-rate of over 90% as of Sept 2, 2018 (time-stamped, live alert, recorded).
On our website one-on-one online coaching packages are available (coaching via Skype) or you can request a custom package reflecting the time you wish to invest in learning. To request a custom package suited to your needs email [email protected] or click here for standard private trade coaching packages. Other options for coaching include online webinars, trade coaching bootcamps and private on location (in person) coaching sessions.
Oil Trading Room – How to Use the Oil Algorithm
Oil Trading Room – How to Trade Intra-day with my Algorithmic Oil Charting
Oil Trading Alerts. Live Lead Trader Video Trading w EPIC Oil Algorithm
Recent articles / videos from our blog about how to trade crude oil with our oil trading algorithm (if you are a newer member that needs an unlock code for any of the posts below please email [email protected]):
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available on our shop page.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is now also in the coding phase for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process, about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on Twitter feed and/or this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an oil algorithmic model in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am presented on (and used on) conventional trade charting as one would normally use.
The goal is to provide oil traders with signals for an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil – first with the reporting format as below, then with machine trading functions and an integrated intelligent assisted traders platform that will provide the user with various settings of automation and personal trade execution.
In the weekly report below you will find simplified levels represented on conventional and algorithmic charting for intra-day (day-trading crude oil), swing trading and investing.
This work (and associated trading) should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on with oil related financial instruments.
Forward questions to [email protected], private message our lead trader on Twitter or in the private Discord oil trading room.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE SIGNAL (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED, ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
Oil Algorithm Observations:
Below is a link for the live algorithmic chart of EPIC the Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (Generation 1, Version 5 including black box modeling). The charting is a real-time trading chart represented on FX USOIL WTI published January 13, 2019.
Click on share button (bottom right beside flag) and when that screen opens click on “make it mine” to view real-time, make edits etc:
The first most predictable trade are the resistance and support cluster areas formed by long term chart trend lines (see charts that have trend-lines represented in red as made available below near bottom of this report – conventional charting trend-lines).
The second most predictable trade (wide trading range primary resistance and support that become predictable buy and sell triggers). Current algorithmic model wide trading range resistance (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 54.45 in the current trading range. Current algorithmic model wide trading range support (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 50.80 in the current trading range – these areas are general range support and resistance areas (our algorithm uses a .15 – .20 cent buffer on either side for these trades – if that is exceeded then trading price is likely to use the line as a pivot until a directional trending trade is established).
Trading between the resistance / support horizontal grey lines is extremely profitable risk – reward if one is disciplined to the patience required and follows the trend of trade.
More recently (as of September 2018) our back-testing has shown that the support and resistance areas noted are used in trade as a decision pivot – in other words, the price tends to pivot around these decision points on the chart and coil over a period of time and then spring out of the coil in an upward or downward trend.
The lower trading range is 47.14 – 50.79 and upper trading range 54.46 – 58.07.
Third most predictable trade (support and resistance of uptrend or down trend channels). On the chart an upward trending trade channel is presented and a downward option (channel support and resistance / trading range is represented as diagonal dotted orange lines and purple arrows – as made available, assist in displaying directional trade decision areas).
Fourth most predictable trade (support and resistance of 30 min quadrants). The diagonal lines make up quadrants (in this instance on a 30 min chart) and are represented as orange diagonal lines that make up geometric diamond shapes. These lines also assist in intra-day trade.
Fifth most predictable trade (support and resistance of most applicable Fibonacci) the Fib support and resistance lines are the horizontal lines in various colors with the exception of purple and yellow (see below). These horizontal lines become support and resistance for intra-day trade.
Sixth most predictable trade (support and resistance of historical support and resistance) Natural / historical support and resistance lines shown in purple or yellow – they represent historical support and resistance. The strongest of the historical support and resistance lines are shown in yellow horizontal and are typically accompanied by a yellow arrow marker.
Seventh most predictable trade signal we use are the time and price targets (red circles). When trade is in a significant uptrend or downtrend the targets become very precise and move up the indicator priority list quick.
Tues, Wed and Fri targets are most predictable in extended multi week up-trends or down-trends.
The Eighth most predictable trade is intra-day. You will notice on some of the charting geometric shapes in green on some of my charting (at times). They are charted live in the trading room and at times the lead trader will highlight these areas intra with white outlines (typically geometric shapes such as diamonds or triangles).
Intra-day Trading Bias
Intra day bias is up side trade as the MACD is turned up on the daily chart and this indicator is usually a leading indicator for oil trade on this time-frame. However, after the recent run up in price (since Christmas) and the pressure that came in to oil trade last week it is highly probable pressure continues in to this coming trading week.
Wide Trading Range – Buy and Sell Triggers for Swing Trading Crude Oil:
Swing trading bias / forward guidance as of Jan 13 12:01 AM EST is indecisive for the reasons noted above.
Review the charting and stay on top of the structures that play out in the different time frames. It has everything to do with the time frame you are trading.
Trade the ranges noted above between the thick grey lines (grey arrows) for the most predictable swing trades between 47.14 – 50.79, 50.80 – 54.44, 54.45 – 58.06, 58.07 to 61.69, 61.70 to 65.31, 65.32 to 68.92, 68.93 to 72.54, 72.55 to 76.14 and 76.15 to 79.74. This is a highly profitable risk-reward way to trade oil if you can be patient to trigger at only the break of the wide range charting areas and are disciplined to cut a losing trade that does not prove in your anticipated trend.
Or trade the range between the channel diagonal lines at support and resistance in up or down channel (orange dotted diagonals).
Significantly more advanced trading rules will be introduced over the coming weeks with the newer Machine Trading software development in full swing now.
Channel Trading Scenarios for this Week on the Model Shown on Algorithmic Model:
Follow the red circle targets up or down per the charts below.
THIS WEEK is more unclear than most in that channel trade could occur parallel to the channels noted on the charts below.
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Jan 13 1208 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Jan 13 1208 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Dwon channel scenario. Jan 13 1210 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Dwon channel scenario. Jan 13 1210 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Gen 1 and Gen 2 Algorithmic Oil Trading Machine Driven Model Development.
Crude Oil Day-Trading Chart Signals. 1 minute time. Nov 6 1241 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #Chart
Crude Oil Swing Trade Charting.
Monthly Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart. Jan 13 859 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
On the widest time-frame this monthly crude oil chart seems to hold support and resistance zones at diagonal Fibonacci (outside quad) trend lines and horizontal Fibonacci (mid quad) lines. The timing cycle vertical lines (green dotted) seem to be in play especially when you fractal the time frames down.
Trade is currently testing upside of 50 MA on monthly chart.
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart. Jan 13 859 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart – added support resistance markers and trading box. Jan 13 922 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Lead Trader trading note: If I had this chart in recent trade I would have added to my DWT short when trade touched the lower TL line and trading box support area. I really like this monthly structured charting.
If you are swing trading crude oil I see no reason not to follow the support and resistance areas of this chart for swing trading using appropriate sizing flow at each decision.
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart – added support resistance markers and trading box. Jan 13 922 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Weekly Crude Oil Chart(s):
Dating back to 2002, 13 of 14 major time cycles on weekly crude oil chart structure seen trend reversal to some extent or another #Oil #OOTT #TimeCycles FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT
Dating back to 2002, 13 of 14 major time cycles on weekly crude oil chart structure seen trend reversal to some extent or another #Oil #OOTT #TimeCycles FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT
May 13, 2018 chart post with important notes:
Oil retrace probability high, historically #timecycle Notes.
Crude Oil. Weekly trend-line chart. Dec 17 403 AM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #OIL #trading
Daily Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Daily Chart MACD still up with price on support of trading box with 50 MA test above Jan 13 1057 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Lots going on with this daily oil charting. Price bounced near that large trend line down-trending from previous time cycle (dotted gray) and near bottom of trading quad. Now testing 50 MA with reconfirmation of MACD. Bullish with an overhead test is the bottom line.
Crude Oil 30 Min Simple Algorithmic Chart Model Nov 19 434 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points (currently represented in red below on our conventional charting).
Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable.Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Recent Live Crude Oil Trade Alerts (sample signals):
See recent special oil reports, private alert Twitter feed and/or Discord private member oil chat room for many more examples.
Jan 13 – Recent trade alerts will be updated soon in more detail.
Machine trading crude oil with EPIC Oil Algorithm at open #Oil #TradingAlerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO #OOTT
Personal scalp trade when futures opened Tues night in crude oil $CL_F $USO #OOTT #OilTradeAlerts
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
Premarket Reporting: Per lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day – they are a way for our team to communicate with our member clients and update market conditions when time allows).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
Jan 8 – A number of trading strategy posts were sent to members recently. Please review.
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
Wednesday Jan 9 – EIA day, this will be interesting to see if the move in overnight oil futures is supported post EIA. We want a pull back to add to DWT short swing and establish structure for the daytrading of this possible reversal in trend. If you haven’t read the related reports for a possible reversal please do so. If you need access codes for historical posts on blog please email Jen a list that you require.
Would like to see small short term pull back in markets and then go in to May 2019 per my reporting in to end of December.
The reporting for this new time cycle will start tonight. Dig deep, you will thank yourself on the other side of this 6 months later.
Tuesday Jan 8 – Today in to EIA is the final watch on market structure that we need and we’ll start producing the structured trading range reports for the next 6 months. 24 hours of patience. Then its go time. I think we have it nailed down. Please watch those mid day review videos so you are in the know before we go. Really really important.
Monday Jan 7 – Two days to let market structure settle and the report flow for the next six month time cycles starts. #patience #caution.
Fri Jan 4 – If Fed pauses hikes and US-China trade relations improve oil should run in to May targets oil bundle members have (especially if OPEC cuts remain in play), the markets should run up in to May. Gold, Silver, VIX, DXY and Bitcoin may (are likely) to get soft and equities will be a stock pickers environment (traded properly within instrument structure) during that period (Q1 2019). Generally this is how it looks currently. But yet to be seen in to next week forward – this is one scenario. Reporting and alerts (either way) will become very active as next week rolls out and in to next 6 months. We will have the structure of trade for our coverage (the algorithm models and swing platform) so that we can trade either scenarios (up or down in each, including swing trading).
Market Observation:
Markets as of 7:48 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 95.90, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 50.73, Gold $GLD trading 1281.35, Silver $SLV trading 15.61, $SPY 257.17 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 4008.00, $VIX 20.3 and NatGas 3.019.
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: AAPL, MS, BAC, TLRY, FL & more –
News:
Oil rises 2 percent on U.S.-China trade talk optimism – SI
$AAPL: WEDBUSH SAYS SERVICES BUSINESS, POISED TO EXCEED $50 BILLION IN FY20, WILL BE ULTIMATE DRIVER FOR NEXT PHASE OF APPLE GROWTH STORY
LATEST: U.S.-listed shares of Fiat Chrysler up about 3.2 percent premarket after @Reuters report says company nearing U.S. diesel emissions settlement. Read more:0 https://reut.rs/2CWntg8
$NEO (+7.5% pre) NeoGenomics (NEO) Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600 – SI
Recent SEC Filings / Insiders:
Recent IPO’s, Private Placements, Mergers:
Don’t forget the pump- steins ala no secondaries
U.S. Government Shutdown Freezes IPO Market, Imperiling Expectations for 2019
Don't forget the pump- steins ala no secondaries
U.S. Government Shutdown Freezes IPO Market, Imperiling Expectations for 2019https://t.co/PiArRGejwI
Trade Set-ups, Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Open and Closed Trades:
Refer to date at top left of each chart (charts can be carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded decision to decision process – when trade set-up fails cut position fast. Leg in to winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide a framework to trade (chart structure enables a trader to set stops where a trade has failed or leg in to winners and trim winners). Purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of a trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy (which should be harnessed in your rules based process).
Possible reversal in oil trend on the daily chart. What a move. #Oil #Trading
Possible reversal in oil trend on the daily chart. What a move. #Oil #Trading
Test chart for machine sizing – in a turn up red more important support and resistance $CL_F $WTI $USOIL #Oil
Machine trading crude oil with EPIC Oil Algorithm at premarket open. Tues 4:30 price target hit perfect also from weekend reporting #Oil #TradingAlerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO #OOTT
Machine trading day today FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #premarket #OOTT
Our machine trading was making money today, but as a human trader that was no easy trading session in oil. Even the machine trading had some cuts (small) but won over no problem. #oil #machinetrading $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO
Our machine trading was making money today, but as a human trader that was no easy trading session in oil. Even the machine trading had some cuts (small) but won over no problem. #oil#machinetrading$CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USOpic.twitter.com/tE6JDg8hZS
Where can you find a trading setup that executes for a 150+ tick day trade in crude oil with back tested win side probability 90%. Test it and tell us we’re wrong. Member report below. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OIL #trading #OOTT
Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:
-China and the U.S. coordinate messaging as trade talks end on optimism -Bullard warns of a U.S. recession if the Fed keeps raising rates -Fed minutes for December’s unanimous rate hike are due today Here’s a rundown of your top economic news
-China and the U.S. coordinate messaging as trade talks end on optimism -Bullard warns of a U.S. recession if the Fed keeps raising rates -Fed minutes for December's unanimous rate hike are due today Here's a rundown of your top economic newshttps://t.co/57MhiWdSJQ
#5Things -Trade optimism -Shutdown rattles on -Oil over $50 -Markets rise -Central bank news https://bloom.bg/2FiAmTA
Here comes the reversal of last year’s flight to cash. Investors pulled $745 million yesterday from Vanguard’s $27.2 billion short-term bond ETF, the fund’s biggest one-day withdrawal in its history. $BSV
Here comes the reversal of last year's flight to cash. Investors pulled $745 million yesterday from Vanguard's $27.2 billion short-term bond ETF, the fund's biggest one-day withdrawal in its history. $BSVpic.twitter.com/tx8ewqFXDk
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channeland at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
Study:
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
January 8, 2019 Market Trading Strategies from Mid Day Review in the Main Trading Room With Lead Trader.
Voice starts at 5:55 on video.
A very quick overview of what we are watching in the general markets (details in recent videos of each algorithm sent out to members).
Because we are structured time cycle inflection traders we were watching for the end of the large time cycle late December (holidays had to pass), a few days in to new year (yesterday and today) to let the markets settle so there are no surprises. The only two other things are EIA and China USA trade talks (trade talks not a big issue because structure will be structure either way – support and resistance areas of trading zones).
So tonight and especially in to tomorrow post EIA you can expect the reporting flow to increase through the next six months. And as stated before, the trading for swing, daytrading and algorithms will pick up considerably also.
If you are unclear about what I am communicating please review all recent reporting.
In an effort to provide trading guidance to our members on a regular basis and in the spirit of operating a transparent trading service, my letter to members below should provide clarity on our goals for 2019 and how we see the markets shaping up for trade.
2017 and 2018 Market Guidance Review.
Prior to the election we signaled bullish on equities and had a fantastic six months post election with huge returns. Then consistently our returns have softened and the last quarter returns have been less than 40% (if calculated on an annual basis) – specific to no algorithm trades. So we went from 400% to 40% since the election (again, if you calculated various time frames based on annual basis).
Late June of 2018 we started signalling a slow down in equities and our alerts and swing trading publications slowed, the market did in fact turn down. However, the end of that time cycle is here now.
Our time cycle work with instrument structure has been by far our highest probability guidance.
2019 Market Guidance Overview.
The list below coincides with our algorithm models and swing trading.
At this point, the time cycle inflection looks as follows;
SPY / equity markets bullish in to early May 2019 (some sectors will do better than others – hence our theme based approach to swing trade reporting and alerts in to 2019) with possibility for more frequent volatility spikes.
Oil bullish in to early May 2019.
VIX bearish in to early May 2019 however (as above) we see probability of VIX spikes very high.
Gold and Silver to hold moderate with likely pressured trade to bearish side.
Bitcoin as with Gold and Silver.
US Dollar DXY to come under bearish pressure.
If the above plays out as we expect then come mid May 2019 there is a high likelihood that the opposite for everything listed above (with possibly the exception being DXY) will be in play.
HOWEVER, IT IS CRITICAL to be aware that the guidance above can flip with the markets. Geopolitical risk is rampant right now. Our reporting depth will be significant for this reason. The instrument structure will be the focus and time frame of trade key to each structure. Stay flexible to the market inflections and trade the instrument structure (support and resistance therein) to your chosen time frame.
Reporting and Trade Alerts in the Next Time Cycle.
The algorithm and swing trading reports will all be updated and distributed between Tuesday Jan 8 – 15 2019 to allow for two days of market action (this Monday and Tuesday) in to this new time cycle (post holiday).
There will be follow up reporting to approximately Jan 23rd that will focus on instrument structure (trading ranges on different time frames) for the algorithm models and swing trade equities we follow and then intensive thereafter through six month time cycle.
The deep dive we will be doing is for our trading on different time frames (swing trade and day trading) – you will find our trading to be significantly more active than the previous six months. This will include the machine trading in oil.
I should point out here also that the swing trade reporting and trades will be selective / theme based as we see a stock pickers six months next.
2018 / 2019 Work in Progress List.
We do have some team WIP left over from 2018 that will be cleaned up in January (it is nominal clerical type stuff for the most part). Some of the list is below:
Rules based machine trading protocol for oil to be published soon. This has been difficult to publish because our learning curve has been parabolic (the more you know about how an instrument trades the more you know that you didn’t know prior).
Our learning curve is starting to level out now so this will be released soon.
Machine trading signals to be fed in to main trading room (initially manually then auto when API integration complete).
For now I will be verbally feeding these in to the live trading room, however, Jeremy is working on the API soon for automation.
New pricing to be published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
Early in 2019 there will be a price increase on all services (when everything is updated).
Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
This will occur with the deep dive we are doing over next month in reporting initiative.
Trading Profit Loss to be Published for Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
Previously recorded Trading Boot Camp Event videos to become available on Compound Trading website.
Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
1 day Boot Camps for each of the seven trading models and swing / daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
We wanted to do this late 2018 but time didn’t allow, we’re targeting Feb 2019.
3 day Cabarete trading boot camp to be announced for Feb / Mar ish 2019.
Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).
Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).
2019 Platform Normalization (copied from last member update)
In year one our goal was to simply get lift to our basic trading service platform and that was accomplished.
In year two (2018) our goal was to develop the software for machine trading to the oil model and bring forward various other development and that has been accomplished (it has been much more work than we expected and we are just there).
In year three (2019) our focus will be to normalizing our trading services platform in the first 6 months. Our focus also will be toward trading for profit and building our learning centers for our trading community. In the latter 6 months we will turn our focus back to software development with coding BTC and SPY at minimum. The difference will be that we expect to have staff in each area of the platform so that areas of service are not interrupted (stretched) with a start up staff size.
In summary, this means that we are cleaning up our work in progress from 2018 and going in to 2019 our service will be hyper focused on trading, reporting, trade alerts and the development of learning systems for our membership base.
The time cycle starting in to the new year is significant in size in global markets and we intend to capitalize on the opportunity this brings.
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